Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
With the breaking news at Kamala Harris has chosen Governor
Walls of Minnesota as our running mate. Supposedly, that's what
everybody's reportings. I guess there's no denials, so no official confirmation.
All sources say welcome back. Talking about that. But yesterday,
as you might know if you're listening on the podcast
(00:20):
at a different time, yesterday was Monday, August the fifth,
today's Tuesday, August the sixth, and yesterday was a brutal
day for most people on the stock market and Wall Street,
worst day in several years. Some people call it a correction.
Some people called it the sign of a recession. A
lot of people reading the tea leaves as to what
happened yesterday and where the markets go from here, where
(00:42):
the economy goes from here. Let me welcome into the
program friend of the show, Laman Lewis, Financial Groups, Joshua
Lewis on the hotline. Joshua Lewis, Welcome back to the show, sir.
How are you well?
Speaker 2 (00:52):
Good morning, Jimmy, I'm doing well. Thanks for having me
on this morning.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
Well, I appreciate it. Laman Lewis dot com is the
website you can learn more about Laman Lewis. But real quick, josh,
let's just dive right in what happened yesterday. If you
read the tea leaves, is that the sign of a recession?
Was that just a correction? Are we in for more
of that? More red on Wall Street? What do you think?
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Yeah, so technically not quite a correction yet. I mean
we' well in certain indexes, yes, but not kind of
across the board. Is it indicative of a recession? Not
necessarily so, you know, like you alluded to, the SMP
had the worst day over the last two years, so
yesterday was kind of the culmination of a lot of things.
(01:33):
But we kind of had a little bit of momentum
from the NICHE, which is the Japanese index, which actually
had one of its worst days since nineteen eighty seven
overnight leading into Monday, So I think we picked up
some of that market sentiment there. But we kind of
have a lot of negative news in the headlines and
a lot of that's come out recently. So you get
(01:54):
a big sell off and another you know, major global index,
you're going to feel kind of those waves over the
domestic equities here as well.
Speaker 1 (02:02):
Joshua Lewis LL Lateman Lewis Financials on the Hotline movie
talking about what happened on Wall Street yesterday, the fifth
day of August, that dark Monday for a lot of folks.
Some people say it was reaction also to the jobs
numbers that came out on Friday, in which unemployment has
gone up again. Some people are blaming the Fed for
not lowering interest rates soon enough or raising them too much.
(02:25):
Give me your thoughts. Are those some of the things
that you think contributed to Mondays or yesterday sentiments?
Speaker 2 (02:30):
Oh? Absolutely right when you look at some of the data.
So we got the Federal Reserve minutes last Wednesday, and
then coming on the heels on that on Friday, we
got the jobs report. So if you were following along
with Jerome pal they said they're not going to lower
interest rate, so we're going to, you know, kind of
be in this higher for longer sort of regime. Then
(02:50):
just you know, two short days later, we get the
ADP and the BLS jobs reports that came in well
below expectations. But I think what's most notable is that
unemployment ticked up to just about four point three percent.
So if you look back in May, we were just
shy of four percent, So a little over a quarter
percentage increase there in unemployment I think signals a little
(03:12):
bit of weakness in the economy. Then we jump into
some manufacturing data, so we saw ism, which is that
manufacturing data metric. We've seen a significant contraction there as well.
So if manufacturing is coming down, unemployments going up, and
we're in a higher rate for longer sort of scenario,
all of those things typically point to recessionary type environment.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
Joshua Lewis a Leman Lewis Financial on the hotline talking
about Wall Street yesterday was a very the boards pretty
much were read almost all the way across. What should
we expect them the days ahead, the weeks ahead, will
will things become more optimistic on Wall Street? Or any
prognostication even what today holds.
Speaker 2 (03:57):
Yeah, so even you know, the market just open here,
So when you look at futures, things were moving up.
The Nasdaq was up, you know, about three quarters of
a percent that now is negative when it opened, so
and it's moved back in a positive territory as we
speak now. So we've seen a little bit of that
start to rebound to a certain extent. Obviously, anytime there's
(04:19):
big market dislocations like yesterday, it means that we can
pick up some things on sale, so to speak. But
when you look at kind of the year ahead, right,
we have this wildly volatile geopolitical environment. We've got a
lot of political developments coming up, obviously, and it's an
election year, and market sentiment has sort of tapered off
(04:41):
a little bit. So when you look at you know,
investors sentiment, consumer sentiment, a lot of those things really
drive the economy. I mean GDP in the US about
seventy percent of that's just driven by consumer spinning, right,
so just you and I out in the world spending money.
