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因为 1989 年天安门屠杀,美国为首的一些西方民主国家曾制裁中国,但不久后,改变了立场,转而奉行一种名为“接触”的政策,欢迎和帮助中国融入国际体系、发展经济。这种政策包含了复杂的利益计算,但也有基于普世价值的辩护,因为支持这一政策的人说,如果中国融入国际体系、经济获得发展,将有助于它在政治上变得开放,走上民主化的道路。

但是,中国在经历了经济高速增长之后,不仅国内政治没有变得更加开放,相反,过去 10 多年中,走上了一条向后倒退的道路。同时,伴随着中国实力的快速增长,北京对外也变得强硬、自负,西方感受到了中国作为一个崛起的专制大国的威胁。在这种情况下,美国及其一些西方盟国重新评估了过去的政策,转向了一种相对强硬的、被称为“去风险”的新政策。

这种新的政策已经开始施加一些重要的限制,包括限制某些尖端技术流入中国。对中国的限制会给中国的进一步发展增加困难,因而不利于北京政权的“绩效合法性”,但是同时也可以被北京用来强化民族主义、煽动与西方的对抗。

如何评估西方这种新的、比过去强硬的政策对于中国民主机会的影响,会更有利于还是更不利于中国走上民主化之路?这种新的对华政策在多大程度上修正了过去的对华接触政策, 美国及其盟国在多大程度上会在这种转变上保持一致立场?促进中国民主化是否西方接触政策的重要目标,如何评估它在这方面的成效?

就上述问题,《中国民主季刊》邀请黎安友(Andrew J. Nathan)、索菲·理查森 (Sophie Richardson)、白夏(Jean-Philippe Béja)、大卫 • 麦克科特 (David McCourt)、王亚秋、上官乱等六位专家与评论人士,发表了以下评论。

点击下载全文或《中国民主季刊》2025年第一季杂志完整版:https://chinademocrats.org/?p=4588

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