Real Estate Market Trends Part Two

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
For thirty five years, Cindy Stumpo has been a female
home builder with a passion for design, a mastery of detail,
and a commitment to her crack. With daughter Samantha Stumpo
by her side.

Speaker 2 (00:10):
I don't need my whole family on a date with me.
That's a good note. It's goddamn weird. See.

Speaker 1 (00:13):
Stumpo Development is the only second generation female construction company
in the country.

Speaker 3 (00:18):
You're crazy, You're a wacko, You're insane. I mean, it
just doesn't end together.

Speaker 1 (00:24):
Cindy and Samantha welcome guests to explore the world of construction,
real estate, development, design and more.

Speaker 3 (00:30):
Unpredictable. Every time I think I know what you want,
you switch it out. But that's what makes sure.

Speaker 1 (00:34):
Houses all your day discuss anything that happens between the
roof and the foundation.

Speaker 3 (00:38):
Nothing is off limits. You truly do care about everybody.

Speaker 1 (00:41):
She can yell at, you can scream, but when you
get her alone, she's the best person on the planet.
Cindy Stumpo is tough as nails.

Speaker 2 (00:50):
And welcome back to Tops Nails on Wbzina's radio, and
I'm here tonight with Who I.

Speaker 3 (00:56):
Am Sean Pinotian at Rate I'm a mortgage one officer.

Speaker 2 (00:59):
I think we had last week. I think you did
a two part of it. We're too part of right, Yeah, okay,
so I'm you audn't know that that this was a
two part of And if you missed last week's go
onto the podcast at iHeartMedia and you can play that.

Speaker 4 (01:11):
Okay, And I'm nick Leagris also back and thank you
for having us back here, Cindy.

Speaker 2 (01:16):
Okay, So we had questions from last week that we
didn't finish, especially one with mister Jonathan being over on
chatter Chatter Social Audio. If you don't know what that is,
go to your app store and download Chatter Social Audio
and then call me from an invitation to get you
right in. Okay, boys, the rest of your people you
have to figure it out on your own. Okay. So, bing,

(01:39):
what were you asking? Can I have that back?

Speaker 5 (01:42):
You know, put.

Speaker 2 (01:44):
Them the mic, give me on the mic the other day.

Speaker 6 (01:46):
Yeah, we had a lively discussion the other day on chatter.
You were involved in grand card on and others were involved, and.

Speaker 2 (01:55):
So you're cutting out and it's a trap.

Speaker 5 (02:01):
Banks invented single family homes to lend money.

Speaker 2 (02:05):
So what you're saying was it that it was a
trap to be trapped to a mortgage on your house? Okay,
I think we got the points. Yeah, answer that question
on that please.

Speaker 3 (02:13):
I couldn't disagree more. You know, I think, like you know,
like I was talking about last episode. You know, most
of the wealth in our country is in your real
estate holdings. Like if you look at your average net
worth of any individual United States, like seventy percent of
their wealth is from their real estate holdings. Like the
average house is appreciated over the course of the last
thirty years like three hundred and eighteen percent or something crazy, right, So,

(02:36):
like it's not a trap, it's like the easiest way
to build wealth. Obviously you need somewhere to live. But
like you know, you're paying yourself back principle every month,
which is like for savings. You're getting tax benefits like
interest right offs and property taxes. There's some with.

Speaker 2 (02:49):
That, Okay, depending on what state you're in, totally because
we not okay, no, we get ten thousand dollars off.
That's it.

Speaker 3 (02:56):
Black tax are sell your primary residence and you avoid
capital gains to.

Speaker 4 (03:02):
Station. Okay, yeah, all right, but just I want to
back up for thirty seconds. I do understand to a degree,
specifically about the product of a single family home because
I come from Europe, and where I come from, housing
is more dense because in Athens, land is scarce, so
everything is three to six story small apartment buildings, and

(03:24):
it's normal for a family to be raised in an
apartment and not in a single family home. So if
the question was the discussion that I wasn't a part of,
was year towards the fact that a single family home
is a luxury, and an American luxury. To a degree,
I might agree with that a single family home is luxury.
And then to bring your full circle to what we

(03:46):
were talking about in the market. You know, yes, when
free money was around, we had what I called luxury buyers.
I don't mean buying a Sydney Stumple luxury home.

Speaker 2 (03:55):
I mean somebody in a luxury luxury let's get the
thing there.

Speaker 4 (04:00):
But but what I mean is somebody that was in
a three bedroom home that normally would not have to
sell their housing product buying the next product just because
money was cheap. Yeah, So to a degree, yes, home
ownership a million percent, that's the that's the path to wealth.
But single family home ownership is luxury to a degree.

Speaker 2 (04:21):
I disagree, okay, and I'm gonna hear I'm gonna say
this to you guys. Okay, Jonathan, we hear you too,
but hear me out it Only if you went back
seven eight years ago and you told me stop buying
single families and ranting them ub we're going to make money.
The old timers would have laughed at you guys and said, yeah,
you go buy the single families. We're going to buy
the units. Okay, we're gonna put up one hundred units,

(04:42):
fifty units to twenty units. You're never getting rich off
of owning single family. But there's a there's a movement. Yeah, okay,
but the movement became because corporate America public companies are
in there buying up our single families. So that's even
more reason that people need to get out there and
purchase single family because you are going to be in
You're going to end up wrighting, because if things keep

(05:03):
going the way they go, you're not gonna you're not
gonna have the choice, like you can go out and
buy red new construction. Okay, I mean, but I'm going
to get backed straight here right now. Whether you're a
Republican and Democrat, and we're not getting into that on
the show. There will not be three million homes built
in the next four years, and that's a simple reason
because we do not have enough skilled labor to do it.

(05:25):
I don't care if the government gives everybody free money.
You don't have the skilled labor to go build three
million homes in four years. It's never going to happen. Okay,
I'm out there every day. I see the labor pool
that's out there only getting worse.

Speaker 3 (05:41):
Oh yeah, I mean, I agree with you one hundred percent.
Like there, the construction of homes, there's a million reason.
That's one of the reasons. The other reasons it's massively
expensive to find and buy houses and land.

