Expected Own Goals

Expected Own Goals

Best friends Evan Davis (Equalizer) and Eric Morgan (Deadspin) love each other. But they love women’s soccer more. Join them as they break down the tactical and analytical sides of the women’s game, from the NWSL and FA WSL to the Champions League and the U.S. Women’s National Team, and so much more. Now the official WoSo partner of American Soccer Analysis! Subscribe to our free newsletter: xog.beehiiv.com Subscribe to our Patreon for exclusive content: patreon.com/xowngoals

Episodes

May 27, 2025 57 mins

Six games, 27 goals: 4.5 goals per game this weekend marks the second-highest per-game goal total over a single NWSL matchweek in league history. It's been nearly four years since a matchweek saw no clean sheets recorded. It was goals galore! 

The guys touch on Gotham's CONCACAF W Champions Cup victory in Mexico (00:43), then whip around the goalscoring bananza across five other NWSL matches (02:33), before digging into Angel City'...

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The numbers? Still Sticky! But before they dive back in, Eric and Evan briefly discuss the latest USWNT Roster and one very notable omission (hint: it rhymes Shmorbin Shmalbert). Then, the guys are joined once more by Kim McCauley of the Guardian to finish their review of the data, check their sometimes questionable priors (Utah), and call out a few of their own goals (again, Utah).

Teams featured in Part II:

Utah Royals (5:42)

Nor...

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May 20, 2025 59 mins

The numbers are sticky (or, at least, stickier)! Finally, we have a clearer picture of which teams are contenders and which teams still have some (or a lot of) work to do. The guys are joined by Kim McCauley of the Guardian to sort through the data, check their priors, and call out a few of their own goals.

Teams featured in Part I:

Chicago Stars (2:03)

Houston Dash (9:22)

Portland Thorns (17:36)

San Diego Wave (28:34)

Seattle Reig...

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May 13, 2025 59 mins

Believe it or not, the guys were already planning on featuring the Chicago Stars' 3-2 loss at home to the Washington Spirit as their game of the week, and then Lesley Ryder published her story on the state of the Stars. Much of what Stars GM Richard Feuz said that piece was embodied by Chicago, who put up their best attacking performance at home in nearly three years, but promise little for the future. The guys whip around the lea...

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May 6, 2025 60 mins

The top-4 only managed to grab a single combined point over the weekend. Does this mean last year's us-and-them table is a thing of the past? Maaaayyyyybe. The guys whip around the league to figure some of this out (2:56), and then close with the Portland Thorns' 1-0 win over the Orlando Pride at Providence Park (37:59). Barbra Banda was all alone, Coffey and Hina bossed proceedings, and Olivia Moultrie is locking in.  Join our Pa...

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April 29, 2025 53 mins

All games from this weekend are our featured game, because too much insanity occurred for one match to pull focus. The guys go through all of it, from Orlando's epic comeback to North Carolina's at-the-death victory to a foul-choked draw between Portland and Louisville, not to mention Gotham's beatdown of Washington, Chicago's whimper of a performance against San Diego, the kooky draw between Bay FC and Seattle, and the utter conte...

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The whiparound, like the weekend's NWSL action, doesn't exactly quicken the guys' pulses on today's episode (00:41). But there are many important things to address with the Washington Spirit's 1-0 road win against the Orlando Pride, not least of which is the handling of Ashley Hatch's concussion (10:48). This week's featured game takes us down to Kentucky, where the Wave pasted Racing 4-1. But what was going on beneath the surface?...

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Seven games, six road victories, four of them shutouts. It was a weird weekend in the NWSL, and the guys scan the ups and downs from all of the action (1:14). Then, they peruse Gotham's 3-1 home victory over the North Carolina Courage (23:01). Each club had a starting center back missing, but only one didn't play like it. Is Gotham the sleeping giant that has finally awoken? Has North Carolina reached the end of the road with Nahas...

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One for them, one for us. The USWNT beat Brazil fairly comfortably in Trinity Rodman's return to the U.S. lineup in front of over 32,000 in Los Angeles, while an incredibly green squad went down 2-1 to the Seleção in San Jose. The guys tackle Saturday's victory first (3:05) before noting that each friendly was a mirror image of each other from a tactical and personnel perspective (7:11). This leads into figuring out who might now b...

