January 11, 2024 • 14 mins
The Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer joins Joe Getty to to talk about the Top Risks of 2024.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
There are questions about how much a second term of
a Donald Trump presidency, second term would be about retribution
and looking backwards and grievances, and how much would be
looking forward.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
I'm not going to have time for retribution.
Speaker 1 (00:12):
We're going to make this country so successful again.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
I'm not going to have time for retribution.
Speaker 3 (00:16):
Donald Trump town hall meeting yesterday. I selected that clip
to lead into a discussion with Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group,
intentionally for reasons that we will explain in a moment.
Every year, when the top Risks of the year come out,
I feel like I felt as a little kid after
ordering something from a serial box that was going to
take six to eight weeks for delivery, and twelve weeks later,
(00:37):
when I'd completely forgotten i ordered it. I was thrilled
to see it there in the mailbox. I always love
reading and digesting the top risks of the year. And
Ian Bremmer, President, founder of the Eurasia Group, joins us Ian, how.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
Are you, sir, Hey, I'm great. Happy to you, my friend,
Thank you right back at you.
Speaker 3 (00:53):
So the top risks are interesting, as they always are,
but what really caught my first was what you call
the red herrings things we probably don't have to worry
about so much, in particular the US China crisis.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
Wait a minute, we're fixated on that, should we not be? Yeah,
it was probably the biggest silver lining in the report.
Speaker 4 (01:13):
And you know, in part the Americans and the Biden
administration having its hands so full with Russia, Ukraine and
with the Middle East and with the elections, they really
don't want a crisis with the Chinese. And they're trying
to build out regular military to military, high level of
(01:35):
engagement and on the diplomatic side and on the economic side,
not because they're going to suddenly we're going to start
trusting each other, but rather when there are.
Speaker 2 (01:44):
Conflicts like over Taiwana the South China, see.
Speaker 4 (01:46):
That we can respond and contain in The Chinese don't
have elections to worry about, but they have a seriously
underperforming economy and they don't want anything to make that
even worse. So for both reasons, at least through the
US elections, I think that this is going to be
a better managed, difficult relationship than we've seen over the
(02:08):
last few years.
Speaker 3 (02:10):
So you want us to turn our watchful eye away
from China, I have to ask are you now or
have you ever been a member of the Chinese Communist Party.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
I think it's a little question.
Speaker 4 (02:19):
I mean, you know, there's been a long standing card
carrying member of the Chinese Communist Party. I did get
to China finally after having not been there through the
pandemic a few weeks ago, and definitely that the meetings
I had made me feel only more strongly that while
they're deeply unhappy about a whole bunch of things that
(02:41):
they're facing from the Americans right now, that this is
not the time. So it's not like they're suddenly becoming
our friends, but there is a recognition they need to
bide their time, and I think that, frankly, in this environment,
will take it.
Speaker 3 (02:55):
So as long as we're talking about China, risk number
six is no China recovery. How strong are their economic headwinds,
How much trouble are they in.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
They're in a lot of trouble Economically.
Speaker 4 (03:07):
For fifty years, they were the factory of the world,
and that was really really inexpensive labor that everyone wanted
to go and get their production from.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
Well, their labor's gotten a lot more expensive.
Speaker 4 (03:20):
There are political demands to start building stuff in other
places like hey here in the United States and in Mexico,
and friendshoring with our buddies, semiconductors, critical minerals, all of
this kind of stuff. So the broad model is turning
against them. At the same time as three years of
zero COVID, they turned around and said, Okay, now everyone
(03:43):
can get COVID, let's open the economy.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
But the consumers aren't spending.
Speaker 4 (03:46):
They're saving because they don't feel like they can trust
a robust Chinese economy. Youth unemployment's very high. They've got
a really ailing real estate sector that they've produced into
a bubble, but a lot of it is unproductive assets.
And they've got a lot of local and corporate debt
that is bad and that is being propped up by
(04:06):
the Chinese banking system. That's a closed economy, but no
one can pay it off. So you put it all together,
I mean, this isn't like China is going to start contracting,
but I mean two three percent growth this year next
year feels like feels robust.
Speaker 2 (04:24):
In this environment.
Speaker 4 (04:25):
So if you look back on two thousand and eight
with the financial crisis and everyone's worried, it was the
Chinese that put you know, sort of hundreds of billions
of dollars into you know, stimulating the economy, shovel ready
products and the help the world grow again.