Speaker 2 (05:54):
You hit the trifector. Yeah, it's called we're paying too
much for the land or the tear down here right,
because we don't have and we're not like I said,
we're not on in Arizona, when not on Texas. We're
in mass here, but we're in thirty three states. So
we talked to everybody. So you're paying too much to purchase,
you're paying too much for product, you're paying too much
for skilled labor because you need the skilled labor, right,
and now you're paying too much for interest rates that's

(06:15):
more than the trifector you can be. Builders of starting
to go out left and right because of this. Okay,
I'm sorry, did you want to say something? Okay, they're
doing here, emotions behind it.

Speaker 3 (06:25):
When people started building these projects two to three years ago,
their rates were three and four percent, correct, Now the
carrying costs on those constructions percent. And now that they've
taken out all the draws and they've maxed those things out.

Speaker 2 (06:35):
Okay, let's talk about that. Now they've taken out all
the draws. Now, here's where the problems come in. They
go look for another deal, so that deal carries the
interest on this deal. And here's where these builders get
into trouble. And then they go the third one. Oh
my god, if I've seen this movie so many times,
it's scary.

Speaker 3 (06:52):
How many unfinished products you see for sale right now?

Speaker 2 (06:55):
People for many and what's going to happen? There comes
your bad times coming ahead of you. But once you
start buying another product using that construction loan money to
pay the juice on the last one, and then you
go into the third one and now you're using the
third construction law money to pay the first one, the
second one till the bank goes hold on till you

(07:15):
move another product or two. We're not gonna lend you
any more money.

Speaker 3 (07:18):
What saved everybody's butt, though, is that inventory has been short, right,
so like there's been more demand than supply.

Speaker 2 (07:24):
And that's a lot for sales signs now sitting totally.

Speaker 3 (07:26):
Well, that's what's changing now, is that stuff starting to
stuff starting to inventory is creeping up, and all of
a sudden, the bank is starting to get a little
tighter too, starting to get nervous.

Speaker 2 (07:34):
Let me tell you something, You've better be very strong
with a bank right now. Now. Jonathan Ban does what
you do, so he's in the mortgage industry too. Bang,
you're still there.

Speaker 5 (07:45):
Absolutely, Cindy. Definitely, banks will definitely tightening up.

Speaker 2 (07:48):
Okay, hold on, I'm gonna I'm gonna pass this over
to you so you guys can hear each other on speaker.

Speaker 5 (07:53):
Go ahead, man, they'll definitely tightening up now.

Speaker 6 (07:59):
And there have been a lot more strenching with the money,
so that that holds the problem. But there is some
more inventory, but there's still there's.

Speaker 5 (08:07):
Still a demand out there.

Speaker 6 (08:08):
I mean, we are still six and a half seven
million homes short, and so yeah, there's definitely a problem.
But once again, I just want to pivot back because
it's my fault with my WiFi. But I you know,
I just think that the American dream home ownership, you
cannot start. You cannot begin generational wealth without home ownership.

Speaker 2 (08:31):
You know, and agreed, agreed o.

Speaker 5 (08:34):
People to abandon.

Speaker 6 (08:36):
You tell people to abandon that dream, especially people that
are financially literate, you know, because most Americans don't have
the literacy, the financial literacy that that we should have.
But you have someone prominence telling people that it's a
trap and that they shouldn't do it. I think that
that's pretty much almost malpracticed and that and that's what
I was speaking to because home ownership, Yeah, you know,

(08:59):
you when you're rinking, you still have the same most
of fame calls that you're gonna have u as home ownership.
You're gonna have your cable bill, you're electric order, and
things of that nature.

Speaker 2 (09:09):
You know, if you're missing the point, you're missing the
point again. And I'm gonna say it again, no you're not.
If this breaks and that breaks it's not your responsibility
when you're rankeding. But hold that thought. We're going to break.
I'm sitting stumbling. You listen to Toughest Nails on w
BZ News radioly right.

Speaker 7 (09:23):
Back, sponsored by floor In Decor, National Lumber and Village Bank.

Speaker 2 (09:31):
Running down the Road the WAD. I got seven women
on my the Water to the Wall and welcome back
to Toughest Nails on WZ News Radio. And I'm Sitny
Stumpo Toughest Nails. So we've got that one, didn't we Yeah,
Toughest Nails. That's the name of my show. Yeah, Okay,
go ahead, guys.

Speaker 3 (09:50):
I'm shot from Rate and nick Leagris Milligris.

Speaker 2 (09:54):
Okay, and we got bang online with us. Go ahead, Jonathan, Cindy,
I understand.

Speaker 6 (10:00):
You're right, but there's home warranty. You need a warranty
from your utility company that.

Speaker 5 (10:04):
Will allow you.

Speaker 2 (10:04):
Now the GAFF program, Now, the GAFF program waste of money.
Don't do it. Let me tell you something. If it
was worth doing, I'd have the company. I'd own it, Okay,
maintaining my own platinum, gold and silver.

Speaker 3 (10:19):
Yeah, I mean what Cindy's saying is right, Like you know,
there's massive responsibility when you home. And by the way,
I'm one of those people that believe that I'm advising
my clients, coaching my clients up into getting in the
housing market and figuring it out right, Like it's not easy,
but there's a lot of different avenues and things you
got to do. But she's one hundred percent right, like
this now becomes yours. Those problems become real problems. You know,

(10:39):
if something breaks, it's expensive, more expensive than ever to
fix anything.

Speaker 2 (10:43):
You find and you're an endewser, go find the plumber
right now.

Speaker 3 (10:46):
Yeah, it's crazy. Okay, it's not hundreds of dollars. It's
generally thousands of dollars and sometimes ten thousands of dollars.
So you know you have to when you enter this league.
Now you have to be able to plan for all
those things, and you have to have the resources to
be able to handle it. I also don't think that
you scare you off because like you're always going to
come up with the reasons as to why you shouldn't
do something. I just think it takes a little bit
more preparing, a little bit more knowledge, a little bit more.

(11:08):
You need a tight circle around you. People that can
advise you and coach you into this stuff.

