May 19, 2026 • 38 mins
A new poll that was released Tuesday by Polity Research Consulting, commissioned by the Retailers Association of Massachusetts, asks Massachusetts voters about the most important issues facing the state today. The poll reveals that the top two issues for residents are the cost of living and affordable housing. In addition, when asked if they think Massachusetts is generally headed in the right direction, or heading off on the wrong track, 45% believe the state is heading off the wrong track. That percentage has gone up over the last couple of years from 29% in 2023. What do you think are the most important issues facing MA? Polity Research Consulting CEO Ernie Paicopolos joined us to discuss the poll results.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
It's nice eyes with Ray. I'm going you Eazy Boston's
News Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
All right, welcome back everyone, Thank you very much, Dan Watkins.
As we move into the nine o'clock hour here on
Nightside on a Tuesday night, it is a pretty warm
Tuesday night out there. Keep the windows open, I guess,
or you're lucky enough to have a fan of amir conditioning.
You can use a little bit of that, that's for sure.
We am about to talk with a friend of many years.
(00:32):
He's a pollster, Ernie Pacopolis. Ernie is the CEO of
Polity Polity. I hope I'm pronouncing it correctly, Ernie Research Consulting.
And you have just done a poll, a web based
survey among six hundred and eight Massachusetts registered voters. This
(00:53):
ran from April twenty ninth to May seventh, and it's
a really interesting poll. We talk with John hirsch Hurst
about it earlier this evening. I guess it was the
Retailers Association of Massachusetts which had you do this poll.
(01:14):
Give us the top line summary from your perspective. What
did you learn your company's been around? First, I always
like to qualify lay the foundation if you will have
a witness you guys have been doing this for how long?
You've been a Welser for many years?
Speaker 3 (01:30):
Yeah, I started in the business stand back in nineteen
seventy eight, so whatever that is, it's more than I
want to remember, I guess, but forty eight years company
forty thank you, But with polity, it's since twenty nineteen
started that company.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
And so this has been life's work for you. And
I know that we have lots of people who will
say to me, all, I don't believe in polls, even
though I think you know. One of the great posters
is I guess I found out today a cousin of
(02:08):
you is Dave Paleologus, especially temple at Emerson and David
Suffolk and now you troyka here that you guys take
this stuff seriously. Explain to people why it's important to
the poster to get an accurate result in the poll,
and the poster doesn't really have a dog in the fight.
Speaker 3 (02:29):
That's correct, it's important for you know, probably the most
important part of public opinion research is a sampling process
to make sure that the sample of people in this case,
as you mentioned, six hundred and eight registered voters accurately
or as closely as possible accurately reflects the reality of
the registered voter population the Massachusetts and we do that
(02:51):
in a number of ways. We do what's called quota sampling,
so that we make sure that the split of males
and females is about what it should be, that the
age breakdown is what it should be, that the regional
breakdown in Massachusetts roughly mirrors what the actual population breakdown is.
(03:11):
So we build these into the sample to make sure
that the results are going to reflect to the degree
that research can an accurate assessment of how voters feel.
And you asked me to talk about a bottom line here.
You know, there's an old adage in public opinion research.
Sometimes results whisper to you, and sometimes they scream at you.
(03:35):
I think in this survey there's a lot of screaming
going on from rigstered voters in Massachusetts, and it centers
around their concern with what has come to be called
the affordability crisis, which we used to call the cost
of living crisis. But one of the questions we ask
at the top of the survey dan is an open
ended question where we ask people to tell us, in
(03:58):
their own words, what are the one two most important
problems facing Massachusetts today, and we stress the ones that
affect you and your family the most. And when we
code those responses together, we found that eight out of
the top ten responses have something to do with what
we call pocketbook issues, whether it's the cost of gas taxes,
(04:19):
the cost of healthcare, groceries, inflation. That's a pretty remarkable
result in having, you know, eight out of ten of
the top responses dealing with that when you know other
issues that you know some people think, are you know,
more important or equally important, like for example, climate change
or education.
Speaker 2 (04:39):
Full climate climate change is way down, way down because
that's because they we just got through a tough winter.
I don't know people's.
Speaker 3 (04:50):
It could be. But the other interesting thing I think
that you know, that's sort of the thing that's going
on and often lights is just the affordability issues. The other
issue is when we ask people, well, okay, you told
us that there's affordability crisis, how do you think the
leaders on Beacon Hill are contributing to that? Are they
helping or are they hurting? And the result there is
(05:11):
pretty remarkable. We get a majority fifty three percent who
say they think the leaders on Beacon Hill are hurting
the effort to make life more affordable in Massachusetts. That's
pretty astounding. That's an astounding result to me.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
Yeah. Yet, yet when you run polls on and again,
I'm not here to advocate for one party or the other,
or to advocate for a candidate or the other. But
as I said to a couple of folks today, if
I had taken the raw numbers of this poll and
made it so, and he handed it to a political
(05:48):
strategist and said, Okay, this is a poll from a
major state. You know, we're not talking about you know,
Utah or a Rhode Island. It's a major state. And
you looked at all that you did, and you took
out the names of the politicians so they wouldn't know
exactly who you were talking about. When you see that
in general, do you think state leaders on Beacon Hill?
(06:09):
Now that can mean think different things to different people, obviously,
But when you think about state leaders, you can think
about the governor, you can think about when it says
on Beacon Hill we're talking about state leaders certainly think
about the legislature. And by a two to one margin,
they're telling you that in their opinion. State leaders, by
(06:30):
a two to one margin have hurt affordability as opposed
to helping affordability, which would be the most important job
that a state leader theoretically would have. And yet I
don't get a sense that Massachusetts voters are going to
do much to change things. Forget the governor's race, forget
(06:51):
you know, the statewide races. I think that I don't
think this is. But you know what happens is if
you get elected state Rep. A couple of times or
state Senate a couple of times, you're there to you
die if you want.
Speaker 3 (07:06):
To be It's it's a lifetime appointment. Yeah, yeah, it is.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
It is. And you know, I talked to so many
friends of mine who will say, uh, oh, you know
those people on Beacon Hill. They're terrible, They're terrible. And
I'll say, well, what do you think about your state rep? Oh?
My guys, good guy, good guy. I see him at
the diner every once in a while and he says hello.
I don't know if he knows my name or not,
but you know, he'll weigh at me. Does it take
(07:33):
much to get your vote?
Speaker 3 (07:35):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (07:35):
You know, you're right.
Speaker 3 (07:37):
And in this survey, we we track a couple of
you know, political issues where we you know, we ask
about favorability of key political personalities in the state. And
you know, for example, the governor is just down slightly
from what we what we pulled last year, down only
a point, ye telling to governor of Driscoll down two points.
(08:00):
But the other interesting thing that I think needs to
be mentioned is we ask a question about is the
state headed in the right direction or is it seriously
off on the wrong track. In April twenty twenty three,
just three years ago, we found that allost six and
ten said it was in the right direction. Now that's
only thirty six percent. So it's gone from fifty nine
(08:20):
to thirty six percent, which is an incredibly dramatic switch
in that short amount of time. And yet, as you say,
it's not translating to really damaging. Seriously, most of the
leaders on peaking help.
Speaker 2 (08:33):
I guess people just don't make the connection, or maybe
they don't vote. Yeah. I looked at those numbers and
across the board, they didn't look to me that any
particular politician is in trouble, right, I mean, you know,
(08:54):
I mean you you can never expect any politician to
have an eighty percent favorability rating. I mean, that's on,
that's just unrealistic. But Healy has fifty eight percent, and
you know she would, she would beat both of the
Republican challenges Brian short Sleeve. And despite all the money
(09:16):
that Mike Minogue has spent, He's spent millions of dollars
and it's apparently not making an impact.
Speaker 1 (09:22):
Right.
Speaker 3 (09:23):
Well, where as you know, we're pretty early on, but
you're right, in our fall we have Keeley beating both
of those Republican contenders by almost two to one. Yeah,
now there's a long time ago short Sleeve in Minogue.
You know, despite all that money that's being spent, are
probably really not that well known to the average lady yet.
(09:44):
And as you know, people really don't focus until post
Labor Day and you know, really started focusing on an election.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
So here's the problem. Here's a problem in Minogue. The
primary is six days before Labor Day.
Speaker 5 (09:59):
Yeah, so, I mean people will still be on vacation,
they'll be at the beach, they'll be thinking about buying
back to school stuff for their.
