October 30, 2024 • 37 mins
How close is the 2024 presidential election between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris? A recent Suffolk University poll shows that both candidates are deadlocked in the battleground state of Michigan. In addition, another recent Suffolk University poll shows the candidates nearly tied in the battleground state of Wisconsin. David Paleologos, the Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center joined us to discuss their poll results!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
It's Night Side with Dan Ray on WBS Constance Video.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
In just a moment, we will introduce you, reintroduce you
to friend Dave Paleologus. We had Spencer Kimball with us
last night and Dave Paleologus of Suffolk University tonight, and
we're kind of drilling down on polling up specifically political polling.
And it's not often you can get a double play
(00:29):
combination of Kimball and Paleo Logus and back to back night.
So consider yourself lucky, you know, I consider myself very
lucky here. And if you have questions for Dave Paleologus.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
You can line them up right now.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
But before we do that, got to give away a
couple of tickets here. As we are gonna give away
two tickets every night right after the nine o'clock news.
You need to be calling number ten right now six one, seven, nine, three,
one ten thirty will win two tickets to Celtic Thunder
at the Premier Theater at Foxwoods on November seventh. He'll
(01:01):
set off on a musical journey with the Irish music
sensations Celtic Thunder Live. Complete show info and tickets are
available at Foxwoods dot com. All you have to be
is caller number ten, and I will remind you Dan,
our producer is simply going to answer the phone call
a one, call a two, call of three and move
right through it. Uh and he will only let us
(01:24):
know when we have caller number ten and you can
call back.
Speaker 3 (01:27):
So if you're.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
Lucky enough to get through at call he number three,
call back, you just have to land. It's almost like
a case of musical chairs here on night Side. Do
not call on any other number because the only number
that we're going to be answer writing right now. If
you want to talk to Dave Pale Logus, you call
him the regular number which is six one seven, two,
five four to ten thirty, but the number now six
one seven, nine three one ten thirty. Call on number
(01:50):
ten will win two tickets to see Celtic Thunder next
week at the Premier Theater at Foxwoods on November seventh.
He'll set off on a musical journey with the Irish
music sensations. Celtic Thunder Live. Complete show info tickets available
at Foxwoods dot com. So as soon as we get
the number and I can see that, the phone lines
(02:11):
will lit up very quickly coming right down to it.
So it's probably I would say, I'm going to hear
pretty quickly from Dan that he has a uh, that
he has the tenth caller within a matter of a
few just got a winner right now, So you can
stop calling. We'll be back tomorrow night, right after the
nine o'clock news with another pair of tickets, and another
pair on Friday night. But we have our winter tonight,
(02:33):
so you can stop calling. Six one, seven, nine three.
Dave Paley Logus, Welcome back to Nightside.
Speaker 3 (02:39):
How are you.
Speaker 4 (02:41):
I'm wow, great to be here.
Speaker 3 (02:44):
This is showtime for you. Huh.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
This is uh, this is the week that we've all
been waiting for five days or whatever. It is Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday,
and then it's showtime.
Speaker 4 (02:57):
Oh yeah, I remember at the beginning of this year,
you know, thinking, oh, six months, I have to do
all of these polls and everything. Am I ever going
to get through it? And here it is next Tuesday.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
We talked with your colleague, uh, and he was He
said that that you're was you were his mentor. He
was with you at Suffolk for a while. He's out
in his own now is an Emerson Polster, and he
was going through how you folks have had to adapt
to technology, technical changes we no longer you know, look
at calling people on.
Speaker 3 (03:29):
Telephones and all of that.
Speaker 2 (03:32):
How tough is it to call these races, particularly a
presidential race, accurately? How tough is it to do that?
Has it become easier with technology or more difficult?
Speaker 4 (03:44):
I think it's become more difficult. You know, the technology
is terrific in terms of reaching a lot of potential voters,
but it's getting a complete you know. I mean, some
surveys are fifteen minutes long. People don't have that long
in their own lives to spend on a phone call.
(04:04):
But I mean we're you know, when we release a
national pull of a thousand respondents, we probably have to
call twenty five thirty thousand households to get the right
one thousand. That is the right proportion of all the
demographics geography, age, gender, and political party affiliation, all of that.
So it's more about getting the proportions right as it
(04:27):
is doing a poll of ten thousand people five hundred people.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
Okay, so let's assume you start out right, and what
do you do? You take a wave of you know
a couple thousand people, and at that point, when you're
starting fresh, you need certain percentage of men, certain percentage women, Democrats, Republicans, independents,
different ethnic backgrounds, different states. I assume it's like filling
(04:52):
in dots on a map.
Speaker 3 (04:54):
Or am I oversimplifying it?
Speaker 4 (04:56):
Yeah, No, it is. It is. Every poster has a
different methodology. What we do is we set parameters by geography,
and then what we'll do is we'll divide whether we're
calling nationally or particular state into regions, and then within
those regions, we fill buckets of demographics that most accurately
(05:19):
reflect what we believe will be game conditions on election
day in this election, and part of it is based
on historical trends twenty twenty exit polls and so on,
and then we kind of mix in with that current
movements both by the census and people migrating from one
area to another, and different demographic changes that may occur
(05:43):
since the last presidential election. And when you add it
all up, it comes out right. If the proportions are right,
it comes out right. And that's the most difficult part,
you know, is to make sure that you've got the
correct apustion of whites, black, old, young, Democrats, Republicans and
so on. And you know it's once you get it set,
(06:09):
once the planning of what we call the sample frame
is completed, then the phoning just kind of flows. You know,
we monitor the first night, make sure that the calls
are being done correctly, the skips are right on the questionnaire,
and it just kind of it rolls for two or
three days in the field, and then we gather the
data back and we presented and published the results.
Speaker 2 (06:32):
Now, Spencer Kimber last night said they no longer use people,
They're using computers.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
Are you still people based or we are?
Speaker 4 (06:41):
Yeah, we are. It's more expensive, and I know Spencer
has got a little bit of a tighter budget, and
his methodology is mixed. It's online panels and it's either
our methodology. They do use some live caller, but it's
small percent. We have always used live callers, professional phone banks.
(07:05):
We continue to use live calls. It doesn't mean that
that's a better methodology than someone else's polling, but we
found it to be pretty good and in terms of
the accuracy, it's it's worked out well for Suffolk, Okay.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
It's worked out very well for Suffolk And by the way,
just so people understand, you do much more than political polling,
give us an idea of the scope of your operation.
Speaker 5 (07:32):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (07:33):
So, we do a lot of policy research and we
do some creative polling that a lot of a lot
of other institutes don't do. And you know, we've done
just like exclusive polls of black voters only in Michigan
and Pennsylvania this year, the only research out there that
did that. We did an exclusive pole of Hispanic voters
(07:53):
in Arizona and Nevada anticipating some of some of the
recent demographic trends. That was unique. We've pulled the French
France election a couple of cycles ago, done. We've done
issues like when the Russian Federation invaded Ukraine and there
(08:15):
were teahouses in New York that were being vandalized, Russian
tea houses because people were upset at Russia for the invasion.
It was a student inspired research. We actually polled five
hundred Russian Americans in the US and five hundred Ukrainian
Americans in the US, and we've determined that there was
not a lot of difference. Both subsets didn't like Putin,
(08:38):
didn't like Russia, and were more or less pro Ukrainian.
So we've used the research in many ways to differentiate ourselves.
We also do city view polls of urban areas on
police and racism and other urban issues. So we're using
our platform to really get into the space.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
I would assume that a lot of Russians who would
be in this country are in this country because they
don't like Putin.
Speaker 4 (09:08):
Exactly, if you.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
Don't like Putin and you're in Russia, it's probably a
tough place to live. My guest today, pale Logus, Dave,
I want to ask you a little bit.
Speaker 3 (09:16):
I know that you've just have some poles.
Speaker 2 (09:19):
You've got some poles either coming out tomorrow or came
out earlier today, different states. If I recall from our
conversation of earlier this week and might correct on that.
