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March 21, 2022 14 mins

Military analyst Mike Lyons joins Armstrong & Getty to talk about the latest developments in Ukraine, including the possibility of Russia's use of a tactical nuclear weapon.

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Armstrong and Getty show. The potential for escalation is
still very powerful on the Russian side. I had a
conversation with a couple of European differmass this weekend. There
are real concerns that they use one and possibly two
tactical nuclear weapons in the course of the next couple
of weeks within Ukraine, specifically targeted at those military supply lies,

(00:24):
and part of the reason he'd be willing to go there.
According to The New York Times in their article yesterday,
some military institute that studies these sorts of things said,
we're at a bloody stalemate. He's rue his country is
ruined financially and it is not coming back as long
as he's the leader of it. Not a chance. So
he's backed into a corner. He is the wounded animal

(00:47):
in a corner. Let's discuss with Major Mike Lions, retired
from the United States Military, where he served with distinction.
Respected analyst for a number of broadcast and cable networks. Mike,
how are you, sir? Taken morning? Guys, great to be
back tour. I think, hey, before we get to the
question of tactical nukes, can you describe for us what
you see as the situation in Ukraine, I mean the

(01:10):
it seems to be an all out barbaric slaughter the
likes of which we haven't seen in many many generations,
have no question, and the Ukraine military has now resorted
to guerrilla tactics. Um. The days of maneuver are over.
The Russians are digging their tanks in and defensive positions,

(01:30):
what it's called the hasty defense. Um. The Ukraine military
is deploying small units of eight to ten individuals. They're
loaded with javelins and stingers and all kinds of things
and creating havoc in guerrilla warfare style. Um, it's completely
a stalemate on the ground. Conventionally, it just goes to
show you that, you know, the military is and extension
of foreign policy looking to accomplish aims that diplomacy couldn't.

(01:53):
But at this point it doesn't look like that's happening,
and so there's not much more I don't think the
military to do on the ground conventionally just happens what
comes from the air and what the strategic weapons are
going to do. And it's going to continue to be
a pounding situation right now. I think the Ukraine military
is going to go after artillery units, um, those local
units that can affect the situation, but they don't have

(02:14):
a lot of say in what comes from the sky.
And that's what I was gonna ask, is there anything
they can do about those missiles that come in and
take out the schools or apartment buildings or a mall
today in Keith? Is there any weapon that we can
give them or anything to do anything about that. So
they're trying. There's that's where those Essay three hundreds or
the Patriot missiles can do that. And and it's there

(02:38):
they're deploying the hypersonic missiles, which are much more difficult
for us to intercept them. But it's feels very difficult
to shoot a missile out of the sky. Um, it's
kind of hitting the bullet that's going very fast, and
those hypersonic missiles go expused out, So it's it's very
difficult to do that. Now, the question is it's they
have some Essay three hundreds there they have been deployed.
It's the reason why the airspace is contested over Ukraine. However,

(03:03):
I don't know how we're going to get more in
and those they just don't. You just can't roll them
across the border. And all those systems also come with
radar equipment and fire direction centers and crews, and they
have to be deployed as well. The worst possible thing
happens is if the Ukraine military gets some of this equipment,
like let's say the US Patriot missile battery for example,

(03:24):
and not sure how it goes, they could potentially shoot
a Ukraine aircraft out of the sky. So it is
um these are strategic, challenging, crew served weapons that are
just not easy to get into country right now. So
on the clip that we played just a little bit ago,
the idea of Putin using one to two tactical nukes

(03:44):
over the next couple of weeks. What the heck is
a tactical nuke? What would it do if he used one?
And what do you think the reaction of NATO or
the United States would be. So tactical nuke is defined
by delivery mechanism, and in this case it would be
likely artillery round um that is approximately anywhere from twenty

(04:04):
miles away and it has a low kiloton yieldage that
that doesn't replicate anything that we saw, for example in
Hiroshima or or or the like. But it could cause
enough damage where it um you know, it multiplies the
impact of a normal artillery battery, so uh. Plus it

(04:25):
leads radiation, It leads that there's a you know, the
cloud that goes with it. There, there's it is a
high bank for your buck type weapons system. We have
tactical nukes on our side as well. Um, we deploy
them as something I was in charge of when I
was in the military, um full time, and it they're
highly effective and they're used in most cases in the

