July 27, 2024 • 8 mins
Joe Biden and Barack Obama have both given their endorsement for Kamala Harris for Presidency, following Biden announcing he would be stepping down before the next election.
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks, I'd.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
Be Obviously, there's been big developments over the last week
or two. Momentum seems to be building for Carmla Harris
in the USA as the likely Democratic presidential candidate, with
her having received the endorsement recently of many people, but
more recently Barack and Michelle Obama for her presidency or
for her candidacy for the presidency. Should I say? She
(00:30):
has since raised a record amount of campaign donations. She's
kept herself busy meeting with world leaders. So what are
her chances and does her likely appointment mean a change
in tactic for the Republicans? Well with me now as
Politics and international Relations, Senior Lecturer Tim Fagin, Good afternoon,
Good Tim, Good to be with you. Thanks for your time.
(00:50):
Are you surprised with the way the things have panned
out in the last week or so regarding Carmla Harris's
prospects and political.
Speaker 3 (00:59):
Fortunes, not really known the last week. I think there
must have been a lot of behind the scenes movements
going on in the lead up to President Biden's decision
to step back from contending in the election this year.
And they clearly had a number of high profile Democratic
(01:20):
leaders lined up to offer their endorsements pretty soon after
President Biden's decision to step aside. You know, a new
candidate coming on the scene, there is going to bounce
the breakthrough the what was looking like a deadlock up
to the events of the last few weeks. Anyways, between
(01:40):
the two leading candidates, how.
Speaker 2 (01:42):
Do you write your chance as abating Trump now?
Speaker 3 (01:46):
Well, certainly the polling of the last week is tightened
back to the place where it had been prior to
the debate with President Biden, where he had such a
difficult time against Trump. It's now a neck and neck
within the statistical margin of error on most polls that
I've seen. So I think she's got a very good shot.
(02:06):
On the other hand, she's she's relatively unknown even as
vice president of many voters. Uh, many in in the
United States are on summer holiday. They'll be coming back
soon after Labor Day starting to pay attention. More So,
it remains to be seen how important was.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
The endorsement of the Obamas.
Speaker 3 (02:29):
I think it was. It was definitely important. He's a
He's an excellent campaigner. Michelle Obama is an excellent uh,
surrogate to have on the campaign trail. It was a
little surprising that he took him, you know, several days
to do so. But certainly that uh certain that that
is good found to help her.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
Are we going to see? Do you think it's going
to be an uncontested convention for the Democratic nomination?
Speaker 3 (02:55):
Well, when I was first thinking about this several days ago,
I wasn't sure. It seemed like there could still be
some opposition. But like I said, it seems as though
there was a lot of movement going on ahead of
the announcement, at least from where I'm sitting. And it certainly,
unless some scandal were to emerge between now and the convention,
(03:17):
I can't see it being contested at this stage.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
How important is her running mate pick and who's the
front runner? Do you think?
Speaker 3 (03:28):
Well, there's I think the running mate is going to
be critical this time. The election, as I mentioned, for
the polls are still quite close. It's still going to
be right a hotly contested election. There's a few governors
that have been sort of kicked around, including Andy Bushar
(03:48):
of Kentucky is one to watch, I think Josh Shapiro
of Pennsylvania, Mark Kelly, who's a US Senator from Arizona,
has picked up steam in the last couple of days.
I personally would be a bit surprised given how narrowly
divided the Senate is and the need for his vote
in the Senate. However, Arizona is a key swing state
(04:10):
and he's very popular, former astronaut and first you know,
a good accomplished senator, so he would be a good
choice as well.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
Hi, what do you think is going to actually dominate
in him? Is it going to be personality or policy
that decides the outcome of the presidential election.
Speaker 3 (04:28):
It's generally personality, I think more than more than policy. However,
with the swing voters, I think it remains to be seen.
There are a lot of issues that are you know,
resonate very strongly with women. We're living in the post
Row versus Wade era. There's been a lot of bad
(04:48):
press with President Trump's vice president nominee jd Vance, particularly
with women's issues in the last week. So it could
be a bit of both. But certainly personality I think
will matter and the vice presidential choices for Kamala Herris,
you think.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
They're going to have to change tax attack the Republicans,
because it seems that a lot of their trolling was
sort of predicated on having a crack at Biden for
the next few months.
Speaker 3 (05:17):
Certainly their campaign was built on that, and they were
betting on that, And I even think the selection of JD.
