January 3, 2025 • 33 mins
A New Year – Chris Boyd, Jeff Perry, and Russ Ball review 2024, including stocks, bonds, real
estate, and cryptocurrency. The trio offers their forecasts for 2025 and provide some perspective
on how market trends and economic cycles do not last forever and assets tend to revert back to
the mean level over time. The conversation turns to the importance of financial planning in the
context of volatile markets.
For more information or to reach Chris Boyd or Jeff Perry, click the following link:
https://www.wealthenhancement.com/s/advisor-teams/amr
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Welcome to something more with Chris Boyd.
Chris Boyd is a certified financial planner, practitioner,
and senior vice president, financial advisor at wealth
enhancement group.
One of the nation's largest registered investment advisors.
We call it something more because we'd like
to talk not only about those important dollar
and cents issues, but also the quality of
life issues that make the money matters matter.
(00:22):
Here he is your fulfillment facilitator, your partner
in prosperity, advising clients on Cape Cod and
across the country.
Here's your host, Jay Christopher Boyd.
All right.
Welcome to a new year and another episode
of something more with Chris Boyd.
Thanks for being with us.
I'm Chris Boyd.
I'm here with Jeff Perry and Russ Ball.
(00:43):
We are of the AMR team and the
firm is wealth enhancement group.
So glad to have you joining us and
glad to talk about let's, let's start by
looking back and looking ahead this year.
It is the time of year when people
make resolutions and one of them oftentimes is
thinking about their financial life and all that
(01:04):
goes into that.
Maybe a little bit of their portfolio review,
maybe a reset their financial plan.
Um, we certainly can be a resource to
you if you should have any needs along
those lines.
Uh, don't hesitate to reach out to us.
Um, we're, uh, that's what we love to
do.
We're a resource for that kind of thing.
So, uh, in any case, uh, for those
(01:26):
who are, uh, interested, you can, uh, connect
with us by reaching out to our email,
amr-info at wealthenhancement.com.
We are, um, regularly we provide a complimentary
consultation.
Um, we usually work in a two-step
process where we like to take a look
(01:47):
at, um, getting to know you.
Get to know all your priorities, all your,
um, details.
And then we, uh, follow up with a
followup meeting to, uh, do some assessment to
some analysis, present what we found and how
we would suggest you do things.
So if that's something you're thinking this time
of year, you'd benefit from, don't hesitate to
(02:08):
reach out to us.
Uh, again, that's, uh, amr-info at wealthenhancement
.com or 866-771-8901.
Um, so guys, let's, let's start by looking
back and then looking ahead.
Um, I was thinking about, um, performance data
(02:28):
and looking at a couple of different articles
that we're talking about, uh, what's been happening
with the, uh, the performance of the markets.
Um, I'm sure you guys have some of
this too.
Anybody want to chime in with, uh, some
of the data, the S&P 500 perhaps?
Uh, been another banner year, 2024.
(02:49):
Another banner year, 23.31% in 24
after a 24.2% to back-to
-backs.
So 23 got 24 and 24 got 23.
Huh?
Is that basically what it is?
Yeah, that sounds pretty good.
A two-year gain of 53%.
That's kind of astounding.
Of course it had been a down year
(03:10):
the year before.
I know.
Hey, I'm trying to, I'm trying to celebrate.
Yeah.
Sorry.
But no, that's pretty amazing.
Um, that's, uh, the biggest gain, biggest two
-year gain since 1997.
It's amazing.
Yeah.
Um, it is, uh, it is after the
pandemic and the, you know, yeah, bad years
(03:31):
for the stock and bond market in 2022,
which was really driven by the feds, um,
jump in interest rates that took a toll
on both stocks and bonds, uh, at that
time because of the severity of the dramatic
change in, in the nature of that.
Um, that being said, um, look, I, I
(03:52):
think, um, you got to celebrate, like you
said, it's, it's exciting to have those kinds
of returns.
Um, it, it's, um, naturally a time where
you start thinking, well, can that continue and,
you know, you look to other periods of
time and, um, although we tend to say,
oh, the average is, you know, two years
up, one year down, you know, that kind
(04:13):
of thing.
It's, uh, not necessarily sequential that way.
Um, one year down, two years up.
Well, however, um, as you look at it,
right.
But, um, you know, you look to the
1990s, uh, the 1980s and nineties, really there
were prolonged periods of, um, upswing and, um,
(04:34):
you know, prolonged upswings.
Uh, so it's not necessarily, um, something where
we have to be thinking, oh, the other
shoe's going to drop, you know, that kind
of thing.
But, uh, just while we're talking about it,
do you want to, uh, anybody want to
make any predictions?
What do you think?
What should we expect?
So in the, uh, well, in the CNN
(04:54):
article, they said, uh, wall street forecast reviewed
by CNN show most strategists expect double digit
percentage growth for the S and P 500
in 2025.
That's not me though.
More moderate than in 2024.
Analysts expect that I'll just share this S
and P 500 to rise 14.8%
(05:16):
in 2025, according to facts that, um, I'd
love to know what they predicted for 2024,
but I know you don't have that data,
but yeah, everyone up their predictions as they
go.
Right.
Yeah.
Well, Santa Claus didn't think we needed any
more at the end of 24.
Oh, my wife believes in Santa Claus and
(05:39):
the Santa Claus rally.
And she got excited at the end of
the year.
Like, Oh, we're going to get a, we're
going to get right after Christmas.
And Santa Claus was very good all year,
but he did not give us the rally.
So would you like my prediction?
I would, I see Russ thinking about it.
So I'll go first.
I don't mind.
Well, first I'll say something that didn't happen
(06:01):
in 24.
And that is that we did not have
a correction, which is a normal part of
the market, 10%, you know, broad based and
the averages.
So my first correction is that we, my
first prediction is that we have a correction
and my end of year prediction for the
S and P is 6,200 after the
(06:21):
correction, uh, 8% gain for the year.
So I'm optimistic, you know, yeah, I'm not
running to the Hills.
Um, that's a realistic kind of a way
to look at it.
Um, but that's, that's good.
So an 8% gain is your, your
estimate.
I was going to start with a thousand
point gain, but that includes the 10%
(06:43):
correction coming back from that.
So I think we're going to have, you
know, end of the year, 6,200, roughly
8% gain, you know, moderation kind of
sector rotations coming on, maybe value being more
appreciated.
Maybe that, maybe the, you know, the high
flying techs, AI stocks might have a neutral
(07:04):
year, but at the end of it, when
everything balances out, I think a modest gain
of 8% after the correction is how
I see it.
Well, I have a stat to share.
That's kind of in line with that.
I read this morning that, uh, after two
consecutive years of 20 plus percent, uh, returns,
the average was about six, I think it
(07:24):
was 6.7% for the ensuing year.
