California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s recent visit to early-primary South Carolina, followed by his return home and hinting at a special election to re-politicize California’s redistricting process in order to add more Democratic seats in Congress (as a counter to Texas’ legislature doing the same to pad the present House GOP majority), seems further evidence of the term-limited governor’s president ambitions. Yet as Newsom’s South Carolina experience showed, wherever he journeys, he also brings along the Golden State as political baggage.
Hoover senior fellow Lee Ohanian and distinguished policy fellow Bill Whalen, both contributors to Hoover’s California on Your Mind periodical, join Jonathan Movroydis to discuss the latest in the Golden State including where Newsom stands as far as delivering on lofty gubernatorial promises with less than 18 months remaining in his second and final term, as well as how that record on such thorny policy matters as homelessness, new housing and high-speed rail construction might impact his presidential prospects.
Recorded on July 21, 2025.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
[MUSIC]
>> Jonathan Movroydis (00:04):
It's Monday, July 21, 2025, and
you are listening to Matters of Policy andPolitics, a Hoover Institution podcast
devoted to governance and balance of powerhere in America and around the free world.
I'm Jonathan Movroydis, I'm sitting inthe chair of Bill Whalen this morning,
the Virginia Hobbs Carpenter DistinguishedPolicy Fellow in Journalism, so
that he can answer questions and providecommentary about California policy and
politics in which he's well versed.
(00:24):
Bill Whalen, in addition to beinga Washington Post columnist,
writes weekly for How Hoover's Californiaon Your Mind Web channel.
Whalen is joined today by Lee Ohanian,a Hoover Institution Senior fellow and
professor of economics andDirector of the Ettinger Family Program in
Macroeconomic Research at the Universityof California, Los Angeles.
Ohanian also writes weekly about thepolicy environment of the Golden State for
California on Your Mind.
Good day, gentlemen.
(00:45):
How are you doing?
>> Bill Whalen (00:45):
Good. >> Lee Ohanian
>> Jonathan Movroydis (00:47):
You too.
Let's talk about the latestdevelopments in policy and
politics in the Golden State.
The Texas Tribune is reporting that,quote, texas Democrats in Congress have
sharply criticized President DonaldTrump's plan to redraw their state's
political map in the middle of the decade,labeling it as a democracy.
In response to these plans, GovernorNewsom tweeted out on X Trump said he's
going to steal fivecongressional seats in Texas and
(01:09):
gerrymander his way into a 2026 win.
Well, two can play that game.
But for Newsom to gerrymanderCalifornia's electoral map,
he would require a ballot initiative toundo independent redistricting, which is
an accomplishment of Arnold Schwarzeneggerthat the governator likes to tout.
Bill, can you take us through whatsuch a move would take on the part
of Governor Newsom?
And would it come withany political backlash?
>> Bill Whalen (01:31):
It would be a huge roll of the dice, Lee and Jonathan,
in this regard.
Newsom did say two can play this game.
But you're right,California cannot exactly play the game.
The legislature alone cannot do this.
Legislature can do one of two things,
Jonathan can either pass a constitutionalamendment because you're ultimately
amending the Constitution to undotwo ballot initiatives which created
the independent redistrictingprocess in California.
(01:52):
You would then have tocall special election.
The time of year gets curious becauseyou cannot do a special election until
131 days after the legislationhas been approved but
you would have law makersrunning in a March primary and
what would have to be redrawndistricts if this happens.
So you're talking about a special electionlater this year, post haste if you will.
Or they could just pass a simple bill andlet the courts decide, hope that a,
(02:15):
you know,friendly judge would see their way.
But the special electionwould be the outcome here.
It's a roll the dice in this regard,special elections are always tricky for
governors.
I can take you back to Ronald Reagan,who tried one in 1973.
I believe it was Proposition 1,which changed taxes in California.
He got skunked.
Arnold Schwarzenegger did a specialin 2005 for reforms he wanted.
(02:38):
He got skunked as well.
So Newsom would have to roll the dice thatthe voters would be in the mood for this.
He would probably run a foul of Arnold,who I don't think would sit by idly when
one of his accomplishmentswas being played with here.
But I've come to this rathercynical conclusion, Lee, and
I'll let to get your thoughts on this, Ithink if Newsome holds a special election,
he probably winsregardless in this regard.
(02:59):
Either he prevails at the ballot andnow you have changed redistricting and
put it back in the hands ofa Democratic legislature.
And in theory he would more Democraticseats, so he wins that way.
Or Lee, he wins by losing in this regard.
National Democrats would love forGavin Newsom to do this.
He's been talking to Hakeem Jeffries,the House Democratic leader, about this.
(03:19):
They would love to seehim fight the good fight.
And if Newsom is indeed running forpresident in 2028, even though he would
suffer a setback in California, it wouldbe embarrassing to lose the election.
He would still get brownie points withDemocrats nationwide for doing this.
So, Lee, I very cynically would suggestthis is a win win for the governor.
>> Lee Ohanian (03:36):
Yeah, Bill, I agree with you regarding redistricting.
I think the state's media would be, wouldbe very negatively disposed about this.
And it is a media that's largely leftcenter or left of left of center,
but I think that, but yeah,the Democratic National Party, I think,
would be delighted to haveNewsom take one for the team.
(04:01):
His approval ratings have increased very
recently as he has been clashingwith Trump as a California.
I would like Newsom to not to get sotriggered by what the President says,
because he's got a bigjob to do here at home.
But, but it's paying off forhim from a public relations standpoint,
which will just further incentivize,I think, this kind of behavior.
(04:24):
But yeah, I, I, I,I agree this could play into his hands.
I don't think it will go anywhere and
perhaps at this point he probably doesn'treally care if it doesn't go anywhere.
>> Bill Whalen (04:36):
Yeah, no, the campaign,
the special election would line up realsimply, Lee and Jonathan in this regard,
Newsom, backed by special interest, wouldmake this a referendum on Donald Trump.
They would say, look, Donald Trumpis behind the power grab in Texas.
Don't you know,California is immune to this.
Punish Donald Trump by doing this.
So Trump, Trump, Trump.
And maybe that's a good message ina state that barely where Trump
(04:59):
has not won 40% ina presidential election.
But, you know, the problem would bethe pushback in terms of the likes of Ron
getting involved,I presume, at some point.
But one other thing, Lee and Jonathan,Gavin Newsom as governor has not been
a very good ambassador forballot initiatives.
Remember, he was a very public facebehind Proposition 13 back in 2000.
It was a $15 billion education bond,it lost, and
(05:21):
education bonds rarely losein statewide elections.
In 2024,Newsom comes along in the primary and
is the very public face of Proposition 1,which is the anti homelessness initiative.
And as you remember, Lee, it takes weeksfor the ballots for the votes to be.
It gets by the skin of its teeth.
So there's an argument to be made that themore you see of Gavin Newsom in terms of
(05:44):
championing causes,the more it affects the policy itself.
So I'd be very curious just putting on mystrategist hat to see how Newsom would
sell this without makingit a vanity project.
But at this point, given that he seemsvery determined to run for president and
he's not shying away from any publicity, Ithink you'll see his face a lot on tv, and
I just think that could be a problem forhim.
>> Lee Ohanian (06:04):
Yeah, it's interesting, Bill,
you brought up the issue aboutthe additional funding for homelessness.
I think only about six weeks,perhaps eight weeks before the election,
polls showed that waswinning by 2 to 1 and
it barely cleared 50%,maybe 51, as I recall.
(06:26):
Yeah.And that was the governor's poster,
poster child.
Yeah, he went to the mat on that,and it didn't look like,
it looked like he was not positivevalue added for that, for that vote.
But what's interesting is that he seemsto be reclaiming his image nationally.
But among those who know him best,
(06:48):
California is where he's been governingfor what, six, six and a half years now.
His approval regarding issues is.
Is not particularly high.
You know, we'll get into some of theseideas over the next 45 minutes or so,
but there is homelessness,there is housing There is high speed rail.
There is the lack of funding forProposition 36,
(07:11):
which was the crime initiative.
Those who live in California still havesubstantial concerns about the governor,
but perhaps nationally he's doing better.
>> Bill Whalen (07:21):
Yeah. By the way, you mentioned the media.
This is very interesting to watch,
the media ordinarily are behind mostthings Gavin Newsom wants to do.
But in this case,
there was a recoiling against the ideaof fiddling with redistricting.
There's a very interesting columnby Mark Baraback, who rights for
the Los Angeles Times andhe took Newsom very hard to task for this.
And they're saying that number one, do youreally want to mess with the system that
(07:43):
took Registrar out ofthe hands of politicians?
But then he made a point.
We'll get to this later in the podcast.
He said there is a fundamental challengeto Gavin Newsom should he run for
president.
And then that he has this longtrack record of big promises, but
he doesn't deliver at the end of the day.
It creates awareness onthe part of voters as well.
So again, just doing a special election,
(08:04):
it's a roll of the dice because it'sa turnout model is always curious.
It's not a regular election, so youdon't know who's gonna turn out to vote.
You don't know what the mood ofthe public will be vis a vis Trump.
If there really is a lot of kind of windbehind the sale of going after Trump this
way and voters just might decide,this is just a bridge too far for us.
But again, the Seneca me thinks thatif you are running for president,
(08:24):
you're doing what you can to showthat you are decidedly anti Trump.
You will fight at the drop of a hat, thisis yet another way to go about doing it.
Even if it's time consuming, painful, it'sgonna cost taxpayers money in California.
>> Jonathan Movroydis (08:36):
Gentlemen, staying on Governor Newsom,
he has evidently taken a page out ofPresident Trump's social media playbook.
Last week he posted a picture of Trumpwith the infamous Jeffrey Epstein and
he trashed TransportationSecretary Sean Duffy as quote,
the guy who can't keep planes in the skyafter the administration announced that it
would be taking $4 billion away andunspent high speed rail money.
(08:58):
He also calledTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton dude and
corrupt after Paxton criticizedNewsom as hypocritical for
his scrutiny of ICE enforcement,even though a few years earlier
Newsom deployed law enforcementto enforce COVID 19 restrictions.
Gentlemen, is this brash stylethe new path to the White House?