So if we're concerned about a recession, and we're obviously
going to grip our wallets a little bit tighter. So
(05:04):
I see the FED coming in in the September meeting,
probably lowering rates about a half a percent. But I
don't think we get any big movements until then. I
think we're going to parse through some of you know,
just the data. Look at what happened over the last
you know, couple of weeks. We've seen a bigger flight
to safety, so treasury yields have actually dropped down the
(05:25):
ten years about three eight point nine percent, or was
about four and a quarter percent last week, So obviously
investors are getting a little bit concerned. We've seen, you know,
some bigger valuation companies, the Magnificent seven. A lot of
those guys, you know, got punched in the mouth yesterday.
So we're seeing some of those bigger trades unwined. We've
(05:46):
seen a little bit of rotation, you know, the Trump
trade there where we're talking about small caps energy companies,
infrastructure things like that. That's also started to dwindle off
a little bit too. So I think the market's kind
of looking for one of those bright spots, you know,
they're looking for a little bit of optimism on where
can we go from here to continue making that move higher.
Speaker 1 (06:08):
Now, there's going to be another job's report come out
in early September that's going to be before the Fed meets.
Does Powell run the risk that you know, he's been
real slow and steady is in his own perception and
he says, hey, we're we're not going to be cutting
rates anytime soon. Does he run the risk of panicking
people if he comes back and kind of renegues on
what he said previously and starts cutting the rates. Does
(06:30):
that cause people to say, oh my god, what's he seeing?
And it doesn't have the effect he wants. He said
he's not going to cut the rates necessarily. And if
he rushes out and does that, does that cause people
to panic even further that he's changed his mind.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
Oh, if we had an emergency rate cut, I think
that would be fear and panic in the marketplace, simply
because you know that's going to be a very reactionary thing.
I think the FED there's a lot of fundamental things
I don't agree with with the Fed. They look at
a lot of lag indicators, so a lot of the
data they're looking at to you know, make determinations for
the future is old, you know, old and cold. It's
(07:07):
stale stuff. So I think, you know, they waited too
long to raise rates, and I think they're going to
stick around at the party a little bit too long
and they're probably going to keep rates a little bit
too high. So I think he's got to stay the
course though. And it's like you said, if he comes
back and says, gosh, you know things have changed, well
we're talking about a month or two's time. If they
(07:28):
come out and announce, hey, we're going to cut rates
because we've seen, you know, some significant changes in the
economic landscape that's going to cause people to panic. So
then you're going to get a much larger knee jerk
reaction from a lot of your more retail investors who
really drive a lot of the market too. So yeah, absolutely,
I think they've got to stay the course with this,
(07:49):
otherwise it's going to, you know, potentially blow up in
their face.
Speaker 1 (07:53):
The voice of Joshua Lewis Layman Lewis dot com is
your website, Layman Lewis dot com, Laman Lewis Finanswer Group.
Joshua lowis my guest, Joshua. So in the final thirty
seconds here kind of your prognostication if somebody's if somebody
got burned yesterday, or they're trying to figure out what
they want to do now, any not advice, but any
direction you want to give them. Should they keep playing
(08:16):
ball or take their toys and go home?
Speaker 2 (08:18):
You know what, don't let the panic get to you.
As we always preach at Layman Lewis Financial Group, having
a long term plan. You know that you were going
to stick to. We're going to be disciplined and we're
going to know, Hey, market corrections happen, volatility happens, it's
actually healthy for the market. So you know, look at
where can we find the opportunities in this space, but
(08:38):
again always having that long term written retirement plan so
that we know when these you know, quote unquote unexpected
things happen, we're well prepared to weather those storms.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
Joshua Lewis Layman Lewis dot com. I appreciate you, my friend,
thanks for hopping on the program. Layman Lewis dot com.
Thanks again, that's Joshua Lewis. Go to the website if
you want to get some more information about what they do.
You hear them on the radio show. They've been with
on this program with me for ten years. I mean
they're just they're great friends of the show. But also
some good insights there from Joshua Lewis again, Layman Lewis,
(09:11):
l A Y M A and Layman Lewis dot com
Layman Lewis dot com. And I appreciate josh And I'll
get that interview posted up on the on the website
here just a bit and that way you can go
back and listen to it. Good information there about Wall Street.
There's the music. I got to take a break. Vivey
Rama Swammy says Tim Wallas is a gift to the
Trump campaign. I really don't get the pick. I think personally,
(09:34):
I could be wrong. I'm just I'm surprised. I thought
she'd go with Josh Shapiro. He yeah, Shapiro could be yeah,
he's a I think you would have been much better.
