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July 20, 2024 16 mins

Recent data shows that residential property sales weakened last month, but first home buyers are taking advantage. 

Debbie Roberts joins Tim Beveridge on The Weekend Collective with all the latest in the property market. 

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Speaker 1 (00:05):
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talk SEDB.

Speaker 2 (00:10):
Her tailed show today obviously because of the rugby which
we've just enjoyed the All Blacks win there over Fiji
didn't score quite as many as points as I thought
we would have been. Anyway, just let you know what's
coming up in the next well, it's not the next hour,
it's the next twenty or twenty five minutes or so,
a kurtailed one roof radio show. And following that at
five o'clock we have an extended parents Squad because's not
doing a sports rap today, so it'll be the Parent

(00:31):
Squad with Catherine Burkett talking about how do you deal
with it when your child is being bullied and also
traveling with kids. There's some interesting opinions out there about
letting them just run right, and we'll take your calls
on that, but right now it's the one roof radio show.
By the way, did I say I'm Tim Beverige. Hello, Yes,
I've been away for last weekend. Thanks to thanks to
Tyler for looking off the show last weekend down skiing

(00:53):
in the having a holiday with the family and the
in the White Taki District from the McKenzie district and
absolute god, South Island it's fantastic anyway, joining me not
to discuss that is Debbie Roberts from Property Apprentice. Hi, Debbie,
how are you?

Speaker 3 (01:09):
I'm good? Thanks? How are you too?

Speaker 2 (01:11):
Too bad? You've found of the South Island?

Speaker 3 (01:13):
I love the South Island. It's great.

Speaker 2 (01:16):
It's just so good to get away, isn't it. Now?
What have you been keeping busy with lately with Property Apprentice?

Speaker 3 (01:20):
Well, to be honest, I've just been pretty busy helping clients.

Speaker 2 (01:25):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:25):
Yeah, there's a lot of action in the property at
the moment from what we're seeing.

Speaker 2 (01:31):
Well, actually, let's have a chat about that. And look,
it's going to be a shorter show, so if you
want to jump in and have your say with Debbie
and I, then you can jump on. But the first
thing we're going to kick off with, well, just it's
with making observation that looks like interest rates are about
to drop, by the way, doesn't it. It does feel like
that what inflations down Adriana is probably going to climb

(01:53):
off a scary rhetoric. You're optimistic of an interest rate drop?

Speaker 3 (01:59):
Absolutely, yeah, So all the signs are there. You know,
we've got swap rates the moment mint in the banks
of start passing on some interest rate decreases already. My
opinion is that the bank should have already started reducing
the ocr But I think at the moment they'll be
coppy that the banks are doing that job for them,

(02:19):
means that they can say we did our job. We
kept it high until the data backed it up, that
we were back with in range. But you know, one
of the issues that we've got is that we only
get the inflation data once every quarter. We're one of
the only countries in the world that does that. You know,
lots of other countries get monthly data. So kind of

(02:40):
by the time we get the results, it's already old
information that they're working with.

Speaker 2 (02:46):
Because the core logic data data, data, data, data, data.
I think, I don't know, what do you say, data
or data. It's not the big issue of the day.

Speaker 3 (02:57):
Data.

Speaker 2 (02:58):
Yeah, yeah, we can. We can take calls on that.

Speaker 3 (03:03):
You kept out. Tim. I'm not sure if you can
hear me. Okay, actually I might get you sound for me.

Speaker 2 (03:10):
Okay, I might get you to maybe turn off your video.
We're down the line with Debbie on Zoom.

Speaker 3 (03:14):
So that's anything.

Speaker 2 (03:16):
Okay, Well, I might just get We're just going to
take a moment to get Debbie to sort out at
the connection there. I think probably it's just a speeder.
She will get Debet to switch off her video camera
so we can actually hear her, because I think sometimes
it can be a bit of a skip with the
quality of what we're hearing. Can you hear me better now, Debbie?
Is that better?

Speaker 3 (03:35):
I can Yep. That definitely sounds better. Okay, so maybe
needs be a little bit today.

