Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
A'd be extraordinary day in American politics. A picture of
former President Donald Trump covered in blood holding his fist
in the air is bound to define this election. Cyc
called Donald Trump's campaign has said in a statement that
the former US president was fine after a shooting at
Israeli in Butler, Pennsylvania. To discuss the political ramifications, we're
(00:30):
joined by Professor of Politics and Director of International Studies
at the University of Otago, Robert Patman. Robert, how are you?
I've got you now, Robert. Good afternoon, Roberts. What does
this mean for the remainder of this presidential campaign? It
(00:51):
has been an extraordinary, shocking day in American politics. Could
this hand Donald Trump the presidency?
Speaker 3 (00:59):
Well, first of all, it is a very dark moment
in American politics. And in the short term, this attempted
assassination and we don't know the circumstances. We know that
the person concerned, the shooter is now dead, but we
don't know the circumstances, the motivation, and the links that
(01:20):
this person may may have had. So there's a lot
to be uncovered yet. But in the short term, just
on a human level. I think there will be a
boost for mister Trump in terms of many people sympathetic
that he's been subject to a brutal act of violence,
(01:40):
which thankfully was unsuccessful. But America does have a bit
of a tradition of political violence. The last president to
face this type advance was Ronald Reagan in nineteen eighty one,
when he narrowly escaped with his life and went on
to serve the second term. So in the short term,
I think there'll be a groundswell of support and sympathy
(02:03):
for mister Trump which could help him in the election.
And a lot will depend, of course, on how President
Biden responds also, and he has already responded and sent
his support and said he will be speaking to mister
Trump and condemned without reservation this shocking incident.
Speaker 2 (02:21):
I'm looking at the news channels right now, Robert, and unsurprisingly,
the picture of a defiant Donald Trump with his fist
in the year is being played over and over again.
Do you expect the Trump campaign to use that through
the remainder of the presidential campaign.
Speaker 3 (02:37):
Yes, because it fits into their narrative. Mister Trump has
always presented himself as a victim who had his election
victory stolen. And then, of course we saw the result
of that, which was the storming of the US Capitol
and something like nine people died as a result of
that episode. So what we've seen mister Trump's narrative is
(03:00):
that he has been a bit of a victim of
what he calls deep state activity. You know, some of
mister Trump's supporters are already pointing the finger the Biden
administration as being implicated in this attempted assassination. Now, these
are people on the social media who making these accusations.
(03:21):
There's no subfactual to back that up. But I think
what we can say is that this episode is not
likely to heal divisions within the United States, which is
a deeply poe aright society. If anything, this incident will
make the divisions even wider.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
Do you have any faith that the Republican Party in particular,
but also the Democratic Party, and you've mentioned Joe Biden
has already come out to contemn the violence, but both
of those parties will do what they can to try
and quell tensions. As you mentioned, Robert, American politics already
feels like a tinder box and something like this is
incredibly concerning.
Speaker 3 (04:01):
Yes, well, one would hope that mister Biden and mister
Trump could issue a joints a trying to call for,
you know, condemning political violence and saying let's keep the
debate on the issues. But I don't think that's going
to happen. And it's you know, this episode, by the way,
(04:22):
does raise a bigger issue, which is at the shocking
level of private possession of arms in the United States.
And I'd like to think that this, this attempted assassination,
is there is a you know, the optimistic projection might
be this is so shocking, it will make everybody come
(04:44):
together and do something about gun control. But there's been
numerous acts of political violence, mass school shootings, et cetera,
and that hasn't ever changed the laws. So we are
in a situation where it's difficult to see where even
something like an attempted assassination and the former president will
bring about the gun control which but the majority of
(05:05):
Americans want. But it's not going to happen. I don't think,
because of the lack of leadership in Congress on this issue.
Speaker 2 (05:13):
You mentioned, Robert that America does have a tradition of
violence within its politics. And you mentioned Ronald Reagan, but
of course John F. Kennedy and Abraham Lincoln going right back,
has it, in your view, been getting worse in terms
of the level of violence we've seen or certainly the
rhetoric around violence.
