May 1, 2025 • 55 mins
Donald Trump’s first 100 days since returning to office have been prolific – the most executive orders issued in the early days of a presidency – and seemingly in a constant state of political turbulence.
What do the polls indicate about Trump’s performance to date? David Brady and Douglas Rivers, Hoover Institution senior fellows, and Stanford University political scientists, discuss how various policy choices – tariffs, immigration enforcement, legal imbroglios – have affected Trump’s approval, plus where a struggling Democrat Party stands as both parties ponder a midterm election still 550 days ahead.
Recorded on April 30, 2025.
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[MUSIC]
>> Bill Whalen (00:03):
It's Wednesday, April 30, 2025.
And welcome back to Matters of Policy andPolitics, a Hoover Institution podcast
devoted to governance and balance of powerhere in America and around the world.
I'm Bill Whalen.
I'm the Virginia Hobbs CarpenterDistinguished Policy Fellow in
Journalism here at the Hoover Institution.
I'm not the only fellowwho's podcasting these days.
I suggest you go to our website,which is hoover.org podcast and
(00:24):
see who all is talking ideas these days.
We do great podcasts.
We just cover the waterfront and policy.
It's good.
So today we're gonna talkabout the Trump presidency,
where it stands now that it's pastthe magical Mythical 100 100-day mark,
which for those of you not familiarwith American politics, is catnip for
punditry in terms of assessinghow a presidency is going.
(00:45):
I will begin this podcast bysaying that this is an unusual
presidency in several regards.
First of all, it's the first time sincethe 1890s that America has had a president
in a second but non-consecutive term.
You have to go back to Grover Clevelandin the 1890s for that.
It's a presidency that hitthe ground running in unusual ways.
Donald Trump having having signed 140 plusexecutive orders in his first 100 days
(01:07):
that easily topped the old record whichwas Franklin Roosevelt back in 1933.
He signed 99.
It's also a presidency that is unusuallyturbulent by compared to other non Trump
presidencies.
I should qualify.
To me, gentlemen, it's proof ofNewton's third law of motion.
What did Newton write?
Quote, for every action there isan equal and opposite reaction.
(01:28):
I say that because while Trump hasdone over 140 executive orders,
those executive orders haveprompted over 217 lawsuits to date.
One other unusual aspectof the Trump presidency,
he has signed just five bills intolaw since coming into office.
That's a new record, a new low.
George W Bush held the previous recordwith only seven signed in 2001.
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So Trump having signed fiveis the new standard for that.
So what to make for all of this, I turn totwo of the smartest people I know when it
comes to matters of politics and publicopinion, and that's my Hoover colleagues,
David Brady and Doug Rivers.
Dave Brady is the Hoover Institution'sDavies family Senior Fellow Emeritus and
the Bowen H and Janice Arthur McCoyprofessor of Political Science at
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Stanford's Graduate School of Business.
Doug Rivers is a Hoover Senior Fellow anda Stanford University Political scientist.
He's also the Chief Scientist at YUGA plc,a global polling firm, which means that
Doug is out there in the trenches and theweeds and the great beyond at all times,
trying to assess what the publicthinks of this presidency.
Gentlemen, thanks so much forcoming on the podcast.
Seems like we just hadan election a few days ago.
>> Douglas Rivers (02:30):
Seems like forever ago to me.
>> Bill Whalen (02:32):
So let's begin.
Doug, I want to turn to you.
I spent some time goingthrough YouGov's website and
you do an excellent job at archives,by the way congratulations.
It's relatively idiot proof.
An idiot like me.
And let me throw some polling data at you,Doug.
I looked up Trump in 2017when he came to office.
(02:53):
This is the Trump 10 presidencyon January 30, 2017.
And Doug, I picked that date becauseyou had numbers for him on January 20.
But I thought it best maybe to see ifthere's any movement between the 20th and
the 30th, given his rather startlingAmerican Carnage inaugural address that
maybe you remember or not.
So on January 30, 2017, Doug, I haveDonald Trump with a 45.5% approval rating.
(03:15):
You move forward to May 1, which is aboutthe 100 day mark of that presidency.
He's at 43.6%.
So it's about a 2 point percent drop.
A curious thing, by the way,
and I recommend people go to YouGov'swebsite and look at this as well.
It's fascinating, Doug,
how Trump's numbers are relativelyconsistent through four years in office.
It's just almost likea straight line look.
40s approval and low 50s disapproval.
(03:37):
It never shoots up one way orthe other that much.
Now let's turn to Trump 2o, Doug.
January 27th of this year,Donald Trump's approval rating is 50%.
His disapproval is at 45 8%.
Trump on March 31st, the same numbers,pretty much 50% approval,
Doug, 45.8% disapproval.
(03:58):
Then we have Liberation Day,Wednesday, April 2nd.
And now we have him past 100 day marks.
So I turn to you, Doug, tell us whereDonald Trump stands chance right now.
>> Douglas Rivers (04:08):
So last week we reported that Trump's popularity
approval rating had dropped to 41%.
And in the poll releasing today,it's at 42%,
which is well within normalstatistical variation.
So this is the biggest move down forTrump,
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basically a close to 10 pointmove in the last month that
we've seen since he camedown the escalator in 2016.
So this is a significant change.
The way I look at it is Trumpstarted his second administration
(04:52):
much Higher than he was at the timeof his first administration.
The same way that his vote was almost 50%,
49.8%, right.
So Trump did start froma higher point this way around.
But I think what we've seen is thatTrump acted like he won a 55 or
(05:16):
60% margin and the degree ofoverreach is catching up with him.
The first month ortwo of the administration,
the level of activity appealed to hisbase and independents thought we're
getting a strong act of president,which is quite a contrast from Biden.
But over the last month, we've descendedinto what most people think is
(05:40):
a chaotic world with two-thirds ofthe voters saying the country is out
of control at this point,including nearly half of Republicans.
>> Bill Whalen (05:49):
So the question to you and Dave is what caused the 10 point drop off?
Is it something.
>> David Brady (05:55):
I've been told.
>> Bill Whalen (05:56):
Something specific he did?
That's why I mentioned Liberation Day andthe tariffs.
Is it a combination ofrepeated things he did?
They're all executive orders.
And how much of this is policy versushow much is driven by personality?
>> David Brady (06:07):
I'm gonna go a little bit in the first part of the policy.
I've been tracking not justTrump's approval rating,
overall approval, but by issues.
And I thought the most important issue,
the one I thought that helped him the mostin the 2024 election, was inflation.
On the approval rating, he's down,as Doug points out, he's down low.
(06:28):
But most of the action is amongindependents on the overall job approval.
So Democrats didn'tlike him to start with.
Republicans did a little fall off there,but the big falloff is among independents.
On inflation, however,
that's the one place where on inflationRepublicans have, there's about
a 10-point drop on Republicans sayingthat he's doing a good job on that.
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But among independent,it's been very strange.
And the gap, there's in general a gapbetween if you're a maga, Republican,
Doug has us asked in the surveyswhether you're a maga,
meaning are you a strong Trump supporter.
And the MAGA supporters,[COUGH] 65% of them, as opposed to 40% of
regular Republicans, think that theeconomy is getting stronger, not worse.
(07:19):
They approve of the tariffs,they approve of inflation.
It's the Republicans whodon't answer the question.
They're maga.
They're the ones thatsupport us fallen off more.
But still he's the base ofthe part the party overall,
it's about 85% still approveof the job he's doing.
>> Douglas Rivers (07:39):
Yeah, so in the 2024 election,
inflation was clearly the mostimportant issue, and it still is.
If you ask people what'sthe most important issue,
79% say inflation was very important,and 96% say it was very important or
Somewhat important,which is higher than any other issue.
(08:03):
This is the issue that killedthe Biden administration,
that Biden never recovered fromthe inflation in 20, 22 and 23.
Trump had a huge advantage oninflation at the time of the election.
Basically close to plus20 points on that issue.
(08:26):
Right now, 57% of the public disapprovesof the way he's handling inflation.
They elected him to come in andreduce prices, get a good economy.
And the tariff policy, you know,
threatens clear increase inprices that people will pay.
(08:48):
And it's very unpopular so far.
We haven't actually seenan increase in prices.
This is something that's on the horizon.
So this threatens the entiresecond Trump administration.
If they don't get this under control,they're in deep trouble and it's not going
to work to do essentially what Biden did,which is say it's, it's not so bad.
(09:13):
Who are you going to believe,me or your lying eyes?
>> Bill Whalen (09:17):
Now, is it strictly economics to blame here?
Majority economics.
What role does foreignpolicy play into this, Doug?
Cuz he did promise coming to officesaying he would end the Ukraine war on
the first day or.
>> Douglas Rivers (09:27):
Well, he now says that was in jest.
I think the foreign policyside is something that is,
has a much weaker effectwith the public at large.
His Ukraine policy is not terriblypopular, but it's on the order of,
of I think six orseven points negative, not 20 points.
(09:51):
And people weren't voting inthe 2024 election on foreign policy.
It was much more inflation.
And a close second was immigration.
Immigration is the issuein which they're minus six,
I believe, this week on immigration,which is an issue that,
again, was up 20->> Bill Whalen: It's down six points on
immigration?
>> David Brady (10:12):
Yes, that's a yes.
>> Bill Whalen (10:14):
Okay.
>> David Brady (10:15):
I do want to say on that foreign policy that I agree
with everything Doug said, butI do think that in terms of policy,
the long term consequences of the foreignpolicy are perhaps more important
because the question of what do ourallies, what a Canada, what a Mexico,
what are the European Union,what a NATO, to what extent are they,
(10:39):
to what extent can they in the long haultrust the United States commitments?
I think that's, that's going to be a moreand more important question over time.
>> Douglas Rivers (10:50):
Yeah, I mean, we're political hacks here and
obviously what happens in foreignpolicy is incredibly consequential
to Americans, but it's not topof mind to voters at the moment.
I'd like to correct one thing.
He's minus one in inflation,not minus six.
>> Bill Whalen (11:08):
Minus one, okay, I wanna go back to immigration for a second,
because this would seem to be an areawhere he could take a victory lap in
this regard.
If you look at the border right now,he has brought the border under control,
as promised.
But, gentlemen, is the problem that whathe's done on the border overshadowed by
the drama of the gentlemandown in El Salvador and
the lawsuits going on right now?
