November 1, 2024 • 39 mins
We are only days away from the 2024 presidential election as each candidate makes their final push before election day! What are the latest polls saying? What are the most important issues for voters this November? National pollster John Zogby joined us to discuss!
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
It's night Sime with Dan Ray. I'm tell you easy, Boston.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Well, the election of twenty twenty four now is a
mere days away, and it's really almost hours away at
this point when you think about it. We've been looking
at this for well, some people have been looking at
it since January of twenty twenty one, or since November
of twenty twenty. Certainly we've been immersed in this for
a year. No one has been immersed in these sorts
(00:29):
of elections for a longer period of time with a
greater record of accuracy than my good friend John Zogby
of John Zogby Strategies. John, thanks so much for making
yourself available. I so appreciate you taking the time to
be with us tonight.
Speaker 3 (00:43):
Thank you.
Speaker 4 (00:44):
Jan anytime the Friday before a presidential election in the tradition.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
For us, it has become that.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
By the way, if you want to ask John zog
Be a question, John is going to stay with us
until ten thirty. His time is veryval So you want
to get on, and you want to get on early.
The other thing wech you'd like to mention is that
Zogbie Strategies does a webinar on Monday at noontime, tell
(01:14):
us about the webinar and how people can participate in
that webinar if they're not fortunate enough to reach you tonight.
Speaker 4 (01:20):
John, so the webinar at noon on Monday. Best thing
to do, I think is to write to Jeremy at
John Zogby Strategies dot com. He'll get your registered and
show you how to register Jeremy at John Zogbi Strategies
(01:42):
dot com. And what we're doing is we're doing our
final poll tomorrow and Sunday, trying to take it as
close to the end as we can a nationwide poll
and see if we're going to get a break one
way or another. So far there is no break.
Speaker 3 (02:01):
When will you be out in the field.
Speaker 2 (02:03):
You're going to be out tomorrow and Sunday or Sunday
and Monday, or when.
Speaker 4 (02:07):
Tomorrow and Sunday and then we'll release their belts at
noon on Monday.
Speaker 2 (02:13):
Okay, now you have been And one of the reasons
I love to talk to you is that you have
basically had a very good winning percentage.
Speaker 3 (02:24):
On these polls.
Speaker 2 (02:26):
Of going back to many elections, you've called these polls correctly,
I believe since nineteen ninety six correct me.
Speaker 5 (02:34):
If I'm wrong, that's right, that is correct, okay.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
And some of them were very I mean, there might
have been a couple of relatively easy ones in there.
Speaker 3 (02:46):
But you have the.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
Bush Gore poll from two thousand, which was correct. The
Kerry Bush race in twenty twenty four was close. John
McCain Barack Obama was close. You know, obviously you were
able to figure the upset, the Trump upset over Hillary Clinton.
(03:10):
What did you see in that in twenty sixteen, And
are you seeing anything that is similar because some people
are saying that that Trump is undervalued in polls, that
there's always sort of like this three or four percent
of of a hidden Trump vote. What is your gut
(03:32):
at this person? What is you what do you write?
Speaker 4 (03:35):
So a couple of things about twenty sixteen, I did
not poll. Then I had sold my company and we
had just started a new one, and so I didn't
pull it. But I'll take I'll mention the other polls
which really were spot on. They may not have gotten
the correct percentages at the at the time, but they
(03:58):
followed the trajectory. And what clearly if you look at
the twenty sixteen polls correctly, you see Hillary Clinton going
from a nine, ten to eleven point lead ten days
before the election to a one two three point lead
in each of those battleground states, or even a tie
or deficit like Michigan or North Carolina. And so the
(04:22):
trajectory was going against Hillary Clinton. So it really didn't
surprise me that the next day she won the popular vote,
but she lost many of those battleground states. I'm not
so concerned on my end about a hidden Trump vote
because I've been doing this for forty years and I
(04:44):
have always found, from the early days the landline telephones,
Republicans seem to be less inclined to answer polls, and
same thing with online polls as well. So I build
into my polling sample awaiting mechanism that automatically bumps the
(05:07):
percentage of Republicans up a couple of points to reflect
what I believe will be the electorate on either having
voted already or on election day. So I'm not worried
about that hidden Trump vote. I think I've got it covered.
Speaker 2 (05:24):
Okay, let's talk about I've been saying on air, I
would hope that, however the election turned out, there was
a decisive victory. I don't expect a LinkedIn Johnson type
landslide or Richard Nixon Ronald Reagan forty nine to one landslide.
But I was hoping it'd be decisive to diminish the
(05:47):
hard feelings that I fear a close election will result in.
It sounds to me at this point that my hope
for a decisive victory in either direction is not likely.
Speaker 4 (05:59):
Well, we don't have any evidence of that yet, Dan.
Right now it is Razor Sin. The biggest lead in
any of the battleground states is Donald Trump leading in
Georgia by about two and a half percentage points. But
a more recent poll has the two of them tied.
Speaker 6 (06:18):
And so.
Speaker 4 (06:20):
We're not finding a trend line breaking one way or another.
But this is Friday night, and I can point to
two elections, the nineteen eighty election Carter versus Reagan, where
the dam burst over the weekend of that election and
by Monday, the photos of Jimmy Carter was showing him despondent.
(06:42):
There were no public polls published, but privately Carter's polls
showed that he was going to lose in a landslide
the damn broke. And then in twenty twelve, something that
is relevant to your listeners, particularly in Massachusetts, is that
Obama and Romney was a razorsin race right on up
(07:04):
to that weekend. I polled that race, and I started
to see younger voters who had been disappointed in Barack
Obama's first term saying they're coming out to vote and
breaking big, particularly young women, towards Obama.
Speaker 6 (07:20):
And then, as you.
Speaker 4 (07:21):
Know, in the electoral college and popular vote, it was
really a landslide, but it had.
Speaker 3 (07:26):
Been fulled.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
Twenty twelve in retrospect. Which stunned me was that President
Obama actually won more popular vote. He won sixty nine
million popular votes in two thousand and eight, and he's
one of the few presidents who had his popular vote
number drop by about four million.
Speaker 3 (07:51):
I think I'm right in these numbers.
Speaker 2 (07:52):
John, he only against Romney won sixty five million votes, right.
Romney did not build on the McCain number at all.
And that, to me was was really mystifying because you
know Romney, we knew him in Massachusetts.
Speaker 3 (08:14):
He had been pretty effective here.
Speaker 2 (08:16):
And if someone had told me the weekend before that
President Obama was going to be down five four million votes,
I would have bet a lot of money that Mitt
Romney was going to win, but those votes went away,
but they didn't go to the polls for Mitt Romney.
So I don't know if there's a lesson here. I
think it's going to be very tough for Vice President
(08:38):
Harris to get to the eighty one million figure because
Joe Biden, you know, he he's he won the most
popular votes of any president in history, eighty one million.
Speaker 4 (08:53):
Votes, and it was a far different Joe Biden in
twenty twenty. He was Uncle Joe, and he had that
he had the tragedies in his life. You know, twenty
four percent of likely voters has had one or two
major personal catastrophes in their lives. I found this out
(09:19):
for my own polling, and in that regard, Joe Biden
was able to bond with people. He had a leveling
experience that people could identify with, which you know, he
lost frankly and by twenty twenty four. You know, we
don't have to go into that. And I'm not sure
Kamala Harris has that kind of leveling experience, especially to
(09:45):
given the fact that she was really trashed by her
own party throughout her vice presidency. In fact, one of
the last minute efforts that the White House officials, campaign
I should say campaign officials were making to keep Biden
in the race was, God, you don't want Cammel to
(10:06):
be the nominee. And then all of a sudden, late
July happens she's the nominee. And you know, that's a
very short period to cover all those battleground states and
to define yourself.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
Yeah, it's it's it's going to be fascinating. My guess
is John Zogby. If you'd like to talk to John,
I'm going to give you the number and you get
it down quickly because he's going to be gone by
ten thirty. He's going to be a busy guy this weekend.
And I still appreciate him spending any time with us.
Six one, seven, two, five four, ten thirty six one seven,
nine three one, ten thirty. If you get in right now,
I can get you on with John Zogby.
Speaker 3 (10:42):
We'll be back.
Speaker 2 (10:43):
Any question you'd like to ask. I think he stated
it pretty clearly that as of now, there is no
clear conclusion that he's been able to draw. I look
at all the other posters, and I think that they
are in consensus on this. But he did say that Hey,
sometimes in the final weekend before an election, and he
cites a couple of years, nineteen eighty and twenty twelve,
(11:06):
the undecided's break. I guess my counter argument would be,
I don't know how many undeciders are still out there.
