March 14, 2022 • 12 mins
As Russian dictator Vladimir Putin continues to ratchet-up the violence in Ukraine, military analyst Mike Lyons joins Armstrong & Getty to talk about the latest developments and his concerns for a nuclear strike on the US homeland.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
From the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio at the George Washington
Broadcast Center, Jack Armstrong and Joe Jetty Armstrong and Jetty Show.
I think it deserves serious consideration. I think we need
to look at the gamut of options that are out
there for us. We need to calculate the risk and
be smart about it. I think you have to at
(00:23):
that point consider a note fly zone. I think is
a pretty logical next step. But I'll give you a
halfway house. That would be going back to the idea
of getting fighters in the hands of the Ukrainians, and
I get all the puts and takes of that. You
want Ukraine to do the note they would basically be
the ones to do it, not NATO. Is that is
that the goal on this is so that's Admiral James
(00:46):
Stravitis who is on WELSO with a former ambassador and
they both were for a no fly zone and the
admirals take I saw him on MSNBC today he said,
might take from looking at the talk shows over the
weekend and and statements out of the White Houses that
everything is now on the table. So, as I was
saying last week, I feel like at least the the mood,
(01:11):
the weight of the conversation is moving toward a no
fly zone. Mike Lions did tweet out yesterday it would
invite even a small nuclear response, possibly on the homeland
from Russia, which is a big deal. Hello. Well, speaking
of Mike Clions, military analyst of my clients, West Point graduate,
(01:31):
served with various American military here. He organizations both on
the home front and in Europe and in uh Iraq
through his career. Joins US. Now, Mike Lions, how are you,
sir guys? It's to make amazing to me if you know.
I don't want to go against the fourth star general obviously,
but the fourth star making that kind of comment is
almost irresponsible in terms of what all the nuance that
(01:52):
has to go in. Did he kind of then say, oh,
it's because the Ukraines are going to do the new
flight zone. Do you think they would do that now
if they could twenty nine nig airplanes and not changing
the calculus on that. I'm just surprised that we're there
that's being floated politically still on any level here, that
is completely off the table unless we want to risk
having an attack on our homeland, our attack in a
(02:14):
European city or something, because that's really what it would
lead to. Well, so I was a little concerned over
the weekend. UM, modern journalism being what it is in
the twenty four hour news cycle and everything like that.
Is this a bad idea that we're nailing so many
things down? Um? And maybe all this talk of the
no flight his own is just to have it out there.
So Putin thinks that it's possibly on the table because
(02:36):
this constantly taking everything, a bunch of things off the
table to satisfy Chuck tadd and meet the presser whoever,
I'm not any good, right, And that's there's an argument
to that, But I don't think he is of that ilk.
He has his own agenda and doesn't necessarily look at
what's he sees what's done and not what we're doing
as opposed to what we're not doing. I understand how
(02:59):
that you could dissuaded by that, But that's not the
kind of enemy we're dealing with. That. That's again we're
projecting our values on our own way and trying to
psychoanalyze our behavior. You're right, the administration is putting all
these things that are out there that we're not doing
but the bottom line is we aren't doing them. We're
not going to do them, and so so it's fine.
And in some ways he knows that that he random
and Putin does control this whole thing because he's the
(03:21):
one who invaded. When I hear Mitt Romney say things
like we've gotta, you know, turn the tide on him
and we've gotta get back in control. No no, no, no,
there's no us controlling. This is his war. This is
this regional conflict that exists there. You want to insert
yourself in it, you want to go to the war
with the nuclear power, then then let's have that conversation
and see what that leads us to. So again, this
is not about trying to gain some kind of upper
(03:43):
hand with him. We're not in this conflict. We really aren't.
Other than supporting Ukraine, like we are pouring ammunition and
pouring supplies and that's really all we can do. And
you your tweet was, so you think Putin would actually
strike the United States with a nuclear weapon, And I
think it's possible. I think that we have to consider it.
