October 8, 2024 • 11 mins
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Speaker 1 (00:09):
You're listening to a podcast from Newstalk ZEDB. Follow this
and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio Rewrap.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Okay there, welcome to the Rewrap for Wednesday. All the best,
but it's from the Mic Husking Breakfast on news Dogs
ZEDB and a sillier package. I am Glenhart and today
is it zero point six? A big number or a
small number? And we'll see what Mike thinks shortly. Health
New Zealand is in deep debt even though it wasn't
supposed to be. Hospitality closures both here and overseas, and
(00:50):
nobody does the Nobel prizes like we do. But before
any of that, yes, it's ocr day again and it
kind of as seem more divided on it's what's going
to happen than ever.
Speaker 3 (01:01):
No shortage of pundits lined up, of course today calling
for not just a fifty point cut in the cash rate,
but two fifty point cuts before the end of the year.
Now they might be right, but they're only right if
we accept that the Reserve Bank has cocked all this
up titan things way too hard, had too many businesses
fall over and too many people lose their jobs. So
now they desperately have to untangle their mess. One of
(01:21):
the great debates leading into the US FED decision of
fifty points was was the economy at risk of recession?
And if it was, would they need to move fifty
points straight up toward that fear off. Meantime, in Australia
they seem to have handled things immeasurably better. They haven't
cut it all yet. In fact, they've only just taken
out the language or a threat of a rate rise.
Now their job market remains comparatively buoyant, as does the economy. Locals,
(01:44):
of course in Australia don't see it that way. They're
desperate for a cut, But in that is the tale
surely of separate economies. They think they have it bad
until you look at a place like New Zealand, who
really has it bad? So two lots of fifty points
a full percent, what does that tell you? Given if
they pull that trigger they don't meet again until well
into the new year, it means they have seen what
we have felt sales crashing, jobad shrinking, the mood doer
(02:08):
session for most likely six quarters of the past couple
of years. In simple terms, an unmitigated mess add to
the problem the government overarching view that banking generally is
not working well for New Zealanders and the rural sector
in particular is being badly served. Now you might have
noted last week the Reserve Bank fired back at all
that they argue their rules do not make life hard
on the farm. But equally they would argue, I'm sure
(02:29):
they've handled this past few years very well. In a
fifty point cut this week was an excellent example of
how well they've handled it, the same way they said
last time in their first cut that it was well signaled,
when we all know full well it wasn't. It would
be nice to think they ultimately are held to account
for all of this, given the damage its courst. But
while we wait for that fateful day, fifty points, if
that's what it is, merely demonstrates yet again how badly
(02:53):
they've misread the whole exercise.
Speaker 2 (02:55):
Yeah, so, like I say, we're getting predictions of anything
from point two five to zero point seven to five
rate cuts. These guys get paid to do this. It's
their job, the bank economists. That's all they do is
try and figure out what's going to happen in the
next little while in the economy. And if they can't
(03:15):
get it right, why are they being paid to do this?
Where's the accountability? Why am I so upset? Let's move on.
Speaker 1 (03:20):
It's a rerap.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
Actually, while we're talking banking, of course, we've got.
Speaker 1 (03:26):
And rates.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
We've got people who found that are going so hard
they've had to default on their mortgages. Now how many exactly,
it's not really clear. We've got a percentage.
Speaker 3 (03:36):
This, in part is why the media is disliked and
distrusted by so many people in this country. Here's the headline,
are speaking of mortgages, speaking of houses, speaking of banks,
Banks prepare for home loans going bad. There's your headline,
banks prepare for home loans going bad? And you think, oh,
how many home loans are going bad? How big is
this particular cliff that we have this morning? The percentage
(03:56):
of quote unquote non performing loans which are at least
ninety days over due, has lifted to zero zero point
six percent of all mortgages, thus indicating to me, correct
me if I'm wrong, but ninety nine point four percent
of mortgages, let's just say, virtually all of them are
not distressed. Therefore, there's no need for the headlo.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
I mean, I can't argue with Mike that you know,
more than ninety nine percent as definitely most people. But
it also means that more than one in every two
hundred people as defaulting. See what I mean when you
put it that way. I mean there are a lot
(04:39):
of people with mortgages, you know what I'm saying. So
if you put two hundred mortgage holders in a room,
maybe two of them have defaulted on their mortgage. I've
probably got the math wrong. Rerapp Okay, So I think
we've sorted out all the problems over at Health New
Zealand and it's onwards and upwards from here on in.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
Yes, so there are some dumb games, dumb games being
played at the moment in the very serious business of health.