Vance was made in response to the anticipation that they
would be taking on President Biden. So I think that,
you know, to your earlier point, it may be that
it becomes a bit more policy oriented on both sides
(05:38):
because now there's an actual difference of opinion, and you know,
between the parties that transcends the personalities of sort of
negative traits of President Biden.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
A lot of people always talk up youth vote, I mean,
and then the number of people are registering to vote
in young voters and the endorsement of you know that
I can't remember the name of that singer where she
was described as brat and all that sort of stuff.
So there's a lot made of the youth vote. Is
that actually going to be signific.
Speaker 3 (06:07):
I think it is this time. You know, it's a
question as to motivating them, and that is a course
sort of fortune telling at some to a certain degree.
At this stage, they don't tend younger voters to turn
out in high numbers historically, but with such a consequential election,
with Kamala Harris's skill at breaking through to younger voters,
(06:29):
it certainly could help make the difference.
Speaker 2 (06:33):
Okay, just on to more recent things. So Trump recently
on the last twenty four hours or something, he told
Christians it was on Friday. Sorry, that quote if they vote,
if they vote for him this November, he says, quote,
in four years, you don't have to vote again. We'll
have it fixed so good, You're not going to have
to vote. What that sounds pretty dictatorial? Am I reading
(06:59):
too much into it? Or is it a real worry?
Speaker 3 (07:03):
Well, from where I stand and I've watched the clip,
I felt like what he was saying more was get
behind me, get me in, and we'll continue to push
all the policies you care about to the point where
it won't matter. We control the Supreme Court. We'll make
all the changes that you want to see. So you
could just you could sit in your hands in four years,
(07:23):
but I need you now. So I sort of interpreted
that as less alarmist. However, he does have a history
of sort of playing around with these dictatorial themes, and
so it certainly plays into that theme. However, that theme
doesn't seem to be as high on the priority list
with undecided voters. So if you're looking at them, the
(07:45):
Democrats certainly will make some hay out of those statements.
But are they going to Are they really going to
move or swing undecided voters away from Trump if they're
thinking policy wise that he might have something to offer.
I don't think so. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (08:01):
Okay, Hi, look, I really appreciate your time, Thanks so much,
and we'll talk to yougain sometime.
Speaker 1 (08:07):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to News
Talk ZEDB weekends from three pm, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks, I'd.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
Be Obviously, there's been big developments over the last week
or two. Momentum seems to be building for Carmla Harris
in the USA as the likely Democratic presidential candidate, with
her having received the endorsement recently of many people, but
more recently Barack and Michelle Obama for her presidency or
for her candidacy for the presidency. Should I say? She
(00:30):
has since raised a record amount of campaign donations. She's
kept herself busy meeting with world leaders. So what are
her chances and does her likely appointment mean a change
in tactic for the Republicans? Well with me now as
Politics and international Relations, Senior Lecturer Tim Fagin, Good afternoon,
Good Tim, Good to be with you. Thanks for your time.
(00:50):
Are you surprised with the way the things have panned
out in the last week or so regarding Carmla Harris's
prospects and political.
Speaker 3 (00:59):
Fortunes, not really known the last week. I think there
must have been a lot of behind the scenes movements
going on in the lead up to President Biden's decision
to step back from contending in the election this year.
And they clearly had a number of high profile Democratic
(01:20):
leaders lined up to offer their endorsements pretty soon after
President Biden's decision to step aside. You know, a new
candidate coming on the scene, there is going to bounce
the breakthrough the what was looking like a deadlock up
to the events of the last few weeks. Anyways, between
(01:40):
the two leading candidates, how.
Speaker 2 (01:42):
Do you write your chance as abating Trump now?
Speaker 3 (01:46):
Well, certainly the polling of the last week is tightened
back to the place where it had been prior to
the debate with President Biden, where he had such a
difficult time against Trump. It's now a neck and neck
within the statistical margin of error on most polls that
I've seen. So I think she's got a very good shot.
(02:06):
On the other hand, she's she's relatively unknown even as
vice president of many voters. Uh, many in in the
United States are on summer holiday. They'll be coming back
soon after Labor Day starting to pay attention. More So,
it remains to be seen how important was.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
The endorsement of the Obamas.
Speaker 3 (02:29):
I think it was. It was definitely important. He's a
He's an excellent campaigner. Michelle Obama is an excellent uh,
surrogate to have on the campaign trail. It was a
little surprising that he took him, you know, several days
to do so. But certainly that uh certain that that
is good found to help her.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
Are we going to see? Do you think it's going
to be an uncontested convention for the Democratic nomination?