(04:03):
I mean, and it's not it's not going to be
something that's going to come from the ural mountains, it's
going to travel across space. You know, we're gonna have
time to think about it. Where he's gonna take a submarine,
he's gonna get it close to he's going to get
close to our shores. He's gonna launch a weapon. He's
gonna launch something that could hit our our homeland. I
don't see. I don't see if if we decide to
put in an off fly zone and take a Patriot
(04:25):
missile and fire it from Poland, fire from a NATO
country and it chases down a MiG SOVIETNIG plane over
Russia and and kill the Russian pilot over Russia, I
don't see how he's not responding. I don't see. I
don't see what is what he's got to respond. I
don't totally crap. This is a conversation. Well, indeed it is.
And and you know, Mike, these are extremely difficult questions
(04:48):
and only hindsight is in these matters. But if if
we are to preclude, to eliminate any action that might
provoke putin to do of things you've said, let's bring
us a conversation, all right, what if there is an
accidental strike in Poland? What if he uh you know, Yeah,
there are, there are a number of what ifs. At
(05:10):
some point, I think we need to be willing to
do things that might provoke a horrific, cataclysmic reaction or
we're paralyzed. I'm not sure where that is or what
that is. I think he has to do that first. So,
for example, what happened over the weekend, the Interdictions strike
deep in western Ukraine. That was a huge risk for
them because they had to do that with pilots. They
(05:30):
don't have cruise missiles that have enough accuracy, believe it
or not, that can hit a target that could be
sixteen miles within a Polish border, within the NATO border.
So he put min at risk in order to do
that mission. Why he knew it was important, I'm suppose
he didn't do it before, but he knew that he
couldn't make a mistake on it either. He knew he
couldn't just fire a bunch of cruise missiles at it
and have him possibly miss and strike Poland, because then
(05:52):
then possibly then we could respond and do something. Because
because if we entered this battle conventionally, if we decided
to come in and we have eight and lined up
someplace and bet that convoy, for example, that forty mile
convoy in done in four hours. I mean it's molten
rubbish in four hours. That the balance of power gets
tipped so quickly back on the side of Ukraine that
(06:14):
the level of embarrassment that Vladimir Putin suffers is amazing.
So again he's cognizant of the fact that he doesn't
want to bring us in the red line. Everyone talks
about the red line, the red lines, the border. That's
the bottom line. There's no chemicals, there's no nuclear The
red line is the Ukraine board. As long as if
that's not violated, there's not much we can do, I think,
at least offensively in order to stop him. And then
(06:35):
of course, if we are, for instance, we take out
that convoy and he gets that on the news in Russia,
then all of a sudden, the public opinion swings towards
him as he gets to say he's at war with
the the evil United States. Right, So the hundred and
forty million people right now who are confused about what's
going on are no longer confused because now NATO has
attacked Russia, attacked the Motherland. They start the music up,
(06:57):
they start all those old videos up about the Great War.
Here we go. At the end of the day, Russia
has capacity. They do have things that they can do.
They have those nuclear weapons, they have they have a
lot of different capacity. Now their military has failed miserably,
no question about it. The fact that they know Ukraine
is not even close to being a peer competitor with them.
But the fact that they've had to standoff for now,
(07:18):
which is every day that goes by Ukraine actually gets stronger,
standoff gets more. I'm not gonna start to be worried
about stinger missiles that are inside there. Let's hope they'll
find their way back to shores. Hopefully I have some
accountability about those, because those weapons can find their way
outside of Ukraine into the hands of other people. So
there's a down side also of putting a lot of
(07:38):
this material into the Ukraine military and making sure that
they use it. Military analysts Mike Lions on the line, Mike,
I know your student not only of military strategy, but
society too. It is going to be difficult to contain
the passions of the Western world when the videos start
to emerge from say Mariopola or or or Kiev. When
it finally falls of literally starved children, and and it
(08:01):
scenes of horror and carnage and or maybe or maybe
Zelinsky on his knees somewhere. So again, and we need
to get him out of there. He's got to survive this.
I still think that the Israeli Prime Minister, when he
went there a few weeks ago, I think he whispered
in his ear said, look, it's not going to be
a good look if you assassinate a Jewish head of state.
We're not gonna look filing upon that um. And we
(08:23):
need to get the Chinese in the game. I know,
I think we're meeting with them this afternoon in Rome,
but basically sell them, you better get your tach dog
on a leash here, and you better figure this out
because we're gonna start sanctioning you. We've got to get tougher.