Is this Persona unique to Trump orafter a decade of Trump,
(09:19):
is this becoming a tired old act, Bill?
>> Bill Whalen (09:22):
Yes, you could say imitation is a sincerest form of flattery.
And he's decided that Trump is basicallykind of insult comics his way to
the White House, I can do it too.
I am a old school personwhen it comes to politics.
I hate when politicians resortto this kind of behavior.
He has a rapid response teamthat goes on the Internet and
is at all times going after politicians inother states and the Trump White House and
(09:45):
so forth and jumping onto any andall national news, if you will.
The problem I have with this is simplyit's sophomore and it's at times beneath
the dignity of the office, I think,to do some of these things.
But on top of that, Lee, from just apolitical standpoint, politicians are like
prize fighters, if you will, and you punchin your own weight class, if you will.
(10:06):
So when Gavin Newsom goes after JD Vanceas he did the other day because
Vance was bringing hisfamily to Disneyland.
Okay, I'm kind of childish to go afterhim for going to Disneyland, if you will.
But the vice President, United Statesis in his punching class, if you will.
They're kind of equal weights if you will.
It's when Newsom is goingafter the likes of Nancy Mace,
the congresswoman from South Carolina,getting into fights with her.
(10:30):
Nancy Mace may never run forstatewide office in South Carolina.
She will not be a governor,in all likelihood.
Even if she ran for president,it would be a gadfly operation.
She's not in the same politicalclass as Gavin Newsom, and yet
he seeks to engage with her simplyto get attention, if you will.
So it's the punching down, Lee,that I really don't like about this.
Just stay in your own class weight,Governor.
>> Lee Ohanian (10:51):
Yeah, interesting point, Bill.
The lack of civility in today's politics,I mean, I really despise.
I don't understand whythe governor is doing this,
particularly with regard torelatively anonymous people on
social media who take issue with him ortake issue with California
(11:14):
who might post statements onsocial media that are inaccurate.
There's no one cares,no one cares about this.
Literally zero.
I don't see Andy Beshar, who's a verypopular Democratic governor in Kentucky,
I don't see him doing that.
You see the stories coming out ofBeshar's office being very positive
(11:37):
ones of accomplishments and achievementsand where the state is heading to.
And Beshar is a Democratic governorin a largely republican state.
I think politicians on bothsides could learn a lot from.
Could a lot learn a lot from him orVermont Governor Bill Scott, who has, I
think, the highest approval rating of allgovernors right now in the United States.
(12:00):
Very popular in Vermont now,tiny state, yes.
But there's a sense of leadership thatcomes with taking the high road and
letting actions speak foryou rather than getting into gutters.
And the lack of civilitydoes really bother me.
>> Bill Whalen (12:19):
Well, I assume Lee, the governor and
his advisors have come to two conclusions.
One, they look at the Democraticprimary field in 2028, and
they think what Democratic primaryvoters want, and they want a fighter.
They want somebody who's goingto be tough, if you will.
So I guess they think that goingon the Internet like this and
making nasty social mediacomments is tough, if you will.
(12:40):
But secondly, I think they view it asaddressing a core problem with Democrats.
We had a panel of pollsters hereat Hoover a couple months ago.
And what they talked aboutis really interesting,
they said the Democratic Party at allhad two problems in the 2024 election.
One was the perception of wokeness, and
the other one wasthe perception of weakness.
And so I think maybe this is Newsom'sway to counter perceptions that
(13:02):
he's a beta male, that he is notsufficiently tough by tough language.
You see this in his interviews.
In his interviews, by the way,when he says words like dam and hell and
shows real outrage and things like that.
I think they believe it's kind ofa tough guy image, if you will.
And I just don't know if Gavin Newsom'sthe right guy to pull off toughness.
It's hard to be kind of thisgood-looking kind of, well,
(13:22):
coiffed guy from Marin county allof a sudden be the tough guy.
>> Lee Ohanian (13:26):
Well, yeah, the tough guy who grew up with,
really, I mean, de facto,an enormous amount of privilege.
His early businesses were fundedby the Gettys because of his dad.
He had tremendous connections,including Chuck Schwab.
There's a sense in which heis not to be pejorative, but
(13:49):
he is as elitist as it gets.
And I'm not using the term elitistpejoratively, but he is part of that group
of people who are very, very wealthy,who make a lot of important decisions
regarding California politics, regardingCalifornia commerce, hiring, investment.
That is his circle.
And it's hard to seehim go on podcasts and
(14:11):
sort of be the secondcoming of Clint Eastwood.
Newsom, at the end of the day,I know, Bill,
I'm interested in whatyou think about this.
I mean, from my standpoint, politiciansare remembered by what they accomplish.
Newsom has always prided himselfon being a politician of ideas.
(14:32):
And that goes back to his timeas mayor in San Francisco.
I think perhaps his most strikingaccomplishment as mayor in
San Francisco what was it, the 4,000marriage licenses to same sex couples.
That proved to be far ahead of his time.
I mean, many states followed up on that.
I think he will be remembered for that.
(14:52):
But at the same time,as mayor of San Francisco,
he promised to end homelessness by 2014.
He had these kind of off the wall ideas.
I think I remember reading the SanFrancisco Chronicle about homeless meters.
They would be like parking meters,
except you would put yourchange into a homeless meter.
(15:14):
That would go to a nonprofitthat was serving the homeless or
those with substance abuse.
Politicians remember forwhat they actually implement.
It's not the ideas,it's what they actually achieve.
And what was it, 21 policy papers.
20 policy papers when hewas San Francisco mayor.
(15:34):
That's not what an Americanpolitician gets rewarded for,
it's what would you actually implement andwhat you actually achieve.
>> Bill Whalen (15:41):
Yeah, it's always a tricky thing in politics to try to steal somebody
else's act.
And so I thought that, well,if Donald Trump can go on social media and
just blast people all day long,why can't I do it, too?
Well, Trump, as we've seen for the pastdecade, now has a certain, shall we say,
Teflon about him now, granted, the JeffreyEpstein thing is testing the different.
Durability of that Teflon.
But Trump still gets away withstuff other politicians can't.
(16:04):
And this is the danger.
If you decide to play the samesocial media game as Trump.
You live by the sword.
There's a potential to die by the sword.
And by that,I mean you have these towel snapping,
snarky aides who are doing rapid response.
At some point,somebody's going to go too far.
A good example is Stephen Miller, theTrump aide who Newsom goes after as well.
Another example of punching downthe governor of California.
(16:25):
Why bother with the White House aide?
He's just small potatoes compared to you.
But Newsom's gone afterhim in very hard terms.
At some point it's going to come acrossas a threat and before you know it,
the Justice Department's going to belooking at your operation saying,
what are you doing as well?
So I just wish the governor would kindof throttle it back on the social media.
I understand the tough Persona.
(16:46):
I understand you want to play this game.
I know the Democraticprimary voters like it.
But for goodness sake, you're the governorof the largest state in America,
show a little dignity, sir.
>> Lee Ohanian (16:55):
Well, he's, he's six and a half years into being governor.
There's, there's not much time left.
You know, if you thought abouta signature achievement, I think he's,
I think he's still looking for that.
I do love the governor for, applaud thegovernor for the fact that he has helped
(17:16):
bring clean water to many rural,very, very poor communities.
That flies under the radarin a lot of media stories.
That's probably not going to bea signature achievement, but
all the potential signature achievements.
There was the Marshall Plan on housing,there was ending homelessness.
There was high speed rail.
There was just a laundry list of thingsthat were supposed to be achieved.
(17:40):
There's a year and a half left or so.
Let's hope that he kind ofgets to some of that and
makes some more headway because right now,just uncivil talking to anyone and
everyone who's beingcritical of California.
I just don't think it's helpingout Californians very much.
>> Jonathan Movroydis (18:01):
Lee, can we grade the governor's,
his legacy on each of thesepoints that you just raised?
Can he,can he right the ship on high speed rail?
Can he make lemming, you know,lemonade out of lemons or
it's too little, too late.
You know, you talked about the,the homelessness issue.
He Called it a moral issuethat we must confront.
In a state of the address,as you mentioned,
(18:23):
he declared a Marshall Plan on housing andpromised 3.5 million new homes by 2025.
On these two specifically,can he right the ship?
I mean, there was a recent announcementfor CEQA reform by the state legislature
and the idea that we can make thesereforms and speed up new housing.
There was a recent report over the pasttwo years homelessness actually went down
(18:45):
in California.
How can we rate Governor Newsom andcan he right the ship and you know,
run on any sort of accomplishmentsif he chooses to run in 2028?
>> Lee Ohanian (18:54):
Well, high speed rail is going to be very,
very difficult because rightnow we only have the focus for
high speed rail right now is on a, is onthe line between Bakersfield and Merced.
>> Bill Whalen (19:05):
Right.
>> Lee Ohanian (19:06):
The Inspector general, which is the,
which is the group who have oversight andaccountability responsibility for
California high speed rail have indicated,I believe the quote was
something like it will be unlikelythat it will be finished by 2033.
So best of case scenario is that,is that he leaves office in 2028 and
(19:32):
we're still a minimum of fiveyears away from high speed
rail on a line that no one ever voted for.
2008 was when we issuedthe 9.95 billion bond.
I was supposed to connectLA to San Francisco.
The regional completion did,I believe, was around 2020.
(19:54):
I believe the original budget forLA to San Francisco was $33 billion.
That in and of itself was a mistake topush on the taxpayers who voted for
that because that was quoted in $2008.
Not as, as I recall, not the dollars thatwould have to be paid out over time.
(20:18):
So what's happened is that the priceof high speed rail has enormously out.
I think in 2019, the governor saidin the state of the state speech,
he said, you know what,it was a fine idea, but we just don't
have the money to get from here to there,meaning LA to San Francisco.
(20:43):
But he said, but
you know, we can get from,we can get from Bakersfield to Merced and
you know there's just, just step back andthink about that for a second.
That line might cost 38 anda half billion dollars.
That's the upper end of estimates rightnow that the numbers are kind of 35 to
38.5 billion on a trip that's, you know,it's 160 miles, it's a two and
(21:07):
a half hour drive.
There's just not the demand,in my opinion,
there's just not the demand for that.
So at that time, that was hisfirst state of the state speech.
