Cam Harvey: Through the Noise

Cam Harvey examines “p(Stag)” — the probability of stagflation — and what a high-inflation, low-growth environment could mean for investors and portfolio construction. Drawing on ongoing research into stagflation and asset management, Cam explains why inflation should not be analyzed in isolation. The economic growth environment matters: an upside inflation surprise during a recession can carry very differen...

Yes, we are experiencing prolonged war, persistent inflation, 18% of our taxes go to pay only the interest on 40t in debt, long-rates are breaking 5%... but why all the pessimism?

In my latest podcast, Through the Noise, with Robert Olinger, I dare to focus on the positives. 

1. Unemployment is low and there is no sign it is set to jump. The AI jobpocalypse is increasingly unlikely. New opportunities continue to outpace displace...

In this episode of *Through the Noise*, Cam Harvey and Robert Olinger examine the debate surrounding Federal Reserve interest rate policy and challenge the conventional narrative about rising Treasury yields.

Harvey explains why the Federal Reserve has much more influence over short-term interest rates than long-term rates—and why the market’s focus on a potential 25-basis-point move may distract from the bigger economic...

The average investor was excluded from the explosive upside when SpaceX was a private company. That upside was reaped by “accredited” investors The average investor is largely excluded from the IPO allotment - a few crumbs were thrown. Now, the average investor is faced with investing at $170. Academic studies show that the long-term returns of IPOs in excess of reasonable benchmarks like the S&P are modest - or non...

In this episode of Through the Noise, Cam Harvey unpacks one of finance's most consequential and least understood rules: who counts as a "qualified investor." In the US, the label has nothing to do with knowledge or credentials. It comes down to wealth. Cam traces the rule to the 1929 crash and the Securities Act of 1933, explains why its costly disclosure regime made sense then, and argues that it now locks ordinary people out of ...

A $1.75 trillion IPO is about to hit the market, and the mechanics behind it could leave retail investors holding the bag. In this episode of Through the Noise, Cam Harvey breaks down how SpaceX's Nasdaq debut triggers a wave of forced index-fund rebalancing, and why recently waived listing rules amplify the distortion. With only 4% of shares trading freely, a little-known Nasdaq provision counts SpaceX at three times that weight, ...

In this episode of Through the Noise, Cam Harvey unpacks his newly published Financial Analysts Journal paper, "Fundamental Growth," and applies its lessons to the most anticipated IPO of the year: SpaceX. Cam explains why traditional value and growth indices misclassify stocks, leaving investors exposed to expensive, low-growth names. He then turns to the mechanics of the SpaceX offering, a $1.75 trillion market cap with only 4 pe...

In this episode of Through the Noise, Cam Harvey returns to dive deeper into the rapidly expanding stablecoin landscape. Building on the previous discussion of Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC), Cam unpacks USD1 - the World Liberty Financial stablecoin connected to the Trump family. He explores why nearly every major financial institution is launching a stablecoin, the critical distinction between centralized and decentralized tokens...

While bitcoin and dogecoin grab headlines, a far less flashy corner of crypto has quietly overtaken Visa and Mastercard in annual transaction volume. In this episode of Through the Noise, Cam Harvey walks Robert Olinger through stablecoins - dollar-pegged tokens that settle in seconds for pennies instead of days for dollars. Cam unpacks how Circle's USDC actually works, why the model is structurally safer than fractional-reserve ba...

Why does your savings account earn essentially zero while money market funds pay nearly 4%? In this episode of Through the Noise, host Robert Ollinger sits down with Duke finance professor Cam Harvey to unpack the massive gap between bank deposit rates and market yields - and why giants like Chase pay just 0.01% APR on savings deposits. Harvey explains how large banks exploit market power to maximize their funding spread at the exp...

In this episode of Cam Harvey's Through the Noise, host Robert Olinger sits down with finance professor Cam Harvey to examine whether truly safe assets still exist in today's turbulent global economy. With US debt at $39 trillion and geopolitical uncertainty rising, institutional investors are rethinking their allocations. Harvey unpacks the real story behind China's shifting Treasury holdings, explains why gold now exceeds Treasur...

Is America's national debt a slow-moving crisis hiding in plain sight? In this episode of Through the Noise, Duke finance professor Campbell Harvey breaks down why the U.S. debt is far larger than headlines suggest - closer to $39 trillion once Social Security obligations are counted - and why politicians have little incentive to act before 2033, when the Social Security Trust runs dry. Harvey unpacks Ferguson's Law, the Triffin di...

Cam Harvey reveals why AI is just one piece of a much larger puzzle. In this episode, he outlines four simultaneous technological disruptions — artificial intelligence, quantum computing, decentralized technologies, and multiomics — arguing that nothing in history compares to having all four converge at once. Harvey explains why AI productivity gains are imminent in 2026, how quantum computing will solve optimization pr...

The latest CFO Survey, directed by The Fuqua School of Business in partnership with the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta, suggests AI won't meaningfully shrink payrolls. In this episode, Professor Harvey argues that CEOs and CFOs are dramatically underestimating AI's reach. 

The real disruption isn't replacing clerks; it's AI rewriting code for security and speed, redesigning websites and apps, drafting and reviewi...

What if working fewer hours coincided with stronger economic growth?

New labor data reveals a puzzling trend: employment is being revised downward even as the economy keeps growing. Professor Harvey explores whether AI is the variable that can help us understand that divergence.

The conversation moves beyond the familiar narrative of job displacement to examine a structural shift in how AI functions. As systems evolve from tools into...

The war in Iran is being treated by financial markets as a systemic event rather than a local conflict.

In this episode, Professor Harvey outlines a framework for understanding that distinction. He distinguishes between geographically contained wars and those that intersect with critical nodes of the global economy. Iran sits at the center of energy transit routes, regional trade networks, and broader strategic relationships, making...

Geopolitical events test how quickly and efficiently markets incorporate risk. When news of military action in Iran broke outside traditional trading hours, investors responded immediately in alternative venues.

This episode examines three economic linkages. First, the role of gold as a safe-haven asset and how 24/7 trading in tokenized gold provides real-time price discovery when conventional markets are closed. Second, the strateg...

Tariffs are typically recognized as a tax. But that framing assumes the only objective is efficiency.

Since China’s entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001, the balance of global manufacturing power has shifted dramatically. Where the United States once dominated, it now depends on foreign supply in strategically important sectors. In an era of supply chain fragility and strategic uncertainty, industrial capacity is no...