October 19, 2024 • 41 mins
The latest interest rate was announced this week - 2.2%, the lowest in 3.5 years.
Property commentator Ashley Church joins Tim Beveridge to discuss the impact property has on inflation rates.
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks
Bold the next Wow, then.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
It's once again.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
Great and welcome back to the show. Is the One
Roof radio show on the Weekend Collective. By the way,
if you miss any of the previous hours or the
subsequent hours, you can go and check out our podcast
for the Weekend Collective and away you go. And this
is by the way, if you missed the panel, it
was Irene Gardner and Shane to Poe. We covered a
lot of fun topics and some great conversations, so go
(00:55):
and check that out as if you've missed the previous hour.
But right now it's the One Roof Radio show. And
my guest is Well he's a property expert and property commentator.
He's been doing it for a wee while now it's
certainly been in the property game for also quite a
while and also on the show for a while. His
name is Ashley Church. Ashley, how are you going?
Speaker 2 (01:11):
I'm going a good tim I'm still buzzing from the
cup races this morning.
Speaker 3 (01:15):
Ah. Yes, I love.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
It the same, same, same, and and it was great
that we actually dropped a couple of races. I think
because it just heightened the the tension a couple of notches,
which was which is a good thing.
Speaker 4 (01:30):
You know.
Speaker 3 (01:30):
The other thing about it is that we actually just
sailed better. You know, you don't get a kilometer ahead
based on just boat speed. I think that the boats
are actually very very close. But we we picked the wind,
you know. I think that Berlin said it was like
sailing off Takapuna and.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
You and you know what, I love with with without
any wanted to draw disparagus upon anybody else. I just
love the calmness and the humility of Berlin and the
rest of the team. You know. Berlin a few days
ago was advised by media that he had seeded Spittles
as the greatest America's Cup skipper in terms of one time.
Speaker 3 (02:10):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
I think yeah, And I think he said something like,
oh that's cool. Wasn't it a great race?
Speaker 3 (02:16):
It's probably quite a studied it's quite a studied modesty.
You have to be ready and it's a fault default setting.
But yeah, no, I'm right into it. And I think, well,
I don't know. I think apparently the wind's going to
be at light the next day too, but we'll be
catching with our sports.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
You know if it's not tomorrow, it'll be the next.
Speaker 3 (02:32):
Day indeed, indeed, right, and how have you been good?
Speaker 2 (02:38):
I have been good. I had a very quick trip
overseas a couple of weeks back, which was unexpected, and yeah,
so that was all good. And no thing's been great.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
Right, let's get into it, shall we. Inflation numbers. Now,
inflation is way down from what we've seen as its peak.
It's the lowest and three and a half years down
to down from three point three to two point two percent.
And I guess the question that popped straight into my
mind is what it really means for the property market,
because I think when everyone decides to buy, then obviously
(03:10):
you're too late in terms of getting into it. But
what is it actually How do these inflation numbers impact property?
Both in terms of your predictions but based on what
you've observed over the years, what do you what do
you make of it?
Speaker 2 (03:23):
If the question is how does inflation affect the property market,
it's kind of the wrong question. It's almost the wrong
way around because because the latter.
Speaker 3 (03:30):
Is actually more how does property inflicting infectation?
Speaker 2 (03:33):
And there's a good reason for that. So in general terms,
in general terms, inflation actually doesn't affect the property market
other than obviously when when house prices are going up,
then that's a form of inflation in itself, but it
doesn't affect the overall inflation figures to the extent that
you might think it would. But what effects inflation when
it comes to the property market, and indeed the overall
market is the role that the Reserve Bank plays. So
(03:57):
your mate, mate, yeah, my ma had or old Adrian, you're.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
Going to be sending you a Christmas card. Sorry for
bagging you're so much age.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
I'm not, but I do feel Look, he was exceptional
as the CEO or whatever his role was with the
super fund. He you know, to the extent that that
fund's been successful over the last few years it's has
doing so I don't want to take that away from him,
but wholly unsuitable in this new role, or not all
that new now anyway. So when inflation goes up, such
(04:31):
as it has over the last two or three years
as a result of the Reserve Bank increasing the ocr
that's an artificial phenomenon and it's caused by the Reserve
Bank deliberately wanting to push inflation up so as to
suppress demand within the market, and that has an impact
on the housing market because when they do that pushes
up mortgage interest rates in fact to pushes up interest
rates overall within the market. Conversely, when we get to
(04:55):
the point we're at at the moment where they've overshot
that market, it's almost become too extreme and they start
bringing it down again, that brings mortgage interest rates down,
and so as a resul all of that, house prices
will go up. And that's that's just a given. That's
that's there's there's no I don't think there's any serious
question of that. Now. As the cost of money reduces,
the how the cost of housing goes up, and then
(05:16):
it will. So it's that they're not a direct relationship,
and that one doesn't immediately follow the other, but it
does follow it. So at some stage over the next
two or three years, you'll start to see first a
gradule and then quite a rapid rise inhouse prices as
a result of the cost of money coming down.
Speaker 3 (05:30):
We want your calls on this. Now that the new
inflation data is in and it's now down to within
the band which the Reserve Bank targeted between one and
three percent. What what are your plans with regards to property?
Is now the time to buy? Because the other question
is Ashley, this is probably something I've got from you,
not that I've actually done it. That is, I know
(05:57):
tell me, But well, I think it might have been
you who said that now is all that and now
was always the time to buy. If the equation makes
sense broadly speaking as a theme, is that you that
said that?
Speaker 2 (06:13):
It is me? And so it's interesting. So because when
I say that, I say that in the context of
people purchasing propercy, whether they're buying it to live in
or as investment property for the long haul. So if
you're buying property for a long time, you know, five
or ten, fifteen, twenty twenty five years, even if you're
buying and selling that property within that period of time,
(06:34):
then then when you buy it is relatively insignificant because
it will continue going up by quite significant amounts over
that period of time. If if somebody, you know, somebody
could probably legitimately come back to me and say, hey, well,
two years ago you were saying now is a good
time to buy property, and it dropped away a little
bit more in value. Therefore you were wrong if you
were looking in a very tight time frame like that
(06:54):
on the basis that you were expecting to get in
and out of the market quickly. Yeah, you could probably
criticize it, but that's never the way I mean it.
I always mean it in the context that when if
you buy in their in ten years to it's going
to be worth something approaching twice what you paid for it.
Who cares if you lost ten percent in the early
stages of that purchase.
Speaker 3 (07:11):
Yeah, because I think that that's probably one been one
of the things that stops some people is they're thinking,
let me try and predict the bottom of the cycle,
because I want to get a bargain and otherwise I'm
not going to buy. But the point being is that, look,
just get in and if you're playing a long game.
What is a long game these days? And property probably.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Oh ten years, ten years or more. I mean, but
if it's a house, if it's your own home, then
you are going once you buy a home, it's unlikely
that you're not going to buy a home for the
remainder of your life own a home, sorry, for the
remainder of your life. You might own several homes over
that time, but once you've started that journey. That journey
is going to continue. Very few people buy a home
and then don't have one at some stage later in life.
(07:49):
They just continue upgrading it over the course of their lifetime.
Speaker 3 (07:52):
I guess the thing would be how much because the
property market really did go through the roof and it's
been tailing off or going flat. Yeah, that was down
to Adrian or as well, wasn't it cheap money? Cheap money,
cheap money? But what does it mean in terms of
where's the market at, in terms of any adjustment that
needs to make, And.
Speaker 2 (08:13):
It's pretty much done, so you know. I mean, and
it's interesting because when you talk about the market, there
is and I'm as guilty of this as anybody, but
there is no one market. There are parts of the
country where it has price Yeah, well there's more than several.
There's probably twenty or thirty to be honest. And there
are some parts of the country where house prices really
weren't affected all that much. And there's others where Wellington,
for example, where they dropped as much as twenty percent.
(08:35):
So it really depends on where you are. But I
think regardless of that equation, it's fair to say that
it's pretty. It bottomed out about six to nine months ago.
It's been sitting taper, you know. I know I saw
something from core logical or real est attitude to somebody
a few days ago saying it had dropped half a percent.
Those numbers are meaningless in the context of the overall markets. Overall,
(08:56):
it's stable and it will soon start going up.
Speaker 3 (08:59):
What would be the signs that it's going to start
to move?
Speaker 5 (09:01):
Is it? Oh?
Speaker 2 (09:03):
That started? They started nine months ago. The first of
them was that the So the first sign, if you
want for it as an empirical sign, was that the
Reserve Bank stopped increasing the ocr That was that had
stopped at five percent I think nine or ten months ago.
So that was that was signed number one because that
gave people confidence that they weren't going to have more pain.
And then all that were really doing was waiting for
interest rates to start coming down. And we know now
(09:24):
that started happening and that will that will accelerate over
the next twelve months. Is a reserve bank six to
remedy the era that it's made with the market?
Speaker 3 (09:31):
What do you again, where we sort of by the
way we want your cause I might not have mentioned
that at the start, my apologies eight hundred eighty ten
and eighty text nine two nine two. You've heard the
inflation numbers. They're down from the sort of frightening highs
that they were now to about two point two percent
the last and three and a half years. I think,
So I want to hear from you eight hundred eighty
ten and eighty what does that? What did that have
(09:54):
on your investment decisions in the property market, whether it
be investing as a literally an investor, or investing is
in the broader sense of investing in your own future
by having your own Yeah, eight hundred eighty I guess
the next question is that people are going to be
thinking about is how far mortgage rates will fall. Because
(10:17):
I've heard predictions as much as they could should or
could go more than a point down, more than one
hundred bas.
Speaker 2 (10:25):
I've been consistently saying, in fact, I think I've been
saying to you, amongst others, I've been consistently saying that
they'll settle it about four and a half percent, you know,
sort of one or two year rates. And the reason
I've said that is because that's the long run average
about the last twenty years. But I'll tell you what,
looking looking at what's been happening over the last couple
of months and looking at where the trajectory seems to go,
(10:47):
might even go lower than that, but it could take
a year lower than what lower than four and a half?
