August 7, 2024 • 12 mins
THE BEST BITS IN A SILLIER PACKAGE (from Thursday's Mike Hosking Breakfast) But a Good Surprise?/Can We Just Make Some More Power, Please?/Stopping the Money Splash/Is the OCR Really Worth the Attention?
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:09):
You're listening to a podcast from News Talk SEDB. Follow
this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
The Rerap.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Okay, welcome to the Rewrap for Thursday, all the best
butts from the mic hosting breakfast on news Talks. He'd
beat in a sillier package. I am Glenhart and today
yet we're back on the dodgy power infrastructure again, aren't we.
Business is actually going out of business because that they
can't afford the power orang tamarigi.
Speaker 3 (00:49):
They can afford all sorts of things.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
They've been splashing money around, but it hasn't helped. And
we'll finish with some OCR talk.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
Because you know how entertaining that always is.
Speaker 2 (00:59):
But first up, yeah, job numbers a bit of a
surprise there, and it may or may not help when
when it comes to deciding that OCR that we're going
to talk about later on.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
Oh man, this stuff gives me a headache.
Speaker 4 (01:10):
Tell you what looks like we might have the same
problem as Australia. Australia a week or so back produced
too many jobs. In other words, the unemployment rate wasn't
as bad as they thought it might be, so things
were going a little bit better than many suspected. Fast
forward to Tuesday and Michelle Bullock, the Adrian Or of
Australia said, not only wasn't there going to be a
rate cut, there wasn't going to be one for quite
some time across the Tasman Samish thing happened here yesterday.
(01:33):
Four point six is not four point seven. Four point
seven was the estimate turned out to be not as
bad we need, bad, really bad for the governor to
look at cutting currently, like Australia, they are not cutting
any time soon. So once again we have reality, or
at least a chunk of reality, coming face to face
with theory and anecdote. Now the anecdote, any number of
anecdotes will tell your life is miserable in the labor market.
(01:55):
How many column inches have been dedicated this year to
work as mainly public servants being laid off, And yet
the number of four point six, although not what you
would like obviously, is barely catastrophic. Yes, inflation is trending down,
but not by as much as we need. Yes, people
are losing their jobs, but not as many as we need.
For every person who can tell you the story of
the closed door, the redundancy, the budget that doesn't quite stretch,
(02:18):
the airline ticket that's through the roof of council rate increase,
that's absurd. The stuff you can no longer do. I
can show you a governor who can tell you it
ain't as bad as you think, and certainly not as
bad enough to call an end to the monetary circus
that's been created all over the world. We are pawns
in a very big, very experimental game. And although the
US market went mental over job numbers, we can all
(02:40):
see that their reactionaries and the stuff that central banks
look at and react to is not as emotionally fruvolous
as what drives investors. But thirty three thousand people, thirty
three thousand people in the past year have lost their
jobs in this country, thirty three thousand real stories and
lives affected. But we need more, apparently, more misery, more
tightening in the great debate of how ugly it needs
(03:02):
to be for those screaming enough, Adrian says you're wrong.
Speaker 2 (03:07):
So that got some of our listeners thinking those comments,
and were back with some of those thoughts a.
Speaker 3 (03:13):
Little bit later on the rewrap. But let's just stick
with the jobs theme.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
For a little bit, because Mike isolated out a certain
problem group, problem children.
Speaker 4 (03:23):
In fact, the unemployment just quickly on the unemployment rate
fifteen to nineteen year olds. So certainly half of that
group fifteen to seventeen are barely out of high school,
so they're clearly underqualified. In fact, you could argue the
whole lot are underqualified. But when half of the jobs
lost in this country, and no surprise here, the moment
an economy contracts, it's the weakest, the newest, the youngest,
(03:45):
the earliest arrivors who go first. And what do you
do about that? Well, long term, you tell them to
stay at school longer and get some more qualifications and
pick a career path and do something more productive with
their lives. But it doesn't solve your problem. And it
may well to a degree, partially explain why things haven't
got uglier than they have. Because when you talk about spending,
(04:06):
when half the people unemployed are kids with let's be honest,
no money, then the rest of us do have the money.