(11:30):
I think I mentioned 217 lawsuits.
I think 60 of those lawsuitsrelated to immigration policy.
So is it a case of him doingtoo much on immigration,
perhaps not focusingthe public on the one you.
>> David Brady (11:42):
Think back to the first term people were for him on immigration,
but then when they split the families,it makes a difference how you do it.
>> Bill Whalen (11:51):
Right. >> David Brady
I think what's hurt him on immigrationis the pictures of hurting people
in the lawsuits bring up the pointthat even if you want them deported,
they do have some rightsbefore they're deported.
And the guy in El Salvadorthat's been put there illegally,
Trump today said he wasn'tgonna bring him out.
(12:14):
So I think it's more the style that'saffecting the immigration issue.
>> Douglas Rivers (12:19):
The public supports restrictions on immigration,
deporting people who are here illegally,especially if they're convicted of crimes.
I think what they're getting at the momentis more than they bargained for.
You know, soput ICE people on the streets,
taking away people whoaren't violent criminals,
(12:43):
sending someone mistakenly to maximumsecurity prison in El Salvador,
talking about doing the sameto American citizens.
That is overreach.
If Trump showed restraint on this,
I think his position on immigrationwould be pretty strong.
But I don't really thinkthat's in his wheelhouse.
>> Bill Whalen (13:07):
So he has given the Democrats ample talking points when
it comes to immigration and
ample talking points in generalabout management of the presidency.
But gentlemen,from just a data standpoint,
from what you're looking at polling,where is the Democratic Party right now?
Are they gaining it all from Trump?
>> Douglas Rivers (13:24):
No, they're not gaining at all.
In fact,
the Democratic Party is less popularthan the Republican Party at the moment.
So in our latest poll, we haveDemocrats at 36% favorable rating and
55% unfavorable,whereas Republicans are 40%
favorable and I think 52% unfavorable.
(13:48):
The problem for the out party is theydon't have one person speaking for them.
And the people they do have speaking forthem,
like Chuck Schumer,are not that effective communicators.
I think it remains to be seen howthe more leftist firebrands like
Bernie Sanders and aoc,who are more effective communicators but
(14:13):
are too far left forlarge fractions of the American public.
So it's the usual problem of an out party.
But so far, if the Democrats are countingon Trump's unpopularity to save them,
I don't think it's goingto work in the short run.
>> David Brady (14:30):
Happened in 2018.
It wasn't that the Democratssuddenly got more popular.
It was they didn't likewhat Trump was doing.
And Covid, I think the Democratsdon't need to be liked to win
the House of representatives in 2026.
I don't think they're goingto win the Senate, but.
But that's always the out party,as Doug says.
(14:50):
But I don't think theyneed to be popular to win.
They're the alternative.
>> Bill Whalen (14:56):
This is an interesting strategic question we should talk about
and tied into your poll.
So you have competing schools ofthought within Democratic circles.
There is the James Carville school ofthinking, which is kind of Napoleonic.
Don't get in the way of the enemywhen the enemy is destroying himself.
In other words, lay low and
voters will punish the Republicansin the midterms in 2026.
Conversely, you have someonelike Illinois Governor J.B.
(15:17):
pritzker going to New Hampshire lastweekend and saying, we've got to go in
the streets, literally, and take intothe streets and march and fight back.
So an activist approach.
But Doug, is there anything withinthe data that you have in front of you
that suggests that there's one way orother that Democrats are leading?
Are they happy being passive ordo they want a fighter?
>> Douglas Rivers (15:36):
Well, the Democratic base is relatively unhappy.
So the low ratings that the Democratsare getting on favorability are due
primarily to Democrats not being asfavorable towards the Democratic Party
as Republicans are towardsthe Republican Party.
I think there's a balancebetween being passive,
(15:56):
which the base doesn't like, and in fact,
voters want someone that saysthey're going to fix things and
taking unpopular fringepositions on issues.
So the challenge for Democrats is the 2024
election showed a shrinkingof the Democratic base.
(16:19):
And so they need to appeal tothe voters they've been losing,
some of whom are minorities,some of whom are, you know,
younger white males, and large numberof which are not left wingers.
>> David Brady (16:36):
I agree with that.
And looking at this issue over time,the problem for
the Democrats has been they win elections,when they win the moderate vote.
And the Democratic Party has someadvantage on that because they're a little
more heterogeneous in the sensethat if you look at Democrats,
(16:56):
about 60 to 65% are liberal orvery liberal, but 30, 35% are.
They say,they're a moderate to conservative.
And most independents whoswing elections are moderates.
So I agree with Doug,you've got to appeal that base.
But that is not.
When you lose, as the Democrats didin 2024, that's the sign on the left.
(17:18):
The view is, why did we lose?
We lost because we weren't liberal enough,we weren't progressive enough.
If we just get more progressive,that's aoc, that's Bernie.
My view is that's a dead sure loser.
I just went back andlooked at elections from Obama.
I mean, sorry,from 2004 through the election.
And the moderate Democrats, when Democratswin moderates, they win elections.
(17:42):
When they don't win moderates,they lose elections.
And pretty much the same is true forRepublicans.
But anyway, that's the issue.
My view is the action's in the middle.
You can get to the middle, you can win.
>> Bill Whalen (17:55):
So if you're a Democratic strategist,
you could look at 2026 in two ways andprobably shame on us.
We're talking about 2026.
It's what, 550 days away?
But why not?
You could either just say, okay,it's a pure anti-Trump campaign,
just make it against Trump, oryou could try another line or
maybe add the line of attack, which isit's a do nothing Republican Congress.
(18:15):
I mentioned that Trump has triedonly five bills so far in the law.
But, Doug, if you go down the do nothing,
that begs the question of what it isthat the public wants done right now.
>> Douglas Rivers (18:25):
Yeah, so the first thing the public wants is a good economy,
and everyone's in favor of that.
So you can essentially run that sortof race as a satisfying your base in
the middle.
At the same time, I think the,you know, the challenge here for
Democrats is they had issuesthat were structurally bad.
(18:48):
When you are worried about inflation,
usually the Democrats are notthe people you go to for reassurance.
If you're worried about the border,that's an issue Republicans have owned.
The best thing that Democratscan do on those issues is
essentially let Trump hurtthe Republican brand on those,
(19:08):
which I think he hasdefinitely done on inflation.
Losing a plus 20 issue to a minus20 in a matter of weeks is
a colossal political failure.
Immigration is one where Democratsneed to convince voters that
they're willing to be tough onimmigration, but not crazy.
(19:30):
You know, Trump has given them an openingon that that they otherwise didn't have.
>> David Brady (19:35):
I, I think the right strategy for the Democrats given that
they're going to have these disputesbetween the left and the center.
Think AOC andVerney versus Abigail Spanberger,
the former congresswoman from Virginia.
I think that the best thingthe Democrats could do in 2026
would be to follow Garfield andmake the campaigns local,
(19:58):
get money, choose good candidates,get the set of races.
We all know what the setof races are going to be.
They're going to turn the House andget good candidates in those cases and
make the case at the local level.
I don't think without a candidate,I don't see how the Democrats try and
put forward a unified front otherthan we won't do what he did.
>> Bill Whalen (20:20):
Doug, I remember back in the 1980s it was popular to talk about
so-called, Mommy Daddyissues in Politics and
that voters gravitated towardDemocrats on so-called mommy issues.
That would be education, that would behealth care, kind of comforting matters.
Voters would gravitate towardRepublicans on daddy issues,
which would be money, which wouldbe defense, which would be crime.
Is that, does that matrix still hold up orhas it been changed over the past?
>> Douglas Rivers (20:43):
Yeah. Wow.
How has the world changed?
>> David Brady (20:45):
How has the world changed 30 seconds or less.
>> Douglas Rivers (20:49):
The most amazing thing is on Russia.
The Republican base now that nearly
half of which think Russiais friendly to us, right?
Whereas, Democrats are havea renewed sense of being cold
warriors on foreign policy.
>> David Brady (21:08):
And free trade.
And free trade.
They're big on free trade too.
>> Douglas Rivers (21:11):
Yes, free trade is another one that is now a left wing issue.
>> Bill Whalen (21:16):
What about Israel?
>> Douglas Rivers (21:17):
Well,
Republicans are much stronger supportersof Israel than Democratic base.
And this is a problem is sympathy for
Palestine is not popularexcept in left wing circles.
>> David Brady (21:33):
You mean like universities?
No, I agree.
>> Douglas Rivers (21:35):
Yeah, that's true.
>> David Brady (21:37):
Yeah, it's absolutely true.
>> Douglas Rivers (21:41):
I mean Kamala Harris tried to thread the needle on that which
is saying that our Support forIsrael is unwavering, but
that doesn't mean we don't thinkPalestinians should be treated fairly.
But that insofar as that issue mattered,which I kind of doubt for
the election, for it was too,too complicated and hard to explain.
>> Bill Whalen (22:06):
I wanna shift now and
talk about the state of the twoparties in America right now.
So what did Trump do on hishundredth day in office?
The answer is that he hoppedon board Air Force One, and
he flew from Andrews to Michigan.
He went specifically to Warren,Michigan, which for
those who are not familiar withMichigan is just north of Detroit.
This is automobile country in America.
(22:27):
This made a lot of sense for them do,given that Michigan was an important
state forhim in terms of getting back into office.
Also, he had earlier that day signeda couple of executive orders which
are trying to throttle back on terror ofthe auto manufacturers like Ford and GM.
So smart politics to go there,take a victory lap for 100 days and
say what he's doing with the OD industry.
But there's another side to this story aswell when it comes to war in Michigan.
(22:50):
So Trump spoke at Macomb CommunityCollege, which is the same school where
Ronald Reagan once upon a time utteredthe famous words, I didn't leave my party,
my party left me.
This was Reagan referring tothe fact that he once upon a time
was a Harry Truman Democrat.
But he, over the years,he changed because.
Not because he changed, butbecause the Democrats did.
Now, in the 1960s, Warren was a Democraticstronghold in Michigan, but by 1980,
(23:14):
it had become staunchly Republican,a very decidedly Republican suburb.
The year after Reagan's reelection,a Democratic pollster, maybe Doug,
knows him, a buddy of his,Stanley Greenberg, Stan Greenberg,
goes to Warren to figure out whatthe heck is going on with his party.
