March 15, 2025 • 7 mins
Trade Minister Todd McClay has met with his United States counterpart, Jamieson Greer, to discuss the trade relationship between New Zealand and the U.S.
In the 45 minute meeting, McClay stressed the importance of an open market between the countries, and Greer agreed to continue dialogue throughout the changing trade policies.
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks EDB.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Trade Minister top and Play has met with his United
States counterpout, jameson Grea to discuss the trade relationship between
New Zealand and the US. Remember this is in the
context of Trump's twenty five percent tariffs on Canadian and
Mexican goods, as well as a threat to impose a
two hundred percent tariff on European wine, champagne and alcoholic products,
and the threat of reciprocal tariffs on allies and adversaries alike.
(00:33):
So in the forty five minute meeting, Maclay stressed the
importance it stressed the importance of an open market between
the countries and an agreement to continue dialogue across throughout
the changing trade policies. Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters he's
still in the States discussing trade, among other things. And
Oliver Hartwich is the executive director of the New Zealand
(00:53):
Initiative and he's with us now.
Speaker 3 (00:54):
Good afternoon, Good afternoon.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
So I see the report. Just the report of their
meeting mentions how they talked about the importance of open,
fair market access between the two countries. In the context
of what we're reading, that sounds like meaningless words given
the contact of the States recently, isn't it.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
It sounds like a softly softly approach from our government.
They want to play it very diplomatically, very carefully, because
they know how easy it is to anger the Americans.
And of course New Zealand's position in the context of
the trade relationship is a bit difficult because we are
running a trade surplus with the United States and as
we all know, of course Donald Trump wants to change that,
(01:34):
so he wants to actually correct that, and so we
have to be very careful in how we approach these talks.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
How bad could it be for us?
Speaker 3 (01:43):
Potentially it could be very bad, because I mean, first
of all, the Trump administration is a bit unpredictable when
it comes to trade. We have seen what they're doing
to other countries. We have seen it in a Canadian example,
We have seen it with Mexico, with the European Union,
and of course China as well. So it could be bad.
It could be that they're targeting our agricultural exports. That's
where we're extremely vulnerable. We haven't got an easy way
(02:05):
to switch these exports around and send them to other
countries instead. So if they're really pulling through and they're
putting the twenty five percent tariffs on our agricultural product produce,
then that would hit us really hard. And there are
other dangers as well, of course, because you might have
seen there was a I think it's still called tweet
these days from Malcolm Turnbill talking about that America now
(02:27):
targets Australia's pharmaceutical import scheme and we've got our own,
of course, we've got farmac. And one of the contentious
points in the trade relationship between our countries could be
that the Americans perceive they're not getting the right price
for their pharmaceutical exports touwizialand which is a significant part
of American exports to mwisium. So there are many ways
in which America could really hurt us if they wanted to.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
As a speaking of Malcolm Turnbull, that's one of the
dangers for US is having one of our own politicians
or ex politicians go off sort of the go off
the script and catch the President's attention in the wrong
way because he hasn't done Australia any favors.
Speaker 3 (03:06):
Well, I think that was the reason why Phil Golf
is no longer the High Commissioner to London. I mean, frankly,
that's exactly the same kind of talk that we now
get from Malcolm turmul except we got it from someone
who was still in a government official position. No, we
have to be extremely careful if we anger the Americans,
if we provoke them, we might trigger even worse response.
So this quietly, quietly approach that we now get from
(03:29):
Todd McLay seems to be exactly the right way to
go about it.
Speaker 2 (03:32):
Are there particular arguments that we mount or is it
just a case of keeping our head down, being as
diplomatic and treading gently and trying to charm the other side.
Speaker 3 (03:42):
Well, the arguments that Todd mclay's making is a sensible one.
He says, we're exporting stuff to America that they could
not potentially supply themselves. So he mentions beef exports. A
lot of New Zealand beef goes into American hamburger production,
basically into fast food, and they wouldn't be able to
replace that, perhaps in a similar kind of way that
they're currently finding they haven't got enough ex and they
(04:04):
even trying to get them from the European Union that
they've just slapped tariffs on. So there are some arguments
Tot maclay can make to the Americans that actually the
trade relationship is complementary. So we're importing stuff from America
that we don't even produce ourselves, like pharmaceuticals, and meanwhile
they're getting high quality produced from US that they would
struggle to source if they put teriffs on us.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
Has the trade war impacted us at all yet or
is it more just it Probably it's just impacted us
because of the stock prices.
Speaker 3 (04:33):
It is certainly impacting us via the stock market, and
everything else will take a little bit longer because until
we have these trade effects materialize, that can take a while.
But what's already happening is, of course, that we see
a massive amount of uncertainty created in international markets for
companies planning their value chains, for companies and planning to
locate their future factories and distribution centers. This is a
(04:57):
massive headache now because you can't rely on stuff anymore.