So that's pretty close.
That sounds in line with, yeah, that kind
of thing.
Thank you for the affirmation, Russ.
Excellent.
Um, that's interesting.
And I think, um, you know, your point
about a correction and so forth.
I'm, I'm feeling in line with that.
(07:45):
Look, I would just start out by saying,
uh, predictions like this are really of no
value to anybody.
It's just, it's fun to do.
Mine has any value.
Yeah.
Right.
I mean, you know, so, uh, that being
said, uh, I I'm more cautious.
I think, you know, we'll be, uh, just
a little bit positive or a little bit
(08:05):
negative when year end comes.
And, um, floating through the year or with
a correction and recovery.
No, I think there'll be, um, I mean,
I think there'll be a downturn at some
point, you know, you look at, we're a
little overextended when it comes to, uh, PE
multiples at 22 times or thereabouts.
Um, maybe a little less than that today.
(08:26):
I don't know where it is exactly today,
but, um, and we're recording by the way
on January 2nd.
Um, and then, you know, when, uh, when
you look at, um, the high, uh, prospects
for a government showdown, uh, when it comes
to, uh, the debt ceiling been pushed off
to what March at this point, uh, uh,
(08:49):
when you think about world events, uh, geopolitics,
uh, uh, you know, I don't know.
It seems it would be surprising to me
if we didn't have a correction.
Like you were saying, uh, you know, last
year we didn't say though, we had a,
um, a downturn of what was it around
8% at some point during the year,
but not, um, a full 10% correction.
(09:10):
And, um, I just, and I just think
the likelihood is high that we'll have some
disruptions and some volatility reenter the, the experience.
Um, and I think it's probably likely, you
know, we'll end the year a little bit
positive, but, um, I don't think it'll be,
uh, uh, another banner year that way.
(09:32):
Not going to give us a number for
the, I didn't put, I didn't put a
calculation to it, I'll go 2%, uh, if
that's helpful, 2% higher.
Okay.
So you're 59, 50, maybe.
All right.
That's pretty pessimistic, I think.
But, um, at the same time, you know,
after you have, um, a couple of years
(09:54):
of banner numbers, like, you know, it seems
to be surprising to me that we just
didn't have some sort of a slowdown a
little bit.
I'm going to, when I go ahead, Russ,
sorry.
Yeah.
I have another stat.
So, um, only once has S and P
had more than more than two years consecutive
20 plus percent.
So, and then I think it was in
(10:14):
the nineties, so only one time ever of
three.
I'd be very happy to be wrong and
have another record.
I'm fine with that.
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
Well, let's talk about some other, um, stats
in terms of the, the year.
Um, let me just see if I can
find some of these details.
Uh, was I thought that I saw gold
(10:35):
in the numbers, but let's look at the
treasury.
Treasury had this wild fluctuation from, uh, yeah.
Well, I just, at one point, just a
few months ago, we were down around.
Uh, 3.65 or something like that on
the yield and went up to about 4
.65. Uh, that's a little bit off that,
(10:57):
but, um, it's what, around four and a
half, maybe on the yield somewhere there abouts
four or five, seven, four or five, seven.
So, um, you know, that with that, keep
in mind as yields go higher, uh, prices
tend to fall, so you have some disruption
in performance there.
(11:18):
Uh, but the year started what with the,
uh, treasury around 3.9 and, uh, ending
higher, um, and, um, what else could we
share as interesting stats and just like sifting
through this article?
Um, you got anything, Jeff, you want to
(11:39):
share?
It's my least favorite thing to talk about,
but cryptocurrency, you have to, you know, you
have to give credit where credit is due
because we're critical when it's not there, but
cryptocurrency returns specifically Bitcoin had a heck of
a year, primarily didn't have a heck of
a year, had a heck of a couple
of months after the election, you know, president
(12:01):
Trump was, uh, reelected or elected, however you
want to frame it.
And his, uh, posture on policy is different
than that of president Biden.
Well, on the expectation, he's been pretty critical
of, uh, uh, the SEC chair.
Right.
Kenzler is it?
I can't think of his name and he's
leaving and he's getting rid of him in
(12:22):
a hurry and, uh, put in someone who's
more friendly to crypto, which, uh, crypto markets
have been very excited about and the prospects
of, um, uh, the performance of, uh, crypto
is pretty appealing from that perspective.
Um, I think that there was an interesting
(12:44):
article in the wall street journal yesterday about
the topic of cryptocurrency and some of the
changes that would, should be helpful to, um,
to, uh, the outlook for a digital currency.
Correct.
And whether or not that's baked in, you
know, the efficient market theory, right.
(13:06):
Is, is all this baked in all the
favorable stuff brought forward, which happens a lot
in markets.
Yeah.
Are markets too overly optimistic in crypto or
AI or, you know, pick one.
Right.
Um, not, not long ago, I was thinking
of this this morning when I was thinking
about what we talked about on the show,
but for a period of time, um, e
(13:30):
electronic tokens, what was it?
Those, uh, tokens that you bought of artwork
or the original.
Yeah.
Um, and NFTs.
Yeah.
They were the rage tokens.
Yeah.
They were the rage and people were spending
crazy money to, you know, buy the original
image, uh, original digital image.
(13:50):
Or then we have this period of people
buying real estate in the metaverse and paying
ridiculous, you know, I did, that's an adjective
that I'm choosing.
Some may say investing for their future.
Um, yeah, I have a cold, so excuse
my coughing, but maybe my cold is affecting
my word choice as well, but buying these
(14:14):
things that are trendy and socially popular, and
they last for a little while and then
they just kind of disappear.
So they're very speculative.
And for me anyway, I still put cryptocurrency,
it could change.
Uh, I still put cryptocurrency in that highly
speculative bucket.
Well, we would encourage people to treat it
(14:34):
that way in their investing.
If they should use crypto in some fashion,
some of the things that have changed over
the year, uh, we did see the introduction.
It was, I don't know if it was
last year or even before that, but it
was, it was recent that, um, ETF, uh,
access to crypto, um, became more widely accessible.
Uh, similarly, we've seen, um, platforms, uh, embrace
(14:58):
the ability to provide, uh, like brokerage platforms
start to begin to give, um, acceptance to
the idea that they're going to make, uh,
it available to buy, uh, through a, a
platform like a brokerage platform.
Fidelity, I think already does this.
Um, Schwab I think is in the process
(15:19):
of doing this.
There might be others, but, um, that makes
it more widely accessible as opposed to having
to go through a digital wallet and trying
to find, you know, you know, which, which
platform is legit, which is which ones, you
know, we saw the FXT, uh, uh, was
that the one that was the, uh, blew
(15:39):
up with, uh, Oh, Sam.
Yeah.
Bank fraud.
Yeah.