And he looks around, andhere's what he discovers.
A lot of disaffected,conservative white Americans.
(23:34):
And why are they disaffected?
They feel like everythinghas let them down.
They feel like the system has failed them.
The economy has let them down.
Their elected officialshave let them down.
They don't likethe country's social drift.
And Mr. Greenberg comes up witha phrase for these people.
He calls them Reagan Democrats.
So question, gentlemen.
Long time sinceRonald Reagan was in office.
Ronald Reagan did spawnthe Reagan Democrat.
(23:56):
Ronald Reagan did changethe political map,
especially when you look at howread the south is right now.
But let's put today in a context,Iif you look at this Dave,
you're writing a book on this.
Explain how things differ between Reagan'stime and Trump's time when it comes to
going to Michigan and appealing to the socalled Reagan Democrat.
>> David Brady (24:15):
I certainly want to recommend a book on this, no kidding,
I just finished,it's called From Dominance to Parody.
And it's the story of if you combineparty identification with ideology,
hopefully it tells you somethingabout American politics.
But the answer to the first question iswhat happened to those Reagan Democrats,
they're Republicans.
(24:35):
In 1980, 40% of people who were selfidentified conservatives were Democrats.
By 1992-94,that number had dropped dramatically, and
that party sorting has continued over timeand it leads to polarization, obviously.
So at the present time, there's TheRepublicans are 75 to 80-81% conservative,
(25:02):
very conservative withabout 15-18% moderate.
And the Democrats are,as I mentioned earlier, about 65, 35, and
once the parties are sorted like that,you get these differences,
it makes elections much closer.
And when elections are close like that,any reason or
ability to compromise between the parties,that's diminished.
(25:28):
So you get, so you get this polarizedbattle which is a result of this
long sorting process thatbegan with Ronald Reagan.
>> Douglas Rivers (25:36):
I think it began before Reagan, but yes,
it certainly grew to the point wherethose groups were swing voters and
now they are firmly Republican voters.
So a state like Michigan, Democrats win byracking up big margins in Ann Arbor and
(25:57):
the suburbs in the center of Detroit, but
auto workers are no longer a greatconstituency for Democrats.
>> David Brady (26:08):
I want to say Doug's right,
it did start before that the actions.
There was some in the 60syou got in the south,
there were some people who moved Democrat.
But still,even as late as the 90s, even 90s,
Bill Clinton could take Southern borders,so you could take half of them.
(26:28):
But the right point there,it started earlier,
but it exacerbated during the Ring.
And the other point is a lot of peoplemake the claim, well, that was just
the South, what happened was it's justrace, that's absolutely not true.
In this book we examined lots of datafrom Gallup, from stuff Doug got for
(26:52):
us and other stuff, andacross the board among young people,
white people, old people,Southerners, every region.
Republicans gained at the expense ofDemocrats because conservative people who
said they were conservative and had beenDemocratic were moving to the Republicans.
(27:13):
It was not a Southern Regional phenomenon,
it was a phenomenon ofconservatives across the country.
And I think now isn't it the case,Doug, that they're either dead even or
they're a few 1 or 2% more Republicans now>> Douglas Rivers: So
in January of this year wehad Republicans with 2%
(27:35):
advantage over Democrats,which never ever happened,
even under the height ofthe Reagan administration.
I'd say one other thing hereis a big change is Democrats
can squeak to a national victoryby winning the blue wall and
(27:58):
possibly making some inroads inplaces like Georgia that were for
30 years out of after essentially Clinton,
no Democrats won any southern state.
But for Democrats to win a real majority,
that is the kind of thing that would giveyou control of both houses of Congress.
(28:22):
They need to win in some places wherethey really aren't yet competitive.
You know, so the Texas is, the Floridas,
you need to be able to win aroundthe edge of the red states.
And there are just so many placeswhere Democrats used to win in these
(28:45):
relatively unpopulated states thatfigure importantly in the Senate
that make the Senate structurallya real problem for Democrats.
I agree >> Douglas Rivers
Indiana or Iowa or Ohio, places whereDemocrats used to be very competitive and
are hardly competitive these days.
>> Bill Whalen (29:06):
Yeah, that's a great point David and
I were talking about this earlier,a lot of people already projecting ahead.
They're saying, okay, Democrats,you look at the map right now,
you look at the way House lines up rightnow, it would seem it's pretty easy for
Democrats to pick up the House.
Not too many seats they have to gain,this president struggling right now,
especially on the economy, solet's assume Democrats pick up the House.
But you look at the Senate right now andRepublican Democrats would have to pick up
(29:30):
four seats, I believe if they have 53,but now they got pick up four.
You look up that 2026 map and it's hardto find four seats unless there's really
an aberration race I mentioned.
>> Douglas Rivers (29:40):
Well, they would have to pick up seats in places like Florida or
Ohio, which are open now, somewhatunexpectedly, those are not impossible.
But things have to go pretty far south forRepublicans.
>> Bill Whalen (29:54):
Florida's fascinating when you look at just how the party
registration has changed in that state,it's now a Republican operation.
But I get back to this because you projecthere into 2027, you have people saying,
well look, there are already articles ofimpeachment filed in the Senate against
and the in the Congressagainst Trump in the House.
So Democrats get back in the House,so they're going to impeach them,
you take the scenario step further.
(30:15):
You can impeach them, they've doneit twice, they'll do it again, but
it goes to the Senate, andhere's the problem, 53 Republicans.
Let's say the Senate breaks even forDemocrats and Republicans and
still 5347 the split.
Doug, you're going to have to find 20Republican senators who presumably are not
running for re election tovote to convict Donald Trump.
>> Douglas Rivers (30:33):
I think someone said last week we tried impeachment before and
it died in the Senate.
I think they would be well advisednot to take up impeachment
until there's some Republican votes forit.
>> David Brady (30:49):
I don't understand, you can lead a horse to water, but
occasionally the horse willget an idea and maybe drink.
Congress hasn't gotten it, they didn'tget it with Clinton, they didn't get it,
it's just, it strikes me as incredible.
If they would have done something,pass an act of censure on Clinton, for
example, that would have passed.
(31:11):
But the idea that you're going to getimpeachment and that it's useful,
that's, that's the,in my view, that's the left
in the Democratic Party still believingthat that's possible and it's not.
It appeals to their base, butthe middle, I think the middle is just,
they're tired of it, it just doesn'tmake any, it's not going to happen.
>> Bill Whalen (31:31):
Yeah. Well,
this podcast I was listening to,it said, well, they could impeach him.
And what they might try to impeach him onis how he is trying to financially benefit
from things going on.
For example, you, for CBS and otherentities to give money to your library and
so forth, so maybe make that impeachable.
>> David Brady (31:44):
I mean, you haven't bought any of those family things.
>> Bill Whalen (31:47):
No, but I just get back to the one thing, you're gonna have to find
20 votes to impeach him, andthis ties into your polling data.
He just, his numbers don't moveamong Republicans much, do they?
>> David Brady (31:56):
Think of it like this, think of what Mitch McConnell just said.
About Trump in hisbiography wasn't kind and
he voted not to impeach him.
>> Bill Whalen (32:07):
And where's Mitch McConnell headed?
Retirement.
>> David Brady (32:10):
Yeah.
>> Douglas Rivers (32:11):
To be replaced by someone that's going to be more pro Trump
than him.
>> Bill Whalen (32:16):
That's a good point.
So let's go back to Michigan for a second.
So Trump won it the two times that he won,he lost it the one time he lost.
Joe Biden won it the one time he won.
Hillary Clinton lost it,Barack Obama won it twice, I believe.
So what, Doug, was there any differencebetween how Obama went about Michigan
versus how Biden went about Michigan?
Because I want to talkabout moving forward and
(32:38):
how Democrats can revisit Michigan andPennsylvania in these states.
We did a Goodfellows episodethe other day with ronna,
Congressman from 17 congressionaldistrict, California, Silicon Valley.
He's very big about going into redstates and trying to revitalize them.
He wants a Marshall Plan for red states,bring in a lot of venture capital,
a lot of government.
>> David Brady (32:57):
What do you mean red states are doing better than blue states?
What is he talking about?
Is there texas in California?
Well, what Texas is not,Texas is gaining jobs,
people lean in California to go to Texas.
>> Bill Whalen (33:08):
He's looking more.
He's looking upper Midwest andRust Belt, and
it's kind of what George Bushfamously said in 1992.
Remember message I care.
He wants to show Democratscare what's going on here.
But getting back to this, Doug, you talkedabout stitching together coalition.
So has, how much has the coalitionchanged since Obama's days?
>> Douglas Rivers (33:24):
All right, so
probably the most significant is thatObama generated very high turnout and
enormous margins among minorities,and those have slipped.
So, you know, the arithmetic fora Democratic win in one of these
states is there aren't enoughsuburban educated voters.
(33:46):
You have to not only win them andwin very big majorities among,
you know, your college student andyour minority base,
you have to do decently in rural areas.
And that's where Democraticsupport has collapsed since 2012.
>> David Brady (34:05):
Let's not forget that in 2008, when Obama was elected,
as you recall, we had had quite a crisisunder a Republican administration.
And Obama, the Democrats, seems to me,was going to win whoever it was,
because I remember McCain,a great man, but he said,
you know, economics, I didn'treally pay much attention to that.
(34:29):
He hadn't, and sothen he squeaked by the second time.
Obama squeaks by.
It's much narrower than the first time,which even by,
by 20th century standards,that 53% he got was.
That wasn't a landslide,>> Bill Whalen: right?
>> Douglas Rivers (34:45):
Yeah. So Obama won North Carolina,
Indiana and Iowa.
And you know, those are states that arevery tough for Democrats at the moment.
>> Bill Whalen (34:58):
Well, that's what's interesting here.
The water is recessed from 28 to 2012.
But Dave, let's get back to what you'retalking about in your book the period of
American history.
It seems analogous,
here would be the late 19th centurythat I mentioned with Cleveland.
Why?
Because you had a series of oneterm presidencies for one thing.
It's just, you know,some by accident, some by plan.
What Garfield dies in office,Chester Arthur serves out his term.
(35:20):
Then I guess what Cleveland wins andthat he loses to Harrison,
the Cleveland comes back.
So that's a whole series.
>> David Brady (35:26):
You're absolutely right.
That's very good to figure out, so.