Speaker 2 (03:40):
Well, oh my goodness, the whole money thing yesterday, that's
a completely different issue. But that everything getting shut down
and makes me think I need to go and get
some cash. But anyways, speaking about property, so the core
Logic data shows residential property sales of weekend in June,
ending a thirteen month growth streak. First time by I
was taking advantage of relatively low prices and increased housing stock. Look,

(04:04):
a lot of this is reck I reckon, but it
does feel I have the sense that regret that people
might need to adjust their expectations as to what's going
to happen regarding the growth of the property market. If
you're suddenly thinking all intrast rate's going to you know,
are going to make it possibly more easy for me

(04:25):
to get into the market now. But do you what
are you what are your what's your take on things?

Speaker 3 (04:31):
So, are you talking about capital growth like Peppers.

Speaker 2 (04:34):
Just the softening of the market. What's going to happen
with the with the you know, the growth of the
prices and things like that, and and whether it's a
different slightly different game we're going to see for the
next year two or three, the.

Speaker 3 (04:46):
Spect that we will see a bit of a different
game for the next year or so. I'm certainly not
expecting house prices to increase significantly in the next couple
of months. But you know, like I said, we're certainly
seeing increased activity and property market. Just about every more
good advice i'm talking to at the moment says that

(05:06):
they're flat out. We've certainly got an increase in the
number of clients that are actively looking for property. At
the moment too, I think buyers are still being very
cautious in the market, you know, so there's plenty of choice,
like the listings well stock, the amount of properties on
the property market, it's twenty percent higher this year than

(05:29):
the same time last year, and I think this is great.
You know, first time buyers are at near record highs
nationwide at twenty percent, you know, making up twenty six
percent of the market buyers. And like we think it was.
Last time I was on, we talked about first time buyers.
First time buyers often don't really care about what the
property market's doing. It's just whether or not they can

(05:52):
get ending and can they afford to pay the mortgage
on the type of property that they're looking at purchasing.

Speaker 2 (05:58):
That is an interesting that's an interesting point. Tell you what,
we'll pick that up after the breaks. We're just going
to head to break now it is twenty minutes to five.
What's your take if you're listening right now and you've
I admit you're probably coming down off the high watching
the All Blacks. But now we can get stuck and
to talk about the exciting prospect maybe interest rates dropping,
what it's going to mean for the market. We want
your calls on eight hundred eighty ten and eighty text

(06:18):
nine two ninety two. It's coming up to nineteen minutes
to five. Newstalks hed b. Yes, welcome back to the
one Rufradio show. I'm Tim beverage, and my guest is
Debbie Roberts from Property Apprentice. Actually, Debbie, before we go on,
how do people get in touch with you? If they're
curious about finding more about Property Apprentice, Our best way
to get.

Speaker 3 (06:36):
In touch with us is through the website, So Property
Apprentice dot coda ends it look a meeting or a
phone call with my husband Paul through the website, or
they can come to one of our free events.

Speaker 2 (06:47):
Fantastic. Hey, now you'll be pleased that the first text
that came in was around the word data. It says
data as key, we data as American, So apparently both
are acceptable. Okay, so there we go. We've resolved that hot.
We've resolved that one hot off the press. The other
person says, in your response to first home buyers, I
thought that was an interesting comment you made in which

(07:09):
I agree with you. Know, you said first time buyers
don't care about the markets so much. Well you didn't
even say so much, but let's just I've added that
qualification because I guess when I was buying, I sort
of cared about the market, but what I really cared
about is simply can I afford to buy? And that
full stop can I buy.

Speaker 3 (07:28):
Yep, exactly, and we were the same, and lots of
other first time buyers are. You know, we've got probably
the majority of first home buyers and the current mark
paid too much attention to what the market was doing
prior to now had a house deposit.

Speaker 2 (07:46):
So we just lost that last sentence you said that. Sorry,
can you repeat yourself? You just dropped out part way through?