We have to show power in places like that. About
with the Chinese and other influences of Russia, I mean,
Russia asking to Chinese for military and logistical supplies? Is
(08:45):
that a serious request? And the Chinese are actually gonna
consider it, So again, that's they're not even a superpower anymore.
If that, If that is the case, so that's where
this is going to if we're gonna be in on this,
so does the Chinese, and the Chinese need to get
the Russians on the leash pretty quick. I was watching
David Martin on CBS News yesterday. He said, Russia in
the next couple of weeks is going to have to
(09:06):
resupply either people, are equipment or something. I mean, because
they didn't expect this to last that long. Does that
sound accurate to you, Yeah, there's no second echelon here. Normally,
Russian doctrine deploys in multiple waves, um and they have
different groups that come on and kind of passed through,
and but this wasn't the plan here. This was a
(09:28):
special operations group. So for example, they're eventually they're running
out of animal they running out of artillery in these cities,
and now those were those the animalyts on those convoys,
and it's a lot of things that are in there.
They're a're running out, so they can't even feed their soldiers.
Every day you see these stories of the Russian tanks
being blown up and the farmers taking them and they're
abandoning their troops. It is it is mind boggling to me.
(09:49):
That they haven't thought any of this through. So again,
and the Ukrainians live to survive one day at a time.
Right now, if if they can can continue to take
the pounding and they fight this to a stance, the
they end up winning. That's exactly where I was going
to go, Say, the major city's fall and Zelinski either
heads out of town or is killed or what have you.
(10:09):
What is the Russian occupation of Ukraine look like in
terms of numbers of forces, the cost, etcetera. Yeah, not
very long. You thought Afghanistan was bad, and you thought
some of those other things were bad. And again, given
the fact that they won't be able to secure the border,
that the guerrilla math would mean let's say twenty million
men remaining in Ukraine, because you know, the women are
(10:30):
out in children around, a lot of people are out,
let's say so, so the guerrilla math is anywhere from
one to two million soldiers that the Russians would need
inside inside of Ukraine only in order to try to
pacify that they don't have. They don't have those kind
of resources. So so again there will be entire groups
formed in the western part of Ukraine that will come
in and launch massive attacks on Russian soldiers and there
(10:53):
won't be a Russian officer safe in any city in Ukraine.
They won't have a cup of tea thinking there'll be
poison that don't be able to turn a light switch
on the they're gonna get blow up. They won't be
able to turn the ignition on a car they're going
it's not going to get blown up. That's the kind
of level of inserviency that's going to take place because
the whole world is going to help with them, help
with them too as well. Yeah, I was gonna mention that.
So I saw a report last night and how there
(11:13):
are soldiers coming in from all over the world. Americans, Canadians, Australians,
Brits that have fought in wars. They're there, you know,
seasoned soldiers that are going to Ukraine to fight. Are
we gonna be able to continue to get weapons into
their hands throughout this Yeah, So again they're going to
try to interdict those supply convoys. I think they're going
to enter the border with them in hand, but they're
(11:36):
eventually gonna need to be resupplied as well. I'm not
necessarily a fan of that because we see that the
Russians are bringing in Syrians and whether or not that's
also a story we remains to be seen. The fact
that Syrian fighters are gonna come and help this again,
good luck bringing those guys into that country and not
being identified as Syrian fighters, and how the people will
react to that as well. Um So, this is just
(11:58):
becoming a mess, and it's be the Russians just unable
on any level to control it, and it's gotten, it
gets more out of hand for them every day, and
it's and it's completely outside of their kind of space
that they thought they were going to be in this now.
They thought, but this point this would be over and
done controlled and they'd be honest to the next thing. Uh,
And they're now completely in a situation where I don't
(12:19):
I don't see the offer for them right now. Great analysis,
Mike Lions. We can't properly express our appreciation. Great stuff.