Speaker 2 (04:39):
That is not happening in twenty twenty four. Interesting.
Speaker 3 (04:42):
I'd love to talk about that all day, especially since
the Chinese Communist Party depends on economic growth and prosperity
as they're for their legitimacy. But let's do a little
bingo bangabongo on the top five and okay, I've summoned
up the kurage.
Speaker 2 (04:54):
Let's dive in number one.
Speaker 3 (04:56):
The United States versus itself is the top risk of
the year.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
Tell what you said in.
Speaker 4 (05:02):
The opening that Trump Trump won't have time for retribution.
But I mean Trump said he can end the Ukraine
War in a day. He said he only needs to
be dictator for a day. So I mean, with that
kind of time management, how could he not find time
for Regald.
Speaker 2 (05:19):
Well.
Speaker 3 (05:19):
I think that was what comes out of the north
end of a south going bowl, clearly. But so this
election season you expect to be ugly beyond ugly.
Speaker 4 (05:31):
Yeah, I mean, the US economy is doing fine and
the US military is world class, but our political system
is in crisis and for the people that ask me, well,
why are we so worried in twenty twenty four, I
mean he was president in twenty sixteen, it was fine.
Speaker 2 (05:46):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (05:46):
You know, if you're flying a plane at forty thousand
feet and it is sunny skies and you hand the
controls over for half an hour to someone that does
know how to fly a plane, you'll probably be okay.
If you are trying to land that plane in a
hurricane and you can't see the runway, handing the controls
over to someone that you can't trust, that doesn't know
(06:08):
how to fly a plane real well may well crash
the plane. And that is exactly what we're looking at
from this twenty twenty four election. It is a very
dangerous environment and there is and you have Biden versus Trump,
who's the stakes of this election for each of them
is so much higher. Trump probably goes to jail if
(06:31):
he loses. Biden and many of his advisors think that
a politicized IRS, FBI doj under Trump means they'll be investigated,
they may face arrest themselves. So the need to ensure
that you win and to use every method possible, including
extra legal, is extremely motivating. This time around, at a
(06:56):
time that a majority of the American people don't trust
their institutions anymore, don't believe in the legitimacy of this
transfer of power.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
And that's unique.
Speaker 4 (07:05):
The US has that problem in a way that Japan, Canada,
Germany do not. So our allies around the world and
the leaders that I speak to, they are very deeply
concerned about this well.
Speaker 3 (07:15):
And at the same time, you have, for the first
time ever a leading presidential candidate under ninety one felony indictments,
a number of which are patently ridiculous, some of which
arguably are not. But you show a number of or
you have a number of charts in this section that
show the shocking decline in America's contradence and everything from
(07:36):
the Supreme Court to Congress, of the Presidency, to organized religion,
to schools, to newspapers to news on the internet.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
It's just crazy. It's a cynical, cynical time.
Speaker 4 (07:46):
Yeah, And if you had to point to one reason,
we know the inequality and we know the identity politics.
But if you had to point to one, I would
say that over the last thirty years, all of the
institutions that help us raise our kids and create civic
minded citizens. The nurture of the American environment have really eroded.
(08:11):
The church and its membership has really eroded. The family
has really eroded. The school, the public school systems have eroded,
the Little League. I mean all this stuff, and it
had for a while, it wasn't replaced, but now it
has been, and it's been replaced by algorithm. It's been
replaced by social media and by artificial intelligence that is
determining who we connect with the information would digest, but
(08:34):
not to make us civic minded, instead to addict us
and make us better consumers, and that is destroying American democracy.
Speaker 2 (08:43):
Wow.
Speaker 3 (08:43):
That's another huge topic, but pressed for time, let's move on.
How worried about the Middle East? Are you that the
conflict between Israel and the various arrayed forces explode into
a regional conflict.
Speaker 4 (08:57):
I don't think that we're on track for the US
versus Iran at war, which is good because that would
be one hundred and fifty two hundred dollars oil in
a global recession. But I think the war is going
to escalate, it's going to expand. Very hard to see
how you maintain the war to the territory largely of
Gaza and Hamas, given the threat that the Israeli War Cabinet,
(09:20):
the whole war cabinet feels that Hesbelah reflects in the North,
and the need to degrade them, the perceived need.
Speaker 2 (09:27):
To push them back from the border.
