November 9, 2024 • 9 mins
The United States is one of New Zealand's most significant partners, and the big question is what Donald Trump's win means for Kiwis.
Maurice Williamson is the former New Zealand Consol-General in Los Angeles and he joins to discuss the impact for New Zealand.
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News talks'd be.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
The United States is one of New Zeald's most significant partners.
A big question at the moment is what does a
Donald Trump win mean for us here? From potential tarifs
to discussions around international conflicts, old geopolitical thing. How much
will it impact? Kiwis and Maurice Williamson, among other things,
is a former New Zealand Consul general. And he joins me, now, Morris, good, afternoon.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
Good.
Speaker 3 (00:30):
I've learned to him the.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Kindsight's twenty twenty. Of course, a lot of people demonstrating
it now. But did you see that landslide coming?
Speaker 3 (00:37):
Ah? Yes, In fact, if you talked to her the
duples el Andia, he sent it to her several days
in advance. And I said, and I'll tell you why
I predicted it. It's no great magic or I'm no
great guru. I'll tell you why. I've been in politics
for so long, and I was thirty years member of Parliament.
And what I can tell you is I've been on
both sides of the wave, the sweeping you into power
(00:59):
and the washing you out when it's time. And I
tell you what it's all to do with right direction
wrong direction. Now it's not to do with personalities, because
take Jasinda Ardern. She won a huge electoral victory and
then would have taken a thrashing had she stayed saying
for the whole lots of people who at points where
they were at their peak and then so it's not
(01:21):
the personality, it's not even the policy. It's to do
with right direction wrong direction. If the country is heading
in the right direction, if you're paying the must comfortably,
you're filling up at the gas and it's fine that
the groceries are all right, your kids are doing well
at school, and you've got some money left over for holiday,
then you'll stay with the current racing. It'll just roll on.
(01:42):
But boy, when it turns sour and it's hurting and
you can't afford the mortgage or you're struggling and you're
worried about where your job is going to get close
down the moment you get into that wrong direction stuff,
it's time to punish people who are in office, even
if it's not their fault. I mean, we took a
real painting in the nineties from the Asian economic crisis,
and national was blamed for it. We weren't even involved
(02:04):
in it, but it was. It had an impact. So
inflation had taken away people spending money, and inflation is
the is the real real pain for the voter. People
cannot stand inflation. So I just knew how a right direction,
wrong direction that wouldn't really matter who was coming at them. Now,
Harris had one chance, one chance to actually get herself
(02:25):
back in the game, and that was to distance herself
from Biden. She should have said after she was appointed.
She should have said, look, when I'm vice president, I
don't have a lot to say. I'd actually get elected.
Biden got elected, not me, but I don't like some
of the things he did. I don't agree with some
of the things, and I wouldn't have done it that
way and abide. But she actually went almost straight out
of the block saying, I agree with everything he's done
(02:47):
and I'm backing him. Well, you've made yourself the incumbent. Yeah,
at the moment, you've done that, and I right the wrong.
Seventy percent of all the polls I saw said the
country's going in the wrong direction.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
Just before we get onto what it means for us
at the hindsight, I've got on it is. Also when
I look at Kama Harris's campaign, it was all about
sort of women vote for me, Blacks and Hispanics vote
for me. It was a lot of identity politics, you
should vote mean for me because of who you are,
and that I think was that part of it as well,
or it didn't matter what.
Speaker 3 (03:17):
No, it was it was. I mean, she was trying
to save the deck chair furniture as the ship was
going down. But all I can tell you is that
that's actually it doesn't work anymore. The idea that the
Democrats used to think, you know, well, we've got all
the non college graduates on the Democrats side because those
filthy rich Republicans they've got all the college graduates. Well
(03:39):
it turned out that if you look at the non
college degree people, Trump top fifty five percent of that,
and it was the Democrats that took the graduates. So
it was all to do with people hurting and wanting
somebody who looked like they were going to take some
of that hurt away, and the identity politics came through.