Hence we're still spending. Hence the economy is not as
contracted as Adrian might like it to be.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
See, now, come on, you can't tell me you don't
also feel that headache starting to build behind the eyes
as Mike bashing all those numbers around shall we should
we just give that a little break for event and
come back to it and take a few deep breaths
and maybe a glass of water a rewrap. In the meantime,
a lot of discussion around power generation, not enough of it,
(04:42):
which is making it too expensive, which is putting businesses
out of business.
Speaker 3 (04:46):
How does that work, Mike?
Speaker 4 (04:47):
With the government deal to effectively subsidize the Teaway Points
smelter with chep electricity, given the amount of power they use,
has this had a negative flow and effect to other
business it's a very good question, yes, unquestionably, But it's
not about that. What it's about is the ability of
Nickel Or expressed it very well. It's the ability of
a country to produce the resources required to do business,
(05:07):
and not only do business, do more business. And so
twice now since that deal was signed, t Y have
been asked to cut back on power. That's not the
way to do business. I said this about a week
ago in the program. Asking people to do less is
not how you grow the economy. So yes, it's having
an effect, But then again if you look at the balance,
I e. T. Y aren't here at all doing nothing
(05:27):
because they've left the country, versus giving TY a good
deal because they use a tremendous amount of power. That's
just business at the end of the day. So technically, yes,
it has an effective course. It does, but don't you
want TY here employing people doing the aluminium adding to
the economy. What we actually want to do is, oh,
I don't know, produce enough power so the country works.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
I still think could we not just run an extension
cord to Australia or somewhere, borrow some load someone to
a ship from somewhere where they've got heaps. I mean,
I do agree with Mike that it's getting businesses to
stop doing business in order to keep the lights on.
Speaker 3 (06:09):
That's not the rewrap.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
He's great at actually spotting things out right, and he's
been doing it with Tamariki for quite some time now.
Speaker 4 (06:17):
You may have noticed in the past few weeks an
increasing amount of coverage has been given to people who
provide services to children as part of work there contract
to do for Tamareki. I think there's a story floating
around on our news service today as an observer. I've
noted that generally TV one and Radio New Zealand seem
to be particularly interested in the subject. The formula for
coverage is an age old one, and all media outlets
(06:38):
fall for it. Whoever has a problem fars out of
press release or cause a friendly journalist and lays out
their complaint. In this instance, the fear was that Orango
Tamariki were conducting a funding review, and there appeared to
be a belief correctly, as it turns out that money
was going to be stopped or withheld or withdrawn. Now
the sort of story plays well in the media. It's
sort of the it's the plucky little operator who's battled
(06:58):
away for years in the community providing a vital service
that should be well. Should it be stopped now would
lead to lord knows what sort of drama. That drama
was expressed on Tuesday Night News in the most graphic
of ways from one operator who said, quote, kids will
die now. This is easy news. It's lazy journalism. Of course,
finding upset people who don't like their money being cart
(07:19):
or stopped. It's not hard, especially when they've called you.
The other side of the story is now being told
by orangutamriiki who have laid there some of the wastage
that we're talking about. Quite apart from anything. We're talking
about half a billion dollars going to over five hundred providers.
That's well, it's an industry. It's a million dollars on
averager provider five hundred times plus over. Anyway, they've saved
(07:45):
so far one hundred and thirty odd million dollars because
some of them are undelivering, some of them had money
sitting in bank accounts doing nothing. This is the other
side of the story I've not heard until yesterday. Where's
the other side of the story being eh, so far
they've not only saved on spending going forward, they've clawed
back twenty two million dollars and expect that to go
higher as they crack down on things that weren't done.
Speaker 1 (08:06):
Now.