He had 62%, he had just wonthe governorship with 62% of the vote.
That was the time to have indicated toCalifornians that there are just so
many more capital investments,they're just so
(21:30):
much more pressing, so much moreimportant, so much more of a priority.
You name it.
Roads, bridges, dams, levees,fixing school, deferred maintenance,
billions of dollars indeferred maintenance issues.
So that was the time in my opinion, thatthe governor should have said, you know
(21:51):
what, this just isn't going, we'regoing to put this on the back burner.
We're going to take a, you know,we're not going to rush out anymore.
One of the issues with high speed railis it was just there was always a rush.
There was a rush to get the Obama,
the Obama stimulus funds,there was a rush to qualify for
additional federal funds fromthe Biden administration.
(22:16):
And part of the issues that we're seeingnow is that it just wasn't well conceived.
So I don't think that's notgoing to be a positive for him.
He did sign two bills that reformthe California Environmental Quality Act.
I applaud him for doing that.
Kind of in a nutshell, what those billsdo is reduce the environmental hurdles.
(22:37):
That is essentially for urban housing,urban development on infill,
which is either a vacant lot or,or an underutilized lot.
It doesn't really move the needle on CEQAfor, for suburban and rural developments,
which I think should have been done,but it was a good idea to, to do this.
(22:59):
Nevertheless, I don't think it's reallygoing to move the needle much in terms of
housing affordability.
And the simple reason,if you're building in San Francisco or
Los Angeles or San Diego,you're building anywhere on the coast.
It is just expensive.
It is just simply very, very expensive.
And you're looking at, you're lookingat single units that are going to cost,
(23:20):
you know, roughly 500,$600,000 a piece to build.
And the people that we're thinkingabout who are supposed to be able to
afford those homes, they're not goingto be able to afford those homes.
The only way to reduce housing costs andmake housing more affordable is to build
in areas where land is relativelyinexpensive, which is away from the coast,
(23:41):
and lever the efficiencies ofmanufacturing technologies and
modular homes and manufacture housing.
This sequel is overdue for reform, but
I do not expect this is really gonna movethe needle much in terms of housing costs.
>> Bill Whalen (23:55):
No, look, I'll give do some credit for getting something done.
Other governors have Struggledwith CEQA Democrats and
Republicans and fallen short,so he got something done.
So let's give him somecredit where credit's too.
You're right, Lee, though,it's, it's a start, but
it's not all that needs to be done.
Interestingly that you mentionedaffordability, one thing that California's
governor likes to do is he likes to bragabout California vis a vis red states.
(24:18):
In particular, I mentioned, for
example, he got into a slap fight withCongresswoman Nancy Mace over that.
So he dumped on her in South Carolinaby pointing out the superiority of
California.
And he cites things like, andI quote, lower homicide rates,
higher gdp, lower taxes forworking families.
So that's the kind of curious thingabout taxation in California, but
where California suffers.
Lee, is that word affordability?
(24:39):
U.S. news each year rates America's statestop to bottom in various categories,
one of which is so called opportunity,
which they define as economic opportunity,affordability and equality.
Lee, do you want to guess forCalifornia rates among the 50 states?
>> Lee Ohanian (24:55):
Yes, I'm close to the bottom, bill.
>> Bill Whalen (24:57):
I think 50th California is dead last in the nation in terms of
affordability.
And this is the problem.
Look, I travel in the summertimearound the country.
I go to South Carolina in particular,which we're gonna talk about in a minute.
The first thing that strikes you when yougo to the states in America is, my God,
it's cheaper here,gasoline in South Carolina is about $2.80.
The houses have one less zeroon them than California.
(25:20):
And the list goes on insurance andso on and so forth.
So it's an affordabilitything that dogs the governor.
But I want to go back to highspeed rail for a moment here.
The governor is now suingthe Trump administration,
the Transportation Department, forpulling back the $4 billion again.
I don't blame him, if I were the governor,I do the same thing.
It's like having a challenge in baseball.
(25:41):
Use the challenge if you get the moneyback, nothing to be lost there.
But the problem is when you talkabout high speed rail at all times,
it's the math that stands out.
Lee and Jonathan, this was a track.
Lee talked about the deadlinesthat have long been gone by.
This was a rail system that went from$33 billion, Lee, to $89 billion.
It's now at 128 and it doesn't cost less,it just costs more,
(26:02):
who knows in two years nowwhere it's gonna stand?
There's about $100 billion in fundingstill to be had and last I looked, there's
nobody out there who's gonna write a 12figure check to come bailout California.
And then you go inside the project itself,Lee, when it was first cooked up,
they estimated there wouldbe 55 million riders on it.
Amtrak gets 33 millionriders a year nationally, so
(26:25):
California's not going to have 55 million.
They estimated that the train, the ticketprices would be half that of an airline.
It just the math doesn't up.
And the problem for the governor, again,getting back to presidential aspirations,
it's just first glances at California andwhat are kind of apparent eyesores and
boondoggles and homelessness, which wetalked about as an obvious eyesore.
(26:45):
And this railroad juststands out as a boondoggle.
And it's really becoming tougher for
this governor to defend what isin many regards the indefensible.
>> Lee Ohanian (26:54):
Yeah. And Bill,
it's striking because I thought thathe had to use a bad baseball analogy,
they were waving the runner home and therewas no way the guy was gonna get called
out of home plate unless he stoppedhalfway between third base and home and
then said, I'm being waived, I better keepgoing, and then he was called out a third.
(27:16):
I think that's what the governordid in 2019 when he
acknowledged we've had a lot of brokenpromises, lots of cost overruns,
things haven't gonewell with this project.
Were not gonna continue on this path, fullstop, instead he said, Bakersfield Merced.
And when he saidBakersfield Merced in 2019,
(27:40):
I think the budget at thattime was I think around 16,
17 billion and now it's 35 to 38 billion.
Personally, I don't see it beingworth 16 to 17 billion because again,
it's a route that justdoesn't make any sense for
a high speed rail if that'sall you're going to do.
It's trend travel, you know it, for
(28:02):
decades it has beenthe fascination many Americans.
But Bill, would you believe me if Itold you that the intercontinental
railroad that connected Iowa to Ithink it was either San Francisco or
Oakland, I think roughlysomewhere between 1500-2000
(28:23):
miles was built in six years during,during the Civil War.
>> Bill Whalen (28:28):
Right. Including blasting through mountains,
blasting through mounds.
>> Lee Ohanian (28:31):
And not really known an awful lot about the topography or
you know, maps, not really allthat well developed at that time.
That was built in six years.
We, we started pursuing high speedrail over 30 years ago in terms
of commissions and plans.
I Mean, we just aren't the game, you know,we're just the game that couldn't shoot
straight when it comes to,when it comes to rail travel.
(28:53):
And California is nota walkable city kind of state.
And to think that people are going tohop on the train from Bakersfield and
go to Merced and hop off the train anddo whatever you do,
whatever you're thinking about.
The only way that would ever happen,in my opinion,
is if the price of a ticketwas just obscenely low.
(29:15):
And then you run into the issue of,well, you've spent-
>> Bill Whalen (29:18):
You're gonna have
an operating deficit.
>> Lee Ohanian (29:20):
You're gonna have it, yeah, significant operating deficit,
much less capital costs.
I would like to think that the governor,if he was thinking back, you know,
if he had some regrets,that that would be one of his regrets.
But, yeah,he's suing the Trump administration.
I, I'd be surprised that they'resuccessful largely because the, I mean,
the inspector general of the high speedrail is saying that, hey, you know what,
(29:43):
there's a huge funding issue, it'sprobably not going to be done by 2033.
And the federal Railroad Administrationis say, you know what,
we have to be on the lookout fortax dollars and we have to
make sure they're spent responsibly,and then high benefit projects.
And this is not looking like one of those.
And I just don't see how you'regoing to argue with that.
>> Bill Whalen (30:06):
Well, let's point out one bit of a high speed rail, Lee, you and
I write each week about California andeach year it sits there as a,
as a chestnut for us, forus to write about what a hot mess it is.
So we can count on that each year deliverfor us, but let's say Lee and Jonathan,
even if they somehow manage to buildthe so called Train to Nowhere,
the Versaille Bakersfield line, andsomehow magically $100 billion appears and
(30:27):
they somehow managed to build a linefrom Los Angeles to San Francisco.
You still have a failedproduct in this regard.
What do you do if you're in San Diego andwhat do you do if you're in Sacramento?
You're not on the system,you're off the grid.
>> Lee Ohanian (30:39):
Yeah, yeah, you're not on the, you're off the grid.
And Bill, you know,you indicated that, you know,
the world was anticipated to be quitedifferent from the perspective of 2008.
The railway plan, I think, envisioned apopulation of 50, 50 million in the state.
And I think we're somewherearound 39 million.
(30:59):
And with 50 million.
The idea was lax,would not have the capacity.
SFO would not have the capacity.
The Oakland Airport wouldnot have the capacity.
We would just be busting out at the seams,
what are we gonna do with theseadditional 11 million people?
You know, they haven't,you know, they haven't shown up.
So much less, much less remote work, muchless, you know, are we're doing zoom here.
(31:25):
All the technological innovationsthat have happened to,
in my opinion,reduce demand for rail travel,
including things like self driving cars,aren't that far into the future.
The big part of the benefits was supposedto be reducing carbon emissions.
But guess what, the governor signedan executive order a few years ago that
(31:46):
since has been overturned by the Senate,by Congress, and
signed by Trump about electric carmandates, just was a very different world.
Yeah, I wish it was different.
I wish the.
And interesting,the last thing I'll say about this bill,
the governor was having disagreementswith his own party about this.
Back in 2021, there was what, a 14 or16 month standoff between the governor and
(32:09):
the Assembly.
The, I believe the leader atthat time was Anthony Rendon.
He was saying, look, you know, we weresupposed to have this done in 2020.
What's happening with this?
We need to have some clarity.
And there's never any clarity about this.
How can we commit money when wecan't have a legitimate idea that is
going to be done on time andgoing to be done at a reasonable cost?
(32:31):
So it's been a mess.
>> Bill Whalen (32:34):
It is a final thought on it for the governor to now say that it's
a mess that should not go forward, he'snow opening up a kind of a very bad can
of worms fora Democratic candidate nationally.