That'll be my question coming back for John Zogby. Have
we exhausted the bucket of undecided? We'll be back on
Nightside with some phone calls and some more conversation with
John Zogby as we we go into the weekend before
the election of twenty twenty four. We only do this
(11:28):
every four years, everyone, so this is a really important
period of.
Speaker 3 (11:31):
Time in our history.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
Back on Nightside right after this, It's night Side.
Speaker 4 (11:35):
With Dan Ray.
Speaker 1 (11:36):
Hey Dan, WBZ Boston's News Radio. Now back to Dan
Ray live from the Window World Nightside Studios on WBZ
News Radio.
Speaker 2 (11:48):
Before we get to a couple of calls and we will,
I promise John Zogby, are there any undecided's, truly undecideds
left in this race?
Speaker 5 (11:56):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (11:56):
There are? And to be really, it's so much they're
going to vote for Trump or Harris.
Speaker 7 (12:01):
It's whether or not.
Speaker 4 (12:02):
They vote at all. And a lower voter turnout really
is an advantage for Donald Trump. Harris, on the other hand,
needs to get young women out to vote, working hard
to do that, but she needs as big account as
she can get.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
And none of the controversies of the last few days
seem to have had an impact. I watched these polls,
maybe not as closely as you, but I try to
watch them closely, and I don't see much movement in
the last few days, certainly not.
Speaker 4 (12:36):
On a global level, not in the national polls were
for that that are really in the states, you know,
on a micro level, if we're getting down to one
point or you know, a few hundred or a few
thousand votes differential between the two candidates. Yes, some angry
Puerto Ricans, to be sure, can make a difference. Yes,
(12:58):
some angry era Americans in Michigan and in Pennsylvania can
certainly make a difference.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
All right, We're going to go to phone calls, and again,
John Jogby, thank you so much for your time here.
I'm going to ask both of these callers who I'm
going to be trying to get to it. Let me
start off with Tom and Lynn Massachusetts. Tom quick question,
direct question for John Zogby, If you will, sir, go
right ahead.
Speaker 8 (13:21):
Okay. Three things, will hang up and listen. One, what's
his vote Jewish voters doing?
Speaker 7 (13:25):
Two?
Speaker 8 (13:27):
Do you ever consider ranked choice voting in your polling process?
And the third one is can you talk a little
about super voters? That's say thank you?
Speaker 2 (13:38):
Okay, let's start with Jewish voters. First, what's going on
with Jewish voters?
Speaker 4 (13:44):
John, The only poll I've seen about three weeks ago
shows Jewish voters. It's seventy one percent for Harris, twenty
six percent for Trump. Dan, that's about average. We haven't
seen any real opment there. The second question was the
second question was.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
Ranked choice voting, which I don't think really applies. You
can pass on that one if you want. I understand
what rank choice voting is, butl go ahead.
Speaker 4 (14:10):
I put it in locales and it's a very popular
idea wherever I polled it. But yeah, it's not relevant here, okay.
Speaker 2 (14:18):
And then so called super voters, So people who I
guess are always voting. Those are the voters, the best
voters that the campaigns like to identify the people who
you know are going to vote every time.
Speaker 6 (14:31):
Yeah, and.
Speaker 4 (14:33):
Those folks are at a time, which is where the
non super voters are too. We're not getting really any
clues here.
Speaker 2 (14:39):
Dan. All right, well, you know, hey, as you said,
we still have some time. Let me go next to
Paul in Wilkesbury, Pennsylvania. The a town of the New
York Yankees and the New York Yankees is going to
need some help next year to get over the hump.
Go ahead, Paul. We're not talking baseball. You're talking polls
with John Zogby. Garrett Ahead.
Speaker 6 (15:00):
Dan, thank you for taking my call.
Speaker 5 (15:01):
My question is on John, as you were talking about
the twenty twelve election with Mitt Romney and Barack Obama.
This is just my theory. I'll run up by John.
I think the fact that Mike Huckabee stayed in the
ray so long in the primary and he turned the
evangelical voters the instiment Rodney, but he was a warmon
he was in Romney. You know, we can say what
you want about it, but there's no reason to day
(15:23):
to the matter of religion. And Mike Kkaby did that
roundabout way. He's scared off a lot of it in
the evangelical vote by the time he ran against Barack Obama,
who I did vote for that election in twenty twenty
voting for President Obama is he got a lotted in
a few years and I was discussed with the Republicans
at the time. But my question for John is does
he think that need to do it? Rodney losing the
(15:43):
fact that Mike Knkaby stayed in the primary, that a
lot of estavaged him, and all this stuff, the art
thank you sers.
Speaker 4 (15:49):
Okay, my base was what we're Christian evangelical voters and
this is uh, Romney underperformed among evangelical voters. But I
think you're correct. I think that huckelby staying in the
race allowed that let's call it Romney hostility or anti
(16:12):
Romney sentiment to kind of congeal a little bit and
damp and turn out for him.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
Yeah, but again coming back, so let's come back to
twenty twenty four, and that is I know why Donald Trump, Well,
it seems to me that the best thing that Donald
Trump could do tomorrow would be to bring Nikki Haley
out with him to event after event after event in Pennsylvania, Michigan,
(16:41):
and Wisconsin. Pretty clear it's not going to happen. Do
you think that if you sat across the table as
a pollster and you said to Trump, if you bring
Haley out for the next two days, you're going to
win this election. If you don't bring her out, you're
going to lose it. Do you think that would change
Trump's mind? I just think that Trump is ignoring a
possibility here. And I don't understand why Nikki Haley has
(17:08):
not She's willing to appear with Trump, and he has
not accepted that that overture.
Speaker 4 (17:16):
He's obviously a very proud man, and she had the
audacity to challenge him, and even worse, she had the
audacity to get a considerable amount of votes in states
where she was already off the ballot and out of
the race. And so I could say that to Donald Trump,
but I don't have any sense at all that he
(17:37):
would hear a word that I was saying.
Speaker 2 (17:39):
Yeah, and that's a blind spot. It's almost like you
know a professional athlete who has a blind spot and
they just can't get over it. And I think that
if if he loses, and as a pretty good possibility
he is going to lose, that that's going to be
the obituary, the political obittion. Worry that he chose that
(18:02):
he would prefer to lose without Haley then to win
with him. Do you agree with me that if Haley
actually appeared with him at several campaign stops in the
next two or three days, that could be an instrumental
in a close race for him to actually achieve victory.
Speaker 3 (18:20):
I would agree with that.
Speaker 4 (18:22):
You know, Harris is vigorously going after Haley voters, and
yet these are still conservative voters who have some questions
about Kamala Harrison voting for Kamala Harris. What I don't
see Trump doing is adding on. You know, he gets
(18:42):
forty six percent of the vote the last two times
he runs. This time he's pulling about forty seven eight percent.
But he's got to get additional votes somewhere, and I
don't see where he's building.
Speaker 2 (18:57):
Yeah, I mean, if he's if he gets to forty
eight and this is by four percent, and I don't
know if there's how big a vote Jill Stein or
Cornell West or the libertarian candidate, but he kind of
he won't win with forty eight. If he gets the
forty nine percent of the popular vote, he could he
(19:18):
could win the electoral vote. In my opinion, I think
that's that differential between forty eight and forty nine is critical,
and I'm gonna ask you the question again and try
to put you in the record if if, somehow, some
way tomorrow morning he woke up and said, bring Haley,
I want Haley with me, and she decided to go.
Could that be a difference maker for him?
Speaker 4 (19:38):
From in your real it would be it's the racist close.
Trump is very close. He needs to add voters somewhere
and there. You ask about the undecided, that there are
a considerable number of Nicky Haley voters that detest Donald
Trump or have questions about him and not ready to
(20:02):
vote for Kamala Harris. You know this would be a
bridge building thing. But remember one point I need to
make is given the electoral college, in the popular vote nationally,
Kamala Harrison needs to be leading by about three points
(20:23):
in order to you know, feel comfortable about winning in
the battleground states. Remember she gets a lot of excess
Democratic votes in California, New York, Illinois, you know, very
blue states. The extra votes she doesn't need to win
the electoral college.
Speaker 2 (20:42):
And we could throw Massachusetts into that category as well. Absolutely, yeah,
John Zogby, I thank you so much. You know it's
going to be a very interesting time for all of us,
and I know that that you are going to be
in the middle of it. Again, I thank you for
your your kindness, and again the Zogby webinar is available
(21:05):
at noontime on a subscription basis. All they have to
do is go to I believe you said, Jeremy at
Zogby's Strategies. Jeremy is your son, Jeremy at Zogby Strategies.