Speaker 4 (08:06):
This is not to say there aren't those who work
hard and do well, of course not. But it's the
old economic lesson when it comes to hands out for
free money. There is literally no limit if you don't
say no, and there is no end to a sad
story for a journo when reality not a check comes calling.
Speaker 2 (08:22):
So I think twenty twenty four is mark the year
Mike Hosking has been more critical of the rest of
the news media than ever before.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
Do you I certain? I wonder they must look at him.
Speaker 2 (08:36):
And when I say they, I mean, you know, people
in the news media who aren't Mike.
Speaker 3 (08:41):
They must they think, well, he's being mean to us.
Speaker 2 (08:45):
But then they also must think, man, he's so much
more successful than we are. And then there's a third
part of that equation. And I'm not sure that that
clicks in where they need to be thinking maybe we
should be more like him.
Speaker 3 (08:59):
No, that's a crazy thought. No, you don't want to
be like Mike.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
The re wrap right now, has that headaches have sided yet,
because if it has, go on to your hats.
Speaker 3 (09:09):
Grab your pan at hole. We're talking ocr again.
Speaker 4 (09:12):
My chapter thirty five years as a professional trader, having
worked investment banks in London, New York, Tokyo and Singapore,
I don't think I've ever seen such a transparent central bank.
The RB and Z said that interest rates would go
to five point five percent. They did. They said unemployment
would likely reach five point five It probably will, and
their inflation target has been clearly broadcast. It's the media
and poor economists whining and finger pointing that have muddy
(09:34):
the waters and confused what is a pretty clear developing situation.
I think that's probably what Brad Olsen was trying to
explain earlier on Wasn't It. What he's saying is that
as it currently stands, everything is going according to the
Reserve Bank, and it's what we've said on this program
a number of times before. Everything's going according to the
plan for the Reserve Bank. What we're seeing at the
moment is a realization for individuals and their stories and
(09:57):
circumstances and situations where they're screaming and going, wait, surely
this is bad enough, and the banks are going, wait
a minute, we're not lending enough money in the housing
market at the moment. Surely this is bad enough. And
we're seeing the unemployment rate. Oh, surely this is bad enough.
So you've got the interface and it's happening all over
the world, and you're right. I think where your argument
will fall apart is that I believe now that Adrian
(10:20):
or will go in probably October, and if not October,
certainly November. Because Brad also made the very good point,
and he's right. If they don't go in November. They
can't go to February. They don't have a meeting until February,
so you're going all away from October November through to
February before you can address the situation. And I would
argue personally that it's probably got to a point where
(10:41):
the Reserve Bank can now go tell you what we
did think next year, but we're wrong. Counter to that
is what I tried to explain yesterday is you've got
to take into account Adrian Or's ego and he's not
a man for backing down, and he's certainly not a
man to publicly state with clarity that he was wrong
and he misread it. And that's where Brad comes in.
I think Brad's read Adrian well. Hence they've not changed
(11:04):
their forecast until what basically the RB's saying still and
unless they change, bred's not change. And that's probably the
wise argument, and that's your argument as well. So it's
all fascinating, but the problem with it is it affects
each and every one of us, each and every day
between now and it's only August until October November, and
if we're wrong in October November, we're waiting till February
or March next year. And that's a lot of pain
(11:24):
in the ensuing period. And if you listen to what
Westpac said the other day, Q twos and negative territory,
Q three's and negative territory. So we're into another, which
by my account would make it the third recession we've
had post COVID. So once again you ask the question,
how bad does it happen to get?
Speaker 2 (11:41):
And I'm just going to keep repeating my mantrap. Just
ignore it, stop worrying about it so much. Everyone, It'll
come right eventually if you can hang on, hang on
and get on with everything.
Speaker 3 (11:58):
Yes, that's right. I'm adopting the put put your head
in the sand philosophy. How has that ever not worked?
I am Glen Hart.
Speaker 2 (12:06):
Everything's fine, and I'll see you back here again the Rerap.