Speaker 2 (11:12):
And stop waving home inspections crazy. Stop doing that. At
least you know what you're walking into when you're purchasing something.
Sammy did not waive one home inspection. She wouldn't do
it to a client's do all the craziness. She wudn't do it,
because you don't know what you're buying.

Speaker 3 (11:30):
Yeah, I mean we saw a lot of crazy stuff, especially,
I mean even today. I mean, you know, obviously I
do business all around the country, right, Generally the markets
that I work in are up and down the coasts,
and so they're all hot markets, right, But people are
you know, I mean, they had to do what they
had to do to get their offers accepted. And I'm
talking to a lot of clients afterwards that find out
things that, you know, when they take ownership of these
houses that they weren't planning for because you know, most

(11:50):
of the deals didn't have inspections.

Speaker 4 (11:52):
And that's also a little unique to Mass two sets,
because we are a buyer beware state or a seller.

Speaker 2 (11:57):
Doesn't look at all the lawsuits other.

Speaker 4 (12:00):
Parts of the country. A seller has to disclose, a
seller has to do a mandatory seller disclosure, and there
is something else at least that somebody can rely upon
talking to the so to bring this kind of full
circle to the other parts of the country like Massachusetts.
As liberal as we are in many regards, one of
the things that's a little crazy is that a seller
has no affirmative duty to raise their hands and tell

(12:22):
a buyer anything other than whether or not they know
about the presence of lead based paint in the home
that's prior to nineteen seventy eight. They can't lie, but
they have no duty whatsoever.

Speaker 2 (12:33):
But they do, they do. And yet how you find out, oh,
you got a water leak, No we didn't, then we
research it. Well, how come you pay from your insurance company?

Speaker 4 (12:41):
And just to stick on that right now, Another barrier
for a lot of these buyers is how difficult it
is to get homeowner's insurance.

Speaker 3 (12:49):
Well, if they get it, how expensive these insurance companies
are now colluding with each other, and they're labeling properties
as high risk and consumers.

Speaker 4 (12:58):
If you have bad credit, you're gonna have a harder
time getting good homeowners insurance, even if you can get
a mortgage.

Speaker 3 (13:05):
And to that same point, if that home had a
prior claim.

Speaker 2 (13:09):
By the way, guys, this is across the country. This
is not just the state.

Speaker 4 (13:12):
Okay, just here, And if if that home had a
claim on it previously.

Speaker 2 (13:18):
It's gonna be like cafects.

Speaker 4 (13:19):
You got it. And one of the things that people
don't realize what insurance claims are. Insurance is a contract,
which means you put in a claim because you had
a leak from a toilet and they give you money
to replace all the floors. That doesn't mean you have
to replace all the floors.

Speaker 2 (13:33):
And most won't and most won't and they'll just use
they'll they won't even change the blue board of whatever
they're using dirt. We use blueboard and plaster, but some
say they use tape and seam right, and they won't,
and they'll they'll just kill it with some kills.

Speaker 4 (13:48):
You got it, Okay, take their money, you.

Speaker 2 (13:49):
Paint it, take the money, keep it and you got
mold grown back.

Speaker 4 (13:52):
Put that house in the market for sale and make
it someone else's problem.

Speaker 2 (13:56):
And it'll be your problem and they don't have to
say it at all. So I hope you're understanding what
we're talking about right now. Do you have any other
questions on Chatter, Jonathan, do you have any other questions
on Shadow?

Speaker 5 (14:09):
I don't see anyone with the hands Rob, but Sindy Yaga.
If I may, guys chatter social app.

Speaker 2 (14:15):
Let me let me, let me go plug yourself in.
Go ahead, see I.

Speaker 5 (14:20):
Said, I said.

Speaker 6 (14:22):
Chatter Social is app where you can actually communicate and
just have these kind of discussions with the people all
over the world. It's a great app. As chattlesocial dot
io downloaded. We speak to people like Cindy Stumpo grand
Cardon and many others on a nightly basis. So if
you can get it, if you can get over here,
please get over here.

Speaker 2 (14:42):
So well, I'll bring all my boys up and we
all come in. We're gonna come right in today. We're
going to ride up on all you guys. Okay, we're
gonna put you guys to sleep over there. But okay,
let's go. Let's go to a couple of other questions
that we have here. Okay, not you guys have no questions.
So we're going to go back into a schedule the
program of what I want to ask you? Where do

(15:02):
you think the market's going in the next six months
to year?

Speaker 3 (15:05):
So I mean I think the next six months of
the year is going to get fueled by lower interest rates.
You know, the Fed came out, uh jerme. Powell came
out a couple of weeks ago and said the time
is now, directions clear, we're going to start cutting rates.
So I think we're going to see three rate cuts
this year, starting next week.

Speaker 2 (15:20):
I think next week point to five.

Speaker 3 (15:22):
I think point to five. I'm hoping for a half.
I think we need a half you know, I think
I think.

Speaker 2 (15:26):
We always caping. If you're going to join in the conversation,
do me a favor. Hold him on the mic, hold
that phone on the mic. Good, just you know, no, no
where he talks, what's that You don't have to even
bring him up, Just so no, you hold him on
that Mike's going so he can he can give right,
he'll be able to hear, go ahead, they can converisate,
go ahead, bing what'd you just say.

Speaker 5 (15:48):
I think it's definitely gonna be a half point, I
mean point.

Speaker 3 (15:51):
You know, look, man, they wait too long, they.

Speaker 5 (15:52):
Wait too long to do this.

Speaker 3 (15:54):
They cut they not to a half point, you know,
I might I hope it's a half point. I think
it's going to be a quarter percent because the Fed's
been pretty transparent. They've been pretty you know, Jerme Powell
and his crew have been you know, hanging back, and
they so they're lead. They're signaling a quarter percent rate cut.
If they did a half percent rate cut, that means
they're gonna be way they're they're way more afraid of
the labor market weakness than we've seen recently. They seem

(16:16):
to have inflation under control. Labor markets will be weak.

