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February 24, 2023 13 mins

The conventional wisdom when the first Russian bombs being dropped on Kiev was that Ukraine would fall in a matter of days. But one year later, brave Ukrainians continue to battle for their homeland. But how--and when--will the conflict end?  Military analyst Jeff McCausland joins The Armstrong & Getty Show to reflect on the past year and to talk about the various paths that could lead to an end of the war.

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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Show. We've heard Vladimir Putin speak pretty much every day.
There was very little except we are going to continue.
We will win. Russia will win in this war. It's
a just fight for Russia. Very little on how exactly
he plans to make a lot of headway, except for
sending more people there to the front line, which right now,

(00:24):
at least for the time being, doesn't seem to be
having the desired effect for the Russians. Yeah, I'd say not.
We're at the one year mark. It was a year
ago today that the bombs started falling on Kiev, and
at that time we were being told by our own
government that they expected Kiev could could fall in ninety
six hours. As far as that recent offensive from the Russians,

(00:48):
I've heard several people. I saw h R. McMaster A
number of people say it's on. It started. I saw
a Ukrainian officer of some rank say the other day, yeah,
it started, but you can barely tell. So if this
actually is the big Russian offensive, it ain't leaving much
of a mark. Well, perhaps it is, we'll see Doctor
Jeff McCaslin joins us Jeff as a CBS News a

(01:11):
military consultant, founder and CEO of Diamond six Leadership and
Strategy LLLC, and a Senior Fellow at the Stockdale Center
for Ethical Leadership at the Naval Academy. Jeff, how are you, sir?
Very well, it's great to be with you guys. You bet,
thank you so a year ago today, what did you
think was going to happen? And how do you feel
about you know that looking back over the last year, Well,

(01:33):
I feel a good kind of company is a so
called military analysts, because every analysts that I knew expected
just what you suggested a few moments ago that Kiev
would follow within a few hours. We know Russian officers,
by the way, we're told to pack their dress uniforms
because they were going to need him for the big
victory parade and celebration that was going to happen in
Kiev in just a couple of hours. And I believe
that was an assumption that Vladimir Prutin made that the

(01:55):
Ukrainians wouldn't fight, this would be over very quickly. Obviously
that has not happened, and Kranians have been inspired. I
remember as well the words of Ladi of Vladimir's Lensky
early on on this conflict when we asked him to
evacuate and we will to set up a government in
exile outside of Ukraine, and this young former comedian said,
I don't need a ride, I need more ammunition. And

(02:17):
that seemed to me to be almost a turning point
and attitude which has colored the Ukrainian response and the course. Secondarily,
I think if you look back on this, we should
reflect on the fact that Putin assumed that the Western
Alliance would be disunited. He had seen what had happened
with Afghanistan, he had seen the United States polarized and
focused on the Pacific, and he thought there would not
be a concerted response by the West. Well, that has

(02:38):
proven untrue as well. In the last few days we
saw the President United States, for the first time, perhaps
in our history, go into a combat zone without US
air cover and also give a speech in Poland in
which he complimented isn't allies for their unity and said
we were there to support Ukraine as long as it takes.
So in your opinion, where does the conflict stand now

(03:00):
and where is it likely to go in the next
say six months. Well, as you suggest, again, it seems
to be at the moment somewhat frozen. The Russian offensive
I think is ongoing. I talk to people in Kiev
just the other day. We see large scale Russian ground
infantry attacks, particularly in the area around Bockmoot and Buladhar
and Kremina down in the Donbass region as they try

(03:20):
to envelop that particular area. But it is just that
largely pretty poorly coordinated, large scale entry attacks, not supported
by armor into an enormous degree, nor by real heavily
coordinated artillery fire, though there's a lot of artillery fire,
and this has been endemic in the Russians, their inability

(03:40):
to coordinate what we would call combined arms effectively, and
the fact that they've lost a significant amount of military
hardware and a lot of manpower and most a lot
of these young recruits that are now advancing might have
only had two or three weeks of training, and the
Ukrainians so far have been able to hold out. How
this will go next, Well, the Ukrainians have got their
primary professional forces held out of the fight right now,