Speaker 4 (21:17):
Dot com, Jeremy Zogby Strategies, Jeremy at John Strategies.
Speaker 2 (21:23):
Okay, great, Jeremy at John Zogby Strategies. That's an important difference.
And just or just google on John Zogby and it'll
get you there as well. John Zogby, thank you so much.
As always. Happy election Day.
Speaker 3 (21:35):
To you, my friend, You too, my friend.
Speaker 4 (21:37):
Take care all right?
Speaker 3 (21:38):
Thanks?
Speaker 2 (21:39):
All right, Now we're going to open up the lines,
and I want to the next I want to spend
the next half hour between now to eleven o'clock on
a question. And the question is why is Donald Trump
not taking the opportunity of having NICKI Haley with him
(22:02):
in the.
Speaker 3 (22:02):
Final days of this race. I know that most of
you are.
Speaker 2 (22:07):
Who want to respond to this or Trump voters, But
I'd like to hear from both Trump and Harris voters.
For the Harris voters, I ask, do you fear that
or are you so convinced that he won't do it?
You don't fear it? And if you're a Trump voter,
why would your candidate not be smart enough to basically
(22:29):
put his ego in his back pocket for a couple
of days and bring out the one opponent I was Trump,
I would bring DeSantis, Rubio, all of them, and particularly
Nicki Haley. This is a question of it's all on
the line here and is his ego so overwhelming that
(22:53):
he couldnt even acknowledge that that maybe he can't win
this election on his own? That's my question. I will
have a different question at eleven o'clock tonight in the
twentieth hour. It will also deal with the election. So
for now, for the next hour and a half, we're
going to talk about the election. But I want to
(23:14):
frame the question for you. If you're a Trump supporter
and you could advise your candidate Nikki Haley on the
campaign trail for the next.
Speaker 3 (23:24):
Three days, yes or no? What say you?
Speaker 2 (23:27):
If you're a Harris supporter, do you worry or are
you so convinced that Donald Trump's ego will not permit
this that it does it.
Speaker 3 (23:38):
It's not even on your radar screen.
Speaker 2 (23:40):
We'll be back on Night's side six one, seven, two, five,
four ten thirty six one seven, nine three one ten thirty.
Then we will have a different, another challenging question, politically
challenging question at eleven tonight in the twentieth hour. I've
thought about it. We're going to in effect you a
focus group at eleven o'clock. I will explain. And again remember,
(24:01):
even if you call earlier this week, you have a
hall pass in the twentieth.
Speaker 3 (24:05):
Hour, in the eleven o'clock hour, back on Nightside after
this Night Side.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
With Dan ray On.
Speaker 1 (24:11):
Don youbzy Boston's News Radio. You're on night Side with
Dan ray On, doll you bzy Boston's News Radio.
Speaker 3 (24:20):
Okay, here's my theory in the race.
Speaker 2 (24:23):
And I've said this from the get go, and I
know that some of you who are Trump supporters will
be pleased, will be displeased to hear this. I'm not
sure that Donald Trump can get fifty percent of the vote.
I'm not even sure you can get forty eight percent
of the vote. John Zogby alluded to that last hour.
(24:44):
Unless Trump can get at least forty eight or forty
nine percent of the popular vote, he will not win
the electoral college vote. He was able to do that
with Hillary Clinton in twenty sixteen. And I have said
all along, and I'll stick with what I've said all
along in the past. Donald Trump has surprised me. After
the Billy Bush broadcast tape was exposed back in twenty sixteen,
(25:08):
I felt it was imperative for Trump to walk away
from the race. He chose not to, and he surprised
us all What surprised me in defeating Hillary Clinton. Now,
that race was messed up on a number of different
times by James Comy, the FBI director, a couple of
times that seemed to help Hillary Clinton and a couple
(25:29):
of times that seemed to help Donald Trump. And I
think that was the weakness of Comby that I think
he was very much involved politically, much much too close politically.
But I've said all along, could Trump win the nomination? Yeah,
he could because he's the strongest Republican. He has a
base that within the Republican Party. But I have not
(25:51):
felt that with all the baggage that he's carrying that
he would win an election that I've gone back and
forth on the In my mind, certainly after looking at
the debate with Joe Biden in late June, it was
apparent to me that Joe Biden couldn't win, and if
Joe Biden couldn't win, that would mean Donald Trump would win.
(26:12):
The Democrats came to that conclusion pretty quickly, and they
obviously have now nominated the Vice president Harris. She is
a weak Democratic candidate. I cannot think of a weaker
Democratic candidate for a whole bunch of reasons. Her background
(26:33):
and the positions that she took in twenty nineteen.
Speaker 3 (26:37):
We know all of those.
Speaker 2 (26:39):
She was against fracking, she was in favor of transgender
surgery for inmates, for prison inmates. It's almost like a
benefit of going to prison. She wanted to get to
EV cars mandate EV's on and on and on and on.
(27:01):
But she's hanging in there. I don't know how many
people unless something gets something happens over the weekend. And
my argument is that the thing that the Trump could do,
the old the thing that only that Trump could control,
former President Trump could control, would be to reconcile with
Nicki Haley and bring Nicki Haley out on the campaign
(27:24):
trail with him. I think that could potentially put him
over the top. But failing that, I think he's going
to be close. And it's stunning, stunning that he is
still this close. But I don't think he can win
the general election without Nikki a presence of Nicki Haley
(27:47):
on at some campaign stops, you can agree or disagree.
Let's go to Bill and Norfolk. Bill, you were next
this hour on Nightside.
Speaker 9 (27:54):
Go right ahead, Yeah, Dan if I was counseling the
President Trump and I am supporting him this time. I
was absolutely bring out Mario, bring out Nikki, bring out
the Santas. In twenty sixteen, he was my seventeenth pick
out of the seventeen people we had running, you know.
(28:16):
And in twenty twenty and I voted for arm eventually
voted for him. In twenty twenty. I was with Tim
Scott this time, gave him money. I went to Desantas
and then I went to Nikki and now I'm with
with Trump. But he needs to bring the middle of
the road sort of moderate Republicans out. This weekend Saturday Sunday, Monday,
(28:37):
and they need to make the case. It's a pretty
pretty reasonable case. I think I disagree with you on
the popular voie irrelevant. Man, it's going to come down
to about ten thousand votes in Pennsylvania, and if he
wins that, he wins this whole event. He could absolutely
before the Febber.
Speaker 2 (28:57):
No, I do understand that. But what I'm saying to
you is when you even when you way in that
California is going to be overwhelming for Harris, as John
Zogby just reference. Everyone knows that Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, these
are states where like in a football season, the team
(29:18):
runs up, you know, a forty eight to ten victory.
In the old days, the Patriots beat the Jets forty
eight to ten, but they will then had to face
a good NFC team, And that's the same situation he
faces now. The question is not.
Speaker 3 (29:34):
The question is.
Speaker 2 (29:37):
He's got to somehow keep he Look it realistically, you
can take all of the California votes and the excess
Illinois votes, and the Maryland votes and the Massachusetts votes.
Then he wins some states big. He wins a big
vote in Florida, maybe he wins a big vote in Texas,
he wins some big votes in places like Alabama, Mississippi,
(29:59):
West Virginia, so all of those kind of balance off.
So he can lose the popular vote.
Speaker 6 (30:05):
If he's forty eight, of course, but if.
Speaker 2 (30:08):
He's forty seven and she's fifty three, the math won't work.
Speaker 9 (30:13):
And I don't think the polls are telling us that.
I think it's closer. I think it's jumpall. It's really
one of the blue all states, and I think it's Pennsylvania.
Speaker 2 (30:23):
Well, but he's also got to carry he's got to
win Georgia, he's got to win North Carolina. I mean,
no one has to win all seven, but the more
important states. You know, Nevada is not as populous as Georgia,
and so it's right, there's all sorts of variations and
permutations here that are that are important. But I just
(30:44):
don't understand for him to be this close, after all
he has gone through and as much on the line.
If he loses, he very well well he will be
prosecuted and he very well may end up in jail. Okay,
So for him, it's stutterly with you, Yeah, it's not
only getting re elected and doing something that that only
(31:04):
one other president Brover Cleveland has ever done have non
consecutive terms, but his his freedoms as an American citizen
would be in jeopardy. He gets elected, he can basically
write off most of this stuff and he's not going
to be prosecuted, even in the state cases, and they're
all going to go away.
Speaker 9 (31:24):
Well, I think, Kamala, you were right, And Kamala, she's
by far the worst candidate. And I'm probably three or
four years younger than you, by far the worst candidate
of my lifetime.