I mean we've seen it with Canada last week. I
mean this was probably of world first. We haven't in
twenty tariff chart. So starting the morning with twenty five percent,
then going up to fifty percent, and then going down
to twenty five percent after six hours. I've never seen
anything like it. So it's that kind of behavior, that
kind of uncertain to create it that is really damaging
(05:19):
to everyone.
Speaker 2 (05:20):
Does it somewhere? I'm not sure if I heard Todd
McLay talking about potential for flexibility with other markets, but
there are there potentially opportunities that might pop out as
a result of other companies. I'm sorry other countries have
been hard hit by these tariffs. Maybe cooperating more with
the likes of US and each other.
Speaker 3 (05:41):
That will be a positive outcome. But again, all of
this takes time. I mean, we all know how long
it takes to negotiate free trade agreements. They are sometimes
going through ten, twelve, fifteen rounds until they get anywhere
closer to a solution. That can drag over years and
sometimes decades. I mean, just look at how long it
took us to negotiate that free trade agreement with the
European Union, for example. So this is not something you
(06:02):
could switch overnight.
Speaker 2 (06:03):
No, I guess, well, actually on that then it can
take years and years and years, is it? Likely to
speed up or is that a possible if I was
going to be naively optimistic, is a possible side effect
that we might actually find that we can expedite some
of these agreements that we've been struggling to get for
years and years.
Speaker 3 (06:20):
Well, that would be a positive effect. I mean, so far,
I haven't really seen much of that. It's pretty much
the same, of course, in the military space. I mean,
where the whole world order is now in question. You
see now that countries will try to find different defense partners,
different allies, and we see exactly that in parallel happening
in the trade world. But all of this will take time.
I mean, as you say, it would be nice if
(06:41):
it could be sped up a little bit because times
are urgent and Trump doesn't waste any time, and it
might actually surprise us several times over the next few weeks.
So it will be nice to speed that up. But
it's not the way we've operated so far.
Speaker 2 (06:53):
Do you hold out any sort of hope that we
can sort of emerge unscathed by just being very clever
and diplomatically not being big enough to worry about.
Speaker 3 (07:02):
No, because it's quite the opposite, actually, where more countries,
we haven't really got a massive opportunity to turn things
around and really have an influence on what's happening in Washington,
so we will be a price taker. And I have
seen some modeling suggesting that our GDP, if it really
comes to a global trade war started by the US,
might go down by about a percent of GDP and
that's a massive hit to the economy. So unfortunately, that's
(07:25):
just a scenario we have to be prepared for.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
Well, Oliver, I really appreciate your time this afternoon, and
we'll just keep our fingers crossed over. That's Oliver Hart.
Rotchie is the executive director of the New Zealand Initiative.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to news
Talks it'd be weekends from three pm, or follow the
podcast on iHeartRadio.
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks EDB.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Trade Minister top and Play has met with his United
States counterpout, jameson Grea to discuss the trade relationship between
New Zealand and the US. Remember this is in the
context of Trump's twenty five percent tariffs on Canadian and
Mexican goods, as well as a threat to impose a
two hundred percent tariff on European wine, champagne and alcoholic products,
and the threat of reciprocal tariffs on allies and adversaries alike.
(00:33):
So in the forty five minute meeting, Maclay stressed the
importance it stressed the importance of an open market between
the countries and an agreement to continue dialogue across throughout
the changing trade policies. Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters he's
still in the States discussing trade, among other things. And
Oliver Hartwich is the executive director of the New Zealand
(00:53):
Initiative and he's with us now.
Speaker 3 (00:54):
Good afternoon, Good afternoon.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
So I see the report. Just the report of their
meeting mentions how they talked about the importance of open,
fair market access between the two countries. In the context
of what we're reading, that sounds like meaningless words given
the contact of the States recently, isn't it.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
It sounds like a softly softly approach from our government.
They want to play it very diplomatically, very carefully, because
they know how easy it is to anger the Americans.
And of course New Zealand's position in the context of
the trade relationship is a bit difficult because we are
running a trade surplus with the United States and as
we all know, of course Donald Trump wants to change that,
(01:34):
so he wants to actually correct that, and so we
have to be very careful in how we approach these talks.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
How bad could it be for us?
Speaker 3 (01:43):
Potentially it could be very bad, because I mean, first
of all, the Trump administration is a bit unpredictable when
it comes to trade. We have seen what they're doing
to other countries. We have seen it in a Canadian example,
We have seen it with Mexico, with the European Union,
and of course China as well. So it could be bad.
It could be that they're targeting our agricultural exports. That's
where we're extremely vulnerable. We haven't got an easy way
(02:05):
to switch these exports around and send them to other
countries instead. So if they're really pulling through and they're
putting the twenty five percent tariffs on our agricultural product produce,
then that would hit us really hard. And there are
other dangers as well, of course, because you might have
seen there was a I think it's still called tweet
these days from Malcolm Turnbill talking about that America now
(02:27):
targets Australia's pharmaceutical import scheme and we've got our own,
of course, we've got farmac. And one of the contentious
points in the trade relationship between our countries could be
that the Americans perceive they're not getting the right price
for their pharmaceutical exports touwizialand which is a significant part
of American exports to mwisium. So there are many ways
in which America could really hurt us if they wanted to.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
As a speaking of Malcolm Turnbull, that's one of the
dangers for US is having one of our own politicians
or ex politicians go off sort of the go off
the script and catch the President's attention in the wrong
way because he hasn't done Australia any favors.