So in any case, um, his name is
Sam bank fraud.
I mean, if you say it quickly, almost,
almost, um, that's not original content.
I stole it from Saturday night live.
(16:00):
I think that's pretty funny.
Uh, so anyway, but my point, uh, ultimately
is that, you know, you're seeing this greater
acceptance of, and, um, easier engagement, uh, that
also, uh, has helped this, the price go
higher, faster as more people, you know, have
(16:21):
the opportunity to access this more readily, uh,
through these various, uh, channels, uh, ETFs and
now brokerage platforms.
Uh, so, you know, all these things kind
of, uh, uh, lead you to think, okay,
maybe it's gonna still have some, uh, involvement
that's easy if, as opposed to a regulatory
(16:42):
environment that was very skeptical and made it
more challenging and, uh, so forth, you know,
a lot of the obstacles have been, you
remove some of that regulatory, uh, there was
a, you know, how, how will this be
regulated?
Um, where is it regulated as a commodity?
Is it a commodity like gold or silver
(17:03):
or something?
Is it a, um, um, a currency?
Is it, uh, not a currency.
I'm sure it's not a currency.
So is it a capital gains treated, you
know, like all this, well, the IRS says
it is now you have to report your
transactions.
Yeah.
So, um, you get my point that it
just, it's a, it's a, a challenging, you
(17:23):
know, for, okay, it becomes more, um, accepted,
but there's still things that, you know, investors
need to be mindful of being tuned into.
Um, but if you're going to be speculative,
that is say money, you're willing to lose
a significant, have significant volatility, which could be
attractive at times, but it could also be.
(17:45):
Uh, unattractive at times where you could, you
know, lose significant amounts, uh, in very short
period of time.
Uh, if you're willing to tolerate that kind
of volatility, then that's how to think about
these kinds of investments.
Yep.
Um, so in any case, uh, did we
find, I didn't find the Bitcoin, uh, returns
for last year.
I didn't find them.
I just, but they were, they were, um,
(18:08):
uh, enormous, um, phenomenal hundreds of times, um,
multiple, um, uh, it was 500 times.
It might've been even greater.
We'll, we'll find it in just a minute.
Uh, I'll, I'll, I'll look that up.
One sector of the economy that didn't have
a great 24, um, is the real estate
sector, whether it be, uh, you know, perhaps
stocks that you own in the real estate
(18:29):
sector or a REIT maybe, um, or you're
looking at the value of your home, depending
on where you live.
It was not a great year for real
estate.
So, I mean, that's in my mind, you
talk a lot about Chris, about reversion to
the mean, and I think real estate was
affected, you know, the first thing people say
is it was higher interest rates, right?
(18:49):
So that's relevant, certainly, but also we had
such a boom year years during the pandemic
where so many people bought second homes or
moved or did whatever they were going to
do.
I think a lot of that business was
brought forward and it was time for maybe
a correction anyhow, in the real estate market
(19:11):
prices were going through the roof, building permits
were through the roof, and so you throw
on 7%, 30 year mortgage rates on that.
And they really, sorry.
Just, uh, I was, I was incorrect.
It was about 116%.
It looks like Bitcoin specifically over a one
year period.
Okay.
Still a great year, right?
But yeah, but I mean, that's, that's, I
(19:32):
mean, that's doubled, you know, so went from,
I think around, I want to say it
was around 44, 45,000 up to 97
or something.
Yeah.
So in any case, um, maybe it's a
good time to trade in your Bitcoin and
buy some, uh, real estate.
Yeah.
(19:52):
So continue with your point about real estate,
the reversion to the mean you were saying,
yes, that's all.
I think I was done with my comments
basically, but I think several factors in addition
to the real estate, uh, the interest rate
on mortgages, the market needed some time to
breathe.
Prices were getting out of hand and people
had handled, you know, done what they were
(20:13):
going to do.
So builders were in full steam.
And whenever that happens, if the market slows
down, builders often get caught with a little
bit of inventory and that slow additional inventory
slows down prices.
So I think it's a normal thing.
Part of the market, part of the reversion
to the mean, just like stocks can't go
up 30% a year forever, 25%
(20:35):
forever, house prices were going up double digits
also for several years.
That just puts people out of range.
And, you know, would be buyers just rest.
You've talked about this before would be buyers
just say, I'm, I can't buy anything, right?
Yeah.
Yeah.
I mean, a lot of, uh, people in
my age group, or at least peers that
I talked to are not even educating the
(20:57):
possibility of buying a home right now, just
feeling like it's prices are too high rates
are too high rates are higher and there's,
you know, there's just not a ton of
options in the market right now where they
look.
I would, um, say that, I mean, what,
what are, uh, interest rates, uh, on mortgages
around 7%, 30, 30 year, around seven, give
(21:18):
or take, depending on credit and all that
kind of stuff, 15, you know, six and
a half.
I don't think that's a historically high.
Um, it's just, we're so used to the
very low, uh, but that makes it challenging.
Um, I would argue are though, it's more
like historically high.
(21:39):
Yeah.
Yeah.
So them coming back or at least the,
the percentage of increase that people catch up,
I saw a statistic last night that the
average age of the first time home buyer
is the highest it's ever been in the
United States and it's 39.
That's very, that's, that's goes right to Russ's
(22:00):
comments though.
I mean, yeah, I bought my first house
at, um, 24.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I think I thought I was overpaying.
It was a hundred thousand dollars.
Nope.
Um, we, uh, I was a similar age.
(22:20):
I think I was a little older, maybe
26 or 27, something like that.
But, um, yeah.
Um, I think it was a little easier.
Uh, well, the, the price was a similar,
it was like 125,000 for when we
bought our first house, uh, same time our
income was nil, of course, but, but it
(22:44):
worked.
The math worked.
You could, you could buy a, it was
a ranch.
We bought a two bedroom ranch and it
was great for us in Plymouth actually.
And, uh, we could afford it.
Yeah.
I don't think it brings you to the
whole thing about student debt and, you know,
the, uh, all, all these variables that go
into health insurance costs and, and so forth,
(23:05):
uh, you know, all these, these related considerations.
Um, but I think, I think it's, you
know, we get back to this notion that,
um, there was a supply, uh, problem, if
you will, in the, uh, housing, um, and.
Prices went up dramatically.
(23:27):
Uh, people didn't want to give up their
low interest rates.
That's going to continue to create a lag
on, um, supply, uh, for a while.
And I think that's probably going to be
the case for a while.
Still supply is so regional though, like in
Florida, where I am, where there's a lot
of building probably, um, the supply is up
because these builders were, you know, I have
(23:49):
staff they're building and three years ago, two
years ago, you couldn't buy a inventory home
because they were so behind the building homes
that people wanted.
Now you can't in certain parts of the
state.