The abortion didn't figure in terms of voting a whole
(04:02):
range of blacks of for the Democrats and won't be wrong,
and in fact, Trump did quite well with some of
the men. He didn't do that well with black women.
But you know, the Latino men's vote incredible that Trump
could get forty seven percent of that. People would in
the past that he'd be lucky to get seventeen percent
of that. And I'll tell you one that I love that.
(04:23):
Everone's going on about climate change and climate changes everything,
and you've got to have your politics or based around
climate change. Well, in the last few months, two places
have taken an absolute battering from hurricanes and sort of
just shocking climate change stuff, and North Carolina and Florida.
North Carolina has been digging bodies out from under buildings
(04:44):
and there's just been appalling. Guess what Trump says, climate
change is the hope we're going to pull out of
Paris Accord. Oh that's all nonsense when you say, well,
that's going to kill him in North Carolina and in Florida.
But he actually increased his vote in both those states,
so that couldn't climate change didn't even play apartment blimey.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
Now, what does it mean for all the tariff I reckoned, like,
who's going to escape the tariffs? And me big tariffs
on China. There are already big tariffs on China from
the Biden administration, and.
Speaker 3 (05:13):
He kept what Trump had put in.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
You.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
Yeah, so what does it mean for us? I guess,
And what do you anticipate on what we can do
and what you know the ramifications are.
Speaker 3 (05:22):
I'd recommend everyone stays very can't have a cup of
tea and just calm down because a lot of this,
a lot of this is gamesmanship. A lot of this
is trying to force the hand of the others into
doing certain things or not doing certain things. I mean,
Trump's going to use tariffs, big tariffs to scare China off,
trying to look at going into Taiwan at any point.
(05:42):
You so you do that and we'll put a two
hundred percent tariff on. I don't think it will be
anywhere near as bad as everyone is saying. And I
tell you why, I don't think that. I think it'll
be a little bit of brinkmanship, gamesmanship. He may do
something with China in terms of tariff's up or tariffs
where they are, or keep but on. You know, we're
a friend of America and they recognize that. Every time
I went to meetings in the States, especially in Washington.
(06:05):
They love New Zealand and they love us for a
whole range of reasons. And more importantly, we're so small
that we don't tip the scales in any direction on anything.
So I think if there was any tariffs that came
in to hurt us, he didn't really bring tariffs in
last time around for us. There was a little bit
on aluminium, but it was a technicality to do with
security reasons of metal supply or something, but it was
(06:28):
a very small amount of money for a very small
portfolio of stuff. I don't think it'll be anywhere near
as bad as the rhetoric will be. And I think
we should only start panicking if we actually see the
whites of his eyes and he says today, I'm announcing
we're going to be doing the following, and this is
how it's going to work in New Zealand. You're getting screwed.
Your wines and your lamb and your keyw fruit will
(06:49):
all be stuffed and won't. But I think we could say, wow,
that's way more worse than we thought. But I've had
so many people in a tailspin panic about it. The
guy's a real showman and he's really good at calling
people's bluff about. You either do the following or we will.
I don't think a lot of it will pan out,
so I'm not too worried yet.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
I guess it's also not in their interest to put
tariffs on goods that they can't produce enough of. So,
for instance, if they love our beef and they're not
producing enough beef, so all it's going to do is
hurt the consumer. If they go shove tariffs on our.
Speaker 3 (07:20):
Meat, they've hit the consumer badly. And I can tell
you I've made this point to so many audiences since
I've been back. I couldn't believe the number of times.