Thank you, gi me yep. Absolutely, I absolutely love how
Mike does not give a single crap about being in
the mainstream or going with anybody's flow or anything. He
just calls it as the season. We got to discuss
(12:39):
some of that. Holy cow, I never thought we'd have
a conversation like that text is FO five k f
TC
From the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio at the George Washington
Broadcast Center, Jack Armstrong and Joe Jetty Armstrong and Jetty Show.
I think it deserves serious consideration. I think we need
to look at the gamut of options that are out
there for us. We need to calculate the risk and
be smart about it. I think you have to at
(00:23):
that point consider a note fly zone. I think is
a pretty logical next step. But I'll give you a
halfway house. That would be going back to the idea
of getting fighters in the hands of the Ukrainians, and
I get all the puts and takes of that. You
want Ukraine to do the note they would basically be
the ones to do it, not NATO. Is that is
that the goal on this is so that's Admiral James
(00:46):
Stravitis who is on WELSO with a former ambassador and
they both were for a no fly zone and the
admirals take I saw him on MSNBC today he said,
might take from looking at the talk shows over the
weekend and and statements out of the White Houses that
everything is now on the table. So, as I was
saying last week, I feel like at least the the mood,
(01:11):
the weight of the conversation is moving toward a no
fly zone. Mike Lions did tweet out yesterday it would
invite even a small nuclear response, possibly on the homeland
from Russia, which is a big deal. Hello. Well, speaking
of Mike Clions, military analyst of my clients, West Point graduate,
(01:31):
served with various American military here. He organizations both on
the home front and in Europe and in uh Iraq
through his career. Joins US. Now, Mike Lions, how are you,
sir guys? It's to make amazing to me if you know.
I don't want to go against the fourth star general obviously,
but the fourth star making that kind of comment is
almost irresponsible in terms of what all the nuance that
(01:52):
has to go in. Did he kind of then say, oh,
it's because the Ukraines are going to do the new
flight zone. Do you think they would do that now
if they could twenty nine nig airplanes and not changing
the calculus on that. I'm just surprised that we're there
that's being floated politically still on any level here, that
is completely off the table unless we want to risk
having an attack on our homeland, our attack in a
(02:14):
European city or something, because that's really what it would
lead to. Well, so I was a little concerned over
the weekend. UM, modern journalism being what it is in
the twenty four hour news cycle and everything like that.
Is this a bad idea that we're nailing so many
things down? Um? And maybe all this talk of the
no flight his own is just to have it out there.
So Putin thinks that it's possibly on the table because
(02:36):
this constantly taking everything, a bunch of things off the
table to satisfy Chuck tadd and meet the presser whoever,
I'm not any good, right, And that's there's an argument
to that, But I don't think he is of that ilk.
He has his own agenda and doesn't necessarily look at
what's he sees what's done and not what we're doing
as opposed to what we're not doing. I understand how
(02:59):
that you could dissuaded by that, But that's not the
kind of enemy we're dealing with. That. That's again we're
projecting our values on our own way and trying to
psychoanalyze our behavior. You're right, the administration is putting all
these things that are out there that we're not doing
but the bottom line is we aren't doing them. We're
not going to do them, and so so it's fine.
And in some ways he knows that that he random
and Putin does control this whole thing because he's the
(03:21):
one who invaded. When I hear Mitt Romney say things
like we've gotta, you know, turn the tide on him
and we've gotta get back in control. No no, no, no,
there's no us controlling. This is his war. This is
this regional conflict that exists there. You want to insert
yourself in it, you want to go to the war
with the nuclear power, then then let's have that conversation
and see what that leads us to. So again, this
is not about trying to gain some kind of upper
(03:43):
hand with him. We're not in this conflict. We really aren't.
Other than supporting Ukraine, like we are pouring ammunition and
pouring supplies and that's really all we can do. And
you your tweet was, so you think Putin would actually
strike the United States with a nuclear weapon, And I
think it's possible. I think that we have to consider it.
