Why Is Our Economy Doing This? Lanhee Chen Talks to A&G

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
It's always great to have Alan he Chan on the show. Alan,

(00:02):
he's a candidate for the State Controller of California, is
a David Diane Staffy Fellow in American Public Policy Studies
at the Uber Institution, Director of Domestic Policy Studies at
Stanford University. Uh Lan he great to talk. How are you.
I'm doing well. Thanks, guys, great to do with you.
So you're a numbers guy and you're running for a
numbers oriented position, and we want to talk about that

(00:24):
in a couple of minutes. But you know, shortly before
he passed away, Rush Limbaugh said, there is no longer
a constituency for fiscal conservatism. Nobody wants to hear about it.
And certainly if you look at the last couple of
them in administrations and Congress on both sides of the aisle,
it looks like he's right. And I just wonder. I know,
you're not a fortune teller, you're you're a domestic policy expert.

(00:46):
But with with the hyper inflation, the rampant inflation, the
brutal prices, working people struggling just to put food on
the table, at this point, is it possible we'll have
some sort of national reawakening to the idea of living
within our means. I think it's entirely possible, especially when
you understand that part of the reason, I mean a

(01:07):
big part of the reason why I think we're experiencing
this massive inflation in the country now is because of
policy decisions we've made, and decisions that are directly related
to incredible amounts of fiscal stimulus and spending. Obviously, the
Federal Reserve has had something to do with that as well,
and with their easy money policies for a very very
long period of time. But if you put that assign
for a minute, I do think people look at the

(01:29):
environment and they recognize that we can't continue to pursue
this pathway we're on. The pathway that we're on has
led to record inflation. And it's not just things that
you know, people don't buy. It's it's basic commodity like
gas and milk, household necessities, even travel. I mean, in fact,
the single biggest component of h of indicators looking at

(01:53):
the rate of inflation, the single biggest increase has been
in airline travel in terms of how much we pay
for airline tickets. I think a horty percent increase year
over year. So this is stuff where people will look
and they'll say, Okay, what's happening. Why is our economy
doing this? And the answer is quite simple. It's because
nobody has been there to sound the alarm about the

(02:13):
way in the nature of our spending. If inflation continues
for a while though, and I think it will, and
the Republicans take over, will the presidents still get blamed
or will the Republicans start to take the heat for it,
because whoever's in charge tends to get blamed for a
bad economy. Yeah. And and the problem, of course is
that even if the Republicans win, you know, one or

(02:35):
two chambers of Congress, nothing's going to happen because whatever
they would want to do, the president will will be
against and vice versa. And and you know, we're kind
of stuck in this difficult cycle for the next couple
of years. Who takes the political blame? I mean, I
think part of that is how the politics get played
out by both sides. But I think that the reality
is both sides need to wake up to the fact.

(02:55):
And by the way, Republicans are just as guilty over
the last couple of years of not being physcally responsible
of not understanding what happens when you pump all this
money into the economy, of being in favor of policies
that unfortunately have driven up our debt and have driven up, uh,
the amount of spending. But if you put that aside
for a moment, I do think that both sides have

(03:15):
the potential to get blamed if this gets worse, because
now both of their hands are dirty. Well, just they
have to understand. Yeah, well just one of the reasons
I wanted to bring that up is um I heard
some other pundits discussing this, So this is not my
original idea, but you would think with inflation at a
forty year high, crime like we haven't seen for decades,
Republicans would be running away from this thing. Is with

(03:38):
this thing with this election all over the country is
opposed to just a slight advantage. So what's going on there? Well,
it's complicated. I mean, I think in different places the
the economy is kind of playing in different ways. I
do agree with the notion that the economy is going
to be the top issue in this election. I think
you see it here in California, you eat in other states.

(04:01):
I think in other states. There are issues, you know,
whether it's crime or some of the social issues that
do rise into that top three, top four. But fundamentally,
I think the polling doesn't reflect where people are on
the economy and how dominant it is going to be.
I think people are going to be surprised by how
predominant it is, and as a result, I do think

(04:22):
Republicans and many of these House races are going to
do well. I think in many of the Senate races
are going to do well. There's a few races where
where there's some candidate issues, but I do think overall
the economy is going to be a much more significant
issue than people are giving a credit for. Because I'll
tell you when I'm out there on the campaign trail,
that is all I ever hear about from people is

(04:43):
why does stuff cost so much? Why are we headed
for recession? How did we get here? And how do
we fix it? Hey? Speaking of polling, how do I
phrase this question? How well are polsters? How how good
a job repolsters doing these days? In actually reflecting the
support for Republican candidates and ideas. There's a widespread perception

(05:07):
among folks who are on the right side of politics,
and I just mean, you know, average every day folks
that um that that conservatives are much more hostile to
polling in general and so don't cooperate. Is there any
truth to that? Yeah, I do think there's some truth
to that. I do think that there is. There are
a couple of things going on. First of all, I
think that polsters are getting better at actually finding people.