Speaker 6 (31:35):
As a president.
Speaker 9 (31:36):
I mean, she she can't speak.
Speaker 6 (31:38):
It's unbelievable.
Speaker 9 (31:39):
It's really unbelievable.
Speaker 2 (31:40):
And the fact that that she's that she's holding at
that close says to me, can he get to forty
eight or forty nine?
Speaker 9 (31:50):
Again? You know it's not her, Dan, it's if it
was a door knob, it'll be fifty to fifty against Trump.
Caps out of this country, aged Trump.
Speaker 3 (32:00):
But right, But what I'm saying is.
Speaker 2 (32:04):
No, I understand that, But you're going to vote him
because because you agree with his policies. But he now
has to he has to, in my opinion, reach out
to Nikki Haley and sign a peace treaty. She's indicated
to him. She's endorsed him, she's campaigned for him, she's
campaigned for the Republicans. She didn't go away, she hasn't
gone away and hid hid. She's out there.
Speaker 9 (32:26):
She's he's just so egotistical. He can't put it away, Dan,
you can't.
Speaker 2 (32:31):
Well, well then that if he can't put it away,
if he can't put the ego away, he may end
up being put away.
Speaker 3 (32:37):
And he should understand it.
Speaker 9 (32:38):
There's only one person who can speak to that man,
and it's his son, Donald Jor. And he's going to
get to the guys and say, hey, you need to
see his dad and do it now.
Speaker 3 (32:50):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (32:50):
And I get if he waits till Monday, it'll be
too late because this it's got to soak in for
a couple of days. Hey, Bill Love you call me man.
Please continue to listen. We'll talk soon. Okay, thanks all.
Coming right back on the other side, I got James
and Roxbury, Rochelle and Weymouth and then we go to
the twentieth hour back on Nightside.
Speaker 3 (33:05):
Right after this Night Side with Dan Ray on.
Speaker 1 (33:10):
Boston's News. Now back to Dan Ray Live from the
Window World nights Side Studios on w BZ News Radio.
Speaker 2 (33:20):
Okay, getting everybody in, gonna go to James in Roxbury,
James next on Nightsider, right ahead.
Speaker 6 (33:25):
Well, hi, okay, I'll do your thing real quick.
Speaker 4 (33:28):
With Trump, I mean you called him Trump.
Speaker 6 (33:30):
Anyway, that's his name, James Trump. He needs now who
to help him out. Yes, I voted for Harris, but
be honest with you, I already know she can't do
a thing, but I voted for her anyway. She's much
safer than Trump. Yes, he desperately needs her army, desperately
because she did bow down, she did kiss the ring.
(33:53):
So she's now a supporter. But he's not gonna put
her in because, like you said, his ego is way
too high. Look, he had all these other women. He
could have had Cheney his daughter, he could have had
Arnold Palmer's daughter and everybody else. But when it comes
to a woman, he seems to degrade them and beat
them down. He forgot guess what. He didn't come into
(34:15):
a world without a woman.
Speaker 2 (34:17):
So there's a lot of women who he has who
were supporting. I mean, he has a lot of women
who supported him. I think that's and I think that
Mark Cuban has insulted a lot of women on that.
I mean, look, Kaylie Mcananey, I don't know if you
remember his press secretary, Harvard Law School, pretty smart lady
Sarah Sanders, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who went from his press
(34:40):
secretary to becoming the governor of Arkansas. She's pretty smart.
Speaker 6 (34:44):
I mean, you know, they're all smart. I'm not denying
as smart. I'm just saying any want any woman that
seemed to have an education. He doesn't want any woman
that seems to be strong. He doesn't.
Speaker 2 (34:55):
Harvard Law School is a pretty good education.
Speaker 6 (34:57):
Mc No, I'm saying they're not.
Speaker 5 (35:00):
I'm green.
Speaker 6 (35:00):
They're all super smart, but they're super opinionated. They're super
strong as well as educated.
Speaker 2 (35:07):
You can't, Okay, all right, all right, James, so you think,
but so you don't think that he will he will
ask Nikki.
Speaker 3 (35:16):
Hayley to help him.
Speaker 6 (35:18):
I stand up better chance of being president.
Speaker 4 (35:20):
And I was not born in this country.
Speaker 3 (35:24):
Hey, James is always a he too.
Speaker 6 (35:27):
Then, yes, everybody said President Kamal is not that good.
But guess what at one time everybody said it was
President Biden. So I think, well, I think I don't
think he's going to go down to history.
Speaker 3 (35:37):
Is a great president, James.
Speaker 2 (35:39):
Remember President Biden was the guy who said, I'm going
to bring the country together. I think we're more we're
more divided now than we've ever been, which I think
is said.
Speaker 6 (35:46):
I'm not denying. I'm not denying that. But remember also
Trump said he did great for the black people, and
remember he called us the black He hasn't done one thing.
And guess what if you're going to say he did
what happened in New York, Chicago, Atlanta and every black community,
even all the states he's named that are black, If
he did so good, why keep trashing them?
Speaker 2 (36:06):
And that's well, those are all cities run for the
most part by them. But he said by the Democratic Party.
But the Chicago and Atlanta and New York are not
run by the Republican Party. Why is he doing better? James,
let me ask you this. Why is Trump doing better? Now? Again,
we'll have to see how the results are on Tuesday,
but the polls indicate that he's doing better amongst black males.
Speaker 3 (36:27):
Any idea why?
Speaker 6 (36:30):
And I can answer that question and that goescluse me.
The reason why he's doing good because all of those
minorities are sick of Democrats because they're weak, they're small.
They talk a big game and don't do it. So
we're trying to give them a lesson. Say, hey, we'll
go to Republicans. Well what we're republicans because now they're
just maga. I'm in there.
Speaker 2 (36:50):
Let's see see what happens, James. We'll see what happens. Hey, James,
I got to run here, man, Thank you so much.
Call more often?
Speaker 4 (36:57):
Will.
Speaker 5 (36:57):
I like you calls.
Speaker 2 (36:58):
You know that we don't silly agree on everything, but
you're a good guy to talk to him.
Speaker 6 (37:03):
Well, you got to teach me things, and I like
that right back at you.
Speaker 2 (37:07):
James, you teach me things as well, though, don't sell
yourself short. Thanks buddy, have a good one. Thanks Bob
and California. Bob, you were next on night Side.
Speaker 5 (37:16):
Welcome, Yes, darn good evening, Dan, good evening.
Speaker 6 (37:21):
I thank you.
Speaker 7 (37:22):
I feel the posters are way out of touch, way
out of touch, with all due respect, I don't see
how Kamala I mean, come on, man, she's gonna get
more popular votes than Trump. No way, I'm gonna say
right now. Trump's gonna win on a landslide. Three hundred
electoral votes. He will win in an absolute landslide, because what.
Speaker 2 (37:46):
Percentage of the vote do you suspect Trump can amass?
Speaker 8 (37:51):
Uh?
Speaker 7 (37:53):
Fifty five percent?
Speaker 6 (37:54):
Maybe?
Speaker 2 (37:55):
Well, that that would buy today's standards, would be a landslide.
How smart would he be to finally say to Nicki Haley,
let's bury the hatchet.
Speaker 3 (38:04):
Come on out.
Speaker 2 (38:04):
I need you to accompany me to a few stops,
jump on the plane.
Speaker 7 (38:07):
I think Nikki Hily has nothing to do with it.
She's a warmonger. Okay, nothing, he doesn't need her. I
was gonna say the three parties, the Democrats, the Republicans,
and many many Americans who are behind Trump. The Democrats
are completely out of touch, okay, as the Republican Party.
(38:27):
Both parties are out of touch with mainstream America. Trump
is doing well because he resonates with true Americans, like
people who are working, trying to make a living, take
care of their families. Donald Trump relates to them, and
he will do a good job for mainstream Americans. And
I'm not Donald Trump, but I approved this message.
Speaker 3 (38:49):
Hey, I know you are not Donald Trump.
Speaker 2 (38:51):
Beg you, Bob, as always, we'll talk soon, okay, all right, Okay,
So for those of you the line, Rochelle and Sandra,
I'm gonna ask you to stay there because they don't
want to short change you. I am going to go
to break eleven o'clock News when we come back. I
want to hear from people, and Rachelle and Sandraw I
want to hear from you. Okay, so stay there, But
(39:12):
I here's what I want to do in the eleven
o'clock News. I want to know who are you going
to vote for and if you're worried that your candidate
can win. Bob would not qualify for eleven okay, because
he's going to vote for Trump and he's convinced he's
going to win. I want to know what anxieties are
people feeling and will kind of get them out, will
help you get through the weekend. Let's let's let's expose
(39:35):
your anxieties and talk about them. I'll explain more fully
right after the eleven
It's night Sime with Dan Ray. I'm tell you easy, Boston.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Well, the election of twenty twenty four now is a
mere days away, and it's really almost hours away at
this point when you think about it. We've been looking
at this for well, some people have been looking at
it since January of twenty twenty one, or since November
of twenty twenty. Certainly we've been immersed in this for
a year. No one has been immersed in these sorts
(00:29):
of elections for a longer period of time with a
greater record of accuracy than my good friend John Zogby
of John Zogby Strategies. John, thanks so much for making
yourself available. I so appreciate you taking the time to
be with us tonight.