Um, you can buy an inventory home at
a price that was substantially less a couple
of years ago.
So it depends where you are.
If you're in Cape Cod where you gentlemen
(24:11):
are, it's, there's not a lot of building
going on, so that's not impacting the real
estate market, I would think.
That's a good point.
Um, so, I mean, I guess as investors,
you got to be thinking about these kinds
of, uh, back and forth and so forth
was, I think where you were going with
that, Jeff, uh, the, um, the, the pullback
(24:34):
per se or whatever that, you know, prices
seem to have had a little bit of
a decline.
Yeah.
I'm just in my head comparing like you're
often comment about reversion to the mean, and
that's, it's normal markets go up, they go
down.
Um, that's why you have a financial plan.
That's why you review your plan.
That's why you talk to your advisor so
(24:55):
you don't get swept away in whatever sector
that's getting your attention in the temporary situation,
you have a longer term vision and a
plan to get you where you, where you
want to be.
Yeah.
Good point.
Good point.
Um, it does, and it does bring us
to this, uh, bigger question that we, we
won't deal with today, but this, um, you
(25:18):
know, this ongoing challenge as a society that
we face the question of, um, how do
we deal with the fact that.
Uh, there's some inequity, uh, in terms of
people with lesser resources, have lesser ability to
acquire a home as an example, whereas people
who have a wealth have greater ability to
(25:39):
continue to grow their wealth.
Um, and so it really becomes essential for
every investor to every person, you know, to
be thinking in terms of that, they need
to have the ability to be in a
position where they can live below their means,
uh, so that they can accumulate some resources
(25:59):
to be part of the wealth class and
not just part of the wage class, because
if you're only in the wage class, you're
not participating as fully in, uh, the opportunities
of the way our society seems to be
working.
You know, and part of that is the
government, but part of it's you as a
(26:22):
person, I think that's what you're saying, right?
Yeah.
It's partly one has to strive to cultivate
that extra, that little bit, little bit extra
to invest, whether it's in your work plan
or whether it's, uh, you know, like a
401k or whether it's in your own savings
and investment, uh, outside of that, uh, one
thing that's interesting, I will add to our
(26:43):
conversation just before we look to kind of
wind down, uh, was how, uh, ETFs.
We talked about this not long ago that
ETFs have taken on a greater, uh, participation
in, um, the, uh, choice of selection of
how people choose to invest, um, 30%
(27:04):
growth, um, in the use of ETFs last
year, uh, bringing, um, the investment in ETFs
to $10 trillion, uh, last year, um, pretty
significant.
Uh, that's U S E T a U
S based, uh, uh, stock exposure.
And as we talked before, some are a
(27:27):
lot of that money is coming out of
mutual funds, I assume.
Yeah, it is.
And I think, um, it's interesting too, that
we, you know, we talked about this, that
a lot of this tends to be index
based.
Um, I saw some interesting stuff from Jeff
Patak.
We should probably see if we can get
him back.
He was talking about how, um, active managed
who's a morning star, uh, person.
(27:49):
And, um, he was talking about actively managed
how they're not really all that different in
terms of that top heavy exposure, um, to
the, the, the mag, you know, seven or,
um, you know, the top 10 holdings tend
to be a lot of the same heavy
weight that indexes have.
Uh, it's, you know, not as, um, different
(28:12):
that, as you might expect, but it's grown
quite a bit.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Did you see some of this too?
It was a 40% of the mag
seven make up the S and P that's
off the top.
Yeah.
I think it's, I think it's, uh, even,
I think it might even be more, but
I don't remember now, but yeah.
My, and then this was interesting that, uh,
(28:32):
you know, his kind of point was, uh,
you're, you know, if you're thinking active management's
getting you a broader diversification or, uh, it's
not as different as you might envision.
And I think that's maybe an, an important
opportunity for managers to be recognizing or thinking
about if they're really going to provide, um,
active management and, uh, benefit, uh, to maybe
(28:56):
somehow differentiate from the index.
Um, and more, yeah, anyway, interesting stuff.
Uh, when it comes to, um, the year
ahead, lots to think about, um, you know,
whether markets will go up or go down,
you know, the, the issue for most investors
is to be a long-term investor, uh,
(29:17):
we don't know whether markets will go higher
or go lower in a given year.
It's all, you know, prognosticating.
It's just, uh, take it with a grain
of salt.
Really the, the reality is we want to
be invested for the long-term because we
want to participate when markets go up and
we don't know from one moment to the
next, whether we're positioned to go higher or
(29:38):
go lower, we can all have an opinion,
but that doesn't necessarily define what the market
will do.
And, um, I think the big picture is,
uh, you know, we can be modestly tactical
here and there to try to, um, adjust
our allocation, but we might either miss out
or take on too much risk or whatever
may be.
If we try to be too, too, um,
(29:59):
active in that tactical, uh, get me in,
get me out kind of mindset.
So the best thing to do ultimately is
to have a long-term view, find the
allocation that's a good fit, uh, be invested
in that allocation and some modest adjustments, uh,
about what's, which sectors represent opportunity, uh, where,
(30:20):
or where, where there's opportunity within the market,
how to be structured within the market where
you have participation, but, um, you're going to
ultimately benefit, uh, by the longer term directional
movements of, uh, exposure to the market, which
over time, if we expect the economy to
continue to grow, uh, we would expect to
(30:44):
benefit from now, if we find, you know,
that, um, we really do have, as an
example, uh, mass deportation, uh, or dramatic, um,
tariff increases.
Some of the things that people worry about,
uh, in the article, what's been articulated with
the political perspective of, you know, often what
(31:05):
drives a lot of our listeners to have
anxiety.
Um, if those things do actually materialize, then
we want to maybe position a little bit
more defensively to say, oh, how do we,
how do we position for these kinds of
things?
But there's a big difference in rhetoric and
application of policy, right?
So let's, let's see how things develop, see
how things go, because there's also the potential
(31:27):
for, uh, less taxes of, uh, when it
comes to corporate taxes being, you know, low,
low rates extended and less regulation, less regulation,
all these things that would benefit businesses as
well.
So you really have to be a measured
kind of approach and see how we do.
Yeah.
Um, anything to add?
(31:48):
It's going to be another interesting year.
It sure will.
All right.
Well with that, everybody, um, if we can
be a resource to you, as you think
about your own planning, don't hesitate to reach
out that you can connect with us.
Um, and as I said, uh, uh, opportunity
for, uh, uh, financial planning and portfolio management,
(32:10):
we offer a complimentary consultation and would love
to talk to you along the way.
Until next time, everybody keeps striving for something
more.
Thank you for listening to something more with
Chris Boyd.
Call us for help, whether it's for financial
planning or portfolio management, insurance concerns, or those
quality of life issues that make the money
matters matter.