(05:30):
So for a period of time, as people were shifting
from landlines the cell phones and their Internet use was increasing,
polsters had to accommodate the shift in how to reach people.
But also they had to figure out how do we
conduct internet polling or online polling in a scientifically valid way.
And I think that shift, you know, has happened in

(05:50):
the last couple of years. I think it is essentially
complete now. So I think they've gotten better at that.
The problem that you're talking about sort of response bias,
you know, who answers the questions, who answers them accurately?
That is a very very real problem. And I think
if you talk to posters, they'll tell you that they
have a they have a challenge in terms of measuring
where right leaning Republican self identified Republican voters are, because

(06:13):
that is, it can be hard to get either a
real answer or any answer because there is this distrust
of the polling industry, particularly amongst some conservatives. So it's
a it's a problem. I think it's getting better. I
think that it will be addressed more in their scientific
ways to correct for some of this, and so hopefully
we'll have more accurate polling data. But you know, the

(06:34):
toughest question to answer is, like, you know, what do
the polls say? Because the reality is pulls a kind
of all over the place A and B. It's not
clear they're a an accurate representation of where the electorate is,
particularly to your point on the right of center. Start
all right, I don't know if you've been listening to
our reading what your friend Sarah Iger has been writing
in the Dispatch about issue polling. She says, it's almost

(06:54):
completely a waste of time. Do you agree here? Disagree?
I mean, that's just what's so much about the way
you pray is the question and who you sample exactly exactly.
So so issue pulling is it's unique sort of has
unique difficulties because it is based on how you ask
the question, and it's also based on whatever your your
respondents understanding of the issue, and and and then it

(07:17):
becomes deeply kind of like a personal thing. Right, So
if you asked them a question about tax cuts, they
may or may have had some experience with the tax
code or some experience with a small business or whatever
that that affects their view of the policy, so that
you're not actually getting a true representation of the feeling
about the policy. You're getting you know, they're feeling about
the economy, or there's something is mixed into how they

(07:39):
feel about that policy. So it is hard. It's always
been hard to pull issues, by the way, I mean,
that's not a new concept. I do think that it
makes it harder for policy makers to really understand where
the elector it is and to have public policy that's
responsive to what the electorate wants. But but it's not
a new problem, and it's one that certainly is out there.
So I have a question about the office you're running for,

(08:02):
and I will reveal to the listening audience my secret
motive in asking after you answer. But you're you're running
for California State Controller. What the heck does the state
controller do? The state controller is the fiscal watchdog, the
person who's supposed to give accountability for every single dollar
that they spend. So if you think about California as

(08:22):
a three hundred billion dollar a year enterprise, that's how
much we spend every year. Uh. This is the person
that's supposed to give us accountability and transparency for how
that money is spent. But more importantly, is supposed to
tell us how the spending is working. Is it achieving results?
Is it not? And so it is a particularly important
position at a time when California is spending more than

(08:44):
ever and some of our challenges here, whether it's homelessness
or public safety or the state of our public schools,
some of those challenges I think are bigger than they've
been at any point in my life. The idea of
the government of California taking time to make sure it's
spending money wisely and efficiently. I'll donate my next two
paychecks and a kidney if that will help you. I mean,

(09:05):
because it's so important. So here's here's my secret motive
in bringing this up. Off year elections and so called
down ballot races are important, and I just want to
convey to the listeners the forces that would turn wherever
you live into another California, or make California even worse,

(09:27):
they turn out their people to elect controllers or attorney city,
attorney's county attorney's, attorneys general, that sort of thing. School boards.
We've all learned how important that is. Show up and vote,
especially in the off year elections. I agree, I agree

(09:47):
totally with you. That's hugely important. And and you you
mentioned a lot of these these races. I mean, the
school board races are critical, but also the races for
these down ballot offices. We have eight statewide constitutional officers
in California, and all of them play an important role.
And people need to understand and study the ballot and
and make informed decisions. Should you be controlling the fact
that the Los Angeles Dodgers with a two million dollar

(10:10):
payroll are attempting to buy a World Series championship. Listen, listen,
it's not There's no such thing as buying a World
Series Championship. They're gonna go out there, They're gonna go
out there and earn it. They're gonna go out there
and earn it. As every confidence they're gonna win this series.
I always always like it when people say this sort
of thing because I've been a you know, following this
angle in sports for a long time. The Mets, who

(10:32):
didn't make the playoffs have the number one payroll. The Padres,
who are the young up starts trying to take on
the Dodgers, have the fourth highest payroll in all of baseball.
So there you go. I was gonna say, what are
your communist? It's a for profit business. Hey, we're up
against a break lin he. But it's always great to
talk to you, long he Chan, candidate for California State
Controller with the Hoover Institution Stanford University. Always a pleasure, sir,

(10:55):
stay in touch. Great to be thank you are getting