Speaker 3 (10:53):
What is what is the optimen for you? I mean, again,
that's all subjective stuff.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
Isn't the optim the optimus where they were in twenty
twenty one, but that's not going to happen again.
Speaker 3 (11:04):
Well, Actually, that's an interesting point because is it really
an optimum? Because it might be if interest rates are cheap,
it means if you own property and you're looking to
sell it, property prices are going to go through the roof.
But in terms of an equilibrium between buyers and sellers
and people being able to afford to get in and
the amount of cash that's held up in it, I
don't know if that felt optimum to me.
Speaker 2 (11:25):
Seriously, that statement presupposes a lot of stuff.
Speaker 3 (11:28):
Yeah, of course, I haven't thought it out too carefully.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
Presupposes, for example, that there's some ideal price at which
property should sell, and you know, if that exists, it
certainly hasn't existed in this country for the last forty years.
And it also presupposes that somehow house price inflation is bad,
and that's just a proposition. I would absolutely argue house
price inflation has been extraordinarily good for this country over
the last forty years. And the only caveat to that
(11:52):
would be if somebody said to me, yes, that's fine
for you, but poor old first home buyers have missed out,
except the evidence demonstrates that they haven't. For the last
one hundred years, house price ownership in this country has
stayed stubbornly out of a ridge of about sixty five percent.
So the only reason you would argue against house price
inflation isn't born out.
Speaker 3 (12:12):
Okay, I've got an argument that I think is not
a bad one, and that is I think that house
prices should always be such that you could anticipate paying
off the principle in the course of you know, twenty
twenty five years or whatever. And if it gets because
(12:35):
of house prices went bonkers, and I know you're, you know,
the free market thing, you'd be while these things always
have a way of balancing out. I think the idea
that you would never pay off your loan because money
is so cheap that it's that you're sort of a
tenant in a way, you know what I mean. Imagine
if interest rates were one percent and house right rats
went through the roof, there'd be people buying houses who
would never imagine they could ever ever pay it off.
Speaker 2 (12:59):
Let me so, let me give two answers to there.
Speaker 3 (13:00):
And that's not a bad crack.
Speaker 2 (13:03):
Come on, give me some Let me give two answers
to it. Firstly, firstly, let's assume that was true. The
cost of owning a home, if you take account of
average house prices, average mortgage rates, and average salaries, has
actually been reducing over the last thirty five years. It's
got lower, not higher, So that equation has got moved
in favor of first home buyers, not against them. But
(13:26):
more importantly, let's say we agreed that that was actually
something that we should do. Tim how would you do it?
Speaker 3 (13:32):
I'm not saying I'm trying to manipulate it.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
How would you do?
Speaker 6 (13:35):
Well?
Speaker 3 (13:35):
No, what I'm well, I'm just saying that that's an
argument against ridiculously cheap money, because it might. I know,
the market has a way of finding it's some sort
of equilibrium where there's a balance in the end By.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
The way, Remember that when the reserve banks moving down
the cost of money, it's not doing it in difference
to the property market. It's doing it to the overall economy.
So when it's pushing the cost of money up or
them cost of money down, it's looking at the overall
economy and the impact of high or low inflation on
the economy overall. It's not looking at the market and saying, Okay,
now it's time to raise house prices for homeowners. That's
not their rationale.
Speaker 3 (14:07):
Okay, well, look we want your calls. I eight hundred
eighty ten eighty inflation numbers are released this week. They're
down from three point three to two point two percent.
There's calls on the Reserve Bank, on sorry, the Reserve
Bank governor, to keep pushing the cash rate down. So
is now the time to buy? Is this something which
makes you think, you know what? I better dust off
my calculator on my spreadsheet and have a think about
(14:30):
how much I can borrow and how much I'm prepared
to pay on what my plan is. I eight hundred
eighty ten and eighty text nine to nine two. My
guest is Ashley Church will be back in just a moment,
news talks, he'd be news talks, he'd be yes. My
Tim Beverage, My guest is Ashley Church. We're asking well
inflations now within the band? Does it mean for the
property to market and is now the time to buy
or at least start thinking about it? I eight hundred
(14:51):
and eighty ten and eighty Mark, Hello, Yeah.
Speaker 7 (14:54):
I think guys going good goods. You question, yeah, just
sort of goes to your prediction or your sort of
there on the house process something over every sort of
ten years. Actually, do you think that's likely to continue
in future?
Speaker 2 (15:12):
No, that's a good question, mart, So the answer is yes,
but slower. It's interesting. I did some numbers on this
a couple of years back. I've been doing presentation on it,
and it demonstrates because that's because that's a mantra. It's
a mantra that property investors have that property is going
to double in value. So I actually had a look
and it bears out absolutely in eighty nineteen ninety to
two thousand and two thousand to twenty ten, but in
(15:33):
twenty ten to as it happens twenty twenty one, it
actually took twelve years. It actually took a little bit longer,
and I suspect that's simply a feature of the fact
that house prices are more expensive now. So if you
extrapolate that out, my prediction is that it's going to
take a little bit longer each decade. So the next
decade it might take thirteen or fourteen years to double
rather than ten, but they will still double eventually.
Speaker 7 (15:54):
Do you think that you'll get to a stage where
that will not be the case because people wont.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
In term, might be alive when that happens. That'll be
sometime in two thousand two and sixties, and that'll be
you know, and.
Speaker 3 (16:06):
I'm planning on still being alive there, Thanks very much.
Speaker 8 (16:09):
Sorry.
Speaker 2 (16:09):
I should have thought it will happen so gradually we
won't notice it.
Speaker 7 (16:14):
All right, No, good, good things.
Speaker 3 (16:17):
Why does that mark? Why do you ask? Is this
because you're thinking of dipping into the game or oh no, you.
Speaker 7 (16:23):
Are already am. And from my experience particularly, it's kind
of over last. I've been in the game for the
last sort of fifteen twenty years, so, but you're just
in terms of looking at where it's likely to go
for our children in the future, and with with incomes
(16:44):
not increasing to the extent, it sort of will get
to a stage and my thinking where it will be
unachievable for people, you know, keeping righting the question of how.
Speaker 3 (16:54):
Long theyre and from a common sense mathematical point of view,
exponential growth is not sustainable because you know, you know,
when you keep doubling, it just becomes so like.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
Words say, well, yeah, there we go.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
I think you'd like you'd know that word, wouldn't she
beat You would have been used to some exponential growth
growth in your own property, would have told you how
you would have said, what's the word for that? Every
time it doubles? And what's what's the word for that?
And your account it would have said, Ashley, you're enjoying
exponential growth, and you would have filed that away.
Speaker 2 (17:25):
He thinks it was good cool man.
Speaker 3 (17:27):
Sorry, it's just been a bit of a smart ass there,
but here we go.
Speaker 9 (17:30):
Fletcher, Hello, good afternoon. I just caught your remark actually
before the ad break, that the cost of owning a
home relative to income has decreased. I was really encouraged
to hear that given last week in the smoker room
we were complaining that compared to our parents generation, house
(17:54):
prices have increased relative to our parents' income. Could you
help run me through that?
Speaker 2 (18:00):
Indeed, and thanks for asking that. So he's wrong, So
that's wrong. Mike Peru said, yeah, actually you mean Mike Perro.
You know what he's wrong in this I actually rate Mike,
but he's wrong in this case. Let me let me
explain why. Now, to be fair, let me put a
cave in on that. I'm basing this on ware house
prices and interest rates and average incomes got to in
(18:21):
the mid eighties. So in the mid eighties, if you
took the average household income and the average household price,
and where what interest rates were tracking at, which is
about twenty one percent in the mid eighties, then the
cost of servicing a mortgage based on those three figures
was about fifty five percent of income, sorry, fifty two
(18:43):
percent of income. In other words, it took fifty two
percent you take home and come to actually service that mortgage.
Because and this is the media always missing out, because
it doesn't suit their argument because over the intervening thirty
five or forty years, interest rates came down from that
twenty one percent, even though house prices increased, and even
though interest even though wages didn't go up at the
same rate. By two twenty and eighteen, twenty and nineteen,
(19:07):
it was taking thirty five percent of the household income
to service the same mortgage on the If you talk
the averages, it's still in twenty eighteen average household income,
average households price, and cost of interest at that stage.
So what that tells us is you don't look at
the headline numbers, look at the overall impact on a household.
It dropped from fifty two percent to thirty five percent now.
(19:27):
To be fear that will have gone up again over
the last few years, certainly in twenty twenty one, but
it still hasn't got as high as that fifty two
percent in the mid eighties. So it's definitely cheaper for
people buying a house now than it was for the appearance.
Speaker 9 (19:41):
Excellent, thank you, I appreciate.
Speaker 3 (19:43):
Right good on your thanks for e scher even in
that you know the twenty percent hard and how long?
How long do we have that twenty percent interest rates?
You know that ridiculous time.
Speaker 2 (19:52):
Was early came slowly, it came down. I think they
were still quok quite high by the early early to
mid nineties. They slowly came down I think we got
down to about sort of five and a half percent
by toward the end of the nineties, but prior to that,
it took a long time for them to come down.
And because we were doing the same thing we're doing now,
we were trying to get rapid inslation under control.
Speaker 3 (20:08):
Because I remember talking to an old, older friend who
said she bought her house in North Shore or something
about one hundred and eighty thousand dollars, and I said, like,
what a bargain, And she said, well, my interest rate
was twenty percent. And I was thinking back then how
much her payments were compared to the median wage, and
that was a blooming fortune.
Speaker 2 (20:26):
It's interesting because whenever the media focus on this particular topic,
as they do periodically, they always leave out that third
part of the equation, the interest rates, because that doesn't
suit the argument.
