All Episodes

June 21, 2025 • 15 mins

The US has bombed Iran just two days after giving a two-week notice for tensions to deescalate.

With the NATO Summit coming soon, tensions are high.

What can we expect to happen next?

LISTEN ABOVE

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mark as Played
Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks,
i'd be of.

Speaker 2 (00:10):
Course, as you will have heard in the news, the
USA has struck a run, with Donald Trump saying that
the United States has carried our successful attack on three
Iranian nuclear sites, leaving them totally obliterated his words, bombing,
despite Trump initially giving a couple of weeks to de
escalate tensions for negotiation. But of course, surprise, I guess
is key. US lawmakers are already reacting generally down party lines,

(00:34):
with some saying he made the right call and the
other saying it was not constitutional, risky move that only
escalates the US involvement in another war. And of course
we know that Chris Luxon in the way, is on
the way to Europe with the NATO summit on Tuesday,
and international geopolitical anist Miller Miller is with US Jeffrey
Good afternoon.

Speaker 3 (00:53):
Good as an end him surprised. I think what was
surprising was only the timing. I think it's become clear
that the US was getting closer to conducting the strike
on Iran. They were getting all their assets positioned in
the region, but they've also engaged in a bit of
a deception campaign over the last a week or so,

(01:13):
making it hard to guess exactly what we're going to
come and when. And I think that two week deadline
that you mentioned was all part of the strategy. It
was all the great ruse, a great deception to try
and keep run guessing about what was going to come.
But it has come, and Donald Trump has put his
weight behind Israel and he's taken the United States into
war with the Ruan. It's quite a moment when.

Speaker 2 (01:35):
We have confirmation he used the word obliterated, but it's
probably too early to actually confirm what damage was done.
How and when will we know if the nuclear capabilities
have been degraded.

Speaker 3 (01:48):
Well, I imagine the US military will have all kinds
of military satellite capabilities that civilians don't have access to,
and they'll be looking at those and using those to
sort of work out just how much of their facilities
have been destroyed. The photo facility is very much deep underground,
and I've seen some analysis which suggests that even US

(02:08):
bunker busting bombs would have would have a hard job
of really destroying those facilities completely. They've been built with
bunker buster bombs in mind, and The Iranians are not
are not stupid. They are aware that these would be
very high value targets for the United States of Israel.
So they've constructed these facilities accordingly. But it's probably the

(02:32):
case that if they haven't been destroyed, they've certainly been
degraded heavily, and they will have set back the Iranians
attempt to build a nuclear weapon, if that is what
they're doing, by several years. That's certainly what Israeli officials
are saying at the moment.

Speaker 2 (02:47):
What's your take. Was it the right decision to do what.

Speaker 3 (02:51):
They've done, No, it's madness. I mean, this would this
could bring us on the brink of World War III.
And we wait to see what Iran's response will be.
But they are going to see US, any US as
in the region as a target. So the United States
has bases all throughout the Gulf, the likes of Bahrain, Kata,

(03:12):
the emiratet Saudi Arabia, They're just across the Strait of
Homers from a run. This is a very very, very
dangerous region really for escalation, and Iran will respond, they
will retaliate. They're not going to take this lying down.
I think that's Donald What Donald Trump wants them to
do is to give up completely, surrender, and then there

(03:34):
will be no more bombing. They could give up on
the nuclear program. But I just think, look, if you're
attacked by the United States, you're going to respond. This
was a preemptive, unprovoked attack from a run's perspective, and
they are not going to take this lying down. So
it's a huge escalation here.

Speaker 2 (03:50):
What does it mean for the influence that Netanyahu has
with Donald Trump?

Speaker 3 (03:55):
I think, what again, I come back to the idea
that's been some deception, and I think there's been some
deception going on all year because if you recall, Donald
Trump went to the golf sets and he didn't visit Israel,
and there was some talk that Donald Trump is not
that close with Benhim and Nettanya who that he's unhappy
with Menhim and Nettan Yahoo. That's why Israel's not getting

(04:16):
a visit. I think this might have been all but
in one big deception, and perhaps these plans have been
worked out over the past few months that the United
States would go in and support Israel and bomb Iran.
And we've got these competing narratives and it's hard to
make out. Sometimes we have this sort of more isolationist

(04:36):
wing of the Republican Party, and Jadie Vance, the Vice
President's normally seemed to be closer to that wing, the
one who ones who don't want forever wars and new wars.
And then you have the Hawks, the likes of Mico
Rubio pe Pete Hexcess is certainly the case whatever's transpired,
that the Hawks have certainly got Trump's attention and that
they've prevailed here.

Speaker 2 (04:56):
Can't Trump spoken recently with Netanyahu on the phone, And
I guess the reason I mentioned that in the context
of a couple of months ago, Tolsey Gabba I was saying,
our intelligence is that they're not building a bomb, and
all of a sudden, Trump's overruling his own Director of
Natural Intelligence and seems to be going along with the
Israeli narrative.