>> Bill Whalen (35:32):
You have the one term presidencies, but
then you have volatility in Congress,which we've seen.
>> David Brady (35:36):
Yes, >> Bill Whalen
compare, contrast the two and
let's talk about where we thinkthis sorting out is going.
Well, I think, I mean what happened?
That's right.The two periods that are most unstable
are the One you met 1874, 1896,when the Republicans won everything and
held control for14 years until 1910 and then Wilson.
(36:00):
But the point that you have to,the point you have to remember
about that is that those two periodsare driven by ultimately globalization.
The first period was a periodof intense globalization,
the United States went froma agricultural to industrial power.
(36:20):
We moved up from not being very bigindustrially to either leading, or
the next to Britain, the next best biggestcountry and in the United this time.
And that was only about 35% of the world.
>> Bill Whalen (36:32):
Right.
>> David Brady (36:32):
In this present period which begins the industrial.
The globalization of the world bringsabout the same kind of instability and
the same kinds of issues.
If you think about it,there's the issue of immigration,
which is really big in the 1890s,there's the issue of foreign policy,
the sorts of things they talked about.
There's the issue of money,there was a gold versus silver issue,
(36:56):
the parallels are quite intense.
And while that is a big issue,
it is the case that globalizationdrives these issues.
Think about populism, what happened, thejobs went to China, et cetera, et cetera.
It was the Midwest gets hollowed out.
In the 1890s.
The same thing was the farms werebeing hollowed out as people moved to
the cities.
(37:16):
So it's a big complicated issue,it's not just the United States.
If you look across Europe, there'smovements in France, movements, five star
movement In Italy, there's a movement,there's movement in the Netherlands.
All of these populous things are comingabout because the global, the base,
the manufacturing base and
all these countries has sort of goneas you move to this globalization.
(37:39):
It's big, a big issue,butt I do think that's what drives it,.
>> Douglas Rivers (37:44):
Yeah, it is a complicated issue because the parties,
and particularlythe parties in Congress and
elites have been much more freetraders than the public at large.
And so, you had a case whereboth the Democratic and
(38:04):
Republican elites were more profree trade than their basis.
And then over,since the financial crisis of 2008, nine,
you know, the public has definitelymoved to being anti trade,
which Trump was the perfect fit for.
I think we are potentially seeinga swing back in the other direction.
(38:28):
Trump has made the Democratic Party asfree trade as it's ever been in its entire
history.
>> David Brady (38:36):
I agree with Doug and
one good point about that is you thinkabout the election of Bill Clinton.
As late as 1992, Bill Clintonran on a claim that I will not,
we will not give China mostfavored trade nation status.
We will not put it in the WTO.
Who was the president that gotthe China most favored trade status?
(38:56):
And ultimately in the world trade owners,it was Bill Clinton.
And the interesting pointis it was done with.
About 48% of the votes in the House camefrom Democrats, 52% came from Republicans.
Those days, as Doug point are gone.
There is no coordination on that.
>> Douglas Rivers (39:13):
But let me give you one little indication that it may be swinging
the other direction.
So asking about China is no 1across the board in American
politics is pro China these days.
So we asked this week,
do you think the Trump administration'stariffs on China have gone too far?
(39:33):
Not far enough.
And 50% of the public saysthey've gone too far,
with only 8% saying they'venot gone far enough.
I don't know what'sgoing to happen on this.
It's not like we've turned Chinainto a sympathetic character.
But if these tariffs backfire ina big time way, the public will learn
(39:57):
a different lesson than the onethat's gotten in recent years.
>> David Brady (40:02):
Doug, how's that tariff break down by party.
>> Douglas Rivers (40:07):
85%, excuse me, 81% of Democrats say it's gone too far.
55% of independents andonly 22% of Republicans.
>> David Brady (40:16):
Yeah, okay, that makes sense.
National, the only people are gonna changeon this that make the difference is again
the independence.
>> Douglas Rivers (40:24):
Yeah. So I mean the way we always look at these
things is the group thatcan move are independents.
They can shift to one side or the other.
Democrats don't need to winthe Republican base or vice versa.
It's you need to win among independents.
And right now Trump is doingvery badly among independents.
>> David Brady (40:42):
He went from 52% overall support down to 36 or
something and on terror andon inflation he is below that.
He's at 34% support among independents.
>> Bill Whalen (40:56):
So I look at elections right now in America and I see a loop.
And if you want to call it a doom loop bemy guess, but it's a loop in this regard.
We've had the last three presidentialelections have been pretty much the same
election close in terms of, in termsof flipping a handful of states, three,
four or five states deciding things.
Congress ping pongs back and forth in2026 lines up as yet, we're ping ponging.
(41:18):
Doug, you do a lot ofpolling around the world.
You look at other nations elections.
Is there any other nation in the worldthat is kind of politically analogous
to us right now?
>> Douglas Rivers (41:27):
Yeah, I don't think there's any place where the party
alignment is as frozen as is in the U.
S.
The Canadian election is really striking.
You had a, a 30 point move overthe last literally four months.
>> David Brady (41:45):
That guy ought to be sending Trump roses whatever he can.
>> Bill Whalen (41:49):
I was going to ask you, I don't know if you've done the polling yet
on it, but was Trump really the X factor?
>> Douglas Rivers (41:54):
It couldn't have been anything else.
The, you know,the Liberal Party had ruled for
12 years and was so far behindin the polls it seemed hopeless.
You know there is an argument that JustinTrudeau was personally very unpopular but
that can't.
>> Bill Whalen (42:11):
Yeah.
>> Douglas Rivers (42:12):
Move the parties as much as it did.
>> Bill Whalen (42:14):
But I asked the question, Doug, because you look at other nations,
you look at Italy, you look at Argentinaand they have Trump like figures now in.
Charge,>> Douglas Rivers: but as did Canada.
Right, as Kenneth.
But is the overall political system interms of being locked into the nature of
these elections, in terms of legislativebody shifting back and forth,
is there any other countrythat's in the same loop as us?
>> David Brady (42:33):
Well, we, you got before you, before we can answer that question,
you have to look at the natureof the political system.
We are the only country of thissize who has two political parties.
And secondly,
our Constitution doesn't allow usto separate the law from politics.
So look at Liz Truss.
She proposes a policy, the marketsgo crazy and what's happened to her?
(42:57):
She's gone.
That does not happen in the United States.
The British, I remember I visited England,
taught a course over there atthe time of Nixon's impeachment, and
the British could not understandwhy he couldn't be put aside.
And that's politics, let the courtsdo their job and he'll come back.
I think it's very difficult compare,
(43:19):
to compare the United States becausewe only have two parties and
I don't really know of any othersystem that has just two parties and
a presidential divided governmentpossibilities like we do.
But the possible.
>> Douglas Rivers (43:33):
I think most first past the post systems do, but.
>> David Brady (43:36):
Well, Canada has three, four parties.
Australia has three orfour parties that are significant.
>> Douglas Rivers (43:43):
I think Canada has now two and an eighth parties.
>> David Brady (43:47):
Yeah, well, now, yeah [LAUGH].
>> Bill Whalen (43:52):
Okay, let's exit out of the podcast here.
Question for you gentlemen.
So if we use 100 days as a benchmark,I'm curious, by the way,
as political scientists, if you reallycare about the 100 days or not, or you
just do this to go along with the, withthe program, but we passed one benchmark.
What's the next benchmark forthis presidency in terms of polling?
Would you look at it next 100 days,100 days from now, six months from now,
(44:12):
a year from now.
>> Douglas Rivers (44:13):
The analogy I would draw is to the first year of the Biden
administration because we have the samekind of overreach here that we had when
Biden was declaring he was going to bea transformative president with a 50,
50 Senate.
You know, there were a series ofevents in the Biden administration.
The first was he couldn'tget his bills passed.
(44:35):
That's coming up for Trump.
Can he get the tax bill passed?
The second was he stumbled in Afghanistan.
The tariffs here are at least as bad astumble as Biden's situation Afghanistan.
And then the feeling that Bidenhimself was out of it, too old.
(44:55):
And Trump is not a youngguy at this point.
He's the same, about the sameage Biden was four years ago.
You know, the question is whether thingsturn around in the next three months for
Trump or they continue to get worse.
He's not a guy who, you know,wants to admit error or
is inclined to reverse himself.
(45:17):
So I think he could end up quite a bitmore unpopular, but, you know, who knows?
>> David Brady (45:24):
So, I look at it as kind of a slowdown after the 100 days.
And the slowdown turns, I think, first andforemost on what Doug talked about, that
big, beautiful tax bill that's going tobe exceedingly difficult to put together.
I think I believe they have a chance todo it just as they did in 2017, because
(45:46):
Republicans actually don't agree on a lotof stuff other than this tax thing.
So, I think my view is they gota chance to put it together, and
that may make a difference.
So it turns to the legislative stuff,which means it has to slow down.
Trump's got to start toplay some role in that.
The second thing is the state,what happens to the economy?
(46:09):
And here the markets today, the marketsover the last few days seem to believe,
because they haven't dropped further,it seems to me they seem to believe that
there is some possibility thatthere'll be these negotiations and
Trump will be able to puttogether trade packages.
Now, we're going to have to follow thatand see if that works, because the longer
(46:32):
it takes to do that, if they can do it,then the greater the effects,
which I believe are inflationare going to be inflationary.
And inflation hurts him inregard to the public opinion.
So depending upon things,he could slide lower.
What it would take to make him popular areone, getting the tariff thing solved so
(46:53):
that there are deals and the costs ofinflation aren't high, and second,
getting the bill passed, which is notgoing to be easy, but highly possible.
>> Bill Whalen (47:03):
Okay, but define Trump as, quote, unquote, popular.
This is a difficult personality.
>> David Brady (47:08):
48.
>> Bill Whalen (47:09):
48.
Because I say 50.
I think Doug was starting to show bysuggesting that's kind of Trump on
steroids, if you will, 50%.
So you say 48, Doug.
>> Douglas Rivers (47:19):
Probably lower.
>> Bill Whalen (47:21):
Mid-40s.
>> Douglas Rivers (47:22):
Yeah.
>> Bill Whalen (47:23):
Okay, final note.
We haven't talked about the two partiesin terms of approval in Congress.
Yeah, so the question is,while Trump's numbers have gone down,
have Republicans been similarlyaffected in Congress.
