July 2, 2026 • 6 mins
Earth Sciences New Zealand principal scientist Chris Brandolino discusses El Niño.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Weather on the country with Fiji where happiness comes naturally.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Yep, Mono Turvis could do with a what a Fiji
in happiness coming naturally.
Speaker 1 (00:11):
Without a doubt.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
And then we hear the term al Nino Chris Brandolino,
Earth Science, New Zealand. I suppose Chris, can you just
give us a very quick summation for those who still
struggle with what el nino actually means?
Speaker 1 (00:25):
Yeah? Sure, Look, al nino is a climate driver. I
think the given analogy al Ninho is macro economics. So
imagine the official cash rate being dropped or changed by
one hundred basis points. That's a huge you know, it's
a huge change. And this is the same thing. This
is a huge al nino. But that that is a
(00:45):
macro so that may take time to filter through and
effect of micro what happens on farm people's mortgages, businesses,
things like that. So al nino is something that sort
of gives us better odds for certain comes. It's a
climate driver, so it's in the Pacific Ocean. And the
way we experience al nino here in New Zealand is
(01:07):
through what's called a teleconnection. So a teleconnection is something
that that's far away, but that has connections to where
you are because of jet stream patterns and things of
that nature. So that's sort of the very high level
explanation of al Nino is good and bad, with it
more bad, I mean, these different things for different people.
(01:28):
Specifically here in New Zealand, it tends to accentuate extremes,
so probably more bad than good for most people. And
so things like more westerly winds now Our weather typically
comes from the west, but what this allows for al
Nino is more persistently westerly winds also and more importantly
(01:51):
potentially Hamish stronger, so we tend to find really strong winds.
And I think in this again, this is longer, as
if we have time, I'll explain why this is longer,
or I'll give it example how this is longer. We're
talking about springtime. We're talking maybe even August potentially, but
really August and beyond springtime, especially into summer. So this
(02:11):
isn't a weather forecast. This is not next week, which,
by the way, sidebark could be some really heavy rain
next week from Kaikota up to Marlborough, maybe a wider
rap in Wellington, so we'll bookmark that. But this is
something that those westerly winds could be quite disruptive, so irrigators,
people on farm we need to pay attention. We got
time to watch that. Westerly winds mean more rain for
(02:32):
the west coast of the South Island, so Fjordland, hot Oki, Tika,
over Tour, maybe Graymouth, even Queenstown, Southland. Those areas have
a higher chance for rainfall that could be more than usual,
if not excessive, maybe flooding rainfall events. Again we're talking
springtime and beyond east coast of the South Island, Canterbury,
maybe Eastern Otago toward Dunners over toward Marlborough, Gisney, Hawk's Bay,
(02:56):
Eastern Water, Rappa Dryness and also Cormandel, Northland, Auckland. History
tells us those eras I just mentioned have a much
higher risk for dryness. But every elminus different hame like
some elminos you'll get wetness in Northland and some alminos
you have super dry conditions across the entire country. So
we know the average outcome, but no alminos average. So
(03:18):
we this is what we'll be updating things and kind
of fine tuning things again in a bit more granular
So that's as we look farther ahead toward August and
especially springtime, September and beyond. So this is kind of
a longer range outlook, right.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
Yeah, Historically, though Nino doesn't fail to deliver, it does
it in terms of what we might you know, fearing
at least preparing to fear for the worst. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
Look, as I've been saying to people, you're farmers, know this.
I mean, I'm not gonna tell about the fuck eggs here,
but you're much better off having a plan and not
needing it than needing a plant not having it. So
think about where. Hey, look, we talk about drying its,
but for some farmers in Southland, it really could be
too much rain for the spring season. So and speak
can have too much rain. As I said, we're gonna
have to watch the northeastern part of the South Island,
(04:04):
so near Kaikota hand their springs northbound to Marlboro, maybe
lower North Island. It's a bit iffy, but that era
could see some potentially very heavy rainfall Monday night, Tuesday,
Wednesday morning the next week, we got to watch for
the risk of flooding, and that rain could impact Hawk's
Bay as well. Middle and Ladder portion of next week
with some potentially heavy rain. So even though we're talking
(04:27):
about dryness in the long term Hamish for spring for
the eastern part of the North Island, the eastern part
of the South Island, and the short term it actually
could be too much rain that could be problematic. So
lot going on in the in the weather space which
keeps me employed and keeps me talking, that's for sure.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
Yeah, and gee, we don't need it in the southern
water rapid because gee, that was a fear o a dog.