Speaker 4 (09:29):
Also, despite America's efforts with allies to deter the Huthis
from Yemen from attacking shipping through the Red Sea, that's
not working, and so the likelihood that we have to
attack them in Yemen in their bases, expanding the war,
not to mention Iranian proxies in Syria and Iraq, and
of course the millions and millions of Muslims in the
(09:51):
region and in the US and Europe that are becoming
more radicalized on the back of all of this, some
of whom will turn to violence. It is you look
at all of that together and you say, how do
we keep this contained to Gaza?
Speaker 2 (10:02):
It's very very unlikely. Yikes.
Speaker 3 (10:05):
All right, Moving on again, far prematurely of the partition
to Ukraine. How could anything change in Ukraine at this
point and what does it mean if it doesn't.
Speaker 4 (10:18):
The most likely way it changes is the Ukrainians lose support,
they get desperate and the Russians are able to take
more land, the status quo may also hold. The least
likely thing is that the Ukrainians are able to take
their land back. So I want them to take their
land back. I'm not happy about a partition in Ukraine.
(10:38):
Then again, I'm not happy about the Taliban running Afghanistan
or North Korean having nuclear weapons, and those things are
true too, So I mean, yeah, Ukraine is going to
get split in two, and the question is where and how,
And no one in Ukraine's going to accept that outcome,
and the Europeans are mostly not going to accept that,
and a lot of people in the US aren't.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
But it's becoming divided.
Speaker 4 (10:59):
And you know, we had peak NATO last year, we
had peak Transatlantic relations last year.
Speaker 2 (11:04):
It's going to get harder.
Speaker 4 (11:06):
And that will become even more true when Trump gets
the nomination in the United States, because he of course
sees Zelenski as a political enemy who refused to do
his bidding when he demanded that he opened investigations in
Di Biden the Sun Hunter. So if he becomes president,
he's going to say, you have to accept a deal
(11:26):
with the Russians. That will be on its face unacceptable
to the Ukrainians and if not, you're losing all your support.
And that is going to divide NATO in two the polls,
the Finns, the Swedes, the Baults on one side, but
the Italians and the Hungarians and others joining with Trump
and saying, hey, yeah, let's work with the Russians again.
(11:49):
That is a very serious problem for the EU and
for NATO.
Speaker 3 (11:52):
Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group online, talking about the
top risks of twenty twenty four one, more has there
ever been a wild guess ethon more wild than trying
to figure out what is AI? What's it going to become,
and what it's going to mean to mankind? That's one
of your your top risks.
Speaker 4 (12:11):
I'm very excited about what AI is going to mean
to mankind.
Speaker 2 (12:14):
Economically.
Speaker 4 (12:15):
I think it's incredible, the ability to unlock human capital,
to reduce waste in processes and to improve efficiency in
every sector, which means, you know, unlike climate change, where
you move to transition energy and you royally piss off
a whole bunch of people that are committed to fossil
fuels and are making their money that way. With AI,
you know, people that are in existing powerful companies all
(12:37):
want to use it, and so you're going to see
roll out much much faster. That's the good side, and
I'm very enthusiastic about that.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
The bad side is.
Speaker 4 (12:45):
That the tech is moving a lot faster than the
ability to regulate it than the governance, and so that
means that you will have massive proliferation. GPT five, which
makes four look like a child's toy, will come out
this year, and it will be in the hands of
hundreds of millions of people, some of whom are bad actors.
Some of them will use it and will use knockoffs
(13:06):
that come out months later to to right now where
as code, and to engage in cyber attacks and to
program new weapons like leathal autonomous drones, and to promote disinformation.
And I think twenty twenty four is probably the first
year when those disruptions become risks that scare.
Speaker 3 (13:26):
I realized this is a bit of a childlike summation,
But it seems like the good guys are going to
get much more efficient and the bad guys are going
to get much more efficient with AI, and everything's going
to move even faster than it does now.
Speaker 4 (13:39):
Yeah, I think there are a lot more good guys
than bad guys, and I think this is going to
reflect a new wave of globalization, which we desperately need
for a planet that is, you know, that is facing
challenges from politics and from climate and the rest. But
the question is how much damage can a relatively small
(14:00):
number of people do when they have really powerful weapons,
And I fear we're about to find out.
Speaker 3 (14:06):
Ian Bremer of Eurasia Group, Ian It's Always Stimulating, will
have a link so that folks can download the entire
report for themselves.
Speaker 2 (14:13):
Great to talk to you and have a great year.
So happy to stimulate you. Thank you. We'll talk again soon.
