Jason Pine: Top 8 is far from certain now

I saw Chanel Harris-Tavita afterwards and you could tell how devastated he was. Games aren't won or lost on missed kicks, Andrew Webster made that point afterwards.

But the fact remains if he'd landed that last conversion from a pretty handy position, the scores would have been level, and this game might have taken a different path.

The other kicks he missed were tricky. Kurt Capewell and Mitch Barnett both scoring out wide left, not ideal for a left-footed kicker.

The Warriors now have 19 points from 18 games. They're 4 points outside the top 8 now, with 6 games still to play this weekend, so it could be 5 points outside the top six by the end of the weekend, and just seven rounds remaining.

We're starting to get into the territory of talking about "mathematical chances" of making the top eight, which is never good.

This was a team we were so optimistic about at the start of the season. After last season, and having arguably strengthened the squad, we were talking top four.

That's not going to happen now.

And top eight is far from certain, but still achievable.

Let's look at the remaining games:

• Tigers at home
• Eels at home

Absolutely must win those two

Then,

• Dolphins away
• Sea Eagles away
• Bulldogs at home
• Sharks away

And the bye to finish.

Of those last 4 games, all against teams in the top 8 right now, you'd have to think the Warriors would need to win at least 2, and probably 3 of them

This is getting really tough now.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Weekend Sport podcast with Jason Vine
from newstalks'd be.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
I saw Chanelle Harris Tavita afterwards. The camera landed on
him and you could tell how devastated he was. I mean,
games aren't won or lost on missed kicks, but the
fact remains that if he landed that last conversion from
a very handy position, the scores would have been level
and this game might have taken a different path. Andrew

(00:35):
Webster made the point afterwards, it's not down to the goalkicking.

Speaker 3 (00:38):
We love to be one hundred percent on our goalkicking everywhere,
but there's plenty of other things to put it down
to not goalkicking. I mean, there's lots of injuries and
lots of things going on, but the goalkiing and thing
defind us.

Speaker 2 (00:48):
The other kicks that he missed were tricky caate Well
and Barnett both scoring their tries out wide left. Not
ideal for a left footed kicker. But you know, again,
if he kicks that one over and it's a handy position,
isn't it. If he nails that one, then we might
be having a different conversation today. The Warriors have nineteen

(01:09):
points from eighteen games, four points outside the top eight.
Now there are still six games to play this weekend,
so they could find themselves five points outside the top
six by the end of the weekend and just seven
rounds remaining. We're now getting into the territory which is
never good of talking about mathematical chances of making the

(01:29):
top eight. You start to get the calculator out and say, okay,
we win, when that, When that, then we could be
in buzz Rothfield. He's unequivocal. This team is not making
the eight. I tend to try and be a little
bit more optimistic, but it is going to be tough
from here. Just before we look at the remaining games,

(01:50):
this was a team we were so optimistic about at
the start of the season, after last season and having
arguably strengthened the squad, we were talking top four. That's
not going to happen now and top eight is far
from certain. Still achievable, though achievable. The remaining games Tigers
at home Eels at home over the next two weeks.

(02:11):
Absolutely must win those two against teams who are down
on their luck and down near the bottom of the table.
Must beat the Tigers at home, must beat the Eels
at home, and then the run in Dolphins away, Sea
Eagles away, Bulldogs at home, Sharks away, and then the
Bier finish. So three of the last four games away,

(02:32):
and of those last four games all against teams who
are currently in the top eight, you'd have to think
the Warriors would need to win at least two of
those and probably three of them to jump up into
the top eight. Of course, the NRL is a competition
that swings on small margins sometimes, and the fact that
the Warriors are playing teams who are currently in the

(02:55):
eight is also helpful because you get the two points
that helps your cause, and you deny those teams the
points and you get a bit of a jump perhaps
on them. It is getting really tough now, though, and
a really interesting point that Buzz Rothfield made there, and
I've thought this for a long time, that the rules

(03:16):
around being able to sign players right at the start
of a season for next season, it's just fraught with complication,
isn't it. When you know that a player is on
their way out at the end of the season, even
before the new season has started, it's a no win situation.
As soon as that player has a game which is

(03:37):
below what you'd expect. Immediately that that chatter starts. All
he knows he's going, he doesn't care. It's almost certainly
not true. I don't know a professional sportsperson who doesn't
play to one hundred percent regardless of what their future holds.
But it is a it's a rule that just brings

(03:58):
up that conversation unnecessarily. I know it's not always possible
to wait until the end of the season and that
sort of thing, but there should be some sort of
you know, window, or some sort of date where you,
you know, at the moment, I'm sure there is that
date you can start talking to players who are off
contract at the end of next season, you know, before

(04:19):
the season starts. Maybe you push that date back, you say,
you can't start talking to anybody until I don't know,
a couple of months out from the end of the season.
Otherwise these conversations are going to continue to happen.

Speaker 1 (04:31):
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