Health News Zealand is in the red to the tune
of about one point seven billion dollars. That's for the year.
They're over budget by one point seven billion dollars. That's
why Lester Leevey got to be commissioner and all the
others will let go. Game one is the Labor Party,
who have of course zero credibility when it comes to money,
(05:24):
acclaiming the one point seven is because health New Zealand
is underfunded. Now I have seen the budget on budget comparisons.
They are not aischeverel is playing with numbers in a
Ginny Anderson. Have you seen how many cops are on
the beag kind of way? Dumb game Number two comes
from the unions, also with zero credibility around economics. They
argue their equity pay claim. This was when we gave
nurses a massive pay rise. I ee, about four hundred
(05:45):
million dollars worth should not be part of the one
point seven billion because they were told it was coming
from quote unquote another pot. Sadly, other pots aren't real.
What's real is what it costs to run the health system,
and what it costs is more than they have. Hence
they're in the red to the tune of one point
seven billion, and part of the cost is what we
pay nurses. The culmination of the labor union dumb game
(06:08):
is that the allegedly the government manufacturing a crisis. Now,
the trouble with numbers, generally speaking, is they are what
they are. We deal with this daily with our bank balances,
don't we if we are overdrawn, We are generally not
manufacturing a crisis or generally, we haven't been underfunded, We're
just overdrawn and we need to live within our means.
The unions and the Labour Party have never really had
(06:29):
any trouble living beyond their means, of course, and this
is why. More broadly speaking, economically we've had three recessions
in two years. We have not and still don't pay
our way. So the good news, if there is any,
is that at one point seven billion a year, surely,
surely there's a lot of waste in there somewhere. Men
of Erica Stanford can find one hundred million on a
Mari language course that was producing little of anything. Law
(06:51):
only knows what you can find in the thirty odd
billion of health money. So the most valuable skill we
can bring to such matters at the moment is realism,
economic realism. We are broke, we are overspending and fudging
numbers and playing dumb games doesn't help.
Speaker 2 (07:08):
I guess. I mean, we can just keep blaming previous
you know, people who are in charge and say that
you know, they got us into this mess. Let's should
we just put it behind us and try and move forward.
I mean, I guess we need to understand what went wrong.
So we can move forward. Boy jeez, that's a big hole.
We're in the rerap right from hospitals to hospitalities, both
(07:32):
here and over the ditch. What's going wrong?
Speaker 3 (07:36):
Bordo Bakeries and Wellington, as I'm sure you're well aware,
they've seen a sixty to seventy percent drop in revenue.
They've got three outlets of there, all closing gone done.
Thank you. How long they've been around They've been around
for thirty years thirty year businesses. Another one in Wellington
Wall three in this particular case, a closing shop follows
Pandoro told you about them the other day, Thornton Key,
Featherston Street, LIMBD and Key. What's the problem. They're closing Sunday,
(07:57):
by the way, so get your chibata before then. What's
the problem the council? You can't get to them between
the cones and the bus lanes and all the other bollocks,
you just simply can't get to them. So once again
we're reminded of what a cluster Wellington is, and generally speaking,
the New Zealand economy. And yet, and yet I tell
you the story of Opal Khan. Now Opal Khn's a
(08:20):
very well known Australian entrepreneur restauranteur chef. He's closing his
businesses across the Tasman as well because the food costs
have gone up. They can't increase the prices they charge
the customers. The wages are up, the interest rates are up.
He tried to open a cheaper version of what he
originally had, can't do it. No one's buying. So the
Australian economy is just as bad there in terms of
(08:40):
hosper So if you think, oh, no hospital in New
Zealand's a disaster, good old Australia, that'll know it's just
the same there. You can't make money, is what he
was telling the Australian Press yesterday. So bad here, bad
unfortunately there as well.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
I blame super market bakery so they're doing a great job.
Why would you need to go to a specialty bakery
when you can get each a bader. I mean just
my local Wi Wilworst has four different flavors of sourday,
a whole meal. There is a multi grain one, is
a some kind of sesame s one. They're delicious.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
The rewrap all right.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
It is a Nobel Prize season. Every day Mike will
give you an update on the day's Nobel Prize winner.
Of course, this year being the year of AI. Who
else is it going to be but these guys.