Speaker 4 (09:28):
Yeah, So Monday we released Wisconsin. We had Trump up
by one in Wisconsin, and we released a Wisconsin bell
Weather area, which a lot of the local people here
and know from Suffolk pass polling. We not only do
the state wide pole, which everybody does, we do the
bell Weather area, which was dor County, and Harris actually
(09:50):
did a little bit better in the bell Weather in
door County than she did in the statewide Today we
released Michigan. Michigan was a dead even race. Harris was
up one in that Bellwether Kent County, and Friday were
releasing Pennsylvania.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
Okay, I noticed that today five thirty eight dropped Trump's
chances from fifty four to fifty three out of one
hundred down to fifty one. I'd like to I know
you're not associated with five thirty eight, but your polls
are taken in consideration by then. It sounds to me
like your polls might have had an influence in that
that decision by five poin fifty eight. Did I read
that correctly?
Speaker 4 (10:28):
Yeah? They did. They did. They do use our polls,
and they incorporated that they obviously didn't expect us to
have Michigan. Even a lot of the polls have Trump
winning Michigan, but it is a coin flip right now,
and he very well could win it, but because it
is a margin of error race. But that poll did
(10:51):
impact their five thirty eight rating. And in addition to that,
CNN dropped a couple of polls today, both in Wisconsin
and Michigan, showing Harris winning by between five and six
points which was really vastly different than all of the polling,
especially the ones showing Trump leading. So that kind of
(11:13):
throw a monkey wrench into their model.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
Yeah, certainly, nothing like some surprises at the end. Will
take a break if folks would like to join the
conversation with Dave Paleologus six one, seven, two, five, four
to ten thirty six one seven, nine three one ten thirty,
and we'll we'll break down some of these states and
get some sense as to where no one's going to
(11:36):
be able to predict it for you, but you can
probably read between the lines or listen to what you
hear Dave Paleologus say and pick up some interesting insights.
Speaker 3 (11:44):
Back on Nightside right after this.
Speaker 1 (11:47):
Now back to Dan Ray live from the Window World
Nightside Studios on WBZ News Radio.
Speaker 2 (11:55):
Dave were a little short here on time to the news,
so I'm going to hold off the calls and to
right after the news and we will get to the
calls immediately. Can do you have some time to take
some calls, By the way, I don't want to be presentable.
Speaker 4 (12:06):
Absolutely, absolutely great.
Speaker 2 (12:08):
Thank you so much so. This race, I was hoping
for a decisive win for either one of the candidates,
because I think if we have to go through what
we went through in twenty twenty again with a close
race and all sorts of protestations and arguments and all that,
it looks to me like what I'm hearing you say
(12:28):
is that there's no chance that this is going to
be a big, easy win for either one of these candidates.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
This is going to go down to the wire. It
sounds to me like what you're telling me. Now, Am
I reading you correctly?
Speaker 4 (12:40):
If the polls are accurate, you're yes. But if there
is a polling miss across the board by even two
or three points, Kamalin Harris could sweep or Trump could sweep.
So it really will depend on the sort of the
aggregate of the polling averages in each of the states.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
Okay, I got a quick question in the past. In
twenty sixteen and even in twenty twenty, Trump did better
than he was polling every once I think familiar with
the numbers. You know, Joe Biden was ahead of him
by a certain percentage points in certain states. Hillary Clinton
was even further ahead of him. Is there a hidden
Trump vote out there that you folks cannot calculate or
(13:22):
have you been able to figure out how to work
that into these numbers.
Speaker 4 (13:26):
Well, it wasn't twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. Part of
the reason was that all of the pollsters weren't factoring
in education level. People with less than a college degree
disproportionately support Trump, people with a college degree or better
disproportionately support the Democratic nominee for president. I think the
polling community caught up in twenty twenty, but they didn't
(13:51):
include what we call the recall question, which is who
did you vote for in the last election, Which means,
if you have a poll today, h and you ask
the recall question, who did you vote for in twenty twenty,
and it's fifteen points higher for Biden or for Trump,
(14:11):
you know that the polling subsample is wrong, and so
pulses need to adjust for that. If you include both
the educational the correct proportions of educational attainment, and the
recall question from the previous election, you'll probably do a
pretty good job calling the race.
Speaker 2 (14:31):
So then you think that there is something in that
Trump camp who was saying, oh, you know, as long
as it's tied, Trump's going to win by four or
five points, because that's that's been his track. But what
you're saying is that that now has been calculated in
and that quote unquote hidden Trump vote is probably not
there as strong this time as it was four years
(14:54):
ago or eight years ago.
Speaker 4 (14:56):
I don't I don't think to the extent that there
was an over an overcall in twenty twenty twenty sixteen.
It was a very big gap twenty twenty, a gap,
but not as big. I think that the polling community
is catching up with the Trump factor. There are some
people who think that Trump will be overpolled. If you
(15:17):
look at the polling and the Republican primaries back in
the spring, Trump was overpolled and he wasn't hitting the
mark as high as what the pollsters had him at.
So there is a school of thought. There are people
out there who say, maybe Kamala Harris is being underpolled,
especially in communities and rural communities where people don't want
(15:40):
to say they're voting Democratic in a rural area to
a pollster, and it's more of a closet goal for
the Democrat. So I don't buy into, well, you know,
we're all missing Trump by five or six points across
the board. I could be wrong, but I think the
polling community has kind of caught.
Speaker 5 (15:58):
Up with that.
Speaker 2 (15:59):
Okay, and my last question before we go to the news,
and then we'll go to phone calls right after that.
Trump seems to be, for the polls I see, seems
to be doing better with black and Latino voters than
he has in the past and other Republicans. Is that
number going to melt between now and Tuesday or or
(16:21):
do you think that's going to hold from what you've seen.
Speaker 4 (16:24):
Well, first of all, Harris is going to win both
blacks and overwhelmingly and Hispanics pretty comfortably. The only problem
Harris has is young Black men ages thirty eighteen to
thirty four. Those voters are voting for either Trump or
third party in higher proportions than four years ago. Hispanics
(16:47):
it's eighteen eight It's young Hispanic men and middle aged
Hispanic men. Because we did in our Hispanic only poland Nevada.
In Arizona ages eighteen to fifty, they were voting for
Trump by twelve thirteen points, whereas they were splitting evenly
between Trump and Biden four years ago. So those are
(17:07):
the if you micro target just those categories, those are
the only categories within Hispanic and Black which are problematic
for Harris, and she still hasn't cracked that yet. She
still hasn't won back the young black voter, a young
black male voter, and the young male Hispanic voter and
middle aged male Hispanic voter.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
So the actual voted twenty twenty with Biden amongst black voters.
Speaker 3 (17:34):
And I'm sure you know this so off the top
of your head, I don't.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
It was by something like ninety percent and Trump was
nine percent.
Speaker 4 (17:44):
Yeah, it was not. In the swing states, it was
ninety two to seven, Okay, swing and right now and
right now and right now, Harris is like eighty to
fifteen or eighty to sixteen, which you would say, well,
that's still great, and it is great, but it's not
the night. She's got to get up to ninety percent
in the black community, and young black men are holding
(18:06):
that number down a little bit. And the reason is
because in Pennsylvania, which is really a red state except
for Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, black voters have to overwhelmingly deliver
a big margin coming out of Philadelphia County in order
to carry Pennsylvania. Same thing with Detroit carrying it into
the rural areas of Michigan.
Speaker 2 (18:27):
So if Harris can't get up to that to the
Biden level in a really close race, why does she
make up that difference. If she can't make it up
amongst you know, young black men.
Speaker 4 (18:40):
She makes it up in two areas. Number One, older voters.
She's polling older voters better than Biden did. Believe it
or not, Trump was winning. Trump was winning older voters.
In the exit polls, She's capturing more older voters than
Biden did four years ago. And there were some Republicans,
disaffected Republicans where Haley voters who will never vote for
(19:02):
Harris but they haven't really warmed up to Trump. They
are voting for Trump, but in many of these state
ballots they have multiple other third party options, yep. And
they could just say, look, I'm going to vote for
the Libertarian candidate or the Constitutional Party candidate, and that
would be costly to Trump.
