July 21, 2026 • 5 mins
Rabobank’s senior agricultural analyst also comments on the GDT auction as well as Rabobank’s 2026 World Dairy Map, which shows New Zealand remaining the world’s largest single-country dairy exporter.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
She is a senior ag analyst for Rabobank. We've already
had Andrew Murray's take on the Global Dairy Trade ouction.
I'm going to get a quick commentary or some quick
commentary from Emma Higgins and then Emma, I'm very excited
to look at your world dairy map. But up one
point five percent, skim, milk powder going pretty well, recovering
two point eight percent. What did you make of last
(00:22):
night's GDT auction.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
I thought it was a good one in the sense
that we saw some buying coming back, and after three
consecutives declines, obviously got to set it index bounce at
one point five percent. So do you see maybe that
those lower prices that we saw over the last couple
of actions had attracted some of that demand back to
the market. And I think it's good to see that
(00:44):
the milk powders did the heavy lifting as well. Homeik
powder increased one point six skim rose almost three percent,
and this is important obviously because of the way that
the farm gate milk prices calculated, So you know, maybe
we just need to be keeping up powdered.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
I wanted to do the heavy lifting, as you put it,
about your World Dairy Map, but I couldn't because my
lunch was cut by Mike Hosking. You traitor, Emma, you
turned up on his show. I thought I got first
bite at the cherry with these Rabobank press releases.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
Well, you know what, I had to keep you on
your toes. And sometimes I'm not super appreciative of all
the ribbing you give me, so you know it's tit
for tat.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
You pick the battles you can win. And I also,
I'm fully respectful of the food chain. And here it
endsz me on news talks 'b I'm well below the
Hosk on that, so I've just got to take my place.
The interesting thing about the World Dairy Map is that
we still remain the world's largest single country dairy exporter.
Of course, the EU block is the biggest exporter, but
(01:47):
not by that much.
Speaker 2 (01:49):
Yeah, that's right. We have maintained our single single exporting
advantage of WEC For a small little country, we pack
a lot of punch. Almost one and every five kilegrams
of dairy that's exported comes from this part of the world,
and we've maintained some relatively steady market share. I would
think given that the pie has grown when it comes
(02:12):
to global dairy trade, and like you say, Europe's actually
slipped back quite a bit actually, from thirty percent a
few years ago down to about twenty seven. So not
bad innings from New Zealand.
Speaker 1 (02:24):
Should we be concerned about the US ramping up dairy production?
Speaker 2 (02:29):
Well, I think that's the biggest highlight that came out
of doing all the data for this World Dairy map
is that the United States has absolutely grown its milk production.
We've talked about that a lot, Jamie, in terms of
how that's impacted on commodity prices. But what's also happening
is they're tuning those extra volumes of milk into particular cheese,
(02:52):
and a lot of that is heading export stage. We
saw that come through in twenty twenty five quite strongly,
and the data for twenty six looks like it's on
the same track. So the United States is certainly our
rising competitor to kick an eye on.
Speaker 1 (03:07):
Since twenty seventeen, cheese has delivered consistently strong growth. I'm
quoting you here, miss Higgins said, cementing its position as
the standout performer in the dairy complex. Because the powders
have sort of stayed level. It's been a real growth
in cheese. Should we be diverting more of our powders
to cheese?
Speaker 2 (03:27):
Look, I think it's really interesting, right because we have
added new cheese capacity in past years and so we
still play, you know, quite a strong cheese game, particularly
to some of our Asian markets. So when we think
about the export flows from the United States, a lot
of it does go across the border down into Mexico
(03:48):
as well as also breaching into some of the Southeast
Asian territory. But effectively, cheese has been the story because
China being the lead importer for a really long period
of time has moderated its growth. We felt the impacts
of that shift coming through in twenty twenty one quite
strongly in twenty twenty three as well, and so what
(04:09):
we've seen now is broadly steady imports from the Chinese perspective.
New Zealand plays a key role in that, and that
has been effectively underpinning the farm gatement price for you
know a long while.
Speaker 1 (04:22):
Now, quick final comment from you, are you concerned at
the prospects of more? And I know you will be
of more? Trump tariffs coming on, particularly for red meat
because you wear that hat at Rabobank as well.
Speaker 2 (04:34):
Yeah. Look, I think this has been talked about as
potentially happening for a while now. I think also as
producers and exports ready to be you know, thinking about this,
maybe is the new normal going forward? Is you know,
it's economic statecraft effectively, So it's powers looking to use
the tools that they have to effectively achieve some of
(04:58):
their national in goals. Tariffs are certainly one of those things.
And I think this is just going to be a
repeated theme that we're likely to see over the coming
next wee whales. So does it make it any easier
for exporters?
Speaker 1 (05:11):
No?
Speaker 2 (05:11):
Does it make it any easier for producers as well? No,
it just convolutes some of those signals that we receive
back at the farm gate, So not entirely helpful. But hey,
it is what it is, and we'll just continue to
control those controllables as we're talking about before.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
Damie Emma Higgins, thanks for your time. I'll forgive you
for betraying the country, not New Zealand, but the radio
show giving Hosk first spite of the cherry. We'll chat
again hopefully before Mike costing.