Speaker 2 (10:09):
Kids, notebooks and clothes, and then all of a sudden,
oh my god, it's Tuesday. I didn't vote. I mean right,
that a brilliant strategy and when you think about it, puzzling. Puzzling. Yeah, well,
the Secretary of State, William, Secretary of State for Life Galvin,
(10:29):
and make sure that every advantage goes to incumbents. Uh.
You know, I mean the people who are on the
payroll and and uh and who are family and friends
they're going to get out and vote for you know,
if someone works for kind elected official. Uh, we'll have
(10:49):
We'll have a horrible turnout on uh September one, which
I believe is the Tuesday. It's the first day of September.
Look looking at you. I want to open up the
phone lines and see if people are as happy with
what's going on as as maybe I think they are,
although your polls certainly shows something different. I did focus
(11:12):
on that right track, right direction, wrong track question. That
was a really good question and it shows over three
years that the confidence that people have in this state,
and we've seen it in so many ways. I'm going
to open up the phone lines if you'd like to
talk with a real life poster. By the way, posters
are so important because when the politicians rip through the
(11:35):
internals of this poll and other polls. They're seeing what
they either want to see or what they don't see.
If they see what they want to see, they're going
to stay on track. If they see something different, they'll
make an adjustment. Six one seven, two, five, four, ten
thirty six one seven, nine three one ten thirty. If
you're like to talk to a real live poster about
(11:55):
this poll, and I'd like to ask you as my listeners,
I'm gonna have you. We'll take a quick little poll here. Uh.
One of the questions people were asked, do you think
things here in Massachusetts? I generally had it in the
right direction. Are they off on the wrong track, right direction,
wrong track? Or don't know? You can answer that question
(12:18):
and also have talked to Ernie Piccoppolis. Ask any questions
you want about the fine art of political polling, and
it is an art six one seven, two, five, four
ten thirty six one seven nine three one ten thirty.
Speaker 1 (12:31):
It's Night Side with Dan Ray Boston's news Radio.
Speaker 2 (12:37):
We're talking with Ernie Piccoppolis. He is the CEO president
of Polity Research Consulting. It's been a group that has
been doing polls polling here and just completed a poll
for the Massachusetts a business council. I believe if I
probably have butchered that it's who Actually.
Speaker 3 (12:57):
It's Retails Association.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Of Massages Retailers Association. We talked with John Harris last hour. Fine.
And so your group is polity Research consulting. Do you
do mostly political polling or do you pulling? Do you
do polling for businesses dealing with their products as opposed
to the political atmospherics.
Speaker 3 (13:19):
It's a mixture of all of that, Dan. We also
do international surveys on foreign affairs with a couple of
think tanks based in DC. We do polling for as
you said, for businesses dealing with product to our issue concerns,
and also political political reach as well.
Speaker 2 (13:41):
I don't get a sense that people are excited about
the political races here in Massachusetts, which I don't understand
because they only come around, you know, every four years.
Well you do have, obviously, this is this is really
a Massachusetts yere. Let's get some phone calls. Let me go.
Let's start it off in six months in two, five, four,
ten thirty, six, one seven ninth, free, one ten thirty.
(14:03):
Let me go to Manny in Boston. Manny, Welcome to
night side, you're wrong with my friend Ernie Pacopolis of
Polity Research Consulting. What's your comment to question Manny.
Speaker 6 (14:13):
So, didn't our wonderful governor burned through eight hundred and
fifty million dollars in the Rainy Day Fund to protect
Biden's illegal aliens?
Speaker 2 (14:24):
Well, I don't know that she went to the Rainy
Day Fund. She did spend a lot of money on
folks who were here under less than legal circumstances. Yes,
hotels and we we became for all intents and purposes,
a sanctuary state. And there were uh and there was
there was a lot of that. I love to talk
(14:45):
about the cab company that had the no big contract
on Cape carr Uh for six million dollars, and every
time they picked up an illegal, a person who was
here illegally to get them to arrive to the supermarket
or to a doctor's appointment, the cab fair started at
(15:06):
forty dollars.
Speaker 4 (15:08):
Yeah, so that's I mean.
Speaker 2 (15:10):
It's not bad if you run in a cab company
when you started from business.
Speaker 4 (15:15):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (15:16):
I mean the government is I mean here he is mismanaged.
I think the state financially, I think why then, why
then did.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
The poll numbers that that Ernie has. I don't think
that she's in serious trouble at this point.
Speaker 4 (15:33):
Doesn't sound like it. But I don't.
Speaker 2 (15:35):
Why isn't Why ain't.
Speaker 6 (15:36):
The candidate's hammering home on on that, you know, on
the fact that she's mismanaged the state financially. I just
don't get it.
Speaker 2 (15:46):
Ernie, let me get Let me get Ernie in here,
because he can answer that question better than I can.
I tend to agree with you, Manny, But Ernie, is
there a different strategy that these politicians have to follow
to get better results?
Speaker 3 (16:00):
Well, that's an excellent question. I'm not sure I can
answer that, but I did want to get to Manny's
point a little bit. We had a question in the
survey that asked do you think state government here in
Massachusetts spends too much, not enough, or about the right amount?
Speaker 2 (16:16):
Last year's question is it too long? Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 3 (16:21):
And the porridge this year that he that they spend
too much thirty six percent, the plurality said the state
government spends too much. Now last year the plurality said
they spend about the right amount. So there's another case
where this is flipped between last time in this time.
So now the plurality of people agree with manny basically
(16:43):
that the state government is spending too much right now.
So I just wanted to throw that in as a kind.
Speaker 4 (16:49):
Of a number.
Speaker 2 (16:51):
Is that question? What is numbers? That question?
Speaker 3 (16:53):
That's question fourteen on the poll.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
Okay, I'm just scrambling around here to try to find Okay, Yeah,
in general, do you think state uman here in Massachusetts
spends too much, not enough, or about the right amount.
So in twenty twenty four they said too much thirty
four percent. Uh, last year it was down, and this
year it's up thirty six So that's not a big.
Speaker 3 (17:15):
Swing, right, Well, it's a big swing. It's a big
swing in the sense that last year the plurality most
people said it was about the right amount at thirty
three percent. So that has flipped now to the point
where the plurality now say they spend too much. You're right.
It's not a dramatic shift, not as dramatic as the
right track we're on track number, but it gives you
(17:35):
a sense of another indication of where people stand on
issues like spending like taxes.
Speaker 2 (17:42):
Right man, What I'm saying is it would seem to
me now again it would seem to me that people
if if we've been spending a long time, and I
think Manny's would answer, Manny, how would you answer that?
Do you think state goverman here in Massachusetts spends too much,
not enough, or or about the right amount.
Speaker 6 (18:00):
Way too much because people who need it still aren't
getting services.
Speaker 2 (18:03):
Absolutely, that's that is exactly the point that the Republicans
should be hammering home. I'm not sure they are. Yeah,
what I was just saying, Ernie, And again I'm not
equivaling with you. I'm just looking at numbers from April
to twenty twenty four. The too much number went from
thirty four to thirty six.
Speaker 4 (18:19):
Yeah, right, much better, not traumatic, You're right, you're right.
Speaker 2 (18:22):
And the about the right amount did drop from thirty
one to twenty seven. And then on the other end
at four don't know, you got fourteen to seventeen, So
nearly twenty percent.
Speaker 3 (18:38):
They have no clue, right, And again, Dan, these are
registered voters. This isn't just you know, the general population.
These are people who are registered either as Democrats Republicans
are unenrolled slash independent. So these are people who are
supposedly supposed to be a little bit in the know
on what's going on.
Speaker 2 (18:58):
Yeah, I'll tell you that, Scar, that's scary. That's what
That's what I'm taking out of this poll. What this
pole is saying to me is that that that people,
even the ones who are upset, don't take that discomfort
to the polls. And why is the Republicans or or
or any non incumbent, whether they're a Democrat running against
(19:21):
the Republican, whoever's in power. Now the Republicans say, well,
we're a minority, we don't have any we don't have
any sway up there. We need more Republicans.
Speaker 4 (19:30):
Well you know, I mean you need a lot of
upset voters.
Speaker 6 (19:35):
Yeah, well there are a.
