October 13, 2023 • 9 mins
The Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer joins Armstrong & Getty to to talk about the situation unfolding between Hamas and Israel.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
According to a diplomatic source, Hamas is preventing civilians inside
Gaza from leaving their homes when they are warned about
an impending strike by the Israelis. I confirmed this with
someone on the ground in Gaza City and then reached
out to Hamas for comment, a senior Hamas official telling
Fox News it's technically impossible. The initial information is good information,
(00:22):
and it is significant as we are getting reports today
about the Israelis telling all of the northern Gazan population
to leave because it appears a ground invasion is eminine well.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
Ian Bremer, who were about to talk to tweeted out
that more than four hundred thousand have already fled their
homes in North Gaza headed south, as recommended by the Israelis.
Speaker 3 (00:46):
And they headline The New York Times panic gripts Gaza
as Israel tells one point one million to leave the
north and Hamas is urging defiance of it. So I'd
say chaos is a fairly well applied term. Ian Bremer,
president of the Eurasia Group, author of the Power of Crisis,
to respect the commentator on a number of out let's Ian,
how are you always good to.
Speaker 4 (01:05):
Talk gentlemen, I've missed you, and likewise.
Speaker 3 (01:09):
It's good to talk. The immediate situation is chaotic enough.
I know you specialize in trying to imagine what the
next couple of steps are. How uncertain is the situation
right now?
Speaker 4 (01:22):
Well, it's very certain in the sense that the Israelis
are going to escalate their airstrikes into Gaza and eventually
a ground occupation into Gaza. That is very clear. And
while the evacuation is going apace already four hundred thousand
Palestinians of about two point three million Kasa that have
(01:46):
left their homes and are trying to get out of
Dodge for safety, far more are still going to be there.
They will be unwilling or incapable of leaving, and that
means that the civilian consequences for this war are going
to get much much worse. This is of course, very
dangerous for the Israelis in terms of the impact it
(02:10):
has on their relations around the world, and they have
to be careful here.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
Well, that's what we're just talking about. How wobbly do
you think the United States government, France and all these
other countries that have said we are with Israel one
hundred percent, howe hundred percent are they?
Speaker 4 (02:27):
I mean, you remember when Biden said a few months
ago that we're with Ukraine for as long as it takes,
which you know a lot of it takes. Is not
something you usually hear from an eighty year old. I mean,
I worry. I worry, of course, that the willingness of
the United States, in any circumstance to be significantly a
(02:48):
long term committed to a serious fight has a cell
by date. This is very far from the United States.
It's very far from the heart of the average American
citizen that has been through four years of America First
and twenty years of an Afghanistan war, in a decade
of an Iraq war. I mean, you have to use
(03:08):
that as context. But certainly Israel is an issue that
has very strong bipartisan support from Democrats and Republicans in
the US. Fighting against Islamic terror is something that draws
a lot of interest for Americans. And yes, you can
(03:28):
find some students at Harvard that will say that the
Israelis are responsible. That is by no means representative of
the vast majority of the country.
Speaker 3 (03:38):
Hey, let's look at this for a minute from the
perspective of Hamas, You don't plan an attack like this
for two years and spend the lives of a bunch
of fighters just to strike a blow then go hide again.
They have a plan, a strategy. What do you suppose
it is.
Speaker 4 (03:55):
I think that a lot of times plans are born
of desperate plans come from having few good alternatives. And
over the last couple of years, what you've seen is
that the Palestinians have been marginalized in the region. Not
(04:16):
many countries have shown a lot of interest in helping
the Palestinians. Fellow Arab nations have said, well, we'll work
with the Israelis. And it doesn't even if the Palestinian
situation is getting worse, Even as not Yahoo is expanding
his settlements illegally on Palestinian territory, you have governments lining
up to open diplomatic relations with Israel. So the Palestinians
(04:39):
are loosing there and the Palestinians are becoming irrelevant for
the Israelis. Israelis are focusing on things like corruption, scandals
and social descents and judicial reform, and all of that
I think is a useful context to understand why Hamas
(05:01):
would consider this kind of Attech because they increasingly felt
isolated and that nothing else was working for them. But
let's be clear, Haamas is not new to the terrorism game.
Harmas has been killing and trying to kill lots of
Israeli civilians for a long time. What has really changed
(05:21):
here dramatically is their ability to do so, and that
is not in Yahoo taking his eye off the ball.