Speaker 3 (05:31):
Well, I think there was an improvement after the traumatic
sixties when President Kennedy, Martin Luther King and then Robert
then President Kennedy's brother, Robert Kennedy were always fascinated and
then you had Governor Wallace in the South who was
very badly injured as an assassination attempt. So looking back
(05:53):
from the early seventies onwards, apart from the Reagan attempted assassination,
it seems like there's been a bit of an improvement
in terms of hits or attempted hits on political figures.
But I think America is deeply polarized now, TIRA in
a way that we haven't seen for a long time,
and it's that polarization has reached almost fever pitch. And
(06:17):
we shouldn't be surprised in so many hundreds of millions
of arms or in private hands that there may be
some irrational people out there who decide to act their
own initiative. The other thing fueling this is not just
the circulation of large amounts of weaponry, but is the
rise of the social media, which is fueling conspiracy theories
(06:39):
and non factual information. Already on the social media, many
people are explaining precisely in their terms what they think happened,
without having not about being privy to the information. So
I think the social media in a sense is fueling
some of the polarization that we're witnessing in America, just.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
On the gun control element of it. If the Democrats
were to pick that up as a platform going head
to November, do you think that would play well for
them or it may backfire on them?
Speaker 3 (07:14):
Yeah? Well, I mean American politics is there's a lot
of private money in American politics, and I think they
will consult with their donors before they made such a move.
And there are some very powerful lobby groups, not least
the They are INCA and the Rational National Government I'll
(07:34):
get this right, National Rifleman's Association, and they are very
strong lobby group and provide support for various politicians. So
it's very difficult to see how some such a strong
lobby group can lose. And also there's a constitutional commitment
to bear arms the Second Amendment and the US Constitution,
(07:55):
so that's going to be difficult to be undone in
a short period of time. A number of presidents have
tried to get greater gun control and they've often run
in into problems. So it may be an issue that
mister Biden doesn't really want to pick up. And mister
Biden at the moment is still trying to consolidate his
(08:15):
position as the front runner because he's come under a
lot of pressure from donors to the Democratic Party after
a poor performance in the debate with mister Trump on
the twenty seventh for tune.
Speaker 2 (08:27):
Just back to how Donald Trump may play this going forward,
and clearly he came under immense scrutiny after the January
sixth insurrection. Do you think he has learned from that
incident and he may be diplomatic with this response to
try and quell tensions or is it so much of
(08:48):
an unknown when it comes to someone like Donald Trump.
Speaker 3 (08:51):
It's very difficult to predict. But I thought his first
statement after the attempted assassination was measured, he first of
all sent condonances to those innocent people who were killed
at least one person and was killed and an others
severely injured. He sent condonencies to the families of those
people who attended the rally who were caught up in
(09:12):
the exchange between the shooter and the Secret Service, and
he also thanked the Secret Service people for protecting him
when he was in trouble. He also made the point,
and I think in his own way, it was a
conciliatory gesture. He said that it's incredible that something like
this can happen in the US. Well, you know, to
(09:34):
non Americans, it doesn't seem so incredible, given the level
of polarization and given what's been a bit of a
propensity for political violence in America. But it may have
been mister Trump's way of saying, actually, we've got to
make sure this doesn't get out of control.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
I hid looking ahead to the rest of the presidential campaign,
do you anticipate a reduction maybe in the public rallies
that both the presidential nominees have scheduled, or any changes
to the debates that were scheduled to come up in
the next couple of.
Speaker 3 (10:08):
Months To say what we do know? The next big
political event is the Republican National Convention, which is going
to be held very shortly in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and I
think it starts tomorrow Monday or maybe Tuesday our time.
And the thing to note there is that security was
(10:31):
already tight for the event. It will now be tripled,
I would think. And mister Trump said he'll be going,
and of course he's expected to receive the formal nomination
to be the Republican candidate at the presidential election on Thursday,
in which he will speak. So I think, you know,
the security at such an event like that will be very,
(10:53):
very rigorous. But the interesting thing was even at this
rally that we've just been talking about in Pittsburgh where
mister Trump was injured, slight injury to his ear, apparently,
the according to the people who attended the rally, the
security was very very tight there. So you know, you
can have tight security, but nothing is absolutely for proof.
(11:15):
If you see what I mean.