Speaker 3 (05:18):
Indeed, I mean, there are pictures that have come out
of the situation room where this decision was made in
the past few hours where Donald Trump ordered the bombing
to begin, and there's no sign of Tossic Gabbett, the
DNI as they called her. So it seems that she's
been sidelined and she walked back some of her comments
yesterday and said she'd been quoted out of context, et cetera.

(05:41):
So she's clearly been leant on to do that. She's
kept her job. She hasn't resigned, So she's clearly not
that principal enough to leave her job over this. But
she's certainly not, I think, on she's not in the
front row of decision makers. That's Donald trump peak head
set that Jade Vance. They seemed to be leading the strikes.

Speaker 2 (06:03):
Well you, I mean this is there's a little bit
of guessing we have to indulge in here, isn't it?
But are you you would you be confident that this
decision was based on some sort of solid intelligence or
more on the whim of Trump with Nityahu in his ear.

Speaker 3 (06:18):
I think Donald Trump is very persuadable and often said
with Donald Trump that he's influenced by the last person
he talked to. And I think he's just gone on
board that we've got to destroy the nuclear facilities. And
over the past a couple of weeks he's seen the
Israeli campaign and Benjamin there, who's probably been on the
phone with him repeatedly saying we've got to finish the job,

(06:38):
mister president. This is a golden opportunity. We won't get
this chance again to destroy around this nuclear program. Let's
let's go in there for the for the kill. And
that's that's what's happened ultimately, And the big question is
whether it does stop here or not. Donald Trump came
out saying peace or tragedy. You either capitulate now entirely

(07:00):
or you'll get more where that came from. And that's
the big question. Whether whether what Iran will do now
they've just been attacked, will they respond against the United States?
I mean, they'd be perfectly entitled to do so, but
it may lead to the end of the regime because
if the United States then comes and tries to wipe
out the regime entirely. But then I think you've got

(07:22):
to also think, well, what are other countries going to do?
What is Russia going to do around run has been
supplying all kinds of weaponry to Russia for the war
in Ukraine. Does Russia come in, what does China do?
What are other regional powers do in this conflict? And
that's why it's so scary, and to come back to
that point and made it the outset that we could
be on the brank of a wider regional war, we
could be on the brink off of World War IIE.

(07:44):
I don't think some of these comparisons are that ill placed.
And Whinston Peters was just speaking in the last ten
to fifteen minutes or so, and he said it's the
biggest crisis he's ever had to deal with as a
foreign minist to what we're facing now. You compared it
with the Cuban missile crisis of nineteen sixty two.

Speaker 2 (08:02):
So how closely will Trump be watching an internal reaction
from the MAGA anti war people and just the way
it plays out with his own supporters.

Speaker 3 (08:13):
Look, I think he will just be listening to the
people who agree with him right now. I think the
anti war faction has gone now in a way. From
the Trump White House, it seemed very strong. But you
saw Donald Trump's response to Tucker Carlson last week, who
conducted that interview with Ted Cruz, the Republican Senator is
very much a hawk and very much in favor of

(08:34):
attacking Iran, and Ted Cruz couldn't even say roughly how
many people lived in Iran. He didn't seem to know
anything about the country. But Donald Trump was very critical
of Tucker Carlson, and I think the Hawks have got
Donald Trump's ear at the moment. So I think that's
those are the people that Donald Trump will be listening to.
I don't think he's going to care much about the
Tulsa Gabbard, Tucker Carlson, the these kinds of things. I

(08:58):
don't think he's going to care about this wing of
the party anymore.

Speaker 2 (09:01):
He also said in his stand up and his brief
stand up were which was a surprising because he can
talk for quite a while. He said, there are many
targets left. Is that the sort of rhetoric which is
supposed to signal to Iran? You bet not better be
careful about your response because we could we could do more.

Speaker 3 (09:18):
Indeed, indeed, so that's a threat. Well, you just have
to completely capitulate, a bit like Japan at the end
of World War II when the nuclear bombs were dropped
on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. You've got to give up, completely
surrender or you'll be obliterated and then it will be
re raging change. And you know, this is a this
is madness. As I have to come back to that

(09:40):
what we're dealing with. It's a powder keg there that
Donald Trump is now unleashed in the Middle East. I mean,
what was happening was already bad enough with Israel's direct
war with Iran. I mean, we just haven't seen this,
and this takes us back to at least to the
Iraq War when it comes to the United States with Israel.
You know, in the forty five years also the existence

(10:01):
of the Islamic Republic of Iran. We hadn't had a
direct confrontation between Israel and Iran until last year when
we had two very limited rounds of strikes in April
and October. And now we've got an all out war
between Israel, the United States, and Iran. It is unprecedented.

Speaker 2 (10:18):
So analysts and other anists have warned of a dangerous escalation.
Of course, where might one of the most likely sort
of initial responses from Iraq the oil transit roots military bases.
They've also got the Huthis and other regional proxies. What's
your take on it.