Speaker 2 (19:36):
Lot of upset voters, but I don't think the voters
follow through them the being upset. It's like if you
if you had a poll right now, okay, which was
a binding poll amongst voters in Massachusetts as to whether
or not John Henry should have to sell the Red Sox,
what do you think that vote would do? Thirty nine?
(19:57):
But it would have been it's an eighty twenty split. Okay.
Now they had no power over that. So they can
either get rid of John Henry or make John Henry
stay forever. But gut they have all sorts of is
they have all sorts of authority the people over the
elected officials, and they choosing not to really use it.
In my opinion, Hey, Manny, I love to call. That
(20:19):
was a really good call to start us off. Hopefully
some of the folks that want to follow along here.
Speaker 6 (20:23):
Okay, okay, thank you, yeah, thanks Manny, keep.
Speaker 2 (20:26):
Listening, Thank you much. Okay, Manny, we got the news
coming up here. Ernie, stay right with us. I'm hoping
we hear more listeners from Massachusetts particularly. We have Bill
in Pennsylvania up next. I'll get Bill, but I'd like
to hear from Massachusetts voters. Are you happy? Do you
feel that the gut that the government, not the governor,
but the government, which includes the legislature, the House of Representatives,
(20:50):
the Speaker, the Senate, President, your members of the whoever
represents you in the House of Representatives. There's one hundred
and sixty of them, there's forty state senators. Are they
doing their job for you? Are you just working your
butt off, spending more money, working harder than ever before,
paying more for everything that you are, that you need
(21:10):
to buy, and yet you either are going to choose
not to go to the polls because you vote in
your mind doesn't count and it does count, by the way,
or because no matter who you vote for, you always
vote for the loser. I'd love to hear from you.
Six one, seven, two, five, four, ten thirty six one seven,
nine three one ten thirty poster. Ernie Pacopolis is with us,
(21:33):
coming back on Nightside.
Speaker 1 (21:35):
You're on Night Side with Dan Ray. I'm w b
Z Boston's news Radio.
Speaker 2 (21:41):
Yes, I do believe and awaken one. I am a
walking billboard that proved when he really does work. We're
talking with Ernie Pacoppolis. He is the CEO of Polity
Research Consultings, been involved in polling of all sorts for
many years. Let's keep it rolling here, going to go
to a bill in Pennsylvania. Bill you were next here
(22:03):
on night Side. Welcome. How are you, sir?
Speaker 4 (22:06):
I'm doing good. Dan. Hey, I wanted to ask your
guests a couple of questions.
Speaker 2 (22:10):
Yeah, he's the guy normally does the questions, but now
you put him on the spot.
Speaker 3 (22:15):
Okay, Ernie.
Speaker 4 (22:18):
Ernie's never called me, but Ernie, I want to ask
something now. When I watch television Okay, I see. Uh,
They'll say that this is a poster, Republican poster, and
then this lady over here is a Democrat poster. And
I was wondering, Okay, so if I'm if I'm a
Republican running for office, do I look for a quote
(22:41):
unquote Republican poster or how does that work?
Speaker 7 (22:44):
Ernie?
Speaker 3 (22:45):
Yes, Typically that's that's what happens. There are there are
groups that are you know, easily identified as aligning with
one of the other parties. So if you're a candidate,
you're going to look for a firm that has experienced
dealing with issues that are important to Republicans anidate some
Republican voters. So the answer is yes, absolutely, you would
kick out how do I what?
Speaker 4 (23:05):
How do how do I how do they help me
get get elected? Upholster?
Speaker 3 (23:12):
Well, typically what they would do in addition to the
simple kind of horse race numbers of who's winning and
who's losing, they they a good survey will test a
series of messages, both messages that you may want to
use and messages that your opponents will want to use,
and see how effective those messages are among the voting population,
(23:34):
so that you know you'll see for just as an example,
you might see that you know, pocketbook issues, affordability issues
move voters more than any other issue. So if you're
a candidate, you're going to want to harp on those
issues because you know that from your survey. So a
good survey will test those kind of messages for you
and tell you which ones it's worth it's worth spending
time on, and other issues you know you don't want
(23:57):
to waste your money on because they're not that important
to voters.
Speaker 4 (24:00):
Okay, And I just want to ask you, why do
you think why do you think everybody's always underestimating Trump?
Speaker 3 (24:09):
Well, you know, if you look tonight at the candidates
that the President has endorsed in the primaries around the country,
he seems to be continuing on his winning streak of
I think Thomas Massey and Kentucky lost tonight, Bill Cassidy
lost down in Louisiana.
Speaker 2 (24:30):
So I would not.
Speaker 3 (24:31):
Underestimate President Trump's political skills in any sense.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
By the way, I also think that I also think
that Trump endorsed one of the candidates in Kentucky that's
running to replace Mitch McConnell. I think he's he's had
a good night there. Now he's a bad night, and
that Cassidy has announced that he is out on a
(24:55):
vote with the Democrats on the War Powers Resolution Act. Ok.
Speaker 3 (25:01):
Yeah, I heard that. I heard that. Yeah, a little retribution,
A little quick retribution on the.
Speaker 2 (25:05):
Part, very quick. And it's just interesting. But it does
show me there's not a lot of character and a
guy like Cassidy if he's gonna if on the one hand,
he's going to support Trump when he wins, but then
when Trump takes him out, he's going to turn and
go the other way. Boy, that's that's yeah, that's an
interesting twist. You would you know, you could say that.
You know, he was very diplomatic the other day. He said, well,
(25:28):
I had a chance to participate in democracy and it's
all well and good. Oh but I lost. Now I'm
going to vote against him. I don't know. Yeah, that's politicians, politicians.
Speaker 4 (25:38):
Yeah, you know one other question, Dan, Sure, go ahead,
built Ernie. It's just my theory, okay. But every time
I see a poll on Trump, okay, because they were
so wrong in twenty sixteen, they were so wrong in
twenty twenty, and when I see a poll on Trump,
I automatically add ten points to it or from it. Well,
(25:59):
you're right, the polling industry in general did take a
bit of a hit in twenty sixteen, and I think
the industry in general kind of retrenched and tried to
look inward and try to, you know, develop new technologies
and new methods to try to make it make our
business more accurate. And I think we have done that.
Speaker 3 (26:17):
But you know, there's also the factor that early on,
a lot of voters were hesitant to say that they
were supporting President or candidate Trump in twenty sixteen because
there was it was a controversial thing to do, frankly,
so I think a lot of the undercounting happened there.
But it's interesting that, you know, in our poll, we
(26:39):
did ask a favorability for President Trump, and we asked
it last year as well, and he was actually the
only person on our list of political personalities who went
up a little bit. In Massachusetts, he actually went up
three points from twenty eight percent to thirty one percent.
Now that's not a good rating, obviously, it's sixty six
percent unfavorable. But it's interesting that he was the only
(27:01):
one who picked.
Speaker 4 (27:02):
Upward are you using are you are you using ai
already Earnie and the pole stuff.
Speaker 3 (27:08):
No, absolutely not no. And I think that that whole
issue is yet to be resolved in terms of, you know,
the best way of introducing that. And we have not
at all involved.
Speaker 2 (27:20):
With that guy. All right, Bill, I got to let
you run because I'm running out of time here. Got
to get to my break. Okay, thank you, man, I
appreciate you, Shoe, thank you. I have a great one six, one, seven, two, five, four,
ten thirty. Got Kennon Walton. We'll get you up next,
Eric and Attleborough and some real view. This is an opportunity.
Everybody complains on pollsters, posters, posters. Well, I think the
posters do a pretty good job. I know that Dave
(27:42):
Paleologus did a great job. There was a poster in
Iowa in twenty twenty four that I when I heard
the polls out of the Des Moines Register, I said,
that's got to be crazy. She had Vice President Harris
winning Iowa by ten points. And that's what just wasn't
gonna happen. And Dave Paleologus went out and did a
quick poll and came back with very much the numbers
(28:05):
that was right on. Trump carried Islway ten points.
Speaker 3 (28:10):
Well yeah, yeah, yeah, But I was just going to say,
you know, in defense was my industry a little bit.
If you look at even the sixteen election and twenty
and twenty four, if you put together all of the
polls and average it all out, in general, the polling
was like within two or three points of the actual
popular vote numbers. Now, the electoral College went a whole
(28:31):
different thing.
Speaker 2 (28:32):
I think the polling in twenty twenty four was right.