Speaker 2 (05:39):
Next time, I'll do my best.
She is a senior ag analyst for Rabobank. We've already
had Andrew Murray's take on the Global Dairy Trade ouction.
I'm going to get a quick commentary or some quick
commentary from Emma Higgins and then Emma, I'm very excited
to look at your world dairy map. But up one
point five percent, skim, milk powder going pretty well, recovering
two point eight percent. What did you make of last
(00:22):
night's GDT auction.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
I thought it was a good one in the sense
that we saw some buying coming back, and after three
consecutives declines, obviously got to set it index bounce at
one point five percent. So do you see maybe that
those lower prices that we saw over the last couple
of actions had attracted some of that demand back to
the market. And I think it's good to see that
(00:44):
the milk powders did the heavy lifting as well. Homeik
powder increased one point six skim rose almost three percent,
and this is important obviously because of the way that
the farm gate milk prices calculated, So you know, maybe
we just need to be keeping up powdered.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
I wanted to do the heavy lifting, as you put it,
about your World Dairy Map, but I couldn't because my
lunch was cut by Mike Hosking. You traitor, Emma, you
turned up on his show. I thought I got first
bite at the cherry with these Rabobank press releases.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
Well, you know what, I had to keep you on
your toes. And sometimes I'm not super appreciative of all
the ribbing you give me, so you know it's tit
for tat.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
You pick the battles you can win. And I also,
I'm fully respectful of the food chain. And here it
endsz me on news talks 'b I'm well below the
Hosk on that, so I've just got to take my place.
The interesting thing about the World Dairy Map is that
we still remain the world's largest single country dairy exporter.
Of course, the EU block is the biggest exporter, but
(01:47):
not by that much.
Speaker 2 (01:49):
Yeah, that's right. We have maintained our single single exporting
advantage of WEC For a small little country, we pack
a lot of punch. Almost one and every five kilegrams
of dairy that's exported comes from this part of the world,
and we've maintained some relatively steady market share. I would
think given that the pie has grown when it comes
(02:12):
to global dairy trade, and like you say, Europe's actually
slipped back quite a bit actually, from thirty percent a
few years ago down to about twenty seven. So not
bad innings from New Zealand.
Speaker 1 (02:24):
Should we be concerned about the US ramping up dairy production?
Speaker 2 (02:29):
Well, I think that's the biggest highlight that came out
of doing all the data for this World Dairy map
is that the United States has absolutely grown its milk production.
We've talked about that a lot, Jamie, in terms of
how that's impacted on commodity prices. But what's also happening
is they're tuning those extra volumes of milk into particular cheese,
(02:52):
and a lot of that is heading export stage. We
saw that come through in twenty twenty five quite strongly,
and the data for twenty six looks like it's on
the same track. So the United States is certainly our
rising competitor to kick an eye on.
Speaker 1 (03:07):
Since twenty seventeen, cheese has delivered consistently strong growth. I'm
quoting you here, miss Higgins said, cementing its position as
the standout performer in the dairy complex. Because the powders
have sort of stayed level. It's been a real growth
in cheese. Should we be diverting more of our powders
to cheese?
Speaker 2 (03:27):
Look, I think it's really interesting, right because we have
added new cheese capacity in past years and so we
still play, you know, quite a strong cheese game, particularly
to some of our Asian markets. So when we think
about the export flows from the United States, a lot
of it does go across the border down into Mexico
(03:48):
as well as also breaching into some of the Southeast
Asian territory. But effectively, cheese has been the story because
China being the lead importer for a really long period
of time has moderated its growth. We felt the impacts
of that shift coming through in twenty twenty one quite
strongly in twenty twenty three as well, and so what
(04:09):
we've seen now is broadly steady imports from the Chinese perspective.
New Zealand plays a key role in that, and that
has been effectively underpinning the farm gatement price for you
know a long while.
Speaker 1 (04:22):
Now, quick final comment from you, are you concerned at
the prospects of more? And I know you will be
of more? Trump tariffs coming on, particularly for red meat
because you wear that hat at Rabobank as well.
Speaker 2 (04:34):
Yeah. Look, I think this has been talked about as
potentially happening for a while now. I think also as
producers and exports ready to be you know, thinking about this,
maybe is the new normal going forward? Is you know,
it's economic statecraft effectively, So it's powers looking to use
the tools that they have to effectively achieve some of
(04:58):
their national in goals. Tariffs are certainly one of those things.
And I think this is just going to be a
repeated theme that we're likely to see over the coming
next wee whales. So does it make it any easier
for exporters?
Speaker 1 (05:11):
No?
Speaker 2 (05:11):
Does it make it any easier for producers as well? No,
it just convolutes some of those signals that we receive
back at the farm gate, So not entirely helpful. But hey,
it is what it is, and we'll just continue to
control those controllables as we're talking about before.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
Damie Emma Higgins, thanks for your time. I'll forgive you
for betraying the country, not New Zealand, but the radio
show giving Hosk first spite of the cherry. We'll chat
again hopefully before Mike costing.
Speaker 2 (05:39):
Next time, I'll do my best.
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