(04:03):
and that's really been territorial forces for Ukraine in the
defense of buck Mut, So I know they're preparing for
a counter offensive. Would say expect will occur later in
the spring, perhaps after a lot of this promised military
hardware like tanks, Leopard three's m ones, Bradley's more artillery
and the like have arrived and it was see towards spring,
maybe that effort by them for a counteroffensive, which I

(04:24):
think we'll try to cut the land bridge connecting Russia
with Crimea, And if that occurs and it's successful, then
we might see some conditions whereby some kind of a
negotiation might in fact occur. So there's a piece in
the Washington Post today by a guy we like, Josh Rogan,
who's saying that the Biden philosophy is getting it all wrong.
The whole time is not on Russia's side. We will

(04:48):
stick with it as long as it takes No no,
no, no no, no way, we got it. We gotta help
them end it now because Ukraine is getting just decimated
as a country and Russia can keep it up until
they finally have to capitulate. So we shouldn't be looking
at it as a drawn out wear down Russia thing.
Russia wants to wear down Ukraine. How do you feel
about that? No, I think there's a lot of truth

(05:09):
in that. I mean, we've said many people has said
the Biden administration has been managing this war and not
trying to win the war. And I think the Ukrainians
that I speak with as well realize that time is
not on their side, not only in terms of military
manpower and material but but Western support. Let's be honest,
American support for this war has softened. I don't think
it's dwindle. The pole as I read, suggests the majority

(05:31):
of the American population strongly supporting the war in Ukraine.
But we do hear those voices, many even up on
Capitol Hill, some people even considering, I think, running for
president that says the United States should not be involved
in this particular conflict, and the Ukrainians take cognisis of that.
So time is not on Ukraine side. I think that's
one of the things mister Putin thinks he has. His

(05:53):
willpower is stronger and more enduring than ours is. Well,
we're going to ask a couple of people this question today,
so I want to hear your answer to how important
is this, how big a deal is it to the
United States? What's our national interest in Ukraine not being defeated? This,
I think is a major inflection point in the history
of our country's right. Frankly at this particular time. Were

(06:16):
mister Putin to be successful, what he will have done
is undermine the international norms that were established on the
Second World War and move us into an international system
which is guided by the law of the jungle. That
if you want to take at territory and you have
the military means to do that, then you should. You
should do that, no matter how many people die along
the way, and would undermine, to my mind, the values

(06:38):
that the United States has stood for ever since its creation. Freedom, justice,
the right of individuals to create their own democracy, the
rights of sovereignty. All those things would be undermine. And thirdly,
it would encourage every dictator around the world that can
be successful in doing that. We have aspirations for territory
and we should take those on. Let's be honest, there's

(06:59):
no doubt mister ji jing Ping is watching this war
very carefully. How does the West react? How does the
United States react? As he continues to describe Taiwan as
part of China and might someday decide to use military
forces to in fact secure that democratically elected government on
that island. Jeff mccauslan is on line CBS News military consultant, Jeff,

(07:21):
I don't know if it's a lack of imagination on
my part or what, but I'm having a difficulty imagining
how this conflict ends and what that looks like, because
out and out capitulation by one side or the other
is not going to happen. No. I still think that
there's about four ways this could happen. One could be
it could go on for interminable period time. This could

(07:42):
be World War one, frankly, and we need to be
honest with that. Number Two, it could become sort of
a frozen conflict, whereby there is some kind of a negotiation,
but there's ongoing fighting, not unlike we had when this began,
because don't forget, if you're a Ukrainian this began in
twenty fourteen with the occupation of Crimea and a portion
of the hyndskin. Donetskn a frozen conflict that ensued one

(08:04):
side of the other could score a stunning victory. You
might see the Ukrainians collapse. Frankly, I think there's a
possible you might see the Russian military collapse, presenting a
fair company and then the last is some kind of
a change in leadership in Moscow, and that could go
either way. It could make things better in terms of
possibilities and negotiations, or it could make things actually worse.