Speaker 3 (20:35):
Yes, that's just that's you getting active and political then too,
actually when it gets your hackles up. But those cheap,
those cheap statistical half shots, ay, aren't they When people
can't here anyway? Right, let's carry on. We've got plenty
of calls to get to Steve.
Speaker 10 (20:52):
Hello, Steve, Yeah, yeah, I can't recall those high interest
rates hanging around for long, you know, that's the thing.
Everyone talks about them as though they were there for
a lot, but they didn't seem to peak, and then
it came down pretty quick. But also the cost of
living wasn't as high. It wasn't cost of living wasn't
(21:12):
as high with everything else, was it, you know, all
the non tradable I mean, electricity relative to income or
all the other food relative income was it was a
lot cheaper.
Speaker 2 (21:23):
You missing you're missing state now, yeah, yeah, you're missing
the point though, Steve. It's it's what was it costing
to service a mortgage relative to the over to total
house price and total household income, and it was fifty
two percent. So that other stuff doesn't matter. It doesn't
matter whether the cost of living was half what it
was now, it's what was the what was the cost
of servicing a mortgage? And it's dropped from fifty two
(21:44):
to as I say, in twenty eighteen, about thirty five,
So those other figures aren't relevant. What matters is what
proportion of your income it took to service your mortgage
and that's dropped that.
Speaker 10 (21:55):
Yeah, you have to take all that into account anyway.
But Look, there are a whole lot of other factors,
other interest rates that are going to affect the property
price is going forward, right, And you're missing those points.
You know. It's all this and interest rates you're missing.
You're missing a couple important points, mate, Resource Management Act
changes right, lower birth rates, the Unitary Plan, high density
housing which means more supply, foreign investors can't buy here, right.
(22:20):
And then you've got you know, very very low im
migration levels, which I think are the probably most important
thing with the country's never done well economically without a
lot of people coming in the door, right, like one
hundred thousand a year into Auckland. Yes, that gets things pumping,
but we're not going to we're not seeing that now.
(22:41):
There might be more people leaving next year than coming
into the country. Okay, so let me have a huge impact.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
So let me answer. So with all your respect, I'm
not missing any of those And if you've listened to
me over the last few years, you'll know that probably
seven or eight years ago, I would have agreed with
you that those things were big factors. I've come based
on data, and I talk about a lot on the show.
I've come very clearly to the conclude that all of
those things you mentioned, maybe at about ten percent either
way on house price is the vast majority of the
(23:11):
impact on house price growth or decline in this country
is the cost of money. And that's just empirical. You
can't that's not even disputable. Now, that's just a very
very clear evidence. So while I take.
Speaker 10 (23:22):
People don't want to get you still the japan had.
Speaker 3 (23:25):
Stave, just let astuley fash them yep, to sound you carry.
Speaker 2 (23:29):
It makes absolutely no difference. If you track what's happened
to house price over the last four decades, you'll see
that they have that those house price increases don't track
at all in relation to population or any of those
other things that you're talking about. The driving influence of
house price growth or house price decline is the cost
of money. That's an empirical fact. So all of that
(23:50):
other stuff. I understand why instinctively you might think that
would be the case, because it just seems logical to
the mind. But when you look at the data, it
tells you that that is not the case. House price
growth will go up if the cost of money comes down.
Won't matter what happens with inflation, and it won't matter what.
Sorry with immigration, and in fact, when you look at
when we had a massive spike of house price growth
(24:10):
in the eighties and again in the nineties, they were
both during periods where we had virtually no immigration growth.
So that's simply not a fact.
Speaker 3 (24:18):
Can I can I just jump in and ask.
Speaker 10 (24:19):
The nineties we had a massive immigration. The Chinese factor,
I think was huge in this country. We had they bought,
they brought up large Central Auckland, and it reverberate like
throwing a little stone into a pond of water.
Speaker 2 (24:33):
Buying it made no difference, It made huge different That's great.
Speaker 3 (24:41):
I love a good argument. But Steve, when you're.
Speaker 10 (24:43):
Getting that now, that migration and it's going to effector
in and we I think we're going to see if
we got the static population and we don't get the
growth that we've had, I think it's going to be
very They're going to have the impact. It's going to happen.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
If you're not saying I'm sorry, you're not right, And
let me just take your little pit there, which is
the Chinese thing?
Speaker 3 (25:04):
What did it one at a time?
Speaker 2 (25:07):
You raised it's the let me answer it. You're quoting here,
you're trying to claim that the that the foreign investment
was a big factor on house prices. The Labor government
actually introduced a foreign buyers ban directly as a result
of the belief on the on the left hand side
of the political spectrum that somehow immigration and foreign buyers
were causing a spoken house prices. It made no difference
(25:30):
whatsoever to house price growth, not not a dot of
difference was made to house price growth as a result
of that band it carried on doing what it was
doing white because the cost of money was coming down.
It had nothing to do with immigration, it had nothing
to do with foreign buyers. That's a medium mantra. That
what that proved not to be true.
Speaker 3 (25:47):
Lucky last time we.
Speaker 10 (25:48):
Had we had newly mentored.
Speaker 3 (25:53):
We got the argument on that stage and it was yeah,
but cheap money probably, Okay, Okay, Steve, what do you think? Okay?
Hold hold no, no, no, hold on hold economy Okay. I
was going to Steve what his prediction was for the market, actually,
but I think he's used up as used up all
his bullets there. Right.
Speaker 2 (26:10):
Look, look, I understand, I understand Steve's point, But because
the medias feed us the stuff.
Speaker 3 (26:14):
Yeah, so He was saying that those those even though
they stopped the immigration, there was a lot of Chinese
money in the country and stuff and yeah, and it was.
Speaker 2 (26:22):
The only Chinese money there was. And this is this
is this is an important thing to understand. So used
that were the Chinese people in our asians and auction
rooms buying property? Absolutely there were, They were Kiwis. They
were people that were naturalized and were part of this
country and had as much right to buy as anybody else.
But that's not what the Foreign Buyers Band was designed
to address. The Foreign Buyers Band was saying that there
was this foreign money coming in and it was buying properly,
(26:42):
and then they were taking off back to China after buying.
That that proved not to be true.
Speaker 3 (26:45):
I understand, Yeah, that's good. I think we will move
on because there was a good ding dong that wasn't it?
Actually you like it?
Speaker 11 (26:52):
Kid?
Speaker 2 (26:55):
Why didn't you? I kind of prefer those calls, but
he does.
Speaker 3 (26:58):
It's so cool against Steve, just not this hour right
eight and at col and Hello.
Speaker 5 (27:08):
Good afternoon to both. I'm just listening with interest to
hear you're begging Adrian or a bit without the interest
rates going up in it. But tell me where did
the banks get their money from to lean to New
Zealanders to buy their houses.
Speaker 8 (27:23):
Is it overseas?
Speaker 2 (27:25):
They get it from a variety of different sources, and interestingly,
not much of it comes from the Reserve Bank. They
get most of it from official sources, which is why
it's interesting that the o CR is such a big
indicator of what's going to happen to the cost of money.
Speaker 1 (27:37):
And so.
Speaker 11 (27:40):
I'm just going to make it quick, which is which
is then over the last couple of years in particular,
banks have actually been borrowing it more favorable terms than
they had been previously, so they've actually had the ability
to drop mortgage rates earlier than they.
Speaker 2 (27:53):
Did and and so the artificial constraint of the o
CR has actually allowed them, in my view, to profit
at the expense of the poor old New Zealand mortgage player.
Speaker 3 (28:01):
What did you want to add, Colin?
Speaker 5 (28:02):
Okay, what I want to make a point was there,
So they've got to borrow the bulk of their money
from overseas. Is that correct or not?
Speaker 2 (28:12):
Yes?
Speaker 5 (28:12):
Generally it is you yeah, okay, So why does Adrian
or have so much influence? Isn't it overseas rate you
put out in your bond yield against the US, and
we follow them. So you can beg him, but we're
awater on that of the world.
Speaker 2 (28:30):
Okay, And I I actually agree with you. That's the
point actually just made before you ask your question. So
the point I'm making is that they have actually been
borrowing at lower rates, and they did have the ability.
The problem is in fineness to them, and you know
I'm not always better them, but the problem is in
phoenis to the banks. If they had done that, then
all he would have done was put the O cra
ever higher and he would have found another way to
penalize the banks. So and the banks know that. So
(28:50):
the purpose of the OCR is to send a message
to the banks to say, this is where I want
rates to be, and if you drop them lower than that,
I'm going to find another way of basically making sure
that those those rates stay high. But you're absolutely correct.
Speaker 5 (29:02):
That exactly it oversees it determined basically determine what rates
we have, not ourselves.
Speaker 2 (29:11):
We're just simple what that means, and this is the
bit I get a bit of sensed about. What that
means is that the Australia because they are mostly Australian.
The Australian banks have basically been properly not the poor
old keiw for the last two or three years because
they've been paying a lot less for money than they're
charging on to us.
Speaker 3 (29:25):
Right, we need to take a break.
Speaker 2 (29:27):
This is great.
Speaker 3 (29:28):
Actually, you're provoking a few people with some strong opinions
and that's the way we love it. This is the
wonder If Radio show. We'll be back in just to
take it's twenty one minutes to five. Ruber, Jamaica.
Speaker 8 (29:43):
Jo.
Speaker 3 (29:49):
I do love this song. But we've got callers that
it mounted up for our topic we are talking about that. Well,
I'm not sure where we've gone with the topic, but
my guest is Ashley Church, and it's just what's inflation
coming down going to mean for the market? Taking your calls,
somebody a couple of texts for you, Ashley. One is
one says it's revolting, how it's revolting, how biased Ashley
(30:14):
churches in favor of property.
Speaker 4 (30:16):
I'm not sure if it's satirical that text or just just.