>> Douglas Rivers (47:35):
Congress itself always gets very low ratings, but that's.
>> Bill Whalen (47:41):
But Republicans own it >> Douglas Rivers
the past.
But it's still not the casethat the out party is,
loves their members in Congress as well.
They like their congressmen, butCongress itself always does poorly.
And furthermore,the inability of Congress.
You know, a party in Congressto speak with one voice,
(48:03):
you know, I think hinders the Democrats.
And for the case of Republicans,
they're going to have tomake a bunch of compromises.
And again, that's not inspiring to people.
>> David Brady (48:15):
Trying to put that deal together is you've got Chip Roy and
a bunch of guys thatwant to make real cuts.
And as George Will has beenpointing out for some time,
the only cuts you really want to doanything with, the deficit and the debt,
the only thing you've got to dealwith Social Security and Medicare,
you don't deal with that,you're not going to do it.
That's one.
(48:36):
And then->> Douglas Rivers: Well, and
you're not going to be ableto deal with those popularly.
I agree.
Second thing then is you'regonna have to deal with a bunch
of reasonably moderate Republicanswho come from blue states, New York,
Calverton, who wanna say,that $10,000 cap, we can't have that.
We want that raised to 30,000.
(48:56):
There are like four orfive little coalitions like that in
the Republican Party that they're going tohave to bring together on this tax bill.
And I, for one, I'm going to be veryinterested in how they try to put that
together andwhat the consequences of it are.
I'm gonna be in John Kogan's officeregularly asking him what's going on.
>> Bill Whalen (49:15):
So what I'm curious about is the same law that Donald Trump invokes
to do the tariffs, these emergency acts,they also have provisions that say tariffs
can be undone via a jointresolution of Congress.
So I'm curious, Doug, moving forward,if there will be any pressure,
as we can see through polls on the publicsaying Congress do something here, or
maybe this is a function whereyou have to wait a few months and
(49:35):
just see how the tariffs play out.
>> Douglas Rivers (49:37):
Yeah, so my understanding is at this point,
they need to pass a lawwhich is subject to a veto.
>> Bill Whalen (49:45):
You have to have two-thirds override.
Right.>> Douglas Rivers: Yeah.
And so that's that.
Again, like impeachment,that's not going to happen.
But Democrats can put Republicansin the uncomfortable position
of Trump refuses to budge on tariffs.
Democrats put up proposalsto eliminate them.
And what do Republicans in Congress do?
(50:06):
So I wouldn't wanna bea Republican in Congress.
Governing is hard.
>> David Brady (50:11):
And I, I want to add to that one.
One other factor,if you followed the hearings,
the senator from Louisiana, Dr.
Cassidy did not like RFK Joni Ernst, Iowa,
who had served a military combat,was not a big fan of Hetches.
(50:31):
Why did they vote for him?
And part of the answer is that DonaldTrump unlike any other president in my
time, which goes back quite a ways anyof president he has with that MAGA
group the ability to say and the membersof Congress know I will primary you and
that will make their life very unpleasant.
I think the only reasonthat Joni aren't voted for
(50:53):
Hedgeworth is because shedidn't wanna get primaried.
Nobody else in my timehas had 50% of the party
say they're part of makeamerica Great again.
65% of them I think maybeeven last poll I saw.
But Doug's got a new one.
65% of Maga saidthe economy's getting better.
>> Bill Whalen (51:13):
You know, this to me makes for a very good poll down the road.
Doug.I remember there's a line in the movie
the King's Speech where I don't know ifyou guys saw the movie or not, but they're
having a party out in English countrysideand the future king of England and
his wife come to it and Churchill comesup to the the prince's wife and he says,
referring to Wallace way subsidy says,tell me madam, what is her hold on him?
(51:34):
Why is he, why is he so stuck on her?
And that to me, gentlemen,
is kinda the fundamental questionhere with Republicans and Trump.
Why are they so stuck on it?
>> Douglas Rivers (51:42):
So in the first month of the Trump administration,
the flurry of activity,Elon Musk, you know,
willing to threaten people withexpensive primaries and you know,
that really had Republicansin Congress cowed.
I don't think it's weakened that much.
But I do think if they weredoing those nominations again,
(52:05):
more of them would have gone down.
>> David Brady (52:08):
Yeah, rarely in American politics does someone come along like
a Donald Trump.
>> Bill Whalen (52:13):
Yeah.
>> David Brady (52:14):
That has that, that kind of appeal.
I mean, Yui long had it in Louisiana,
Franklin Roosevelt hadit to a certain extent.
But I just don't think anybody inthe time I've been following politics,
I just don't see anybody who has thatkind of generates that kinda loyalty.
>> Douglas Rivers (52:33):
Even FDR was unable to primary Democratic congressman.
>> David Brady (52:39):
Yeah, 1938.
>> Bill Whalen (52:40):
That's right. He learned that lesson in the court
packing, I believe.
But I'm reminded of Charlie Sheen,the actor Charlie Sheen,
who famously flipped out, lost a lot ofmoney by getting fired from his sitcom.
And Charlie Sheen went on a rage andhe coined a hashtag.
You know what the hashtag was?
Winning.
And that to me seems tothe Trump presidency right now,
no matter what happens, he's gonnago out there with hashtag winning.
>> Douglas Rivers (53:02):
Have you had enough winning yet, Bill?
>> David Brady (53:05):
I don't.
I hope the president doesn'twatch this because I.
I'm not sure he'd really liketo be compared to Charlie Sheen.
>> Bill Whalen (53:13):
No, >> Douglas Rivers
the limits of our expertise here.
>> David Brady (53:17):
Yes.
>> Bill Whalen (53:18):
So that's probably a good note to sign off on.
So, gentlemen, thank you very much foryour political acumen.
Dave, when's the book coming out?
>> David Brady (53:24):
September or October.
I'm sorry.
>> Bill Whalen (53:26):
Soon. And
the title of it again isFrom Dominance to Parity.
>> David Brady (53:29):
Yeah, >> Bill Whalen
not P-A-R-O-D-Y.
Right, right, right.
Well, depends on how you read the book.
>> Bill Whalen (53:37):
[LAUGH] Okay.
David Brady, Doug Rivers,thanks so much for your time.
I enjoyed the conversation as always,gentlemen.
>> David Brady (53:41):
Thank you.
>> Douglas Rivers (53:42):
Thanks, Bill.
>> Bill Whalen (53:43):
You've been listening to matters of policy and
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If you've enjoyed this podcast,please will get rate, review and
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(54:04):
Dave Brady is not on social media,though I keep waiting every day for
him to show up on TikTok.
Maybe one of the bandits that'llbuild a merge on TikTok.
Doug Rivers, though, is on X.
His X handle is @doug_rivers andI mentioned his excellent polling firm,
YouGov.
It too was on X.
Its handle is @yougov spelled Y-O-U-G-O-V.
I messed our website beginning inthe show, that is who hoover.org.
(54:26):
While you're there, do yourself a favorand sign up for the Hoover Daily Report,
which delivers the best work ofDave Brady and Doug Rivers to your inbox.
You'll get that weekdays for the HooverInstitution, this is Bill Whalen.
We'll be back soon with a new installmentof Matters of Policy and Politics.
Until then, take care.
Thanks for watching.
>> Presenter (54:42):
This podcast is a production of the Hoover Institution,
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[MUSIC]
>> Bill Whalen (00:03):
It's Wednesday, April 30, 2025.
And welcome back to Matters of Policy andPolitics, a Hoover Institution podcast
devoted to governance and balance of powerhere in America and around the world.
I'm Bill Whalen.
I'm the Virginia Hobbs CarpenterDistinguished Policy Fellow in
Journalism here at the Hoover Institution.
I'm not the only fellowwho's podcasting these days.
I suggest you go to our website,which is hoover.org podcast and
(00:24):
see who all is talking ideas these days.
We do great podcasts.
We just cover the waterfront and policy.
It's good.
So today we're gonna talkabout the Trump presidency,
where it stands now that it's pastthe magical Mythical 100 100-day mark,
which for those of you not familiarwith American politics, is catnip for
punditry in terms of assessinghow a presidency is going.
(00:45):
I will begin this podcast bysaying that this is an unusual
presidency in several regards.
First of all, it's the first time sincethe 1890s that America has had a president
in a second but non-consecutive term.
You have to go back to Grover Clevelandin the 1890s for that.
It's a presidency that hitthe ground running in unusual ways.
Donald Trump having having signed 140 plusexecutive orders in his first 100 days
(01:07):
that easily topped the old record whichwas Franklin Roosevelt back in 1933.
He signed 99.
It's also a presidency that is unusuallyturbulent by compared to other non Trump
presidencies.
I should qualify.
To me, gentlemen, it's proof ofNewton's third law of motion.
What did Newton write?
Quote, for every action there isan equal and opposite reaction.
(01:28):
I say that because while Trump hasdone over 140 executive orders,
those executive orders haveprompted over 217 lawsuits to date.
One other unusual aspectof the Trump presidency,
he has signed just five bills intolaw since coming into office.
That's a new record, a new low.
George W Bush held the previous recordwith only seven signed in 2001.
(01:48):
So Trump having signed fiveis the new standard for that.
So what to make for all of this, I turn totwo of the smartest people I know when it
comes to matters of politics and publicopinion, and that's my Hoover colleagues,
David Brady and Doug Rivers.
Dave Brady is the Hoover Institution'sDavies family Senior Fellow Emeritus and
the Bowen H and Janice Arthur McCoyprofessor of Political Science at
(02:09):
Stanford's Graduate School of Business.
Doug Rivers is a Hoover Senior Fellow anda Stanford University Political scientist.
He's also the Chief Scientist at YUGA plc,a global polling firm, which means that
Doug is out there in the trenches and theweeds and the great beyond at all times,
trying to assess what the publicthinks of this presidency.
Gentlemen, thanks so much forcoming on the podcast.
Seems like we just hadan election a few days ago.
>> Douglas Rivers (02:30):
Seems like forever ago to me.
>> Bill Whalen (02:32):
So let's begin.
Doug, I want to turn to you.
I spent some time goingthrough YouGov's website and
you do an excellent job at archives,by the way congratulations.
It's relatively idiot proof.
An idiot like me.
And let me throw some polling data at you,Doug.
I looked up Trump in 2017when he came to office.
(02:53):
This is the Trump 10 presidencyon January 30, 2017.