(04:03):
I mean, and it's not it's not going to be
something that's going to come from the ural mountains, it's
going to travel across space. You know, we're gonna have
time to think about it. Where he's gonna take a submarine,
he's gonna get it close to he's going to get
close to our shores. He's gonna launch a weapon. He's
gonna launch something that could hit our our homeland. I
don't see. I don't see if if we decide to
put in an off fly zone and take a Patriot
(04:25):
missile and fire it from Poland, fire from a NATO
country and it chases down a MiG SOVIETNIG plane over
Russia and and kill the Russian pilot over Russia, I
don't see how he's not responding. I don't see. I
don't see what is what he's got to respond. I
don't totally crap. This is a conversation. Well, indeed it is.
And and you know, Mike, these are extremely difficult questions
(04:48):
and only hindsight is in these matters. But if if
we are to preclude, to eliminate any action that might
provoke putin to do of things you've said, let's bring
us a conversation, all right, what if there is an
accidental strike in Poland? What if he uh you know, Yeah,
there are, there are a number of what ifs. At
(05:10):
some point, I think we need to be willing to
do things that might provoke a horrific, cataclysmic reaction or
we're paralyzed. I'm not sure where that is or what
that is. I think he has to do that first. So,
for example, what happened over the weekend, the Interdictions strike
deep in western Ukraine. That was a huge risk for
them because they had to do that with pilots. They
(05:30):
don't have cruise missiles that have enough accuracy, believe it
or not, that can hit a target that could be
sixteen miles within a Polish border, within the NATO border.
So he put min at risk in order to do
that mission. Why he knew it was important, I'm suppose
he didn't do it before, but he knew that he
couldn't make a mistake on it either. He knew he
couldn't just fire a bunch of cruise missiles at it
and have him possibly miss and strike Poland, because then
(05:52):
then possibly then we could respond and do something. Because
because if we entered this battle conventionally, if we decided
to come in and we have eight and lined up
someplace and bet that convoy, for example, that forty mile
convoy in done in four hours. I mean it's molten
rubbish in four hours. That the balance of power gets
tipped so quickly back on the side of Ukraine that
(06:14):
the level of embarrassment that Vladimir Putin suffers is amazing.
So again he's cognizant of the fact that he doesn't
want to bring us in the red line. Everyone talks
about the red line, the red lines, the border. That's
the bottom line. There's no chemicals, there's no nuclear The
red line is the Ukraine board. As long as if
that's not violated, there's not much we can do, I think,
at least offensively in order to stop him. And then
(06:35):
of course, if we are, for instance, we take out
that convoy and he gets that on the news in Russia,
then all of a sudden, the public opinion swings towards
him as he gets to say he's at war with
the the evil United States. Right, So the hundred and
forty million people right now who are confused about what's
going on are no longer confused because now NATO has
attacked Russia, attacked the Motherland. They start the music up,
(06:57):
they start all those old videos up about the Great War.
Here we go. At the end of the day, Russia
has capacity. They do have things that they can do.
They have those nuclear weapons, they have they have a
lot of different capacity. Now their military has failed miserably,
no question about it. The fact that they know Ukraine
is not even close to being a peer competitor with them.
But the fact that they've had to standoff for now,
(07:18):
which is every day that goes by Ukraine actually gets stronger,
standoff gets more. I'm not gonna start to be worried
about stinger missiles that are inside there. Let's hope they'll
find their way back to shores. Hopefully I have some
accountability about those, because those weapons can find their way
outside of Ukraine into the hands of other people. So
there's a down side also of putting a lot of
(07:38):
this material into the Ukraine military and making sure that
they use it. Military analysts Mike Lions on the line, Mike,
I know your student not only of military strategy, but
society too. It is going to be difficult to contain
the passions of the Western world when the videos start
to emerge from say Mariopola or or or Kiev. When
it finally falls of literally starved children, and and it
(08:01):
scenes of horror and carnage and or maybe or maybe
Zelinsky on his knees somewhere. So again, and we need
to get him out of there. He's got to survive this.
I still think that the Israeli Prime Minister, when he
went there a few weeks ago, I think he whispered
in his ear said, look, it's not going to be
a good look if you assassinate a Jewish head of state.
We're not gonna look filing upon that um. And we
(08:23):
need to get the Chinese in the game. I know,
I think we're meeting with them this afternoon in Rome,
but basically sell them, you better get your tach dog
on a leash here, and you better figure this out
because we're gonna start sanctioning you. We've got to get tougher.
