本文评估了习近平的权力结构，指出其制度性权力高度集中，依靠“总 书记 + 军委主席”体制、反腐整风、意识形态重建和军队绝对效忠，实现了党内空前的集权局面。但文章也强调，习近平的非制度性权威严重不足，既无毛的建国之功，也无邓的改革之绩，缺乏政治“事功”的支撑，导致党内和社会对其多是“畏权而不服德”。习在意识形态和制度上试图弥补此弱点，却因政策争议和缺乏接班安排，令政权稳定性面临隐患。尤其在经济下行、中美对抗、台湾问题等多重挑战下，其权力与权威之间的失衡将成为未来统治风险的关键隐患。
点击下载全文或《中国民主季刊》2025年第三季完整版：https://chinademocrats.org/?p=5369
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