You know, President Trump likes to talk about its only inside.
It wasn't a landslide. He got like nifty points something
percent of them right, and he won all the battleground states,
which was great. But you know, a landslide is when
Lyndon Johnson wins sixty one or sixty two percent of
the voter. When Ronald Reagan beats Walter Mondale with forty
(28:54):
nine states to one, Mondale only carries Minnesota. We'll take
a break back with any Polis. His company is Polity Research,
Polity Research Consulting. Coming back on Nightside.
Speaker 1 (29:07):
You're on night Side with Dan Ray on WBZ Boston's
news radio.
Speaker 2 (29:13):
I guess Ernie Pacoppolis from Polity Research Consulting is just
on a pretty comprehensive poll on the state of politics
in Massachusetts. People are upset, but that upset does not
appear that it's going to have much of an impact
in the elections. This this fault, well actually this summer
when you think about September one, Monday, September one, let
(29:37):
me go to Ken in Walton, Ken. You are next
on nightside. Welcome.
Speaker 7 (29:41):
Thanks Dan. Yeah, I wanted to h I wasn't going
to go here, but you just mentioned it. I mean,
Trump got forty nine point eight percent of the vote.
I think it's a little bit important only because more
people did vote against him than for him.
Speaker 2 (29:56):
You know, Well, but then you can turn around more
people people voted against Harris then voted against Trump. I mean,
I just think that, you know, when he starts talking
about the landslide and a mandate, that's just not true.
Speaker 7 (30:10):
That's my That's where I'm going with the forty nine
point eight He won an election, no question, but certainly
not a landslide.
Speaker 8 (30:18):
You know what.
Speaker 7 (30:19):
I really wanted to bring up and ask your guests
to if if there's any date on this or any
I didn't think he can in for I think it's
interesting my Congresswoman Catherine Clark has two primary opponents, and
of course Ed Markey has Steph Moulton. But it just
(30:39):
seems like at the state level, I think most of
our the Democratic can come with a running unopposed, and
I think like Andrea Campbell would be a big target
in the Democratic primary, but as far as I know,
she's running unopposed.
Speaker 2 (30:55):
So well, first of all, I guess the fact that
that the Democrats are running unopposed, that says to me
that the Democratic Party is happy with the candidates that
they have elected. That's what I would expect a candidate
would do within a party. I don't I wonder how many,
and I don't have the numbers in front of me,
(31:17):
how many of the Democrats in Congress or whatever are
going to face a Republican challenger. I mean, I oftentimes
candidates go not only unopposed in their own party, which
is fine, you know the party likes them, but then
they go unopposed them and they basically have no challenge whatsoever.
And that can happen the other way too. By the way,
(31:37):
I don't think it's good for anybody to be that
that fat, happy and content and comfortable. I think everybody
should have some should have an opponent of some sort.
Speaker 4 (31:49):
Yeah, I agree.
Speaker 7 (31:50):
I think I think most, you know, would be challengers.
Just think it's a depth ROMs that they want to lose, right,
that they that they're not loyal to the party.
Speaker 2 (32:00):
Oh, I don't know. Because up in Maine you have
this guy Platner who's running who ran basically ran Governor
Mills out of the race.
Speaker 4 (32:11):
Yeah.
Speaker 7 (32:11):
Yeah, I mean, so there's clearly examples of it. And
even though that, I mean they were both running for
you know, he wasn't running for her seat, right, Oh.
Speaker 2 (32:21):
They were competing for the right to run against Susan Collins.
She's an incumbent governor and she was forced. Remember a
year ago, she had sort of a very testing exchange
with President Trump at the White House, and I thought
she good, you know, good for her. She kind of
took him on a little bit and in his in
his home ballpark, you know, the White House, And yeah,
(32:45):
that didn't work too well for her, at least in
Maine it did. I mean, the both parties are kind
of going in different directions, and I'm not sure that's
good for the country, to be honest with you, Ken.
Speaker 7 (32:57):
Yeah, no, I agree, But I asked your guests, I mean,
is there anything you can infer? I mean, I think
this might be too orthogonal, but is there anything you
can infer from your polling that that there'll be primary candidate,
you know, against the incumbent? Or is that there's really
nothing new here.
Speaker 3 (33:17):
Yeah, we don't have anything specifically in this poll on
that issue. We do, excuse me. We did do favorability
ratings for Senator Markey and for Seth Molten uh, and
the interesting dynamic there is. Well, first of all, Senator
Markey gets a fifty one favorable to thirty unfavorable, and
Seth Moulton gets a thirty seven favorable to twenty three unfavorable.
(33:39):
But forty percent can't rate him, which is somewhat understandable
since he's a congressman from a section of Massachusetts. So
this is a statewide poll. But you know, it's not
a bad ratio between favorable and unfavorable from Bolton. It's
thirty seven percent to twenty three percent. It's in the
positive range at least, But yeah, it's it's a difficult,
(34:00):
you know, particularly in a state like It's a difficult
haul to try to challenge an incumbenty.
Speaker 2 (34:05):
I think I think that race is going to be
a lot closer than people realize. They said there's a
pull out a couple of weeks ago, which suggested that
it's a little bit closer, and I think that Marky
has numbers that show that as well. So, Uh, it's
it's it's going to be a race. I've got to
get one more in here. Ken has always appreciate your
thoughtful calls.
Speaker 7 (34:25):
Thank you.
Speaker 2 (34:27):
Let me go to Eric again. Let me go wrap
it up here with Eric and Attleborough. Eric, you're on
next with Ernie Paulopolis.
Speaker 8 (34:36):
Oh, thank you.
Speaker 2 (34:37):
Dan.
Speaker 8 (34:38):
My Uh, real concern and you know it's said many
people might see it this way, but the money that's
in politics, uh, on the specifically side, today's results in
Kentucky where Thomas Massey was unseated in the Republican priarity
against the candidate, aside from the fact of the record spending, uh,
(35:00):
you know, through super Pac money, through you know, Millionnalyison
and Paul Singer. Aside from that, the candidate wouldn't even
show up to the debates with Massey, you know. And
I just looked at you know, there's really something fundamentally
rotten with the concept of the constitutional federal republic, and
we've got to get this money out of politics. I'm
(35:22):
just curious your take on that. I don't know.
Speaker 2 (35:26):
Well, my feeling is if you get the money out
of politics, will it'll be truly become an oligarchy because
the only people who will be able to run for
office a people who can sell.
Speaker 8 (35:35):
Fund well well okay, I mean, but they are aside
from maybe an instrument being set up. And you know,
this is obviously just a ideal type of thing, you know,
an instrument that's set up to fun reasonable campaigns. And
I just like Citizens United was in my lifetime. I
(35:57):
just I've seen everything kind of I don't know, it's
like seems like something ever since Citizens United, the Supreme
Court decision which pretty much ruled that I believe on
along the lines that uh, campaign donations were considered freedom
of speech.
Speaker 2 (36:17):
Yeah.
Speaker 8 (36:17):
Yeah, and with that any entity pain taxes, I guess
it has freedom of speech.
Speaker 2 (36:25):
Again, Eric, I mean, I don't know who you're rooting
for whatever, But the problem is to me, it's pretty simple,
and that is, if if you say to people, hey,
you know you you you you cannot raise money or whatever.
Then then the only people who are going to run
for office of people who have private planes. And you're
gonna run in California, the average guy is going to
have to drive his car down the state. If I'm
(36:47):
a wealthy guy, I can fly from San Francisco to
la in an hour, and I can be all sorts
of speeches and events. That's all that's for me. The problem, well,
and the First Amendment issue, the the the case you're
referring to, went I thought the correct way in terms
of freedom.
Speaker 8 (37:03):
Of so means for one, you know, if we're gonna
have an oligarchy, I'd rather just have it be an
overt olodochy as to the current.
Speaker 2 (37:13):
Well, I guess who gets to pick the oligarchs. Hey, Eric,
I wish it called earlier, that you open up a
real good area. We'll we'll have more conversations about it.
I expect you back from you. Thank you so much,
Ernie Poppolis, thank you very much for your time tonight,
and congratulations on the poll and we'll have you. You
are now in the rotation with Paleologus and Spencer.
Speaker 3 (37:35):
Okay, I appreciate it. Thank you very much.