I would, as a reporter, I'd say, okay,if you're going to say high speed rail is
a message to be taken down,what about the Biden plan for, you know,
the nationwide electric grid system andthe chargers?
What about that?
(32:55):
Should we stop doing that?
And the Democratic Party loves bigprojects, they love to kind of dream about
transforming society through rail andgreen energy and things like that.
And unfortunately,the dream doesn't match up to reality.
And California has become,unfortunately, a case study of that.
>> Jonathan Movroydis (33:11):
Gentleman, I should have noted in my question that the drop in
homelessness was actuallyin the city of Los Angeles,
not the greater state of California.
But I want to move on toour next question, Bill,
Governor Newsom was inSouth Carolina last week.
What was he doing there?
>> Bill Whalen (33:24):
Newsom's trip was kind of low key in this regard,
if you think ofSouth Carolina's diamond shape.
He was campaigning up at about 10 to11 o', clock, part of South Carolina,
which is rural.
He wasn't in a big media market likeGreenville or Columbia or Charleston.
He was working small towns.
But the point was to show that a,you know,
urban slick governor canconnect with rural people.
(33:46):
It's, you know, it wasn't made forattention by South Carolina standards.
It was kind of a B level trip,if you will.
The state party has a bigfundraising dinner each spring.
The governor did notgive the keynote there.
The keynote instead was delivered byWes Moore, the upcoming governor from
Maryland, who is my choice of kind ofa dark horse candidate for Democrats,
because I could see him kind of swoopingin the way Barack Obama did in 2008,
(34:09):
which I think would be frustrating forNewsom.
But These trips just kind ofthe national media like it.
The California media love to chew on it,but it doesn't really, you know,
move the needle back among locals.
In fact, it's urgency to see the reaction.
So one Democratic state senator said,well, you know, he's a good looking guy,
but geez Louise, I don't think the partyneeds a liberal from California to run.
(34:31):
And sure enough, he got blasted bythe local state GOP for coming in,
in particular the attorney general who'srunning for governor, who said that
basically Gavin Newsom could take all hisfailed California policies and go home.
And Lee, this is the problem forNewsom running moving forward.
If he's going to run for president, nomatter how many suitcases he brings with
him, he's always going to be carryingthe baggage of California as well.
(34:53):
And how he overcomes that perception ofCalifornia, I'm not so sure he puts out
the talking points about as being lowabout this, about or about that, but, boy,
it's very hard to undo perceptions aboutCalifornia as a place that's gone wrong.
>> Lee Ohanian (35:06):
Bill yeah, it's interesting.
The Republican Party has gone throughjust an enormous transformation the last
10 years.
I recall being part of a Hooverteam who was helping advise
Jeb bush in the 2016 election.
And we met in the late summer of 15,and I remember during a coffee break,
(35:26):
I was speaking with,with one of his political advisors.
I don't remember the individual's name,but he'd been in the RNC for a long,
long time, you know, very,very long track record in politics.
And I asked him, I said,you know, what about Trump?
And he said, Trump, not even a Republican.
Said he's old friends with Bill,old friends with Hillary, he's a Democrat,
(35:48):
he'll have His Andy Warhol 15 minutes andthat'll be it.
So fast forward andwe know what the history is.
And so whether people like Trump or not,he has reinvented the Republican Party.
And I think the Democratic Party is goingthrough its own transformation now.
(36:08):
Just go back to not even 30 years ago.
I think it was Clinton's 1996 Stateof the Union address where he spoke,
where he uttered those famous words,the era of big government is over.
He talked about school choice,he talked about welfare to work.
(36:28):
You know, he did deals with Newt Gingrich.
That's just not today'sDemocratic Party anymore.
And I think the Democratic Party'sgot to figure out, okay, well,
are we going to go with someonelike Alexandria Ocasio Cortez?
Are we going to go with someonelike Andy Bescher West Paul Gavin
isn't really either one of those,in my opinion.
(36:51):
I think he's trying to straddlethat world until there's a,
a clear signal about what the party wants.
But at the end of the day, in terms ofaccomplishments, the ads will be obvious.
The ads will be people onthe streets of San Francisco and
Los Angeles passed out on fentanyl.
They'll be, you know,there will be ads about crime,
(37:12):
there'll be ads about homelessness.
There'll be ads abouthousing affordability,
there will be ads about $32 billionpaid off in unemployment benefit fraud.
There's just going to be a longstring of failures within the state.
(37:33):
And not all of these are theresponsibility of, of Governor Newsom.
Many of them have been in place fora long, long time.
Homelessness, housingaffordability certainly have.
But he's going to, you know,he's going to be the bag man for that.
He's going to be who peopleare going to be pointing to.
And you know,he can talk all he wants about, well,
we're the fifth largest economy,the fourth largest economy.
(37:56):
India, by the way, is going tosurpass us at some point this year.
And he can talk about venture capital,he can talk about all sorts of things.
But at the end of the day, you just,you're not going to be able to unsee
those images of San Francisco andLos Angeles and the fires.
(38:16):
And again, not to blame the governor, butthat's what voters can be looking at.
And they're going to be,
a lot of them are going to beconnecting him with those dots.
>> Bill Whalen (38:26):
Yeah. You know,
if he does get traction as a presidentialcandidate, we should, by the way,
that poly market, the, the betting marketcame out some numbers the other day and
it's odds on favorite in 2028is Vice President Vance.
And then three Democrats stand out.
Newsom gets the most betsamong Democrats followed by,
I believe Pete Buttigieg and aoc.
Those are your three,I would argue probably go for
(38:48):
someone other than those three.
But let's, let's say Newsom does gettraction, that he's starting to click in
early states andthe poll numbers are looking good.
He's gonna get attacked, Lee and Jonathan,he's going to get attacked within his own
party because it won't justbe him running for president.
The governor of Illinois ishyper ambitious JB Pritzker.
He is a billionaire.
He could create some sort of independentgroup that would attack Newsom.
(39:10):
The governor of Michigan might run,the governor of Pennsylvania might run.
I mentioned the governor of Maryland and
the list goes on of otherDemocrats who might jump in.
Somebody is going to go after him andgo after his California record and
if I'm cutting the ad it's pretty simple.
There's a famous clip of Newsom on histrip to China last year I believe it was
Lee or the year before, and you'veprobably seen it he is on a basketball
(39:33):
court and he's goofing around a couple ofkids and he dribbles between his legs and
he decides he's left handed sohe starts dribbling to his left and
he just plows over a kid.
They both go tumbling to the groundI think that's your ad kind of
like John Kerry on a wind sail it'sGavin Newsom's fallen down on the job and
just kind of go after California that way.
So he's going to have to again this iswhy I mentioned the California baggage,
(39:55):
wherever he goes he's got toexplain California to conservative.
Conservative populations about why it'snot, you know, why it's not, you know,
progressivism, hell on, on steroids.
But to a skeptical Democraticaudience as to, you know,
what he's actually done as governor,does it really have the chops or not?
And I just think there'll be othergovernors competing in that space who want
to say that, you know, it's really ourstate, that's model, not California.
(40:18):
But you do raise an interesting point,Lee, Democrats.
I think kind of havingthis conversation or
at least agonizing onwhere the party goes.
Look at in a couple of months,the great city of New York City,
one of the great cities in the world,
might be electing as its next mayora 33 year old socialist Nepo baby.
So I'm not sure what this says aboutNew York or the Democratic Party, but
you know, it is a question about whatmodel they are looking at moving forward.
>> Lee Ohanian (40:42):
Yeah, that, that didn't provide me with an awful lot of clarity
about, about the Democratic Partybecause when you looked at that,
when you looked at who was running,that was in my opinion,
a very flawed slate of candidates who ran.
And it brings up two issues to me,one isn't there.
(41:05):
Why wasn't there a less flawed candidate?
And the second is you look atturnout in New York City and
what Mamdani was able to harnesswas despite the fact that turnout
was still very, very low, it,it surged among young people.
And I think that's,that's what put him over.
(41:26):
So Democratic Party's gonna kind of,you know,
they have a lot of stuff to figureout between now and now and 2028.
And I, I mean, my heart goesout to the people in New York.
I mean, maybe, maybe that young fellowwill become more of a pragmatist.
I certainly hope so because hecould make a big mess of things.
>> Bill Whalen (41:46):
Well, I will say this about him.
He believes what he believes.
I think he is authentic andhe says what he believes.
God help us all andGod help the good people of New York.
But this is another challenge for
the governor of California ashe moves forward presidentially.
It's a question of authenticity.
When he goes on podcasts, as you mentionedearlier, Lee, especially conservative
leaning podcasts, and he, and he startsissuing doubt about transgender sports.
(42:06):
And the latest one he did,he was very, very,
he was trying to show off thathe actually likes guns and, and
was bragging about shooting skills andthings like that.
I remember John Kerry running forPresident 2004,
thought it'd be a greatidea to put on camo and
start marching around the Midwest andpeople thought you look like Elmer Fudd.
This is stupid Newsom trying tocome across as a tough outdoorsman.
(42:28):
Getting back to yourClint Eastwood analogy, Lee,
it does kind of beg a question.
Who is this guy?
What does he actually believe?
>> Jonathan Movroydis (42:35):
Gentlemen, thank you for your time.
As always, this has been an hourof intriguing and timely analysis.
>> Bill Whalen (42:40):
Thank you, Jonathan.
Thank you, Lee.
>> Lee Ohanian (42:42):
Thanks guys.
>> Jonathan Movroydis (42:43):
You've been listening to matters of policy
and politics.
The Hoover Institution podcast devotedgovernance and balanced power here in
America and around the free world,please don't forget to rate, review and
subscribe to this podcastwherever you might hear it.
And if you don't mind,please spread the word.
Get your friends to have a listen.
The Hoover Institution has Facebook,Instagram and X feeds.
Our X handle is HVRinst,that's Hooverinst.
Bill Whalen is on X.
His handle is @BillWhalenCA.
(43:04):
Please visit the Hoover websiteat Hoover.org and sign up for
the Hoover Daily Report, where youcan access the latest scholarship and
analysis from our fellows.