(32:31):
Whatever's on your mind.
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(32:52):
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(33:13):
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Welcome to something more with Chris Boyd.
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(00:22):
Here he is your fulfillment facilitator, your partner
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Here's your host, Jay Christopher Boyd.
All right.
Welcome to a new year and another episode
of something more with Chris Boyd.
Thanks for being with us.
I'm Chris Boyd.
I'm here with Jeff Perry and Russ Ball.
(00:43):
We are of the AMR team and the
firm is wealth enhancement group.
So glad to have you joining us and
glad to talk about let's, let's start by
looking back and looking ahead this year.
It is the time of year when people
make resolutions and one of them oftentimes is
thinking about their financial life and all that
(01:04):
goes into that.
Maybe a little bit of their portfolio review,
maybe a reset their financial plan.
Um, we certainly can be a resource to
you if you should have any needs along
those lines.
Uh, don't hesitate to reach out to us.
Um, we're, uh, that's what we love to
do.
We're a resource for that kind of thing.
So, uh, in any case, uh, for those
(01:26):
who are, uh, interested, you can, uh, connect
with us by reaching out to our email,
amr-info at wealthenhancement.com.
We are, um, regularly we provide a complimentary
consultation.
Um, we usually work in a two-step
process where we like to take a look
(01:47):
at, um, getting to know you.
Get to know all your priorities, all your,
um, details.
And then we, uh, follow up with a
followup meeting to, uh, do some assessment to
some analysis, present what we found and how
we would suggest you do things.
So if that's something you're thinking this time
of year, you'd benefit from, don't hesitate to
(02:08):
reach out to us.
Uh, again, that's, uh, amr-info at wealthenhancement
.com or 866-771-8901.
Um, so guys, let's, let's start by looking
back and then looking ahead.
Um, I was thinking about, um, performance data
(02:28):
and looking at a couple of different articles
that we're talking about, uh, what's been happening
with the, uh, the performance of the markets.
Um, I'm sure you guys have some of
this too.
Anybody want to chime in with, uh, some
of the data, the S&P 500 perhaps?
Uh, been another banner year, 2024.
(02:49):
Another banner year, 23.31% in 24
after a 24.2% to back-to
-backs.
So 23 got 24 and 24 got 23.
Huh?
Is that basically what it is?
Yeah, that sounds pretty good.
A two-year gain of 53%.
That's kind of astounding.
Of course it had been a down year
(03:10):
the year before.
I know.
Hey, I'm trying to, I'm trying to celebrate.
Yeah.
Sorry.
But no, that's pretty amazing.
Um, that's, uh, the biggest gain, biggest two
-year gain since 1997.
It's amazing.
Yeah.
Um, it is, uh, it is after the
pandemic and the, you know, yeah, bad years
(03:31):
for the stock and bond market in 2022,
which was really driven by the feds, um,
jump in interest rates that took a toll
on both stocks and bonds, uh, at that
time because of the severity of the dramatic
change in, in the nature of that.
Um, that being said, um, look, I, I
(03:52):
think, um, you got to celebrate, like you
said, it's, it's exciting to have those kinds
of returns.
Um, it, it's, um, naturally a time where
you start thinking, well, can that continue and,
you know, you look to other periods of
time and, um, although we tend to say,
oh, the average is, you know, two years
up, one year down, you know, that kind
(04:13):
of thing.
It's, uh, not necessarily sequential that way.
Um, one year down, two years up.
Well, however, um, as you look at it,
right.
But, um, you know, you look to the
1990s, uh, the 1980s and nineties, really there
were prolonged periods of, um, upswing and, um,
(04:34):
you know, prolonged upswings.
Uh, so it's not necessarily, um, something where
we have to be thinking, oh, the other
shoe's going to drop, you know, that kind
of thing.
But, uh, just while we're talking about it,
do you want to, uh, anybody want to
make any predictions?
What do you think?
What should we expect?
So in the, uh, well, in the CNN
(04:54):
article, they said, uh, wall street forecast reviewed
by CNN show most strategists expect double digit
percentage growth for the S and P 500
in 2025.
That's not me though.
More moderate than in 2024.
Analysts expect that I'll just share this S
and P 500 to rise 14.8%
(05:16):
in 2025, according to facts that, um, I'd
love to know what they predicted for 2024,
but I know you don't have that data,
but yeah, everyone up their predictions as they
go.
Right.
Yeah.
Well, Santa Claus didn't think we needed any
more at the end of 24.
Oh, my wife believes in Santa Claus and
(05:39):
the Santa Claus rally.
And she got excited at the end of
the year.
Like, Oh, we're going to get a, we're
going to get right after Christmas.
And Santa Claus was very good all year,
but he did not give us the rally.
So would you like my prediction?
I would, I see Russ thinking about it.
So I'll go first.
I don't mind.
Well, first I'll say something that didn't happen
(06:01):
in 24.
And that is that we did not have
a correction, which is a normal part of
the market, 10%, you know, broad based and
the averages.
So my first correction is that we, my
first prediction is that we have a correction
and my end of year prediction for the
S and P is 6,200 after the
(06:21):
correction, uh, 8% gain for the year.
So I'm optimistic, you know, yeah, I'm not
running to the Hills.
Um, that's a realistic kind of a way
to look at it.
Um, but that's, that's good.
So an 8% gain is your, your
estimate.
I was going to start with a thousand
point gain, but that includes the 10%
(06:43):
correction coming back from that.
So I think we're going to have, you
know, end of the year, 6,200, roughly
8% gain, you know, moderation kind of
sector rotations coming on, maybe value being more
appreciated.
Maybe that, maybe the, you know, the high
flying techs, AI stocks might have a neutral
(07:04):
year, but at the end of it, when
everything balances out, I think a modest gain
of 8% after the correction is how
I see it.
Well, I have a stat to share.
That's kind of in line with that.
I read this morning that, uh, after two
consecutive years of 20 plus percent, uh, returns,
the average was about six, I think it
(07:24):
was 6.7% for the ensuing year.
So that's pretty close.
That sounds in line with, yeah, that kind
of thing.
Thank you for the affirmation, Russ.
Excellent.
Um, that's interesting.
And I think, um, you know, your point
about a correction and so forth.
I'm, I'm feeling in line with that.
(07:45):
Look, I would just start out by saying,
uh, predictions like this are really of no
value to anybody.
It's just, it's fun to do.
Mine has any value.
Yeah.
Right.
I mean, you know, so, uh, that being
said, uh, I I'm more cautious.
I think, you know, we'll be, uh, just
a little bit positive or a little bit
(08:05):
negative when year end comes.
And, um, floating through the year or with
a correction and recovery.
No, I think there'll be, um, I mean,
I think there'll be a downturn at some
point, you know, you look at, we're a
little overextended when it comes to, uh, PE
multiples at 22 times or thereabouts.
