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August 19, 2024 12 mins

THE BEST BITS IN A SILLIER PACKAGE (from Tuesday's Mike Hosking Breakfast) Polls Can Be Twisted/What Is a Code Black Anyway?/The Banks Are Broken/Joe Kicks it Off/An Expensive Decision

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Speaker 1 (00:09):
You're listening to a podcast from news Talk said be
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Speaker 2 (00:25):
Rewrap.

Speaker 3 (00:25):
Okay there, welcome to the Rewrap for Tuesday. All the best,
but it's from the mic asking breakfast on Newstalk ZIDB
in a sillier package. I am Glenn Hart and today
what's a code black? And why is it so dramatic?
We've got a banking report out? Is it any different
from the previous banking report that came out? The the

(00:47):
Democrats are having their big shindig this week, and so
wats in store there?

Speaker 2 (00:52):
And how are we ever going to get a second
half a crossing?

Speaker 3 (00:55):
And why is it costing so much in the meantime
when we haven't even started one before any of that?

Speaker 2 (01:00):
Oh, poll poles, lies and damn statistics.

Speaker 4 (01:05):
One pole tells us something last night, are not really
moving and another pole tells us something by being badly misrepresented.
Now the one news numbers last night show essentially the
government traveling well, most parties are stable. The Greens are
down a bit for obvious reasons, but it's all so
far within the margin of error. Really nothing's changed. What
that tells you is broadly couple of things. One, at
the stage of the electoral cycle, people don't pay as

(01:27):
much attention as they will be in eighteen months time,
and two, the government, with its level of support, is
doing basically what they said they would and most people
are pretty happy with it. The other pole was on
race relations. TV one promoted the fact only ten percent
think the government is improving them forty six percent think
they're damaging them. What they didn't give the appropriate prominence too,
was the fact that thirty seven percent think it's not

(01:49):
making any difference at all. In other words, despite all
the noise and hotty are being drummed up by the
radicals in the media, most of us aren't engaged because
nothing is really changing. So if you take the thirty
seven who see no change and the ten percent who
see an improvement, you've got forty seven, which is in
fact more people thinking things raither neutral were better as

(02:09):
opposed to the forty six percent who think they're worse,
which of course ties in with why the government numbers
overall haven't moved and their support remained strong. The so
called drama around Maori policy is not actually politicularly damaging
at all. You will note the numbers weren't presented that
way by the state run broadcast. A good question might
be why not what moves needles is the economy and

(02:30):
on that we might be in for an improvement, and
if we are, what you will then see in the
polling is polling numbers most definitely shifting in the government's favor.
Maori relations have been tested and testing my entire life.
The previous government bent over backwards for Maor their beliefs,
their needs, their causes, and look where that got them.
The current government have read the things right. Basically, outcomes

(02:51):
are what really count, whether in race relations or the economy.
The numbers broadly show they're on the right side of both.

Speaker 3 (02:57):
You know, it's a great relief working with Mike with
this sort of thing, because I'm having one of those
days today where i feel like I've been taking apart
and book put back together wrong and i just can't
bother thinking.

Speaker 2 (03:11):
About anything, and so it's so good when I've got
Mike to do all the thinking for me.

Speaker 1 (03:14):
It's so rewrap.

Speaker 3 (03:15):
It's like trying to figure out what's going on up
in Northland at their ed department.

Speaker 2 (03:19):
It's too complicated for my little brain.

Speaker 4 (03:20):
Now, like a lot of what is told to us
these days, detail is hard to find. So the Health
Minister's out yesterday reassuring I suppose all of us that
the so called code black in fung Array on Friday
didn't mean the ED closed or indeed turned patients away. Firstly,
code black, I mean that's alarmist, isn't it. What does
it actually mean? It's a term used obviously by medical

(03:41):
staff to give them a sense of where their facilities at,
but for the rest of it's merely a headline. Code
black sounds dramatic. Here is what I wanted to know
but didn't get any answers to. Given the population of
the area is not great, it struck me as amazing
that by lunchtime Friday they had had eighty arrivals in
ED eighty They had twenty one in an hour. It's
about one every three minutes. I mean Los Angeles London, Yes, sure,

(04:04):
fung Array. Is that possible? Who are these people and
what's wrong with them? Surely the answers to that are
critical to knowing more about Code black. Are they even
in the right place? How many should be it doctors
not an d How many people already were in d
and shouldn't be because the systems clogged and they hadn't
been shuffled off to a ward elsewhere? Are thereby allowing
new patients to enter the system. If in that one hour,

(04:27):
all twenty one were genuine emergencies in the right place,
looking for the right help, what does it tell you
about the region? Why do we have so many critically
sick people in a single hour from such a small population.
How many of those injuries or illnesses are self inflicted?