Speaker 3 (03:06):
Well, I think that was the reason why Phil Golf
is no longer the High Commissioner to London. I mean, frankly,
that's exactly the same kind of talk that we now
get from Malcolm turmul except we got it from someone
who was still in a government official position. No, we
have to be extremely careful if we anger the Americans,
if we provoke them, we might trigger even worse response.
So this quietly, quietly approach that we now get from
(03:29):
Todd McLay seems to be exactly the right way to
go about it.
Speaker 2 (03:32):
Are there particular arguments that we mount or is it
just a case of keeping our head down, being as
diplomatic and treading gently and trying to charm the other side.
Speaker 3 (03:42):
Well, the arguments that Todd mclay's making is a sensible one.
He says, we're exporting stuff to America that they could
not potentially supply themselves. So he mentions beef exports. A
lot of New Zealand beef goes into American hamburger production,
basically into fast food, and they wouldn't be able to
replace that, perhaps in a similar kind of way that
they're currently finding they haven't got enough ex and they
(04:04):
even trying to get them from the European Union that
they've just slapped tariffs on. So there are some arguments
Tot maclay can make to the Americans that actually the
trade relationship is complementary. So we're importing stuff from America
that we don't even produce ourselves, like pharmaceuticals, and meanwhile
they're getting high quality produced from US that they would
struggle to source if they put teriffs on us.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
Has the trade war impacted us at all yet or
is it more just it Probably it's just impacted us
because of the stock prices.
Speaker 3 (04:33):
It is certainly impacting us via the stock market, and
everything else will take a little bit longer because until
we have these trade effects materialize, that can take a while.
But what's already happening is, of course, that we see
a massive amount of uncertainty created in international markets for
companies planning their value chains, for companies and planning to
locate their future factories and distribution centers. This is a
(04:57):
massive headache now because you can't rely on stuff anymore.
I mean we've seen it with Canada last week. I
mean this was probably of world first. We haven't in
twenty tariff chart. So starting the morning with twenty five percent,
then going up to fifty percent, and then going down
to twenty five percent after six hours. I've never seen
anything like it. So it's that kind of behavior, that
kind of uncertain to create it that is really damaging
(05:19):
to everyone.
Speaker 2 (05:20):
Does it somewhere? I'm not sure if I heard Todd
McLay talking about potential for flexibility with other markets, but
there are there potentially opportunities that might pop out as
a result of other companies. I'm sorry other countries have
been hard hit by these tariffs. Maybe cooperating more with
the likes of US and each other.
Speaker 3 (05:41):
That will be a positive outcome. But again, all of
this takes time. I mean, we all know how long
it takes to negotiate free trade agreements. They are sometimes
going through ten, twelve, fifteen rounds until they get anywhere
closer to a solution. That can drag over years and
sometimes decades. I mean, just look at how long it
took us to negotiate that free trade agreement with the
European Union, for example. So this is not something you
(06:02):
could switch overnight.
Speaker 2 (06:03):
No, I guess, well, actually on that then it can
take years and years and years, is it? Likely to
speed up or is that a possible if I was
going to be naively optimistic, is a possible side effect
that we might actually find that we can expedite some
of these agreements that we've been struggling to get for
years and years.
Speaker 3 (06:20):
Well, that would be a positive effect. I mean, so far,
I haven't really seen much of that. It's pretty much
the same, of course, in the military space. I mean,
where the whole world order is now in question. You
see now that countries will try to find different defense partners,
different allies, and we see exactly that in parallel happening
in the trade world. But all of this will take time.
I mean, as you say, it would be nice if
(06:41):
it could be sped up a little bit because times
are urgent and Trump doesn't waste any time, and it
might actually surprise us several times over the next few weeks.
So it will be nice to speed that up. But
it's not the way we've operated so far.
Speaker 2 (06:53):
Do you hold out any sort of hope that we
can sort of emerge unscathed by just being very clever
and diplomatically not being big enough to worry about.
Speaker 3 (07:02):
No, because it's quite the opposite, actually, where more countries,
we haven't really got a massive opportunity to turn things
around and really have an influence on what's happening in Washington,
so we will be a price taker. And I have
seen some modeling suggesting that our GDP, if it really
comes to a global trade war started by the US,
might go down by about a percent of GDP and
that's a massive hit to the economy. So unfortunately, that's
(07:25):
just a scenario we have to be prepared for.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
Well, Oliver, I really appreciate your time this afternoon, and
we'll just keep our fingers crossed over. That's Oliver Hart.
Rotchie is the executive director of the New Zealand Initiative.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to news
Talks it'd be weekends from three pm, or follow the
podcast on iHeartRadio.
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