And I promise you it's a lot of times. I
was either in a butcher shop or a supermarket or
a wine shop. Now I've just heard Americans saying to
the people, excuse me, where can I get the New
Zealand Savenyon blocks They're over in Aisle nine. Okay, lady
(07:42):
saying that is that Kiwi lamb New Zealand lamb No, No,
that's from Chile. I don't want it. It's really good lamp. No,
you're not got New Zealand lamb No, I'll find it elsewhere,
so our products got an enormously good name, that New
Zealand brand on wines kiwifruit. I've heard people say, I
don't want Californian kiwi fruit, they're rubbish with the New
Zealand ones. So I don't think that consumers would like
(08:05):
to have all that with him, because the one thing
that Trump realizes he got there from there's only one
word that got Trump to wear us now, and that's inflation. Yeah,
inflation that killed the economy, drove people's pocketbooks into the negative,
had forced buddy mortgage s sales, and sort of. He
does not want to bring in big tariffs because tariffs
calls inflation get just add price to what the consumer's paying.
(08:27):
So he'll play this game very carefully. I do think
he'll play it tough and hard with China because they're
a bad player and he needs to keep them. But
I think as far as a bit, I think at
the bottom of nine spreadsheets and he still want to
come to New Zealand in terms of what am I
What am I going to do to them? Is my view.
Speaker 2 (08:44):
So your advice would be, like, you know, separate. A
lot of people either love them or loath them, I
tend to loathe them, but I must have I'm sort
of fairly sanguine about it. So your advice to people
to be like, look, just take a deep breath, have
a cup of teena lie down, and things will be
all right.
Speaker 1 (08:57):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
And more importantly, you know the number of people I
know who loathe him. Loathe him for a whole lot
of the silly things he says and does, and the
porn star or he did this, but actually, if you drill,
if you rip all that stuff away, because that doesn't
change the direction of the country, so he cannot the
economy and so on. He actually did some damn good
stuff within the economy in terms of deregulating and getting
(09:19):
rid of a whole lot of bureaucracy and so on.
I don't think he will be that bad for the world.
I don't think he'll be that bad for New Zealand. Yes,
if he was standing to be a morals campaigner, he
wouldn't have got three bucks. But there are people up
there who just said, I can't stand what the guy's
private life is and what he says. But actually I'm
(09:40):
voting for him because I think he'll get us out
of the mire We're in at prison excellent.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
Hey Maris, I really appreciate your insight today. Thanks so
much for excellent.
Speaker 1 (09:49):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to News
Talk Z'B weekends from three pm, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News talks'd be.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
The United States is one of New Zeald's most significant partners.
A big question at the moment is what does a
Donald Trump win mean for us here? From potential tarifs
to discussions around international conflicts, old geopolitical thing. How much
will it impact? Kiwis and Maurice Williamson, among other things,
is a former New Zealand Consul general. And he joins me, now, Morris, good, afternoon.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
Good.
Speaker 3 (00:30):
I've learned to him the.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Kindsight's twenty twenty. Of course, a lot of people demonstrating
it now. But did you see that landslide coming?
Speaker 3 (00:37):
Ah? Yes, In fact, if you talked to her the
duples el Andia, he sent it to her several days
in advance. And I said, and I'll tell you why
I predicted it. It's no great magic or I'm no
great guru. I'll tell you why. I've been in politics
for so long, and I was thirty years member of Parliament.
And what I can tell you is I've been on
both sides of the wave, the sweeping you into power
(00:59):
and the washing you out when it's time. And I
tell you what it's all to do with right direction
wrong direction. Now it's not to do with personalities, because
take Jasinda Ardern. She won a huge electoral victory and
then would have taken a thrashing had she stayed saying
for the whole lots of people who at points where
they were at their peak and then so it's not
(01:21):
the personality, it's not even the policy. It's to do
with right direction wrong direction. If the country is heading
in the right direction, if you're paying the must comfortably,
you're filling up at the gas and it's fine that
the groceries are all right, your kids are doing well
at school, and you've got some money left over for holiday,
then you'll stay with the current racing. It'll just roll on.