Speaker 3 (00:43):
Thank you.
Speaker 4 (00:44):
Jan anytime the Friday before a presidential election in the tradition.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
For us, it has become that.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
By the way, if you want to ask John zog
Be a question, John is going to stay with us
until ten thirty. His time is veryval So you want
to get on, and you want to get on early.
The other thing wech you'd like to mention is that
Zogbie Strategies does a webinar on Monday at noontime, tell
(01:14):
us about the webinar and how people can participate in
that webinar if they're not fortunate enough to reach you tonight.
Speaker 4 (01:20):
John, so the webinar at noon on Monday. Best thing
to do, I think is to write to Jeremy at
John Zogby Strategies dot com. He'll get your registered and
show you how to register Jeremy at John Zogbi Strategies
(01:42):
dot com. And what we're doing is we're doing our
final poll tomorrow and Sunday, trying to take it as
close to the end as we can a nationwide poll
and see if we're going to get a break one
way or another. So far there is no break.
Speaker 3 (02:01):
When will you be out in the field.
Speaker 2 (02:03):
You're going to be out tomorrow and Sunday or Sunday
and Monday, or when.
Speaker 4 (02:07):
Tomorrow and Sunday and then we'll release their belts at
noon on Monday.
Speaker 2 (02:13):
Okay, now you have been And one of the reasons
I love to talk to you is that you have
basically had a very good winning percentage.
Speaker 3 (02:24):
On these polls.
Speaker 2 (02:26):
Of going back to many elections, you've called these polls correctly,
I believe since nineteen ninety six correct me.
Speaker 5 (02:34):
If I'm wrong, that's right, that is correct, okay.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
And some of them were very I mean, there might
have been a couple of relatively easy ones in there.
Speaker 3 (02:46):
But you have the.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
Bush Gore poll from two thousand, which was correct. The
Kerry Bush race in twenty twenty four was close. John
McCain Barack Obama was close. You know, obviously you were
able to figure the upset, the Trump upset over Hillary Clinton.
(03:10):
What did you see in that in twenty sixteen, And
are you seeing anything that is similar because some people
are saying that that Trump is undervalued in polls, that
there's always sort of like this three or four percent
of of a hidden Trump vote. What is your gut
(03:32):
at this person? What is you what do you write?
Speaker 4 (03:35):
So a couple of things about twenty sixteen, I did
not poll. Then I had sold my company and we
had just started a new one, and so I didn't
pull it. But I'll take I'll mention the other polls
which really were spot on. They may not have gotten
the correct percentages at the at the time, but they
(03:58):
followed the trajectory. And what clearly if you look at
the twenty sixteen polls correctly, you see Hillary Clinton going
from a nine, ten to eleven point lead ten days
before the election to a one two three point lead
in each of those battleground states, or even a tie
or deficit like Michigan or North Carolina. And so the
(04:22):
trajectory was going against Hillary Clinton. So it really didn't
surprise me that the next day she won the popular vote,
but she lost many of those battleground states. I'm not
so concerned on my end about a hidden Trump vote
because I've been doing this for forty years and I
(04:44):
have always found, from the early days the landline telephones,
Republicans seem to be less inclined to answer polls, and
same thing with online polls as well. So I build
into my polling sample awaiting mechanism that automatically bumps the
(05:07):
percentage of Republicans up a couple of points to reflect
what I believe will be the electorate on either having
voted already or on election day. So I'm not worried
about that hidden Trump vote. I think I've got it covered.
Speaker 2 (05:24):
Okay, let's talk about I've been saying on air, I
would hope that, however the election turned out, there was
a decisive victory. I don't expect a LinkedIn Johnson type
landslide or Richard Nixon Ronald Reagan forty nine to one landslide.
But I was hoping it'd be decisive to diminish the
(05:47):
hard feelings that I fear a close election will result in.
It sounds to me at this point that my hope
for a decisive victory in either direction is not likely.
Speaker 4 (05:59):
Well, we don't have any evidence of that yet, Dan.
Right now it is Razor Sin. The biggest lead in
any of the battleground states is Donald Trump leading in
Georgia by about two and a half percentage points. But
a more recent poll has the two of them tied.
Speaker 6 (06:18):
And so.
Speaker 4 (06:20):
We're not finding a trend line breaking one way or another.
But this is Friday night, and I can point to
two elections, the nineteen eighty election Carter versus Reagan, where
the dam burst over the weekend of that election and
by Monday, the photos of Jimmy Carter was showing him despondent.
(06:42):
There were no public polls published, but privately Carter's polls
showed that he was going to lose in a landslide
the damn broke. And then in twenty twelve, something that
is relevant to your listeners, particularly in Massachusetts, is that
Obama and Romney was a razorsin race right on up
(07:04):
to that weekend. I polled that race, and I started
to see younger voters who had been disappointed in Barack
Obama's first term saying they're coming out to vote and
breaking big, particularly young women, towards Obama.
Speaker 6 (07:20):
And then, as you.
Speaker 4 (07:21):
Know, in the electoral college and popular vote, it was
really a landslide, but it had.
Speaker 3 (07:26):
Been fulled.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
Twenty twelve in retrospect. Which stunned me was that President
Obama actually won more popular vote. He won sixty nine
million popular votes in two thousand and eight, and he's
one of the few presidents who had his popular vote
number drop by about four million.
Speaker 3 (07:51):
I think I'm right in these numbers.
Speaker 2 (07:52):
John, he only against Romney won sixty five million votes, right.
Romney did not build on the McCain number at all.
And that, to me was was really mystifying because you
know Romney, we knew him in Massachusetts.
Speaker 3 (08:14):
He had been pretty effective here.
Speaker 2 (08:16):
And if someone had told me the weekend before that
President Obama was going to be down five four million votes,
I would have bet a lot of money that Mitt
Romney was going to win, but those votes went away,
but they didn't go to the polls for Mitt Romney.
So I don't know if there's a lesson here. I
think it's going to be very tough for Vice President
(08:38):
Harris to get to the eighty one million figure because
Joe Biden, you know, he he's he won the most
popular votes of any president in history, eighty one million.
Speaker 4 (08:53):
Votes, and it was a far different Joe Biden in
twenty twenty. He was Uncle Joe, and he had that
he had the tragedies in his life. You know, twenty
four percent of likely voters has had one or two
major personal catastrophes in their lives. I found this out
(09:19):
for my own polling, and in that regard, Joe Biden
was able to bond with people. He had a leveling
experience that people could identify with, which you know, he
lost frankly and by twenty twenty four. You know, we
don't have to go into that. And I'm not sure
Kamala Harris has that kind of leveling experience, especially to
(09:45):
given the fact that she was really trashed by her
own party throughout her vice presidency. In fact, one of
the last minute efforts that the White House officials, campaign
I should say campaign officials were making to keep Biden
in the race was, God, you don't want Cammel to
(10:06):
be the nominee. And then all of a sudden, late
July happens she's the nominee. And you know, that's a
very short period to cover all those battleground states and
to define yourself.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
Yeah, it's it's it's going to be fascinating. My guess
is John Zogby. If you'd like to talk to John,
I'm going to give you the number and you get
it down quickly because he's going to be gone by
ten thirty. He's going to be a busy guy this weekend.
And I still appreciate him spending any time with us.
Six one, seven, two, five four, ten thirty six one seven,
nine three one, ten thirty. If you get in right now,
I can get you on with John Zogby.
Speaker 3 (10:42):
We'll be back.
Speaker 2 (10:43):
Any question you'd like to ask. I think he stated
it pretty clearly that as of now, there is no
clear conclusion that he's been able to draw. I look
at all the other posters, and I think that they
are in consensus on this. But he did say that Hey,
sometimes in the final weekend before an election, and he
cites a couple of years, nineteen eighty and twenty twelve,
(11:06):
the undecided's break. I guess my counter argument would be,
I don't know how many undeciders are still out there.