Speaker 1 (04:51):
Oh my goodness. Yeah, And so that's one thing that
we're mindful of is that. Look, it's one thing to
have a bad rain event or a bad weather event,
which really you know, creates the impacts, but then if
you have another one not too far after that, it's
a kick in the guts. So hopefully that doesn't happen,
but I do think it's worth monitoring. Course met Service
will be on top of that with watches and warnings.
(05:11):
It's needed as we get through the weekend. Now ahead
of that, this weekend itself, there's going to be a
good drop of rain in the aforementioned Fiordlands, Northern Southland
and West coast of the of the South Island, so
a good drop of rain will fall there this weekend
and that rain will move north as we go through
the weekend. And look, do we have time for a
quick stat for you?
Speaker 2 (05:32):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (05:32):
Right, are you ready for this?
Speaker 2 (05:35):
Ready go?
Speaker 1 (05:35):
So here we go. June twenty twenty six was the
warmest June on record in New Zealand. It was it
beat twenty twenty one. So out of one hundred and
twenty or thirty June's since nineteen oh nine, I believe
when records began, this was the warmest. Christ Church had
their warmest June on record as well in christ Church.
(05:58):
What's impressive there. Record let's go back to eighteen sixty three,
so we're not talking just a couple of years ago.
That's one hundred and sixty odd years. So it was
a very warm June, Warmerstan record, and so we're off
to a warm start for the summer seas or for
the summer season for the winter season.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
Great stuff, fantastic stat there, and thank you for all
the great information and the explanation of Elmino. The Chris
Brandolina from Earth Science New Zealand
Weather on the country with Fiji where happiness comes naturally.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Yep, Mono Turvis could do with a what a Fiji
in happiness coming naturally.
Speaker 1 (00:11):
Without a doubt.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
And then we hear the term al Nino Chris Brandolino,
Earth Science, New Zealand. I suppose Chris, can you just
give us a very quick summation for those who still
struggle with what el nino actually means?
Speaker 1 (00:25):
Yeah? Sure, Look, al nino is a climate driver. I
think the given analogy al Ninho is macro economics. So
imagine the official cash rate being dropped or changed by
one hundred basis points. That's a huge you know, it's
a huge change. And this is the same thing. This
is a huge al nino. But that that is a
(00:45):
macro so that may take time to filter through and
effect of micro what happens on farm people's mortgages, businesses,
things like that. So al nino is something that sort
of gives us better odds for certain comes. It's a
climate driver, so it's in the Pacific Ocean. And the
way we experience al nino here in New Zealand is
(01:07):
through what's called a teleconnection. So a teleconnection is something
that that's far away, but that has connections to where
you are because of jet stream patterns and things of
that nature. So that's sort of the very high level
explanation of al Nino is good and bad, with it
more bad, I mean, these different things for different people.
(01:28):
Specifically here in New Zealand, it tends to accentuate extremes,
so probably more bad than good for most people. And
so things like more westerly winds now Our weather typically
comes from the west, but what this allows for al
Nino is more persistently westerly winds also and more importantly
(01:51):
potentially Hamish stronger, so we tend to find really strong winds.