Speaker 2 (19:20):
I assume his pollsters, Trump's posters are telling him the
same thing. They must be seeing the same numbers you're seeing.
Why do you think do you think that Trump, at
some point in the next few days is going to
say I got to call NICKI Haley and I got
to make some appearances with Nicki Haley.
Speaker 4 (19:37):
Oh yeah, I absolutely believe that. You know, I just
saw Nicki Haley interviewed and she was campaigning for McCormick
in Pennsylvania, and they were like, are you're going to
be with Trump? And she basically said, I haven't heard
from him since June. I think you heard that.
Speaker 3 (19:56):
I heard that.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
So how can Trump be that dumb or that's stubborn? If, if,
if that could be what he needs to push himself
over the line.
Speaker 3 (20:06):
That's that's to me interesting.
Speaker 4 (20:08):
Yeah, I mean it's kind of a character flaw. It's
a character flaw. He doesn't he doesn't want anyone taking
credit If he believes he's gonna win, he doesn't want
anybody taking credit for it, especially Nikki Haley. He has
his own VP, and there's a certain pride factor which
could come back and bite him off. Yeah, that's that's
a decision that his campaign has to figure out. They
(20:29):
have to go through the poll. They won't pulling numbers
and figure that out, or it could be costly in
one or two of these swing states.
Speaker 3 (20:36):
Maybe they're running out of time.
Speaker 2 (20:38):
As simple as that, David, let's do this, Let's let's
hold on. We'll get callers on the other side. We'll
be right back. I promise I'll have a quick newscast
to be right back.
Speaker 3 (20:47):
We'll go to the callers. My name's Dan Ray.
Speaker 2 (20:50):
His is Day Pale Logus, along with Spencer Kimball and
John Zogby. I don't think you can find better pollsters
than these three gentlemen, and I get a sense that
all three of them are seeing this fairly similarly. I
just commend them to you. It's your decision whether you
want to believe him or not. We'll be back on
Nightside six one, seven, two, five, four, ten thirty or
(21:11):
six one, seven, nine three thirty. You can talk to
a polster, one of the best, live right after the news.
Speaker 1 (21:19):
It's Night Side with Dan d Boston's news Radio.
Speaker 2 (21:24):
Well, ready to go, let's I'm looking folks for questions.
You know, there's no sense of trying to argue with
Dave Pelly Logus, but ask whatever questions you like, because frankly, uh,
he's equipped with a lot of information.
Speaker 4 (21:40):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (21:41):
It seems to me that this race has gone back
and forth Dave, and a week ago, I think the
numbers would have been a little stronger for Trump. And
maybe he's hitting a little bit of maybe he hit
a plateau, maybe he's he's sliding here. That's the only
thing I can I can figure as I follow the numbers.
You know the numbers better than me. How far off
I on that analysis?
Speaker 4 (22:01):
No, not far off at all. I mean I have
the same feeling just looking at the numbers. I think
Trump peaked probably a week or so ago, and either
the pendulum is swinging slowly back to Kamala Harris, or
maybe Trump is plateauing, as you say, and he's kind
of coasting into Tuesday. But no matter what happens, it's
(22:24):
really all about field operation right now, getting your vote
identified and knocking on doors and pulling them out on
election day.
Speaker 3 (22:33):
All right, let's go to the call.
Speaker 2 (22:35):
It's gonna go first to Nick and Weymouth. Nick, you
are first this hour a Night'sie with Suffolk University poster
Dave Pale logus. Go ahead, Nick, Okay. If Nick's not ready,
we're gonna move on. We're putting Nick on hold. He's
obviously not ready, and we're gonna go to Dan. Please
put Nick on hold, if you would, thank you very much.
Speaker 3 (22:54):
Let's go to Stephen Cambridge, Steven Cambridge, You're first up.
Go right ahead, Steve.
Speaker 6 (23:02):
People who will answer posters and people who won't, So
to some degree, anybody who answers a poster is self selecting.
Do you ever think about that? And do you have
any way to control for that?
Speaker 2 (23:17):
I clipped you at the beginning. That was my mistake, Steve,
I clipped you at the beginning. Just rephrase that question
quickly for Dave Paleologus plays.
Speaker 6 (23:25):
There are people who will answer posters questions and people
who will never answer posters questions. So to some degree,
the people who answer posters questions are self selecting part
of the population. Does Dave have any way of controlling
for that or does he ever think about that?
Speaker 3 (23:43):
Great question?
Speaker 4 (23:44):
Yeah, I do think about it. And the answer to
the question is that the that person who doesn't answer
the call does not have any unique demographic that we
won't pick up at some point with numerous trials. In
other words, if that person is a conservative white male
between the ages of thirty and forty five, some not
(24:08):
every you know, not every white male between thirty and
forty five has that resistance to being interviewed. And so
the key is that every demographic is represented, and some
demographics are harder to get others than others. For example,
what we do in the last night of calling is
(24:29):
we what we call quota phil which means that if
there are demographics that are lower that we need to increase,
we have two options. We can either weight the sample
at the end or fill quotas. I don't like waiting
is a general rule, because it pulls another demographic out
of whack. It's like whackamo. You adjust for one demographic
(24:50):
and something else pops up and it's out of whack,
and you adjust for that and so on. So what
I would rather do is fill quotas. So it's time consuming,
it costs a lot of money, but I think it's
well worth it if you can fill quotas and have
a balanced survey responding pool that matches the correct proportions demographically.
Speaker 6 (25:09):
Dave one more question, and I mean this respectfully. Definitely,
all of this polling makes for very good news copy
and the public likes it. Makes everything exciting. Do you
see it serving any real purpose in terms of what's
(25:30):
good for the country or what's good for our democracy,
et cetera, et cetera. Do you see any real purpose
in it.
Speaker 4 (25:37):
Yeah, I do. I mean, I'm very bullish on it.
I mean, we did on an entire poll on sexual harassment
in the workplace, sexual assault. It had an incredible amount
of staying power. We called we did a poll of
unregistered unlikely voters, which nobody pulls. Everybody polls likely voters,
and we found really interesting findings about the one hundred
(25:59):
million people who won't vote in the United States who
are eligible to vote. So I think the polling does
teach us a lot and informs us of how we
can be better as a society. One of the projects
we did at the university was we did a poll
of Newark residents. Because Newark had a consent decree against
(26:20):
itself with the Department of Justice, and the DJ approached
Suffolk asking us to bid on it. We did a
survey of residents of Newark and we made some really
stiff recommendations for the Newark Police Department, some of which
they adopted, some of which they didn't. The year after
that poll was published, not a shot was fired by
a Newark police officer in an entire year, and so
(26:44):
one of my students, Keith Horvath, who still works for me.
I remember him saying. He came right out of the
classroom and he said, I can't believe that this poll.
I feel like the poll we worked on saved lives.
I've never ever felt that way. And I was stuck
fund to hear a student say that to me, that
a poll, just a little poll, this student believed saved lies.
(27:08):
But the truth is is that the police department adopted
the recommendations and maybe some good can come out of it.
It's not a perfect unit.
Speaker 6 (27:16):
About the presidential polling. Do you think good can come
out of it?
Speaker 4 (27:20):
I think it can in terms of the undecided voters,
and you can be informed about like what under like
we're undecided thinking of voting. For example, we published third
party candidates everybody that's listed on the ballot. Let's say
that Jill Stein and Cornell West get a larger proportion
(27:41):
of the vote than we're currently showing at the expense
of Kamala Harris. Trump could win that state if Jill
Stein upticks and Cornell West uptics in Michigan, for example,
that is an important finding, and that's why we report
every candidate that's listed on a ballot. Some posters they'll
do just Kamala Harris versus Donald Trump, two people. Then
(28:04):
they'll have an option for another, uh, you know, an
other choice. And if the respondent names it, they names it,
they name it. We actually name all of the candidates
because those little third party candidates at are half a
point or a quarter of a point in a tight
race could make all the difference in the world.