The Israeli Prime Minister has access to the best border
security in the world. This is not like US Mexico
border security. This is serious border security. They have real
human intelligence, I mean gold standard signals intelligence on the
(05:44):
ground and in the air to be able to understand
exactly what the Palestinians are up to. And for the
last six months they have taken their eye off the ball.
They have not focused on this issue at all. In fact,
they've taken a lot of the defense forces off of
security with Gaga and put them into the West Bank
because they were expanding the settlements in their Palatinian reprisal. So,
(06:06):
I mean eighty six percent of Israelis in a poll
two days ago by the Jerusalem Post, which is a
right one newspaper in Israel, blame not Yahoo for this,
which is astonishing it's astonishing. So let's recognize that that's
the biggest thing that has changed is that the Israelis
do And if you're going to lock up the Palestindians
(06:26):
in Gaza, two point three million people, ninety percent don't
have access to water, fifty percent don't have access to
proper food. If you're going to do that and you're
going to take more of their land, you better focus
on national security. You better make sure the border is
secure and not in Yahoo didn't do that.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
So I want to get this question, and I know
I have a limited time with you if I'm if
I'm running China and my goal is to take Taiwan,
I can't imagine a better time than when the United
States is involved in this and the world is paying
attention to this, and you got an old president who
might not be completely with it mentally. Why wouldn't that.
Speaker 4 (06:59):
Have a lot of reasons. One is that China's growth
right now is very low, and if they take Taiwan,
it's going to be a disaster for Chinese growth. You
destroy companies that they do a lot of business with,
not least of which TSMC, one of the most important
strategic companies in the world with all the semiconductors, and
they don't get the high level semiconductors, so they get
(07:20):
everything else there. So that's key. Secondly, militarily, this is
an amphibious assault. It's over one hundred miles away from
China mainland China. I'm not sure they'd be able to
do it militarily right now. Certainly that's the view of
people that focus on this a lot more closely than
I do. And so I would be shocked to see
a sudden, sudden military attack by the Chinese against Taiwan.
(07:43):
And you know, this is a time when China has
been sending signals that they want to work more closely
with the United States. You know, they just met with
Chuck Schumer and a bipartisan group of senators for eighty minutes.
Chuck Schumer's wife won't meet with him for eighty minutes,
so you know, I mean, the fact that Chijin thing
did that in the run up to the Apex summit
(08:05):
with Biden next month, I mean, does show that they
are trying to normalize relations a little bit.
Speaker 2 (08:11):
And it sounds like you have some insight into the
Schumer marriage that maybe we'll ask you about the future.
Speaker 4 (08:15):
God. Yeah, yeah, that's a longer conversation.
Speaker 3 (08:17):
Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasia Group. A final thought, Ian,
and feel free to lead your next newsletter with this.
There is no way Joe Biden will be the candidate
of the Democratic Party for president next November. Zero chance.
If you bet me one hundred dollars up against both
of my femurs, I would take that bet. Go ahead, printed,
(08:39):
I'll do it.
Speaker 4 (08:40):
I will bet you that I want yours.
Speaker 5 (08:42):
I want yours, I want you.
Speaker 4 (08:46):
Had interest in yours, but I would definitely want them.
Speaker 3 (08:48):
Hang them on your wall is a trophy, That's fine.
I'm that confident.
Speaker 4 (08:53):
Yeah, Biden's de nominee.
Speaker 5 (08:54):
There is no plan b I mean look, I mean
I don't understand the fact is it's thirteen months away,
and my crystal ball tells me that he will be
thirteen months older in thirteen months, and that is a
big deal.
Speaker 4 (09:05):
That is non negligible. But the president wants to run.
Everyone around him recognizes that, and until that changes, there
is no other nominee. So, I mean, look, I think
that everyone out there would like the Americans to punt
the election to twenty twenty eight. Yeah, and then you'll
have two different candidates, but that is not where we are.
Speaker 2 (09:23):
God, twenty four is going to be a crazy year.
I'm sure we'll be.
Speaker 4 (09:25):
Talking a lot. I'm excited about this.
Speaker 3 (09:29):
Yeah, get that Hunsky ready for me. Ian Bremmer always
great to talk you and thanks.