Speaker 3 (09:32):
Nobel Prize time? Why am I the only one who
covers us? Go find somebody who covers No one covers
the Nobel Prizes like II do for goodness sake. Today
it's physics, and today we've got John J. Hopfield and
Jeffrey E. Hinton use of statistical physics concepts and the
development of artificial neural networks. The artificial neural networks, of course,
play a fundamental role in machine learning and artificial intelligence,
(09:54):
which we're all fascinated with these days. These artificial neural networks,
say the Committee, have been used to advance research across
physics topics as diverse as practical physics, material science, and astrophysics.
They've also become part of our daily lives facial recognition,
language translation. The Committee also issues a small warning about
Hei and how it's boom boom boom boom boom boom
coming to change the world. But for now these two
(10:16):
blokes have won. It's tomorrow not quite as exciting as physics.
It's chemistry. Never quite like chemistry.
Speaker 2 (10:22):
Can blow stuff up with chemistry.
Speaker 3 (10:24):
It can blow stuff up with chemistry. So if they
give something to give the award to somebody who blew
something up, maybe.
Speaker 2 (10:28):
Will and you can poison people.
Speaker 3 (10:30):
It is true, literature on Friday, peace on Saturday, we're
not here for peace. They need to do something about that.
Maybe maybe not too many people.
Speaker 2 (10:39):
Too many people aren't here for peace these days.
Speaker 3 (10:41):
It is true. Maybe Jackie Tame on Saturday will cover it,
and we'll see how we go with that. But you
look out around the media today, there's another reason why
the media is in so much trouble today. You go
find me someone who's coming covering the Nobel Peace Prizes today.
The Nobel Prize is generally and you're going to find it.
You will find it nowhere but here.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
Now to be fear that story was carried on seeing
an earlier this morning, and I think they accept we
might might have got it from so they're doing it,
and we looked into it. It seems like National Radio might
have done it an interview with one of their correspondents
on the Novels yesterday. So Mike might be trumpeting his
own horn a little bit too hard there, But still
(11:19):
we're consistent. We do do it every year, and everyone
we'll be back, probably with tomorrow's one. Tomorrow, I'll see
you again.
Speaker 1 (11:34):
For more from News Talk st B, listen live on
air or online, and keep our shows with you wherever
you go with our podcast on iHeartRadio
You're listening to a podcast from Newstalk ZEDB. Follow this
and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio Rewrap.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Okay there, welcome to the Rewrap for Wednesday. All the best,
but it's from the Mic Husking Breakfast on news Dogs
ZEDB and a sillier package. I am Glenhart and today
is it zero point six? A big number or a
small number? And we'll see what Mike thinks shortly. Health
New Zealand is in deep debt even though it wasn't
supposed to be. Hospitality closures both here and overseas, and
(00:50):
nobody does the Nobel prizes like we do. But before
any of that, yes, it's ocr day again and it
kind of as seem more divided on it's what's going
to happen than ever.
Speaker 3 (01:01):
No shortage of pundits lined up, of course today calling
for not just a fifty point cut in the cash rate,
but two fifty point cuts before the end of the year.
Now they might be right, but they're only right if
we accept that the Reserve Bank has cocked all this
up titan things way too hard, had too many businesses
fall over and too many people lose their jobs. So
now they desperately have to untangle their mess. One of
(01:21):
the great debates leading into the US FED decision of
fifty points was was the economy at risk of recession?
And if it was, would they need to move fifty
points straight up toward that fear off. Meantime, in Australia
they seem to have handled things immeasurably better. They haven't
cut it all yet. In fact, they've only just taken
out the language or a threat of a rate rise.
Now their job market remains comparatively buoyant, as does the economy. Locals,
(01:44):
of course in Australia don't see it that way. They're
desperate for a cut, But in that is the tale
surely of separate economies. They think they have it bad
until you look at a place like New Zealand, who
really has it bad? So two lots of fifty points
a full percent, what does that tell you? Given if
they pull that trigger they don't meet again until well
into the new year, it means they have seen what
we have felt sales crashing, jobad shrinking, the mood doer
(02:08):
session for most likely six quarters of the past couple
of years. In simple terms, an unmitigated mess add to
the problem the government overarching view that banking generally is
not working well for New Zealanders and the rural sector
in particular is being badly served. Now you might have
noted last week the Reserve Bank fired back at all
that they argue their rules do not make life hard
on the farm. But equally they would argue, I'm sure
(02:29):
they've handled this past few years very well. In a
fifty point cut this week was an excellent example of
how well they've handled it, the same way they said
last time in their first cut that it was well signaled,
when we all know full well it wasn't. It would
be nice to think they ultimately are held to account
for all of this, given the damage its courst. But
while we wait for that fateful day, fifty points, if
that's what it is, merely demonstrates yet again how badly
(02:53):
they've misread the whole exercise.