(01:42):
But boy, when it turns sour and it's hurting and
you can't afford the mortgage or you're struggling and you're
worried about where your job is going to get close
down the moment you get into that wrong direction stuff,
it's time to punish people who are in office, even
if it's not their fault. I mean, we took a
real painting in the nineties from the Asian economic crisis,
and national was blamed for it. We weren't even involved
(02:04):
in it, but it was. It had an impact. So
inflation had taken away people spending money, and inflation is
the is the real real pain for the voter. People
cannot stand inflation. So I just knew how a right direction,
wrong direction that wouldn't really matter who was coming at them. Now,
Harris had one chance, one chance to actually get herself
(02:25):
back in the game, and that was to distance herself
from Biden. She should have said after she was appointed.
She should have said, look, when I'm vice president, I
don't have a lot to say. I'd actually get elected.
Biden got elected, not me, but I don't like some
of the things he did. I don't agree with some
of the things, and I wouldn't have done it that
way and abide. But she actually went almost straight out
of the block saying, I agree with everything he's done
(02:47):
and I'm backing him. Well, you've made yourself the incumbent. Yeah,
at the moment, you've done that, and I right the wrong.
Seventy percent of all the polls I saw said the
country's going in the wrong direction.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
Just before we get onto what it means for us
at the hindsight, I've got on it is. Also when
I look at Kama Harris's campaign, it was all about
sort of women vote for me, Blacks and Hispanics vote
for me. It was a lot of identity politics, you
should vote mean for me because of who you are,
and that I think was that part of it as well,
or it didn't matter what.
Speaker 3 (03:17):
No, it was it was. I mean, she was trying
to save the deck chair furniture as the ship was
going down. But all I can tell you is that
that's actually it doesn't work anymore. The idea that the
Democrats used to think, you know, well, we've got all
the non college graduates on the Democrats side because those
filthy rich Republicans they've got all the college graduates. Well
(03:39):
it turned out that if you look at the non
college degree people, Trump top fifty five percent of that,
and it was the Democrats that took the graduates. So
it was all to do with people hurting and wanting
somebody who looked like they were going to take some
of that hurt away, and the identity politics came through.
The abortion didn't figure in terms of voting a whole
(04:02):
range of blacks of for the Democrats and won't be wrong,
and in fact, Trump did quite well with some of
the men. He didn't do that well with black women.
But you know, the Latino men's vote incredible that Trump
could get forty seven percent of that. People would in
the past that he'd be lucky to get seventeen percent
of that. And I'll tell you one that I love that.
(04:23):
Everone's going on about climate change and climate changes everything,
and you've got to have your politics or based around
climate change. Well, in the last few months, two places
have taken an absolute battering from hurricanes and sort of
just shocking climate change stuff, and North Carolina and Florida.
North Carolina has been digging bodies out from under buildings
(04:44):
and there's just been appalling. Guess what Trump says, climate
change is the hope we're going to pull out of
Paris Accord. Oh that's all nonsense when you say, well,
that's going to kill him in North Carolina and in Florida.
But he actually increased his vote in both those states,
so that couldn't climate change didn't even play apartment blimey.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
Now, what does it mean for all the tariff I reckoned, like,
who's going to escape the tariffs? And me big tariffs
on China. There are already big tariffs on China from
the Biden administration, and.
Speaker 3 (05:13):
He kept what Trump had put in.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
You.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
Yeah, so what does it mean for us? I guess,
And what do you anticipate on what we can do
and what you know the ramifications are.
Speaker 3 (05:22):
I'd recommend everyone stays very can't have a cup of
tea and just calm down because a lot of this,
a lot of this is gamesmanship. A lot of this
is trying to force the hand of the others into
doing certain things or not doing certain things. I mean,
Trump's going to use tariffs, big tariffs to scare China off,
trying to look at going into Taiwan at any point.
(05:42):
You so you do that and we'll put a two
hundred percent tariff on. I don't think it will be
anywhere near as bad as everyone is saying. And I
tell you why, I don't think that. I think it'll
be a little bit of brinkmanship, gamesmanship. He may do
something with China in terms of tariff's up or tariffs
where they are, or keep but on. You know, we're
a friend of America and they recognize that. Every time
I went to meetings in the States, especially in Washington.