Speaker 2 (30:21):
Well it's a word I use a lot, so I'm
imagining they're probably using in a sarcastic way and fair
enough too. It's it's a good job. I'll give them that.
Speaker 3 (30:29):
And another one says a nice yachting term. There, great
guest as Ashley holds his own great show as per
So there's a couple there. We've got one positive and
one in favor. Let's take some more calls Hamer Shallot.
Speaker 6 (30:45):
Yeah, get a Ashley. Yeah, I really liked your comments
around you know, just the analysis around how things revolve
in the future, and you know, specifically around the cost
of money. Uh. And I think, you know, in terms
(31:07):
of property, a lot of people aren't quite clear about
the cost of holding the property as well. But I
don't want to get into food. On the next subject, well,
there's just the banks here in New Zealand. I had
I've got a bank in background abroad, and yeah, I
(31:33):
find it quite fascinating that they get away with what
they getting away with.
Speaker 3 (31:41):
You know, you don't trust the bank, famous, lo, I just.
Speaker 6 (31:46):
Know the you know, you know, things like carry trades
and just literally what they borrow at and then yeah
they do interest rates swaps and then lock it and
then you know it's not it's not New Zealand's you know,
commuit people putting money in the in the back and
(32:11):
whether it be aim Z or what.
Speaker 2 (32:14):
Do you think?
Speaker 3 (32:15):
What do you think is going to happen with the market.
What's your take on inflation coming down and where the
market's movement's going to ahead?
Speaker 6 (32:22):
I think, you know, yeah, I think i'd agree with
your colleague on the show one hundred. As you know,
the cost of money comes down, the prices will become firmer.
Speaker 5 (32:40):
And yeah, yeah, okay.
Speaker 6 (32:42):
You know you go through a series of ups and
downs and we're just a bit of a point of
down at the moment.
Speaker 3 (32:49):
Yeah, fair enough, Thanks so much. I thought I was
quite pleased that you made that point talking about Ashley,
about how everyone assumed it was frying buys and everything,
and yet the phenomenon of house prices went through the
roof when simply you made it cheaper.
Speaker 2 (33:02):
Absolutely, by the way you handled that call, well, if
I thought you should do this for a living.
Speaker 3 (33:06):
Oh well, I'll give it some thought. I'm just about
off my internship.
Speaker 2 (33:13):
The foreign buyer thing, you're right, I mean, and I
have to plug that constantly because there's just this natural
thing to think government put in place of foreign buyer's band.
Surely that worked. It didn't make no difference about serviting
ours process.
Speaker 3 (33:24):
Right, Let's take another one, Ryan High.
Speaker 8 (33:27):
Hi, gentlemen, I love a good spirited conversation on a
Saturday afternoon.
Speaker 1 (33:33):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (33:33):
Absolutely, What I'd like to.
Speaker 7 (33:36):
Throw in the mix.
Speaker 8 (33:37):
I think his name was Steve the caller a few
minutes ago. Just to throw some fuel on the fire.
Speaker 9 (33:42):
Maybe.
Speaker 8 (33:44):
Actually, you've mentioned that the correlation between interest rates and
house price growth is probably the greatest determining factor to
increasing prices or decreasing prices. Now, what I'd like to
know is the government has intervened in.
Speaker 7 (34:01):
Many ways in the last decades, and this year I think.
Speaker 8 (34:04):
It was July the first they instigated the get to
income Russia. Yes, And what I'm interested in is it
also doubtails into houses doubling every ten years or maybe
eleven or twelve as it extends out going forward. But
if income growth is going at about maybe four five
percent prandum, I think that's the stat I heard, how
(34:28):
is house price price growth likely to still double in
eleven or twelve years time? It's mouse are the biggest
determining factors to house price price growth.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
It's a very stud question and I'm glad you asked it.
So the first answer to that question is it won't
have nearly as much impact on people who've been in
the market for a long time. And I've got established
equity and have got in coming off that income coming
off that. So the people who will suffer from it
most are first home buyers, no doubt that in mine
and the same way that the first time buyers are
the people who suffer most from the from the lvrs,
(35:02):
the learned to value share restrictions. And I'm on record,
I think the show and other forums over the last
sort of sex debate months of saying I think that
the debt to income ratios are the single biggest obstacle
to first time buyers in the market that's ever been introduced,
So much so that I'm predicting that they will be
either removed or substantially reformed within three to four years
(35:24):
because they will. You're absolutely right. They will have a
detrimental effect on first home buyers and that will directly
impact on their ability to afford to mortgage. You know,
if you're in Auckland, you've got a household income of
one hundred and fifty thousand, and the debt to income
ratio seven. You know, good luck buying a house for
that price. That's just not going to happen. So you're
(35:46):
completely correct. It's going to have an impact.
Speaker 3 (35:49):
Hey, thanks so much for your call. Ryan. We'll be
back in just a moment. The property of the week,
by the way, the one property of the week as
an absolute ripper, and there's a clue in its price.
You might want to win that power ball tonight and
not split it. But we'll be back in just a moment.
This is news Talk, said b One Roof Radio Show.
Eleven minutes to five. Yes, and welcome back to the
(36:11):
One Roof Radio Show. It is now eight minutes to five.
Speaker 1 (36:16):
The one roof property of the week on the Weekend Collective, Yes, and.
Speaker 3 (36:21):
The one roof property of the week of interest in
National Church's take on this. But it is an absolute ripper,
but it is slightly themed on the fact that I
think it's a twenty six million dollars for powerball, and
I think from the research we've done, the estimate of
value for this property is twenty four million. So if
you are in the market for twenty four million dollar house,
then pay attention. And if you're not just going to
(36:42):
have a nosey on the one roof site. It is
thirty three Arnie Crescent. That is arn Y Crescent, Remura.
I've had a bit of a trawl around and it
is absolutely immaculate, beautiful house with a great outdoor eight
outdoor into look. Why would not of outdoor entertainment you'd
expect to have pretty much everything. It is a spectacular house.
(37:07):
I'm just looking for the property description because I'm on
the wrong Here we go. It's a newly relevated, renovated
Georgian home. It sits on, of course, one of the
most prestigious streets, within a double grammo zone. Originally designed
in the eighteen eighties, so even though it's absolutely mint
beautiful house, it originally goes back over one hundred years
(37:29):
and it's actually, what do you make of it, swimming pool,
seven bathrooms, six bedrooms, four car.
Speaker 2 (37:35):
Garage, Absolutely stunning, I have to say, because I've trolled
through the photograph as you do, I got library envy, because,
as you know, I like my libraries, and this has
got an amazing library. It goes. It covers at least
three walls and possibly four because of the camera angle.
But I did have one criticism of it, and there
is that I don't know anybody who has books that
are that straight. They're perfectly aligned. If you don't have
(37:57):
a look in.
Speaker 3 (37:57):
Your I know, I'm in the library.
Speaker 2 (38:00):
Look.
Speaker 4 (38:00):
Actually, I have a suspicion that that library looks The
books look a bit cgi.
Speaker 3 (38:09):
You know what I mean. They're all exactly the same height,
all perfectly aligned, which I can tell you from my
own library is not the case. And I think that
I think that probably those the library the bookshelves are
actually empty, would be my guess, or it's a display
sort of, you know, these are some books because they're
all exactly okay.
Speaker 2 (38:30):
I reckon, look it looks great.
Speaker 3 (38:33):
No, they're all exactly the same height. And nobody know.
I've seen your bookshelf. It's yours is artfully disheveled. Isn't it.
Speaker 2 (38:40):
Boho what they call it?
Speaker 3 (38:43):
But anyway, look, it's hard to summ up a house
like that. I would just encourage people to go into
a look, yeah, it's you know what. I wonder if
it'd just be too much for me. I don't think
i'd be able to keep an eye on the kids
and know whether they're whether they're on their mobile phones or.
Speaker 2 (38:58):
Not your media city. You could buy us an investment,
just as.
Speaker 3 (39:03):
A weekend house. You know, I'll just go there for
the weekend. Anyway, go and check it out. It is
absolutely magnificent, gorgeous looking swimming Paul garden. Actually, the kitchen's
the other one. The kitchen one of the photos. It's
just a kitchen bench, nothing else. And it shows you
how that the kitchen is hidden away and you open
everything up and there's the stove and there's everything else.
(39:23):
But it's all.
Speaker 2 (39:24):
It's something, isn't it.
Speaker 3 (39:25):
It's quite something. Anyway, Hey, Ashley, thank you so much
for your time. You'll be pleased. Well, we've got a
few people to spring with me.
Speaker 2 (39:32):
Apologize to Steve and you know, ring back Steve. I'll
try to be nice the next.
Speaker 3 (39:36):
Time somebody's telling me it's Paul Henry's house in the text,
I don't think it is. I'll think to Paul Henry's house.
I don't think he lives in Arny Crescent, but maybe
he does. Maybe he's upgraded since I was last there. Anyway,
you'll be putting an offer on on that, won't you. No, Okay, okay,
well but that means next time you're coming to us
on zoom again. Mind you if you were, if you
(39:59):
were in Auckland and you're in that house, you'd be like,
I'm not leaving. I'm still going to be zooming you.
I don't care for many ten minutes away.
Speaker 2 (40:05):
We're not going to the beverage.
Speaker 3 (40:08):
Hey, hey, great to have you on the show again.
Actually look forward to next time. Here we go and
you can check out the podcast on the News Talks website,
look for the Weekend Collective or on iHeartRadio. The Parents
Squad is next. Nathan Wallace joins us to talk about
whether we're making parenting harder than it actually needs to be,
our parents complicating things for themselves, and that includes the
(40:28):
whole helicopter parenting thing. Do we need to just you know,
step back, chill out. Thanks. We have a chat about
that and other things with and taking your calls with
Nathan Wallace. Next and eighty This is the News Talks
be Weekend Collective four minutes to five.