Speaker 4 (09:33):
Very good guys.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
Yep, he's excited about your femurs, Armstrong and Getty
According to a diplomatic source, Hamas is preventing civilians inside
Gaza from leaving their homes when they are warned about
an impending strike by the Israelis. I confirmed this with
someone on the ground in Gaza City and then reached
out to Hamas for comment, a senior Hamas official telling
Fox News it's technically impossible. The initial information is good information,
(00:22):
and it is significant as we are getting reports today
about the Israelis telling all of the northern Gazan population
to leave because it appears a ground invasion is eminine well.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
Ian Bremer, who were about to talk to tweeted out
that more than four hundred thousand have already fled their
homes in North Gaza headed south, as recommended by the Israelis.
Speaker 3 (00:46):
And they headline The New York Times panic gripts Gaza
as Israel tells one point one million to leave the
north and Hamas is urging defiance of it. So I'd
say chaos is a fairly well applied term. Ian Bremer,
president of the Eurasia Group, author of the Power of Crisis,
to respect the commentator on a number of out let's Ian,
how are you always good to.
Speaker 4 (01:05):
Talk gentlemen, I've missed you, and likewise.
Speaker 3 (01:09):
It's good to talk. The immediate situation is chaotic enough.
I know you specialize in trying to imagine what the
next couple of steps are. How uncertain is the situation
right now?
Speaker 4 (01:22):
Well, it's very certain in the sense that the Israelis
are going to escalate their airstrikes into Gaza and eventually
a ground occupation into Gaza. That is very clear. And
while the evacuation is going apace already four hundred thousand
Palestinians of about two point three million Kasa that have
(01:46):
left their homes and are trying to get out of
Dodge for safety, far more are still going to be there.
They will be unwilling or incapable of leaving, and that
means that the civilian consequences for this war are going
to get much much worse. This is of course, very
dangerous for the Israelis in terms of the impact it
(02:10):
has on their relations around the world, and they have
to be careful here.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
Well, that's what we're just talking about. How wobbly do
you think the United States government, France and all these
other countries that have said we are with Israel one
hundred percent, howe hundred percent are they?
Speaker 4 (02:27):
I mean, you remember when Biden said a few months
ago that we're with Ukraine for as long as it takes,
which you know a lot of it takes. Is not
something you usually hear from an eighty year old. I mean,
I worry. I worry, of course, that the willingness of
the United States, in any circumstance to be significantly a
(02:48):
long term committed to a serious fight has a cell
by date. This is very far from the United States.
It's very far from the heart of the average American
citizen that has been through four years of America First
and twenty years of an Afghanistan war, in a decade
of an Iraq war. I mean, you have to use
(03:08):
that as context. But certainly Israel is an issue that
has very strong bipartisan support from Democrats and Republicans in
the US. Fighting against Islamic terror is something that draws
a lot of interest for Americans. And yes, you can
(03:28):
find some students at Harvard that will say that the
Israelis are responsible. That is by no means representative of
the vast majority of the country.
Speaker 3 (03:38):
Hey, let's look at this for a minute from the
perspective of Hamas, You don't plan an attack like this
for two years and spend the lives of a bunch
of fighters just to strike a blow then go hide again.
They have a plan, a strategy. What do you suppose
it is.
Speaker 4 (03:55):
I think that a lot of times plans are born
of desperate plans come from having few good alternatives. And
over the last couple of years, what you've seen is
that the Palestinians have been marginalized in the region. Not
(04:16):
many countries have shown a lot of interest in helping
the Palestinians. Fellow Arab nations have said, well, we'll work
with the Israelis. And it doesn't even if the Palestinian
situation is getting worse, Even as not Yahoo is expanding
his settlements illegally on Palestinian territory, you have governments lining
up to open diplomatic relations with Israel. So the Palestinians
(04:39):
are loosing there and the Palestinians are becoming irrelevant for
the Israelis. Israelis are focusing on things like corruption, scandals
and social descents and judicial reform, and all of that
I think is a useful context to understand why Hamas
(05:01):
would consider this kind of Attech because they increasingly felt
isolated and that nothing else was working for them. But
let's be clear, Haamas is not new to the terrorism game.
Harmas has been killing and trying to kill lots of
Israeli civilians for a long time. What has really changed
(05:21):
here dramatically is their ability to do so, and that
is not in Yahoo taking his eye off the ball.
