Global Research Unlocked

Stablecoin progress to come with time and reg. clarity

Ebrahim Poonawala has been busy exploring the topic of stablecoins and the impact on banks. He's hosted expert events, started a series of notes on the topic and has communicated with bank CEOs on developments and potential bank offerings. Ebrahim joins the podcast to talk about regulatory progress but the hurdles that remain before consumers and businesses can start using stab...

Still managing to add value for patients and payor

While US markets make new highs, the S&P managed care index is half the level it was a year ago. We talk to Kevin Fischbeck about what's driven the substantial weakness and whether deterioration in medical loss ratios (MLR) is temporary or something that will last and prevent these companies from recapturing past margins. Kevin also discusses the different markets served by man...

10Y yields should fall if Fed more dovish than expected

Leading up to Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, the market has priced in a high likelihood of a 25bp cut at the September FOMC meeting. The prospect of rate cuts has helped to lift homebuilding stocks and the group is up 16% since the end of June. But the 10Y Treasury yield is more relevant for homebuyers taking out fixed-rate or even adjustable-rate mortgages. So a key questio...

Coffee away from home enjoying demographic tailwind

Restaurants have faced some of the same sales challenges experienced elsewhere in the economy as chains more reliant on lower income consumers have felt more pressure than those with a higher income skew. Sara Senatore discusses the opportunity that inflation and a more selective consumer have created for fast casual and even casual dining. But dining preference shifts mean that f...

Rev beats bode well but may not lead to big index gains

The percentage of companies beating on earnings and revenues this season is higher than average and the percentage beating on sales is the highest in four years. Tariffs may be playing a role in the sales beats but either way, the better than expected revenues suggest companies are able to raise prices, a positive sign for corporate resilience. Coupled with softer labor market...

Could be in the early stages of a re-weighting into EM

Emerging Market (EM) equities have outperformed the S&P 500 so far this year. The weaker US dollar has furnished a number of positives for EM assets, from cheaper funding to less imported inflation to a more attractive carry trade. David Hauner discusses the various positives ahead, including superior economic growth, central bank cutting cycles and the possibility of a len...

Several positives for US defense but FY26 a tough comp

Defense spending growth in the US and Europe is accelerating. The shift is particularly acute in Europe, where NATO allies had been spending between 1.5% to 2% of GDP on defense equipment but agreed in late June to spend 3.5% by 2035 (5% including other national security spend). Stocks of the European defense c...

Limited near-term catalysts for market upside

The US Equity Strategy team recently raised its S&P 500 target but the target implies little to no upside between now and year-end as the team sees few positive catalysts over the next several quarters. Fiscal impulse from the One Big Beautiful Bill will be positive but lower than originally expected. The US Economics team expects the new fiscal plan to add between 0.3% and 0.4% to ...

Pipelines boom, esp. in the previously quiet Northeast

There's been a marked increase in the number of natural gas pipelines expected to be in service in the next several years. President Trump's policies explain some of this. But the commercial side is also enabling the boom. Jean Ann Salisbury addresses the various drivers and how these new pipelines could mean several hundred basis points of additional growth for some midstream...

Thorium can power long-term growth nuclear generation

Nuclear energy has received a lot of investor focus, especially following the President's recent executive orders and numerous agreements to supply nuclear power to data centers. But while adding capacity to existing plants isn't a major challenge, adding new US plants is more difficult. Jess Gehin from the Idaho National Lab and BofA Global Research's US Utility analyst Ross Fo...

Long end of Tsy curve faces supply/demand imbalance

As tariff fears have moved to the background, a different economic concern has moved to the foreground-growing fiscal deficits and the impact on interest rates. Public debt-to-GDP stood at 98% last year and is set to rise further. We discuss why deficits have captured the market's attention today and whether growth aspects of the budget plan could be offset by the higher interest ...