Global Research Unlocked
Listen and subscribe to Global Research Unlocked. A podcast from BofA Global Research. Nuanced insights that can help you chart the right path. Our industry-leading analysts discuss what’s emerging – from risks and opportunities to growth themes like AI and energy transition.
Episodes
Please join Ralf Preusser in conversation with Paul Ciana. Paul will talk through his views for 2026 across rates, FX, commodities and equities. Paul will also outline how to use technical analysis and leverage multiple indicators, methodologies, tools, sentiment, and positioning to come up with his high conviction views.
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Earlier this month, BofA Global Research published a note with 10 of the key views outlined in 2026 macro Year Ahead reports. This podcast features seven strategists and economists discussing certain of those themes and offering the primary risks to the views that they foresee. We start with our view on U.S. growth, where we're more bullish than consensus, then offer support for that op...
Ralf Preusser is joined in discussion by Adarsh Sinha and Mark Cabana. We will review the outlook for US rates and the US dollar after this week's FOMC meeting. We also analyse the motivation and implications behind the Fed’s new Reserve Management Purchases. Finally, we will also discuss the dramatic repricing of the policy outlook for the RBA, preview next week's BoJ meeting and outline our views on GBP.
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Surging AI demand is creating volatility and speed-to-power challenges, while grid delays push onsite generation forward. Our Clean Tech Symposium highlighted a major shift in data center power strategies, with the percentage of facilities using onsite gas potentially doubling in the short term. But, its role as bridge vs. temporary depends on economics: transmission and distrib...
Mark Capleton (Global Head of Inflation Linked Strategy) and Meghan Swiber (Senior US Rates Strategist) join for a discussion on what to expect for inflation markets next year. In the US, we see value in real yield with inflation is still above Fed target and cuts expected. Cross market, we think the spread between Euro and US inflation priced too low.
Disclosure:
...Overall spending remains resilient, lux. spend rebounding
David Tinsley, Senior Economist at the Bank of America Institute (not part of BofA Global Research) joins to discuss the latest Institute employment and spend data. The Institute data suggests payroll growth held steady in Sep and Oct, though it has clearly slowed since early 2025. David offers detail and di...
The longest ever US government shutdown has ended after 43 days. The reopening sees the resumption of US data releases, with the September labor market report released on Thursday. We review what we have learnt from the report, as well as the claims data that is also now being published. We discuss what this means for the US rates market and the US dollar.
You may a...
AI has held promise within the healthcare industry for a few years, but Alec Stranahan suggests that the rate and breadth of AI adoption across the industry is growing at a faster pace than ever before. As users of the U.S. healthcare system can attest, there are many inefficiencies and we discuss the areas where AI may be most useful in improving healthcare productivity. ...
The recent US-China agreement may secure short-term access for rare earth elements, but it doesn't alter the strategic need for domestic supply chains. Lawson and Michael highlight the complexity, cost, and time required to build out mining, midstream, and magnet-making capacity, highlighting that China's success today is a result of a commitment made back in the 1980s. US init...
The budget is the main event risk for the UK market. We discuss what we expect Chancellor Reeves to deliver, what this means for the Bank of England, Gilt issuance, rate markets and the currency.
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Tariffs imposed under the International Emergency and Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) account for about 9.5pp of our estimated 14.7pp effective tariff rate after the reduction in fentanyl tariffs on China. Therefore, the Supreme Court's decision could have important implications for activity, inflation, deficits, debt, interest rates, and the dollar. We discuss risks and scenarios after the oral hearings.
As expected US Treasury mainta...
We discuss the FOMC rate and QT decisions. US front-end rates now look much more fairly priced. QT decision disappointed us and we remain concerned about US funding markets. ECB meeting was a non-event, but Euro Area data surprises on both activity and inflation mean that the hawks will likely retain the narrative into the December meeting. We outline what this means for our ECB call and why we still see value in EUR rate markets.
...Aggregate consumer data remains solid despite signs of a slowdown in labor markets. Declining labor supply accounts for some of the labor weakness but other metrics, including the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment, suggest softness in demand as well. We examine why consumption has held up despite these signs of weakness and part of it comes down to the wealth effect, wh...
The outlook for oil prices is bearish in the near term owing to excess supply, but beyond that, prices should firm as supply growth slows. Between geopolitics, economic growth and the dollar, there are plausible scenarios for both higher and lower oil, which Francisco discusses in some detail. And while Francisco and the commodity strategy team came into 2025 bullish on gold...
Takeaways from our inaugural APAC Conference
BofA Global Research hosted its inaugural APAC Conference earlier this month. Timing was opportune. The Chinese CSI 300 Equity Index has outperformed the S&P year-to-date, following years in which the opposite was true and that's helped to pique investor interest. Over 1,200 investors and 300 corporates attended. Winnie Wu joins us to discuss her takeaways from the conference and her...
Ebrahim Poonawala has been busy exploring the topic of stablecoins and the impact on banks. He's hosted expert events, started a series of notes on the topic and has communicated with bank CEOs on developments and potential bank offerings. Ebrahim joins the podcast to talk about regulatory progress but the hurdles that remain before consumers and businesses can start using stab...
While US markets make new highs, the S&P managed care index is half the level it was a year ago. We talk to Kevin Fischbeck about what's driven the substantial weakness and whether deterioration in medical loss ratios (MLR) is temporary or something that will last and prevent these companies from recapturing past margins. Kevin also discusses the different markets served by man...
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