(08:25):
But those are the only four ways that I see
this war coming to any kind of a conclusion. Wow,
Doctor Jeff McCaslin, CBS News Military consultant, it's always enlightening, Jeff,
thanks so much for the time. Thanks guys, if you
listen to this show, you know I tend to agree
with his point of view on the importance of this. Also,
I think I agree with Josh Rogan's Washington Post piece

(08:46):
about this angle that Biden's going with of we're in
it for the long haul. No, no, long haul is
the way Russia wins, not the way Ukraine wins. I
think that's a really powerful point. That's good point. Yeah,
we're going to be talking to Josh in our four
of the show. If you don't get our four, you
got to go do something. Grab the podcast later Armstrong

(09:08):
and getting on demand. He's got some really good points
to make. M're going to talk to Mike Lyons later,
who I have a feeling, unless he's changed his mind,
is going to have a different opinion than you just heard.
So if you don't like that point of view, you
might like Mike Lein's point of view where he's he
has been saying, this is a regional conflict that is
not really our thing. Yeah, if you are unfamiliar with
the show, perhaps you're new to it, here's something crazy

(09:30):
we do. We listen to different opinions and kind of
let you decide on a lot of issues. So I
wonder what it's going to look like between now and
when the tanks that the West are providing to Ukraine
actually hit the scene in earnest. I understand they're a
handful of the German tanks that are that are in

(09:51):
country and they're training on him that sort of thing.
But what can Russia accomplish while those are coming online?
Because the Ussians have radio stations too, They know that
the Ukrainians would love nothing better than to take some
Abrams tanks and the other heavy armaments and bust through
their lines and sever the connection to cremea like Jeff

(10:12):
was talking about in the south of the country, and
they want to make sure that doesn't happen. So can
the Ukrainians hold out long enough if this is the
big Russian offensive and you can't even tell what's happening,
that's not what people were worried about a couple of
weeks ago. And is it because they're you know, completely untrained, unsupported, unfed,

(10:34):
unarmed prisoners or people drug off the street that are
fighting in the Russian military. Yeah, I don't have any idea.
It's all been so crazy and not impressive. It could be.
On the other hand, I'm just popped into my head.
I'm reminded of way back during the Gulf War, where

(10:55):
the news media spent like forty eight hours on the
air saying, is this shock and all? Is this this
could be the getting of shock and awe? Is this
shock and awe? You know, every time light bulb would
would go out right, and they told us you'll know
it when you see it, and it was pretty clear
when it started. Yeah, And so you're you're suggesting that
maybe this isn't the beginning, and when Russia starts, you'll know, Oh,
this is the beginning. Yeah. I don't know that, but

(11:17):
it's entirely possible. So what's the name of that paramilitary group,
voby A's off Battalion. Oh, oh, the Wagner Group. Yeah,
so that's like fifty five thousand people strong. They have
forty some thousand in Ukraine right now, and they're run
by Putin's chef because he was literally Putin chef, but

(11:37):
put together this group of many prisoners. Now, he's the
video that we played audio from. He was going around
to the prison saying, hey, you come fight, you can
fight the evil Nazis in Ukraine. In six months you'll
you'll get out and you don't have to go back
to prison. Now. If you get there and decide not
to fight, you will be shot and there. I watched
a long piece on this last night. It was really

(11:59):
interesting and showing Wagner group putting out videos of shooting
people who tried to desert or would not fight, including
one guy they bludgeon to death with a sledgehammer. So
that's how they keep you in line in the Wagner group, right,
But yeah, I don't know, I don't know. There's quite
a difference in motivation between people who are fighting because
of the fear of who's behind them and people who

(12:21):
are fighting saying, sawang Ukrainian soldier there the day, so
I'll fight him with my fist till I die if
I have to. That's a completely different thing. Yeah, yes
it is. God, it's horrible, Oh it is. It's just
it's horrible for so many people on so many levels.
They think four hundred and fifty thousand Russians have fled

(12:43):
the country, and like you said earlier, a lot of
those are the educated, got money, got talent, got skills
that have left. Yeah. Yeah, like so many other things,
I suspect the brain drain of Russian might be a
little bit exaggerated by people who are rooting for Ukraine.
But who knows. Hard to know, they don't have a

(13:05):
free press. There is the thing. Anyway, we'll talk to
some other smart people about this. We got other things
to discuss for you. Got some interesting texts about the
big trial. We were talking about the murder trial. Maybe
we'll get to those other things. Our text line is
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