And Doug, I picked that date becauseyou had numbers for him on January 20.
But I thought it best maybe to see ifthere's any movement between the 20th and
the 30th, given his rather startlingAmerican Carnage inaugural address that
maybe you remember or not.
So on January 30, 2017, Doug, I haveDonald Trump with a 45.5% approval rating.
(03:15):
You move forward to May 1, which is aboutthe 100 day mark of that presidency.
He's at 43.6%.
So it's about a 2 point percent drop.
A curious thing, by the way,
and I recommend people go to YouGov'swebsite and look at this as well.
It's fascinating, Doug,
how Trump's numbers are relativelyconsistent through four years in office.
It's just almost likea straight line look.
40s approval and low 50s disapproval.
(03:37):
It never shoots up one way orthe other that much.
Now let's turn to Trump 2o, Doug.
January 27th of this year,Donald Trump's approval rating is 50%.
His disapproval is at 45 8%.
Trump on March 31st, the same numbers,pretty much 50% approval,
Doug, 45.8% disapproval.
(03:58):
Then we have Liberation Day,Wednesday, April 2nd.
And now we have him past 100 day marks.
So I turn to you, Doug, tell us whereDonald Trump stands chance right now.
>> Douglas Rivers (04:08):
So last week we reported that Trump's popularity
approval rating had dropped to 41%.
And in the poll releasing today,it's at 42%,
which is well within normalstatistical variation.
So this is the biggest move down forTrump,
(04:30):
basically a close to 10 pointmove in the last month that
we've seen since he camedown the escalator in 2016.
So this is a significant change.
The way I look at it is Trumpstarted his second administration
(04:52):
much Higher than he was at the timeof his first administration.
The same way that his vote was almost 50%,
49.8%, right.
So Trump did start froma higher point this way around.
But I think what we've seen is thatTrump acted like he won a 55 or
(05:16):
60% margin and the degree ofoverreach is catching up with him.
The first month ortwo of the administration,
the level of activity appealed to hisbase and independents thought we're
getting a strong act of president,which is quite a contrast from Biden.
But over the last month, we've descendedinto what most people think is
(05:40):
a chaotic world with two-thirds ofthe voters saying the country is out
of control at this point,including nearly half of Republicans.
>> Bill Whalen (05:49):
So the question to you and Dave is what caused the 10 point drop off?
Is it something.
>> David Brady (05:55):
I've been told.
>> Bill Whalen (05:56):
Something specific he did?
That's why I mentioned Liberation Day andthe tariffs.
Is it a combination ofrepeated things he did?
They're all executive orders.
And how much of this is policy versushow much is driven by personality?
>> David Brady (06:07):
I'm gonna go a little bit in the first part of the policy.
I've been tracking not justTrump's approval rating,
overall approval, but by issues.
And I thought the most important issue,
the one I thought that helped him the mostin the 2024 election, was inflation.
On the approval rating, he's down,as Doug points out, he's down low.
(06:28):
But most of the action is amongindependents on the overall job approval.
So Democrats didn'tlike him to start with.
Republicans did a little fall off there,but the big falloff is among independents.
On inflation, however,
that's the one place where on inflationRepublicans have, there's about
a 10-point drop on Republicans sayingthat he's doing a good job on that.
(06:53):
But among independent,it's been very strange.
And the gap, there's in general a gapbetween if you're a maga, Republican,
Doug has us asked in the surveyswhether you're a maga,
meaning are you a strong Trump supporter.
And the MAGA supporters,[COUGH] 65% of them, as opposed to 40% of
regular Republicans, think that theeconomy is getting stronger, not worse.
(07:19):
They approve of the tariffs,they approve of inflation.
It's the Republicans whodon't answer the question.
They're maga.
They're the ones thatsupport us fallen off more.
But still he's the base ofthe part the party overall,
it's about 85% still approveof the job he's doing.
>> Douglas Rivers (07:39):
Yeah, so in the 2024 election,
inflation was clearly the mostimportant issue, and it still is.
If you ask people what'sthe most important issue,
79% say inflation was very important,and 96% say it was very important or
Somewhat important,which is higher than any other issue.
(08:03):
This is the issue that killedthe Biden administration,
that Biden never recovered fromthe inflation in 20, 22 and 23.
Trump had a huge advantage oninflation at the time of the election.
Basically close to plus20 points on that issue.
(08:26):
Right now, 57% of the public disapprovesof the way he's handling inflation.
They elected him to come in andreduce prices, get a good economy.
And the tariff policy, you know,
threatens clear increase inprices that people will pay.
(08:48):
And it's very unpopular so far.
We haven't actually seenan increase in prices.
This is something that's on the horizon.
So this threatens the entiresecond Trump administration.
If they don't get this under control,they're in deep trouble and it's not going
to work to do essentially what Biden did,which is say it's, it's not so bad.
(09:13):
Who are you going to believe,me or your lying eyes?
>> Bill Whalen (09:17):
Now, is it strictly economics to blame here?
Majority economics.
What role does foreignpolicy play into this, Doug?
Cuz he did promise coming to officesaying he would end the Ukraine war on
the first day or.
>> Douglas Rivers (09:27):
Well, he now says that was in jest.
I think the foreign policyside is something that is,
has a much weaker effectwith the public at large.
His Ukraine policy is not terriblypopular, but it's on the order of,
of I think six orseven points negative, not 20 points.
(09:51):
And people weren't voting inthe 2024 election on foreign policy.
It was much more inflation.
And a close second was immigration.
Immigration is the issuein which they're minus six,
I believe, this week on immigration,which is an issue that,
again, was up 20->> Bill Whalen: It's down six points on
immigration?
>> David Brady (10:12):
Yes, that's a yes.
>> Bill Whalen (10:14):
Okay.
>> David Brady (10:15):
I do want to say on that foreign policy that I agree
with everything Doug said, butI do think that in terms of policy,
the long term consequences of the foreignpolicy are perhaps more important
because the question of what do ourallies, what a Canada, what a Mexico,
what are the European Union,what a NATO, to what extent are they,
(10:39):
to what extent can they in the long haultrust the United States commitments?
I think that's, that's going to be a moreand more important question over time.
>> Douglas Rivers (10:50):
Yeah, I mean, we're political hacks here and
obviously what happens in foreignpolicy is incredibly consequential
to Americans, but it's not topof mind to voters at the moment.
I'd like to correct one thing.
He's minus one in inflation,not minus six.
>> Bill Whalen (11:08):
Minus one, okay, I wanna go back to immigration for a second,
because this would seem to be an areawhere he could take a victory lap in
this regard.
If you look at the border right now,he has brought the border under control,
as promised.
But, gentlemen, is the problem that whathe's done on the border overshadowed by
the drama of the gentlemandown in El Salvador and
the lawsuits going on right now?
(11:30):
I think I mentioned 217 lawsuits.
I think 60 of those lawsuitsrelated to immigration policy.
So is it a case of him doingtoo much on immigration,
perhaps not focusingthe public on the one you.
>> David Brady (11:42):
Think back to the first term people were for him on immigration,
but then when they split the families,it makes a difference how you do it.
>> Bill Whalen (11:51):
Right. >> David Brady
I think what's hurt him on immigrationis the pictures of hurting people
in the lawsuits bring up the pointthat even if you want them deported,
they do have some rightsbefore they're deported.
And the guy in El Salvadorthat's been put there illegally,
Trump today said he wasn'tgonna bring him out.
(12:14):
So I think it's more the style that'saffecting the immigration issue.
>> Douglas Rivers (12:19):
The public supports restrictions on immigration,
deporting people who are here illegally,especially if they're convicted of crimes.
I think what they're getting at the momentis more than they bargained for.
You know, soput ICE people on the streets,
taking away people whoaren't violent criminals,
(12:43):
sending someone mistakenly to maximumsecurity prison in El Salvador,
talking about doing the sameto American citizens.
That is overreach.
If Trump showed restraint on this,
I think his position on immigrationwould be pretty strong.
But I don't really thinkthat's in his wheelhouse.
>> Bill Whalen (13:07):
So he has given the Democrats ample talking points when
it comes to immigration and
ample talking points in generalabout management of the presidency.
But gentlemen,from just a data standpoint,
from what you're looking at polling,where is the Democratic Party right now?
Are they gaining it all from Trump?
>> Douglas Rivers (13:24):
No, they're not gaining at all.
In fact,
the Democratic Party is less popularthan the Republican Party at the moment.
So in our latest poll, we haveDemocrats at 36% favorable rating and
55% unfavorable,whereas Republicans are 40%
favorable and I think 52% unfavorable.
(13:48):
The problem for the out party is theydon't have one person speaking for them.
And the people they do have speaking forthem,
like Chuck Schumer,are not that effective communicators.
I think it remains to be seen howthe more leftist firebrands like
Bernie Sanders and aoc,who are more effective communicators but
(14:13):
are too far left forlarge fractions of the American public.
So it's the usual problem of an out party.
But so far, if the Democrats are countingon Trump's unpopularity to save them,
I don't think it's goingto work in the short run.
>> David Brady (14:30):
Happened in 2018.
It wasn't that the Democratssuddenly got more popular.
It was they didn't likewhat Trump was doing.
And Covid, I think the Democratsdon't need to be liked to win
the House of representatives in 2026.
I don't think they're goingto win the Senate, but.
But that's always the out party,as Doug says.
(14:50):
But I don't think theyneed to be popular to win.
They're the alternative.
>> Bill Whalen (14:56):
This is an interesting strategic question we should talk about
and tied into your poll.
So you have competing schools ofthought within Democratic circles.
There is the James Carville school ofthinking, which is kind of Napoleonic.
Don't get in the way of the enemywhen the enemy is destroying himself.
In other words, lay low and
voters will punish the Republicansin the midterms in 2026.
Conversely, you have someonelike Illinois Governor J.B.
(15:17):
pritzker going to New Hampshire lastweekend and saying, we've got to go in
the streets, literally, and take intothe streets and march and fight back.
So an activist approach.
But Doug, is there anything withinthe data that you have in front of you
that suggests that there's one way orother that Democrats are leading?
Are they happy being passive ordo they want a fighter?
>> Douglas Rivers (15:36):
Well, the Democratic base is relatively unhappy.
So the low ratings that the Democratsare getting on favorability are due
primarily to Democrats not being asfavorable towards the Democratic Party
as Republicans are towardsthe Republican Party.
