Ventura County Real Estate: Skyrocketed Prices and Surprising Trends

In this episode of "On the Road with Paul Ward," Paul delves into the Ventura County Real Estate Market and its pricing trends over the past few years. He starts by presenting staggering statistics about the average cost of housing in Ventura County. Paul then discusses interest rates and compares the price per square foot of homes in Oxnard (Ventura County) versus Marina Del Rey (LA County). He offers insights into why people have been moving to Ventura County recently. Referencing an economic report from Cal Lutheran University and charts from an article in The VC Star, Paul provides data on GDP growth, the salary-to-rent ratio, and population growth. He also reveals where people are relocating when they leave Ventura County and shares his experiences about why many are moving to Ventura County from LA County. Lastly, Paul discusses the number of new homes built in Ventura County over the past year and how these factors are contributing to the persistently high housing prices in the area.

 

Watch the full episode HERE:

 

0:00 Introduction of topic: The Ventura County Real Estate Market and Pricing over the last few years

0:05 Paul gives us some staggering statistics about the average cost of housing in Ventura County

1:07 Paul discusses interest rates and compares the price per square foot of a home in Oxnard (Ventura County) vs. Marina Del Rey (LA County)

2:38 Some of Paul’s thoughts on why people moved to Ventura County during the last few years

4:23 Cal Lutheran University is referenced for the economic report for Ventura County and provides charts from an article in The VC Star for GDP Growth, The Salary to Rent Ratio and Population Growth

6:20 Find out where people are moving when they leave Ventura County

6:51 Based on his experience, Paul shares that people moving TO Ventura County are coming from LA County and shares his thoughts as to why

7:53 We learn about the number of new homes being built in Ventura County over the last year or so and how all these factors are contributing to the housing prices still being so high in Ventura County

9:19 A special thank you to our sponsor: Opus Escrow

 

Related Episodes: Construction Your Home Buying Path Appraisal Anomalies: Situations You Never Saw Coming

 

How to reach Paul: [e-mail] 805-479-5004 

 

Check out our featured listings as well as other properties for sale in the area: Homeandranchteam.com 

Have ideas for future episodes? We'd love to answer your questions - leave a comment! For any home buying or home selling needs in the Ventura County area of California, please reach out to [e-mail] or visit www.HomeAndRanchTeam.com A special THANK YOU to our sponsor! Farm Talk with Paul Ward would not be possible without the support of our sponsor Opus Escrow. Supporting our sponsor ensures Farm Talk can provide listeners with the best possible episodes.

Episode Transcript

(00:05):
Hey friends, it's Paul Ward here,
and I just wanted to share with yousome insights that I had on the local
Ventura County real estate market thatI thought you might find interesting.
Since COVID, prices havejumped dramatically,
the average price of a home inVentura County is now $900,000.

(00:26):
And rents start,
start at about $2,500 per monthunless you wanna rent a room from
somebody. You can save somemoney if you're renting a room,
but rents basically startat $2,500 per month.
Take a look at this graph thatwas put out by the local MLS,
and you'll see that the averageprice of a home this is for 2000

(00:49):
square feet or less average priceof a home in Ventura County,
2000 feet or less is six 50.
But what I find interesting is thatthis is actually higher than it was
in 2002 when interest rateswere about a third of what they
are. Now, you would think that withinterest rates now at 6.5% percent,

(01:11):
that prices would be lowerthan they were in 2002 when
interest rates were as low as 2.5%. So,
it's pretty surprising that homeprices have steadily risen with some,
you know, various dips, of course,
but are now higher than they were in2002 when interest rates were in the
twos. Now, interestrates in the mid sixes,

(01:33):
take a look at this chartshowing the average home price in
Oxnard, okay, this is for actuallyfor homes 2000 square feet or less.
Average price, $591 per square foot,
that's asking median price,
$558 per square foot.

(01:54):
And then on properties that haveclosed in the last six months,
average price per square foot is $536.
Median is $502.
Now compare that to a town in LA County,
Marina Del Rey. Okay, high rent district,
but also on the beach just like Oxnard.

(02:15):
This is for homes below 2000 square feet,
$873 per square foot.This is active properties,
$873 active average price per square foot,
median $840 per square foot. Interesting.
Compare that to Oxnard at median $558. So,
$300 more per squarefoot in Marina Del Rey.

(02:38):
As a realtor with many yearsof experience when Covid came,
there was a big rush to move and have
space between neighbors, right?
There was the fear of covid itselfand everybody wanted to spread out,
have no neighbors homeschooltheir kids have groceries

(02:59):
delivered. And so there was aflood of properties, or excuse me,
a flood of people wanting to move toVentura County out of Los Angeles County.
The second thing that I foundinteresting was the boss man said, Hey,
don't come to the office. Work fromhome, right? So, I could live anywhere.
People could live anywhere.