(04:45):
defense to to kind of stop an enemy from coming
through something. Now to use them offensively is um something
that we don't we would do doctrinally. But if they're
going to do it, if all they'll do is cause
tremendous destruction, because any sing within you know, let's say
five square miles, six square miles, maybe even ten square
miles will be completely obliterated. Really, anything within ten square

(05:08):
miles would be completely obliterated. Wow. Well, it certainly seems
to us that Putin has shown zero hesitation to slaughter
civilian populations. Are we just being naive about the way
most warfare unfolds or is this particularly callous. I think
this is warfare, and this is just something we haven't
seen since World War Two because the world has been

(05:31):
peaceful since then and m and in some ways it's
still happening only on a regional scale. It's not we
don't see millions of people killed yet at this point,
I know, I'm trying to keep this in perspective, but
Russia is a country that lost twenty million people during
World War two, and and so we just we're not
used to it. We're not used to seeing it. And
then it's unfolding on television every night, it's unfolding in

(05:53):
TikTok videos, that's unfolding out there. Uh. And it's obviously
very personalized to a lot of us. But this is
the competive, the capabilities that these sides have have and
they can do but I don't. There's nothing, I'm not
sure still what we could do to stop it on
the other side right now as well. Um, we can't
find Latimer Prutin, we can't bomb him. That there's an

(06:14):
expression about you know, bombing for example. You can vombit,
you can do everything you want, but it's still at
some point you have to hold it and Russia is
not going to be able to proving to be holding
the ground in Ukraine that they currently have. So back
to the tactical nukes thing. The other question I had
was what do you think the reaction would be by
NATO if he if he crossed that line into using nukes.

(06:39):
I still don't think that's the red line. The red
line remains the border. The red lines the border if
if he decides so. I think he's concerned about by accident,
shooting a cruise missile over across the border into those
supply lines into Poland, into Romania. I think that is
the that's the red line. But inside of the sandbox
of Ukraine right now is as harsh as it sounds.

(07:00):
Um NATOS still will not respond because what what's the response?
There's no there's nothing we can do that will deter
him from doing that again, and it could also cause
him to fire that same nuclear weapon across the border.
Then then Dendom, what do you do if he decides
to go after Poland, decides to go after Romani with
a larger go to Warsaw. I mean, could you imagine

(07:21):
fire nuclear weapon at Warsaw. That's that's on the table. Yikes.
Major my clients on the line, Mike, my final question anyway. Uh,
and I realized this is a little outside your your
your field. But um, some are are encouraging President Biden
on his trip to Poland to just go ahead, go
next door, go see Vladimir Zelenski in Kiev announced an

(07:42):
advanced city. American president is going to be in Kiev.
How crazy an idea is? That? It's crazy. It's on
the it's a hundred on the crazy meter. I can't
even imagineer proposed that. I mean, I can't even we
please the risk that would go with that. It's just
not worth any potential reward. Um, you know, Joe Biden

(08:05):
is not the spring of the chickens to be in
a situation where something had to happen and he had
to move quickly. Let's say he's not doing it. So
I know that that's not a good idea. I don't know.
I you know, it's not He's not the right guy.
All the things are wrong. He's not the right guy.
That's a really dangerous place. We've got a really bad enemy.
You do the math on that, and you double underlining,

(08:25):
you say probability of success in that his zero. So
I think I saw that and I wasn't think Yeah.
I think one on the crazy meter pretty much summarized
your view, well, said Major Mike Clients. Mike, thank you
so much for the analysis. Let's talk again soon. Great, Gus,
thanks for so so. He's a military expert. That's what

(08:45):
he knows as well as anybody in America. That's why
we talked to him on the media public opinion question, though,
which is something I know more about. I was watching
MSNBC this morning. Joe Scarborough, who has the ear of
a lot of the Democratic Party in this country, said
there's no way Americans and Europeans put up with the