Speaker 6 (28:22):
Thank you both, Thank you, Dan, Thank you Dave.
Speaker 2 (28:25):
Great question marks, great questions and great answers. Will be
back good Night Side right after this.
Speaker 1 (28:31):
Now back to Dan Ray live from the Window World
Night Side Studios on WBZ News Radio.
Speaker 2 (28:38):
Back to the phones for Poster Suffolk, Poster Dave PAILLEYO logus,
Nick and Weymouth.
Speaker 3 (28:43):
You're up, Hope, you're ready? Go ahead? Nick?
Speaker 7 (28:45):
Is that ready?
Speaker 1 (28:46):
Hey?
Speaker 7 (28:47):
I'm looking and what I like to look at is
the real clear polling electoral map. What I'm looking at
the toss ups states have recently increased. Okay, they're like
a heart at night now. So it's been reshuffling.
Speaker 3 (29:04):
And so there's only fifty states.
Speaker 2 (29:07):
What are you talking about? One hundred and eight toss
up states? Come on, Nick, what are you talking about?
Speaker 7 (29:11):
Is a hard and eight toss up states could go
either way, not staying.
Speaker 3 (29:14):
There's only we only have fifty states.
Speaker 7 (29:17):
Excuse me, one hundred and eight electoral votes.
Speaker 2 (29:20):
Okay, okay, okay, now you've clarified.
Speaker 3 (29:24):
That's good. Nick, go ahead. What's your question?
Speaker 7 (29:26):
They for the states that are toss ups. Okay, that
you add up the electoral votes.
Speaker 5 (29:31):
That's the hundred I get it, I get it.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
Nick. You're wasting my time. What you question?
Speaker 7 (29:35):
Let me finish. I'll finish. Okay, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia.
Speaker 2 (29:40):
We know the toss up states. Nick, we know the
toss up states. You're wasted my time.
Speaker 7 (29:45):
If he wins, If Trump wins Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina,
in New Hampshire, he'll get to seventy two based on
my on my calculations.
Speaker 3 (29:56):
Good for you, Good for you.
Speaker 7 (29:58):
So what you question, Amphony pencil.
Speaker 2 (30:00):
See you that good night? Okay, I have no he's
just wasting my time here. Let's keep going here, Dave.
There's all sorts of, you know, variations and permutations that
can get different candidates to different numbers.
Speaker 3 (30:14):
That's part of the fun of it.
Speaker 2 (30:16):
Let me go next to Anthony and Cambridge. Anthony A
little bit more direct on your question. Go ahead, Anthony.
Speaker 8 (30:22):
Thank you, Dan, and great to have Dave on. He's fantastic, Dave.
How much how much time money is invested now in
trying to figure out who has voted early and how
to direct the money towards certain demographics. You mentioned that
all the voters have started to swing towards Harris. That's
(30:43):
a group that I would assume would be higher in
early voting. How hot is it to track exactly who
has voted? And I'm just to close, I'm fascinated with
early voting. I think there's a bit of momentum going
for Harris. Seemed to be a little scale and it
could be ironic that, you know, with Trump being so
(31:05):
against early voting, it could turn out that he's the
biggest beneficiary of it if her momentum ends up, you know,
coming at the end and not having the impact it would.
But can you talk a little bit about early voting
and how that impacts everything, because it's it's a fascinating topic, Dan, Thank.
Speaker 3 (31:23):
You, David.
Speaker 2 (31:25):
Sure.
Speaker 4 (31:25):
So, the early voting has been Harris in most every
pole that we've been doing, by like thirty points. Now,
that's not unusual. Biden won by thirty one in early
voting in our last national poll four years ago. Harris
was winning by twenty nine in the national poll. So
she's right there in terms of the early voting, and
(31:48):
was seeing the same thing in the swing states as well.
And there were you know, in the swing states for example.
You know, we had a large early lead among Wisconsin
early voters and Trump was winning by one. So the
early voting is an indicator, but it will shift because
(32:11):
mail in voting is all Democratic pretty much. Early in
person voting is more of a mix, and election day
voting is overwhelmingly Trump. So Trump has made improvements in Nevada.
You mentioned Nevada, caller, Nevada is one of those states
where Republicans are overperforming on the early voting, especially in
(32:34):
the rural counties.
Speaker 9 (32:36):
All right, but your data is based on polling people
who have voted early, not assumptions based on the demographics
or of the data of people who voted. How much
information do you get from the local and state elected
you know, election officials on who has voted.
Speaker 4 (32:58):
We watched that and it changes from day to day,
and you can you know, there's a website where you
can track how how much of the early voting has
come in, Like in Massachusetts, I think a million two
have already voted something like that, a million three out
of the whatever three point six or whatever. However many
people vote Massachusetts, and you can get statistics updated every
(33:22):
day on what the early voting is, and sometimes they
include like whether or not they know information about the
age differences, the party differences, and you know, obviously Democrats
are turning out in higher intensity and that reflects higher
excitement for Harris. But Biden had Bob Biden had it
(33:43):
as well.
Speaker 8 (33:44):
Most of those assumptions.
Speaker 3 (33:45):
Based on Anthony.
Speaker 2 (33:47):
Anthony, pardon me, Anthony, I have one of the call
I'd like to get to. Okay, so thank you again here,
thank you, Welcome to Anthony, Thank you. Let me go
to Scott and Quincy. Scott, you got to be quick
for me or the end of the line.
Speaker 5 (33:57):
Go right ahead, Yes, indeed, Dan, great show. Right, So, hey,
I'd like to know about the correlation between news media
outlet coverage of Trump versus Harris. When I watched the
Evening News on YouTube, you can see in their hashmarks
on the bottom of the screen, like three quarters of
(34:19):
the content on a lot of the nightly news shows,
it's like about how horrible Donald Trump is and is
that type of media coverage skewing people's opinions across the nation?
And Dan question for you should it be legal? Should
news media outlets have to give equal time to both
(34:40):
sides of the story and to do what they want.
Speaker 2 (34:43):
That's why we have a First Amendment. The First Amendment
doesn't regulate what news media outlets. I perceive on some
of the nightly newscast particularly ABC a bias, but that's
my personal observation. Might be right, it might be wrong.
Day paleologus, you do not track that correct.
Speaker 4 (35:00):
No, but it's a good question. And if there are
races where there is a high undecided, then you have
the halo effect, which is that you can be influenced
by what you what signals you are receiving, and what
you're what you're hearing, such that your opinion would be
shaped positively or negatively based on getting that repetition of
(35:22):
signals barraging into your brain cells. And where in this
situation you have a low undecided, it's probably less likely
people are pretty much hunkered down and they you know,
in terms of who they're going to vote for. But
you know, I mean, I'm in kind of an interesting
position because we have I have multiple media partners, some
(35:45):
of which take an active role politically and some which don't.
For example, we partner with the Boston Globe. We've been
a longtime partner of the Globe. They endorsed in this
presidential election USA today, which we do the other states
and national pulling with they have stained they did not
endorse for a candidate in the presidential election. So some
(36:09):
media outlets are due to ownership or due to their
political philosophies. They're dictated by how involved they get, whether
it's broadcast media or newspaper in terms of putting out
an abundance of information one way or the other.
Speaker 2 (36:27):
All right, Scott, we're flat out of time. I thank
you very much, got for your question. Thank you, sir,
Dave Paley Locus. I thank you immentally, thank you so
much for once again giving us some insights, valuable insights.
And let's see what happens on Tuesday night. Maybe we'll
talk Tuesday night at some point if you might be
available as the real votes and the real numbers start
(36:49):
to come in and see how close they are to
what you and Spencer and others.
Speaker 4 (36:54):
Have found that would be great. And thank you listeners
for those great questions.
Speaker 3 (36:59):
I appreciate the good questions. Yes there were.
Speaker 2 (37:01):
I was confused, but the guy was telling me now
about one hundred and eight states. I'm sorry about that. Anyway,
I wasn't confused, but I think he was. Thanks Dave
Paley Logus. We will talk soon. Thank you, my friend. Okay,
thanks very much. Back right after the ten o'clock news,
we're going to talk about would you buy a haunted house.