Speaker 2 (37:39):
Come on, with something interesting. Let us know. Okay, thanks Verdie,
appreciate it very much. We'll do all right. We come
back when we talk about Iron. What's taking the White
House so long to make a decision. The Iron has
a history basically delayed, delayed to delay. I think they're
doing it very effectively. I want to see this thing
over with like yesterday. I'd love to hear from you
(38:01):
coming back on Night Side.
It's nice eyes with Ray. I'm going you Eazy Boston's
News Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
All right, welcome back everyone, Thank you very much, Dan Watkins.
As we move into the nine o'clock hour here on
Nightside on a Tuesday night, it is a pretty warm
Tuesday night out there. Keep the windows open, I guess,
or you're lucky enough to have a fan of amir conditioning.
You can use a little bit of that, that's for sure.
We am about to talk with a friend of many years.
(00:32):
He's a pollster, Ernie Pacopolis. Ernie is the CEO of
Polity Polity. I hope I'm pronouncing it correctly, Ernie Research Consulting.
And you have just done a poll, a web based
survey among six hundred and eight Massachusetts registered voters. This
(00:53):
ran from April twenty ninth to May seventh, and it's
a really interesting poll. We talk with John hirsch Hurst
about it earlier this evening. I guess it was the
Retailers Association of Massachusetts which had you do this poll.
(01:14):
Give us the top line summary from your perspective. What
did you learn your company's been around? First, I always
like to qualify lay the foundation if you will have
a witness you guys have been doing this for how long?
You've been a Welser for many years?
Speaker 3 (01:30):
Yeah, I started in the business stand back in nineteen
seventy eight, so whatever that is, it's more than I
want to remember, I guess, but forty eight years company
forty thank you, But with polity, it's since twenty nineteen
started that company.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
And so this has been life's work for you. And
I know that we have lots of people who will
say to me, all, I don't believe in polls, even
though I think you know. One of the great posters
is I guess I found out today a cousin of
(02:08):
you is Dave Paleologus, especially temple at Emerson and David
Suffolk and now you troyka here that you guys take
this stuff seriously. Explain to people why it's important to
the poster to get an accurate result in the poll,
and the poster doesn't really have a dog in the fight.
Speaker 3 (02:29):
That's correct, it's important for you know, probably the most
important part of public opinion research is a sampling process
to make sure that the sample of people in this case,
as you mentioned, six hundred and eight registered voters accurately
or as closely as possible accurately reflects the reality of
the registered voter population the Massachusetts and we do that
(02:51):
in a number of ways. We do what's called quota sampling,
so that we make sure that the split of males
and females is about what it should be, that the
age breakdown is what it should be, that the regional
breakdown in Massachusetts roughly mirrors what the actual population breakdown is.
(03:11):
So we build these into the sample to make sure
that the results are going to reflect to the degree
that research can an accurate assessment of how voters feel.
And you asked me to talk about a bottom line here.
You know, there's an old adage in public opinion research.
Sometimes results whisper to you, and sometimes they scream at you.
(03:35):
I think in this survey there's a lot of screaming
going on from rigstered voters in Massachusetts, and it centers
around their concern with what has come to be called
the affordability crisis, which we used to call the cost
of living crisis. But one of the questions we ask
at the top of the survey dan is an open
ended question where we ask people to tell us, in
(03:58):
their own words, what are the one two most important
problems facing Massachusetts today, and we stress the ones that
affect you and your family the most. And when we
code those responses together, we found that eight out of
the top ten responses have something to do with what
we call pocketbook issues, whether it's the cost of gas taxes,
(04:19):
the cost of healthcare, groceries, inflation. That's a pretty remarkable
result in having, you know, eight out of ten of
the top responses dealing with that when you know other
issues that you know some people think, are you know,
more important or equally important, like for example, climate change
or education.
Speaker 2 (04:39):
Full climate climate change is way down, way down because
that's because they we just got through a tough winter.
I don't know people's.
Speaker 3 (04:50):
It could be. But the other interesting thing I think
that you know, that's sort of the thing that's going
on and often lights is just the affordability issues. The other
issue is when we ask people, well, okay, you told
us that there's affordability crisis, how do you think the
leaders on Beacon Hill are contributing to that? Are they
helping or are they hurting? And the result there is
(05:11):
pretty remarkable. We get a majority fifty three percent who
say they think the leaders on Beacon Hill are hurting
the effort to make life more affordable in Massachusetts. That's
pretty astounding. That's an astounding result to me.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
Yeah. Yet, yet when you run polls on and again,
I'm not here to advocate for one party or the other,
or to advocate for a candidate or the other. But
as I said to a couple of folks today, if
I had taken the raw numbers of this poll and
made it so, and he handed it to a political
(05:48):
strategist and said, Okay, this is a poll from a
major state. You know, we're not talking about you know,
Utah or a Rhode Island. It's a major state. And
you looked at all that you did, and you took
out the names of the politicians so they wouldn't know
exactly who you were talking about. When you see that
in general, do you think state leaders on Beacon Hill?
(06:09):
Now that can mean think different things to different people, obviously,
But when you think about state leaders, you can think
about the governor, you can think about when it says
on Beacon Hill we're talking about state leaders certainly think
about the legislature. And by a two to one margin,
they're telling you that in their opinion. State leaders, by
(06:30):
a two to one margin have hurt affordability as opposed
to helping affordability, which would be the most important job
that a state leader theoretically would have. And yet I
don't get a sense that Massachusetts voters are going to
do much to change things. Forget the governor's race, forget
(06:51):
you know, the statewide races. I think that I don't
think this is. But you know what happens is if
you get elected state Rep. A couple of times or
state Senate a couple of times, you're there to you
die if you want.
Speaker 3 (07:06):
To be It's it's a lifetime appointment. Yeah, yeah, it is.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
It is. And you know, I talked to so many
friends of mine who will say, uh, oh, you know
those people on Beacon Hill. They're terrible, They're terrible. And
I'll say, well, what do you think about your state rep? Oh?
My guys, good guy, good guy. I see him at
the diner every once in a while and he says hello.
I don't know if he knows my name or not,
but you know, he'll weigh at me. Does it take
(07:33):
much to get your vote?
Speaker 3 (07:35):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (07:35):
You know, you're right.
Speaker 3 (07:37):
And in this survey, we we track a couple of
you know, political issues where we you know, we ask
about favorability of key political personalities in the state. And
you know, for example, the governor is just down slightly
from what we what we pulled last year, down only
a point, ye telling to governor of Driscoll down two points.
(08:00):
But the other interesting thing that I think needs to
be mentioned is we ask a question about is the
state headed in the right direction or is it seriously
off on the wrong track. In April twenty twenty three,
just three years ago, we found that allost six and
ten said it was in the right direction. Now that's
only thirty six percent. So it's gone from fifty nine
(08:20):
to thirty six percent, which is an incredibly dramatic switch
in that short amount of time. And yet, as you say,
it's not translating to really damaging. Seriously, most of the
leaders on peaking help.
Speaker 2 (08:33):
I guess people just don't make the connection, or maybe
they don't vote. Yeah. I looked at those numbers and
across the board, they didn't look to me that any
particular politician is in trouble, right, I mean, you know,
(08:54):
I mean you you can never expect any politician to
have an eighty percent favorability rating. I mean, that's on,
that's just unrealistic. But Healy has fifty eight percent, and
you know she would, she would beat both of the
Republican challenges Brian short Sleeve. And despite all the money
(09:16):
that Mike Minogue has spent, He's spent millions of dollars
and it's apparently not making an impact.
Speaker 1 (09:22):
Right.
Speaker 3 (09:23):
Well, where as you know, we're pretty early on, but
you're right, in our fall we have Keeley beating both
of those Republican contenders by almost two to one. Yeah,
now there's a long time ago short Sleeve in Minogue.
You know, despite all that money that's being spent, are
probably really not that well known to the average lady yet.
(09:44):
And as you know, people really don't focus until post
Labor Day and you know, really started focusing on an election.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
So here's the problem. Here's a problem in Minogue. The
primary is six days before Labor Day.
Speaker 5 (09:59):
Yeah, so, I mean people will still be on vacation,
they'll be at the beach, they'll be thinking about buying
back to school stuff for their.
Speaker 2 (10:09):
Kids, notebooks and clothes, and then all of a sudden,
oh my god, it's Tuesday. I didn't vote. I mean right,
that a brilliant strategy and when you think about it, puzzling. Puzzling. Yeah, well,
the Secretary of State, William, Secretary of State for Life Galvin,
(10:29):
and make sure that every advantage goes to incumbents. Uh.