Also check out California on youn MindMind, where Bill Whalen and Lee Ohanian
write every week, again, this is JonathanMovroydis sitting in Bill Whalen's chair.
This week he'll be back for anotherepisode of Matters, Policy and Politics.
Thank you for listening.
>> Speaker 4 (43:22):
This podcast is a production of the Hoover Institution,
where we generate andpromote ideas, advancing freedom.
For more information about our work,to hear more of our podcasts or
view our video content,please visit hoover.org.
[MUSIC]
>> Jonathan Movroydis (00:04):
It's Monday, July 21, 2025, and
you are listening to Matters of Policy andPolitics, a Hoover Institution podcast
devoted to governance and balance of powerhere in America and around the free world.
I'm Jonathan Movroydis, I'm sitting inthe chair of Bill Whalen this morning,
the Virginia Hobbs Carpenter DistinguishedPolicy Fellow in Journalism, so
that he can answer questions and providecommentary about California policy and
politics in which he's well versed.
(00:24):
Bill Whalen, in addition to beinga Washington Post columnist,
writes weekly for How Hoover's Californiaon Your Mind Web channel.
Whalen is joined today by Lee Ohanian,a Hoover Institution Senior fellow and
professor of economics andDirector of the Ettinger Family Program in
Macroeconomic Research at the Universityof California, Los Angeles.
Ohanian also writes weekly about thepolicy environment of the Golden State for
California on Your Mind.
Good day, gentlemen.
(00:45):
How are you doing?
>> Bill Whalen (00:45):
Good. >> Lee Ohanian
>> Jonathan Movroydis (00:47):
You too.
Let's talk about the latestdevelopments in policy and
politics in the Golden State.
The Texas Tribune is reporting that,quote, texas Democrats in Congress have
sharply criticized President DonaldTrump's plan to redraw their state's
political map in the middle of the decade,labeling it as a democracy.
In response to these plans, GovernorNewsom tweeted out on X Trump said he's
going to steal fivecongressional seats in Texas and
(01:09):
gerrymander his way into a 2026 win.
Well, two can play that game.
But for Newsom to gerrymanderCalifornia's electoral map,
he would require a ballot initiative toundo independent redistricting, which is
an accomplishment of Arnold Schwarzeneggerthat the governator likes to tout.
Bill, can you take us through whatsuch a move would take on the part
of Governor Newsom?
And would it come withany political backlash?
>> Bill Whalen (01:31):
It would be a huge roll of the dice, Lee and Jonathan,
in this regard.
Newsom did say two can play this game.
But you're right,California cannot exactly play the game.
The legislature alone cannot do this.
Legislature can do one of two things,
Jonathan can either pass a constitutionalamendment because you're ultimately
amending the Constitution to undotwo ballot initiatives which created
the independent redistrictingprocess in California.
(01:52):
You would then have tocall special election.
The time of year gets curious becauseyou cannot do a special election until
131 days after the legislationhas been approved but
you would have law makersrunning in a March primary and
what would have to be redrawndistricts if this happens.
So you're talking about a special electionlater this year, post haste if you will.
Or they could just pass a simple bill andlet the courts decide, hope that a,
(02:15):
you know,friendly judge would see their way.
But the special electionwould be the outcome here.
It's a roll the dice in this regard,special elections are always tricky for
governors.
I can take you back to Ronald Reagan,who tried one in 1973.
I believe it was Proposition 1,which changed taxes in California.
He got skunked.
Arnold Schwarzenegger did a specialin 2005 for reforms he wanted.
(02:38):
He got skunked as well.
So Newsom would have to roll the dice thatthe voters would be in the mood for this.
He would probably run a foul of Arnold,who I don't think would sit by idly when
one of his accomplishmentswas being played with here.
But I've come to this rathercynical conclusion, Lee, and
I'll let to get your thoughts on this, Ithink if Newsome holds a special election,
he probably winsregardless in this regard.
(02:59):
Either he prevails at the ballot andnow you have changed redistricting and
put it back in the hands ofa Democratic legislature.
And in theory he would more Democraticseats, so he wins that way.
Or Lee, he wins by losing in this regard.
National Democrats would love forGavin Newsom to do this.
He's been talking to Hakeem Jeffries,the House Democratic leader, about this.
(03:19):
They would love to seehim fight the good fight.
And if Newsom is indeed running forpresident in 2028, even though he would
suffer a setback in California, it wouldbe embarrassing to lose the election.
He would still get brownie points withDemocrats nationwide for doing this.
So, Lee, I very cynically would suggestthis is a win win for the governor.
>> Lee Ohanian (03:36):
Yeah, Bill, I agree with you regarding redistricting.
I think the state's media would be, wouldbe very negatively disposed about this.
And it is a media that's largely leftcenter or left of left of center,
but I think that, but yeah,the Democratic National Party, I think,
would be delighted to haveNewsom take one for the team.
(04:01):
His approval ratings have increased very
recently as he has been clashingwith Trump as a California.
I would like Newsom to not to get sotriggered by what the President says,
because he's got a bigjob to do here at home.
But, but it's paying off forhim from a public relations standpoint,
which will just further incentivize,I think, this kind of behavior.
(04:24):
But yeah, I, I, I,I agree this could play into his hands.
I don't think it will go anywhere and
perhaps at this point he probably doesn'treally care if it doesn't go anywhere.
>> Bill Whalen (04:36):
Yeah, no, the campaign,
the special election would line up realsimply, Lee and Jonathan in this regard,
Newsom, backed by special interest, wouldmake this a referendum on Donald Trump.
They would say, look, Donald Trumpis behind the power grab in Texas.
Don't you know,California is immune to this.
Punish Donald Trump by doing this.
So Trump, Trump, Trump.
And maybe that's a good message ina state that barely where Trump
(04:59):
has not won 40% ina presidential election.
But, you know, the problem would bethe pushback in terms of the likes of Ron
getting involved,I presume, at some point.
But one other thing, Lee and Jonathan,Gavin Newsom as governor has not been
a very good ambassador forballot initiatives.
Remember, he was a very public facebehind Proposition 13 back in 2000.
It was a $15 billion education bond,it lost, and
(05:21):
education bonds rarely losein statewide elections.
In 2024,Newsom comes along in the primary and
is the very public face of Proposition 1,which is the anti homelessness initiative.
And as you remember, Lee, it takes weeksfor the ballots for the votes to be.
It gets by the skin of its teeth.
So there's an argument to be made that themore you see of Gavin Newsom in terms of
(05:44):
championing causes,the more it affects the policy itself.
So I'd be very curious just putting on mystrategist hat to see how Newsom would
sell this without makingit a vanity project.
But at this point, given that he seemsvery determined to run for president and
he's not shying away from any publicity, Ithink you'll see his face a lot on tv, and
I just think that could be a problem forhim.
>> Lee Ohanian (06:04):
Yeah, it's interesting, Bill,
you brought up the issue aboutthe additional funding for homelessness.
I think only about six weeks,perhaps eight weeks before the election,
polls showed that waswinning by 2 to 1 and
it barely cleared 50%,maybe 51, as I recall.
(06:26):
Yeah.And that was the governor's poster,
poster child.
Yeah, he went to the mat on that,and it didn't look like,
it looked like he was not positivevalue added for that, for that vote.
But what's interesting is that he seemsto be reclaiming his image nationally.
But among those who know him best,
(06:48):
California is where he's been governingfor what, six, six and a half years now.
His approval regarding issues is.
Is not particularly high.
You know, we'll get into some of theseideas over the next 45 minutes or so,
but there is homelessness,there is housing There is high speed rail.
There is the lack of funding forProposition 36,
(07:11):
which was the crime initiative.
Those who live in California still havesubstantial concerns about the governor,
but perhaps nationally he's doing better.
>> Bill Whalen (07:21):
Yeah. By the way, you mentioned the media.
This is very interesting to watch,
the media ordinarily are behind mostthings Gavin Newsom wants to do.
But in this case,
there was a recoiling against the ideaof fiddling with redistricting.
There's a very interesting columnby Mark Baraback, who rights for
the Los Angeles Times andhe took Newsom very hard to task for this.
And they're saying that number one, do youreally want to mess with the system that
(07:43):
took Registrar out ofthe hands of politicians?
But then he made a point.
We'll get to this later in the podcast.
He said there is a fundamental challengeto Gavin Newsom should he run for
president.
And then that he has this longtrack record of big promises, but
he doesn't deliver at the end of the day.
It creates awareness onthe part of voters as well.
So again, just doing a special election,
(08:04):
it's a roll of the dice because it'sa turnout model is always curious.
It's not a regular election, so youdon't know who's gonna turn out to vote.
You don't know what the mood ofthe public will be vis a vis Trump.
If there really is a lot of kind of windbehind the sale of going after Trump this
way and voters just might decide,this is just a bridge too far for us.
But again, the Seneca me thinks thatif you are running for president,
(08:24):
you're doing what you can to showthat you are decidedly anti Trump.
You will fight at the drop of a hat, thisis yet another way to go about doing it.
Even if it's time consuming, painful, it'sgonna cost taxpayers money in California.
>> Jonathan Movroydis (08:36):
Gentlemen, staying on Governor Newsom,
he has evidently taken a page out ofPresident Trump's social media playbook.
Last week he posted a picture of Trumpwith the infamous Jeffrey Epstein and
he trashed TransportationSecretary Sean Duffy as quote,
the guy who can't keep planes in the skyafter the administration announced that it
would be taking $4 billion away andunspent high speed rail money.
(08:58):
He also calledTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton dude and
corrupt after Paxton criticizedNewsom as hypocritical for
his scrutiny of ICE enforcement,even though a few years earlier
Newsom deployed law enforcementto enforce COVID 19 restrictions.
Gentlemen, is this brash stylethe new path to the White House?
Is this Persona unique to Trump orafter a decade of Trump,
(09:19):
is this becoming a tired old act, Bill?
>> Bill Whalen (09:22):
Yes, you could say imitation is a sincerest form of flattery.
And he's decided that Trump is basicallykind of insult comics his way to
the White House, I can do it too.
I am a old school personwhen it comes to politics.
I hate when politicians resortto this kind of behavior.
He has a rapid response teamthat goes on the Internet and
is at all times going after politicians inother states and the Trump White House and
(09:45):
so forth and jumping onto any andall national news, if you will.