See ya, Comi Armstrong and Getty
There are questions about how much a second term of
a Donald Trump presidency, second term would be about retribution
and looking backwards and grievances, and how much would be
looking forward.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
I'm not going to have time for retribution.
Speaker 1 (00:12):
We're going to make this country so successful again.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
I'm not going to have time for retribution.
Speaker 3 (00:16):
Donald Trump town hall meeting yesterday. I selected that clip
to lead into a discussion with Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group,
intentionally for reasons that we will explain in a moment.
Every year, when the top Risks of the year come out,
I feel like I felt as a little kid after
ordering something from a serial box that was going to
take six to eight weeks for delivery, and twelve weeks later,
(00:37):
when I'd completely forgotten i ordered it. I was thrilled
to see it there in the mailbox. I always love
reading and digesting the top risks of the year. And
Ian Bremmer, President, founder of the Eurasia Group, joins us Ian, how.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
Are you, sir, Hey, I'm great. Happy to you, my friend,
Thank you right back at you.
Speaker 3 (00:53):
So the top risks are interesting, as they always are,
but what really caught my first was what you call
the red herrings things we probably don't have to worry
about so much, in particular the US China crisis.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
Wait a minute, we're fixated on that, should we not be? Yeah,
it was probably the biggest silver lining in the report.
Speaker 4 (01:13):
And you know, in part the Americans and the Biden
administration having its hands so full with Russia, Ukraine and
with the Middle East and with the elections, they really
don't want a crisis with the Chinese. And they're trying
to build out regular military to military, high level of
(01:35):
engagement and on the diplomatic side and on the economic side,
not because they're going to suddenly we're going to start
trusting each other, but rather when there are.
Speaker 2 (01:44):
Conflicts like over Taiwana the South China, see.
Speaker 4 (01:46):
That we can respond and contain in The Chinese don't
have elections to worry about, but they have a seriously
underperforming economy and they don't want anything to make that
even worse. So for both reasons, at least through the
US elections, I think that this is going to be
a better managed, difficult relationship than we've seen over the
(02:08):
last few years.
Speaker 3 (02:10):
So you want us to turn our watchful eye away
from China, I have to ask are you now or
have you ever been a member of the Chinese Communist Party.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
I think it's a little question.
Speaker 4 (02:19):
I mean, you know, there's been a long standing card
carrying member of the Chinese Communist Party. I did get
to China finally after having not been there through the
pandemic a few weeks ago, and definitely that the meetings
I had made me feel only more strongly that while
they're deeply unhappy about a whole bunch of things that
(02:41):
they're facing from the Americans right now, that this is
not the time. So it's not like they're suddenly becoming
our friends, but there is a recognition they need to
bide their time, and I think that, frankly, in this environment,
will take it.
Speaker 3 (02:55):
So as long as we're talking about China, risk number
six is no China recovery. How strong are their economic headwinds,
How much trouble are they in.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
They're in a lot of trouble Economically.
Speaker 4 (03:07):
For fifty years, they were the factory of the world,
and that was really really inexpensive labor that everyone wanted
to go and get their production from.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
Well, their labor's gotten a lot more expensive.
Speaker 4 (03:20):
There are political demands to start building stuff in other
places like hey here in the United States and in Mexico,
and friendshoring with our buddies, semiconductors, critical minerals, all of
this kind of stuff. So the broad model is turning
against them. At the same time as three years of
zero COVID, they turned around and said, Okay, now everyone
(03:43):
can get COVID, let's open the economy.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
But the consumers aren't spending.
Speaker 4 (03:46):
They're saving because they don't feel like they can trust
a robust Chinese economy. Youth unemployment's very high. They've got
a really ailing real estate sector that they've produced into
a bubble, but a lot of it is unproductive assets.
And they've got a lot of local and corporate debt
that is bad and that is being propped up by
(04:06):
the Chinese banking system. That's a closed economy, but no
one can pay it off. So you put it all together,
I mean, this isn't like China is going to start contracting,
but I mean two three percent growth this year next
year feels like feels robust.
Speaker 2 (04:24):
In this environment.
Speaker 4 (04:25):
So if you look back on two thousand and eight
with the financial crisis and everyone's worried, it was the
Chinese that put you know, sort of hundreds of billions
of dollars into you know, stimulating the economy, shovel ready
products and the help the world grow again.
Speaker 2 (04:39):
That is not happening in twenty twenty four. Interesting.