Um, maybe a little less than that today.
(08:26):
I don't know where it is exactly today,
but, um, and we're recording by the way
on January 2nd.
Um, and then, you know, when, uh, when
you look at, um, the high, uh, prospects
for a government showdown, uh, when it comes
to, uh, the debt ceiling been pushed off
to what March at this point, uh, uh,
(08:49):
when you think about world events, uh, geopolitics,
uh, uh, you know, I don't know.
It seems it would be surprising to me
if we didn't have a correction.
Like you were saying, uh, you know, last
year we didn't say though, we had a,
um, a downturn of what was it around
8% at some point during the year,
but not, um, a full 10% correction.
(09:10):
And, um, I just, and I just think
the likelihood is high that we'll have some
disruptions and some volatility reenter the, the experience.
Um, and I think it's probably likely, you
know, we'll end the year a little bit
positive, but, um, I don't think it'll be,
uh, uh, another banner year that way.
(09:32):
Not going to give us a number for
the, I didn't put, I didn't put a
calculation to it, I'll go 2%, uh, if
that's helpful, 2% higher.
Okay.
So you're 59, 50, maybe.
All right.
That's pretty pessimistic, I think.
But, um, at the same time, you know,
after you have, um, a couple of years
(09:54):
of banner numbers, like, you know, it seems
to be surprising to me that we just
didn't have some sort of a slowdown a
little bit.
I'm going to, when I go ahead, Russ,
sorry.
Yeah.
I have another stat.
So, um, only once has S and P
had more than more than two years consecutive
20 plus percent.
So, and then I think it was in
(10:14):
the nineties, so only one time ever of
three.
I'd be very happy to be wrong and
have another record.
I'm fine with that.
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
Well, let's talk about some other, um, stats
in terms of the, the year.
Um, let me just see if I can
find some of these details.
Uh, was I thought that I saw gold
(10:35):
in the numbers, but let's look at the
treasury.
Treasury had this wild fluctuation from, uh, yeah.
Well, I just, at one point, just a
few months ago, we were down around.
Uh, 3.65 or something like that on
the yield and went up to about 4
.65. Uh, that's a little bit off that,
(10:57):
but, um, it's what, around four and a
half, maybe on the yield somewhere there abouts
four or five, seven, four or five, seven.
So, um, you know, that with that, keep
in mind as yields go higher, uh, prices
tend to fall, so you have some disruption
in performance there.
(11:18):
Uh, but the year started what with the,
uh, treasury around 3.9 and, uh, ending
higher, um, and, um, what else could we
share as interesting stats and just like sifting
through this article?
Um, you got anything, Jeff, you want to
(11:39):
share?
It's my least favorite thing to talk about,
but cryptocurrency, you have to, you know, you
have to give credit where credit is due
because we're critical when it's not there, but
cryptocurrency returns specifically Bitcoin had a heck of
a year, primarily didn't have a heck of
a year, had a heck of a couple
of months after the election, you know, president
(12:01):
Trump was, uh, reelected or elected, however you
want to frame it.
And his, uh, posture on policy is different
than that of president Biden.
Well, on the expectation, he's been pretty critical
of, uh, uh, the SEC chair.
Right.
Kenzler is it?
I can't think of his name and he's
leaving and he's getting rid of him in
(12:22):
a hurry and, uh, put in someone who's
more friendly to crypto, which, uh, crypto markets
have been very excited about and the prospects
of, um, uh, the performance of, uh, crypto
is pretty appealing from that perspective.
Um, I think that there was an interesting
(12:44):
article in the wall street journal yesterday about
the topic of cryptocurrency and some of the
changes that would, should be helpful to, um,
to, uh, the outlook for a digital currency.
Correct.
And whether or not that's baked in, you
know, the efficient market theory, right.
(13:06):
Is, is all this baked in all the
favorable stuff brought forward, which happens a lot
in markets.
Yeah.
Are markets too overly optimistic in crypto or
AI or, you know, pick one.
Right.
Um, not, not long ago, I was thinking
of this this morning when I was thinking
about what we talked about on the show,
but for a period of time, um, e
(13:30):
electronic tokens, what was it?
Those, uh, tokens that you bought of artwork
or the original.
Yeah.
Um, and NFTs.
Yeah.
They were the rage tokens.
Yeah.
They were the rage and people were spending
crazy money to, you know, buy the original
image, uh, original digital image.
(13:50):
Or then we have this period of people
buying real estate in the metaverse and paying
ridiculous, you know, I did, that's an adjective
that I'm choosing.
Some may say investing for their future.
Um, yeah, I have a cold, so excuse
my coughing, but maybe my cold is affecting
my word choice as well, but buying these
(14:14):
things that are trendy and socially popular, and
they last for a little while and then
they just kind of disappear.
So they're very speculative.
And for me anyway, I still put cryptocurrency,
it could change.
Uh, I still put cryptocurrency in that highly
speculative bucket.
Well, we would encourage people to treat it
(14:34):
that way in their investing.
If they should use crypto in some fashion,
some of the things that have changed over
the year, uh, we did see the introduction.
It was, I don't know if it was
last year or even before that, but it
was, it was recent that, um, ETF, uh,
access to crypto, um, became more widely accessible.
Uh, similarly, we've seen, um, platforms, uh, embrace
(14:58):
the ability to provide, uh, like brokerage platforms
start to begin to give, um, acceptance to
the idea that they're going to make, uh,
it available to buy, uh, through a, a
platform like a brokerage platform.
Fidelity, I think already does this.
Um, Schwab I think is in the process
(15:19):
of doing this.
There might be others, but, um, that makes
it more widely accessible as opposed to having
to go through a digital wallet and trying
to find, you know, you know, which, which
platform is legit, which is which ones, you
know, we saw the FXT, uh, uh, was
that the one that was the, uh, blew
(15:39):
up with, uh, Oh, Sam.
Yeah.
Bank fraud.
Yeah.
So in any case, um, his name is
Sam bank fraud.
I mean, if you say it quickly, almost,
almost, um, that's not original content.
I stole it from Saturday night live.
(16:00):
I think that's pretty funny.
Uh, so anyway, but my point, uh, ultimately
is that, you know, you're seeing this greater
acceptance of, and, um, easier engagement, uh, that
also, uh, has helped this, the price go
higher, faster as more people, you know, have
(16:21):
the opportunity to access this more readily, uh,
through these various, uh, channels, uh, ETFs and
now brokerage platforms.
Uh, so, you know, all these things kind
of, uh, uh, lead you to think, okay,
maybe it's gonna still have some, uh, involvement
that's easy if, as opposed to a regulatory
(16:42):
environment that was very skeptical and made it
more challenging and, uh, so forth, you know,
a lot of the obstacles have been, you
remove some of that regulatory, uh, there was
a, you know, how, how will this be
regulated?