(03:19):
Why not move to Ventura County whereyou're gonna save $300 per square foot on
your purchase price?
And then the third thing was theincredibly low interest rates.
Everybody felt that they had to buybecause they were never gonna have that
opportunity again to purchase withinterest rates in the 2% range,
which of course is true, thatinterest rate is long gone.
And if you think about it,

(03:40):
Los Angeles County has about25% of the entire state's
population. If there's 40million people in California,
10 million people live in LA County,
and with prices being significantlylower in Ventura County than
LA County, and the boss mansaying, Hey, work from home,
where do those people wannago? They want to, they go,

(04:01):
they want to go to VenturaCounty. So that, in my opinion,
it partially explains the reasonfor prices not having dropped,
because in the LA County buyer's mind,
if they're moving to venture at county,
they're saving so much on their purchaseprice that the fact that interest rates
are so much higher reallydoesn't matter. Now,

(04:23):
every year or every couple years,
Cal Lutheran Universityputs out an economic report,
which I always find very interesting.
It talks about the local economyspecific to Ventura County,
where Cal Lutheran University is located.
And there's some interestingcharts in this year's report.
Little bit dated right now, butstill, you know, relevant. So,

(04:45):
GDP and Ventura Countyis essentially flat.
It's actually down for 2024.It's supposed to be negative 0.1.
Ventura County has a,
has a shrinking economy compared tothe United States, which is about,
which is expected to beabout 2% overall nationwide.

(05:05):
So Ventura County's economyis somewhat depressed when
compared to the nation.
Another interesting chartin here is apartment costs
continue to go up relative to salaries.So if you look at the yellow line,
rents are going up whilesalaries are stagnating.
And interesting also,

(05:26):
they're saying in this report thatwages in Ventura County are heavy in the
50,000 per year range.
$50,000 per year is kind ofa typical salary locally.
Only about 5% of the homes out there are
relatively affordable tofolks making $150,000 or,

(05:48):
or more. So there's a reallack of affordability.
Now of course, this leads to anotherbig factor is population growth,
or we could say here,locally population shrinkage.
So actually in 2024 and 2025,
Ventura County's populationis expected to shrink by

(06:12):
a little less than 1%,
but still expected toshrink because homes are not
affordable. And where are those folksmoving that are making between 50
1001 99, they're moving to Texas,they're moving to Tennessee,
they're moving to Arizona,they're moving to Nevada.
So with housing beingunaffordable and folks that are

(06:36):
just kind of starting out wantingto buy a home, start a family,
they're moving primarily out of stateas now some folks of course are staying,
but there are actually more peopleleaving that are here now than
are staying. And youknow, in my experience,
the people that are buying right noware Los Angeles County people. Okay?

(06:57):
They're coming up because intheir mind they're saving, right?
If I'm gonna spend $850 asquare foot in Marina del Rey
and I can buy in Oxnardfor $550 a square foot,
I'm saving, right?
Just talked to a gentleman last week whojust sold his house in Los Fli area of
Los Angeles 1.2 million,

(07:21):
and bought a house inCamarillo for 715,000 and
didn't blink, didn't batan eye because, you know,
he's saving half a milliondollars on his purchase price.
So he gave the sellerwhat he wanted. Again,
you would think with interest rates beingwhere they are right now compared to
Covid, that priceswould come down. But no,

(07:42):
because the LA buyer is moving up here.
The other interesting chartI found in the Cal Lutheran
report was about housing starts. Okay?
So what is the number of homesthat are being built compared
to the demand? Well,
last year there were about1500 housing permits issued.

(08:07):
To keep pace with demand,
they would need a minimumof 5,000 housing starts.
And really to bring the priceprices down in Ventura County,
you would be needing to buildabout 30,000 homes per year,
which I found to be a staggering number.
So check out the chartthat shows housing starts.

(08:27):
So nowhere near does thesupply meet the demand.
So we're gonna continue tohave a housing shortage.
Prices are going to continue tostay high in our region. Yes,
there might be a little bit of adip here and there which, you know,
but that's gonna be limited.
Any dip is really gonna benefit a verysmall percentage of the buying public.

(08:49):
And then of course, wheninterest rates do come down,
what will happen is thedemand will surge even more,
and we'll have more bidding wars.So there will be, you know, five,
10 offers on every property once
interest rates do drop. So anyway,just a little bit of food for thought.
I thought that was interesting.I wanted to share that with you.

(09:11):
Certainly reach out call, text,
email if you have anyquestions or comments.