We're gonna just get a little lighter for a moment.
Speaker 3 (37:21):
We'll go back to politics later
It's Night Side with Dan Ray on WBS Constance Video.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
In just a moment, we will introduce you, reintroduce you
to friend Dave Paleologus. We had Spencer Kimball with us
last night and Dave Paleologus of Suffolk University tonight, and
we're kind of drilling down on polling up specifically political polling.
And it's not often you can get a double play
(00:29):
combination of Kimball and Paleo Logus and back to back night.
So consider yourself lucky, you know, I consider myself very
lucky here. And if you have questions for Dave Paleologus.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
You can line them up right now.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
But before we do that, got to give away a
couple of tickets here. As we are gonna give away
two tickets every night right after the nine o'clock news.
You need to be calling number ten right now six one, seven, nine, three,
one ten thirty will win two tickets to Celtic Thunder
at the Premier Theater at Foxwoods on November seventh. He'll
(01:01):
set off on a musical journey with the Irish music
sensations Celtic Thunder Live. Complete show info and tickets are
available at Foxwoods dot com. All you have to be
is caller number ten, and I will remind you Dan,
our producer is simply going to answer the phone call
a one, call a two, call of three and move
right through it. Uh and he will only let us
(01:24):
know when we have caller number ten and you can
call back.
Speaker 3 (01:27):
So if you're.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
Lucky enough to get through at call he number three,
call back, you just have to land. It's almost like
a case of musical chairs here on night Side. Do
not call on any other number because the only number
that we're going to be answer writing right now. If
you want to talk to Dave Pale Logus, you call
him the regular number which is six one seven, two,
five four to ten thirty, but the number now six
one seven, nine three one ten thirty. Call on number
(01:50):
ten will win two tickets to see Celtic Thunder next
week at the Premier Theater at Foxwoods on November seventh.
He'll set off on a musical journey with the Irish
music sensations. Celtic Thunder Live. Complete show info tickets available
at Foxwoods dot com. So as soon as we get
the number and I can see that, the phone lines
(02:11):
will lit up very quickly coming right down to it.
So it's probably I would say, I'm going to hear
pretty quickly from Dan that he has a uh, that
he has the tenth caller within a matter of a
few just got a winner right now, So you can
stop calling. We'll be back tomorrow night, right after the
nine o'clock news with another pair of tickets, and another
pair on Friday night. But we have our winter tonight,
(02:33):
so you can stop calling. Six one, seven, nine three.
Dave Paley Logus, Welcome back to Nightside.
Speaker 3 (02:39):
How are you.
Speaker 4 (02:41):
I'm wow, great to be here.
Speaker 3 (02:44):
This is showtime for you. Huh.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
This is uh, this is the week that we've all
been waiting for five days or whatever. It is Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday,
and then it's showtime.
Speaker 4 (02:57):
Oh yeah, I remember at the beginning of this year,
you know, thinking, oh, six months, I have to do
all of these polls and everything. Am I ever going
to get through it? And here it is next Tuesday.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
We talked with your colleague, uh, and he was He
said that that you're was you were his mentor. He
was with you at Suffolk for a while. He's out
in his own now is an Emerson Polster, and he
was going through how you folks have had to adapt
to technology, technical changes we no longer you know, look
at calling people on.
Speaker 3 (03:29):
Telephones and all of that.
Speaker 2 (03:32):
How tough is it to call these races, particularly a
presidential race, accurately? How tough is it to do that?
Has it become easier with technology or more difficult?
Speaker 4 (03:44):
I think it's become more difficult. You know, the technology
is terrific in terms of reaching a lot of potential voters,
but it's getting a complete you know. I mean, some
surveys are fifteen minutes long. People don't have that long
in their own lives to spend on a phone call.
(04:04):
But I mean we're you know, when we release a
national pull of a thousand respondents, we probably have to
call twenty five thirty thousand households to get the right
one thousand. That is the right proportion of all the
demographics geography, age, gender, and political party affiliation, all of that.
So it's more about getting the proportions right as it
(04:27):
is doing a poll of ten thousand people five hundred people.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
Okay, so let's assume you start out right, and what
do you do? You take a wave of you know
a couple thousand people, and at that point, when you're
starting fresh, you need certain percentage of men, certain percentage women, Democrats, Republicans, independents,
different ethnic backgrounds, different states. I assume it's like filling
(04:52):
in dots on a map.
Speaker 3 (04:54):
Or am I oversimplifying it?
Speaker 4 (04:56):
Yeah, No, it is. It is. Every poster has a
different methodology. What we do is we set parameters by geography,
and then what we'll do is we'll divide whether we're
calling nationally or particular state into regions, and then within
those regions, we fill buckets of demographics that most accurately
(05:19):
reflect what we believe will be game conditions on election
day in this election, and part of it is based
on historical trends twenty twenty exit polls and so on,
and then we kind of mix in with that current
movements both by the census and people migrating from one
area to another, and different demographic changes that may occur
(05:43):
since the last presidential election. And when you add it
all up, it comes out right. If the proportions are right,
it comes out right. And that's the most difficult part,
you know, is to make sure that you've got the
correct apustion of whites, black, old, young, Democrats, Republicans and
so on. And you know it's once you get it set,
(06:09):
once the planning of what we call the sample frame
is completed, then the phoning just kind of flows. You know,
we monitor the first night, make sure that the calls
are being done correctly, the skips are right on the questionnaire,
and it just kind of it rolls for two or
three days in the field, and then we gather the
data back and we presented and published the results.
Speaker 2 (06:32):
Now, Spencer Kimber last night said they no longer use people,
They're using computers.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
Are you still people based or we are?
Speaker 4 (06:41):
Yeah, we are. It's more expensive, and I know Spencer
has got a little bit of a tighter budget, and
his methodology is mixed. It's online panels and it's either
our methodology. They do use some live caller, but it's
small percent. We have always used live callers, professional phone banks.
(07:05):
We continue to use live calls. It doesn't mean that
that's a better methodology than someone else's polling, but we
found it to be pretty good and in terms of
the accuracy, it's it's worked out well for Suffolk, Okay.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
It's worked out very well for Suffolk And by the way,
just so people understand, you do much more than political polling,
give us an idea of the scope of your operation.
Speaker 5 (07:32):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (07:33):
So, we do a lot of policy research and we
do some creative polling that a lot of a lot
of other institutes don't do. And you know, we've done
just like exclusive polls of black voters only in Michigan
and Pennsylvania this year, the only research out there that
did that. We did an exclusive pole of Hispanic voters
(07:53):
in Arizona and Nevada anticipating some of some of the
recent demographic trends. That was unique. We've pulled the French
France election a couple of cycles ago, done. We've done
issues like when the Russian Federation invaded Ukraine and there
(08:15):
were teahouses in New York that were being vandalized, Russian
tea houses because people were upset at Russia for the invasion.
It was a student inspired research. We actually polled five
hundred Russian Americans in the US and five hundred Ukrainian
Americans in the US, and we've determined that there was
not a lot of difference. Both subsets didn't like Putin,
(08:38):
didn't like Russia, and were more or less pro Ukrainian.
So we've used the research in many ways to differentiate ourselves.
We also do city view polls of urban areas on
police and racism and other urban issues. So we're using
our platform to really get into the space.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
I would assume that a lot of Russians who would
be in this country are in this country because they
don't like Putin.
Speaker 4 (09:08):
Exactly, if you.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
Don't like Putin and you're in Russia, it's probably a
tough place to live. My guest today, pale Logus, Dave,
I want to ask you a little bit.
Speaker 3 (09:16):
I know that you've just have some poles.
Speaker 2 (09:19):
You've got some poles either coming out tomorrow or came
out earlier today, different states. If I recall from our
conversation of earlier this week and might correct on that.