Speaker 1 (12:16):
For more from News Talk st B, listen live on
air or online, and keep our shows with you wherever
you go with our podcasts on iHeartRadio.
You're listening to a podcast from News Talk SEDB. Follow
this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
The Rerap.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Okay, welcome to the Rewrap for Thursday, all the best
butts from the mic hosting breakfast on news Talks. He'd
beat in a sillier package. I am Glenhart and today
yet we're back on the dodgy power infrastructure again, aren't we.
Business is actually going out of business because that they
can't afford the power orang tamarigi.
Speaker 3 (00:49):
They can afford all sorts of things.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
They've been splashing money around, but it hasn't helped. And
we'll finish with some OCR talk.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
Because you know how entertaining that always is.
Speaker 2 (00:59):
But first up, yeah, job numbers a bit of a
surprise there, and it may or may not help when
when it comes to deciding that OCR that we're going
to talk about later on.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
Oh man, this stuff gives me a headache.
Speaker 4 (01:10):
Tell you what looks like we might have the same
problem as Australia. Australia a week or so back produced
too many jobs. In other words, the unemployment rate wasn't
as bad as they thought it might be, so things
were going a little bit better than many suspected. Fast
forward to Tuesday and Michelle Bullock, the Adrian Or of
Australia said, not only wasn't there going to be a
rate cut, there wasn't going to be one for quite
some time across the Tasman Samish thing happened here yesterday.
(01:33):
Four point six is not four point seven. Four point
seven was the estimate turned out to be not as
bad we need, bad, really bad for the governor to
look at cutting currently, like Australia, they are not cutting
any time soon. So once again we have reality, or
at least a chunk of reality, coming face to face
with theory and anecdote. Now the anecdote, any number of
anecdotes will tell your life is miserable in the labor market.
(01:55):
How many column inches have been dedicated this year to
work as mainly public servants being laid off, And yet
the number of four point six, although not what you
would like obviously, is barely catastrophic. Yes, inflation is trending down,
but not by as much as we need. Yes, people
are losing their jobs, but not as many as we need.
For every person who can tell you the story of
the closed door, the redundancy, the budget that doesn't quite stretch,
(02:18):
the airline ticket that's through the roof of council rate increase,
that's absurd. The stuff you can no longer do. I
can show you a governor who can tell you it
ain't as bad as you think, and certainly not as
bad enough to call an end to the monetary circus
that's been created all over the world. We are pawns
in a very big, very experimental game. And although the
US market went mental over job numbers, we can all
(02:40):
see that their reactionaries and the stuff that central banks
look at and react to is not as emotionally fruvolous
as what drives investors. But thirty three thousand people, thirty
three thousand people in the past year have lost their
jobs in this country, thirty three thousand real stories and
lives affected. But we need more, apparently, more misery, more
tightening in the great debate of how ugly it needs
(03:02):
to be for those screaming enough, Adrian says you're wrong.
Speaker 2 (03:07):
So that got some of our listeners thinking those comments,
and were back with some of those thoughts a.
Speaker 3 (03:13):
Little bit later on the rewrap. But let's just stick
with the jobs theme.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
For a little bit, because Mike isolated out a certain
problem group, problem children.
Speaker 4 (03:23):
In fact, the unemployment just quickly on the unemployment rate
fifteen to nineteen year olds. So certainly half of that
group fifteen to seventeen are barely out of high school,
so they're clearly underqualified. In fact, you could argue the
whole lot are underqualified. But when half of the jobs
lost in this country, and no surprise here, the moment
an economy contracts, it's the weakest, the newest, the youngest,
(03:45):
the earliest arrivors who go first. And what do you
do about that? Well, long term, you tell them to
stay at school longer and get some more qualifications and
pick a career path and do something more productive with
their lives. But it doesn't solve your problem. And it
may well to a degree, partially explain why things haven't
got uglier than they have. Because when you talk about spending,
(04:06):
when half the people unemployed are kids with let's be honest,
no money, then the rest of us do have the money.