Speaker 2 (16:19):
We are, okay, let's talk about that, guys. They have
inflation under control. Besides the lumber Yeah, we're in my industry.
Has numbers dropped? Concrete just went up again two weeks ago.

Speaker 3 (16:30):
So yeah, I mean, look, I don't think things are
going to get cheaper, right They're everything in this room
right now, everything.

Speaker 2 (16:35):
Look at all the look at the keyboards, look at
everything that's going on in the studio. Let's say going
to come in here and redo the soundproofing. Let's say
going to come in here and redo anything. It's thirty
five to forty percent more than twenty nineteen. Couldn't numbers
are still running there?

Speaker 3 (16:48):
Yeah, so what you know, the growth rate of inflation
is what they're measuring. So it was up to like
ten percent a year before. Now it's down to like,
you know, just under three percent. They're trying to get
us down to two. So anyways, if you believe them,
if you believe them right, it's you.

Speaker 2 (17:02):
Know, I'm not a conspiracy press.

Speaker 3 (17:03):
Look, the thing I've learned over the course of the
last year is like, I'm blown away by how wrong
they've been with the numbers and how misleading it's been,
especially in the labor markets. But let's just say they
cut three times this year. They're signaling four to six
rate cuts next year, so you could see every time
it doesn't matter. And Cindy, you've been doing this longer
than I have. You've said that a couple of times

(17:23):
over the last couple of weeks. However, every time.

Speaker 2 (17:26):
Rates come down, because getting old is not fun, and
unless it's like sticking up everybody's butt of more knowledge, every.

Speaker 3 (17:32):
Time rates come down with it, you get a huge inflection,
like huge infusion of buyers because people get excited rates
come down. It means more buying power, more affordability, bigger budgets,
bigger reach, and that demand is only going to get increased.
Like every time rates come down by one percent, about
five million more people get into the housing market, right,
so demand just goes through the roof. You're going to

(17:54):
see you've got about six million people that can refinance
the mortgages they took out over the course last few years.
So I think the housing market it's going to be
really strong over the course of the next two years,
personally just because you've got you've got lower rates, more money.

Speaker 2 (18:05):
Okay, so let's talk about that for a minute. Yeah,
you see a slow down in Florida already in certain
areas of Florida. Let's talk about that, right, people understand Florida.
Maybe most people don't understand Massachusetts. Whe people go to Florida,
they vacation blah blah blah. Yeah, there's many areas of Florida, correct,
and products not selling.

Speaker 3 (18:22):
Mostly condos though that's a combination of a couple of
things in my opinion.

Speaker 2 (18:25):
Go ahead.

Speaker 4 (18:26):
We're also seeing it in California as well. Right in
certain parts of California.

Speaker 2 (18:29):
We want to go to California.

Speaker 4 (18:30):
Right now, people are fleeing San Francisco, correct, I mean
the tech world is fleeing from San Francisco from Miami
as crazy as that is the problem with Florida is
Florida does not really have its own core industry and
core base besides tourism hospitality. They have hospitality in tourism.
So what happens the Cindy's of the world. They're successful

(18:51):
thirty year careers from up here and from Philadelphia and
from Illinois and other places. Florida's a playground. Well, that
playground gets impacted because that's a luxury item, and luxury
items get impacted.

Speaker 2 (19:02):
Florida is the playground for the rich. Now you do
know that, right?

Speaker 4 (19:05):
Oh yeah, that's it.

Speaker 2 (19:06):
All the locals in that sunny Owl's Hollywood Hallendale, North
Miami Beach area have been pushed out del Rey Boca.
They're all going, They're all they can't afford the locals
can't afford to be there. So that that that bothers me.

Speaker 4 (19:21):
But the government is trying to do some things. They're
trying to bring tech, they're trying to bring industry because
Florida does have so many other things like no state
income tax, good weather.

Speaker 2 (19:31):
Death taxes, all that thought. I'm getting the clock in
my face. This is city stumble. You listen to the
toughest nails on Busy Its Radio ten thirty will be.

Speaker 7 (19:38):
Right back, sponsored by Pillow Windows of Boston, Next Day
Molding and Kennedy Carpet.

Speaker 5 (19:54):
Spots, Flo.

Speaker 2 (20:01):
And welcome back to Tomb of Nails on WBC News
Radio ten thirty. We're here with.

Speaker 3 (20:05):
Sean Bnocci in that rate, I'm a residential mortgagean officer, and.

Speaker 4 (20:08):
I'm gonna throw around the new acronym attorney nickolgris not
just Nick Legris here, so the staff and the listeners
know that that your attorney.

Speaker 2 (20:17):
Why does they give you more credit?

Speaker 8 (20:18):
No?

Speaker 4 (20:19):
Just are you charge more money when they call me?

Speaker 2 (20:20):
Oh okay, I like that. And then we have my
beautiful future Donald in the studio Angelina, that's Angelly, let's
Chad's go from Okay, that's from playing with all the
audio in John, Where do you stand what we're talking
about right now? Bing bing bong, you're up there.

Speaker 6 (20:39):
I'm definitely here, Cindy, Like I said, I told you
a halfpoint. You know, I understand what's going on down
to Florida. That's happening any and everywhere because as we
get more technology and we're able to develop it, I
mean development technology has grown and they're even build a
lot more. I mean, yeah, pushing people out. I mean
that the land's valuable down there, closer you are to

(21:01):
the coast and that climate definitely. I mean Florida used
to be the cheaper alternative to California.

Speaker 5 (21:07):
Now Florida's again.

Speaker 2 (21:08):
In Florida was where we all went to right before
we go to the nursing home and then before we die. Okay,
let's call who it is.

Speaker 1 (21:14):
Right.

Speaker 2 (21:15):
Look at Massachusetts, John, listen to this. Massachusetts has lost
over five one hundred and fifty million dollars because of
people now leaving for Massachusetts because just that four percent
millionare tax hike going down to Florida. Imagine how stupid
that was. Right, you lost five hundred and something million

(21:37):
dollars in tax right.

Speaker 3 (21:37):
Believe in California and New York Massachusetts. Yep, yeah, they're
going to Florida. They're going to.