Speaker 4 (09:28):
Yeah, So Monday we released Wisconsin. We had Trump up
by one in Wisconsin, and we released a Wisconsin bell
Weather area, which a lot of the local people here
and know from Suffolk pass polling. We not only do
the state wide pole, which everybody does, we do the
bell Weather area, which was dor County, and Harris actually
(09:50):
did a little bit better in the bell Weather in
door County than she did in the statewide Today we
released Michigan. Michigan was a dead even race. Harris was
up one in that Bellwether Kent County, and Friday were
releasing Pennsylvania.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
Okay, I noticed that today five thirty eight dropped Trump's
chances from fifty four to fifty three out of one
hundred down to fifty one. I'd like to I know
you're not associated with five thirty eight, but your polls
are taken in consideration by then. It sounds to me
like your polls might have had an influence in that
that decision by five poin fifty eight. Did I read
that correctly?
Speaker 4 (10:28):
Yeah? They did. They did. They do use our polls,
and they incorporated that they obviously didn't expect us to
have Michigan. Even a lot of the polls have Trump
winning Michigan, but it is a coin flip right now,
and he very well could win it, but because it
is a margin of error race. But that poll did
(10:51):
impact their five thirty eight rating. And in addition to that,
CNN dropped a couple of polls today, both in Wisconsin
and Michigan, showing Harris winning by between five and six
points which was really vastly different than all of the polling,
especially the ones showing Trump leading. So that kind of
(11:13):
throw a monkey wrench into their model.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
Yeah, certainly, nothing like some surprises at the end. Will
take a break if folks would like to join the
conversation with Dave Paleologus six one, seven, two, five, four
to ten thirty six one seven, nine three one ten thirty,
and we'll we'll break down some of these states and
get some sense as to where no one's going to
(11:36):
be able to predict it for you, but you can
probably read between the lines or listen to what you
hear Dave Paleologus say and pick up some interesting insights.
Speaker 3 (11:44):
Back on Nightside right after this.
Speaker 1 (11:47):
Now back to Dan Ray live from the Window World
Nightside Studios on WBZ News Radio.
Speaker 2 (11:55):
Dave were a little short here on time to the news,
so I'm going to hold off the calls and to
right after the news and we will get to the
calls immediately. Can do you have some time to take
some calls, By the way, I don't want to be presentable.
Speaker 4 (12:06):
Absolutely, absolutely great.
Speaker 2 (12:08):
Thank you so much so. This race, I was hoping
for a decisive win for either one of the candidates,
because I think if we have to go through what
we went through in twenty twenty again with a close
race and all sorts of protestations and arguments and all that,
it looks to me like what I'm hearing you say
(12:28):
is that there's no chance that this is going to
be a big, easy win for either one of these candidates.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
This is going to go down to the wire. It
sounds to me like what you're telling me. Now, Am
I reading you correctly?
Speaker 4 (12:40):
If the polls are accurate, you're yes. But if there
is a polling miss across the board by even two
or three points, Kamalin Harris could sweep or Trump could sweep.
So it really will depend on the sort of the
aggregate of the polling averages in each of the states.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
Okay, I got a quick question in the past. In
twenty sixteen and even in twenty twenty, Trump did better
than he was polling every once I think familiar with
the numbers. You know, Joe Biden was ahead of him
by a certain percentage points in certain states. Hillary Clinton
was even further ahead of him. Is there a hidden
Trump vote out there that you folks cannot calculate or
(13:22):
have you been able to figure out how to work
that into these numbers.
Speaker 4 (13:26):
Well, it wasn't twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. Part of
the reason was that all of the pollsters weren't factoring
in education level. People with less than a college degree
disproportionately support Trump, people with a college degree or better
disproportionately support the Democratic nominee for president. I think the
polling community caught up in twenty twenty, but they didn't
(13:51):
include what we call the recall question, which is who
did you vote for in the last election, Which means,
if you have a poll today, h and you ask
the recall question, who did you vote for in twenty twenty,
and it's fifteen points higher for Biden or for Trump,
(14:11):
you know that the polling subsample is wrong, and so
pulses need to adjust for that. If you include both
the educational the correct proportions of educational attainment, and the
recall question from the previous election, you'll probably do a
pretty good job calling the race.
Speaker 2 (14:31):
So then you think that there is something in that
Trump camp who was saying, oh, you know, as long
as it's tied, Trump's going to win by four or
five points, because that's that's been his track. But what
you're saying is that that now has been calculated in
and that quote unquote hidden Trump vote is probably not
there as strong this time as it was four years
(14:54):
ago or eight years ago.
Speaker 4 (14:56):
I don't I don't think to the extent that there
was an over an overcall in twenty twenty twenty sixteen.
It was a very big gap twenty twenty, a gap,
but not as big. I think that the polling community
is catching up with the Trump factor. There are some
people who think that Trump will be overpolled. If you
(15:17):
look at the polling and the Republican primaries back in
the spring, Trump was overpolled and he wasn't hitting the
mark as high as what the pollsters had him at.
So there is a school of thought. There are people
out there who say, maybe Kamala Harris is being underpolled,
especially in communities and rural communities where people don't want
(15:40):
to say they're voting Democratic in a rural area to
a pollster, and it's more of a closet goal for
the Democrat. So I don't buy into, well, you know,
we're all missing Trump by five or six points across
the board. I could be wrong, but I think the
polling community has kind of caught.
Speaker 5 (15:58):
Up with that.
Speaker 2 (15:59):
Okay, and my last question before we go to the news,
and then we'll go to phone calls right after that.
Trump seems to be, for the polls I see, seems
to be doing better with black and Latino voters than
he has in the past and other Republicans. Is that
number going to melt between now and Tuesday or or
(16:21):
do you think that's going to hold from what you've seen.
Speaker 4 (16:24):
Well, first of all, Harris is going to win both
blacks and overwhelmingly and Hispanics pretty comfortably. The only problem
Harris has is young Black men ages thirty eighteen to
thirty four. Those voters are voting for either Trump or
third party in higher proportions than four years ago. Hispanics
(16:47):
it's eighteen eight It's young Hispanic men and middle aged
Hispanic men. Because we did in our Hispanic only poland Nevada.
In Arizona ages eighteen to fifty, they were voting for
Trump by twelve thirteen points, whereas they were splitting evenly
between Trump and Biden four years ago. So those are
(17:07):
the if you micro target just those categories, those are
the only categories within Hispanic and Black which are problematic
for Harris, and she still hasn't cracked that yet. She
still hasn't won back the young black voter, a young
black male voter, and the young male Hispanic voter and
middle aged male Hispanic voter.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
So the actual voted twenty twenty with Biden amongst black voters.
Speaker 3 (17:34):
And I'm sure you know this so off the top
of your head, I don't.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
It was by something like ninety percent and Trump was
nine percent.
Speaker 4 (17:44):
Yeah, it was not. In the swing states, it was
ninety two to seven, Okay, swing and right now and
right now and right now, Harris is like eighty to
fifteen or eighty to sixteen, which you would say, well,
that's still great, and it is great, but it's not
the night. She's got to get up to ninety percent
in the black community, and young black men are holding
(18:06):
that number down a little bit. And the reason is
because in Pennsylvania, which is really a red state except
for Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, black voters have to overwhelmingly deliver
a big margin coming out of Philadelphia County in order
to carry Pennsylvania. Same thing with Detroit carrying it into
the rural areas of Michigan.
Speaker 2 (18:27):
So if Harris can't get up to that to the
Biden level in a really close race, why does she
make up that difference. If she can't make it up
amongst you know, young black men.
Speaker 4 (18:40):
She makes it up in two areas. Number One, older voters.
She's polling older voters better than Biden did. Believe it
or not, Trump was winning. Trump was winning older voters.
In the exit polls, She's capturing more older voters than
Biden did four years ago. And there were some Republicans,
disaffected Republicans where Haley voters who will never vote for
(19:02):
Harris but they haven't really warmed up to Trump. They
are voting for Trump, but in many of these state
ballots they have multiple other third party options, yep. And
they could just say, look, I'm going to vote for
the Libertarian candidate or the Constitutional Party candidate, and that
would be costly to Trump.
Speaker 2 (19:20):
I assume his pollsters, Trump's posters are telling him the
same thing. They must be seeing the same numbers you're seeing.