Speaker 3 (10:38):
Well, you have the straight up hooor Mouse, which is
a very narrow waterway that separates the Persian or Arabian
Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the wider Indian Ocean,
and it's only thirty three kilometers at its narrowest point,
and twenty to thirty percent of the world's entire supplies
of oil flow through that narrow waterway, mainly from the
likes of Saudi Arabia Kutta. The United Arab Emirates Uee.

(11:01):
Iran called blockade that straight conceivably. It could also attack
ships in that strait conceivably, which would be the same
as blockading it. The United States has bases dottled around
the gulf. There's all manner of US aircraft. Many of
them have been shifted out of the bases temporarily, but
they are still stationed within the wider region. They're a

(11:24):
lot closer than Israelis, so it's easier for Iran to
strike back with short range missiles, and they've got large
stockpiles of these short range missiles. So those are some
of the consequences that could happen that could unfold.

Speaker 2 (11:37):
Is Trump some predict lucky? Last question? I guess, is
Trump some predictability something that might actually give the Ozeranians
pause when it comes to how they respond, because they
would have no idea as to the proportionality of how
far is prepared to go.

Speaker 3 (11:52):
Look, I think Iran may well roll the dice on
World War three here and gamble because they think they've
been humiliated already. And I just think the regime they're
just not going to put up with this and being
attacked and like this by the United States. I just
think it would be a humiliation with their own people
if they didn't respond. And I just think going back

(12:15):
to New Zealand's brom and all of this with Christopher Luxeon,
he is in Europe, is going to be at the
NATO summit, and this is New Zealand's chance to step
up here, to speak up and to condemn these strikes
by the United States, to advocate further for dialogue into
plug and see when Saint Peter's has already been using
those words, when St. Peter's has worn of catastrophic consequences,

(12:37):
Christopher Luxeen is warned of a catastrophic escalation. It's said
that the Middle East doesn't need more military escalation. I
think New Zealand needs to put words into action here.
New Zealand needs to step up and speak up for peace,
and it needs to offer its good officers. I think
as part of that those efforts, New Zealand can only
play a small role. But New Zealand does have good
relations with many of the golf states. Christoph Luxen was

(13:00):
there in the UAE earlier in the year. New Zealand's
good relations with other players as well, China, for example.
So I think he Zeven needs to be stepping up here.
Christopher Luxean Wins and Peter's Judis Colins, they need to
be working the phones, and I think they need to
sacrifice their agenda to bring New Zealand into orcst Pillar
two and get closer with the United States and so forth.

(13:22):
I think that was yesterday. I think the situation with
dealing with today is a very scary one. It's quite
a frightening escalation and it could have real impacts on
New Zealand, even though where there's very zar our away
from the region obviously, but just think of the price
of oil, if you think of each other or letter petrol,
it could be coming your way very soon.

Speaker 2 (13:41):
Hey Jeffrey, I really appreciate your time in this afternoon.
I hope you're sort of wrong.

Speaker 3 (13:48):
I hope I am too. In all honesty, I really
hope I'm wrong too, but that's why we need to
speak up at this time to and then this is
the time for New Zealand to step up, and I
think Kristopher Luxon is capable of doing that and he's
in the right place. This week you'll be at the
NATO summit in the Hague, so all the people are
going to be there, from Donald Trump right through to
the German chance of the UK Prime Minister. Everyone's going

(14:08):
to be there, so it's really worth Christoph Luxem speaking
up now he's got a chance.

Speaker 2 (14:13):
Yeah, I've actually do have one other question because we
have an incredible experienced Foreign Minister and the former Winston
Peters come with the come at the man. I guess
who is the key player in terms of the diplomacy,
whether it be behind the scenes, from front of the scenes.
Is it Luxon or Peter's or both.

Speaker 3 (14:29):
Look, they work as a team and the Foreign Minister
is always there, but the Prime Minister is ultimately the
most senior figure, the most senior player, and Winston Peters
was saying in this press conference just in ane half
hour then he needed to talk to the Prime Minister.
So they'll be working on a coordinated response, and that's
right and proper. It should be a coordinated response for

(14:50):
New Zealand. It should be a response to advocate for
peace and to condemn this wider escalation and to condemn
the strike by the United States, and that would be
there would be a big step to make, but I
think it would be very much in keeping with New
Zealand's independent foreign policy. And sometimes you need to speak
strongly to your friends in the United States as a friend,
but it made the wrong decision here.

Speaker 2 (15:10):
Okay, Jeffrey, I really appreciate your time this afternoon and
very much. Thanks so much, and all the best for
the afternoon. Fingers crossed ay.

Speaker 1 (15:19):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to news
Talks It'd be weekends from three pm, or follow the
podcast on iHeartRadio.
Advertise With Us

Popular Podcasts

On Purpose with Jay Shetty

On Purpose with Jay Shetty

I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!

The Breakfast Club

The Breakfast Club

The World's Most Dangerous Morning Show, The Breakfast Club, With DJ Envy And Charlamagne Tha God!

The Joe Rogan Experience

The Joe Rogan Experience

The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.

Music, radio and podcasts, all free. Listen online or download the iHeart App.

Connect

© 2025 iHeartMedia, Inc.