That'll be my question coming back for John Zogby. Have
we exhausted the bucket of undecided? We'll be back on
Nightside with some phone calls and some more conversation with
John Zogby as we we go into the weekend before
the election of twenty twenty four. We only do this
(11:28):
every four years, everyone, so this is a really important
period of.
Speaker 3 (11:31):
Time in our history.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
Back on Nightside right after this, It's night Side.
Speaker 4 (11:35):
With Dan Ray.
Speaker 1 (11:36):
Hey Dan, WBZ Boston's News Radio. Now back to Dan
Ray live from the Window World Nightside Studios on WBZ
News Radio.
Speaker 2 (11:48):
Before we get to a couple of calls and we will,
I promise John Zogby, are there any undecided's, truly undecideds
left in this race?
Speaker 5 (11:56):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (11:56):
There are? And to be really, it's so much they're
going to vote for Trump or Harris.
Speaker 7 (12:01):
It's whether or not.
Speaker 4 (12:02):
They vote at all. And a lower voter turnout really
is an advantage for Donald Trump. Harris, on the other hand,
needs to get young women out to vote, working hard
to do that, but she needs as big account as
she can get.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
And none of the controversies of the last few days
seem to have had an impact. I watched these polls,
maybe not as closely as you, but I try to
watch them closely, and I don't see much movement in
the last few days, certainly not.
Speaker 4 (12:36):
On a global level, not in the national polls were
for that that are really in the states, you know,
on a micro level, if we're getting down to one
point or you know, a few hundred or a few
thousand votes differential between the two candidates. Yes, some angry
Puerto Ricans, to be sure, can make a difference. Yes,
(12:58):
some angry era Americans in Michigan and in Pennsylvania can
certainly make a difference.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
All right, We're going to go to phone calls, and again,
John Jogby, thank you so much for your time here.
I'm going to ask both of these callers who I'm
going to be trying to get to it. Let me
start off with Tom and Lynn Massachusetts. Tom quick question,
direct question for John Zogby, If you will, sir, go
right ahead.
Speaker 8 (13:21):
Okay. Three things, will hang up and listen. One, what's
his vote Jewish voters doing?
Speaker 7 (13:25):
Two?
Speaker 8 (13:27):
Do you ever consider ranked choice voting in your polling process?
And the third one is can you talk a little
about super voters? That's say thank you?
Speaker 2 (13:38):
Okay, let's start with Jewish voters. First, what's going on
with Jewish voters?
Speaker 4 (13:44):
John, The only poll I've seen about three weeks ago
shows Jewish voters. It's seventy one percent for Harris, twenty
six percent for Trump. Dan, that's about average. We haven't
seen any real opment there. The second question was the
second question was.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
Ranked choice voting, which I don't think really applies. You
can pass on that one if you want. I understand
what rank choice voting is, butl go ahead.
Speaker 4 (14:10):
I put it in locales and it's a very popular
idea wherever I polled it. But yeah, it's not relevant here, okay.
Speaker 2 (14:18):
And then so called super voters, So people who I
guess are always voting. Those are the voters, the best
voters that the campaigns like to identify the people who
you know are going to vote every time.
Speaker 6 (14:31):
Yeah, and.
Speaker 4 (14:33):
Those folks are at a time, which is where the
non super voters are too. We're not getting really any
clues here.
Speaker 2 (14:39):
Dan. All right, well, you know, hey, as you said,
we still have some time. Let me go next to
Paul in Wilkesbury, Pennsylvania. The a town of the New
York Yankees and the New York Yankees is going to
need some help next year to get over the hump.
Go ahead, Paul. We're not talking baseball. You're talking polls
with John Zogby. Garrett Ahead.
Speaker 6 (15:00):
Dan, thank you for taking my call.
Speaker 5 (15:01):
My question is on John, as you were talking about
the twenty twelve election with Mitt Romney and Barack Obama.
This is just my theory. I'll run up by John.
I think the fact that Mike Huckabee stayed in the
ray so long in the primary and he turned the
evangelical voters the instiment Rodney, but he was a warmon
he was in Romney. You know, we can say what
you want about it, but there's no reason to day
(15:23):
to the matter of religion. And Mike Kkaby did that
roundabout way. He's scared off a lot of it in
the evangelical vote by the time he ran against Barack Obama,
who I did vote for that election in twenty twenty
voting for President Obama is he got a lotted in
a few years and I was discussed with the Republicans
at the time. But my question for John is does
he think that need to do it? Rodney losing the
(15:43):
fact that Mike Knkaby stayed in the primary, that a
lot of estavaged him, and all this stuff, the art
thank you sers.
Speaker 4 (15:49):
Okay, my base was what we're Christian evangelical voters and
this is uh, Romney underperformed among evangelical voters. But I
think you're correct. I think that huckelby staying in the
race allowed that let's call it Romney hostility or anti
(16:12):
Romney sentiment to kind of congeal a little bit and
damp and turn out for him.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
Yeah, but again coming back, so let's come back to
twenty twenty four, and that is I know why Donald Trump, Well,
it seems to me that the best thing that Donald
Trump could do tomorrow would be to bring Nikki Haley
out with him to event after event after event in Pennsylvania, Michigan,
(16:41):
and Wisconsin. Pretty clear it's not going to happen. Do
you think that if you sat across the table as
a pollster and you said to Trump, if you bring
Haley out for the next two days, you're going to
win this election. If you don't bring her out, you're
going to lose it. Do you think that would change
Trump's mind? I just think that Trump is ignoring a
possibility here. And I don't understand why Nikki Haley has
(17:08):
not She's willing to appear with Trump, and he has
not accepted that that overture.
Speaker 4 (17:16):
He's obviously a very proud man, and she had the
audacity to challenge him, and even worse, she had the
audacity to get a considerable amount of votes in states
where she was already off the ballot and out of
the race. And so I could say that to Donald Trump,
but I don't have any sense at all that he
(17:37):
would hear a word that I was saying.
Speaker 2 (17:39):
Yeah, and that's a blind spot. It's almost like you
know a professional athlete who has a blind spot and
they just can't get over it. And I think that
if if he loses, and as a pretty good possibility
he is going to lose, that that's going to be
the obituary, the political obittion. Worry that he chose that
(18:02):
he would prefer to lose without Haley then to win
with him. Do you agree with me that if Haley
actually appeared with him at several campaign stops in the
next two or three days, that could be an instrumental
in a close race for him to actually achieve victory.
Speaker 3 (18:20):
I would agree with that.
Speaker 4 (18:22):
You know, Harris is vigorously going after Haley voters, and
yet these are still conservative voters who have some questions
about Kamala Harrison voting for Kamala Harris. What I don't
see Trump doing is adding on. You know, he gets
(18:42):
forty six percent of the vote the last two times
he runs. This time he's pulling about forty seven eight percent.
But he's got to get additional votes somewhere, and I
don't see where he's building.
Speaker 2 (18:57):
Yeah, I mean, if he's if he gets to forty
eight and this is by four percent, and I don't
know if there's how big a vote Jill Stein or
Cornell West or the libertarian candidate, but he kind of
he won't win with forty eight. If he gets the
forty nine percent of the popular vote, he could he
(19:18):
could win the electoral vote. In my opinion, I think
that's that differential between forty eight and forty nine is critical,
and I'm gonna ask you the question again and try
to put you in the record if if, somehow, some
way tomorrow morning he woke up and said, bring Haley,
I want Haley with me, and she decided to go.
Could that be a difference maker for him?
Speaker 4 (19:38):
From in your real it would be it's the racist close.
Trump is very close. He needs to add voters somewhere
and there. You ask about the undecided, that there are
a considerable number of Nicky Haley voters that detest Donald
Trump or have questions about him and not ready to
(20:02):
vote for Kamala Harris. You know this would be a
bridge building thing. But remember one point I need to
make is given the electoral college, in the popular vote nationally,
Kamala Harrison needs to be leading by about three points
(20:23):
in order to you know, feel comfortable about winning in
the battleground states. Remember she gets a lot of excess
Democratic votes in California, New York, Illinois, you know, very
blue states. The extra votes she doesn't need to win
the electoral college.
Speaker 2 (20:42):
And we could throw Massachusetts into that category as well. Absolutely, yeah,
John Zogby, I thank you so much. You know it's
going to be a very interesting time for all of us,
and I know that that you are going to be
in the middle of it. Again, I thank you for
your your kindness, and again the Zogby webinar is available
(21:05):
at noontime on a subscription basis. All they have to
do is go to I believe you said, Jeremy at
Zogby's Strategies. Jeremy is your son, Jeremy at Zogby Strategies.
Speaker 4 (21:17):
Dot com, Jeremy Zogby Strategies, Jeremy at John Strategies.