The Israeli Prime Minister has access to the best border
security in the world. This is not like US Mexico
border security. This is serious border security. They have real
human intelligence, I mean gold standard signals intelligence on the
(05:44):
ground and in the air to be able to understand
exactly what the Palestinians are up to. And for the
last six months they have taken their eye off the ball.
They have not focused on this issue at all. In fact,
they've taken a lot of the defense forces off of
security with Gaga and put them into the West Bank
because they were expanding the settlements in their Palatinian reprisal. So,
(06:06):
I mean eighty six percent of Israelis in a poll
two days ago by the Jerusalem Post, which is a
right one newspaper in Israel, blame not Yahoo for this,
which is astonishing it's astonishing. So let's recognize that that's
the biggest thing that has changed is that the Israelis
do And if you're going to lock up the Palestindians
(06:26):
in Gaza, two point three million people, ninety percent don't
have access to water, fifty percent don't have access to
proper food. If you're going to do that and you're
going to take more of their land, you better focus
on national security. You better make sure the border is
secure and not in Yahoo didn't do that.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
So I want to get this question, and I know
I have a limited time with you if I'm if
I'm running China and my goal is to take Taiwan,
I can't imagine a better time than when the United
States is involved in this and the world is paying
attention to this, and you got an old president who
might not be completely with it mentally. Why wouldn't that.
Speaker 4 (06:59):
Have a lot of reasons. One is that China's growth
right now is very low, and if they take Taiwan,
it's going to be a disaster for Chinese growth. You
destroy companies that they do a lot of business with,
not least of which TSMC, one of the most important
strategic companies in the world with all the semiconductors, and
they don't get the high level semiconductors, so they get
(07:20):
everything else there. So that's key. Secondly, militarily, this is
an amphibious assault. It's over one hundred miles away from
China mainland China. I'm not sure they'd be able to
do it militarily right now. Certainly that's the view of
people that focus on this a lot more closely than
I do. And so I would be shocked to see
a sudden, sudden military attack by the Chinese against Taiwan.
(07:43):
And you know, this is a time when China has
been sending signals that they want to work more closely
with the United States. You know, they just met with
Chuck Schumer and a bipartisan group of senators for eighty minutes.
Chuck Schumer's wife won't meet with him for eighty minutes,
so you know, I mean, the fact that Chijin thing
did that in the run up to the Apex summit
(08:05):
with Biden next month, I mean, does show that they
are trying to normalize relations a little bit.
Speaker 2 (08:11):
And it sounds like you have some insight into the
Schumer marriage that maybe we'll ask you about the future.
Speaker 4 (08:15):
God. Yeah, yeah, that's a longer conversation.
Speaker 3 (08:17):
Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasia Group. A final thought, Ian,
and feel free to lead your next newsletter with this.
There is no way Joe Biden will be the candidate
of the Democratic Party for president next November. Zero chance.
If you bet me one hundred dollars up against both
of my femurs, I would take that bet. Go ahead, printed,
(08:39):
I'll do it.
Speaker 4 (08:40):
I will bet you that I want yours.
Speaker 5 (08:42):
I want yours, I want you.
Speaker 4 (08:46):
Had interest in yours, but I would definitely want them.
Speaker 3 (08:48):
Hang them on your wall is a trophy, That's fine.
I'm that confident.
Speaker 4 (08:53):
Yeah, Biden's de nominee.
Speaker 5 (08:54):
There is no plan b I mean look, I mean
I don't understand the fact is it's thirteen months away,
and my crystal ball tells me that he will be
thirteen months older in thirteen months, and that is a
big deal.
Speaker 4 (09:05):
That is non negligible. But the president wants to run.
Everyone around him recognizes that, and until that changes, there
is no other nominee. So, I mean, look, I think
that everyone out there would like the Americans to punt
the election to twenty twenty eight. Yeah, and then you'll
have two different candidates, but that is not where we are.
Speaker 2 (09:23):
God, twenty four is going to be a crazy year.
I'm sure we'll be.
Speaker 4 (09:25):
Talking a lot. I'm excited about this.
Speaker 3 (09:29):
Yeah, get that Hunsky ready for me. Ian Bremmer always
great to talk you and thanks.
Speaker 4 (09:33):
Very good guys.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
Yep, he's excited about your femurs, Armstrong and Getty
Hosts And Creators
Joe Getty
Jack Armstrong
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