Ceasefires and Stalemates: Israel, Lebanon, and the Border Battles in the Middle East

The Gaza war has triggered widespread geopolitical repercussions, placing Lebanon at a critical juncture. Regional instability has intensified, exacerbating tensions between Hezbollah and Israel despite a recently brokered ceasefire. Israel’s continued military presence in southern Lebanon raises urgent questions about sovereignty, security, and the viability of peace agreements in this volatile region.

Lebanon faces mounting challenges, including economic collapse, public unrest, and increased militarization along its southern border. Hezbollah’s response to the Gaza conflict, intertwined with its ties to Iran, complicates Lebanon’s internal dynamics and its role within Middle Eastern geopolitics. Meanwhile, the international community grapples with balancing Lebanon’s fragile stability against the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, often prioritizing strategic interests over humanitarian needs.

This episode examines the historical, political, and humanitarian dimensions of these issues. What is Lebanon’s path forward amidst regional and domestic pressures? How does Hezbollah influence this complex landscape, and what role can international actors play in fostering peace? Joining us to unravel these questions are this week's special guests.

Jon Allen is a distinguished Canadian diplomat with over four decades of experience in international affairs. A graduate of the University of Western Ontario (LL.B.) and the London School of Economics (LL.M. in International Law), Mr. Allen has held key postings worldwide, including Mexico City, New Delhi, and Washington, D.C., where he served as Minister of Political Affairs. From 2006 to 2010, he was Canada’s Ambassador to Israel, gaining deep insight into the region’s geopolitics. Currently, Mr. Allen is a Senior Fellow at the Munk School of Global Affairs, a Distinguished Fellow of the Canadian International Council, and Chair of Rozana Canada, promoting Israeli-Palestinian healthcare collaboration. He previously appeared on Beyond the Headlines in the 2023/24 season to discuss insurgency dynamics in the Middle East. 

Eugene Rogan is a renowned historian specializing in the modern Middle East and North Africa. He serves as Professor of Modern Middle Eastern History at the University of Oxford and is a Fellow at St. Antony’s College. A Columbia University economics graduate, Dr. Rogan earned his master’s and doctorate in Middle Eastern Studies from Harvard University. Professor Rogan’s acclaimed works include The Arabs: A History, The Fall of the Ottomans: The Great War in the Middle East, and the forthcoming The Damascus Events: The 1860 Massacre and the Destruction of the Old Ottoman World. His expertise spans the Arab-Israeli conflict, Ottoman history, and the First World War’s impact on the region, offering valuable historical context to contemporary events. We are honored to have him join us today.

Production Note The segment featuring Jon Allen was recorded on November 11, 2024, before key developments in the Israel-Lebanon conflict. A ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel was reached in late November 2024; however, Israeli forces remain in southern Lebanon, raising ongoing concerns. These updates are addressed in the second segment with Professor Eugene Rogan, recorded on January 11, 2025, to reflect the latest developments.

Produced by: Julia Brahy