The problem I have with this is simplyit's sophomore and it's at times beneath
the dignity of the office, I think,to do some of these things.
But on top of that, Lee, from just apolitical standpoint, politicians are like
prize fighters, if you will, and you punchin your own weight class, if you will.
(10:06):
So when Gavin Newsom goes after JD Vanceas he did the other day because
Vance was bringing hisfamily to Disneyland.
Okay, I'm kind of childish to go afterhim for going to Disneyland, if you will.
But the vice President, United Statesis in his punching class, if you will.
They're kind of equal weights if you will.
It's when Newsom is goingafter the likes of Nancy Mace,
the congresswoman from South Carolina,getting into fights with her.
(10:30):
Nancy Mace may never run forstatewide office in South Carolina.
She will not be a governor,in all likelihood.
Even if she ran for president,it would be a gadfly operation.
She's not in the same politicalclass as Gavin Newsom, and yet
he seeks to engage with her simplyto get attention, if you will.
So it's the punching down, Lee,that I really don't like about this.
Just stay in your own class weight,Governor.
>> Lee Ohanian (10:51):
Yeah, interesting point, Bill.
The lack of civility in today's politics,I mean, I really despise.
I don't understand whythe governor is doing this,
particularly with regard torelatively anonymous people on
social media who take issue with him ortake issue with California
(11:14):
who might post statements onsocial media that are inaccurate.
There's no one cares,no one cares about this.
Literally zero.
I don't see Andy Beshar, who's a verypopular Democratic governor in Kentucky,
I don't see him doing that.
You see the stories coming out ofBeshar's office being very positive
(11:37):
ones of accomplishments and achievementsand where the state is heading to.
And Beshar is a Democratic governorin a largely republican state.
I think politicians on bothsides could learn a lot from.
Could a lot learn a lot from him orVermont Governor Bill Scott, who has, I
think, the highest approval rating of allgovernors right now in the United States.
(12:00):
Very popular in Vermont now,tiny state, yes.
But there's a sense of leadership thatcomes with taking the high road and
letting actions speak foryou rather than getting into gutters.
And the lack of civilitydoes really bother me.
>> Bill Whalen (12:19):
Well, I assume Lee, the governor and
his advisors have come to two conclusions.
One, they look at the Democraticprimary field in 2028, and
they think what Democratic primaryvoters want, and they want a fighter.
They want somebody who's goingto be tough, if you will.
So I guess they think that goingon the Internet like this and
making nasty social mediacomments is tough, if you will.
(12:40):
But secondly, I think they view it asaddressing a core problem with Democrats.
We had a panel of pollsters hereat Hoover a couple months ago.
And what they talked aboutis really interesting,
they said the Democratic Party at allhad two problems in the 2024 election.
One was the perception of wokeness, and
the other one wasthe perception of weakness.
And so I think maybe this is Newsom'sway to counter perceptions that
(13:02):
he's a beta male, that he is notsufficiently tough by tough language.
You see this in his interviews.
In his interviews, by the way,when he says words like dam and hell and
shows real outrage and things like that.
I think they believe it's kind ofa tough guy image, if you will.
And I just don't know if Gavin Newsom'sthe right guy to pull off toughness.
It's hard to be kind of thisgood-looking kind of, well,
(13:22):
coiffed guy from Marin county allof a sudden be the tough guy.
>> Lee Ohanian (13:26):
Well, yeah, the tough guy who grew up with,
really, I mean, de facto,an enormous amount of privilege.
His early businesses were fundedby the Gettys because of his dad.
He had tremendous connections,including Chuck Schwab.
There's a sense in which heis not to be pejorative, but
(13:49):
he is as elitist as it gets.
And I'm not using the term elitistpejoratively, but he is part of that group
of people who are very, very wealthy,who make a lot of important decisions
regarding California politics, regardingCalifornia commerce, hiring, investment.
That is his circle.
And it's hard to seehim go on podcasts and
(14:11):
sort of be the secondcoming of Clint Eastwood.
Newsom, at the end of the day,I know, Bill,
I'm interested in whatyou think about this.
I mean, from my standpoint, politiciansare remembered by what they accomplish.
Newsom has always prided himselfon being a politician of ideas.
(14:32):
And that goes back to his timeas mayor in San Francisco.
I think perhaps his most strikingaccomplishment as mayor in
San Francisco what was it, the 4,000marriage licenses to same sex couples.
That proved to be far ahead of his time.
I mean, many states followed up on that.
I think he will be remembered for that.
(14:52):
But at the same time,as mayor of San Francisco,
he promised to end homelessness by 2014.
He had these kind of off the wall ideas.
I think I remember reading the SanFrancisco Chronicle about homeless meters.
They would be like parking meters,
except you would put yourchange into a homeless meter.
(15:14):
That would go to a nonprofitthat was serving the homeless or
those with substance abuse.
Politicians remember forwhat they actually implement.
It's not the ideas,it's what they actually achieve.
And what was it, 21 policy papers.
20 policy papers when hewas San Francisco mayor.
(15:34):
That's not what an Americanpolitician gets rewarded for,
it's what would you actually implement andwhat you actually achieve.
>> Bill Whalen (15:41):
Yeah, it's always a tricky thing in politics to try to steal somebody
else's act.
And so I thought that, well,if Donald Trump can go on social media and
just blast people all day long,why can't I do it, too?
Well, Trump, as we've seen for the pastdecade, now has a certain, shall we say,
Teflon about him now, granted, the JeffreyEpstein thing is testing the different.
Durability of that Teflon.
But Trump still gets away withstuff other politicians can't.
(16:04):
And this is the danger.
If you decide to play the samesocial media game as Trump.
You live by the sword.
There's a potential to die by the sword.
And by that,I mean you have these towel snapping,
snarky aides who are doing rapid response.
At some point,somebody's going to go too far.
A good example is Stephen Miller, theTrump aide who Newsom goes after as well.
Another example of punching downthe governor of California.
(16:25):
Why bother with the White House aide?
He's just small potatoes compared to you.
But Newsom's gone afterhim in very hard terms.
At some point it's going to come acrossas a threat and before you know it,
the Justice Department's going to belooking at your operation saying,
what are you doing as well?
So I just wish the governor would kindof throttle it back on the social media.
I understand the tough Persona.
(16:46):
I understand you want to play this game.
I know the Democraticprimary voters like it.
But for goodness sake, you're the governorof the largest state in America,
show a little dignity, sir.
>> Lee Ohanian (16:55):
Well, he's, he's six and a half years into being governor.
There's, there's not much time left.
You know, if you thought abouta signature achievement, I think he's,
I think he's still looking for that.
I do love the governor for, applaud thegovernor for the fact that he has helped
(17:16):
bring clean water to many rural,very, very poor communities.
That flies under the radarin a lot of media stories.
That's probably not going to bea signature achievement, but
all the potential signature achievements.
There was the Marshall Plan on housing,there was ending homelessness.
There was high speed rail.
There was just a laundry list of thingsthat were supposed to be achieved.
(17:40):
There's a year and a half left or so.
Let's hope that he kind ofgets to some of that and
makes some more headway because right now,just uncivil talking to anyone and
everyone who's beingcritical of California.
I just don't think it's helpingout Californians very much.
>> Jonathan Movroydis (18:01):
Lee, can we grade the governor's,
his legacy on each of thesepoints that you just raised?
Can he,can he right the ship on high speed rail?
Can he make lemming, you know,lemonade out of lemons or
it's too little, too late.
You know, you talked about the,the homelessness issue.
He Called it a moral issuethat we must confront.
In a state of the address,as you mentioned,
(18:23):
he declared a Marshall Plan on housing andpromised 3.5 million new homes by 2025.
On these two specifically,can he right the ship?
I mean, there was a recent announcementfor CEQA reform by the state legislature
and the idea that we can make thesereforms and speed up new housing.
There was a recent report over the pasttwo years homelessness actually went down
(18:45):
in California.
How can we rate Governor Newsom andcan he right the ship and you know,
run on any sort of accomplishmentsif he chooses to run in 2028?
>> Lee Ohanian (18:54):
Well, high speed rail is going to be very,
very difficult because rightnow we only have the focus for
high speed rail right now is on a, is onthe line between Bakersfield and Merced.
>> Bill Whalen (19:05):
Right.
>> Lee Ohanian (19:06):
The Inspector general, which is the,
which is the group who have oversight andaccountability responsibility for
California high speed rail have indicated,I believe the quote was
something like it will be unlikelythat it will be finished by 2033.
So best of case scenario is that,is that he leaves office in 2028 and
(19:32):
we're still a minimum of fiveyears away from high speed
rail on a line that no one ever voted for.
2008 was when we issuedthe 9.95 billion bond.
I was supposed to connectLA to San Francisco.
The regional completion did,I believe, was around 2020.
(19:54):
I believe the original budget forLA to San Francisco was $33 billion.
That in and of itself was a mistake topush on the taxpayers who voted for
that because that was quoted in $2008.
Not as, as I recall, not the dollars thatwould have to be paid out over time.
(20:18):
So what's happened is that the priceof high speed rail has enormously out.
I think in 2019, the governor saidin the state of the state speech,
he said, you know what,it was a fine idea, but we just don't
have the money to get from here to there,meaning LA to San Francisco.
(20:43):
But he said, but
you know, we can get from,we can get from Bakersfield to Merced and
you know there's just, just step back andthink about that for a second.
That line might cost 38 anda half billion dollars.
That's the upper end of estimates rightnow that the numbers are kind of 35 to
38.5 billion on a trip that's, you know,it's 160 miles, it's a two and
(21:07):
a half hour drive.
There's just not the demand,in my opinion,
there's just not the demand for that.
So at that time, that was hisfirst state of the state speech.
He had 62%, he had just wonthe governorship with 62% of the vote.
That was the time to have indicated toCalifornians that there are just so
many more capital investments,they're just so
(21:30):
much more pressing, so much moreimportant, so much more of a priority.
You name it.
Roads, bridges, dams, levees,fixing school, deferred maintenance,
billions of dollars indeferred maintenance issues.
So that was the time in my opinion, thatthe governor should have said, you know
(21:51):
what, this just isn't going, we'regoing to put this on the back burner.