Speaker 3 (07:53):
Sorry, Yeah, I said. A lot of the first home
buyers in the market would have never They've never paid
much attention to the property market because it was irrelevant
to them until they had a sizeable deport that they
could actually take action and purchase something.

Speaker 2 (08:08):
Yeah. There's another one says that first home buyers should
care about what happens as there is a good chance
that if they purchased a house earlier this year, they
most likely have lost half their equity buy Now, is
it a fair comment or is it like, so, what
you're in a house, you're paying for it and it's
only going to eventually go up.

Speaker 3 (08:25):
Exactly. I think you know, when it comes to property investing,
we do get if we do get fluctuations in market values,
and as long as you're not planning on selling in
the short term, it really doesn't matter what the property
market does, because you know, you only lose money in
property if you sell it for less than you've paid
for it.

Speaker 2 (08:44):
Okay, actually getting a lot of texts here, another one
the first home market home. We're going to rip through
them because of times short the first home buyer market
has collapsed. Now the first home buyer grant has been
pulled in Palmerston North. Their homes for sale in the
four hundreds that people paid in the six hundreds four
in twenty twenty one. Well that was in that crazy period,
wasn't it. But what's your take on that?

Speaker 3 (09:05):
My take on that is that the first home first
home buyer market absolutely has not collapsed. We're at near
record highs nationwide with twenty six percent of the buyers
in the market being first home buyers for last month.
So you know, what we are seeing is that there
are less sales than the same time last year, but

(09:26):
the property market values are actually holding up pretty well.
So things have been relatively flat since the thirty first
of January last year, when median values at that time
nationwide were seven sixty five. Now at the end of
June there's seven seventy, so the market's been pretty flat,
but it's you know, there's green shoots there. So the

(09:48):
values have been holding even though there have been a
lot of a lot more listings and less buio activity.

Speaker 2 (09:57):
What do we know about I can't remember when I
read this, might have only been a week or two ago.
About there are people who've got their properties for sale,
and there are people who want to buy, and there's
the ones who want to buy waiting for those people
to drop their price. But the people who are wanting
to sell are going, well, hang on, no, I'm not
going to drop my price, and there's a bit of
a I think that's is that part of the reason
why the turnover hasn't been so good, because while there

(10:18):
are properties for sale, there's hasn't been the opportunity to
really get those two heads on the same page.

Speaker 3 (10:24):
Yeah, I think the level of buyer motivation is quite
low because no one's worried that they're going to miss
out because there are so many properties on the market.
So I think buyers at the moment are being quite picky,
and certainly the property investors that are active in the market,
they're looking for the deals, you know, so they're willing
to take their time with negotiations and wait until the

(10:47):
vendor meets their price point. So you know, it's a
difficult time of the market to be selling, but it's
a great time to be buying. It's literally called a
buyer's market for that reason.

Speaker 2 (10:59):
We're going to explore but that more of that in
just a moment, we'll be back in a tick. This
is the one Roof Radio show. It's eleven and a
half minutes to five. News Talks. B Yes, welcome back
to the one rufradio show. No Property of the weekless
week because of a curtailed hour, So are we're going
to continue chatting with Debbie Roberts from Property Apprentice. Hey, Debbie,
the question I think that people all have is we've

(11:19):
had this, We've can seen some movement with the banks
on their interest rates because then the inflation figures came
out and it's good news on better news on inflation.
Should I say, how are people destined to be a
bit disappointed that if there is an announcement by the
Reserve Bank next time they you know, with dropping the

(11:41):
cash rate, that the commercial banks have already seen it coming.
So don't get you don't get your hopes up or
so is now the time to strike a couple of
questions in there? A bit convoluted, but where you go.

Speaker 3 (11:51):
So my thoughts on thatta that the Reserve banks sooner
or later are going to drop the OCR and that
will certainly make a big impact on what interest rates
are like. But at the moment, the money markets are
factoring in the fact that they think that the Reserve
Bank's going to drop the OCR. So that's where those
swap rates come in. So the banks are all reducing
their interest rates as we speak. You know, we're certainly

(12:14):
seeing them come through. I am not expecting the Reserve
Bank to reduce the OCR with their next announcement, which
is scheduled for the fourteenth of August. That's a monetary
policy statement, so we certainly clear all.