Speaker 2 (21:42):
Touch the demand is down in Florida. Yeah, and US Northeast.
Northeast people, we don't want to be at West. We
want to be between Miami North, Miami, Hollywood all the
way down in Naples. You know, we want to be
on the coast. We don't want to be West. We
don't want to be in and we don't want to
be in Tampa. That's not the game we like to
play in Boston. We want to be right with the

(22:03):
actionists totally, no matter what age.

Speaker 3 (22:07):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (22:07):
So, John, would you advise to your clients right now,
if they were to buy anywhere, just tell them buying
their own hometowns and say, I have a thing that
you buy where you know, stop buying where you don't
know your first investment. Buy in your own backyard so

(22:28):
you know what you're doing and knowing how to play
the game. John, your opinion, and I agree with that one.

Speaker 6 (22:35):
The problem with that is if you're in California, the
average single family right now is bout eight hundred thousand dollars,
you know, so you know it's going to be tough
to buy there. If you're in one of those markets
in the Northeast. When you look at New York, Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts,
you look at those areas, I mean, it's it's pretty
tough to find a deal. I mean, fortunately, we're close

(22:57):
to Pennsylvania. They have the Poconos and things that need
where you can still get a relatively cheap deal in
those areas, yea.

Speaker 2 (23:04):
And what do you do when you get there? What
do you do to make a living in the Poconos?
Tell me what are you doing? Yeah?

Speaker 5 (23:12):
You know does what technology kicks in?

Speaker 3 (23:14):
All right?

Speaker 6 (23:15):
You can work from anywhere, now, Cindy, And that's the
beauty of you know what COVID did.

Speaker 2 (23:20):
Okay, let me hold Let me hold you there. I
can't work from anywhere. We got a lawyer that's going
to show up to court right and see a judge.
You don't get to zoom at all anywhere? Okay, but
you did, and you do how old you know for
three fourty three you're not going in front of judge
at all?

Speaker 4 (23:36):
You know the trans actual lawyer I pushed paper.

Speaker 2 (23:39):
From Okay, Well you can do that from anywhere.

Speaker 4 (23:42):
Good point.

Speaker 2 (23:43):
And you can run your mortgages from anywhere.

Speaker 3 (23:44):
I can work from anywhere. But you know who doesn't
want there people working from anywhere anymore? All these companies
that have built out these huge corporate headquarters and they're
pulling everybody back in little by.

Speaker 2 (23:52):
Little as they should. Yeah, as they should.

Speaker 3 (23:55):
You know, I don't believe anything.

Speaker 2 (23:56):
You're not going to the office. I think you performed
better in the office. I think you need to be
in the environment. But America got lazy after COVID.

Speaker 3 (24:04):
Yeah, and you know that was you know, I had
a lot of clients move all over the country thinking
they could make Massachusetts or New York money and live
somewhere else. And all of a sudden, now it's like
slowly like their employers like, sorry, you got to come back.

Speaker 2 (24:15):
You know how about the guys that are making here's
the best one. You're making all your money a Mass,
but you're claiming Florida residency. Sorry, buddy, you got to
play pay Mass taxes. You don't get to avoid that
unless you got some type of management company you set
yourself up. That's another one. If your mind's coming out
of mass you're taken six months in a day in Florida,
but you're making a living a Mass. You're going to
pay mass taxes here.

Speaker 3 (24:35):
You know what? You know what the big I agree
with you. You know what the big problem down in
Florida right now is those those thirty and forty year
old condo buildings. You know, they're getting crushed right now
with special assessments. They're passing all these laws down there
where they're.

Speaker 2 (24:46):
Well, yeah, thee yeah, need to.

Speaker 3 (24:49):
You know, that building collapsed in twenty surfside collapse. And
now they've changed all the laws down there in terms
of structural integrity of these buildings. Now, all of a sudden,
you got somebody buying a three hundred thousand dollars four
hundred thousand dollar condo and they get hit with one
hundred and eighty thousand dollars special assessment. What's that place worth?
Who wants to take on that assessment?

Speaker 2 (25:05):
Nobody?

Speaker 3 (25:06):
And then then it drops And that's what's happening. You know,
you're seeing the newer construction condo market down there actually
perform well.

Speaker 2 (25:12):
Good, go look at the Equilina, Go look at the
Amorni building, Look at the Porsche building. They're flying out.

Speaker 3 (25:17):
Yeah, but the stuff that's thirty forty years old sitting though.
There's there's inventory piling up in these places because they're
all worried about the special assessments they either have already
found out about or that are coming and they're going
to devastate their prices over there. So it's it's a
tale of you know, Florida is interesting because it's like
two different markets, Like the stuff on the water, the
ultra eluxury killing it. But then the stuff that's like inland,
the stuff that's like the older buildings, like they're not

(25:38):
doing so well.

Speaker 2 (25:39):
Correct. Yeah, You'll see a sixty million dollar home fly
off the market totally, and an eighteen million dollars sit there,
and a fifteen million dollars fifteen million, and then something
comes on the market for fortyen flies So there is
a price point down there. I noticed last winter that
was a slowdown. It was between that ten and fifteen
like speculation.

Speaker 3 (25:58):
Those are such huge numbers too, is I mean no, because.

Speaker 2 (26:01):
That's about no down well, first of all up here, Yeah,
there's no one else playing in my sand box. Correct
about it on speculation. But now I take the same
product I do and go into the forty million down there. Yeah,
so you see the difference. Yeah, And I'm going to
make the same money with them here there. But me personally,
if I had the opportunity to go make my life

(26:22):
down there, but I don't want to start all over again.
I'm going to end my career in Massachusetts and that's
how it's going to be, and I'm going to go
in joy or whatever life I got left. John any O,
the questions on shadow.

Speaker 3 (26:32):
Are you actually are you? Are you ever going to
stop working?

Speaker 2 (26:34):
No?

Speaker 3 (26:34):
Okay, when I die, I thought I just wanted to
do the class.

Speaker 2 (26:36):
When I die, Okay, got it. When I die, when
I don't have two arms, two legs, I can't breathe anymore.