Speaker 3 (04:42):
I'd love to talk about that all day, especially since
the Chinese Communist Party depends on economic growth and prosperity
as they're for their legitimacy. But let's do a little
bingo bangabongo on the top five and okay, I've summoned
up the kurage.
Speaker 2 (04:54):
Let's dive in number one.
Speaker 3 (04:56):
The United States versus itself is the top risk of
the year.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
Tell what you said in.
Speaker 4 (05:02):
The opening that Trump Trump won't have time for retribution.
But I mean Trump said he can end the Ukraine
War in a day. He said he only needs to
be dictator for a day. So I mean, with that
kind of time management, how could he not find time
for Regald.
Speaker 2 (05:19):
Well.
Speaker 3 (05:19):
I think that was what comes out of the north
end of a south going bowl, clearly. But so this
election season you expect to be ugly beyond ugly.
Speaker 4 (05:31):
Yeah, I mean, the US economy is doing fine and
the US military is world class, but our political system
is in crisis and for the people that ask me, well,
why are we so worried in twenty twenty four, I
mean he was president in twenty sixteen, it was fine.
Speaker 2 (05:46):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (05:46):
You know, if you're flying a plane at forty thousand
feet and it is sunny skies and you hand the
controls over for half an hour to someone that does
know how to fly a plane, you'll probably be okay.
If you are trying to land that plane in a
hurricane and you can't see the runway, handing the controls
over to someone that you can't trust, that doesn't know
(06:08):
how to fly a plane real well may well crash
the plane. And that is exactly what we're looking at
from this twenty twenty four election. It is a very
dangerous environment and there is and you have Biden versus Trump,
who's the stakes of this election for each of them
is so much higher. Trump probably goes to jail if
(06:31):
he loses. Biden and many of his advisors think that
a politicized IRS, FBI doj under Trump means they'll be investigated,
they may face arrest themselves. So the need to ensure
that you win and to use every method possible, including
extra legal, is extremely motivating. This time around, at a
(06:56):
time that a majority of the American people don't trust
their institutions anymore, don't believe in the legitimacy of this
transfer of power.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
And that's unique.
Speaker 4 (07:05):
The US has that problem in a way that Japan, Canada,
Germany do not. So our allies around the world and
the leaders that I speak to, they are very deeply
concerned about this well.
Speaker 3 (07:15):
And at the same time, you have, for the first
time ever a leading presidential candidate under ninety one felony indictments,
a number of which are patently ridiculous, some of which
arguably are not. But you show a number of or
you have a number of charts in this section that
show the shocking decline in America's contradence and everything from
(07:36):
the Supreme Court to Congress, of the Presidency, to organized religion,
to schools, to newspapers to news on the internet.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
It's just crazy. It's a cynical, cynical time.
Speaker 4 (07:46):
Yeah, And if you had to point to one reason,
we know the inequality and we know the identity politics.
But if you had to point to one, I would
say that over the last thirty years, all of the
institutions that help us raise our kids and create civic
minded citizens. The nurture of the American environment have really eroded.
(08:11):
The church and its membership has really eroded. The family
has really eroded. The school, the public school systems have eroded,
the Little League. I mean all this stuff, and it
had for a while, it wasn't replaced, but now it
has been, and it's been replaced by algorithm. It's been
replaced by social media and by artificial intelligence that is
determining who we connect with the information would digest, but
(08:34):
not to make us civic minded, instead to addict us
and make us better consumers, and that is destroying American democracy.
Speaker 2 (08:43):
Wow.
Speaker 3 (08:43):
That's another huge topic, but pressed for time, let's move on.
How worried about the Middle East? Are you that the
conflict between Israel and the various arrayed forces explode into
a regional conflict.
Speaker 4 (08:57):
I don't think that we're on track for the US
versus Iran at war, which is good because that would
be one hundred and fifty two hundred dollars oil in
a global recession. But I think the war is going
to escalate, it's going to expand. Very hard to see
how you maintain the war to the territory largely of
Gaza and Hamas, given the threat that the Israeli War Cabinet,
(09:20):
the whole war cabinet feels that Hesbelah reflects in the North,
and the need to degrade them, the perceived need.
Speaker 2 (09:27):
To push them back from the border.