You know, I mean the people who are on the
payroll and and uh and who are family and friends
they're going to get out and vote for you know,
if someone works for kind elected official. Uh, we'll have
(10:49):
We'll have a horrible turnout on uh September one, which
I believe is the Tuesday. It's the first day of September.
Look looking at you. I want to open up the
phone lines and see if people are as happy with
what's going on as as maybe I think they are,
although your polls certainly shows something different. I did focus
(11:12):
on that right track, right direction, wrong track question. That
was a really good question and it shows over three
years that the confidence that people have in this state,
and we've seen it in so many ways. I'm going
to open up the phone lines if you'd like to
talk with a real life poster. By the way, posters
are so important because when the politicians rip through the
(11:35):
internals of this poll and other polls. They're seeing what
they either want to see or what they don't see.
If they see what they want to see, they're going
to stay on track. If they see something different, they'll
make an adjustment. Six one seven, two, five, four, ten
thirty six one seven, nine three one ten thirty. If
you're like to talk to a real live poster about
(11:55):
this poll, and I'd like to ask you as my listeners,
I'm gonna have you. We'll take a quick little poll here. Uh.
One of the questions people were asked, do you think
things here in Massachusetts? I generally had it in the
right direction. Are they off on the wrong track, right direction,
wrong track? Or don't know? You can answer that question
(12:18):
and also have talked to Ernie Piccoppolis. Ask any questions
you want about the fine art of political polling, and
it is an art six one seven, two, five, four
ten thirty six one seven nine three one ten thirty.
Speaker 1 (12:31):
It's Night Side with Dan Ray Boston's news Radio.
Speaker 2 (12:37):
We're talking with Ernie Piccoppolis. He is the CEO president
of Polity Research Consulting. It's been a group that has
been doing polls polling here and just completed a poll
for the Massachusetts a business council. I believe if I
probably have butchered that it's who Actually.
Speaker 3 (12:57):
It's Retails Association.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Of Massages Retailers Association. We talked with John Harris last hour. Fine.
And so your group is polity Research consulting. Do you
do mostly political polling or do you pulling? Do you
do polling for businesses dealing with their products as opposed
to the political atmospherics.
Speaker 3 (13:19):
It's a mixture of all of that, Dan. We also
do international surveys on foreign affairs with a couple of
think tanks based in DC. We do polling for as
you said, for businesses dealing with product to our issue concerns,
and also political political reach as well.
Speaker 2 (13:41):
I don't get a sense that people are excited about
the political races here in Massachusetts, which I don't understand
because they only come around, you know, every four years.
Well you do have, obviously, this is this is really
a Massachusetts yere. Let's get some phone calls. Let me go.
Let's start it off in six months in two, five, four,
ten thirty, six, one seven ninth, free, one ten thirty.
(14:03):
Let me go to Manny in Boston. Manny, Welcome to
night side, you're wrong with my friend Ernie Pacopolis of
Polity Research Consulting. What's your comment to question Manny.
Speaker 6 (14:13):
So, didn't our wonderful governor burned through eight hundred and
fifty million dollars in the Rainy Day Fund to protect
Biden's illegal aliens?
Speaker 2 (14:24):
Well, I don't know that she went to the Rainy
Day Fund. She did spend a lot of money on
folks who were here under less than legal circumstances. Yes,
hotels and we we became for all intents and purposes,
a sanctuary state. And there were uh and there was
there was a lot of that. I love to talk
(14:45):
about the cab company that had the no big contract
on Cape carr Uh for six million dollars, and every
time they picked up an illegal, a person who was
here illegally to get them to arrive to the supermarket
or to a doctor's appointment, the cab fair started at
(15:06):
forty dollars.
Speaker 4 (15:08):
Yeah, so that's I mean.
Speaker 2 (15:10):
It's not bad if you run in a cab company
when you started from business.
Speaker 4 (15:15):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (15:16):
I mean the government is I mean here he is mismanaged.
I think the state financially, I think why then, why
then did.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
The poll numbers that that Ernie has. I don't think
that she's in serious trouble at this point.
Speaker 4 (15:33):
Doesn't sound like it. But I don't.
Speaker 2 (15:35):
Why isn't Why ain't.
Speaker 6 (15:36):
The candidate's hammering home on on that, you know, on
the fact that she's mismanaged the state financially. I just
don't get it.
Speaker 2 (15:46):
Ernie, let me get Let me get Ernie in here,
because he can answer that question better than I can.
I tend to agree with you, Manny, But Ernie, is
there a different strategy that these politicians have to follow
to get better results?
Speaker 3 (16:00):
Well, that's an excellent question. I'm not sure I can
answer that, but I did want to get to Manny's
point a little bit. We had a question in the
survey that asked do you think state government here in
Massachusetts spends too much, not enough, or about the right amount?
Speaker 2 (16:16):
Last year's question is it too long? Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 3 (16:21):
And the porridge this year that he that they spend
too much thirty six percent, the plurality said the state
government spends too much. Now last year the plurality said
they spend about the right amount. So there's another case
where this is flipped between last time in this time.
So now the plurality of people agree with manny basically
(16:43):
that the state government is spending too much right now.
So I just wanted to throw that in as a kind.
Speaker 4 (16:49):
Of a number.
Speaker 2 (16:51):
Is that question? What is numbers? That question?
Speaker 3 (16:53):
That's question fourteen on the poll.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
Okay, I'm just scrambling around here to try to find Okay, Yeah,
in general, do you think state uman here in Massachusetts
spends too much, not enough, or about the right amount.
So in twenty twenty four they said too much thirty
four percent. Uh, last year it was down, and this
year it's up thirty six So that's not a big.
Speaker 3 (17:15):
Swing, right, Well, it's a big swing. It's a big
swing in the sense that last year the plurality most
people said it was about the right amount at thirty
three percent. So that has flipped now to the point
where the plurality now say they spend too much. You're right.
It's not a dramatic shift, not as dramatic as the
right track we're on track number, but it gives you
(17:35):
a sense of another indication of where people stand on
issues like spending like taxes.
Speaker 2 (17:42):
Right man, What I'm saying is it would seem to
me now again it would seem to me that people
if if we've been spending a long time, and I
think Manny's would answer, Manny, how would you answer that?
Do you think state goverman here in Massachusetts spends too much,
not enough, or or about the right amount.
Speaker 6 (18:00):
Way too much because people who need it still aren't
getting services.
Speaker 2 (18:03):
Absolutely, that's that is exactly the point that the Republicans
should be hammering home. I'm not sure they are. Yeah,
what I was just saying, Ernie, And again I'm not
equivaling with you. I'm just looking at numbers from April
to twenty twenty four. The too much number went from
thirty four to thirty six.
Speaker 4 (18:19):
Yeah, right, much better, not traumatic, You're right, you're right.
Speaker 2 (18:22):
And the about the right amount did drop from thirty
one to twenty seven. And then on the other end
at four don't know, you got fourteen to seventeen, So
nearly twenty percent.
Speaker 3 (18:38):
They have no clue, right, And again, Dan, these are
registered voters. This isn't just you know, the general population.
These are people who are registered either as Democrats Republicans
are unenrolled slash independent. So these are people who are
supposedly supposed to be a little bit in the know
on what's going on.
Speaker 2 (18:58):
Yeah, I'll tell you that, Scar, that's scary. That's what
That's what I'm taking out of this poll. What this
pole is saying to me is that that that people,
even the ones who are upset, don't take that discomfort
to the polls. And why is the Republicans or or
or any non incumbent, whether they're a Democrat running against
(19:21):
the Republican, whoever's in power. Now the Republicans say, well,
we're a minority, we don't have any we don't have
any sway up there. We need more Republicans.
Speaker 4 (19:30):
Well you know, I mean you need a lot of
upset voters.
Speaker 6 (19:35):
Yeah, well there are a.
Speaker 2 (19:36):
Lot of upset voters, but I don't think the voters
follow through them the being upset. It's like if you
if you had a poll right now, okay, which was
a binding poll amongst voters in Massachusetts as to whether
or not John Henry should have to sell the Red Sox,
what do you think that vote would do? Thirty nine?
(19:57):
But it would have been it's an eighty twenty split. Okay.
