The Dividend Cafe

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David Bahnsen delivers a quick Monday Dividend Cafe update from Chicago after travel disruptions, covering a strong market day led by communication services and technology while energy fell on a nearly 5% drop in oil; he notes the S&P 500 is near an all-time high even as market breadth has deteriorated sharply. He discusses rising margin debt and how its use has shifted toward non-purpo...

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David Bahnsen discusses the Fed’s quarter-point rate hike, arguing it was largely “performative” because markets had already tightened financial conditions and the Fed is now following rather than leading. He notes the fed funds futures market implies an 87% chance of another hike this year and reviews the political speculation around Chairman Kevin Warsh and President Tru...

Brian Szytel reports a pre-close market rebound from Newport Beach on Thursday, September 17, with the Dow up over 300 points, the S&P up over 1%, the Nasdaq up about 1.5%, and the 10-year yield falling to 4.95% as the curve flattens; oil prices eased and recent sector rotation briefly reversed as tech regained bids and equal-weight indexes underperformed cap-weighted. On the economic calendar, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Inde...

Brian Szytel recaps a volatile Fed day in which the FOMC unanimously raised rates 25 basis points, moving the range from 3.50–3.75 to 3.75–4.00, a move largely priced in. He notes dot plots implying one more hike before year-end (around 4.00–4.25), with market reaction reflecting short-term yields up slightly, long-term yields down slightly, and the 10-year unchanged near 5.01. Markets sold off (Dow ~-740, S&P...

Brian Szytel reviews a down market day driven by oil staying above $100 (Brent 108, WTI 105), ongoing Middle East tensions, and the 10-year Treasury closing near 5%, noting equities are only a few percent off highs. Using an S&P 500 forward earnings estimate of about $406/share next year, he argues a 5% pullback implies ~17.5x forward earnings and a 10% drawdown ~16.6x—normal moves that would still look reasonable given e...

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David Bahnsen hosts the Monday Dividend Cafe from the Newport Beach studio, recaps the show’s weekly content cadence, and reviews a relatively calm market day after a volatile weekend. Nasdaq and S&P finished down about 0.5% with semiconductors down 5.6%, tied to a weekend letter from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei urging major AI labs to slow development and seek regulation, with sup...

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On September 11, 2026, David Bahnsen marks the 25th anniversary of 9/11 with reflections as an investor, an American, and a person, focusing mainly on market lessons. He notes the S&P 500 was already down about 30% from its 2000 high before 9/11 amid falling earnings and a valuation re-rating, then reviews how markets closed for four days and fell sharply upon reopening, with about $1.5...

Brian Szytel reports another broad market decline (Dow -316, S&P 500 -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.7%) alongside a sharp oil rally (WTI ~+7% to $102; Brent $107), with oil up about 20% over the past week and a half amid Middle East tensions and threats to key Red Sea chokepoints including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Markets are focused on CPI ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, with discussion of a roughly 70% chance of a rate hike and p...

Brian Szytel reports a third straight market decline (Dow -405, S&P -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.7%) alongside falling bond prices and a 10-year yield up 5 bps to 4.84%, noting Treasury talk of increasing long-bond buybacks to $6B is too small versus ~$5.5T of long debt and was met by higher yields. He walks through a hypothetical of refinancing all long-term debt with T-bills, which could flatten the curve but would push short rates up, r...

Brian Szytel reviews a down day in markets after Labor Day, noting the Dow fell 628 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also declined, though the Dow remains up over 10% year-to-date. Oil prices rose (WTI near $93.6, Brent near $98) amid heightened US-Iran/Middle East tensions, lifting inflation expectations and interest rates and raising concern about energy as a consumption “tax.” He highlights NFIB small business...

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This special edition of The Dividend Cafe argues that the key issue investors are missing in the AI story is not AI’s usefulness but whether massive AI infrastructure spending will earn an adequate return on invested capital. The episode highlights how major tech firms are raising unprecedented debt and equity—despite strong earnings—because free cash flow is falling or tu...

Brian Szytel recaps a strong Thursday rally in risk assets after a modestly positive prior session, citing improved market breadth, dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller, slightly lower rates, and reduced September hike odds from 68% to 50/50 amid a split committee, easing inflation, and a normalizing labor market; he also notes political sensitivity ahead of November midterms. The Dow rose 624 points, the S&P 500 gained 1%,...

Brian Szytel recaps a modest market rebound after three down equity sessions, with weak internals and low volume as investors await Friday’s non-farm payrolls and next week’s CPI. The Dow rose 295 points, the S&P 500 gained 35 points (nearly 0.5%), and the Nasdaq added about 0.4%; rates were largely unchanged with the 10-year near 4.78, oil held around $90 WTI, and the yield curve remained steeper than recent period...

Brian Szytel recaps a down market day driven by heightened Iran-U.S. tensions, higher oil prices (WTI up 5.9% near $90; Brent near $95), and rising interest rates (10-year around 4.79%), with the Dow down 419 points, S&P 500 down 0.7%, and Nasdaq down 1% as long-duration assets weakened. Economic data was slightly below forecasts but still constructive, including 7.2 million job openings and an ISM manufacturing PMI of 54.6 (ei...

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David Bahnsen recaps Monday market action (Dow -374, S&P -0.33%, Nasdaq -0.12%; 10-year yield 4.76% up 3 bps), with energy leading on oil up 3% to about $86 and communication services lagging. He briefly shares midterm Senate race dynamics based on conversations with analysts, noting multiple paths for Democrats to win or lose the majority and warning against overconfidence in political...

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David Bahnsen hosts the final Friday Dividend Cafe of August as a part two discussion tied to his new book, "Profit for the Profit," outlining the philosophy and application of dividend growth investing and responding to common critiques. He argues investors should seek returns from the underlying profit-making enterprise rather than sentiment-driven momentum, and that dividend growth helps...

Brian Szytel recaps Thursday, August 27 markets, highlighting a major AI chip company’s better-than-expected earnings and sharply higher 2028 guidance that lifted its stock 10% and pushed all three major indices higher, led by the Nasdaq, while bonds were flat with the 10-year at 4.67% and WTI oil up about 2% near $83. Economic updates included better-than-expected initial jobless claims (203k vs. 208k) and a wider July goods...

Brian Szytel reports markets were essentially flat, while bonds moved as the 10-year yield rose 3 bps to 4.66; oil was slightly lower amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz deal talk. Economic data was mostly positive, but headline PCE was 0.3 vs 0.2 expected (3.7% YoY) while core PCE matched expectations at 0.2 (3.3% YoY), lifting Fed futures to a 40% chance of a September hike, which he views as largely a token 25 bps timing debate into Q...

Brian Szytel recaps a positive market day with the Dow up about 160 points, the S&P up roughly a third of a percent, and the Nasdaq up two-thirds as rates fell (10-year down seven basis points to 4.63) and oil dropped about 4.5%, aiding a tech and semiconductor/AI rotation. Economic data came in weaker, including slightly lower consumer confidence, softer new home sales, and a weaker Richmond Fed manufacturing index, reinforcin...