I think there's a balancebetween being passive,
(15:56):
which the base doesn't like, and in fact,
voters want someone that saysthey're going to fix things and
taking unpopular fringepositions on issues.
So the challenge for Democrats is the 2024
election showed a shrinkingof the Democratic base.
(16:19):
And so they need to appeal tothe voters they've been losing,
some of whom are minorities,some of whom are, you know,
younger white males, and large numberof which are not left wingers.
>> David Brady (16:36):
I agree with that.
And looking at this issue over time,the problem for
the Democrats has been they win elections,when they win the moderate vote.
And the Democratic Party has someadvantage on that because they're a little
more heterogeneous in the sensethat if you look at Democrats,
(16:56):
about 60 to 65% are liberal orvery liberal, but 30, 35% are.
They say,they're a moderate to conservative.
And most independents whoswing elections are moderates.
So I agree with Doug,you've got to appeal that base.
But that is not.
When you lose, as the Democrats didin 2024, that's the sign on the left.
(17:18):
The view is, why did we lose?
We lost because we weren't liberal enough,we weren't progressive enough.
If we just get more progressive,that's aoc, that's Bernie.
My view is that's a dead sure loser.
I just went back andlooked at elections from Obama.
I mean, sorry,from 2004 through the election.
And the moderate Democrats, when Democratswin moderates, they win elections.
(17:42):
When they don't win moderates,they lose elections.
And pretty much the same is true forRepublicans.
But anyway, that's the issue.
My view is the action's in the middle.
You can get to the middle, you can win.
>> Bill Whalen (17:55):
So if you're a Democratic strategist,
you could look at 2026 in two ways andprobably shame on us.
We're talking about 2026.
It's what, 550 days away?
But why not?
You could either just say, okay,it's a pure anti-Trump campaign,
just make it against Trump, oryou could try another line or
maybe add the line of attack, which isit's a do nothing Republican Congress.
(18:15):
I mentioned that Trump has triedonly five bills so far in the law.
But, Doug, if you go down the do nothing,
that begs the question of what it isthat the public wants done right now.
>> Douglas Rivers (18:25):
Yeah, so the first thing the public wants is a good economy,
and everyone's in favor of that.
So you can essentially run that sortof race as a satisfying your base in
the middle.
At the same time, I think the,you know, the challenge here for
Democrats is they had issuesthat were structurally bad.
(18:48):
When you are worried about inflation,
usually the Democrats are notthe people you go to for reassurance.
If you're worried about the border,that's an issue Republicans have owned.
The best thing that Democratscan do on those issues is
essentially let Trump hurtthe Republican brand on those,
(19:08):
which I think he hasdefinitely done on inflation.
Losing a plus 20 issue to a minus20 in a matter of weeks is
a colossal political failure.
Immigration is one where Democratsneed to convince voters that
they're willing to be tough onimmigration, but not crazy.
(19:30):
You know, Trump has given them an openingon that that they otherwise didn't have.
>> David Brady (19:35):
I, I think the right strategy for the Democrats given that
they're going to have these disputesbetween the left and the center.
Think AOC andVerney versus Abigail Spanberger,
the former congresswoman from Virginia.
I think that the best thingthe Democrats could do in 2026
would be to follow Garfield andmake the campaigns local,
(19:58):
get money, choose good candidates,get the set of races.
We all know what the setof races are going to be.
They're going to turn the House andget good candidates in those cases and
make the case at the local level.
I don't think without a candidate,I don't see how the Democrats try and
put forward a unified front otherthan we won't do what he did.
>> Bill Whalen (20:20):
Doug, I remember back in the 1980s it was popular to talk about
so-called, Mommy Daddyissues in Politics and
that voters gravitated towardDemocrats on so-called mommy issues.
That would be education, that would behealth care, kind of comforting matters.
Voters would gravitate towardRepublicans on daddy issues,
which would be money, which wouldbe defense, which would be crime.
Is that, does that matrix still hold up orhas it been changed over the past?
>> Douglas Rivers (20:43):
Yeah. Wow.
How has the world changed?
>> David Brady (20:45):
How has the world changed 30 seconds or less.
>> Douglas Rivers (20:49):
The most amazing thing is on Russia.
The Republican base now that nearly
half of which think Russiais friendly to us, right?
Whereas, Democrats are havea renewed sense of being cold
warriors on foreign policy.
>> David Brady (21:08):
And free trade.
And free trade.
They're big on free trade too.
>> Douglas Rivers (21:11):
Yes, free trade is another one that is now a left wing issue.
>> Bill Whalen (21:16):
What about Israel?
>> Douglas Rivers (21:17):
Well,
Republicans are much stronger supportersof Israel than Democratic base.
And this is a problem is sympathy for
Palestine is not popularexcept in left wing circles.
>> David Brady (21:33):
You mean like universities?
No, I agree.
>> Douglas Rivers (21:35):
Yeah, that's true.
>> David Brady (21:37):
Yeah, it's absolutely true.
>> Douglas Rivers (21:41):
I mean Kamala Harris tried to thread the needle on that which
is saying that our Support forIsrael is unwavering, but
that doesn't mean we don't thinkPalestinians should be treated fairly.
But that insofar as that issue mattered,which I kind of doubt for
the election, for it was too,too complicated and hard to explain.
>> Bill Whalen (22:06):
I wanna shift now and
talk about the state of the twoparties in America right now.
So what did Trump do on hishundredth day in office?
The answer is that he hoppedon board Air Force One, and
he flew from Andrews to Michigan.
He went specifically to Warren,Michigan, which for
those who are not familiar withMichigan is just north of Detroit.
This is automobile country in America.
(22:27):
This made a lot of sense for them do,given that Michigan was an important
state forhim in terms of getting back into office.
Also, he had earlier that day signeda couple of executive orders which
are trying to throttle back on terror ofthe auto manufacturers like Ford and GM.
So smart politics to go there,take a victory lap for 100 days and
say what he's doing with the OD industry.
But there's another side to this story aswell when it comes to war in Michigan.
(22:50):
So Trump spoke at Macomb CommunityCollege, which is the same school where
Ronald Reagan once upon a time utteredthe famous words, I didn't leave my party,
my party left me.
This was Reagan referring tothe fact that he once upon a time
was a Harry Truman Democrat.
But he, over the years,he changed because.
Not because he changed, butbecause the Democrats did.
Now, in the 1960s, Warren was a Democraticstronghold in Michigan, but by 1980,
(23:14):
it had become staunchly Republican,a very decidedly Republican suburb.
The year after Reagan's reelection,a Democratic pollster, maybe Doug,
knows him, a buddy of his,Stanley Greenberg, Stan Greenberg,
goes to Warren to figure out whatthe heck is going on with his party.
And he looks around, andhere's what he discovers.
A lot of disaffected,conservative white Americans.
(23:34):
And why are they disaffected?
They feel like everythinghas let them down.
They feel like the system has failed them.
The economy has let them down.
Their elected officialshave let them down.
They don't likethe country's social drift.
And Mr. Greenberg comes up witha phrase for these people.
He calls them Reagan Democrats.
So question, gentlemen.
Long time sinceRonald Reagan was in office.
Ronald Reagan did spawnthe Reagan Democrat.
(23:56):
Ronald Reagan did changethe political map,
especially when you look at howread the south is right now.
But let's put today in a context,Iif you look at this Dave,
you're writing a book on this.
Explain how things differ between Reagan'stime and Trump's time when it comes to
going to Michigan and appealing to the socalled Reagan Democrat.
>> David Brady (24:15):
I certainly want to recommend a book on this, no kidding,
I just finished,it's called From Dominance to Parody.
And it's the story of if you combineparty identification with ideology,
hopefully it tells you somethingabout American politics.
But the answer to the first question iswhat happened to those Reagan Democrats,
they're Republicans.
(24:35):
In 1980, 40% of people who were selfidentified conservatives were Democrats.
By 1992-94,that number had dropped dramatically, and
that party sorting has continued over timeand it leads to polarization, obviously.
So at the present time, there's TheRepublicans are 75 to 80-81% conservative,
(25:02):
very conservative withabout 15-18% moderate.
And the Democrats are,as I mentioned earlier, about 65, 35, and
once the parties are sorted like that,you get these differences,
it makes elections much closer.
And when elections are close like that,any reason or
ability to compromise between the parties,that's diminished.
(25:28):
So you get, so you get this polarizedbattle which is a result of this
long sorting process thatbegan with Ronald Reagan.
>> Douglas Rivers (25:36):
I think it began before Reagan, but yes,
it certainly grew to the point wherethose groups were swing voters and
now they are firmly Republican voters.
So a state like Michigan, Democrats win byracking up big margins in Ann Arbor and
(25:57):
the suburbs in the center of Detroit, but
auto workers are no longer a greatconstituency for Democrats.
>> David Brady (26:08):
I want to say Doug's right,
it did start before that the actions.
There was some in the 60syou got in the south,
there were some people who moved Democrat.
But still,even as late as the 90s, even 90s,
Bill Clinton could take Southern borders,so you could take half of them.
(26:28):
But the right point there,it started earlier,
but it exacerbated during the Ring.
And the other point is a lot of peoplemake the claim, well, that was just
the South, what happened was it's justrace, that's absolutely not true.
In this book we examined lots of datafrom Gallup, from stuff Doug got for
(26:52):
us and other stuff, andacross the board among young people,
white people, old people,Southerners, every region.
Republicans gained at the expense ofDemocrats because conservative people who
said they were conservative and had beenDemocratic were moving to the Republicans.
(27:13):
It was not a Southern Regional phenomenon,
it was a phenomenon ofconservatives across the country.
And I think now isn't it the case,Doug, that they're either dead even or
they're a few 1 or 2% more Republicans now>> Douglas Rivers: So
in January of this year wehad Republicans with 2%
(27:35):
advantage over Democrats,which never ever happened,
even under the height ofthe Reagan administration.
I'd say one other thing hereis a big change is Democrats
can squeak to a national victoryby winning the blue wall and
(27:58):
possibly making some inroads inplaces like Georgia that were for
30 years out of after essentially Clinton,
no Democrats won any southern state.
But for Democrats to win a real majority,
that is the kind of thing that would giveyou control of both houses of Congress.
(28:22):
They need to win in some places wherethey really aren't yet competitive.