Speaker 8 (26:41):
Someone asked, how do functuations and home loan interest rates
impact monthly mortgage payments for buyers?

Speaker 3 (26:47):
Yeah, great questions. So like, all right, somebody, uh, last year,
at this time, like I said, rates are about eight percent.
Today they are about six percent. That means our clients have,
like you know, anywhere from depending on the price points,
anywhere from like seventy to one hundred and fifty thousand
dollars more in buying power. Right, So, like when rates
come down, people's budgets increase, they get more buying power,

(27:08):
there's excitement, or they can just save more money. But
like we're not seeing we're not seeing a lot or
that truly what's happening is the home prices go up.
It just allows them to kind of stay in the
game and keep up with the market.

Speaker 2 (27:19):
Let's go back to these rates, these rate cuts, right, Yeah,
so Jonathan is thinking point five zero, I'm thinking point
twenty five, Jonathan, I've told you that before. Now they
take a long time to knock them down. We get
a problem if they knock these rates down to what
we give it the number again.

Speaker 3 (27:38):
So I think the Fed's going to cut rates in
almost every single meeting the rest of this year and
into next year.

Speaker 2 (27:42):
That'll be four meetings, three meetings.

Speaker 3 (27:44):
Left this year because they don't have one in October.
They go September, November, December, and then they'll have I
think it's eight meetings next year.

Speaker 2 (27:51):
So you think every meeting from now till next year
they'll cut them down.

Speaker 3 (27:55):
I think they're going to cut I think they raised.

Speaker 2 (27:56):
So we had how many hikes that we want to We.

Speaker 3 (27:58):
Had eleven hikes, right, So the FED funds rate sits
somewhere between like five and a quarter to five and
a half today. I think they're going to take it
down to three and that still kind of keeps the
economy moving, but it's it's still a little bit restrictive.
So I think the thirty year fixed rate lands in
like the like the and that's what that's what your
average home potential home buyer consumer talks about. Where's the

(28:18):
average thirty or fixed rate. I think it lands somewhere
in the low fives, like five and a quarter, five
and a half. Next year. If we go into a recession,
which a lot of people think is coming, we could
see the force, you know, and that that creates.

Speaker 5 (28:28):
You know.

Speaker 3 (28:28):
So I don't think I think there is going to
be a recession. I don't think the housing market's going
to participate. And I think the housing market will stay
strong through it like it.

Speaker 2 (28:35):
Hits works what the stock market.

Speaker 3 (28:38):
The stock market will pull back for sure. That's where
you're gonna see it. You're going to see consumers.

Speaker 2 (28:42):
Guess what with seeing the real estate market pulled back
before the stock market this time, that's unheard of. We've
always had a market crash, in a real estate market
crash coming year afterwards, we've seen the market staying strong
with the Nasdaq, it's crazy every and by the way,
they beat out real estate guys every year, right, they
performed better than real estate guys all day long. But

(29:05):
when you look at this way, I think it's going
to be the real estate market. I think the real
estate market is slowing down. Sales just lo listen, I
don't want to I don't want to slow down. This
is my business, right. I don't want to slow down.
My kids are in the lower end stuff than I am.
I don't want to see any slow down. But I
gotta be realistic here, right, And when you're a spect builder,

(29:25):
you're putting here. I hate to say it, but we
cut the balls on the table. We got the money
in the streets, so we're taken all the risks, all
the shots out here, and the stresses are building them.
Think about it. We're not custom builders, right. We'll take
on a couple of year because they are either clients,
the client's kids, or whatever. But we are known to
high ultra high end speculation. So all the stresses on

(29:47):
my back for thirty eight years. Jesus Christ, how am
I still standing?

Speaker 3 (29:51):
Stress?

Speaker 4 (29:53):
Your stress?

Speaker 1 (29:54):
Okay?

Speaker 2 (29:55):
How I've done? That's crazy, right? Think about a young
girl twenty three years old going impressive. Yeah, I don't
know what's super impressive. I just think I was young
and dumb. I were going off to break and would
be right back. I'm Sidney Stump toff his nails on
WBZ News Radio ten thirty, will be right.

Speaker 7 (30:09):
Back, sponsored by new Brook Realty Group, Boston. Would smaller
Insurance World Auto Body and Tasca Drive Auto Body.

Speaker 9 (30:19):
One of these, one of these crazy.

Speaker 2 (30:28):
And welcome back to Toughest Nails on WBZ News Radio
ten thirty. Now I'm Sydney Stumpo, and we're here with
what's your name again?

Speaker 8 (30:35):
Lena Grillo?

Speaker 2 (30:35):
You sure, yes, you know you're really pretty.

Speaker 8 (30:38):
Future Lena Stumpo.

Speaker 2 (30:39):
Okay, wow, wow, Okay, there we go.

Speaker 3 (30:42):
I am shocked, but I.

Speaker 2 (30:43):
Want you to stop checking out my future Donald. Okay,
she is really pretty. You gotta give it that he
likes men. Yeah, okay, we're better than that.

Speaker 3 (30:51):
Okay, good every three. I got a beautiful wife and
three three beautiful little girl.

Speaker 4 (30:55):
There we go, makings down here, not a future Stumpo.

Speaker 3 (30:59):
Okay, and I am shot pinocean at rate.

Speaker 2 (31:02):
Wait, we forgot about your nigh right, Nick? You married?

Speaker 4 (31:05):
I am?

Speaker 2 (31:05):
How many kids too? How old?

Speaker 4 (31:08):
Seventeen and thirteen?

Speaker 2 (31:09):
Okay, good luck to the thirteen and you your kids are?

Speaker 3 (31:13):
I got it. I got three daughters, twelve, nine and six.

Speaker 2 (31:16):
You guys started really late.

Speaker 4 (31:18):
I started young.

Speaker 2 (31:19):
How young?

Speaker 4 (31:20):
I was twenty five when I had my first born?

Speaker 2 (31:22):
Yeah I was twenty three.

Speaker 3 (31:23):
I was thirty two.

Speaker 2 (31:24):
But you're Greek yeah, you Greeks to it young thirty two.
You're thirty two. Yeah, you old fought.