Speaker 1 (41:01):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to News
Talks it'd be weekend ends from three pm, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio.
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks
Bold the next Wow, then.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
It's once again.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
Great and welcome back to the show. Is the One
Roof radio show on the Weekend Collective. By the way,
if you miss any of the previous hours or the
subsequent hours, you can go and check out our podcast
for the Weekend Collective and away you go. And this
is by the way, if you missed the panel, it
was Irene Gardner and Shane to Poe. We covered a
lot of fun topics and some great conversations, so go
(00:55):
and check that out as if you've missed the previous hour.
But right now it's the One Roof Radio show. And
my guest is Well he's a property expert and property commentator.
He's been doing it for a wee while now it's
certainly been in the property game for also quite a
while and also on the show for a while. His
name is Ashley Church. Ashley, how are you going?
Speaker 2 (01:11):
I'm going a good tim I'm still buzzing from the
cup races this morning.
Speaker 3 (01:15):
Ah. Yes, I love.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
It the same, same, same, and and it was great
that we actually dropped a couple of races. I think
because it just heightened the the tension a couple of notches,
which was which is a good thing.
Speaker 4 (01:30):
You know.
Speaker 3 (01:30):
The other thing about it is that we actually just
sailed better. You know, you don't get a kilometer ahead
based on just boat speed. I think that the boats
are actually very very close. But we we picked the wind,
you know. I think that Berlin said it was like
sailing off Takapuna and.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
You and you know what, I love with with without
any wanted to draw disparagus upon anybody else. I just
love the calmness and the humility of Berlin and the
rest of the team. You know. Berlin a few days
ago was advised by media that he had seeded Spittles
as the greatest America's Cup skipper in terms of one time.
Speaker 3 (02:10):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
I think yeah, And I think he said something like,
oh that's cool. Wasn't it a great race?
Speaker 3 (02:16):
It's probably quite a studied it's quite a studied modesty.
You have to be ready and it's a fault default setting.
But yeah, no, I'm right into it. And I think, well,
I don't know. I think apparently the wind's going to
be at light the next day too, but we'll be
catching with our sports.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
You know if it's not tomorrow, it'll be the next.
Speaker 3 (02:32):
Day indeed, indeed, right, and how have you been good?
Speaker 2 (02:38):
I have been good. I had a very quick trip
overseas a couple of weeks back, which was unexpected, and yeah,
so that was all good. And no thing's been great.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
Right, let's get into it, shall we. Inflation numbers. Now,
inflation is way down from what we've seen as its peak.
It's the lowest and three and a half years down
to down from three point three to two point two percent.
And I guess the question that popped straight into my
mind is what it really means for the property market,
because I think when everyone decides to buy, then obviously
(03:10):
you're too late in terms of getting into it. But
what is it actually How do these inflation numbers impact property?
Both in terms of your predictions but based on what
you've observed over the years, what do you what do
you make of it?
Speaker 2 (03:23):
If the question is how does inflation affect the property market,
it's kind of the wrong question. It's almost the wrong
way around because because the latter.
Speaker 3 (03:30):
Is actually more how does property inflicting infectation?
Speaker 2 (03:33):
And there's a good reason for that. So in general terms,
in general terms, inflation actually doesn't affect the property market
other than obviously when when house prices are going up,
then that's a form of inflation in itself, but it
doesn't affect the overall inflation figures to the extent that
you might think it would. But what effects inflation when
it comes to the property market, and indeed the overall
market is the role that the Reserve Bank plays. So
(03:57):
your mate, mate, yeah, my ma had or old Adrian, you're.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
Going to be sending you a Christmas card. Sorry for
bagging you're so much age.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
I'm not, but I do feel Look, he was exceptional
as the CEO or whatever his role was with the
super fund. He you know, to the extent that that
fund's been successful over the last few years it's has
doing so I don't want to take that away from him,
but wholly unsuitable in this new role, or not all
that new now anyway. So when inflation goes up, such
(04:31):
as it has over the last two or three years
as a result of the Reserve Bank increasing the ocr
that's an artificial phenomenon and it's caused by the Reserve
Bank deliberately wanting to push inflation up so as to
suppress demand within the market, and that has an impact
on the housing market because when they do that pushes
up mortgage interest rates in fact to pushes up interest
rates overall within the market. Conversely, when we get to
(04:55):
the point we're at at the moment where they've overshot
that market, it's almost become too extreme and they start
bringing it down again, that brings mortgage interest rates down,
and so as a resul all of that, house prices
will go up. And that's that's just a given. That's
that's there's there's no I don't think there's any serious
question of that. Now. As the cost of money reduces,
the how the cost of housing goes up, and then
(05:16):
it will. So it's that they're not a direct relationship,
and that one doesn't immediately follow the other, but it
does follow it. So at some stage over the next
two or three years, you'll start to see first a
gradule and then quite a rapid rise inhouse prices as
a result of the cost of money coming down.
Speaker 3 (05:30):
We want your calls on this. Now that the new
inflation data is in and it's now down to within
the band which the Reserve Bank targeted between one and
three percent. What what are your plans with regards to property?
Is now the time to buy? Because the other question
is Ashley, this is probably something I've got from you,
not that I've actually done it. That is, I know
(05:57):
tell me, But well, I think it might have been
you who said that now is all that and now
was always the time to buy. If the equation makes
sense broadly speaking as a theme, is that you that
said that?
Speaker 2 (06:13):
It is me? And so it's interesting. So because when
I say that, I say that in the context of
people purchasing propercy, whether they're buying it to live in
or as investment property for the long haul. So if
you're buying property for a long time, you know, five
or ten, fifteen, twenty twenty five years, even if you're
buying and selling that property within that period of time,
(06:34):
then then when you buy it is relatively insignificant because
it will continue going up by quite significant amounts over
that period of time. If if somebody, you know, somebody
could probably legitimately come back to me and say, hey, well,
two years ago you were saying now is a good
time to buy property, and it dropped away a little
bit more in value. Therefore you were wrong if you
were looking in a very tight time frame like that
(06:54):
on the basis that you were expecting to get in
and out of the market quickly. Yeah, you could probably
criticize it, but that's never the way I mean it.
I always mean it in the context that when if
you buy in their in ten years to it's going
to be worth something approaching twice what you paid for it.
Who cares if you lost ten percent in the early
stages of that purchase.
Speaker 3 (07:11):
Yeah, because I think that that's probably one been one
of the things that stops some people is they're thinking,
let me try and predict the bottom of the cycle,
because I want to get a bargain and otherwise I'm
not going to buy. But the point being is that, look,
just get in and if you're playing a long game.
What is a long game these days? And property probably.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Oh ten years, ten years or more. I mean, but
if it's a house, if it's your own home, then
you are going once you buy a home, it's unlikely
that you're not going to buy a home for the
remainder of your life own a home, sorry, for the
remainder of your life. You might own several homes over
that time, but once you've started that journey. That journey
is going to continue. Very few people buy a home
and then don't have one at some stage later in life.
(07:49):
They just continue upgrading it over the course of their lifetime.
Speaker 3 (07:52):
I guess the thing would be how much because the
property market really did go through the roof and it's
been tailing off or going flat. Yeah, that was down
to Adrian or as well, wasn't it cheap money? Cheap money,
cheap money? But what does it mean in terms of
where's the market at, in terms of any adjustment that
needs to make, And.
Speaker 2 (08:13):
It's pretty much done, so you know. I mean, and
it's interesting because when you talk about the market, there
is and I'm as guilty of this as anybody, but
there is no one market. There are parts of the
country where it has price Yeah, well there's more than several.
There's probably twenty or thirty to be honest. And there
are some parts of the country where house prices really
weren't affected all that much. And there's others where Wellington,
for example, where they dropped as much as twenty percent.
(08:35):
So it really depends on where you are. But I
think regardless of that equation, it's fair to say that
it's pretty. It bottomed out about six to nine months ago.
It's been sitting taper, you know. I know I saw
something from core logical or real est attitude to somebody
a few days ago saying it had dropped half a percent.
Those numbers are meaningless in the context of the overall markets. Overall,
(08:56):
it's stable and it will soon start going up.
Speaker 3 (08:59):
What would be the signs that it's going to start
to move?
Speaker 5 (09:01):
Is it? Oh?
Speaker 2 (09:03):
That started? They started nine months ago. The first of
them was that the So the first sign, if you
want for it as an empirical sign, was that the
Reserve Bank stopped increasing the ocr That was that had
stopped at five percent I think nine or ten months ago.
So that was that was signed number one because that
gave people confidence that they weren't going to have more pain.
And then all that were really doing was waiting for
interest rates to start coming down. And we know now
(09:24):
that started happening and that will that will accelerate over
the next twelve months. Is a reserve bank six to
remedy the era that it's made with the market?
Speaker 3 (09:31):
What do you again, where we sort of by the
way we want your cause I might not have mentioned
that at the start, my apologies eight hundred eighty ten
and eighty text nine two nine two. You've heard the
inflation numbers. They're down from the sort of frightening highs
that they were now to about two point two percent
the last and three and a half years. I think,
So I want to hear from you eight hundred eighty
ten and eighty what does that? What did that have
(09:54):
on your investment decisions in the property market, whether it
be investing as a literally an investor, or investing is
in the broader sense of investing in your own future
by having your own Yeah, eight hundred eighty I guess
the next question is that people are going to be
thinking about is how far mortgage rates will fall. Because
(10:17):
I've heard predictions as much as they could should or
could go more than a point down, more than one
hundred bas.
Speaker 2 (10:25):
I've been consistently saying, in fact, I think I've been
saying to you, amongst others, I've been consistently saying that
they'll settle it about four and a half percent, you know,
sort of one or two year rates. And the reason
I've said that is because that's the long run average
about the last twenty years. But I'll tell you what,
looking looking at what's been happening over the last couple
of months and looking at where the trajectory seems to go,
(10:47):
might even go lower than that, but it could take
a year lower than what lower than four and a half?