Speaker 4 (09:29):
Also, despite America's efforts with allies to deter the Huthis
from Yemen from attacking shipping through the Red Sea, that's
not working, and so the likelihood that we have to
attack them in Yemen in their bases, expanding the war,
not to mention Iranian proxies in Syria and Iraq, and
of course the millions and millions of Muslims in the
(09:51):
region and in the US and Europe that are becoming
more radicalized on the back of all of this, some
of whom will turn to violence. It is you look
at all of that together and you say, how do
we keep this contained to Gaza?
Speaker 2 (10:02):
It's very very unlikely. Yikes.
Speaker 3 (10:05):
All right, Moving on again, far prematurely of the partition
to Ukraine. How could anything change in Ukraine at this
point and what does it mean if it doesn't.
Speaker 4 (10:18):
The most likely way it changes is the Ukrainians lose support,
they get desperate and the Russians are able to take
more land, the status quo may also hold. The least
likely thing is that the Ukrainians are able to take
their land back. So I want them to take their
land back. I'm not happy about a partition in Ukraine.
(10:38):
Then again, I'm not happy about the Taliban running Afghanistan
or North Korean having nuclear weapons, and those things are
true too, So I mean, yeah, Ukraine is going to
get split in two, and the question is where and how,
And no one in Ukraine's going to accept that outcome,
and the Europeans are mostly not going to accept that,
and a lot of people in the US aren't.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
But it's becoming divided.
Speaker 4 (10:59):
And you know, we had peak NATO last year, we
had peak Transatlantic relations last year.
Speaker 2 (11:04):
It's going to get harder.
Speaker 4 (11:06):
And that will become even more true when Trump gets
the nomination in the United States, because he of course
sees Zelenski as a political enemy who refused to do
his bidding when he demanded that he opened investigations in
Di Biden the Sun Hunter. So if he becomes president,
he's going to say, you have to accept a deal
(11:26):
with the Russians. That will be on its face unacceptable
to the Ukrainians and if not, you're losing all your support.
And that is going to divide NATO in two the polls,
the Finns, the Swedes, the Baults on one side, but
the Italians and the Hungarians and others joining with Trump
and saying, hey, yeah, let's work with the Russians again.
(11:49):
That is a very serious problem for the EU and
for NATO.
Speaker 3 (11:52):
Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group online, talking about the
top risks of twenty twenty four one, more has there
ever been a wild guess ethon more wild than trying
to figure out what is AI? What's it going to become,
and what it's going to mean to mankind? That's one
of your your top risks.
Speaker 4 (12:11):
I'm very excited about what AI is going to mean
to mankind.
Speaker 2 (12:14):
Economically.
Speaker 4 (12:15):
I think it's incredible, the ability to unlock human capital,
to reduce waste in processes and to improve efficiency in
every sector, which means, you know, unlike climate change, where
you move to transition energy and you royally piss off
a whole bunch of people that are committed to fossil
fuels and are making their money that way. With AI,
you know, people that are in existing powerful companies all
(12:37):
want to use it, and so you're going to see
roll out much much faster. That's the good side, and
I'm very enthusiastic about that.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
The bad side is.
Speaker 4 (12:45):
That the tech is moving a lot faster than the
ability to regulate it than the governance, and so that
means that you will have massive proliferation. GPT five, which
makes four look like a child's toy, will come out
this year, and it will be in the hands of
hundreds of millions of people, some of whom are bad actors.
Some of them will use it and will use knockoffs
(13:06):
that come out months later to to right now where
as code, and to engage in cyber attacks and to
program new weapons like leathal autonomous drones, and to promote disinformation.
And I think twenty twenty four is probably the first
year when those disruptions become risks that scare.
Speaker 3 (13:26):
I realized this is a bit of a childlike summation,
But it seems like the good guys are going to
get much more efficient and the bad guys are going
to get much more efficient with AI, and everything's going
to move even faster than it does now.
Speaker 4 (13:39):
Yeah, I think there are a lot more good guys
than bad guys, and I think this is going to
reflect a new wave of globalization, which we desperately need
for a planet that is, you know, that is facing
challenges from politics and from climate and the rest. But
the question is how much damage can a relatively small
(14:00):
number of people do when they have really powerful weapons,
And I fear we're about to find out.
Speaker 3 (14:06):
Ian Bremer of Eurasia Group, Ian It's Always Stimulating, will
have a link so that folks can download the entire
report for themselves.
Speaker 2 (14:13):
Great to talk to you and have a great year.
So happy to stimulate you. Thank you. We'll talk again soon.
See ya, Comi Armstrong and Getty
Hosts And Creators
Joe Getty
Jack Armstrong
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