Why do you think do you think that Trump, at
some point in the next few days is going to
say I got to call NICKI Haley and I got
to make some appearances with Nicki Haley.
Speaker 4 (19:37):
Oh yeah, I absolutely believe that. You know, I just
saw Nicki Haley interviewed and she was campaigning for McCormick
in Pennsylvania, and they were like, are you're going to
be with Trump? And she basically said, I haven't heard
from him since June. I think you heard that.
Speaker 3 (19:56):
I heard that.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
So how can Trump be that dumb or that's stubborn? If, if,
if that could be what he needs to push himself
over the line.
Speaker 3 (20:06):
That's that's to me interesting.
Speaker 4 (20:08):
Yeah, I mean it's kind of a character flaw. It's
a character flaw. He doesn't he doesn't want anyone taking
credit If he believes he's gonna win, he doesn't want
anybody taking credit for it, especially Nikki Haley. He has
his own VP, and there's a certain pride factor which
could come back and bite him off. Yeah, that's that's
a decision that his campaign has to figure out. They
(20:29):
have to go through the poll. They won't pulling numbers
and figure that out, or it could be costly in
one or two of these swing states.
Speaker 3 (20:36):
Maybe they're running out of time.
Speaker 2 (20:38):
As simple as that, David, let's do this, Let's let's
hold on. We'll get callers on the other side. We'll
be right back. I promise I'll have a quick newscast
to be right back.
Speaker 3 (20:47):
We'll go to the callers. My name's Dan Ray.
Speaker 2 (20:50):
His is Day Pale Logus, along with Spencer Kimball and
John Zogby. I don't think you can find better pollsters
than these three gentlemen, and I get a sense that
all three of them are seeing this fairly similarly. I
just commend them to you. It's your decision whether you
want to believe him or not. We'll be back on
Nightside six one, seven, two, five, four, ten thirty or
(21:11):
six one, seven, nine three thirty. You can talk to
a polster, one of the best, live right after the news.
Speaker 1 (21:19):
It's Night Side with Dan d Boston's news Radio.
Speaker 2 (21:24):
Well, ready to go, let's I'm looking folks for questions.
You know, there's no sense of trying to argue with
Dave Pelly Logus, but ask whatever questions you like, because frankly, uh,
he's equipped with a lot of information.
Speaker 4 (21:40):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (21:41):
It seems to me that this race has gone back
and forth Dave, and a week ago, I think the
numbers would have been a little stronger for Trump. And
maybe he's hitting a little bit of maybe he hit
a plateau, maybe he's he's sliding here. That's the only
thing I can I can figure as I follow the numbers.
You know the numbers better than me. How far off
I on that analysis?
Speaker 4 (22:01):
No, not far off at all. I mean I have
the same feeling just looking at the numbers. I think
Trump peaked probably a week or so ago, and either
the pendulum is swinging slowly back to Kamala Harris, or
maybe Trump is plateauing, as you say, and he's kind
of coasting into Tuesday. But no matter what happens, it's
(22:24):
really all about field operation right now, getting your vote
identified and knocking on doors and pulling them out on
election day.
Speaker 3 (22:33):
All right, let's go to the call.
Speaker 2 (22:35):
It's gonna go first to Nick and Weymouth. Nick, you
are first this hour a Night'sie with Suffolk University poster
Dave Pale logus. Go ahead, Nick, Okay. If Nick's not ready,
we're gonna move on. We're putting Nick on hold. He's
obviously not ready, and we're gonna go to Dan. Please
put Nick on hold, if you would, thank you very much.
Speaker 3 (22:54):
Let's go to Stephen Cambridge, Steven Cambridge, You're first up.
Go right ahead, Steve.
Speaker 6 (23:02):
People who will answer posters and people who won't, So
to some degree, anybody who answers a poster is self selecting.
Do you ever think about that? And do you have
any way to control for that?
Speaker 2 (23:17):
I clipped you at the beginning. That was my mistake, Steve,
I clipped you at the beginning. Just rephrase that question
quickly for Dave Paleologus plays.
Speaker 6 (23:25):
There are people who will answer posters questions and people
who will never answer posters questions. So to some degree,
the people who answer posters questions are self selecting part
of the population. Does Dave have any way of controlling
for that or does he ever think about that?
Speaker 3 (23:43):
Great question?
Speaker 4 (23:44):
Yeah, I do think about it. And the answer to
the question is that the that person who doesn't answer
the call does not have any unique demographic that we
won't pick up at some point with numerous trials. In
other words, if that person is a conservative white male
between the ages of thirty and forty five, some not
(24:08):
every you know, not every white male between thirty and
forty five has that resistance to being interviewed. And so
the key is that every demographic is represented, and some
demographics are harder to get others than others. For example,
what we do in the last night of calling is
(24:29):
we what we call quota phil which means that if
there are demographics that are lower that we need to increase,
we have two options. We can either weight the sample
at the end or fill quotas. I don't like waiting
is a general rule, because it pulls another demographic out
of whack. It's like whackamo. You adjust for one demographic
(24:50):
and something else pops up and it's out of whack,
and you adjust for that and so on. So what
I would rather do is fill quotas. So it's time consuming,
it costs a lot of money, but I think it's
well worth it if you can fill quotas and have
a balanced survey responding pool that matches the correct proportions demographically.
Speaker 6 (25:09):
Dave one more question, and I mean this respectfully. Definitely,
all of this polling makes for very good news copy
and the public likes it. Makes everything exciting. Do you
see it serving any real purpose in terms of what's
(25:30):
good for the country or what's good for our democracy,
et cetera, et cetera. Do you see any real purpose
in it.
Speaker 4 (25:37):
Yeah, I do. I mean, I'm very bullish on it.
I mean, we did on an entire poll on sexual harassment
in the workplace, sexual assault. It had an incredible amount
of staying power. We called we did a poll of
unregistered unlikely voters, which nobody pulls. Everybody polls likely voters,
and we found really interesting findings about the one hundred
(25:59):
million people who won't vote in the United States who
are eligible to vote. So I think the polling does
teach us a lot and informs us of how we
can be better as a society. One of the projects
we did at the university was we did a poll
of Newark residents. Because Newark had a consent decree against
(26:20):
itself with the Department of Justice, and the DJ approached
Suffolk asking us to bid on it. We did a
survey of residents of Newark and we made some really
stiff recommendations for the Newark Police Department, some of which
they adopted, some of which they didn't. The year after
that poll was published, not a shot was fired by
a Newark police officer in an entire year, and so
(26:44):
one of my students, Keith Horvath, who still works for me.
I remember him saying. He came right out of the
classroom and he said, I can't believe that this poll.
I feel like the poll we worked on saved lives.
I've never ever felt that way. And I was stuck
fund to hear a student say that to me, that
a poll, just a little poll, this student believed saved lies.
(27:08):
But the truth is is that the police department adopted
the recommendations and maybe some good can come out of it.
It's not a perfect unit.
Speaker 6 (27:16):
About the presidential polling. Do you think good can come
out of it?
Speaker 4 (27:20):
I think it can in terms of the undecided voters,
and you can be informed about like what under like
we're undecided thinking of voting. For example, we published third
party candidates everybody that's listed on the ballot. Let's say
that Jill Stein and Cornell West get a larger proportion
(27:41):
of the vote than we're currently showing at the expense
of Kamala Harris. Trump could win that state if Jill
Stein upticks and Cornell West uptics in Michigan, for example,
that is an important finding, and that's why we report
every candidate that's listed on a ballot. Some posters they'll
do just Kamala Harris versus Donald Trump, two people. Then
(28:04):
they'll have an option for another, uh, you know, an
other choice. And if the respondent names it, they names it,
they name it. We actually name all of the candidates
because those little third party candidates at are half a
point or a quarter of a point in a tight
race could make all the difference in the world.
Speaker 6 (28:22):
Thank you both, Thank you, Dan, Thank you Dave.
Speaker 2 (28:25):
Great question marks, great questions and great answers. Will be
back good Night Side right after this.