Speaker 2 (02:55):
Yeah, so, like I say, we're getting predictions of anything
from point two five to zero point seven to five
rate cuts. These guys get paid to do this. It's
their job, the bank economists. That's all they do is
try and figure out what's going to happen in the
next little while in the economy. And if they can't
(03:15):
get it right, why are they being paid to do this?
Where's the accountability? Why am I so upset? Let's move on.
Speaker 1 (03:20):
It's a rerap.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
Actually, while we're talking banking, of course, we've got.
Speaker 1 (03:26):
And rates.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
We've got people who found that are going so hard
they've had to default on their mortgages. Now how many exactly,
it's not really clear. We've got a percentage.
Speaker 3 (03:36):
This, in part is why the media is disliked and
distrusted by so many people in this country. Here's the headline,
are speaking of mortgages, speaking of houses, speaking of banks,
Banks prepare for home loans going bad. There's your headline,
banks prepare for home loans going bad? And you think, oh,
how many home loans are going bad? How big is
this particular cliff that we have this morning? The percentage
(03:56):
of quote unquote non performing loans which are at least
ninety days over due, has lifted to zero zero point
six percent of all mortgages, thus indicating to me, correct
me if I'm wrong, but ninety nine point four percent
of mortgages, let's just say, virtually all of them are
not distressed. Therefore, there's no need for the headlo.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
I mean, I can't argue with Mike that you know,
more than ninety nine percent as definitely most people. But
it also means that more than one in every two
hundred people as defaulting. See what I mean when you
put it that way. I mean there are a lot
(04:39):
of people with mortgages, you know what I'm saying. So
if you put two hundred mortgage holders in a room,
maybe two of them have defaulted on their mortgage. I've
probably got the math wrong. Rerapp Okay, So I think
we've sorted out all the problems over at Health New
Zealand and it's onwards and upwards from here on in.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
Yes, so there are some dumb games, dumb games being
played at the moment in the very serious business of health.
Health News Zealand is in the red to the tune
of about one point seven billion dollars. That's for the year.
They're over budget by one point seven billion dollars. That's
why Lester Leevey got to be commissioner and all the
others will let go. Game one is the Labor Party,
who have of course zero credibility when it comes to money,
(05:24):
acclaiming the one point seven is because health New Zealand
is underfunded. Now I have seen the budget on budget comparisons.
They are not aischeverel is playing with numbers in a
Ginny Anderson. Have you seen how many cops are on
the beag kind of way? Dumb game Number two comes
from the unions, also with zero credibility around economics. They
argue their equity pay claim. This was when we gave
nurses a massive pay rise. I ee, about four hundred
(05:45):
million dollars worth should not be part of the one
point seven billion because they were told it was coming
from quote unquote another pot. Sadly, other pots aren't real.
What's real is what it costs to run the health system,
and what it costs is more than they have. Hence
they're in the red to the tune of one point
seven billion, and part of the cost is what we
pay nurses. The culmination of the labor union dumb game
(06:08):
is that the allegedly the government manufacturing a crisis. Now,
the trouble with numbers, generally speaking, is they are what
they are. We deal with this daily with our bank balances,
don't we if we are overdrawn, We are generally not
manufacturing a crisis or generally, we haven't been underfunded, We're
just overdrawn and we need to live within our means.
The unions and the Labour Party have never really had
(06:29):
any trouble living beyond their means, of course, and this
is why. More broadly speaking, economically we've had three recessions
in two years. We have not and still don't pay
our way. So the good news, if there is any,
is that at one point seven billion a year, surely,
surely there's a lot of waste in there somewhere. Men
of Erica Stanford can find one hundred million on a
Mari language course that was producing little of anything. Law
(06:51):
only knows what you can find in the thirty odd
billion of health money. So the most valuable skill we
can bring to such matters at the moment is realism,
economic realism. We are broke, we are overspending and fudging
numbers and playing dumb games doesn't help.
Speaker 2 (07:08):
I guess. I mean, we can just keep blaming previous
you know, people who are in charge and say that
you know, they got us into this mess. Let's should
we just put it behind us and try and move forward.