Speaker 2 (09:45):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (09:46):
I'm analyzing it. I'm looking at the responses. Now, everybody
stand by a six hundred K col
With the breaking news at Kamala Harris has chosen Governor
Walls of Minnesota as our running mate. Supposedly, that's what
everybody's reportings. I guess there's no denials, so no official confirmation.
All sources say welcome back. Talking about that. But yesterday,
as you might know if you're listening on the podcast
(00:20):
at a different time, yesterday was Monday, August the fifth,
today's Tuesday, August the sixth, and yesterday was a brutal
day for most people on the stock market and Wall Street,
worst day in several years. Some people call it a correction.
Some people called it the sign of a recession. A
lot of people reading the tea leaves as to what
happened yesterday and where the markets go from here, where
(00:42):
the economy goes from here. Let me welcome into the
program friend of the show, Laman Lewis, Financial Groups, Joshua
Lewis on the hotline. Joshua Lewis, Welcome back to the show, sir.
How are you well?
Speaker 2 (00:52):
Good morning, Jimmy, I'm doing well. Thanks for having me
on this morning.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
Well, I appreciate it. Laman Lewis dot com is the
website you can learn more about Laman Lewis. But real quick, josh,
let's just dive right in what happened yesterday. If you
read the tea leaves, is that the sign of a recession?
Was that just a correction? Are we in for more
of that? More red on Wall Street? What do you think?
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Yeah, so technically not quite a correction yet. I mean
we' well in certain indexes, yes, but not kind of
across the board. Is it indicative of a recession? Not
necessarily so, you know, like you alluded to, the SMP
had the worst day over the last two years, so
yesterday was kind of the culmination of a lot of things.
(01:33):
But we kind of had a little bit of momentum
from the NICHE, which is the Japanese index, which actually
had one of its worst days since nineteen eighty seven
overnight leading into Monday, So I think we picked up
some of that market sentiment there. But we kind of
have a lot of negative news in the headlines and
a lot of that's come out recently. So you get
(01:54):
a big sell off and another you know, major global index,
you're going to feel kind of those waves over the
domestic equities here as well.
Speaker 1 (02:02):
Joshua Lewis LL Lateman Lewis Financials on the Hotline movie
talking about what happened on Wall Street yesterday, the fifth
day of August, that dark Monday for a lot of folks.
Some people say it was reaction also to the jobs
numbers that came out on Friday, in which unemployment has
gone up again. Some people are blaming the Fed for
not lowering interest rates soon enough or raising them too much.
(02:25):
Give me your thoughts. Are those some of the things
that you think contributed to Mondays or yesterday sentiments?
Speaker 2 (02:30):
Oh? Absolutely right when you look at some of the data.
So we got the Federal Reserve minutes last Wednesday, and
then coming on the heels on that on Friday, we
got the jobs report. So if you were following along
with Jerome pal they said they're not going to lower
interest rate, so we're going to, you know, kind of
be in this higher for longer sort of regime. Then
(02:50):
just you know, two short days later, we get the
ADP and the BLS jobs reports that came in well
below expectations. But I think what's most notable is that
unemployment ticked up to just about four point three percent.
So if you look back in May, we were just
shy of four percent, So a little over a quarter
percentage increase there in unemployment I think signals a little
(03:12):
bit of weakness in the economy. Then we jump into
some manufacturing data, so we saw ism, which is that
manufacturing data metric. We've seen a significant contraction there as well.
So if manufacturing is coming down, unemployments going up, and
we're in a higher rate for longer sort of scenario,
all of those things typically point to recessionary type environment.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
Joshua Lewis a Leman Lewis Financial on the hotline talking
about Wall Street yesterday was a very the boards pretty
much were read almost all the way across. What should
we expect them the days ahead, the weeks ahead, will
will things become more optimistic on Wall Street? Or any
prognostication even what today holds.
Speaker 2 (03:57):
Yeah, so even you know, the market just open here,
So when you look at futures, things were moving up.
The Nasdaq was up, you know, about three quarters of
a percent that now is negative when it opened, so
and it's moved back in a positive territory as we
speak now. So we've seen a little bit of that
start to rebound to a certain extent. Obviously, anytime there's
(04:19):
big market dislocations like yesterday, it means that we can
pick up some things on sale, so to speak. But
when you look at kind of the year ahead, right,
we have this wildly volatile geopolitical environment. We've got a
lot of political developments coming up, obviously, and it's an
election year, and market sentiment has sort of tapered off
(04:41):
a little bit. So when you look at you know,
investors sentiment, consumer sentiment, a lot of those things really
drive the economy. I mean GDP in the US about
seventy percent of that's just driven by consumer spinning, right,
so just you and I out in the world spending money.