Speaker 3 (31:31):
I feel like I feel like I'm young.

Speaker 4 (31:32):
I can hang, you can hang.

Speaker 3 (31:34):
I'm not afraid.

Speaker 2 (31:35):
Okay, I always wanted to be a young one. Stupid
me for sh Take you your kids, and you take
care of your parents, and you're taking care of your
grand shouldern that are coming down the road. When is
the time for me? It's time for me right now?
Go ahead, Bing, you had a question, you want to
stand subject? Hold that up there, and yeah, I was.

Speaker 6 (31:54):
Listening to you and you guys are saying you're expecting
a quarter. You know, I'm definitely thinking it's gonna be
more than a half because they waited way too long,
and you know, and you I thought about pulling back
when I saw our inflation reports come out lately and
seeing that, you know, it's the lowest.

Speaker 5 (32:11):
Since twenty twenty one. But you know, I think they
waited too long. And it's an election year.

Speaker 6 (32:15):
It's an election year, and they're not gonna have a
FED meeting in October. Okay, I think they're gonna go ahead.
They're gonna pull the trigger and they're gonna do it.

Speaker 5 (32:22):
Half a point. That's where the end of.

Speaker 2 (32:25):
This month makes sense, at the end of this.

Speaker 3 (32:27):
Morning, September. Yeah, yeah, yeah, so so John. You know, look,
the last three times the FED has started to cut cycle,
they've actually started with a half point. I hope they
do a half point. I just think this FED has
been so conservative.

Speaker 8 (32:39):
Uh.

Speaker 3 (32:39):
And I think that because it's an election coming up.
I think because they don't want to appear political. I
think they're gonna start with a quarter and they've been
signaling a quarter. So I hope it's a half. I
hope you're and I do agree that they waited too
long to start cutting, and they have historically started with
a half point. So I hope you're right that it
is going to be half, but I think it's gonna
be a quarter. And you know, for everybody listening out there,

(33:02):
you know, the market's already priced in. Like if you're
going out and getting a mortgage, uh, the market is
priced in three rate cuts already. So the rates you're
getting today, if you're getting your standard thirty year fixed
rate mortgage is already pricing in three rate cuts now.
If you're a builder, if you if you're getting adjusted
rate mortgage, once they start. If you've got a home
aqui line of credit, if you get you know, those
will start actually coming down immediately.

Speaker 2 (33:23):
Let's make something clear right now, construction loan money, unless
you're very very strong with a lot of money in
the bank, these guys are still paying nine percent.

Speaker 3 (33:31):
Yeah, because those are all adjustable. Those will start coming
down once the Fed starts.

Speaker 2 (33:35):
Uh correct in the race. Yeah, correct, But they're not
going to adjust enough right.

Speaker 4 (33:38):
No.

Speaker 2 (33:39):
No, a lot of guys got hurt when they went
from three to nine and four to nine.

Speaker 3 (33:43):
I think they'll be the.

Speaker 2 (33:44):
Hard money guys that will be in the in the
in the studio later. They just get anything they want,
right because you need them and they're paying points and whatever.
So where do you think, so, John, if thirty years
start to come down to that number, people are going
to stop pulling ms again. Will the arms be you know, I.

Speaker 3 (34:02):
Think the adjusted rate mortgages are going to come down
into like the high force. So like right now, the
adjustable rate mortgage hold on.

Speaker 2 (34:09):
If we get the arms back into the force. Now,
I'm asking you and being your opinion. You might have
a different opinion and you want to I would go
for the four and I bet that the rate's still
going to come down more.

Speaker 3 (34:21):
They're not there yet. I think that the adjusted rate
mortgage will start to cut down on the adjust rate
right now still in like the high fives. Okay, yeah,
so there's not a big difference between the fixed rates
and adjustables right now, so's never been smaller. So we're
seeing a lot more demand on the fixed rate mortgages. However,
I think not, however not. I think when the FED
starts to cut you're going to see the adjust rate

(34:42):
mortgage market open up and be more like it like
back in the day when we used to get a mortgage.
You know, if if you've got to fixed rate it,
say six percent, you'd be able to get adjust rate
a like five percent. Now it's like a quarter percent different.
So that's not worth it, you know, it's not worth
taking all the rest. So but I do think that
market's going to come back, and I think you're going
to see people jump into it because you know, you know,
I think the rate mark it's going to be pretty

(35:02):
good for a couple of years, assuming inflation doesn't get
out of control again. You know, there's a lot of
speculation that like, hey, if inflation starts to tick back
up and things start to get more expensive. As money
gets cheaper and people start spending again, that could see
that could be the one thing that slows down rates
coming out fast.

Speaker 6 (35:18):
In your opinion, First of all, you're going to take
that fix. I mean, because the difference is spread is
not too big. A lot of people got hurt playing
that game. A lot of people that had funds, they
took the just well it's taking a fix because.

Speaker 5 (35:33):
They wanted to make more money, and in the end
it hurt them hard. I mean when when when the rates.

Speaker 6 (35:37):
Started going up, a lot of people funds are like
in trouble as a result of that. So you know,
I definitely think you should take the fix right now.
And he's right, I mean, you're not seeing too big
of a spread.

Speaker 5 (35:50):
Uh.

Speaker 6 (35:51):
Those those arms used to be they you see at
least a point three quarters of a point to a point.

Speaker 5 (35:56):
You're not seeing that now.

Speaker 2 (35:57):
And but I think what But my question was when
you do see them again? When you do not right
the moment, when you do, what's the average consumer you
think going to go back to the arm or stay
with the thirty year?

Speaker 5 (36:12):
They'll go with the fixed rate they'll if you're smart, thing,
you're gonna tell you why.

Speaker 6 (36:18):
And the mortgage industry, bad news is good news, and
we certainly don't want bad news. The only way to
race going to go around way anywhere, uh, is that
we have a whole bunch of bad news. We had COVID,
we had nine to eleven, We had Iraq, we had Afghanistan.
We had so much bad news just hitting.

Speaker 5 (36:33):
Us over and over and over again.