Um, where is it regulated as a commodity?
Is it a commodity like gold or silver
(17:03):
or something?
Is it a, um, um, a currency?
Is it, uh, not a currency.
I'm sure it's not a currency.
So is it a capital gains treated, you
know, like all this, well, the IRS says
it is now you have to report your
transactions.
Yeah.
So, um, you get my point that it
just, it's a, it's a, a challenging, you
(17:23):
know, for, okay, it becomes more, um, accepted,
but there's still things that, you know, investors
need to be mindful of being tuned into.
Um, but if you're going to be speculative,
that is say money, you're willing to lose
a significant, have significant volatility, which could be
attractive at times, but it could also be.
(17:45):
Uh, unattractive at times where you could, you
know, lose significant amounts, uh, in very short
period of time.
Uh, if you're willing to tolerate that kind
of volatility, then that's how to think about
these kinds of investments.
Yep.
Um, so in any case, uh, did we
find, I didn't find the Bitcoin, uh, returns
for last year.
I didn't find them.
I just, but they were, they were, um,
(18:08):
uh, enormous, um, phenomenal hundreds of times, um,
multiple, um, uh, it was 500 times.
It might've been even greater.
We'll, we'll find it in just a minute.
Uh, I'll, I'll, I'll look that up.
One sector of the economy that didn't have
a great 24, um, is the real estate
sector, whether it be, uh, you know, perhaps
stocks that you own in the real estate
(18:29):
sector or a REIT maybe, um, or you're
looking at the value of your home, depending
on where you live.
It was not a great year for real
estate.
So, I mean, that's in my mind, you
talk a lot about Chris, about reversion to
the mean, and I think real estate was
affected, you know, the first thing people say
is it was higher interest rates, right?
(18:49):
So that's relevant, certainly, but also we had
such a boom year years during the pandemic
where so many people bought second homes or
moved or did whatever they were going to
do.
I think a lot of that business was
brought forward and it was time for maybe
a correction anyhow, in the real estate market
(19:11):
prices were going through the roof, building permits
were through the roof, and so you throw
on 7%, 30 year mortgage rates on that.
And they really, sorry.
Just, uh, I was, I was incorrect.
It was about 116%.
It looks like Bitcoin specifically over a one
year period.
Okay.
Still a great year, right?
But yeah, but I mean, that's, that's, I
(19:32):
mean, that's doubled, you know, so went from,
I think around, I want to say it
was around 44, 45,000 up to 97
or something.
Yeah.
So in any case, um, maybe it's a
good time to trade in your Bitcoin and
buy some, uh, real estate.
Yeah.
(19:52):
So continue with your point about real estate,
the reversion to the mean you were saying,
yes, that's all.
I think I was done with my comments
basically, but I think several factors in addition
to the real estate, uh, the interest rate
on mortgages, the market needed some time to
breathe.
Prices were getting out of hand and people
had handled, you know, done what they were
(20:13):
going to do.
So builders were in full steam.
And whenever that happens, if the market slows
down, builders often get caught with a little
bit of inventory and that slow additional inventory
slows down prices.
So I think it's a normal thing.
Part of the market, part of the reversion
to the mean, just like stocks can't go
up 30% a year forever, 25%
(20:35):
forever, house prices were going up double digits
also for several years.
That just puts people out of range.
And, you know, would be buyers just rest.
You've talked about this before would be buyers
just say, I'm, I can't buy anything, right?
Yeah.
Yeah.
I mean, a lot of, uh, people in
my age group, or at least peers that
I talked to are not even educating the
(20:57):
possibility of buying a home right now, just
feeling like it's prices are too high rates
are too high rates are higher and there's,
you know, there's just not a ton of
options in the market right now where they
look.
I would, um, say that, I mean, what,
what are, uh, interest rates, uh, on mortgages
around 7%, 30, 30 year, around seven, give
(21:18):
or take, depending on credit and all that
kind of stuff, 15, you know, six and
a half.
I don't think that's a historically high.
Um, it's just, we're so used to the
very low, uh, but that makes it challenging.
Um, I would argue are though, it's more
like historically high.
(21:39):
Yeah.
Yeah.
So them coming back or at least the,
the percentage of increase that people catch up,
I saw a statistic last night that the
average age of the first time home buyer
is the highest it's ever been in the
United States and it's 39.
That's very, that's, that's goes right to Russ's
(22:00):
comments though.
I mean, yeah, I bought my first house
at, um, 24.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I think I thought I was overpaying.
It was a hundred thousand dollars.
Nope.
Um, we, uh, I was a similar age.
(22:20):
I think I was a little older, maybe
26 or 27, something like that.
But, um, yeah.
Um, I think it was a little easier.
Uh, well, the, the price was a similar,
it was like 125,000 for when we
bought our first house, uh, same time our
income was nil, of course, but, but it
(22:44):
worked.
The math worked.
You could, you could buy a, it was
a ranch.
We bought a two bedroom ranch and it
was great for us in Plymouth actually.
And, uh, we could afford it.
Yeah.
I don't think it brings you to the
whole thing about student debt and, you know,
the, uh, all, all these variables that go
into health insurance costs and, and so forth,
(23:05):
uh, you know, all these, these related considerations.
Um, but I think, I think it's, you
know, we get back to this notion that,
um, there was a supply, uh, problem, if
you will, in the, uh, housing, um, and.
Prices went up dramatically.
(23:27):
Uh, people didn't want to give up their
low interest rates.
That's going to continue to create a lag
on, um, supply, uh, for a while.
And I think that's probably going to be
the case for a while.
Still supply is so regional though, like in
Florida, where I am, where there's a lot
of building probably, um, the supply is up
because these builders were, you know, I have
(23:49):
staff they're building and three years ago, two
years ago, you couldn't buy a inventory home
because they were so behind the building homes
that people wanted.
Now you can't in certain parts of the
state.
Um, you can buy an inventory home at
a price that was substantially less a couple
of years ago.
So it depends where you are.
If you're in Cape Cod where you gentlemen
(24:11):
are, it's, there's not a lot of building
going on, so that's not impacting the real
estate market, I would think.
That's a good point.
Um, so, I mean, I guess as investors,
you got to be thinking about these kinds
of, uh, back and forth and so forth
was, I think where you were going with
that, Jeff, uh, the, um, the, the pullback
(24:34):
per se or whatever that, you know, prices
seem to have had a little bit of
a decline.
Yeah.
I'm just in my head comparing like you're
often comment about reversion to the mean, and
that's, it's normal markets go up, they go
down.
Um, that's why you have a financial plan.
That's why you review your plan.
