The Country 16/04/26: Peter Newbold talks to Jamie Mackay

The GM of PGG Wrightson Real Estate takes his monthly look at the state of the rural market. And despite the Middle East crisis, the market remains largely buoyant, especially for dairy and kiwifruit. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Monthly here on the country we have a look at
the state of the rural landmarket with the team from
PGG Rights and just like runs the livestock division and
also the real estate division. Peter Newbold, first question for you, Peter. Surely,
and this is a question and a statement all rolled
into one. Surely there must be some effect from the
Middle East crisis on the landmarket in terms of buyer confidence.

Speaker 2 (00:26):
You're one hundred percent correctly, Jamie. It hasn't stalled it.
It's just slowed it and probably put people in two minds.
So definitely things have yees stalled somewhat. They're still transaction
saving place. And I think what we're just starting to
see now as winter is rare we are coming in

(00:48):
is that some will or have we'll just move there
to spring. So I think we'll see more listings come
in the spring, and I think we'll see more activity
if the Middle East sort of sorts itself out. But
aren't your question. Definitely it has put a little bit
of an edge on transactions over the last six to eight.

Speaker 1 (01:09):
Weeks, and yet we've got such optimism out there, especially
like in the dairy market, and I know that the
keyw fruit thing is running hot at the moment as well.

Speaker 2 (01:19):
Yeah, well you know yourself when you get out into
rural you know, nine nine percent of them are in
a good space, and they should be with the returns
they're getting. But I think what is clear is that
they're just being a little bit more cautious on what
they do and how they spend their money at the
moment with what's going on off shore. But definitely, you know,

(01:39):
dairy and horticulture and part of the sheet and beef
is still very solid if you look out and you
see what's transacting at the moment.

Speaker 1 (01:47):
Are you still short on dairy listings because a month
ago when we chatted, you said you if you get one,
you sell one. You're literally begging for them.

Speaker 2 (01:55):
Yeah. Look, nothing's changed in that space, and as as
we call the end of the season now, basically what's
on hand will be sold and I think we'll see
another increase again in the spring, definitely, And that's the
feeling we've got now, and that's I think with a
lot of rule sales. But yeah, definitely we could do

(02:16):
with more of them. And that's just because the outlook
and dairy looks fantastic. And again that's the same with
sheet and beef and hot.

Speaker 1 (02:24):
Really talk to me about Kiwi fruit.

Speaker 2 (02:27):
Yeah, it's interesting. You know, there was a quiet patch
for a few years, but it's just starting to come
back into its own. It's really clear that quality properties
are selling very quickly. You know, there's even examples there
that have been on the old website a couple of
days and they're gone. The other interesting observation there is

(02:49):
that we're seeing interest from outside the traditional Kiwi thread industry,
and that's quite apparent at the moment, and so people
are looking at it as a lot long term investment
or an option to what they're currently doing. So yeah,
big change there, and there's probably a shortage of stock

(03:10):
if I look at it. Look at it at the moment.

Speaker 1 (03:11):
I'm hearing dairy farmers are using some of their fonterra funds,
the payout funds, the capital repayment funds to buy he
refruit farms.

Speaker 2 (03:20):
Yeah, they would be in that group definitely. And I
think the other thing about that, I know the payments
coming through this week, I think we'll see some of that.
You know, some of those moneys have probably already been spent,
but I think we'll see some real activity as we
come into those warmer months again with the balance of
those funds.

Speaker 1 (03:39):
Now, I know I didn't hear the interview, but earlier
in the show we had a fantastic chat with Tane
Randall about all sorts of things, but forestry was one
of them. Carbon forestry was another. Now, what's happening in
the forestry market at the moment because the actual returns
it is tough, and this fuel crisis is hitting the
forestry industry big time. What are you seeing out there?

Speaker 2 (04:02):
To be brutally honest, we're not seeing a lot of activity.
And that's been like it for the last few months.
And you know, when I speak to those in the field,
they don't see a lot of activity moving forward. So yeah,
definitely you go back a couple of years where it
was it was all go. Definitely that's reverse Now. I
think what we might see over time as well. You've

(04:24):
got the odd properties which will you know, I guess
put a few trees in blocks that are uneconomic, But definitely,
as a rule it's definitely quieted off.

Speaker 1 (04:34):
Yeah, So the carbon farming thing is yesterday's news in
terms of good pastoral land going into forestry.

Speaker 2 (04:41):
Now, which I think is a good thing.

Speaker 1 (04:43):
Jamie, you won't get an argument from me. Peter Newbolt
out of PGG rights and thank you very much for
your time. Maybe when we chat in a month's time,
Trump will have sorted out the Middle East. I'm not
holding the bread

Speaker 2 (04:55):
Let's hope so