Hence we're still spending. Hence the economy is not as
contracted as Adrian might like it to be.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
See, now, come on, you can't tell me you don't
also feel that headache starting to build behind the eyes
as Mike bashing all those numbers around shall we should
we just give that a little break for event and
come back to it and take a few deep breaths
and maybe a glass of water a rewrap. In the meantime,
a lot of discussion around power generation, not enough of it,
(04:42):
which is making it too expensive, which is putting businesses
out of business.
Speaker 3 (04:46):
How does that work, Mike?
Speaker 4 (04:47):
With the government deal to effectively subsidize the Teaway Points
smelter with chep electricity, given the amount of power they use,
has this had a negative flow and effect to other
business it's a very good question, yes, unquestionably, But it's
not about that. What it's about is the ability of
Nickel Or expressed it very well. It's the ability of
a country to produce the resources required to do business,
(05:07):
and not only do business, do more business. And so
twice now since that deal was signed, t Y have
been asked to cut back on power. That's not the
way to do business. I said this about a week
ago in the program. Asking people to do less is
not how you grow the economy. So yes, it's having
an effect, But then again if you look at the balance,
I e. T. Y aren't here at all doing nothing
(05:27):
because they've left the country, versus giving TY a good
deal because they use a tremendous amount of power. That's
just business at the end of the day. So technically, yes,
it has an effective course. It does, but don't you
want TY here employing people doing the aluminium adding to
the economy. What we actually want to do is, oh,
I don't know, produce enough power so the country works.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
I still think could we not just run an extension
cord to Australia or somewhere, borrow some load someone to
a ship from somewhere where they've got heaps. I mean,
I do agree with Mike that it's getting businesses to
stop doing business in order to keep the lights on.
Speaker 3 (06:09):
That's not the rewrap.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
He's great at actually spotting things out right, and he's
been doing it with Tamariki for quite some time now.
Speaker 4 (06:17):
You may have noticed in the past few weeks an
increasing amount of coverage has been given to people who
provide services to children as part of work there contract
to do for Tamareki. I think there's a story floating
around on our news service today as an observer. I've
noted that generally TV one and Radio New Zealand seem
to be particularly interested in the subject. The formula for
coverage is an age old one, and all media outlets
(06:38):
fall for it. Whoever has a problem fars out of
press release or cause a friendly journalist and lays out
their complaint. In this instance, the fear was that Orango
Tamariki were conducting a funding review, and there appeared to
be a belief correctly, as it turns out that money
was going to be stopped or withheld or withdrawn. Now
the sort of story plays well in the media. It's
sort of the it's the plucky little operator who's battled
(06:58):
away for years in the community providing a vital service
that should be well. Should it be stopped now would
lead to lord knows what sort of drama. That drama
was expressed on Tuesday Night News in the most graphic
of ways from one operator who said, quote, kids will
die now. This is easy news. It's lazy journalism. Of course,
finding upset people who don't like their money being cart
(07:19):
or stopped. It's not hard, especially when they've called you.
The other side of the story is now being told
by orangutamriiki who have laid there some of the wastage
that we're talking about. Quite apart from anything. We're talking
about half a billion dollars going to over five hundred providers.
That's well, it's an industry. It's a million dollars on
averager provider five hundred times plus over. Anyway, they've saved
(07:45):
so far one hundred and thirty odd million dollars because
some of them are undelivering, some of them had money
sitting in bank accounts doing nothing. This is the other
side of the story I've not heard until yesterday. Where's
the other side of the story being eh, so far
they've not only saved on spending going forward, they've clawed
back twenty two million dollars and expect that to go
higher as they crack down on things that weren't done.
Speaker 1 (08:06):
Now.
Speaker 4 (08:06):
This is not to say there aren't those who work
hard and do well, of course not. But it's the
old economic lesson when it comes to hands out for
free money. There is literally no limit if you don't
say no, and there is no end to a sad
story for a journo when reality not a check comes calling.