Speaker 3 (10:53):
What is what is the optimen for you? I mean, again,
that's all subjective stuff.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
Isn't the optim the optimus where they were in twenty
twenty one, but that's not going to happen again.
Speaker 3 (11:04):
Well, Actually, that's an interesting point because is it really
an optimum? Because it might be if interest rates are cheap,
it means if you own property and you're looking to
sell it, property prices are going to go through the roof.
But in terms of an equilibrium between buyers and sellers
and people being able to afford to get in and
the amount of cash that's held up in it, I
don't know if that felt optimum to me.
Speaker 2 (11:25):
Seriously, that statement presupposes a lot of stuff.
Speaker 3 (11:28):
Yeah, of course, I haven't thought it out too carefully.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
Presupposes, for example, that there's some ideal price at which
property should sell, and you know, if that exists, it
certainly hasn't existed in this country for the last forty years.
And it also presupposes that somehow house price inflation is bad,
and that's just a proposition. I would absolutely argue house
price inflation has been extraordinarily good for this country over
the last forty years. And the only caveat to that
(11:52):
would be if somebody said to me, yes, that's fine
for you, but poor old first home buyers have missed out,
except the evidence demonstrates that they haven't. For the last
one hundred years, house price ownership in this country has
stayed stubbornly out of a ridge of about sixty five percent.
So the only reason you would argue against house price
inflation isn't born out.
Speaker 3 (12:12):
Okay, I've got an argument that I think is not
a bad one, and that is I think that house
prices should always be such that you could anticipate paying
off the principle in the course of you know, twenty
twenty five years or whatever. And if it gets because
(12:35):
of house prices went bonkers, and I know you're, you know,
the free market thing, you'd be while these things always
have a way of balancing out. I think the idea
that you would never pay off your loan because money
is so cheap that it's that you're sort of a
tenant in a way, you know what I mean. Imagine
if interest rates were one percent and house right rats
went through the roof, there'd be people buying houses who
would never imagine they could ever ever pay it off.
Speaker 2 (12:59):
Let me so, let me give two answers to there.
Speaker 3 (13:00):
And that's not a bad crack.
Speaker 2 (13:03):
Come on, give me some Let me give two answers
to it. Firstly, firstly, let's assume that was true. The
cost of owning a home, if you take account of
average house prices, average mortgage rates, and average salaries, has
actually been reducing over the last thirty five years. It's
got lower, not higher, So that equation has got moved
in favor of first home buyers, not against them. But
(13:26):
more importantly, let's say we agreed that that was actually
something that we should do. Tim how would you do it?
Speaker 3 (13:32):
I'm not saying I'm trying to manipulate it.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
How would you do?
Speaker 6 (13:35):
Well?
Speaker 3 (13:35):
No, what I'm well, I'm just saying that that's an
argument against ridiculously cheap money, because it might. I know,
the market has a way of finding it's some sort
of equilibrium where there's a balance in the end By.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
The way, Remember that when the reserve banks moving down
the cost of money, it's not doing it in difference
to the property market. It's doing it to the overall economy.
So when it's pushing the cost of money up or
them cost of money down, it's looking at the overall
economy and the impact of high or low inflation on
the economy overall. It's not looking at the market and saying, Okay,
now it's time to raise house prices for homeowners. That's
not their rationale.
Speaker 3 (14:07):
Okay, well, look we want your calls. I eight hundred
eighty ten eighty inflation numbers are released this week. They're
down from three point three to two point two percent.
There's calls on the Reserve Bank, on sorry, the Reserve
Bank governor, to keep pushing the cash rate down. So
is now the time to buy? Is this something which
makes you think, you know what? I better dust off
my calculator on my spreadsheet and have a think about
(14:30):
how much I can borrow and how much I'm prepared
to pay on what my plan is. I eight hundred
eighty ten and eighty text nine to nine two. My
guest is Ashley Church will be back in just a moment,
news talks, he'd be news talks, he'd be yes. My
Tim Beverage, My guest is Ashley Church. We're asking well
inflations now within the band? Does it mean for the
property to market and is now the time to buy
or at least start thinking about it? I eight hundred
(14:51):
and eighty ten and eighty Mark, Hello, Yeah.
Speaker 7 (14:54):
I think guys going good goods. You question, yeah, just
sort of goes to your prediction or your sort of
there on the house process something over every sort of
ten years. Actually, do you think that's likely to continue
in future?
Speaker 2 (15:12):
No, that's a good question, mart, So the answer is yes,
but slower. It's interesting. I did some numbers on this
a couple of years back. I've been doing presentation on it,
and it demonstrates because that's because that's a mantra. It's
a mantra that property investors have that property is going
to double in value. So I actually had a look
and it bears out absolutely in eighty nineteen ninety to
two thousand and two thousand to twenty ten, but in
(15:33):
twenty ten to as it happens twenty twenty one, it
actually took twelve years. It actually took a little bit longer,
and I suspect that's simply a feature of the fact
that house prices are more expensive now. So if you
extrapolate that out, my prediction is that it's going to
take a little bit longer each decade. So the next
decade it might take thirteen or fourteen years to double
rather than ten, but they will still double eventually.
Speaker 7 (15:54):
Do you think that you'll get to a stage where
that will not be the case because people wont.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
In term, might be alive when that happens. That'll be
sometime in two thousand two and sixties, and that'll be
you know, and.
Speaker 3 (16:06):
I'm planning on still being alive there, Thanks very much.
Speaker 8 (16:09):
Sorry.
Speaker 2 (16:09):
I should have thought it will happen so gradually we
won't notice it.
Speaker 7 (16:14):
All right, No, good, good things.
Speaker 3 (16:17):
Why does that mark? Why do you ask? Is this
because you're thinking of dipping into the game or oh no, you.
Speaker 7 (16:23):
Are already am. And from my experience particularly, it's kind
of over last. I've been in the game for the
last sort of fifteen twenty years, so, but you're just
in terms of looking at where it's likely to go
for our children in the future, and with with incomes
(16:44):
not increasing to the extent, it sort of will get
to a stage and my thinking where it will be
unachievable for people, you know, keeping righting the question of how.
Speaker 3 (16:54):
Long theyre and from a common sense mathematical point of view,
exponential growth is not sustainable because you know, you know,
when you keep doubling, it just becomes so like.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
Words say, well, yeah, there we go.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
I think you'd like you'd know that word, wouldn't she
beat You would have been used to some exponential growth
growth in your own property, would have told you how
you would have said, what's the word for that? Every
time it doubles? And what's what's the word for that?
And your account it would have said, Ashley, you're enjoying
exponential growth, and you would have filed that away.
Speaker 2 (17:25):
He thinks it was good cool man.
Speaker 3 (17:27):
Sorry, it's just been a bit of a smart ass there,
but here we go.
Speaker 9 (17:30):
Fletcher, Hello, good afternoon. I just caught your remark actually
before the ad break, that the cost of owning a
home relative to income has decreased. I was really encouraged
to hear that given last week in the smoker room
we were complaining that compared to our parents generation, house
(17:54):
prices have increased relative to our parents' income. Could you
help run me through that?
Speaker 2 (18:00):
Indeed, and thanks for asking that. So he's wrong, So
that's wrong. Mike Peru said, yeah, actually you mean Mike Perro.
You know what he's wrong in this I actually rate Mike,
but he's wrong in this case. Let me let me
explain why. Now, to be fair, let me put a
cave in on that. I'm basing this on ware house
prices and interest rates and average incomes got to in
(18:21):
the mid eighties. So in the mid eighties, if you
took the average household income and the average household price,
and where what interest rates were tracking at, which is
about twenty one percent in the mid eighties, then the
cost of servicing a mortgage based on those three figures
was about fifty five percent of income, sorry, fifty two
(18:43):
percent of income. In other words, it took fifty two
percent you take home and come to actually service that mortgage.
Because and this is the media always missing out, because
it doesn't suit their argument because over the intervening thirty
five or forty years, interest rates came down from that
twenty one percent, even though house prices increased, and even
though interest even though wages didn't go up at the
same rate. By two twenty and eighteen, twenty and nineteen,
(19:07):
it was taking thirty five percent of the household income
to service the same mortgage on the If you talk
the averages, it's still in twenty eighteen average household income,
average households price, and cost of interest at that stage.
So what that tells us is you don't look at
the headline numbers, look at the overall impact on a household.
It dropped from fifty two percent to thirty five percent now.
(19:27):
To be fear that will have gone up again over
the last few years, certainly in twenty twenty one, but
it still hasn't got as high as that fifty two
percent in the mid eighties. So it's definitely cheaper for
people buying a house now than it was for the appearance.
Speaker 9 (19:41):
Excellent, thank you, I appreciate.
Speaker 3 (19:43):
Right good on your thanks for e scher even in
that you know the twenty percent hard and how long?
How long do we have that twenty percent interest rates?
You know that ridiculous time.
Speaker 2 (19:52):
Was early came slowly, it came down. I think they
were still quok quite high by the early early to
mid nineties. They slowly came down I think we got
down to about sort of five and a half percent
by toward the end of the nineties, but prior to that,
it took a long time for them to come down.
And because we were doing the same thing we're doing now,
we were trying to get rapid inslation under control.
Speaker 3 (20:08):
Because I remember talking to an old, older friend who
said she bought her house in North Shore or something
about one hundred and eighty thousand dollars, and I said, like,
what a bargain, And she said, well, my interest rate
was twenty percent. And I was thinking back then how
much her payments were compared to the median wage, and
that was a blooming fortune.
Speaker 2 (20:26):
It's interesting because whenever the media focus on this particular topic,
as they do periodically, they always leave out that third
part of the equation, the interest rates, because that doesn't
suit the argument.
