Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

If this keeps up, we might all long to have the machines take over.

In this episode, the Inflation Guy discusses the victory of a socialist candidate in the New York City mayoral primary this week - and, even if we would like to hope that he has no chance of winning in the general election...he does. Ergo, we should probably think a little bit about what socialism means for inflation. 

Really, nothing about socialism is great. And ...

Where is the effect of the tariffs? Where is the effect from "Most Favored Nation?" What is going on with this month's CPI report? The Inflation Guy addresses these questions, and more. And on top of that, apologizes! It's a don't-miss episode!

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/06/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-may-2025/ )

Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflat...

Sure, there's no question that screaming about how tariffs are higher than they've been since the Great Depression, or that shelves are going to be empty of product by June, or how "I won't be able to buy my son the GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip", attracts more listeners. But the reality is that the whole tariff hullabaloo is likely overwrought. Certainly, even though tariffs on Canada and Mexico were in place for some time prior to...

For a while, we are going to be returning periodically to the question of how the economy, markets, and inflation respond to economic policy volatility. In this episode, the Inflation Guy talks about some mildly disturbing signs that manufacturing leadership may not be as adaptable as it once was, and as he had previously assumed. And that's all bad news, both from an economic fragility standpoint (it could mean the garden-variety ...

Today's podcast is a very important one. Coming 298 days after episode 113 (this may be a future trivia answer, but probably not), in this episode the Inflation Guy announces the launch of a project of great importance and significance to those who worry about inflation and are concerned about defending their money.

Please read the important disclaimer below.

NOTES

USDi Partners website: https://usdicoin.com/

Press Release Noting L...

Welcome to CPI Day - this one, in the midst of a head-spinning market turmoil. This moves the CPI report back a little bit in terms of its importance, but the underlying inflation pressures and the effect on prices of tariffs, going forward, are a big part of the reason for the market turmoil.

Uncertainty implies lower prices for risky assets, and we are seeing that. It also has implications for inflation itself, through velocity,...

Tomorrow, April 2nd, is 'Reciprocal Tariff Day,' when the US will impose tariffs designed to equalize (how well, no one knows) the tariffs faced by foreign imports to the US with the tariffs faced by US exports to other countries. From everything you read, this is going to be a calamity. But the Inflation Guy has a different take, and it comes from an understanding of how manufacturing actually works - with job 1 always being Make ...

The pricing and distribution of pharmaceuticals is one of the most opaque major pricing systems in the United States. There are oligopolies at the wholesaler level and at the Pharmacy Benefits Manager (PBM) level, which completely control consumer-level pricing. The Inflation Guy explains this system, which has attracted the ire of President Trump in the past since Americans also pay much higher prices for medications than consumer...

It's time for the monthly CPI report, and this one seems apiece with other economic happenings recently: December and January were all over the place, but in February the inflation numbers are settling back down. The problem is, they're settling in at too high a level, and it gets harder and harder to see how we are going to get inflation back to the Fed's target. Not that the Fed really cares very much, and the Inflation Guy expla...

We are moving too fast, with too many topics! The Inflation Guy hits on four different topics today before running out of time and deferring some until the next episode. Today, (a) Is the 'DOGE Dividend' inflationary? (b) How impactful are 25% tariffs on the price level? (And ironically, taxpayers might actually make money in real terms on the deal). (c) Are we going to get a recession, and what does that even mean these days? (d) ...

Today the Inflation Guy answers a listener's question, which is 'if the US were ever to have sustained 0% inflation, what would the effects be?' It is a simple question but it leads to some profound thoughts about what price stability is, and what it means...if anything.

Of course, you have to listen to the Inflation Guy's weekly gripe first, but you can fast forward through that part. (It makes him feel good so we leave it in.)

NO...

It's the monthly inflation report for January's CPI, and this one was surprising. It would have been alarming, except that we have been through five years of inflation unlike anything we had seen since the 1980s. So, we're jaded. The Inflation Guy walks through today's report and considers wildfires, tariffs, and most-favored-nation status. A tour de force!

NOTES

Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https:...

Today's episode is somewhat shorter than the norm, since last week's episode was a little longer than the norm. Today, the Inflation Guy notes that M2 money velocity declined very slightly in Q4, and points out a weird - but possibly important - effect that could have the perverse effect of dampening inflation slightly. (To be sure, the Inflation Guy thinks there are other, larger forces at play but this is an interesting one that ...

It seems every day these days we hear about another tariff being applied to a trading partner of the U.S. (or, more usually, being threatened). The usual media reaction to these threats are something along the lines of saying "Oh my sainted aunt. This sort of talk gives me the vapors" because it is so, so, so bad. Tariffs are archaic shibboleths that no truly modern economist would ever support.

Come to think of it, that sounds lik...

Today the Inflation Guy answers a reader question. What are the long-term effects of having 4% inflation compared with 2% inflation? Does that small increase in the inflation rate have any important ramifications?

Hooo yeah you betcha it does. The Inflation Guy goes through a number of them, and feels like he probably left some out in the process.

Along the way, he also had some choice remarks about why the Federal Reserve next wee...

Let's face it: there is nothing more exciting than the monthly consumer inflation report. Don't we all agree on that? Is there any day that we collectively brace the day with such enthusiasm as the day the CPI report comes out? Surely not.

However, this month...the December CPI...just isn't the story. The Inflation Guy today dutifully addresses the data, but more importantly focuses on how the data is surely going to be different g...

It's 2025, and the Inflation Guy - like inflation itself, actually - is not yet dead. After a one-month hiatus, he kicks off the new year with a quick review of the current state of affairs and then addresses the question of whether the catastrophic California wildfires will help push inflation higher. It isn't as if that is the most-important thing to think about, when it comes to those fires - but it is worth thinking about all o...

For more than a year now, the story about inflation and why inflation was almost certainly going to stay high (in the 'high 3s, low 4s' on median inflation, as the Inflation Guy has long held) was a story about the guaranteed rebound in money velocity. That has been an easy story and forecasting medium-term inflation has been consequently pretty easy.

That is changing.

Velocity has made a round trip to where it was prior to COVID. ...

This is one of the rare podcast episodes that you might consider listening to at 75% speed instead of 125%. Because the Inflation Guy is feeling feisty, and when he feels feisty he talks fast. And he's feisty because today (why today, of all days? No one knows) he is especially triggered by the bad economics going around that suggests that mass layoffs of Federal employees would be recessionary and very painful. Au contraire, says ...