Speaker 2 (21:23):
Okay, great, Jeremy at John Zogby Strategies. That's an important difference.
And just or just google on John Zogby and it'll
get you there as well. John Zogby, thank you so much.
As always. Happy election Day.
Speaker 3 (21:35):
To you, my friend, You too, my friend.
Speaker 4 (21:37):
Take care all right?
Speaker 3 (21:38):
Thanks?
Speaker 2 (21:39):
All right, Now we're going to open up the lines,
and I want to the next I want to spend
the next half hour between now to eleven o'clock on
a question. And the question is why is Donald Trump
not taking the opportunity of having NICKI Haley with him
(22:02):
in the.
Speaker 3 (22:02):
Final days of this race. I know that most of
you are.
Speaker 2 (22:07):
Who want to respond to this or Trump voters, But
I'd like to hear from both Trump and Harris voters.
For the Harris voters, I ask, do you fear that
or are you so convinced that he won't do it?
You don't fear it? And if you're a Trump voter,
why would your candidate not be smart enough to basically
(22:29):
put his ego in his back pocket for a couple
of days and bring out the one opponent I was Trump,
I would bring DeSantis, Rubio, all of them, and particularly
Nicki Haley. This is a question of it's all on
the line here and is his ego so overwhelming that
(22:53):
he couldnt even acknowledge that that maybe he can't win
this election on his own? That's my question. I will
have a different question at eleven o'clock tonight in the
twentieth hour. It will also deal with the election. So
for now, for the next hour and a half, we're
going to talk about the election. But I want to
(23:14):
frame the question for you. If you're a Trump supporter
and you could advise your candidate Nikki Haley on the
campaign trail for the next.
Speaker 3 (23:24):
Three days, yes or no? What say you?
Speaker 2 (23:27):
If you're a Harris supporter, do you worry or are
you so convinced that Donald Trump's ego will not permit
this that it does it.
Speaker 3 (23:38):
It's not even on your radar screen.
Speaker 2 (23:40):
We'll be back on Night's side six one, seven, two, five,
four ten thirty six one seven, nine three one ten thirty.
Then we will have a different, another challenging question, politically
challenging question at eleven tonight in the twentieth hour. I've
thought about it. We're going to in effect you a
focus group at eleven o'clock. I will explain. And again remember,
(24:01):
even if you call earlier this week, you have a
hall pass in the twentieth.
Speaker 3 (24:05):
Hour, in the eleven o'clock hour, back on Nightside after
this Night Side.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
With Dan ray On.
Speaker 1 (24:11):
Don youbzy Boston's News Radio. You're on night Side with
Dan ray On, doll you bzy Boston's News Radio.
Speaker 3 (24:20):
Okay, here's my theory in the race.
Speaker 2 (24:23):
And I've said this from the get go, and I
know that some of you who are Trump supporters will
be pleased, will be displeased to hear this. I'm not
sure that Donald Trump can get fifty percent of the vote.
I'm not even sure you can get forty eight percent
of the vote. John Zogby alluded to that last hour.
(24:44):
Unless Trump can get at least forty eight or forty
nine percent of the popular vote, he will not win
the electoral college vote. He was able to do that
with Hillary Clinton in twenty sixteen. And I have said
all along, and I'll stick with what I've said all
along in the past. Donald Trump has surprised me. After
the Billy Bush broadcast tape was exposed back in twenty sixteen,
(25:08):
I felt it was imperative for Trump to walk away
from the race. He chose not to, and he surprised
us all What surprised me in defeating Hillary Clinton. Now,
that race was messed up on a number of different
times by James Comy, the FBI director, a couple of
times that seemed to help Hillary Clinton and a couple
(25:29):
of times that seemed to help Donald Trump. And I
think that was the weakness of Comby that I think
he was very much involved politically, much much too close politically.
But I've said all along, could Trump win the nomination? Yeah,
he could because he's the strongest Republican. He has a
base that within the Republican Party. But I have not
(25:51):
felt that with all the baggage that he's carrying that
he would win an election that I've gone back and
forth on the In my mind, certainly after looking at
the debate with Joe Biden in late June, it was
apparent to me that Joe Biden couldn't win, and if
Joe Biden couldn't win, that would mean Donald Trump would win.
(26:12):
The Democrats came to that conclusion pretty quickly, and they
obviously have now nominated the Vice president Harris. She is
a weak Democratic candidate. I cannot think of a weaker
Democratic candidate for a whole bunch of reasons. Her background
(26:33):
and the positions that she took in twenty nineteen.
Speaker 3 (26:37):
We know all of those.
Speaker 2 (26:39):
She was against fracking, she was in favor of transgender
surgery for inmates, for prison inmates. It's almost like a
benefit of going to prison. She wanted to get to
EV cars mandate EV's on and on and on and on.
(27:01):
But she's hanging in there. I don't know how many
people unless something gets something happens over the weekend. And
my argument is that the thing that the Trump could do,
the old the thing that only that Trump could control,
former President Trump could control, would be to reconcile with
Nicki Haley and bring Nicki Haley out on the campaign
(27:24):
trail with him. I think that could potentially put him
over the top. But failing that, I think he's going
to be close. And it's stunning, stunning that he is
still this close. But I don't think he can win
the general election without Nikki a presence of Nicki Haley
(27:47):
on at some campaign stops, you can agree or disagree.
Let's go to Bill and Norfolk. Bill, you were next
this hour on Nightside.
Speaker 9 (27:54):
Go right ahead, Yeah, Dan if I was counseling the
President Trump and I am supporting him this time. I
was absolutely bring out Mario, bring out Nikki, bring out
the Santas. In twenty sixteen, he was my seventeenth pick
out of the seventeen people we had running, you know.
(28:16):
And in twenty twenty and I voted for arm eventually
voted for him. In twenty twenty. I was with Tim
Scott this time, gave him money. I went to Desantas
and then I went to Nikki and now I'm with
with Trump. But he needs to bring the middle of
the road sort of moderate Republicans out. This weekend Saturday Sunday, Monday,
(28:37):
and they need to make the case. It's a pretty
pretty reasonable case. I think I disagree with you on
the popular voie irrelevant. Man, it's going to come down
to about ten thousand votes in Pennsylvania, and if he
wins that, he wins this whole event. He could absolutely
before the Febber.
Speaker 2 (28:57):
No, I do understand that. But what I'm saying to
you is when you even when you way in that
California is going to be overwhelming for Harris, as John
Zogby just reference. Everyone knows that Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, these
are states where like in a football season, the team
(29:18):
runs up, you know, a forty eight to ten victory.
In the old days, the Patriots beat the Jets forty
eight to ten, but they will then had to face
a good NFC team, And that's the same situation he
faces now. The question is not.
Speaker 3 (29:34):
The question is.
Speaker 2 (29:37):
He's got to somehow keep he Look it realistically, you
can take all of the California votes and the excess
Illinois votes, and the Maryland votes and the Massachusetts votes.
Then he wins some states big. He wins a big
vote in Florida, maybe he wins a big vote in Texas,
he wins some big votes in places like Alabama, Mississippi,
(29:59):
West Virginia, so all of those kind of balance off.
So he can lose the popular vote.
Speaker 6 (30:05):
If he's forty eight, of course, but if.
Speaker 2 (30:08):
He's forty seven and she's fifty three, the math won't work.
Speaker 9 (30:13):
And I don't think the polls are telling us that.
I think it's closer. I think it's jumpall. It's really
one of the blue all states, and I think it's Pennsylvania.
Speaker 2 (30:23):
Well, but he's also got to carry he's got to
win Georgia, he's got to win North Carolina. I mean,
no one has to win all seven, but the more
important states. You know, Nevada is not as populous as Georgia,
and so it's right, there's all sorts of variations and
permutations here that are that are important. But I just
(30:44):
don't understand for him to be this close, after all
he has gone through and as much on the line.
If he loses, he very well well he will be
prosecuted and he very well may end up in jail. Okay,
So for him, it's stutterly with you, Yeah, it's not
only getting re elected and doing something that that only
(31:04):
one other president Brover Cleveland has ever done have non
consecutive terms, but his his freedoms as an American citizen
would be in jeopardy. He gets elected, he can basically
write off most of this stuff and he's not going
to be prosecuted, even in the state cases, and they're
all going to go away.
Speaker 9 (31:24):
Well, I think, Kamala, you were right, And Kamala, she's
by far the worst candidate. And I'm probably three or
four years younger than you, by far the worst candidate
of my lifetime.
Speaker 6 (31:35):
As a president.
Speaker 9 (31:36):
I mean, she she can't speak.
