Global Research Unlocked

Productivity gains from AI will drive margin growth

The S&P 500 has enjoyed double digit gains this year thanks in part to waning recession concerns and a resilient consumer that has been somewhat insulated from higher interest rates. We sit down with Head of US Equity and Quantitative Strategy, Savita Subramanian, who remains bullish on US equities from these ...

GLP-1 impact should be big but lots of puts and takes

Almost 40% of US adults are obese and the US healthcare system spends nearly $173 billion a year on obesity-related medical costs. In the past, exercise and diet regiments were the best solutions for combating obesity but now there's an injectable called a GLP-1. These drugs trigger receptors in the brain to suppress appetites, cravings and addictive behaviors. Pete Galbo explai...

The EM growth story should unfold in the spring

Oil prices have rallied over the last few months and while Francisco Blanch has crude oil forecasts above the commodity curve for 2024, the curve is downward sloping as demand growth is expected to be weaker and supply stronger. With Emerging Markets (EM) now negatively correlated with oil prices, lower oil could be a relief-China and India are now the biggest importers of oil in the ...

Future of charging depends on complicated questions

Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to account for 35% of new vehicle sales in North America by the end of this decade. This means more EV charging stations will be needed, but the mix between expensive fast chargers, like those seen at highway rest areas, and cheaper slow chargers is debated. Especially as most trips are short and easily within vehicle range. Alex Vrabel joins u...

Narrowbody aircrafts will usher in a new era of aviation

The commercial aircraft market offers fairly steady and attractive growth. About 2-3% of the fleet gets replaced every year and on top of that, the fleet is likely to keep expanding, as air traffic is expected to grow at about 1.5x-1.7x the rate of Global GDP. Within the commercial market, narrowbody aircraft, which traditionally have just one aisle, have been gaining share a...

Sticky inflation means the Fed put slips away

Volatility markets in rates and equities are sending different signals. Equity volatility has fallen back to pre-COVID levels while rate volatility is still elevated. Ben Bowler suggests that despite lots of uncertainty in rate markets, equity investors are still conditioned to "buy the dip." But high inflation means that the free Fed backstop is no longer and tail risks are greater. Th...

Inflation is positive for Japan and BoJ wants it to sustain

Japan's economy has been stuck in a negative feedback loop of low growth, low inflation and interest rates since the asset bubble burst in the late 1980s. An environment of little to no inflation reduced the desire to raise wages, to invest and to spend. But the return of inflation can mean corporate investments in productivity, in growth and a consumer desire to spend. As...

Lithium price likely to fall and take battery costs down too

Lithium is one of the more abundant minerals found in the Earth's crust and relative to other metals markets, like copper, it's still fairly small in size, which helps to explain the volatility. Even though global EV (electric vehicle) penetration is expected to rise to 40% by the end of the decade, Matt DeYoe sees an oversupply of lithium in 2024 and 2025, pressuring pri...

You can't fly to Ithaca when you're in Italy

US network airlines have benefited from booming demand for international travel this summer. Revenues for US to Europe routes are 45% higher than pre-pandemic, helped by pent up demand and a lifting of all restrictions. Domestic beach and mountain destinations were great options in 2021 but have lost share as people set their sights abroad. But Andrew Didora believes we should see some n...

AI to drive productivity and margin expansion over time

Companies have faced rising cost pressures as they emerged from the short-lived COVID downturn. The price of raw materials, labor and money has all risen but there are positives that come with this changing dynamic-companies are forced to focus on efficiency. Savita Subramanian believes we are at the forefront of a productivity boom driven partly by AI but also corporate neces...