Speaker 3 (20:35):
Yes, that's just that's you getting active and political then too,
actually when it gets your hackles up. But those cheap,
those cheap statistical half shots, ay, aren't they When people
can't here anyway? Right, let's carry on. We've got plenty
of calls to get to Steve.
Speaker 10 (20:52):
Hello, Steve, Yeah, yeah, I can't recall those high interest
rates hanging around for long, you know, that's the thing.
Everyone talks about them as though they were there for
a lot, but they didn't seem to peak, and then
it came down pretty quick. But also the cost of
living wasn't as high. It wasn't cost of living wasn't
(21:12):
as high with everything else, was it, you know, all
the non tradable I mean, electricity relative to income or
all the other food relative income was it was a
lot cheaper.
Speaker 2 (21:23):
You missing you're missing state now, yeah, yeah, you're missing
the point though, Steve. It's it's what was it costing
to service a mortgage relative to the over to total
house price and total household income, and it was fifty
two percent. So that other stuff doesn't matter. It doesn't
matter whether the cost of living was half what it
was now, it's what was the what was the cost
of servicing a mortgage? And it's dropped from fifty two
(21:44):
to as I say, in twenty eighteen, about thirty five,
So those other figures aren't relevant. What matters is what
proportion of your income it took to service your mortgage
and that's dropped that.
Speaker 10 (21:55):
Yeah, you have to take all that into account anyway.
But Look, there are a whole lot of other factors,
other interest rates that are going to affect the property
price is going forward, right, And you're missing those points.
You know. It's all this and interest rates you're missing.
You're missing a couple important points, mate, Resource Management Act
changes right, lower birth rates, the Unitary Plan, high density
housing which means more supply, foreign investors can't buy here, right.
(22:20):
And then you've got you know, very very low im
migration levels, which I think are the probably most important
thing with the country's never done well economically without a
lot of people coming in the door, right, like one
hundred thousand a year into Auckland. Yes, that gets things pumping,
but we're not going to we're not seeing that now.
(22:41):
There might be more people leaving next year than coming
into the country. Okay, so let me have a huge impact.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
So let me answer. So with all your respect, I'm
not missing any of those And if you've listened to
me over the last few years, you'll know that probably
seven or eight years ago, I would have agreed with
you that those things were big factors. I've come based
on data, and I talk about a lot on the show.
I've come very clearly to the conclude that all of
those things you mentioned, maybe at about ten percent either
way on house price is the vast majority of the
(23:11):
impact on house price growth or decline in this country
is the cost of money. And that's just empirical. You
can't that's not even disputable. Now, that's just a very
very clear evidence. So while I take.
Speaker 10 (23:22):
People don't want to get you still the japan had.
Speaker 3 (23:25):
Stave, just let astuley fash them yep, to sound you carry.
Speaker 2 (23:29):
It makes absolutely no difference. If you track what's happened
to house price over the last four decades, you'll see
that they have that those house price increases don't track
at all in relation to population or any of those
other things that you're talking about. The driving influence of
house price growth or house price decline is the cost
of money. That's an empirical fact. So all of that
(23:50):
other stuff. I understand why instinctively you might think that
would be the case, because it just seems logical to
the mind. But when you look at the data, it
tells you that that is not the case. House price
growth will go up if the cost of money comes down.
Won't matter what happens with inflation, and it won't matter what.
Sorry with immigration, and in fact, when you look at
when we had a massive spike of house price growth
(24:10):
in the eighties and again in the nineties, they were
both during periods where we had virtually no immigration growth.
So that's simply not a fact.
Speaker 3 (24:18):
Can I can I just jump in and ask.
Speaker 10 (24:19):
The nineties we had a massive immigration. The Chinese factor,
I think was huge in this country. We had they bought,
they brought up large Central Auckland, and it reverberate like
throwing a little stone into a pond of water.
Speaker 2 (24:33):
Buying it made no difference, It made huge different That's great.
Speaker 3 (24:41):
I love a good argument. But Steve, when you're.
Speaker 10 (24:43):
Getting that now, that migration and it's going to effector
in and we I think we're going to see if
we got the static population and we don't get the
growth that we've had, I think it's going to be
very They're going to have the impact. It's going to happen.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
If you're not saying I'm sorry, you're not right, And
let me just take your little pit there, which is
the Chinese thing?
Speaker 3 (25:04):
What did it one at a time?
Speaker 2 (25:07):
You raised it's the let me answer it. You're quoting here,
you're trying to claim that the that the foreign investment
was a big factor on house prices. The Labor government
actually introduced a foreign buyers ban directly as a result
of the belief on the on the left hand side
of the political spectrum that somehow immigration and foreign buyers
were causing a spoken house prices. It made no difference
(25:30):
whatsoever to house price growth, not not a dot of
difference was made to house price growth as a result
of that band it carried on doing what it was
doing white because the cost of money was coming down.
It had nothing to do with immigration, it had nothing
to do with foreign buyers. That's a medium mantra. That
what that proved not to be true.
Speaker 3 (25:47):
Lucky last time we.
Speaker 10 (25:48):
Had we had newly mentored.
Speaker 3 (25:53):
We got the argument on that stage and it was yeah,
but cheap money probably, Okay, Okay, Steve, what do you think? Okay?
Hold hold no, no, no, hold on hold economy Okay. I
was going to Steve what his prediction was for the market, actually,
but I think he's used up as used up all
his bullets there. Right.
Speaker 2 (26:10):
Look, look, I understand, I understand Steve's point, But because
the medias feed us the stuff.
Speaker 3 (26:14):
Yeah, so He was saying that those those even though
they stopped the immigration, there was a lot of Chinese
money in the country and stuff and yeah, and it was.
Speaker 2 (26:22):
The only Chinese money there was. And this is this
is this is an important thing to understand. So used
that were the Chinese people in our asians and auction
rooms buying property? Absolutely there were, They were Kiwis. They
were people that were naturalized and were part of this
country and had as much right to buy as anybody else.
But that's not what the Foreign Buyers Band was designed
to address. The Foreign Buyers Band was saying that there
was this foreign money coming in and it was buying properly,
(26:42):
and then they were taking off back to China after buying.
That that proved not to be true.
Speaker 3 (26:45):
I understand, Yeah, that's good. I think we will move
on because there was a good ding dong that wasn't it?
Actually you like it?
Speaker 11 (26:52):
Kid?
Speaker 2 (26:55):
Why didn't you? I kind of prefer those calls, but
he does.
Speaker 3 (26:58):
It's so cool against Steve, just not this hour right
eight and at col and Hello.
Speaker 5 (27:08):
Good afternoon to both. I'm just listening with interest to
hear you're begging Adrian or a bit without the interest
rates going up in it. But tell me where did
the banks get their money from to lean to New
Zealanders to buy their houses.
Speaker 8 (27:23):
Is it overseas?
Speaker 2 (27:25):
They get it from a variety of different sources, and interestingly,
not much of it comes from the Reserve Bank. They
get most of it from official sources, which is why
it's interesting that the o CR is such a big
indicator of what's going to happen to the cost of money.
Speaker 1 (27:37):
And so.
Speaker 11 (27:40):
I'm just going to make it quick, which is which
is then over the last couple of years in particular,
banks have actually been borrowing it more favorable terms than
they had been previously, so they've actually had the ability
to drop mortgage rates earlier than they.
Speaker 2 (27:53):
Did and and so the artificial constraint of the o
CR has actually allowed them, in my view, to profit
at the expense of the poor old New Zealand mortgage player.
Speaker 3 (28:01):
What did you want to add, Colin?
Speaker 5 (28:02):
Okay, what I want to make a point was there,
So they've got to borrow the bulk of their money
from overseas. Is that correct or not?
Speaker 2 (28:12):
Yes?
Speaker 5 (28:12):
Generally it is you yeah, okay, So why does Adrian
or have so much influence? Isn't it overseas rate you
put out in your bond yield against the US, and
we follow them. So you can beg him, but we're
awater on that of the world.
Speaker 2 (28:30):
Okay, And I I actually agree with you. That's the
point actually just made before you ask your question. So
the point I'm making is that they have actually been
borrowing at lower rates, and they did have the ability.
The problem is in fineness to them, and you know
I'm not always better them, but the problem is in
phoenis to the banks. If they had done that, then
all he would have done was put the O cra
ever higher and he would have found another way to
penalize the banks. So and the banks know that. So
(28:50):
the purpose of the OCR is to send a message
to the banks to say, this is where I want
rates to be, and if you drop them lower than that,
I'm going to find another way of basically making sure
that those those rates stay high. But you're absolutely correct.
Speaker 5 (29:02):
That exactly it oversees it determined basically determine what rates
we have, not ourselves.
Speaker 2 (29:11):
We're just simple what that means, and this is the
bit I get a bit of sensed about. What that
means is that the Australia because they are mostly Australian.
The Australian banks have basically been properly not the poor
old keiw for the last two or three years because
they've been paying a lot less for money than they're
charging on to us.
Speaker 3 (29:25):
Right, we need to take a break.
Speaker 2 (29:27):
This is great.
Speaker 3 (29:28):
Actually, you're provoking a few people with some strong opinions
and that's the way we love it. This is the
wonder If Radio show. We'll be back in just to
take it's twenty one minutes to five. Ruber, Jamaica.
Speaker 8 (29:43):
Jo.
Speaker 3 (29:49):
I do love this song. But we've got callers that
it mounted up for our topic we are talking about that. Well,
I'm not sure where we've gone with the topic, but
my guest is Ashley Church, and it's just what's inflation
coming down going to mean for the market? Taking your calls,
somebody a couple of texts for you, Ashley. One is
one says it's revolting, how it's revolting, how biased Ashley
(30:14):
churches in favor of property.
Speaker 4 (30:16):
I'm not sure if it's satirical that text or just just.
Speaker 2 (30:21):
Well it's a word I use a lot, so I'm
imagining they're probably using in a sarcastic way and fair
enough too. It's it's a good job. I'll give them that.