Now they had no power over that. So they can
either get rid of John Henry or make John Henry
stay forever. But gut they have all sorts of is
they have all sorts of authority the people over the
elected officials, and they choosing not to really use it.
In my opinion, Hey, Manny, I love to call. That
(20:19):
was a really good call to start us off. Hopefully
some of the folks that want to follow along here.
Speaker 6 (20:23):
Okay, okay, thank you, yeah, thanks Manny, keep.
Speaker 2 (20:26):
Listening, Thank you much. Okay, Manny, we got the news
coming up here. Ernie, stay right with us. I'm hoping
we hear more listeners from Massachusetts particularly. We have Bill
in Pennsylvania up next. I'll get Bill, but I'd like
to hear from Massachusetts voters. Are you happy? Do you
feel that the gut that the government, not the governor,
but the government, which includes the legislature, the House of Representatives,
(20:50):
the Speaker, the Senate, President, your members of the whoever
represents you in the House of Representatives. There's one hundred
and sixty of them, there's forty state senators. Are they
doing their job for you? Are you just working your
butt off, spending more money, working harder than ever before,
paying more for everything that you are, that you need
(21:10):
to buy, and yet you either are going to choose
not to go to the polls because you vote in
your mind doesn't count and it does count, by the way,
or because no matter who you vote for, you always
vote for the loser. I'd love to hear from you.
Six one, seven, two, five, four, ten thirty six one seven,
nine three one ten thirty poster. Ernie Pacopolis is with us,
(21:33):
coming back on Nightside.
Speaker 1 (21:35):
You're on Night Side with Dan Ray. I'm w b
Z Boston's news Radio.
Speaker 2 (21:41):
Yes, I do believe and awaken one. I am a
walking billboard that proved when he really does work. We're
talking with Ernie Pacoppolis. He is the CEO of Polity
Research Consultings, been involved in polling of all sorts for
many years. Let's keep it rolling here, going to go
to a bill in Pennsylvania. Bill you were next here
(22:03):
on night Side. Welcome. How are you, sir?
Speaker 4 (22:06):
I'm doing good. Dan. Hey, I wanted to ask your
guests a couple of questions.
Speaker 2 (22:10):
Yeah, he's the guy normally does the questions, but now
you put him on the spot.
Speaker 3 (22:15):
Okay, Ernie.
Speaker 4 (22:18):
Ernie's never called me, but Ernie, I want to ask
something now. When I watch television Okay, I see. Uh,
They'll say that this is a poster, Republican poster, and
then this lady over here is a Democrat poster. And
I was wondering, Okay, so if I'm if I'm a
Republican running for office, do I look for a quote
(22:41):
unquote Republican poster or how does that work?
Speaker 7 (22:44):
Ernie?
Speaker 3 (22:45):
Yes, Typically that's that's what happens. There are there are
groups that are you know, easily identified as aligning with
one of the other parties. So if you're a candidate,
you're going to look for a firm that has experienced
dealing with issues that are important to Republicans anidate some
Republican voters. So the answer is yes, absolutely, you would
kick out how do I what?
Speaker 4 (23:05):
How do how do I how do they help me
get get elected? Upholster?
Speaker 3 (23:12):
Well, typically what they would do in addition to the
simple kind of horse race numbers of who's winning and
who's losing, they they a good survey will test a
series of messages, both messages that you may want to
use and messages that your opponents will want to use,
and see how effective those messages are among the voting population,
(23:34):
so that you know you'll see for just as an example,
you might see that you know, pocketbook issues, affordability issues
move voters more than any other issue. So if you're
a candidate, you're going to want to harp on those
issues because you know that from your survey. So a
good survey will test those kind of messages for you
and tell you which ones it's worth it's worth spending
time on, and other issues you know you don't want
(23:57):
to waste your money on because they're not that important
to voters.
Speaker 4 (24:00):
Okay, And I just want to ask you, why do
you think why do you think everybody's always underestimating Trump?
Speaker 3 (24:09):
Well, you know, if you look tonight at the candidates
that the President has endorsed in the primaries around the country,
he seems to be continuing on his winning streak of
I think Thomas Massey and Kentucky lost tonight, Bill Cassidy
lost down in Louisiana.
Speaker 2 (24:30):
So I would not.
Speaker 3 (24:31):
Underestimate President Trump's political skills in any sense.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
By the way, I also think that I also think
that Trump endorsed one of the candidates in Kentucky that's
running to replace Mitch McConnell. I think he's he's had
a good night there. Now he's a bad night, and
that Cassidy has announced that he is out on a
(24:55):
vote with the Democrats on the War Powers Resolution Act. Ok.
Speaker 3 (25:01):
Yeah, I heard that. I heard that. Yeah, a little retribution,
A little quick retribution on the.
Speaker 2 (25:05):
Part, very quick. And it's just interesting. But it does
show me there's not a lot of character and a
guy like Cassidy if he's gonna if on the one hand,
he's going to support Trump when he wins, but then
when Trump takes him out, he's going to turn and
go the other way. Boy, that's that's yeah, that's an
interesting twist. You would you know, you could say that.
You know, he was very diplomatic the other day. He said, well,
(25:28):
I had a chance to participate in democracy and it's
all well and good. Oh but I lost. Now I'm
going to vote against him. I don't know. Yeah, that's politicians, politicians.
Speaker 4 (25:38):
Yeah, you know one other question, Dan, Sure, go ahead,
built Ernie. It's just my theory, okay. But every time
I see a poll on Trump, okay, because they were
so wrong in twenty sixteen, they were so wrong in
twenty twenty, and when I see a poll on Trump,
I automatically add ten points to it or from it. Well,
(25:59):
you're right, the polling industry in general did take a
bit of a hit in twenty sixteen, and I think
the industry in general kind of retrenched and tried to
look inward and try to, you know, develop new technologies
and new methods to try to make it make our
business more accurate. And I think we have done that.
Speaker 3 (26:17):
But you know, there's also the factor that early on,
a lot of voters were hesitant to say that they
were supporting President or candidate Trump in twenty sixteen because
there was it was a controversial thing to do, frankly,
so I think a lot of the undercounting happened there.
But it's interesting that, you know, in our poll, we
(26:39):
did ask a favorability for President Trump, and we asked
it last year as well, and he was actually the
only person on our list of political personalities who went
up a little bit. In Massachusetts, he actually went up
three points from twenty eight percent to thirty one percent.
Now that's not a good rating, obviously, it's sixty six
percent unfavorable. But it's interesting that he was the only
(27:01):
one who picked.
Speaker 4 (27:02):
Upward are you using are you are you using ai
already Earnie and the pole stuff.
Speaker 3 (27:08):
No, absolutely not no. And I think that that whole
issue is yet to be resolved in terms of, you know,
the best way of introducing that. And we have not
at all involved.
Speaker 2 (27:20):
With that guy. All right, Bill, I got to let
you run because I'm running out of time here. Got
to get to my break. Okay, thank you, man, I
appreciate you, Shoe, thank you. I have a great one six, one, seven, two, five, four,
ten thirty. Got Kennon Walton. We'll get you up next,
Eric and Attleborough and some real view. This is an opportunity.
Everybody complains on pollsters, posters, posters. Well, I think the
posters do a pretty good job. I know that Dave
(27:42):
Paleologus did a great job. There was a poster in
Iowa in twenty twenty four that I when I heard
the polls out of the Des Moines Register, I said,
that's got to be crazy. She had Vice President Harris
winning Iowa by ten points. And that's what just wasn't
gonna happen. And Dave Paleologus went out and did a
quick poll and came back with very much the numbers
(28:05):
that was right on. Trump carried Islway ten points.
Speaker 3 (28:10):
Well yeah, yeah, yeah, But I was just going to say,
you know, in defense was my industry a little bit.
If you look at even the sixteen election and twenty
and twenty four, if you put together all of the
polls and average it all out, in general, the polling
was like within two or three points of the actual
popular vote numbers. Now, the electoral College went a whole
(28:31):
different thing.
Speaker 2 (28:32):
I think the polling in twenty twenty four was right.
You know, President Trump likes to talk about its only inside.
It wasn't a landslide. He got like nifty points something
percent of them right, and he won all the battleground states,
which was great. But you know, a landslide is when
Lyndon Johnson wins sixty one or sixty two percent of
the voter. When Ronald Reagan beats Walter Mondale with forty
(28:54):
nine states to one, Mondale only carries Minnesota. We'll take
a break back with any Polis. His company is Polity Research,
Polity Research Consulting. Coming back on Nightside.