Speaker 2 (12:33):
Okay, we unfortunately December just you're going to have to
repeat yourself again. I don't know what's happening with that connection.
I'm really sorry. But so you're going to you're not expected,
you're not expecting.

Speaker 3 (12:45):
Up with the internet.

Speaker 2 (12:46):
Ah, well, you know, so there you go.

Speaker 3 (12:51):
So I was just going to say the next OCR
announcement is the fourteenth of August, but we don't get
the next GDP results, which tell us how the economy
is performing, until the nineteenth of September, so nobody's expecting
those results to be found. But I don't expect the
reserve being to reduce in fourteen the August, although I
think they should.

Speaker 2 (13:12):
Which makes me think it might be what like the
Warrior the Warriors, you know, as a sports team, we
expect to win and then they lose, and we expect
to lose and then they win. So maybe they might
surprise us.

Speaker 3 (13:21):
They might surprise us. They're talking a big game at
the moment, that's for sure. But yeah, I think it's
time for the interest rates to come down, so it's
good to see that the banks are passing those reductions
across already.

Speaker 2 (13:33):
Yeah. Here's just a quick question from someone I just
fixed hib I just refixed my mortgage for eighteen months,
but having regrets it's been a week. Can I refix
it for twelve months instead, since it's the same ride
as I'm on for the next eighteen months, or will
I own curb break fees?

Speaker 3 (13:47):
You may not incurb break fees. Have a chat with
your mortgage advisor and get them to find out for you,
because they can always find out whether there's any break
fees to pay. I certainly wouldn't be panicking about reducing,
you know, like refixing your interest rates at the moment,
and I certainly be looking at fixing long term. But

(14:08):
at the end of the day, interest rates are likely
to come down before the end of this year.

Speaker 2 (14:13):
Yeah, I do hope Old Tana Mahuto does give us
a bit of a break, soerther than later, because isn't
it funny? You know, we can argue about tax cuts
and all these sorts of things which might give you
an extra twenty bucks a week, but the person who
is the most power over us is actually with money,
is Old Adrian Or really, isn't it If he shifts
rates by zero point twenty five or half a percent,
that can mean a huge amount of money for some people,

(14:35):
can't it.

Speaker 3 (14:36):
It can make a massive difference. Yeah, And certainly, you know,
households have been feeling the pain with the increased interest
rates on their mortgages. So one of the downsides about
the OCR reducing is that we're going to get lower
interest rates in our savings accounts. So you know, hey, ocky,
mortgage that's for sure.

Speaker 2 (14:55):
Well that's why we had an interesting discussion in a
week or so on them Smart Money about the bond market.
But anyway, hey, look, time flies. Time doesn't only fly
when you're having fun, Debby, it flies when you've got
a slightly shorter our to see the rugby. But hey,
thanks so much for joining us, and people can go
to Property Apprentice dot co, dot en z yep. Excellent, excellent,
and I will look forward to chatting again very soon.

(15:18):
Enjoy the rest of the day. Chairs. That is Debbie Roberts.
Thanks Debbie. That is Debbie Roberts from Property Apprentice, and
that is our one roof radio show. We're going to
come back with Katherine Burkett for the Parents Squad talking
about just traveling with the kids and bullying. But there
was an influencer recently. There's a subject of some debate
when this influencer said that the solution to this is it,

(15:41):
the solution to getting through an airport with kids is
to allow them to lead the way. I think sounds
bloody crazy, doesn't it. Mind. I've seen a little bit
of that. I was actually wondering if this influencer actually
had kids. But we'll dig into that a bit more,
among other things. Katherine Burkett joins us after the news.
It's coming up to three minutes to five News Talk SEDB.

Speaker 1 (16:02):
For more from the weekend collective, listen live and Youth
Talk zeb weekends from three pm, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio.
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