We have to show power in places like that. About
with the Chinese and other influences of Russia, I mean,
Russia asking to Chinese for military and logistical supplies? Is
(08:45):
that a serious request? And the Chinese are actually gonna
consider it, So again, that's they're not even a superpower anymore.
If that, If that is the case, so that's where
this is going to if we're gonna be in on this,
so does the Chinese, and the Chinese need to get
the Russians on the leash pretty quick. I was watching
David Martin on CBS News yesterday. He said, Russia in
the next couple of weeks is going to have to
(09:06):
resupply either people, are equipment or something. I mean, because
they didn't expect this to last that long. Does that
sound accurate to you, Yeah, there's no second echelon here. Normally,
Russian doctrine deploys in multiple waves, um and they have
different groups that come on and kind of passed through,
and but this wasn't the plan here. This was a
(09:28):
special operations group. So for example, they're eventually they're running
out of animal they running out of artillery in these cities,
and now those were those the animalyts on those convoys,
and it's a lot of things that are in there.
They're a're running out, so they can't even feed their soldiers.
Every day you see these stories of the Russian tanks
being blown up and the farmers taking them and they're
abandoning their troops. It is it is mind boggling to me.
(09:49):
That they haven't thought any of this through. So again,
and the Ukrainians live to survive one day at a time.
Right now, if if they can can continue to take
the pounding and they fight this to a stance, the
they end up winning. That's exactly where I was going
to go, Say, the major city's fall and Zelinski either
heads out of town or is killed or what have you.
(10:09):
What is the Russian occupation of Ukraine look like in
terms of numbers of forces, the cost, etcetera. Yeah, not
very long. You thought Afghanistan was bad, and you thought
some of those other things were bad. And again, given
the fact that they won't be able to secure the border,
that the guerrilla math would mean let's say twenty million
men remaining in Ukraine, because you know, the women are
(10:30):
out in children around, a lot of people are out,
let's say so, so the guerrilla math is anywhere from
one to two million soldiers that the Russians would need
inside inside of Ukraine only in order to try to
pacify that they don't have. They don't have those kind
of resources. So so again there will be entire groups
formed in the western part of Ukraine that will come
in and launch massive attacks on Russian soldiers and there
(10:53):
won't be a Russian officer safe in any city in Ukraine.
They won't have a cup of tea thinking there'll be
poison that don't be able to turn a light switch
on the they're gonna get blow up. They won't be
able to turn the ignition on a car they're going
it's not going to get blown up. That's the kind
of level of inserviency that's going to take place because
the whole world is going to help with them, help
with them too as well. Yeah, I was gonna mention that.
So I saw a report last night and how there
(11:13):
are soldiers coming in from all over the world. Americans, Canadians, Australians,
Brits that have fought in wars. They're there, you know,
seasoned soldiers that are going to Ukraine to fight. Are
we gonna be able to continue to get weapons into
their hands throughout this Yeah, So again they're going to
try to interdict those supply convoys. I think they're going
to enter the border with them in hand, but they're
(11:36):
eventually gonna need to be resupplied as well. I'm not
necessarily a fan of that because we see that the
Russians are bringing in Syrians and whether or not that's
also a story we remains to be seen. The fact
that Syrian fighters are gonna come and help this again,
good luck bringing those guys into that country and not
being identified as Syrian fighters, and how the people will
react to that as well. Um So, this is just
(11:58):
becoming a mess, and it's be the Russians just unable
on any level to control it, and it's gotten, it
gets more out of hand for them every day, and
it's and it's completely outside of their kind of space
that they thought they were going to be in this now.
They thought, but this point this would be over and
done controlled and they'd be honest to the next thing. Uh,
And they're now completely in a situation where I don't
(12:19):
I don't see the offer for them right now. Great analysis,
Mike Lions. We can't properly express our appreciation. Great stuff.
Thank you, gi me yep. Absolutely, I absolutely love how
Mike does not give a single crap about being in
the mainstream or going with anybody's flow or anything. He
just calls it as the season. We got to discuss
(12:39):
some of that. Holy cow, I never thought we'd have
a conversation like that text is FO five k f
TC
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