Speaker 1 (29:07):
You're on night Side with Dan Ray on WBZ Boston's
news radio.
Speaker 2 (29:13):
I guess Ernie Pacoppolis from Polity Research Consulting is just
on a pretty comprehensive poll on the state of politics
in Massachusetts. People are upset, but that upset does not
appear that it's going to have much of an impact
in the elections. This this fault, well actually this summer
when you think about September one, Monday, September one, let
(29:37):
me go to Ken in Walton, Ken. You are next
on nightside. Welcome.
Speaker 7 (29:41):
Thanks Dan. Yeah, I wanted to h I wasn't going
to go here, but you just mentioned it. I mean,
Trump got forty nine point eight percent of the vote.
I think it's a little bit important only because more
people did vote against him than for him.
Speaker 2 (29:56):
You know, Well, but then you can turn around more
people people voted against Harris then voted against Trump. I mean,
I just think that, you know, when he starts talking
about the landslide and a mandate, that's just not true.
Speaker 7 (30:10):
That's my That's where I'm going with the forty nine
point eight He won an election, no question, but certainly
not a landslide.
Speaker 8 (30:18):
You know what.
Speaker 7 (30:19):
I really wanted to bring up and ask your guests
to if if there's any date on this or any
I didn't think he can in for I think it's
interesting my Congresswoman Catherine Clark has two primary opponents, and
of course Ed Markey has Steph Moulton. But it just
(30:39):
seems like at the state level, I think most of
our the Democratic can come with a running unopposed, and
I think like Andrea Campbell would be a big target
in the Democratic primary, but as far as I know,
she's running unopposed.
Speaker 2 (30:55):
So well, first of all, I guess the fact that
that the Democrats are running unopposed, that says to me
that the Democratic Party is happy with the candidates that
they have elected. That's what I would expect a candidate
would do within a party. I don't I wonder how many,
and I don't have the numbers in front of me,
(31:17):
how many of the Democrats in Congress or whatever are
going to face a Republican challenger. I mean, I oftentimes
candidates go not only unopposed in their own party, which
is fine, you know the party likes them, but then
they go unopposed them and they basically have no challenge whatsoever.
And that can happen the other way too. By the way,
(31:37):
I don't think it's good for anybody to be that
that fat, happy and content and comfortable. I think everybody
should have some should have an opponent of some sort.
Speaker 4 (31:49):
Yeah, I agree.
Speaker 7 (31:50):
I think I think most, you know, would be challengers.
Just think it's a depth ROMs that they want to lose, right,
that they that they're not loyal to the party.
Speaker 2 (32:00):
Oh, I don't know. Because up in Maine you have
this guy Platner who's running who ran basically ran Governor
Mills out of the race.
Speaker 4 (32:11):
Yeah.
Speaker 7 (32:11):
Yeah, I mean, so there's clearly examples of it. And
even though that, I mean they were both running for
you know, he wasn't running for her seat, right, Oh.
Speaker 2 (32:21):
They were competing for the right to run against Susan Collins.
She's an incumbent governor and she was forced. Remember a
year ago, she had sort of a very testing exchange
with President Trump at the White House, and I thought
she good, you know, good for her. She kind of
took him on a little bit and in his in
his home ballpark, you know, the White House, And yeah,
(32:45):
that didn't work too well for her, at least in
Maine it did. I mean, the both parties are kind
of going in different directions, and I'm not sure that's
good for the country, to be honest with you, Ken.
Speaker 7 (32:57):
Yeah, no, I agree, But I asked your guests, I mean,
is there anything you can infer? I mean, I think
this might be too orthogonal, but is there anything you
can infer from your polling that that there'll be primary candidate,
you know, against the incumbent? Or is that there's really
nothing new here.
Speaker 3 (33:17):
Yeah, we don't have anything specifically in this poll on
that issue. We do, excuse me. We did do favorability
ratings for Senator Markey and for Seth Molten uh, and
the interesting dynamic there is. Well, first of all, Senator
Markey gets a fifty one favorable to thirty unfavorable, and
Seth Moulton gets a thirty seven favorable to twenty three unfavorable.
(33:39):
But forty percent can't rate him, which is somewhat understandable
since he's a congressman from a section of Massachusetts. So
this is a statewide poll. But you know, it's not
a bad ratio between favorable and unfavorable from Bolton. It's
thirty seven percent to twenty three percent. It's in the
positive range at least, But yeah, it's it's a difficult,
(34:00):
you know, particularly in a state like It's a difficult
haul to try to challenge an incumbenty.
Speaker 2 (34:05):
I think I think that race is going to be
a lot closer than people realize. They said there's a
pull out a couple of weeks ago, which suggested that
it's a little bit closer, and I think that Marky
has numbers that show that as well. So, Uh, it's
it's it's going to be a race. I've got to
get one more in here. Ken has always appreciate your
thoughtful calls.
Speaker 7 (34:25):
Thank you.
Speaker 2 (34:27):
Let me go to Eric again. Let me go wrap
it up here with Eric and Attleborough. Eric, you're on
next with Ernie Paulopolis.
Speaker 8 (34:36):
Oh, thank you.
Speaker 2 (34:37):
Dan.
Speaker 8 (34:38):
My Uh, real concern and you know it's said many
people might see it this way, but the money that's
in politics, uh, on the specifically side, today's results in
Kentucky where Thomas Massey was unseated in the Republican priarity
against the candidate, aside from the fact of the record spending, uh,
(35:00):
you know, through super Pac money, through you know, Millionnalyison
and Paul Singer. Aside from that, the candidate wouldn't even
show up to the debates with Massey, you know. And
I just looked at you know, there's really something fundamentally
rotten with the concept of the constitutional federal republic, and
we've got to get this money out of politics. I'm
(35:22):
just curious your take on that. I don't know.
Speaker 2 (35:26):
Well, my feeling is if you get the money out
of politics, will it'll be truly become an oligarchy because
the only people who will be able to run for
office a people who can sell.
Speaker 8 (35:35):
Fund well well okay, I mean, but they are aside
from maybe an instrument being set up. And you know,
this is obviously just a ideal type of thing, you know,
an instrument that's set up to fun reasonable campaigns. And
I just like Citizens United was in my lifetime. I
(35:57):
just I've seen everything kind of I don't know, it's
like seems like something ever since Citizens United, the Supreme
Court decision which pretty much ruled that I believe on
along the lines that uh, campaign donations were considered freedom
of speech.
Speaker 2 (36:17):
Yeah.
Speaker 8 (36:17):
Yeah, and with that any entity pain taxes, I guess
it has freedom of speech.
Speaker 2 (36:25):
Again, Eric, I mean, I don't know who you're rooting
for whatever, But the problem is to me, it's pretty simple,
and that is, if if you say to people, hey,
you know you you you you cannot raise money or whatever.
Then then the only people who are going to run
for office of people who have private planes. And you're
gonna run in California, the average guy is going to
have to drive his car down the state. If I'm
(36:47):
a wealthy guy, I can fly from San Francisco to
la in an hour, and I can be all sorts
of speeches and events. That's all that's for me. The problem, well,
and the First Amendment issue, the the the case you're
referring to, went I thought the correct way in terms
of freedom.
Speaker 8 (37:03):
Of so means for one, you know, if we're gonna
have an oligarchy, I'd rather just have it be an
overt olodochy as to the current.
Speaker 2 (37:13):
Well, I guess who gets to pick the oligarchs. Hey, Eric,
I wish it called earlier, that you open up a
real good area. We'll we'll have more conversations about it.
I expect you back from you. Thank you so much,
Ernie Poppolis, thank you very much for your time tonight,
and congratulations on the poll and we'll have you. You
are now in the rotation with Paleologus and Spencer.
Speaker 3 (37:35):
Okay, I appreciate it. Thank you very much.
Speaker 2 (37:39):
Come on, with something interesting. Let us know. Okay, thanks Verdie,
appreciate it very much. We'll do all right. We come
back when we talk about Iron. What's taking the White
House so long to make a decision. The Iron has
a history basically delayed, delayed to delay. I think they're
doing it very effectively. I want to see this thing
over with like yesterday. I'd love to hear from you
(38:01):
coming back on Night Side.
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