Speaker 3 (04:41):
Are?

Speaker 4 (04:41):
How many are accidents? What sort of accidents avoidable? Radiotic?
How many of the patients will repeat? And why just
calling code black and saying you're fallen, saying you're one
hundred and fifty percent doesn't actually mean anything without context.
Without context, or you have as alarmism, the sense that
things are wrong or broken, whether enough staff, is the
hospital too small for the area? Is there somewhere, I

(05:03):
mean in there, Somewhere's got to be the answers right,
And with the answers lie some sort of clarity. Clarity
the you don't get when all you're looking to do
is provide noise and a headline.

Speaker 2 (05:12):
Yeah, yeah, see, I definitely don't want noise noise? You can't.
I can't be putting up with any noise today. You
know what I mean? Bright lights? Yeah, that's it called contact.

Speaker 3 (05:23):
Get away from me a rewrap, and I certainly didn't
want breaking news. In the middle of the show is
the Commerce Commission coming back with a report about the
banks which is basically the same as their preliminary book report.

Speaker 2 (05:34):
Was that really breaking.

Speaker 4 (05:35):
News as I suspected confirmation of what the Commis Commission
has been saying about banking. The final report just out
at eight thirty open banking. I wouldn't hold them a
breath on that, if you're holding your breath on that.
But they've authorized payments to New Zealand to carry on
do a bit of negotiation over the next eighteen months
payment New Zealand as a company that they've decided will
sort of organize this and sort something out. So that's

(05:57):
the open banking side of the equation as far as
the report itself is concerned. The Bloker runs the Commission,
the chair John Small. He says, the time since the
draft report in March, it was March this year, right,
So since their draft report in March this year has
only served to reinforce our view that competition isn't working

(06:18):
as it should in the sector and Keiwi consumers are
missing out as a result. We would expect to see
if we had well functioning competition, we would expect to
see more aggressive strategies to win customers from other banks.
What we see in New Zealand is that major banks
have little strategic differentiation and their growth targets focus on
maintaining market share and protecting margins and profitability. So everything

(06:40):
they saw in the draft report they have reiterated in
the final report. The government will speak to this later
on today and you heard Christopa Luxan earlier on. This
is a government for doing stuff and they will be
doing stuff as far as Kiwibank's concerned. And this is
probably the most specific in directing the government can do.
Capitalizing the government, this is ComCom Again, the government, as

(07:02):
Qwibank's owner, should consider what is necessary to make qwibank
a disruptive competitor, including how to p with access to
more capital. So Nichola Willis has been talking extensively about that,
and that ranges from everything from do you get a
major investor something like a superinnuation fund to throw money
into it. Do you seal it off? What do you do?

(07:23):
So we'll be looking forward with a great deal of
interest to what they've got to say about that later
in the day. But the conclusion could not be more clear.
We do not have a banking sector in this country
that functions as it should.

Speaker 3 (07:36):
So we are being rapped off, but nobody knows what
to do about it. Is there.

Speaker 2 (07:39):
What's happening not very good news. Doesn't make me feel
any better. It's the rewrap know what I do, and
I'm feeling like this.

Speaker 3 (07:49):
I like to look at the United States, because yeah,
it's whatever's going on there is way worse than what's
going on here.

Speaker 4 (07:57):
Centered an economic downturn, with the combined federal, state and
local budget deficit anywhere near the eight percent of GDP.
It's a global accident waiting to happen. Very good piece
in the Telegraph. Ambrose Evans pritcharge. You'll know the name
public accounts should be near balance at the stage of
the cycle years into a long economic expansion of the
US tips into a serious recession. From such a depraved

(08:18):
starting point, the figure could explode into the mid teens.
Reagan left office and he was often criticized as being
a debt man. Reagan left office with a gross federal
debt of under fifty percent of GDP. Today it's at
one hundred and twenty two. There is much ruin in
a great nation, but America is pushing its luck, and