That's why you talk to your advisor so
(24:55):
you don't get swept away in whatever sector
that's getting your attention in the temporary situation,
you have a longer term vision and a
plan to get you where you, where you
want to be.
Yeah.
Good point.
Good point.
Um, it does, and it does bring us
to this, uh, bigger question that we, we
won't deal with today, but this, um, you
(25:18):
know, this ongoing challenge as a society that
we face the question of, um, how do
we deal with the fact that.
Uh, there's some inequity, uh, in terms of
people with lesser resources, have lesser ability to
acquire a home as an example, whereas people
who have a wealth have greater ability to
(25:39):
continue to grow their wealth.
Um, and so it really becomes essential for
every investor to every person, you know, to
be thinking in terms of that, they need
to have the ability to be in a
position where they can live below their means,
uh, so that they can accumulate some resources
(25:59):
to be part of the wealth class and
not just part of the wage class, because
if you're only in the wage class, you're
not participating as fully in, uh, the opportunities
of the way our society seems to be
working.
You know, and part of that is the
government, but part of it's you as a
(26:22):
person, I think that's what you're saying, right?
Yeah.
It's partly one has to strive to cultivate
that extra, that little bit, little bit extra
to invest, whether it's in your work plan
or whether it's, uh, you know, like a
401k or whether it's in your own savings
and investment, uh, outside of that, uh, one
thing that's interesting, I will add to our
(26:43):
conversation just before we look to kind of
wind down, uh, was how, uh, ETFs.
We talked about this not long ago that
ETFs have taken on a greater, uh, participation
in, um, the, uh, choice of selection of
how people choose to invest, um, 30%
(27:04):
growth, um, in the use of ETFs last
year, uh, bringing, um, the investment in ETFs
to $10 trillion, uh, last year, um, pretty
significant.
Uh, that's U S E T a U
S based, uh, uh, stock exposure.
And as we talked before, some are a
(27:27):
lot of that money is coming out of
mutual funds, I assume.
Yeah, it is.
And I think, um, it's interesting too, that
we, you know, we talked about this, that
a lot of this tends to be index
based.
Um, I saw some interesting stuff from Jeff
Patak.
We should probably see if we can get
him back.
He was talking about how, um, active managed
who's a morning star, uh, person.
(27:49):
And, um, he was talking about actively managed
how they're not really all that different in
terms of that top heavy exposure, um, to
the, the, the mag, you know, seven or,
um, you know, the top 10 holdings tend
to be a lot of the same heavy
weight that indexes have.
Uh, it's, you know, not as, um, different
(28:12):
that, as you might expect, but it's grown
quite a bit.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Did you see some of this too?
It was a 40% of the mag
seven make up the S and P that's
off the top.
Yeah.
I think it's, I think it's, uh, even,
I think it might even be more, but
I don't remember now, but yeah.
My, and then this was interesting that, uh,
(28:32):
you know, his kind of point was, uh,
you're, you know, if you're thinking active management's
getting you a broader diversification or, uh, it's
not as different as you might envision.
And I think that's maybe an, an important
opportunity for managers to be recognizing or thinking
about if they're really going to provide, um,
active management and, uh, benefit, uh, to maybe
(28:56):
somehow differentiate from the index.
Um, and more, yeah, anyway, interesting stuff.
Uh, when it comes to, um, the year
ahead, lots to think about, um, you know,
whether markets will go up or go down,
you know, the, the issue for most investors
is to be a long-term investor, uh,
(29:17):
we don't know whether markets will go higher
or go lower in a given year.
It's all, you know, prognosticating.
It's just, uh, take it with a grain
of salt.
Really the, the reality is we want to
be invested for the long-term because we
want to participate when markets go up and
we don't know from one moment to the
next, whether we're positioned to go higher or
(29:38):
go lower, we can all have an opinion,
but that doesn't necessarily define what the market
will do.
And, um, I think the big picture is,
uh, you know, we can be modestly tactical
here and there to try to, um, adjust
our allocation, but we might either miss out
or take on too much risk or whatever
may be.
If we try to be too, too, um,
(29:59):
active in that tactical, uh, get me in,
get me out kind of mindset.
So the best thing to do ultimately is
to have a long-term view, find the
allocation that's a good fit, uh, be invested
in that allocation and some modest adjustments, uh,
about what's, which sectors represent opportunity, uh, where,
(30:20):
or where, where there's opportunity within the market,
how to be structured within the market where
you have participation, but, um, you're going to
ultimately benefit, uh, by the longer term directional
movements of, uh, exposure to the market, which
over time, if we expect the economy to
continue to grow, uh, we would expect to
(30:44):
benefit from now, if we find, you know,
that, um, we really do have, as an
example, uh, mass deportation, uh, or dramatic, um,
tariff increases.
Some of the things that people worry about,
uh, in the article, what's been articulated with
the political perspective of, you know, often what
(31:05):
drives a lot of our listeners to have
anxiety.
Um, if those things do actually materialize, then
we want to maybe position a little bit
more defensively to say, oh, how do we,
how do we position for these kinds of
things?
But there's a big difference in rhetoric and
application of policy, right?
So let's, let's see how things develop, see
how things go, because there's also the potential
(31:27):
for, uh, less taxes of, uh, when it
comes to corporate taxes being, you know, low,
low rates extended and less regulation, less regulation,
all these things that would benefit businesses as
well.
So you really have to be a measured
kind of approach and see how we do.
Yeah.
Um, anything to add?
(31:48):
It's going to be another interesting year.
It sure will.
All right.
Well with that, everybody, um, if we can
be a resource to you, as you think
about your own planning, don't hesitate to reach
out that you can connect with us.
Um, and as I said, uh, uh, opportunity
for, uh, uh, financial planning and portfolio management,
(32:10):
we offer a complimentary consultation and would love
to talk to you along the way.
Until next time, everybody keeps striving for something
more.
Thank you for listening to something more with
Chris Boyd.
Call us for help, whether it's for financial
planning or portfolio management, insurance concerns, or those
quality of life issues that make the money
matters matter.
(32:31):
Whatever's on your mind.
Visit us at something more with chrisboyd.com
or call us toll free at 8 6
6 7 7 1 8 9 0 1,
or send us your questions to AMR dash
info at wealthenhancement.com.
You're listening to something more with Chris Boyd,
financial talk show, wealth enhancement, advisory services, and
(32:52):
Jay Christopher Boyd provide investment advice on an
individual basis to clients only proper advice depends
on a complete analysis of all facts and
circumstances.
The information given on this program is general
financial comments and cannot be relied upon as
pertaining to your specific situation.
Wealth Enhancement Group cannot guarantee that using the
information from this show will generate profits or
ensure freedom from loss.
Listeners should consult their own financial advisors or
(33:13):
conduct their own due diligence before making any
financial decisions.
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