So if we're concerned about a recession, and we're obviously
going to grip our wallets a little bit tighter. So
(05:04):
I see the FED coming in in the September meeting,
probably lowering rates about a half a percent. But I
don't think we get any big movements until then. I
think we're going to parse through some of you know,
just the data. Look at what happened over the last
you know, couple of weeks. We've seen a bigger flight
to safety, so treasury yields have actually dropped down the
(05:25):
ten years about three eight point nine percent, or was
about four and a quarter percent last week, So obviously
investors are getting a little bit concerned. We've seen, you know,
some bigger valuation companies, the Magnificent seven. A lot of
those guys, you know, got punched in the mouth yesterday.
So we're seeing some of those bigger trades unwined. We've
(05:46):
seen a little bit of rotation, you know, the Trump
trade there where we're talking about small caps energy companies,
infrastructure things like that. That's also started to dwindle off
a little bit too. So I think the market's kind
of looking for one of those bright spots, you know,
they're looking for a little bit of optimism on where
can we go from here to continue making that move higher.
Speaker 1 (06:08):
Now, there's going to be another job's report come out
in early September that's going to be before the Fed meets.
Does Powell run the risk that you know, he's been
real slow and steady is in his own perception and
he says, hey, we're we're not going to be cutting
rates anytime soon. Does he run the risk of panicking
people if he comes back and kind of renegues on
what he said previously and starts cutting the rates. Does
(06:30):
that cause people to say, oh my god, what's he seeing?
And it doesn't have the effect he wants. He said
he's not going to cut the rates necessarily. And if
he rushes out and does that, does that cause people
to panic even further that he's changed his mind.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
Oh, if we had an emergency rate cut, I think
that would be fear and panic in the marketplace, simply
because you know that's going to be a very reactionary thing.
I think the FED there's a lot of fundamental things
I don't agree with with the Fed. They look at
a lot of lag indicators, so a lot of the
data they're looking at to you know, make determinations for
the future is old, you know, old and cold. It's
(07:07):
stale stuff. So I think, you know, they waited too
long to raise rates, and I think they're going to
stick around at the party a little bit too long
and they're probably going to keep rates a little bit
too high. So I think he's got to stay the
course though. And it's like you said, if he comes
back and says, gosh, you know things have changed, well
we're talking about a month or two's time. If they
(07:28):
come out and announce, hey, we're going to cut rates
because we've seen, you know, some significant changes in the
economic landscape that's going to cause people to panic. So
then you're going to get a much larger knee jerk
reaction from a lot of your more retail investors who
really drive a lot of the market too. So yeah, absolutely,
I think they've got to stay the course with this,
(07:49):
otherwise it's going to, you know, potentially blow up in
their face.
Speaker 1 (07:53):
The voice of Joshua Lewis Layman Lewis dot com is
your website, Layman Lewis dot com, Laman Lewis Finanswer Group.
Joshua lowis my guest, Joshua. So in the final thirty
seconds here kind of your prognostication if somebody's if somebody
got burned yesterday, or they're trying to figure out what
they want to do now, any not advice, but any
direction you want to give them. Should they keep playing
(08:16):
ball or take their toys and go home?
Speaker 2 (08:18):
You know what, don't let the panic get to you.
As we always preach at Layman Lewis Financial Group, having
a long term plan. You know that you were going
to stick to. We're going to be disciplined and we're
going to know, Hey, market corrections happen, volatility happens, it's
actually healthy for the market. So you know, look at
where can we find the opportunities in this space, but
(08:38):
again always having that long term written retirement plan so
that we know when these you know, quote unquote unexpected
things happen, we're well prepared to weather those storms.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
Joshua Lewis Layman Lewis dot com. I appreciate you, my friend,
thanks for hopping on the program. Layman Lewis dot com.
Thanks again, that's Joshua Lewis. Go to the website if
you want to get some more information about what they do.
You hear them on the radio show. They've been with
on this program with me for ten years. I mean
they're just they're great friends of the show. But also
some good insights there from Joshua Lewis again, Layman Lewis,
(09:11):
l A Y M A and Layman Lewis dot com
Layman Lewis dot com. And I appreciate josh And I'll
get that interview posted up on the on the website
here just a bit and that way you can go
back and listen to it. Good information there about Wall Street.
There's the music. I got to take a break. Vivey
Rama Swammy says Tim Wallas is a gift to the
Trump campaign. I really don't get the pick. I think personally,
(09:34):
I could be wrong. I'm just I'm surprised. I thought
she'd go with Josh Shapiro. He yeah, Shapiro could be yeah,
he's a I think you would have been much better.
Speaker 2 (09:45):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (09:46):
I'm analyzing it. I'm looking at the responses. Now, everybody
stand by a six hundred K col
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