We're going to take a, you know,we're not going to rush out anymore.
One of the issues with high speed railis it was just there was always a rush.
There was a rush to get the Obama,
the Obama stimulus funds,there was a rush to qualify for
additional federal funds fromthe Biden administration.
(22:16):
And part of the issues that we're seeingnow is that it just wasn't well conceived.
So I don't think that's notgoing to be a positive for him.
He did sign two bills that reformthe California Environmental Quality Act.
I applaud him for doing that.
Kind of in a nutshell, what those billsdo is reduce the environmental hurdles.
(22:37):
That is essentially for urban housing,urban development on infill,
which is either a vacant lot or,or an underutilized lot.
It doesn't really move the needle on CEQAfor, for suburban and rural developments,
which I think should have been done,but it was a good idea to, to do this.
(22:59):
Nevertheless, I don't think it's reallygoing to move the needle much in terms of
housing affordability.
And the simple reason,if you're building in San Francisco or
Los Angeles or San Diego,you're building anywhere on the coast.
It is just expensive.
It is just simply very, very expensive.
And you're looking at, you're lookingat single units that are going to cost,
(23:20):
you know, roughly 500,$600,000 a piece to build.
And the people that we're thinkingabout who are supposed to be able to
afford those homes, they're not goingto be able to afford those homes.
The only way to reduce housing costs andmake housing more affordable is to build
in areas where land is relativelyinexpensive, which is away from the coast,
(23:41):
and lever the efficiencies ofmanufacturing technologies and
modular homes and manufacture housing.
This sequel is overdue for reform, but
I do not expect this is really gonna movethe needle much in terms of housing costs.
>> Bill Whalen (23:55):
No, look, I'll give do some credit for getting something done.
Other governors have Struggledwith CEQA Democrats and
Republicans and fallen short,so he got something done.
So let's give him somecredit where credit's too.
You're right, Lee, though,it's, it's a start, but
it's not all that needs to be done.
Interestingly that you mentionedaffordability, one thing that California's
governor likes to do is he likes to bragabout California vis a vis red states.
(24:18):
In particular, I mentioned, for
example, he got into a slap fight withCongresswoman Nancy Mace over that.
So he dumped on her in South Carolinaby pointing out the superiority of
California.
And he cites things like, andI quote, lower homicide rates,
higher gdp, lower taxes forworking families.
So that's the kind of curious thingabout taxation in California, but
where California suffers.
Lee, is that word affordability?
(24:39):
U.S. news each year rates America's statestop to bottom in various categories,
one of which is so called opportunity,
which they define as economic opportunity,affordability and equality.
Lee, do you want to guess forCalifornia rates among the 50 states?
>> Lee Ohanian (24:55):
Yes, I'm close to the bottom, bill.
>> Bill Whalen (24:57):
I think 50th California is dead last in the nation in terms of
affordability.
And this is the problem.
Look, I travel in the summertimearound the country.
I go to South Carolina in particular,which we're gonna talk about in a minute.
The first thing that strikes you when yougo to the states in America is, my God,
it's cheaper here,gasoline in South Carolina is about $2.80.
The houses have one less zeroon them than California.
(25:20):
And the list goes on insurance andso on and so forth.
So it's an affordabilitything that dogs the governor.
But I want to go back to highspeed rail for a moment here.
The governor is now suingthe Trump administration,
the Transportation Department, forpulling back the $4 billion again.
I don't blame him, if I were the governor,I do the same thing.
It's like having a challenge in baseball.
(25:41):
Use the challenge if you get the moneyback, nothing to be lost there.
But the problem is when you talkabout high speed rail at all times,
it's the math that stands out.
Lee and Jonathan, this was a track.
Lee talked about the deadlinesthat have long been gone by.
This was a rail system that went from$33 billion, Lee, to $89 billion.
It's now at 128 and it doesn't cost less,it just costs more,
(26:02):
who knows in two years nowwhere it's gonna stand?
There's about $100 billion in fundingstill to be had and last I looked, there's
nobody out there who's gonna write a 12figure check to come bailout California.
And then you go inside the project itself,Lee, when it was first cooked up,
they estimated there wouldbe 55 million riders on it.
Amtrak gets 33 millionriders a year nationally, so
(26:25):
California's not going to have 55 million.
They estimated that the train, the ticketprices would be half that of an airline.
It just the math doesn't up.
And the problem for the governor, again,getting back to presidential aspirations,
it's just first glances at California andwhat are kind of apparent eyesores and
boondoggles and homelessness, which wetalked about as an obvious eyesore.
(26:45):
And this railroad juststands out as a boondoggle.
And it's really becoming tougher for
this governor to defend what isin many regards the indefensible.
>> Lee Ohanian (26:54):
Yeah. And Bill,
it's striking because I thought thathe had to use a bad baseball analogy,
they were waving the runner home and therewas no way the guy was gonna get called
out of home plate unless he stoppedhalfway between third base and home and
then said, I'm being waived, I better keepgoing, and then he was called out a third.
(27:16):
I think that's what the governordid in 2019 when he
acknowledged we've had a lot of brokenpromises, lots of cost overruns,
things haven't gonewell with this project.
Were not gonna continue on this path, fullstop, instead he said, Bakersfield Merced.
And when he saidBakersfield Merced in 2019,
(27:40):
I think the budget at thattime was I think around 16,
17 billion and now it's 35 to 38 billion.
Personally, I don't see it beingworth 16 to 17 billion because again,
it's a route that justdoesn't make any sense for
a high speed rail if that'sall you're going to do.
It's trend travel, you know it, for
(28:02):
decades it has beenthe fascination many Americans.
But Bill, would you believe me if Itold you that the intercontinental
railroad that connected Iowa to Ithink it was either San Francisco or
Oakland, I think roughlysomewhere between 1500-2000
(28:23):
miles was built in six years during,during the Civil War.
>> Bill Whalen (28:28):
Right. Including blasting through mountains,
blasting through mounds.
>> Lee Ohanian (28:31):
And not really known an awful lot about the topography or
you know, maps, not really allthat well developed at that time.
That was built in six years.
We, we started pursuing high speedrail over 30 years ago in terms
of commissions and plans.
I Mean, we just aren't the game, you know,we're just the game that couldn't shoot
straight when it comes to,when it comes to rail travel.
(28:53):
And California is nota walkable city kind of state.
And to think that people are going tohop on the train from Bakersfield and
go to Merced and hop off the train anddo whatever you do,
whatever you're thinking about.
The only way that would ever happen,in my opinion,
is if the price of a ticketwas just obscenely low.
(29:15):
And then you run into the issue of,well, you've spent-
>> Bill Whalen (29:18):
You're gonna have
an operating deficit.
>> Lee Ohanian (29:20):
You're gonna have it, yeah, significant operating deficit,
much less capital costs.
I would like to think that the governor,if he was thinking back, you know,
if he had some regrets,that that would be one of his regrets.
But, yeah,he's suing the Trump administration.
I, I'd be surprised that they'resuccessful largely because the, I mean,
the inspector general of the high speedrail is saying that, hey, you know what,
(29:43):
there's a huge funding issue, it'sprobably not going to be done by 2033.
And the federal Railroad Administrationis say, you know what,
we have to be on the lookout fortax dollars and we have to
make sure they're spent responsibly,and then high benefit projects.
And this is not looking like one of those.
And I just don't see how you'regoing to argue with that.
>> Bill Whalen (30:06):
Well, let's point out one bit of a high speed rail, Lee, you and
I write each week about California andeach year it sits there as a,
as a chestnut for us, forus to write about what a hot mess it is.
So we can count on that each year deliverfor us, but let's say Lee and Jonathan,
even if they somehow manage to buildthe so called Train to Nowhere,
the Versaille Bakersfield line, andsomehow magically $100 billion appears and
(30:27):
they somehow managed to build a linefrom Los Angeles to San Francisco.
You still have a failedproduct in this regard.
What do you do if you're in San Diego andwhat do you do if you're in Sacramento?
You're not on the system,you're off the grid.
>> Lee Ohanian (30:39):
Yeah, yeah, you're not on the, you're off the grid.
And Bill, you know,you indicated that, you know,
the world was anticipated to be quitedifferent from the perspective of 2008.
The railway plan, I think, envisioned apopulation of 50, 50 million in the state.
And I think we're somewherearound 39 million.
(30:59):
And with 50 million.
The idea was lax,would not have the capacity.
SFO would not have the capacity.
The Oakland Airport wouldnot have the capacity.
We would just be busting out at the seams,
what are we gonna do with theseadditional 11 million people?
You know, they haven't,you know, they haven't shown up.
So much less, much less remote work, muchless, you know, are we're doing zoom here.
(31:25):
All the technological innovationsthat have happened to,
in my opinion,reduce demand for rail travel,
including things like self driving cars,aren't that far into the future.
The big part of the benefits was supposedto be reducing carbon emissions.
But guess what, the governor signedan executive order a few years ago that
(31:46):
since has been overturned by the Senate,by Congress, and
signed by Trump about electric carmandates, just was a very different world.
Yeah, I wish it was different.
I wish the.
And interesting,the last thing I'll say about this bill,
the governor was having disagreementswith his own party about this.
Back in 2021, there was what, a 14 or16 month standoff between the governor and
(32:09):
the Assembly.
The, I believe the leader atthat time was Anthony Rendon.
He was saying, look, you know, we weresupposed to have this done in 2020.
What's happening with this?
We need to have some clarity.
And there's never any clarity about this.
How can we commit money when wecan't have a legitimate idea that is
going to be done on time andgoing to be done at a reasonable cost?
(32:31):
So it's been a mess.
>> Bill Whalen (32:34):
It is a final thought on it for the governor to now say that it's
a mess that should not go forward, he'snow opening up a kind of a very bad can
of worms fora Democratic candidate nationally.
I would, as a reporter, I'd say, okay,if you're going to say high speed rail is
a message to be taken down,what about the Biden plan for, you know,
the nationwide electric grid system andthe chargers?
What about that?
(32:55):
Should we stop doing that?
And the Democratic Party loves bigprojects, they love to kind of dream about
transforming society through rail andgreen energy and things like that.
And unfortunately,the dream doesn't match up to reality.