And I think in this again, this is longer, as
if we have time, I'll explain why this is longer,
or I'll give it example how this is longer. We're
talking about springtime. We're talking maybe even August potentially, but
really August and beyond springtime, especially into summer. So this
(02:11):
isn't a weather forecast. This is not next week, which,
by the way, sidebark could be some really heavy rain
next week from Kaikota up to Marlborough, maybe a wider
rap in Wellington, so we'll bookmark that. But this is
something that those westerly winds could be quite disruptive, so irrigators,
people on farm we need to pay attention. We got
time to watch that. Westerly winds mean more rain for
(02:32):
the west coast of the South Island, so Fjordland, hot Oki, Tika,
over Tour, maybe Graymouth, even Queenstown, Southland. Those areas have
a higher chance for rainfall that could be more than usual,
if not excessive, maybe flooding rainfall events. Again we're talking
springtime and beyond east coast of the South Island, Canterbury,
maybe Eastern Otago toward Dunners over toward Marlborough, Gisney, Hawk's Bay,
(02:56):
Eastern Water, Rappa Dryness and also Cormandel, Northland, Auckland. History
tells us those eras I just mentioned have a much
higher risk for dryness. But every elminus different hame like
some elminos you'll get wetness in Northland and some alminos
you have super dry conditions across the entire country. So
we know the average outcome, but no alminos average. So
(03:18):
we this is what we'll be updating things and kind
of fine tuning things again in a bit more granular
So that's as we look farther ahead toward August and
especially springtime, September and beyond. So this is kind of
a longer range outlook, right.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
Yeah, Historically, though Nino doesn't fail to deliver, it does
it in terms of what we might you know, fearing
at least preparing to fear for the worst. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
Look, as I've been saying to people, you're farmers, know this.
I mean, I'm not gonna tell about the fuck eggs here,
but you're much better off having a plan and not
needing it than needing a plant not having it. So
think about where. Hey, look, we talk about drying its,
but for some farmers in Southland, it really could be
too much rain for the spring season. So and speak
can have too much rain. As I said, we're gonna
have to watch the northeastern part of the South Island,
(04:04):
so near Kaikota hand their springs northbound to Marlboro, maybe
lower North Island. It's a bit iffy, but that era
could see some potentially very heavy rainfall Monday night, Tuesday,
Wednesday morning the next week, we got to watch for
the risk of flooding, and that rain could impact Hawk's
Bay as well. Middle and Ladder portion of next week
with some potentially heavy rain. So even though we're talking
(04:27):
about dryness in the long term Hamish for spring for
the eastern part of the North Island, the eastern part
of the South Island, and the short term it actually
could be too much rain that could be problematic. So
lot going on in the in the weather space which
keeps me employed and keeps me talking, that's for sure.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
Yeah, and gee, we don't need it in the southern
water rapid because gee, that was a fear o a dog.
Speaker 1 (04:51):
Oh my goodness. Yeah, And so that's one thing that
we're mindful of is that. Look, it's one thing to
have a bad rain event or a bad weather event,
which really you know, creates the impacts, but then if
you have another one not too far after that, it's
a kick in the guts. So hopefully that doesn't happen,
but I do think it's worth monitoring. Course met Service
will be on top of that with watches and warnings.
(05:11):
It's needed as we get through the weekend. Now ahead
of that, this weekend itself, there's going to be a
good drop of rain in the aforementioned Fiordlands, Northern Southland
and West coast of the of the South Island, so
a good drop of rain will fall there this weekend
and that rain will move north as we go through
the weekend. And look, do we have time for a
quick stat for you?
Speaker 2 (05:32):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (05:32):
Right, are you ready for this?
Speaker 2 (05:35):
Ready go?
Speaker 1 (05:35):
So here we go. June twenty twenty six was the
warmest June on record in New Zealand. It was it
beat twenty twenty one. So out of one hundred and
twenty or thirty June's since nineteen oh nine, I believe
when records began, this was the warmest. Christ Church had
their warmest June on record as well in christ Church.
(05:58):
What's impressive there. Record let's go back to eighteen sixty three,
so we're not talking just a couple of years ago.
That's one hundred and sixty odd years. So it was
a very warm June, Warmerstan record, and so we're off
to a warm start for the summer seas or for
the summer season for the winter season.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
Great stuff, fantastic stat there, and thank you for all
the great information and the explanation of Elmino. The Chris
Brandolina from Earth Science New Zealand
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