Speaker 3 (02:55):
Well, when I was first thinking about this several days ago,
I wasn't sure. It seemed like there could still be
some opposition. But like I said, it seems as though
there was a lot of movement going on ahead of
the announcement, at least from where I'm sitting. And it certainly,
unless some scandal were to emerge between now and the convention,
(03:17):
I can't see it being contested at this stage.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
How important is her running mate pick and who's the
front runner? Do you think?
Speaker 3 (03:28):
Well, there's I think the running mate is going to
be critical this time. The election, as I mentioned, for
the polls are still quite close. It's still going to
be right a hotly contested election. There's a few governors
that have been sort of kicked around, including Andy Bushar
(03:48):
of Kentucky is one to watch, I think Josh Shapiro
of Pennsylvania, Mark Kelly, who's a US Senator from Arizona,
has picked up steam in the last couple of days.
I personally would be a bit surprised given how narrowly
divided the Senate is and the need for his vote
in the Senate. However, Arizona is a key swing state
(04:10):
and he's very popular, former astronaut and first you know,
a good accomplished senator, so he would be a good
choice as well.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
Hi, what do you think is going to actually dominate
in him? Is it going to be personality or policy
that decides the outcome of the presidential election.
Speaker 3 (04:28):
It's generally personality, I think more than more than policy. However,
with the swing voters, I think it remains to be seen.
There are a lot of issues that are you know,
resonate very strongly with women. We're living in the post
Row versus Wade era. There's been a lot of bad
(04:48):
press with President Trump's vice president nominee jd Vance, particularly
with women's issues in the last week. So it could
be a bit of both. But certainly personality I think
will matter and the vice presidential choices for Kamala Herris,
you think.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
They're going to have to change tax attack the Republicans,
because it seems that a lot of their trolling was
sort of predicated on having a crack at Biden for
the next few months.
Speaker 3 (05:17):
Certainly their campaign was built on that, and they were
betting on that, And I even think the selection of JD.
Vance was made in response to the anticipation that they
would be taking on President Biden. So I think that,
you know, to your earlier point, it may be that
it becomes a bit more policy oriented on both sides
(05:38):
because now there's an actual difference of opinion, and you know,
between the parties that transcends the personalities of sort of
negative traits of President Biden.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
A lot of people always talk up youth vote, I mean,
and then the number of people are registering to vote
in young voters and the endorsement of you know that
I can't remember the name of that singer where she
was described as brat and all that sort of stuff.
So there's a lot made of the youth vote. Is
that actually going to be signific.
Speaker 3 (06:07):
I think it is this time. You know, it's a
question as to motivating them, and that is a course
sort of fortune telling at some to a certain degree.
At this stage, they don't tend younger voters to turn
out in high numbers historically, but with such a consequential election,
with Kamala Harris's skill at breaking through to younger voters,
(06:29):
it certainly could help make the difference.
Speaker 2 (06:33):
Okay, just on to more recent things. So Trump recently
on the last twenty four hours or something, he told
Christians it was on Friday. Sorry, that quote if they vote,
if they vote for him this November, he says, quote,
in four years, you don't have to vote again. We'll
have it fixed so good, You're not going to have
to vote. What that sounds pretty dictatorial? Am I reading
(06:59):
too much into it? Or is it a real worry?
Speaker 3 (07:03):
Well, from where I stand and I've watched the clip,
I felt like what he was saying more was get
behind me, get me in, and we'll continue to push
all the policies you care about to the point where
it won't matter. We control the Supreme Court. We'll make
all the changes that you want to see. So you
could just you could sit in your hands in four years,
(07:23):
but I need you now. So I sort of interpreted
that as less alarmist. However, he does have a history
of sort of playing around with these dictatorial themes, and
so it certainly plays into that theme. However, that theme
doesn't seem to be as high on the priority list
with undecided voters. So if you're looking at them, the
(07:45):
Democrats certainly will make some hay out of those statements.
But are they going to Are they really going to
move or swing undecided voters away from Trump if they're
thinking policy wise that he might have something to offer.
I don't think so. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (08:01):
Okay, Hi, look, I really appreciate your time, Thanks so much,
and we'll talk to yougain sometime.
Speaker 1 (08:07):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to News
Talk ZEDB weekends from three pm, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio
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