(09:10):
use of nukes on the European continent, and the politicians
would be pushed so hard to react to that, even
even if so even if militarily, As my clients said,
what are you gonna do? It's a bad idea, It's
not a red line, boy. I think public opinion wise, WHOA,
I think it would be huge. I could explain to
why it shouldn't be, but you know, at a certain

(09:31):
point that doesn't matter. It's nuclear energy is an energy source,
and those bombs are very, very different. The tactical nukes
we're talking about are very, very different from a major
nuclear weapon. Oh yeah, but how about the idea of
wiping out Imagine what those videos look like if it
completely obliterated ten square miles. What the hell would those
videos look like? Oh my god, And the public opinion

(09:54):
in the United States, I think would would run way
toward we need to do more. Imagine what it would
be in Europe that same journalists. You just heard Katie
Turo and I've heard David Ignatius to the Washington Post
talking about traveling around Europe. He said, you can't believe
the fever pitch of support for Ukraine there is in
Europe right now. Imagine if he uses a nuke. Well,

(10:15):
and I wonder what those echoes would be in Beijing
as well. As they're they're desperately and pathetically trying to
defend the indefensible, and we have some of those clips
and they'll just make you squirm in your seat. But
can you imagine if if it got even more horrific
and indefensible, what sort of recalculations might happen in Beijing?
There is I hope I never find out. I hope

(10:36):
we don't find out any of this stuff. But it
is not just you know, wild talk radio speculation. This
is absolutely on the table over the next couple of weeks.
The fact that Putin decides to use a tactical nuke,
Europe says, no, you're not. And you know, we we

(10:57):
don't make all the decisions in NATO. NATO decides we're
responding to this full on we're at war with Russia. Now,
you do not use nukes that close to NATO countries,
and yet we're at war with the biggest nuclear power
in the world. You know, you make a good point.
Radiation floats with the wind, so that is that, that

(11:17):
is the red line. You have now in effect attacked
Poland for instance, or Romania or wherever. People have said
previously are still say that the likelihood of this, you know,
spreading toward the United States, I think I think they're
being way too sanguine about the idea of a full
on US versus Russia war. I hope it doesn't happen
NATO versus Russia. Please. As an American, I'm mostly worried

(11:41):
about the the U s angle of UM. I think
I think if Putin uses a tactical nuke and I mean,
this is completely out of my high nand I don't
know what he's thinking is, but I gotta believe that
that's like at least a fifty fifty chance over the
next couple of weeks, given how backed into a corner
he is, what are his other options? Well, this one

(12:01):
wouldn't do him any good. I mean, in the long term,
it would do enormous harm. But that's the problem. None
of this is doing him any good. Bombing that mall
earlier today, killing who knows how many hundreds of people
didn't do him any good. None of this is doing
him any good. He's doomed. He might as well put
a gun in his mouth today. He is over. Can

(12:22):
we have a vote on that one? That proposal? I
love that idea. Well, how many you know this is
getting really really grim, I realized, But it's a grim topic.
How many times do you see the situation where it's
usually a guy you know, I'm taking you know, I'm
I'm I'm angry at the boss, I'm angry at the family,
whatever it is they're going with me before I put
the gun in my mouth. Happens all the time. Putin

(12:44):
might be that guy. He just it's gonna be nukes
on the world stage. Well, yep, Graham is Right's but
completely I think one a real possibility. God dang it,
these next couple of weeks are going to be dicey.
But like you said earlier, there's there's no there's no

(13:05):
letting him out of the corner. He can't back down
from the guy. No, But all you can do is,
to paraphrase Winston Churchill, is to face it and deal
with it quickly. Don't turn your back because you will
double the danger. Um. So wow, we'll watch that now.
On a more inspirational note, I don't know from David Beckham,

(13:26):
the giant soccer star. I understand he could bend it.
I wouldn't know him if he walked into the studio
and kicked me with his super powerful socker leg right
in the junk. But he did something incredibly beautiful this
past week. I want to tell you about, Okay, fantastic,
that's good stuff. I do need to talk about how
my kid uh did in that kid way. He was

(13:47):
pretty damaging to me, you know. And then the way
that kids are super honest, Oh no, not honest, too honest.
Sometimes you got that for a bunch of other stuff,
and you can text us any thoughts on that conversation
four nine five k f tc Barn strong and yetty
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