Speaker 6 (36:36):
And so that's how we got to those historical lows
because we had a whole bunch of litmea bad news.
And so if you if you think, if someone's hoping
that we're gonna get back in the threes, you're betting
against the US economy, you're betting against us. You're betting
for some bad news. That's what's going on here. So
remember that, folks, bad news is good news when you're
getting mortgages.

Speaker 5 (36:54):
So you don't want your mortgage race to be too low.

Speaker 2 (36:56):
I told you that's why I want a Democrat in office,
even though I'm not. People don't believe this, but we
make more money with a Democrat. People don't believe me
when I say that, but we do.

Speaker 3 (37:05):
But OK, we're one of the only countries in the
world where you can get a thirty year fixed rate mortgage.

Speaker 2 (37:10):
Let's look at Canada.

Speaker 3 (37:10):
Yea, everywhere else is just right mortgages.

Speaker 2 (37:12):
You know, Canadians they can't, they can't anything that's so
on fear to them.

Speaker 3 (37:17):
Yeah, it's just the way it is, you know. But
you know they're not I don't know if they're complaining
because I don't think they realize it.

Speaker 2 (37:21):
However, Yeah, I jump into a lot of Twitter Canadian rooms.
Yeah we are not Toronto, not Montreal. I tend to
jump into those Canadian building rooms that they're builders, developers. Oh,
crying like a bunch of babies up there.

Speaker 3 (37:33):
So the market has changed.

Speaker 2 (37:35):
But then I speak to people in Toronto Montreal and
they're booming. So I don't know. There's always cry babies
on markets, right, I mean, I'll take on market. I'll
take on market all day long.

Speaker 4 (37:49):
Yeah, even though we're a tiny little segment of the market.

Speaker 2 (37:51):
Imagine, imagine we're.

Speaker 4 (37:53):
Smaller than Metro Houston. Ok, just Metro Houston. It's bigger
than the entire masters.

Speaker 3 (37:58):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (37:58):
People always say to me, if I was gonna best
my money, where do I go Sindy, Massachusetts. Totally come
to Massachusetts. Okay, as as the gibs say, please come
to mess we should play that song. But whatever, Okay,
go ahead. Any other questions.

Speaker 8 (38:12):
What about the ones that are just starting.

Speaker 2 (38:15):
Out like you?

Speaker 8 (38:17):
Yeah, that's like if I want to invest in property,
pull the mic up and you get what I What
would you suggest as in starting.

Speaker 2 (38:27):
Okay, so let me put your your sister and brother small,
your child's brother. What would you tell.

Speaker 8 (38:32):
Rental properties, tourist properties out in Florida? Would you start
out that way or would you suggest not starting out
that way?

Speaker 3 (38:40):
I would start up like I would start off with
buying a place that you're going to live in, right,
like the place that you can like move into, do
some sweat equity, you know, obviously then you don't also
have two payments, like you're making a mortgage payment instead
of a rent payment, and you can just kind of
attack it little by little. Why there so stop one
is like figuring out what you can get financed for,
right like you know, because like everybody's different, So it's

(39:00):
you got to understand how much you can afford, what
your max budget is, what your comfort zone is, what
your monthly payments are going to be what's your minimum
down payment? What are your closing costs?

Speaker 4 (39:08):
Like all these things?

Speaker 3 (39:09):
You know, Uh so unless you have h unless you
have a backing of bank stumpo.

Speaker 2 (39:14):
Yeah, okay, well let's pretend we don't have a backing
of bank stuff. Family.

Speaker 3 (39:20):
Yeah. So yeah, but we have we have lots of
we have lots of options, like so it's really important
to come back. It's poor confident.

Speaker 2 (39:28):
Life is very easy when.

Speaker 3 (39:29):
You understand what your parents.

Speaker 2 (39:30):
Poor parents get easy. You know that, because then the
kids say, oh, okay, go to your mother. No, you
go to your mother houses it it comes to me. Yeah,
kind of the way life is.

Speaker 3 (39:39):
So you know, that's that's where shut up over there.

Speaker 4 (39:41):
You're talking about mortgage.

Speaker 2 (39:43):
Yeah, what's your best advice? She's twenty six years old,
he's thirty. Her question was simple, what was your question?

Speaker 3 (39:50):
Your question?

Speaker 8 (39:51):
Properties like we have interest in rental properties or they
want your homes out and you know, say Vermont or
Maine just so you have income coming in, or even
like tourist homes for the parks down in Florida or
California or where else.

Speaker 3 (40:07):
So I actually I really agree with Cindy staid, you
got to stay local at first with your first place
you got, it's got to be easy to get to,
and you got to know the market. You got to
know your people that to help you keep that place
up and running.

Speaker 2 (40:17):
Okay, oh boy, Mommy stumpo has always is always wrong,
never ever. Okay, Well we're going off to break. This
is Cydy Stump and you listen Toughest Nails on WBZ
News Radio ten thirty and be right back. Un come

(40:46):
back to Toughest Nails on WBZ News Radio ten thirty.

Speaker 3 (40:50):
Everybody, I'm shotping Ocean at rate. You can reach me
at shot at rate dot com or on my Instagram
at Shantvenocean.

Speaker 4 (40:56):
That's s h a n t at rate dot com
or my ethnic frames doesn't spell it out. And I'm
nick Leagris at Ligris dot com, l I g r
s dot com.

Speaker 8 (41:08):
Lena Grillo.

Speaker 2 (41:09):
Yeah, what do you do?

Speaker 5 (41:09):
Lina?

Speaker 9 (41:10):
I'm a closet designer for who Closets by Design, So
how they reach you Closesbydesign dot com or you can
do clauses by Angelina at gmail dot com.

Speaker 2 (41:21):
Okay, is that the lous? You can speak up? Yes
for sure, because you can We'll get louder.

Speaker 8 (41:26):
That's right.

Speaker 2 (41:26):
Okay, you're in sales. Now get louder. Okay, get loud.
Jennifer Lopez say that. Okay, everybody, have a great, safe weekend.
We'll see you next weekend. This is Cindy Stumpo Toughest
Nails on WBZ News Radio ten thirty