Speaker 3 (30:29):
And another one says a nice yachting term. There, great
guest as Ashley holds his own great show as per
So there's a couple there. We've got one positive and
one in favor. Let's take some more calls Hamer Shallot.
Speaker 6 (30:45):
Yeah, get a Ashley. Yeah, I really liked your comments
around you know, just the analysis around how things revolve
in the future, and you know, specifically around the cost
of money. Uh. And I think, you know, in terms
(31:07):
of property, a lot of people aren't quite clear about
the cost of holding the property as well. But I
don't want to get into food. On the next subject, well,
there's just the banks here in New Zealand. I had
I've got a bank in background abroad, and yeah, I
(31:33):
find it quite fascinating that they get away with what
they getting away with.
Speaker 3 (31:41):
You know, you don't trust the bank, famous, lo, I just.
Speaker 6 (31:46):
Know the you know, you know, things like carry trades
and just literally what they borrow at and then yeah
they do interest rates swaps and then lock it and
then you know it's not it's not New Zealand's you know,
commuit people putting money in the in the back and
(32:11):
whether it be aim Z or what.
Speaker 2 (32:14):
Do you think?
Speaker 3 (32:15):
What do you think is going to happen with the market.
What's your take on inflation coming down and where the
market's movement's going to ahead?
Speaker 6 (32:22):
I think, you know, yeah, I think i'd agree with
your colleague on the show one hundred. As you know,
the cost of money comes down, the prices will become firmer.
Speaker 5 (32:40):
And yeah, yeah, okay.
Speaker 6 (32:42):
You know you go through a series of ups and
downs and we're just a bit of a point of
down at the moment.
Speaker 3 (32:49):
Yeah, fair enough, Thanks so much. I thought I was
quite pleased that you made that point talking about Ashley,
about how everyone assumed it was frying buys and everything,
and yet the phenomenon of house prices went through the
roof when simply you made it cheaper.
Speaker 2 (33:02):
Absolutely, by the way you handled that call, well, if
I thought you should do this for a living.
Speaker 3 (33:06):
Oh well, I'll give it some thought. I'm just about
off my internship.
Speaker 2 (33:13):
The foreign buyer thing, you're right, I mean, and I
have to plug that constantly because there's just this natural
thing to think government put in place of foreign buyer's band.
Surely that worked. It didn't make no difference about serviting
ours process.
Speaker 3 (33:24):
Right, Let's take another one, Ryan High.
Speaker 8 (33:27):
Hi, gentlemen, I love a good spirited conversation on a
Saturday afternoon.
Speaker 1 (33:33):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (33:33):
Absolutely, What I'd like to.
Speaker 7 (33:36):
Throw in the mix.
Speaker 8 (33:37):
I think his name was Steve the caller a few
minutes ago. Just to throw some fuel on the fire.
Speaker 9 (33:42):
Maybe.
Speaker 8 (33:44):
Actually, you've mentioned that the correlation between interest rates and
house price growth is probably the greatest determining factor to
increasing prices or decreasing prices. Now, what I'd like to
know is the government has intervened in.
Speaker 7 (34:01):
Many ways in the last decades, and this year I think.
Speaker 8 (34:04):
It was July the first they instigated the get to
income Russia. Yes, And what I'm interested in is it
also doubtails into houses doubling every ten years or maybe
eleven or twelve as it extends out going forward. But
if income growth is going at about maybe four five
percent prandum, I think that's the stat I heard, how
(34:28):
is house price price growth likely to still double in
eleven or twelve years time? It's mouse are the biggest
determining factors to house price price growth.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
It's a very stud question and I'm glad you asked it.
So the first answer to that question is it won't
have nearly as much impact on people who've been in
the market for a long time. And I've got established
equity and have got in coming off that income coming
off that. So the people who will suffer from it
most are first home buyers, no doubt that in mine
and the same way that the first time buyers are
the people who suffer most from the from the lvrs,
(35:02):
the learned to value share restrictions. And I'm on record,
I think the show and other forums over the last
sort of sex debate months of saying I think that
the debt to income ratios are the single biggest obstacle
to first time buyers in the market that's ever been introduced,
So much so that I'm predicting that they will be
either removed or substantially reformed within three to four years
(35:24):
because they will. You're absolutely right. They will have a
detrimental effect on first home buyers and that will directly
impact on their ability to afford to mortgage. You know,
if you're in Auckland, you've got a household income of
one hundred and fifty thousand, and the debt to income
ratio seven. You know, good luck buying a house for
that price. That's just not going to happen. So you're
(35:46):
completely correct. It's going to have an impact.
Speaker 3 (35:49):
Hey, thanks so much for your call. Ryan. We'll be
back in just a moment. The property of the week,
by the way, the one property of the week as
an absolute ripper, and there's a clue in its price.
You might want to win that power ball tonight and
not split it. But we'll be back in just a moment.
This is news Talk, said b One Roof Radio Show.
Eleven minutes to five. Yes, and welcome back to the
(36:11):
One Roof Radio Show. It is now eight minutes to five.
Speaker 1 (36:16):
The one roof property of the week on the Weekend Collective, Yes, and.
Speaker 3 (36:21):
The one roof property of the week of interest in
National Church's take on this. But it is an absolute ripper,
but it is slightly themed on the fact that I
think it's a twenty six million dollars for powerball, and
I think from the research we've done, the estimate of
value for this property is twenty four million. So if
you are in the market for twenty four million dollar house,
then pay attention. And if you're not just going to
(36:42):
have a nosey on the one roof site. It is
thirty three Arnie Crescent. That is arn Y Crescent, Remura.
I've had a bit of a trawl around and it
is absolutely immaculate, beautiful house with a great outdoor eight
outdoor into look. Why would not of outdoor entertainment you'd
expect to have pretty much everything. It is a spectacular house.
(37:07):
I'm just looking for the property description because I'm on
the wrong Here we go. It's a newly relevated, renovated
Georgian home. It sits on, of course, one of the
most prestigious streets, within a double grammo zone. Originally designed
in the eighteen eighties, so even though it's absolutely mint
beautiful house, it originally goes back over one hundred years
(37:29):
and it's actually, what do you make of it, swimming pool,
seven bathrooms, six bedrooms, four car.
Speaker 2 (37:35):
Garage, Absolutely stunning, I have to say, because I've trolled
through the photograph as you do, I got library envy, because,
as you know, I like my libraries, and this has
got an amazing library. It goes. It covers at least
three walls and possibly four because of the camera angle.
But I did have one criticism of it, and there
is that I don't know anybody who has books that
are that straight. They're perfectly aligned. If you don't have
(37:57):
a look in.
Speaker 3 (37:57):
Your I know, I'm in the library.
Speaker 2 (38:00):
Look.
Speaker 4 (38:00):
Actually, I have a suspicion that that library looks The
books look a bit cgi.
Speaker 3 (38:09):
You know what I mean. They're all exactly the same height,
all perfectly aligned, which I can tell you from my
own library is not the case. And I think that
I think that probably those the library the bookshelves are
actually empty, would be my guess, or it's a display
sort of, you know, these are some books because they're
all exactly okay.
Speaker 2 (38:30):
I reckon, look it looks great.
Speaker 3 (38:33):
No, they're all exactly the same height. And nobody know.
I've seen your bookshelf. It's yours is artfully disheveled. Isn't it.
Speaker 2 (38:40):
Boho what they call it?
Speaker 3 (38:43):
But anyway, look, it's hard to summ up a house
like that. I would just encourage people to go into
a look, yeah, it's you know what. I wonder if
it'd just be too much for me. I don't think
i'd be able to keep an eye on the kids
and know whether they're whether they're on their mobile phones or.
Speaker 2 (38:58):
Not your media city. You could buy us an investment,
just as.
Speaker 3 (39:03):
A weekend house. You know, I'll just go there for
the weekend. Anyway, go and check it out. It is
absolutely magnificent, gorgeous looking swimming Paul garden. Actually, the kitchen's
the other one. The kitchen one of the photos. It's
just a kitchen bench, nothing else. And it shows you
how that the kitchen is hidden away and you open
everything up and there's the stove and there's everything else.
(39:23):
But it's all.
Speaker 2 (39:24):
It's something, isn't it.
Speaker 3 (39:25):
It's quite something. Anyway, Hey, Ashley, thank you so much
for your time. You'll be pleased. Well, we've got a
few people to spring with me.
Speaker 2 (39:32):
Apologize to Steve and you know, ring back Steve. I'll
try to be nice the next.
Speaker 3 (39:36):
Time somebody's telling me it's Paul Henry's house in the text,
I don't think it is. I'll think to Paul Henry's house.
I don't think he lives in Arny Crescent, but maybe
he does. Maybe he's upgraded since I was last there. Anyway,
you'll be putting an offer on on that, won't you. No, Okay, okay,
well but that means next time you're coming to us
on zoom again. Mind you if you were, if you
(39:59):
were in Auckland and you're in that house, you'd be like,
I'm not leaving. I'm still going to be zooming you.
I don't care for many ten minutes away.
Speaker 2 (40:05):
We're not going to the beverage.
Speaker 3 (40:08):
Hey, hey, great to have you on the show again.
Actually look forward to next time. Here we go and
you can check out the podcast on the News Talks website,
look for the Weekend Collective or on iHeartRadio. The Parents
Squad is next. Nathan Wallace joins us to talk about
whether we're making parenting harder than it actually needs to be,
our parents complicating things for themselves, and that includes the
(40:28):
whole helicopter parenting thing. Do we need to just you know,
step back, chill out. Thanks. We have a chat about
that and other things with and taking your calls with
Nathan Wallace. Next and eighty This is the News Talks
be Weekend Collective four minutes to five.
Speaker 1 (41:01):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to News
Talks it'd be weekend ends from three pm, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio.
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