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More draws! With even fewer goals! The guys whip around the league to gawk at some less-than-stellar matches (1:40) before diving into this week's featured contest, Angel City's 2-1 defeat of the Seattle Reign at home. We preamble a bit (17:00), and then peel back what's been suprisingly effective about Angel City's attack (19:00), before trying to understand how Seattle could be even messier than we expected (31:40). We cap it off...

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March 25, 2025 57 mins

The top four all played each other this weekend, in a couple of tasty fixtures filled with drama and intrigue. After the whiparound of the league's fixtures, the guys get into the main events. (8:28) The Kansas City Current got the officiating calls to go their way and Temwa Chawinga tore the Washington Spirit's heart out at the last second. (26:52) The Orlando Pride didn't score once in open play but dispatched Gotham 2-0 in front...

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March 18, 2025 51 mins

One down, 25 to go! The first round of NWSL matches is in the books for 2025, and it was a morass of beatdowns and 1-1 draws. Who's up and who's down relative to our preseason rankings? The guys look at all seven games and figure out who has shifted since they made their initial picks. 

Join our Patreon for only $6/month (or $60/year) to get all of our exclusive bonus content! Art by Eli Elbogen Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance ...

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The Bats took flight across the regular season, but were felled in penalties to Washington in the NWSL playoffs. Then the rumors of behind-the-scenes discord kicked up. Then a dozen players departed. Amid all of this upheaval, do they still have the goods to be one of the best teams in the league? Jenna Tonelli of Sports Illustrated dropped by to pitch herself as Gotham's goalie, with Evan as the no. 9 in a pinch.  Join our Patreo...

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The Courage made a massive splash in getting Jaedyn Shaw in the winter. After Kerolin moved on, the club needed a creative artist to help unlock a moribund attack. But can she fit into the broader structure of head coach Sean Nahas's plans? Kim McCauley of the Guardian came on to separate the wheat from the chaff in the club with one of the strongest reputations in the NWSL.  Join our Patreon for only $6/month ($60/year) to get al...

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The Kansas City Current were the best team on paper last year. They rostered the league's MVP and producer of one of the greatest seasons in league history, Temwa Chawinga. But they fell to budding rivals Orlando Pride in the semifinal. Are they read to take the next step and win a trophy? Thom Bomb of Shea Butter FC and Shades of Blue walked the guys through the (few) roster changes the club made, and how they can improve upon las...

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Who is going to play for the Portland Thorns? With Sophia Wilson gone for the year, and Morgan Weaver on the bench for potentially all season, their attack feels thin. Their defense is getting a hard reboot, too. Portland may. have never had more questions around them than right now. Kim McCauley of the Guardian tries to find some silver lining in the dark clouds, with varying degrees of success. Join our Patreon for only $6/month...

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Bay FC made the playoffs in their first season, and are rolling out a solid lineup with some high-upside college signings this year. But an investigation into allegations of bullying and harassment by head coach Albertin Montoya—along with the resignation of scout Graeme Abel over an earlier such report before he joined the club—has changed the complexion of the entire organization. Anna Daccache of Everything Bay Goals tries to pa...

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The Chicago (Red) Stars squeaked into the playoffs on the backs of a completely new regime, from the owners to the GM to the head coach. Very little was done in the offseason, and with Mallory Swanson MIA, their 2025 playoff prospects seem remote. Lesley Ryder of Gal Pal Sports came on to find the gold in the silt, and how Chicago can still offer some joy to its fans this year.  Join our Patreon for only $6/month ($60/year) to get...

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RECORDED BEFORE THE SIGNING OF BIANCA ST-GEORGES & JANNI THOMSEN

Kieran returns to share his pitch to NWSL front offices about potential partnership opportunities with American Soccer Analysis! Then we dive into the ins and outs of the Utah Royals. They've brought in some very enticing players. Is it enough to make them playoff contenders? Will standouts like Ally Sentnor and Mandy McGlynn level up or regress? And how many ways...

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Angel City became the first club in NWSL history to be docked points for violations of the league's policies—namely, violations of the salary cap. They now have a new controlling owner, a new sporting director, and will have a new permanent head coach soon. Can the team on the field match the team off it? Michelle Chavez of the Sporting Tribune came on to hash it all out. (1:39) Then, the guys spoke to Angel City's new sporting dir...

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