The Event Horizon Podcast
A podcast about the nascent prediction markets industry, including news, analysis and legal insights at Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt and beyond. Produced and hosted by Dustin Gouker. nexteventhorizon.substack.com
Episodes
Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I break down the week’s news from NEXTPredict in New York City.
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We all know that prediction market behavior can be used a signal for real-world events, and sometimes insider trading. I spoke with Dan Zimmermann, Chief Intelligence Officer at BETINT, to talk about how his company is trying to surface that information in real time.
Plus the week in prediction markets news with Daniel O’Boyle of InGame.
Show notes:
-News
A market where you can trade about the past? As soon as I saw that, I had to talk to the CEO of Verifact!
Plus a look at recent developments in prediction markets with Daniel O’Boyle of InGame.
Show notes:
News
SCOTUS briefs and Seminoles sue DraftKings:
Seminoles Sue DraftKings; NFL, AGA File SCOTUS Briefs
Verifact Markets
Press release: Verifact Markets launches the first trading platf...
Football season is underway, and prediction markets are booming. But what are the numbers about trading volume at Kalshi, Polymarket and beyond really telling us? Eric Ramsey of TickerTracker (and Event Horizon contributor) stops by to break it down.
Plus a look at recent developments in prediction markets with Daniel O’Boyle of InGame.
Show notes:
Vs. FanDuel and DraftKings valuations
Leif Abraham, a co-founder and co-CEO of Public.com, came on the show to talk about the company’s launch of prediction markets via Kalshi.
From the press release:
Public, the world's first agentic brokerage, today announced the launch of AI Agents for Prediction Markets, enabling members to trade on events that can shape financial markets and connect them with the rest of their portfolio. People can trade events directly or hav...
I spoke with Will Brooke, the co-founder of the startup Herisson, about the future of hedging and insurance via prediction markets.
From the company’s website:
“We’re building Herisson because the tools that enable the world’s largest companies to hedge against one-off, event-driven risk should be accessible to companies of all sizes.”
And as always, Daniel O’Boyle of InGame is here to break down al...
Kalshi Head of Enforcement Robert DeNault joined me to talk about how investigations and enforcement work in prediction markets.
Danieli O’Boyle of InGame returns to break down all the latest news in prediction markets, including a deluge of advertising deals.
Show notes:
Kalshi on recent enforcement actions
Ben Horney of Front Office Sports stopped by to talk about recent developments in prediction markets. And Matt Restivo — SVP of Sports Data Services at Grandstand — chatted about data in PMs and the Optic Odds product.
Show notes:
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get ...
The Ninth Circuit delivered bad news to Kalshi on Friday, as the prediction market company lost its appeal to Nevada. Where does the legal battle for prediction markets go from here? The US Supreme Court is definitely in play.
Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I break down that news and everything else that happened last week in prediction markets.
Show notes and more reporting/context on the decision:
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission got a bunch of important people in prediction markets together for a meeting in Washington, DC. Did we learn anything? Why were people yelling at each other? What happens next? Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I break down that meeting, and all the recent news in prediction markets.
Show notes:
A Republican problem for prediction markets?
This is a public...
The Brookings Institution’s Aaron Klein stopped by to talk about all things prediction markets (starts at the 47-minute mark). He is a senior fellow at Brookings’ Center on Regulation and Markets and worked on the Dodd-Frank Act.
Klein has led a pair of events about prediction markets hosted by Brookings:
Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I also break down all the recent news in prediction markets, including a lot of new...
There are endless stories and hot takes about people betting on wildfires…even though no one is actually offering markets on fires. And there are lots of people yelling about betting on drug trials. What exactly is going on? Daniel O’Boyle of InGame breaks that down and all the recent news in prediction markets.
To wit, prediction markets on drug trials made NPR’s All Things Considered:
It was a busy week in court for prediction markets, from a big lawsuit from the New York attorney general to a win for Kalshi in Minnesota. Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and Dustin Gouker break down all the important news on the legal front and beyond in this week’s Event Horizon podcast.
Show notes:
Legal stuff, from InGame:
New York Sues Kalshi In State Court, Asks For $36 Billion Fine
I’ll be at NEXTPredict in October; a lot of big names and smart people from the prediction markets industry will be there. Get your tickets now for 15% off using this link and promo code CLOSINGLINE15.
We started the podcast just talking about how popular betting on LeBron James’ next team had become at Kalshi and other prediction markets. And then as Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I were wrapping up the pod, he anno...
Unfortunately, we recorded the podcast before all hell broke loose with the Trump teleprompter operator story. But we did talk about betting on flight cancellations, which Kalshi apparently decided to pause sometime after we recorded the podcast.
But it’s still a good chat between me and Daniel O’Boyle of InGame on all the news of the week in prediction markets. I guess that will teach us to record on Fridays instead of ...
Did you know you can bet on Kalshi on how many Spotify streams artists will get? Well, of course you can, because you can bet on almost anything on Kalshi. But what happens when someone tries to manipulate the streaming metrics? We found that out last week! Daniel O’Boyle of InGame helps break down the latest nonsense.
First, this at The Event Horizonhttps://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/how-artificial-spotify-streams-broke-...
Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I did an “emergency” podcast today to deal with all of the news that dropped on Friday morning. That includes a deal between Kalshi and FIFA…or rather Kalshi and ADI Predictstreet, apparently?
Kalshi and ADI Predictstreet Announce Strategic Partnership to Expand Global Prediction Market Footprint during World Cup™ and Beyond (press release): ADI Predictstreet, the Official Predic...
Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I break down recent news in prediction markets, including Kalshi nearing $9 billion in weekly volume, new exchanges getting a green light, and a bad story for Polymarket.
Kalshi volume (paywall at The Closing Line)
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.su...
Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I are still trying to process that the prediction markets news cycle now includes George Santos, somehow. We break down all the recent news in in the industry.
Plus I talk with Kindbridge Behavioral Health CEO Daniel Umfleet about prediction markets, addiction, and treatment.
News recap and analysis at the start; Interview with Kindbridge CEO at 31:13.
George Santos, lol
The Polymarket-Google fiasco:
https://www.ingame.com/google-engineer-polymarket-insider-trading/
https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/the-polymarket-google-case-and-insider-trading
Trump talks prediction markets
https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/trump-some-prediction-market-opponents-are-scum
Here come new exchanges:
DraftKings... https://www.ingame.com/draftkings-self-certifies-first-contracts/
Rothera from Robinhood... https://...
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