Speaker 2 (11:17):
Yeah, Can I transition just slightly, Robert, And no doubt
you would have seen parts of Joe Biden's press conference,
the first that he had done solo in eight months,
at the end of the NATO summit. From your point
of view, how what is the I suppose the likelihood
of the age of Biden still playing to the concerns
(11:40):
of the American people, and did that press conference allay
some of the fears the Democrats may.
Speaker 3 (11:46):
Have had, well, I don't think you completely allayed that
allayed definitely. Is the thing that's difficult to know about.
Mister Trump is a mister Sorry, I'm doing it now
mixing names up. Mister Biden. He did, of course, as
well as well documented. Mister Biden introduced President Zelenski as
President Putin, but he did correct it quickly. And I
(12:09):
think we, as I've just demonstrated, we often have a
slip of the tongue. Most people, that's quite normal. The
question that's difficult for mister Biden is that he's been,
in domestic political terms, reasonably successful in running the economy
and getting unemployment down. Inflation's been the problem, but as
beginning come down, so it's difficult to know whether he's
(12:36):
certainly much better on the set piece speeches. I think
the big worry for Democratic Condonas is whether he has
the capacity to get engaged in what I call the
rough and tumble of politics, where you have to debate
with your opponents and you have to really be prepared
(12:57):
for the cut and strust that goes with his press questioning.
He did recently well in the NATO conference. And the
interesting thing is, and of course we have to be
careful here because many of the foreign leaders, including around
may have been diplomatic. But mister Luxeon said he was
struck by how well briefed the president was, and a
number of other leaders said they found in their personal
(13:17):
interactions with mister Biden when it comes to the substance
he's on you know, he's recent me on top of things.
So what really struck me is watching the debate with
mister Trump was the apparent lack of energy and the
whispery voice. He didn't come across as vital and dynamic,
whereas mister Trump showed no sense of lack of energy,
(13:42):
and you know, he was very articulate.
Speaker 2 (13:45):
And obviously this event today, Robert will challenge Biden to
front up and again quill questions around his mental acuity.
This will be a big challenge for Biden as well.
Speaker 3 (13:58):
Yes, although I thought he struck the right tone when
he gave a public statement he said it was the
event was the attempted assassination, was sick there was no
place for it in American politics or society generally, and
he thoroughly condemned it and said that he would be
speaking to mister Trump. He said, I'll be speaking to
Donald shortly to convey his concerns to and wish mister
(14:22):
Trump and his family all the best in the aftermath
of this shocking event. So I thought he handled that
quite well. He said he was asked whether he thought
it was an attempted assassination, and he said he had an
opinion about that, but he didn't have the facts, so
he won't be vomiting further on that he has more information.
So I thought that was all very presidential and magnanimous,
(14:42):
And in a sense, you're quite right to ask this question,
because it's not just we're worried, you know, not worried,
but we're concerned how mister Trump may react, particularly that
fist bump gesture, which you know, I appreciate it was
a shock of being hit and he had survived, but
you know, that sort of punching the air sort of
(15:03):
gesture may would, if you like, reinforce some of the
most darker narratives. But I think also not just mister
Trump's reaction to these events. But also, mister Biden, I
think you're quite right. We'll play a part in determining
the impact of this. I think in the short term,
mister Trump is going to get a bit of a
bounce or a boost in the polls because I think
(15:25):
there'll be a nateral degree of sympathy. I mean, undergone
this ordeal and come through it. But I think that
will only be temporary. America's a deeply divided society, and
I think there's a perception in both Democrats and in
the Republican Party this is a must win election, and
(15:48):
in the sense that both believe America will be wrecked
if the other side win.
Speaker 2 (15:54):
Yeah, are fascinating times a year, and people keep saying that,
but it just keeps getting more frightening and more shocking. Robert,
thank you very much for your time this afternoon. Reallypreciate it.
Speaker 3 (16:06):
You're welcome.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
That is Robert Patman, director of International Studies and professor
of politics from Otago University. Got to take a break.
Then we're going to have a chat to Housing Minister
Chris Bishop. He's given an order to Hiango order to
up their convictions of abusive and unruly tenants, and we
will of course bring you developments of the shocking story
(16:27):
the suspected assassination of Donald Trump at a rally in
Pennsylvania as the afternoon continue.
Speaker 1 (16:34):
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