Speaker 6 (31:38):
It's unbelievable.
Speaker 9 (31:39):
It's really unbelievable.
Speaker 2 (31:40):
And the fact that that she's that she's holding at
that close says to me, can he get to forty
eight or forty nine?
Speaker 9 (31:50):
Again? You know it's not her, Dan, it's if it
was a door knob, it'll be fifty to fifty against Trump.
Caps out of this country, aged Trump.
Speaker 3 (32:00):
But right, But what I'm saying is.
Speaker 2 (32:04):
No, I understand that, But you're going to vote him
because because you agree with his policies. But he now
has to he has to, in my opinion, reach out
to Nikki Haley and sign a peace treaty. She's indicated
to him. She's endorsed him, she's campaigned for him, she's
campaigned for the Republicans. She didn't go away, she hasn't
gone away and hid hid. She's out there.
Speaker 9 (32:26):
She's he's just so egotistical. He can't put it away, Dan,
you can't.
Speaker 2 (32:31):
Well, well then that if he can't put it away,
if he can't put the ego away, he may end
up being put away.
Speaker 3 (32:37):
And he should understand it.
Speaker 9 (32:38):
There's only one person who can speak to that man,
and it's his son, Donald Jor. And he's going to
get to the guys and say, hey, you need to
see his dad and do it now.
Speaker 3 (32:50):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (32:50):
And I get if he waits till Monday, it'll be
too late because this it's got to soak in for
a couple of days. Hey, Bill Love you call me man.
Please continue to listen. We'll talk soon. Okay, thanks all.
Coming right back on the other side, I got James
and Roxbury, Rochelle and Weymouth and then we go to
the twentieth hour back on Nightside.
Speaker 3 (33:05):
Right after this Night Side with Dan Ray on.
Speaker 1 (33:10):
Boston's News. Now back to Dan Ray Live from the
Window World nights Side Studios on w BZ News Radio.
Speaker 2 (33:20):
Okay, getting everybody in, gonna go to James in Roxbury,
James next on Nightsider, right ahead.
Speaker 6 (33:25):
Well, hi, okay, I'll do your thing real quick.
Speaker 4 (33:28):
With Trump, I mean you called him Trump.
Speaker 6 (33:30):
Anyway, that's his name, James Trump. He needs now who
to help him out. Yes, I voted for Harris, but
be honest with you, I already know she can't do
a thing, but I voted for her anyway. She's much
safer than Trump. Yes, he desperately needs her army, desperately
because she did bow down, she did kiss the ring.
(33:53):
So she's now a supporter. But he's not gonna put
her in because, like you said, his ego is way
too high. Look, he had all these other women. He
could have had Cheney his daughter, he could have had
Arnold Palmer's daughter and everybody else. But when it comes
to a woman, he seems to degrade them and beat
them down. He forgot guess what. He didn't come into
(34:15):
a world without a woman.
Speaker 2 (34:17):
So there's a lot of women who he has who
were supporting. I mean, he has a lot of women
who supported him. I think that's and I think that
Mark Cuban has insulted a lot of women on that.
I mean, look, Kaylie Mcananey, I don't know if you
remember his press secretary, Harvard Law School, pretty smart lady
Sarah Sanders, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who went from his press
(34:40):
secretary to becoming the governor of Arkansas. She's pretty smart.
Speaker 6 (34:44):
I mean, you know, they're all smart. I'm not denying
as smart. I'm just saying any want any woman that
seemed to have an education. He doesn't want any woman
that seems to be strong. He doesn't.
Speaker 2 (34:55):
Harvard Law School is a pretty good education.
Speaker 6 (34:57):
Mc No, I'm saying they're not.
Speaker 5 (35:00):
I'm green.
Speaker 6 (35:00):
They're all super smart, but they're super opinionated. They're super
strong as well as educated.
Speaker 2 (35:07):
You can't, Okay, all right, all right, James, so you think,
but so you don't think that he will he will
ask Nikki.
Speaker 3 (35:16):
Hayley to help him.
Speaker 6 (35:18):
I stand up better chance of being president.
Speaker 4 (35:20):
And I was not born in this country.
Speaker 3 (35:24):
Hey, James is always a he too.
Speaker 6 (35:27):
Then, yes, everybody said President Kamal is not that good.
But guess what at one time everybody said it was
President Biden. So I think, well, I think I don't
think he's going to go down to history.
Speaker 3 (35:37):
Is a great president, James.
Speaker 2 (35:39):
Remember President Biden was the guy who said, I'm going
to bring the country together. I think we're more we're
more divided now than we've ever been, which I think
is said.
Speaker 6 (35:46):
I'm not denying. I'm not denying that. But remember also
Trump said he did great for the black people, and
remember he called us the black He hasn't done one thing.
And guess what if you're going to say he did
what happened in New York, Chicago, Atlanta and every black community,
even all the states he's named that are black, If
he did so good, why keep trashing them?
Speaker 2 (36:06):
And that's well, those are all cities run for the
most part by them. But he said by the Democratic Party.
But the Chicago and Atlanta and New York are not
run by the Republican Party. Why is he doing better? James,
let me ask you this. Why is Trump doing better? Now? Again,
we'll have to see how the results are on Tuesday,
but the polls indicate that he's doing better amongst black males.
Speaker 3 (36:27):
Any idea why?
Speaker 6 (36:30):
And I can answer that question and that goescluse me.
The reason why he's doing good because all of those
minorities are sick of Democrats because they're weak, they're small.
They talk a big game and don't do it. So
we're trying to give them a lesson. Say, hey, we'll
go to Republicans. Well what we're republicans because now they're
just maga. I'm in there.
Speaker 2 (36:50):
Let's see see what happens, James. We'll see what happens. Hey, James,
I got to run here, man, Thank you so much.
Call more often?
Speaker 4 (36:57):
Will.
Speaker 5 (36:57):
I like you calls.
Speaker 2 (36:58):
You know that we don't silly agree on everything, but
you're a good guy to talk to him.
Speaker 6 (37:03):
Well, you got to teach me things, and I like
that right back at you.
Speaker 2 (37:07):
James, you teach me things as well, though, don't sell
yourself short. Thanks buddy, have a good one. Thanks Bob
and California. Bob, you were next on night Side.
Speaker 5 (37:16):
Welcome, Yes, darn good evening, Dan, good evening.
Speaker 6 (37:21):
I thank you.
Speaker 7 (37:22):
I feel the posters are way out of touch, way
out of touch, with all due respect, I don't see
how Kamala I mean, come on, man, she's gonna get
more popular votes than Trump. No way, I'm gonna say
right now. Trump's gonna win on a landslide. Three hundred
electoral votes. He will win in an absolute landslide, because what.
Speaker 2 (37:46):
Percentage of the vote do you suspect Trump can amass?
Speaker 8 (37:51):
Uh?
Speaker 7 (37:53):
Fifty five percent?
Speaker 6 (37:54):
Maybe?
Speaker 2 (37:55):
Well, that that would buy today's standards, would be a landslide.
How smart would he be to finally say to Nicki Haley,
let's bury the hatchet.
Speaker 3 (38:04):
Come on out.
Speaker 2 (38:04):
I need you to accompany me to a few stops,
jump on the plane.
Speaker 7 (38:07):
I think Nikki Hily has nothing to do with it.
She's a warmonger. Okay, nothing, he doesn't need her. I
was gonna say the three parties, the Democrats, the Republicans,
and many many Americans who are behind Trump. The Democrats
are completely out of touch, okay, as the Republican Party.
(38:27):
Both parties are out of touch with mainstream America. Trump
is doing well because he resonates with true Americans, like
people who are working, trying to make a living, take
care of their families. Donald Trump relates to them, and
he will do a good job for mainstream Americans. And
I'm not Donald Trump, but I approved this message.
Speaker 3 (38:49):
Hey, I know you are not Donald Trump.
Speaker 2 (38:51):
Beg you, Bob, as always, we'll talk soon, okay, all right, Okay,
So for those of you the line, Rochelle and Sandra,
I'm gonna ask you to stay there because they don't
want to short change you. I am going to go
to break eleven o'clock News when we come back. I
want to hear from people, and Rachelle and Sandraw I
want to hear from you. Okay, so stay there, But
(39:12):
I here's what I want to do in the eleven
o'clock News. I want to know who are you going
to vote for and if you're worried that your candidate
can win. Bob would not qualify for eleven okay, because
he's going to vote for Trump and he's convinced he's
going to win. I want to know what anxieties are
people feeling and will kind of get them out, will
help you get through the weekend. Let's let's let's expose
(39:35):
your anxieties and talk about them. I'll explain more fully
right after the eleven
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