Speaker 1 (28:31):
Now back to Dan Ray live from the Window World
Night Side Studios on WBZ News Radio.
Speaker 2 (28:38):
Back to the phones for Poster Suffolk, Poster Dave PAILLEYO logus,
Nick and Weymouth.
Speaker 3 (28:43):
You're up, Hope, you're ready? Go ahead? Nick?
Speaker 7 (28:45):
Is that ready?
Speaker 1 (28:46):
Hey?
Speaker 7 (28:47):
I'm looking and what I like to look at is
the real clear polling electoral map. What I'm looking at
the toss ups states have recently increased. Okay, they're like
a heart at night now. So it's been reshuffling.
Speaker 3 (29:04):
And so there's only fifty states.
Speaker 2 (29:07):
What are you talking about? One hundred and eight toss
up states? Come on, Nick, what are you talking about?
Speaker 7 (29:11):
Is a hard and eight toss up states could go
either way, not staying.
Speaker 3 (29:14):
There's only we only have fifty states.
Speaker 7 (29:17):
Excuse me, one hundred and eight electoral votes.
Speaker 2 (29:20):
Okay, okay, okay, now you've clarified.
Speaker 3 (29:24):
That's good. Nick, go ahead. What's your question?
Speaker 7 (29:26):
They for the states that are toss ups. Okay, that
you add up the electoral votes.
Speaker 5 (29:31):
That's the hundred I get it, I get it.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
Nick. You're wasting my time. What you question?
Speaker 7 (29:35):
Let me finish. I'll finish. Okay, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia.
Speaker 2 (29:40):
We know the toss up states. Nick, we know the
toss up states. You're wasted my time.
Speaker 7 (29:45):
If he wins, If Trump wins Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina,
in New Hampshire, he'll get to seventy two based on
my on my calculations.
Speaker 3 (29:56):
Good for you, Good for you.
Speaker 7 (29:58):
So what you question, Amphony pencil.
Speaker 2 (30:00):
See you that good night? Okay, I have no he's
just wasting my time here. Let's keep going here, Dave.
There's all sorts of, you know, variations and permutations that
can get different candidates to different numbers.
Speaker 3 (30:14):
That's part of the fun of it.
Speaker 2 (30:16):
Let me go next to Anthony and Cambridge. Anthony A
little bit more direct on your question. Go ahead, Anthony.
Speaker 8 (30:22):
Thank you, Dan, and great to have Dave on. He's fantastic, Dave.
How much how much time money is invested now in
trying to figure out who has voted early and how
to direct the money towards certain demographics. You mentioned that
all the voters have started to swing towards Harris. That's
(30:43):
a group that I would assume would be higher in
early voting. How hot is it to track exactly who
has voted? And I'm just to close, I'm fascinated with
early voting. I think there's a bit of momentum going
for Harris. Seemed to be a little scale and it
could be ironic that, you know, with Trump being so
(31:05):
against early voting, it could turn out that he's the
biggest beneficiary of it if her momentum ends up, you know,
coming at the end and not having the impact it would.
But can you talk a little bit about early voting
and how that impacts everything, because it's it's a fascinating topic, Dan, Thank.
Speaker 3 (31:23):
You, David.
Speaker 2 (31:25):
Sure.
Speaker 4 (31:25):
So, the early voting has been Harris in most every
pole that we've been doing, by like thirty points. Now,
that's not unusual. Biden won by thirty one in early
voting in our last national poll four years ago. Harris
was winning by twenty nine in the national poll. So
she's right there in terms of the early voting, and
(31:48):
was seeing the same thing in the swing states as well.
And there were you know, in the swing states for example.
You know, we had a large early lead among Wisconsin
early voters and Trump was winning by one. So the
early voting is an indicator, but it will shift because
(32:11):
mail in voting is all Democratic pretty much. Early in
person voting is more of a mix, and election day
voting is overwhelmingly Trump. So Trump has made improvements in Nevada.
You mentioned Nevada, caller, Nevada is one of those states
where Republicans are overperforming on the early voting, especially in
(32:34):
the rural counties.
Speaker 9 (32:36):
All right, but your data is based on polling people
who have voted early, not assumptions based on the demographics
or of the data of people who voted. How much
information do you get from the local and state elected
you know, election officials on who has voted.
Speaker 4 (32:58):
We watched that and it changes from day to day,
and you can you know, there's a website where you
can track how how much of the early voting has
come in, Like in Massachusetts, I think a million two
have already voted something like that, a million three out
of the whatever three point six or whatever. However many
people vote Massachusetts, and you can get statistics updated every
(33:22):
day on what the early voting is, and sometimes they
include like whether or not they know information about the
age differences, the party differences, and you know, obviously Democrats
are turning out in higher intensity and that reflects higher
excitement for Harris. But Biden had Bob Biden had it
(33:43):
as well.
Speaker 8 (33:44):
Most of those assumptions.
Speaker 3 (33:45):
Based on Anthony.
Speaker 2 (33:47):
Anthony, pardon me, Anthony, I have one of the call
I'd like to get to. Okay, so thank you again here,
thank you, Welcome to Anthony, Thank you. Let me go
to Scott and Quincy. Scott, you got to be quick
for me or the end of the line.
Speaker 5 (33:57):
Go right ahead, Yes, indeed, Dan, great show. Right, So, hey,
I'd like to know about the correlation between news media
outlet coverage of Trump versus Harris. When I watched the
Evening News on YouTube, you can see in their hashmarks
on the bottom of the screen, like three quarters of
(34:19):
the content on a lot of the nightly news shows,
it's like about how horrible Donald Trump is and is
that type of media coverage skewing people's opinions across the nation?
And Dan question for you should it be legal? Should
news media outlets have to give equal time to both
(34:40):
sides of the story and to do what they want.
Speaker 2 (34:43):
That's why we have a First Amendment. The First Amendment
doesn't regulate what news media outlets. I perceive on some
of the nightly newscast particularly ABC a bias, but that's
my personal observation. Might be right, it might be wrong.
Day paleologus, you do not track that correct.
Speaker 4 (35:00):
No, but it's a good question. And if there are
races where there is a high undecided, then you have
the halo effect, which is that you can be influenced
by what you what signals you are receiving, and what
you're what you're hearing, such that your opinion would be
shaped positively or negatively based on getting that repetition of
(35:22):
signals barraging into your brain cells. And where in this
situation you have a low undecided, it's probably less likely
people are pretty much hunkered down and they you know,
in terms of who they're going to vote for. But
you know, I mean, I'm in kind of an interesting
position because we have I have multiple media partners, some
(35:45):
of which take an active role politically and some which don't.
For example, we partner with the Boston Globe. We've been
a longtime partner of the Globe. They endorsed in this
presidential election USA today, which we do the other states
and national pulling with they have stained they did not
endorse for a candidate in the presidential election. So some
(36:09):
media outlets are due to ownership or due to their
political philosophies. They're dictated by how involved they get, whether
it's broadcast media or newspaper in terms of putting out
an abundance of information one way or the other.
Speaker 2 (36:27):
All right, Scott, we're flat out of time. I thank
you very much, got for your question. Thank you, sir,
Dave Paley Locus. I thank you immentally, thank you so
much for once again giving us some insights, valuable insights.
And let's see what happens on Tuesday night. Maybe we'll
talk Tuesday night at some point if you might be
available as the real votes and the real numbers start
(36:49):
to come in and see how close they are to
what you and Spencer and others.
Speaker 4 (36:54):
Have found that would be great. And thank you listeners
for those great questions.
Speaker 3 (36:59):
I appreciate the good questions. Yes there were.
Speaker 2 (37:01):
I was confused, but the guy was telling me now
about one hundred and eight states. I'm sorry about that. Anyway,
I wasn't confused, but I think he was. Thanks Dave
Paley Logus. We will talk soon. Thank you, my friend. Okay,
thanks very much. Back right after the ten o'clock news,
we're going to talk about would you buy a haunted house.
We're gonna just get a little lighter for a moment.
Speaker 3 (37:21):
We'll go back to politics later
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