And California has become,unfortunately, a case study of that.
>> Jonathan Movroydis (33:11):
Gentleman, I should have noted in my question that the drop in
homelessness was actuallyin the city of Los Angeles,
not the greater state of California.
But I want to move on toour next question, Bill,
Governor Newsom was inSouth Carolina last week.
What was he doing there?
>> Bill Whalen (33:24):
Newsom's trip was kind of low key in this regard,
if you think ofSouth Carolina's diamond shape.
He was campaigning up at about 10 to11 o', clock, part of South Carolina,
which is rural.
He wasn't in a big media market likeGreenville or Columbia or Charleston.
He was working small towns.
But the point was to show that a,you know,
urban slick governor canconnect with rural people.
(33:46):
It's, you know, it wasn't made forattention by South Carolina standards.
It was kind of a B level trip,if you will.
The state party has a bigfundraising dinner each spring.
The governor did notgive the keynote there.
The keynote instead was delivered byWes Moore, the upcoming governor from
Maryland, who is my choice of kind ofa dark horse candidate for Democrats,
because I could see him kind of swoopingin the way Barack Obama did in 2008,
(34:09):
which I think would be frustrating forNewsom.
But These trips just kind ofthe national media like it.
The California media love to chew on it,but it doesn't really, you know,
move the needle back among locals.
In fact, it's urgency to see the reaction.
So one Democratic state senator said,well, you know, he's a good looking guy,
but geez Louise, I don't think the partyneeds a liberal from California to run.
(34:31):
And sure enough, he got blasted bythe local state GOP for coming in,
in particular the attorney general who'srunning for governor, who said that
basically Gavin Newsom could take all hisfailed California policies and go home.
And Lee, this is the problem forNewsom running moving forward.
If he's going to run for president, nomatter how many suitcases he brings with
him, he's always going to be carryingthe baggage of California as well.
(34:53):
And how he overcomes that perception ofCalifornia, I'm not so sure he puts out
the talking points about as being lowabout this, about or about that, but, boy,
it's very hard to undo perceptions aboutCalifornia as a place that's gone wrong.
>> Lee Ohanian (35:06):
Bill yeah, it's interesting.
The Republican Party has gone throughjust an enormous transformation the last
10 years.
I recall being part of a Hooverteam who was helping advise
Jeb bush in the 2016 election.
And we met in the late summer of 15,and I remember during a coffee break,
(35:26):
I was speaking with,with one of his political advisors.
I don't remember the individual's name,but he'd been in the RNC for a long,
long time, you know, very,very long track record in politics.
And I asked him, I said,you know, what about Trump?
And he said, Trump, not even a Republican.
Said he's old friends with Bill,old friends with Hillary, he's a Democrat,
(35:48):
he'll have His Andy Warhol 15 minutes andthat'll be it.
So fast forward andwe know what the history is.
And so whether people like Trump or not,he has reinvented the Republican Party.
And I think the Democratic Party is goingthrough its own transformation now.
(36:08):
Just go back to not even 30 years ago.
I think it was Clinton's 1996 Stateof the Union address where he spoke,
where he uttered those famous words,the era of big government is over.
He talked about school choice,he talked about welfare to work.
(36:28):
You know, he did deals with Newt Gingrich.
That's just not today'sDemocratic Party anymore.
And I think the Democratic Party'sgot to figure out, okay, well,
are we going to go with someonelike Alexandria Ocasio Cortez?
Are we going to go with someonelike Andy Bescher West Paul Gavin
isn't really either one of those,in my opinion.
(36:51):
I think he's trying to straddlethat world until there's a,
a clear signal about what the party wants.
But at the end of the day, in terms ofaccomplishments, the ads will be obvious.
The ads will be people onthe streets of San Francisco and
Los Angeles passed out on fentanyl.
They'll be, you know,there will be ads about crime,
(37:12):
there'll be ads about homelessness.
There'll be ads abouthousing affordability,
there will be ads about $32 billionpaid off in unemployment benefit fraud.
There's just going to be a longstring of failures within the state.
(37:33):
And not all of these are theresponsibility of, of Governor Newsom.
Many of them have been in place fora long, long time.
Homelessness, housingaffordability certainly have.
But he's going to, you know,he's going to be the bag man for that.
He's going to be who peopleare going to be pointing to.
And you know,he can talk all he wants about, well,
we're the fifth largest economy,the fourth largest economy.
(37:56):
India, by the way, is going tosurpass us at some point this year.
And he can talk about venture capital,he can talk about all sorts of things.
But at the end of the day, you just,you're not going to be able to unsee
those images of San Francisco andLos Angeles and the fires.
(38:16):
And again, not to blame the governor, butthat's what voters can be looking at.
And they're going to be,
a lot of them are going to beconnecting him with those dots.
>> Bill Whalen (38:26):
Yeah. You know,
if he does get traction as a presidentialcandidate, we should, by the way,
that poly market, the, the betting marketcame out some numbers the other day and
it's odds on favorite in 2028is Vice President Vance.
And then three Democrats stand out.
Newsom gets the most betsamong Democrats followed by,
I believe Pete Buttigieg and aoc.
Those are your three,I would argue probably go for
(38:48):
someone other than those three.
But let's, let's say Newsom does gettraction, that he's starting to click in
early states andthe poll numbers are looking good.
He's gonna get attacked, Lee and Jonathan,he's going to get attacked within his own
party because it won't justbe him running for president.
The governor of Illinois ishyper ambitious JB Pritzker.
He is a billionaire.
He could create some sort of independentgroup that would attack Newsom.
(39:10):
The governor of Michigan might run,the governor of Pennsylvania might run.
I mentioned the governor of Maryland and
the list goes on of otherDemocrats who might jump in.
Somebody is going to go after him andgo after his California record and
if I'm cutting the ad it's pretty simple.
There's a famous clip of Newsom on histrip to China last year I believe it was
Lee or the year before, and you'veprobably seen it he is on a basketball
(39:33):
court and he's goofing around a couple ofkids and he dribbles between his legs and
he decides he's left handed sohe starts dribbling to his left and
he just plows over a kid.
They both go tumbling to the groundI think that's your ad kind of
like John Kerry on a wind sail it'sGavin Newsom's fallen down on the job and
just kind of go after California that way.
So he's going to have to again this iswhy I mentioned the California baggage,
(39:55):
wherever he goes he's got toexplain California to conservative.
Conservative populations about why it'snot, you know, why it's not, you know,
progressivism, hell on, on steroids.
But to a skeptical Democraticaudience as to, you know,
what he's actually done as governor,does it really have the chops or not?
And I just think there'll be othergovernors competing in that space who want
to say that, you know, it's really ourstate, that's model, not California.
(40:18):
But you do raise an interesting point,Lee, Democrats.
I think kind of havingthis conversation or
at least agonizing onwhere the party goes.
Look at in a couple of months,the great city of New York City,
one of the great cities in the world,
might be electing as its next mayora 33 year old socialist Nepo baby.
So I'm not sure what this says aboutNew York or the Democratic Party, but
you know, it is a question about whatmodel they are looking at moving forward.
>> Lee Ohanian (40:42):
Yeah, that, that didn't provide me with an awful lot of clarity
about, about the Democratic Partybecause when you looked at that,
when you looked at who was running,that was in my opinion,
a very flawed slate of candidates who ran.
And it brings up two issues to me,one isn't there.
(41:05):
Why wasn't there a less flawed candidate?
And the second is you look atturnout in New York City and
what Mamdani was able to harnesswas despite the fact that turnout
was still very, very low, it,it surged among young people.
And I think that's,that's what put him over.
(41:26):
So Democratic Party's gonna kind of,you know,
they have a lot of stuff to figureout between now and now and 2028.
And I, I mean, my heart goesout to the people in New York.
I mean, maybe, maybe that young fellowwill become more of a pragmatist.
I certainly hope so because hecould make a big mess of things.
>> Bill Whalen (41:46):
Well, I will say this about him.
He believes what he believes.
I think he is authentic andhe says what he believes.
God help us all andGod help the good people of New York.
But this is another challenge for
the governor of California ashe moves forward presidentially.
It's a question of authenticity.
When he goes on podcasts, as you mentionedearlier, Lee, especially conservative
leaning podcasts, and he, and he startsissuing doubt about transgender sports.
(42:06):
And the latest one he did,he was very, very,
he was trying to show off thathe actually likes guns and, and
was bragging about shooting skills andthings like that.
I remember John Kerry running forPresident 2004,
thought it'd be a greatidea to put on camo and
start marching around the Midwest andpeople thought you look like Elmer Fudd.
This is stupid Newsom trying tocome across as a tough outdoorsman.
(42:28):
Getting back to yourClint Eastwood analogy, Lee,
it does kind of beg a question.
Who is this guy?
What does he actually believe?
>> Jonathan Movroydis (42:35):
Gentlemen, thank you for your time.
As always, this has been an hourof intriguing and timely analysis.
>> Bill Whalen (42:40):
Thank you, Jonathan.
Thank you, Lee.
>> Lee Ohanian (42:42):
Thanks guys.
>> Jonathan Movroydis (42:43):
You've been listening to matters of policy
and politics.
The Hoover Institution podcast devotedgovernance and balanced power here in
America and around the free world,please don't forget to rate, review and
subscribe to this podcastwherever you might hear it.
And if you don't mind,please spread the word.
Get your friends to have a listen.
The Hoover Institution has Facebook,Instagram and X feeds.
Our X handle is HVRinst,that's Hooverinst.
Bill Whalen is on X.
His handle is @BillWhalenCA.
(43:04):
Please visit the Hoover websiteat Hoover.org and sign up for
the Hoover Daily Report, where youcan access the latest scholarship and
analysis from our fellows.
Also check out California on youn MindMind, where Bill Whalen and Lee Ohanian
write every week, again, this is JonathanMovroydis sitting in Bill Whalen's chair.
This week he'll be back for anotherepisode of Matters, Policy and Politics.
Thank you for listening.
>> Speaker 4 (43:22):
This podcast is a production of the Hoover Institution,
where we generate andpromote ideas, advancing freedom.
For more information about our work,to hear more of our podcasts or
view our video content,please visit hoover.org.
Popular Podcasts
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
The Joe Rogan Experience
The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.