I mean, I guess we need to understand what went wrong.
So we can move forward. Boy jeez, that's a big hole.
We're in the rerap right from hospitals to hospitalities, both
(07:32):
here and over the ditch. What's going wrong?
Speaker 3 (07:36):
Bordo Bakeries and Wellington, as I'm sure you're well aware,
they've seen a sixty to seventy percent drop in revenue.
They've got three outlets of there, all closing gone done.
Thank you. How long they've been around They've been around
for thirty years thirty year businesses. Another one in Wellington
Wall three in this particular case, a closing shop follows
Pandoro told you about them the other day, Thornton Key,
Featherston Street, LIMBD and Key. What's the problem. They're closing Sunday,
(07:57):
by the way, so get your chibata before then. What's
the problem the council? You can't get to them between
the cones and the bus lanes and all the other bollocks,
you just simply can't get to them. So once again
we're reminded of what a cluster Wellington is, and generally speaking,
the New Zealand economy. And yet, and yet I tell
you the story of Opal Khan. Now Opal Khn's a
(08:20):
very well known Australian entrepreneur restauranteur chef. He's closing his
businesses across the Tasman as well because the food costs
have gone up. They can't increase the prices they charge
the customers. The wages are up, the interest rates are up.
He tried to open a cheaper version of what he
originally had, can't do it. No one's buying. So the
Australian economy is just as bad there in terms of
(08:40):
hosper So if you think, oh, no hospital in New
Zealand's a disaster, good old Australia, that'll know it's just
the same there. You can't make money, is what he
was telling the Australian Press yesterday. So bad here, bad
unfortunately there as well.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
I blame super market bakery so they're doing a great job.
Why would you need to go to a specialty bakery
when you can get each a bader. I mean just
my local Wi Wilworst has four different flavors of sourday,
a whole meal. There is a multi grain one, is
a some kind of sesame s one. They're delicious.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
The rewrap all right.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
It is a Nobel Prize season. Every day Mike will
give you an update on the day's Nobel Prize winner.
Of course, this year being the year of AI. Who
else is it going to be but these guys.
Speaker 3 (09:32):
Nobel Prize time? Why am I the only one who
covers us? Go find somebody who covers No one covers
the Nobel Prizes like II do for goodness sake. Today
it's physics, and today we've got John J. Hopfield and
Jeffrey E. Hinton use of statistical physics concepts and the
development of artificial neural networks. The artificial neural networks, of course,
play a fundamental role in machine learning and artificial intelligence,
(09:54):
which we're all fascinated with these days. These artificial neural networks,
say the Committee, have been used to advance research across
physics topics as diverse as practical physics, material science, and astrophysics.
They've also become part of our daily lives facial recognition,
language translation. The Committee also issues a small warning about
Hei and how it's boom boom boom boom boom boom
coming to change the world. But for now these two
(10:16):
blokes have won. It's tomorrow not quite as exciting as physics.
It's chemistry. Never quite like chemistry.
Speaker 2 (10:22):
Can blow stuff up with chemistry.
Speaker 3 (10:24):
It can blow stuff up with chemistry. So if they
give something to give the award to somebody who blew
something up, maybe.
Speaker 2 (10:28):
Will and you can poison people.
Speaker 3 (10:30):
It is true, literature on Friday, peace on Saturday, we're
not here for peace. They need to do something about that.
Maybe maybe not too many people.
Speaker 2 (10:39):
Too many people aren't here for peace these days.
Speaker 3 (10:41):
It is true. Maybe Jackie Tame on Saturday will cover it,
and we'll see how we go with that. But you
look out around the media today, there's another reason why
the media is in so much trouble today. You go
find me someone who's coming covering the Nobel Peace Prizes today.
The Nobel Prize is generally and you're going to find it.
You will find it nowhere but here.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
Now to be fear that story was carried on seeing
an earlier this morning, and I think they accept we
might might have got it from so they're doing it,
and we looked into it. It seems like National Radio might
have done it an interview with one of their correspondents
on the Novels yesterday. So Mike might be trumpeting his
own horn a little bit too hard there, But still
(11:19):
we're consistent. We do do it every year, and everyone
we'll be back, probably with tomorrow's one. Tomorrow, I'll see
you again.
Speaker 1 (11:34):
For more from News Talk st B, listen live on
air or online, and keep our shows with you wherever
you go with our podcast on iHeartRadio
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