(06:05):
They love New Zealand and they love us for a
whole range of reasons. And more importantly, we're so small
that we don't tip the scales in any direction on anything.
So I think if there was any tariffs that came
in to hurt us, he didn't really bring tariffs in
last time around for us. There was a little bit
on aluminium, but it was a technicality to do with
security reasons of metal supply or something, but it was
(06:28):
a very small amount of money for a very small
portfolio of stuff. I don't think it'll be anywhere near
as bad as the rhetoric will be. And I think
we should only start panicking if we actually see the
whites of his eyes and he says today, I'm announcing
we're going to be doing the following, and this is
how it's going to work in New Zealand. You're getting screwed.
Your wines and your lamb and your keyw fruit will
(06:49):
all be stuffed and won't. But I think we could say, wow,
that's way more worse than we thought. But I've had
so many people in a tailspin panic about it. The
guy's a real showman and he's really good at calling
people's bluff about. You either do the following or we will.
I don't think a lot of it will pan out,
so I'm not too worried yet.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
I guess it's also not in their interest to put
tariffs on goods that they can't produce enough of. So,
for instance, if they love our beef and they're not
producing enough beef, so all it's going to do is
hurt the consumer. If they go shove tariffs on our.
Speaker 3 (07:20):
Meat, they've hit the consumer badly. And I can tell
you I've made this point to so many audiences since
I've been back. I couldn't believe the number of times.
And I promise you it's a lot of times. I
was either in a butcher shop or a supermarket or
a wine shop. Now I've just heard Americans saying to
the people, excuse me, where can I get the New
Zealand Savenyon blocks They're over in Aisle nine. Okay, lady
(07:42):
saying that is that Kiwi lamb New Zealand lamb No, No,
that's from Chile. I don't want it. It's really good lamp. No,
you're not got New Zealand lamb No, I'll find it elsewhere,
so our products got an enormously good name, that New
Zealand brand on wines kiwifruit. I've heard people say, I
don't want Californian kiwi fruit, they're rubbish with the New
Zealand ones. So I don't think that consumers would like
(08:05):
to have all that with him, because the one thing
that Trump realizes he got there from there's only one
word that got Trump to wear us now, and that's inflation. Yeah,
inflation that killed the economy, drove people's pocketbooks into the negative,
had forced buddy mortgage s sales, and sort of. He
does not want to bring in big tariffs because tariffs
calls inflation get just add price to what the consumer's paying.
(08:27):
So he'll play this game very carefully. I do think
he'll play it tough and hard with China because they're
a bad player and he needs to keep them. But
I think as far as a bit, I think at
the bottom of nine spreadsheets and he still want to
come to New Zealand in terms of what am I
What am I going to do to them? Is my view.
Speaker 2 (08:44):
So your advice would be, like, you know, separate. A
lot of people either love them or loath them, I
tend to loathe them, but I must have I'm sort
of fairly sanguine about it. So your advice to people
to be like, look, just take a deep breath, have
a cup of teena lie down, and things will be
all right.
Speaker 1 (08:57):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
And more importantly, you know the number of people I
know who loathe him. Loathe him for a whole lot
of the silly things he says and does, and the
porn star or he did this, but actually, if you drill,
if you rip all that stuff away, because that doesn't
change the direction of the country, so he cannot the
economy and so on. He actually did some damn good
stuff within the economy in terms of deregulating and getting
(09:19):
rid of a whole lot of bureaucracy and so on.
I don't think he will be that bad for the world.
I don't think he'll be that bad for New Zealand. Yes,
if he was standing to be a morals campaigner, he
wouldn't have got three bucks. But there are people up
there who just said, I can't stand what the guy's
private life is and what he says. But actually I'm
(09:40):
voting for him because I think he'll get us out
of the mire We're in at prison excellent.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
Hey Maris, I really appreciate your insight today. Thanks so
much for excellent.
Speaker 1 (09:49):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to News
Talk Z'B weekends from three pm, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio
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