Speaker 2 (08:22):
So I think twenty twenty four is mark the year
Mike Hosking has been more critical of the rest of
the news media than ever before.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
Do you I certain? I wonder they must look at him.
Speaker 2 (08:36):
And when I say they, I mean, you know, people
in the news media who aren't Mike.
Speaker 3 (08:41):
They must they think, well, he's being mean to us.
Speaker 2 (08:45):
But then they also must think, man, he's so much
more successful than we are. And then there's a third
part of that equation. And I'm not sure that that
clicks in where they need to be thinking maybe we
should be more like him.
Speaker 3 (08:59):
No, that's a crazy thought. No, you don't want to
be like Mike.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
The re wrap right now, has that headaches have sided yet,
because if it has, go on to your hats.
Speaker 3 (09:09):
Grab your pan at hole. We're talking ocr again.
Speaker 4 (09:12):
My chapter thirty five years as a professional trader, having
worked investment banks in London, New York, Tokyo and Singapore,
I don't think I've ever seen such a transparent central bank.
The RB and Z said that interest rates would go
to five point five percent. They did. They said unemployment
would likely reach five point five It probably will, and
their inflation target has been clearly broadcast. It's the media
and poor economists whining and finger pointing that have muddy
(09:34):
the waters and confused what is a pretty clear developing situation.
I think that's probably what Brad Olsen was trying to
explain earlier on Wasn't It. What he's saying is that
as it currently stands, everything is going according to the
Reserve Bank, and it's what we've said on this program
a number of times before. Everything's going according to the
plan for the Reserve Bank. What we're seeing at the
moment is a realization for individuals and their stories and
(09:57):
circumstances and situations where they're screaming and going, wait, surely
this is bad enough, and the banks are going, wait
a minute, we're not lending enough money in the housing
market at the moment. Surely this is bad enough. And
we're seeing the unemployment rate. Oh, surely this is bad enough.
So you've got the interface and it's happening all over
the world, and you're right. I think where your argument
will fall apart is that I believe now that Adrian
(10:20):
or will go in probably October, and if not October,
certainly November. Because Brad also made the very good point,
and he's right. If they don't go in November. They
can't go to February. They don't have a meeting until February,
so you're going all away from October November through to
February before you can address the situation. And I would
argue personally that it's probably got to a point where
(10:41):
the Reserve Bank can now go tell you what we
did think next year, but we're wrong. Counter to that
is what I tried to explain yesterday is you've got
to take into account Adrian Or's ego and he's not
a man for backing down, and he's certainly not a
man to publicly state with clarity that he was wrong
and he misread it. And that's where Brad comes in.
I think Brad's read Adrian well. Hence they've not changed
(11:04):
their forecast until what basically the RB's saying still and
unless they change, bred's not change. And that's probably the
wise argument, and that's your argument as well. So it's
all fascinating, but the problem with it is it affects
each and every one of us, each and every day
between now and it's only August until October November, and
if we're wrong in October November, we're waiting till February
or March next year. And that's a lot of pain
(11:24):
in the ensuing period. And if you listen to what
Westpac said the other day, Q twos and negative territory,
Q three's and negative territory. So we're into another, which
by my account would make it the third recession we've
had post COVID. So once again you ask the question,
how bad does it happen to get?
Speaker 2 (11:41):
And I'm just going to keep repeating my mantrap. Just
ignore it, stop worrying about it so much. Everyone, It'll
come right eventually if you can hang on, hang on
and get on with everything.
Speaker 3 (11:58):
Yes, that's right. I'm adopting the put put your head
in the sand philosophy. How has that ever not worked?
I am Glen Hart.
Speaker 2 (12:06):
Everything's fine, and I'll see you back here again the Rerap.
Speaker 1 (12:16):
For more from News Talk st B, listen live on
air or online, and keep our shows with you wherever
you go with our podcasts on iHeartRadio.
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