(08:38):
that is part of an ongoing commentary that most people
seem to agree on in this race. CNN, for example,
yesterday changed their pathway to two seventy. They're giving it
now to Harris. It's tight, but they're giving it to Harris.
So there's momentum for her, there's money being raised for it,
there's noise for her, there's plenty of media coverage for her.
But everybody seems to agree that if the economy turns bad,

(09:03):
she's toast, and if it doesn't, she's home free. So
in other words, it's largely beyond her control because what's
going to happen is what's going to happen. A little
bit of history in play today because Biden's turning up
and it's been a long time since anybody's seen the
president sitting hand over to somebody else at the convention,
So that's going to play out today. Jill's there be
interesting to see how she handles it, because no one

(09:24):
I suspect is angrier and more bitter than Jill. If
you saw the way she acted post the debate debarcle
Hillary's there today. That in itself will be interesting because
how close was she a back in sixteen. Jamie Raskin's
there today Tomorrow, Barak and Michelle tag team Double ticket

(09:45):
could well be more popular than anybody. M Hoff speaks
the first husband. Then you get to Thursday, Bill turns
up Nancy. I'm not sure that's a thrill. It's probably
a thrill for them, but I don't know it's wired
a thrill for the world. Walsh speaks, and then of
course on Friday, our time, she does the business.

Speaker 3 (10:01):
I just watching Joe Biden doing his walk through at
the ahead of the conference starting tonight, and he looked
pretty confused.

Speaker 2 (10:15):
I'm going to I'm not going to lie.

Speaker 3 (10:17):
Imagine if you went rogue tonight and says, you know what,
I've been thinking about it, and I'm going to run
against Kamala as an independent or something.

Speaker 2 (10:25):
Like that would be so great the re wrap.

Speaker 3 (10:28):
Stop being so silly, Glenn, and give us the last
piece of audio that we've been waiting so desperately for Okay,
here it is. It's Mike talking about the possibility of
a second half of crossing and whether that'll ever happen
and how much it costs.

Speaker 2 (10:39):
In the meantime, Rob.

Speaker 4 (10:40):
Mate Bradley at Infometrics Olson has done some numbers and
I thought about this this morning. Not that I come
across the Auckland Harbor Bridge, but I am constantly tossed
off the motorway by the eight million, two hundred and
fifty seven three hundred and thirty six cones that they
still insist on putting out to close various lanes. Anyway,
the consultants, in case you didn't know, are still charging

(11:02):
apparently the government seventy five thousand dollars a week to
look at alternatives for the Auckland Harbor Bridge. This is
important for the whole country because this is the heart
of the economic engine New Zealand. So seventy five thousand
dollars a week to work out options mean there's only
two of them, isn't there There's another bridge or a
tunnel take you peck one or the other. So anyway,
the harbor Bridge has been closed temporarily twenty times since

(11:23):
twenty twenty because it got a bit bruisy and Brad's
worked out the closures total four hundred and thirty five minutes.
That's two point one million dollars in productivity lost unless
you factor in commuters, which is all of us changing
our route, which we have to of course, and when
you do that, he did a diversion from don't worry
about the places. If you're outside of walking, you don't
know what I'm talking about. It's just a big diversion

(11:44):
from Wairau Road to k Road via State Highway sixteen
that adds twenty one minutes to your journey one hundred
and seventy thousand cars a day. Do it, and suddenly
the cost becomes thirty five million dollars just because it's
a bit breezy and somebody decided we'll just inconvenience everybody.
And that's the level of idiocy that still, unfortunately sadly

(12:05):
drives the economic story in this country. So weld Don
Bradford doing the work.

Speaker 3 (12:08):
Well, what it ha'ds an easy decision to make, isn't it.
If you've got a bridge that it gets closed from
time to time because of high winds, surely you go tunnel,
don't you. I feel like there's less wind in a tunnel.
And then my colleague Sam pointed out that, well, what
about wind tunnels? And I pointed out to him, I
think the wind in those tunnels has put there deliberately,

(12:31):
and he didn't seem to know what I was talking about.
It's been one of those days. I'm gonna I'm gonna
go away and trying to think about this anymore and
come back with a fresh start to borrow.

Speaker 2 (12:42):
It'll be great to see that.

Speaker 1 (12:51):
For more from News Talks, that'd be listen live on
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