You know, so the Texas is, the Floridas,
you need to be able to win aroundthe edge of the red states.
And there are just so many placeswhere Democrats used to win in these
(28:45):
relatively unpopulated states thatfigure importantly in the Senate
that make the Senate structurallya real problem for Democrats.
I agree >> Douglas Rivers
Indiana or Iowa or Ohio, places whereDemocrats used to be very competitive and
are hardly competitive these days.
>> Bill Whalen (29:06):
Yeah, that's a great point David and
I were talking about this earlier,a lot of people already projecting ahead.
They're saying, okay, Democrats,you look at the map right now,
you look at the way House lines up rightnow, it would seem it's pretty easy for
Democrats to pick up the House.
Not too many seats they have to gain,this president struggling right now,
especially on the economy, solet's assume Democrats pick up the House.
But you look at the Senate right now andRepublican Democrats would have to pick up
(29:30):
four seats, I believe if they have 53,but now they got pick up four.
You look up that 2026 map and it's hardto find four seats unless there's really
an aberration race I mentioned.
>> Douglas Rivers (29:40):
Well, they would have to pick up seats in places like Florida or
Ohio, which are open now, somewhatunexpectedly, those are not impossible.
But things have to go pretty far south forRepublicans.
>> Bill Whalen (29:54):
Florida's fascinating when you look at just how the party
registration has changed in that state,it's now a Republican operation.
But I get back to this because you projecthere into 2027, you have people saying,
well look, there are already articles ofimpeachment filed in the Senate against
and the in the Congressagainst Trump in the House.
So Democrats get back in the House,so they're going to impeach them,
you take the scenario step further.
(30:15):
You can impeach them, they've doneit twice, they'll do it again, but
it goes to the Senate, andhere's the problem, 53 Republicans.
Let's say the Senate breaks even forDemocrats and Republicans and
still 5347 the split.
Doug, you're going to have to find 20Republican senators who presumably are not
running for re election tovote to convict Donald Trump.
>> Douglas Rivers (30:33):
I think someone said last week we tried impeachment before and
it died in the Senate.
I think they would be well advisednot to take up impeachment
until there's some Republican votes forit.
>> David Brady (30:49):
I don't understand, you can lead a horse to water, but
occasionally the horse willget an idea and maybe drink.
Congress hasn't gotten it, they didn'tget it with Clinton, they didn't get it,
it's just, it strikes me as incredible.
If they would have done something,pass an act of censure on Clinton, for
example, that would have passed.
(31:11):
But the idea that you're going to getimpeachment and that it's useful,
that's, that's the,in my view, that's the left
in the Democratic Party still believingthat that's possible and it's not.
It appeals to their base, butthe middle, I think the middle is just,
they're tired of it, it just doesn'tmake any, it's not going to happen.
>> Bill Whalen (31:31):
Yeah. Well,
this podcast I was listening to,it said, well, they could impeach him.
And what they might try to impeach him onis how he is trying to financially benefit
from things going on.
For example, you, for CBS and otherentities to give money to your library and
so forth, so maybe make that impeachable.
>> David Brady (31:44):
I mean, you haven't bought any of those family things.
>> Bill Whalen (31:47):
No, but I just get back to the one thing, you're gonna have to find
20 votes to impeach him, andthis ties into your polling data.
He just, his numbers don't moveamong Republicans much, do they?
>> David Brady (31:56):
Think of it like this, think of what Mitch McConnell just said.
About Trump in hisbiography wasn't kind and
he voted not to impeach him.
>> Bill Whalen (32:07):
And where's Mitch McConnell headed?
Retirement.
>> David Brady (32:10):
Yeah.
>> Douglas Rivers (32:11):
To be replaced by someone that's going to be more pro Trump
than him.
>> Bill Whalen (32:16):
That's a good point.
So let's go back to Michigan for a second.
So Trump won it the two times that he won,he lost it the one time he lost.
Joe Biden won it the one time he won.
Hillary Clinton lost it,Barack Obama won it twice, I believe.
So what, Doug, was there any differencebetween how Obama went about Michigan
versus how Biden went about Michigan?
Because I want to talkabout moving forward and
(32:38):
how Democrats can revisit Michigan andPennsylvania in these states.
We did a Goodfellows episodethe other day with ronna,
Congressman from 17 congressionaldistrict, California, Silicon Valley.
He's very big about going into redstates and trying to revitalize them.
He wants a Marshall Plan for red states,bring in a lot of venture capital,
a lot of government.
>> David Brady (32:57):
What do you mean red states are doing better than blue states?
What is he talking about?
Is there texas in California?
Well, what Texas is not,Texas is gaining jobs,
people lean in California to go to Texas.
>> Bill Whalen (33:08):
He's looking more.
He's looking upper Midwest andRust Belt, and
it's kind of what George Bushfamously said in 1992.
Remember message I care.
He wants to show Democratscare what's going on here.
But getting back to this, Doug, you talkedabout stitching together coalition.
So has, how much has the coalitionchanged since Obama's days?
>> Douglas Rivers (33:24):
All right, so
probably the most significant is thatObama generated very high turnout and
enormous margins among minorities,and those have slipped.
So, you know, the arithmetic fora Democratic win in one of these
states is there aren't enoughsuburban educated voters.
(33:46):
You have to not only win them andwin very big majorities among,
you know, your college student andyour minority base,
you have to do decently in rural areas.
And that's where Democraticsupport has collapsed since 2012.
>> David Brady (34:05):
Let's not forget that in 2008, when Obama was elected,
as you recall, we had had quite a crisisunder a Republican administration.
And Obama, the Democrats, seems to me,was going to win whoever it was,
because I remember McCain,a great man, but he said,
you know, economics, I didn'treally pay much attention to that.
(34:29):
He hadn't, and sothen he squeaked by the second time.
Obama squeaks by.
It's much narrower than the first time,which even by,
by 20th century standards,that 53% he got was.
That wasn't a landslide,>> Bill Whalen: right?
>> Douglas Rivers (34:45):
Yeah. So Obama won North Carolina,
Indiana and Iowa.
And you know, those are states that arevery tough for Democrats at the moment.
>> Bill Whalen (34:58):
Well, that's what's interesting here.
The water is recessed from 28 to 2012.
But Dave, let's get back to what you'retalking about in your book the period of
American history.
It seems analogous,
here would be the late 19th centurythat I mentioned with Cleveland.
Why?
Because you had a series of oneterm presidencies for one thing.
It's just, you know,some by accident, some by plan.
What Garfield dies in office,Chester Arthur serves out his term.
(35:20):
Then I guess what Cleveland wins andthat he loses to Harrison,
the Cleveland comes back.
So that's a whole series.
>> David Brady (35:26):
You're absolutely right.
That's very good to figure out, so.
>> Bill Whalen (35:32):
You have the one term presidencies, but
then you have volatility in Congress,which we've seen.
>> David Brady (35:36):
Yes, >> Bill Whalen
compare, contrast the two and
let's talk about where we thinkthis sorting out is going.
Well, I think, I mean what happened?
That's right.The two periods that are most unstable
are the One you met 1874, 1896,when the Republicans won everything and
held control for14 years until 1910 and then Wilson.
(36:00):
But the point that you have to,the point you have to remember
about that is that those two periodsare driven by ultimately globalization.
The first period was a periodof intense globalization,
the United States went froma agricultural to industrial power.
(36:20):
We moved up from not being very bigindustrially to either leading, or
the next to Britain, the next best biggestcountry and in the United this time.
And that was only about 35% of the world.
>> Bill Whalen (36:32):
Right.
>> David Brady (36:32):
In this present period which begins the industrial.
The globalization of the world bringsabout the same kind of instability and
the same kinds of issues.
If you think about it,there's the issue of immigration,
which is really big in the 1890s,there's the issue of foreign policy,
the sorts of things they talked about.
There's the issue of money,there was a gold versus silver issue,
(36:56):
the parallels are quite intense.
And while that is a big issue,
it is the case that globalizationdrives these issues.
Think about populism, what happened, thejobs went to China, et cetera, et cetera.
It was the Midwest gets hollowed out.
In the 1890s.
The same thing was the farms werebeing hollowed out as people moved to
the cities.
(37:16):
So it's a big complicated issue,it's not just the United States.
If you look across Europe, there'smovements in France, movements, five star
movement In Italy, there's a movement,there's movement in the Netherlands.
All of these populous things are comingabout because the global, the base,
the manufacturing base and
all these countries has sort of goneas you move to this globalization.
(37:39):
It's big, a big issue,butt I do think that's what drives it,.
>> Douglas Rivers (37:44):
Yeah, it is a complicated issue because the parties,
and particularlythe parties in Congress and
elites have been much more freetraders than the public at large.
And so, you had a case whereboth the Democratic and
(38:04):
Republican elites were more profree trade than their basis.
And then over,since the financial crisis of 2008, nine,
you know, the public has definitelymoved to being anti trade,
which Trump was the perfect fit for.
I think we are potentially seeinga swing back in the other direction.
(38:28):
Trump has made the Democratic Party asfree trade as it's ever been in its entire
history.
>> David Brady (38:36):
I agree with Doug and
one good point about that is you thinkabout the election of Bill Clinton.
As late as 1992, Bill Clintonran on a claim that I will not,
we will not give China mostfavored trade nation status.
We will not put it in the WTO.
Who was the president that gotthe China most favored trade status?
(38:56):
And ultimately in the world trade owners,it was Bill Clinton.
And the interesting pointis it was done with.
About 48% of the votes in the House camefrom Democrats, 52% came from Republicans.
Those days, as Doug point are gone.
There is no coordination on that.
>> Douglas Rivers (39:13):
But let me give you one little indication that it may be swinging
the other direction.
So asking about China is no 1across the board in American
politics is pro China these days.
So we asked this week,
do you think the Trump administration'stariffs on China have gone too far?
(39:33):
Not far enough.
And 50% of the public saysthey've gone too far,
with only 8% saying they'venot gone far enough.
I don't know what'sgoing to happen on this.
It's not like we've turned Chinainto a sympathetic character.
But if these tariffs backfire ina big time way, the public will learn
(39:57):
a different lesson than the onethat's gotten in recent years.
>> David Brady (40:02):
Doug, how's that tariff break down by party.
>> Douglas Rivers (40:07):
85%, excuse me, 81% of Democrats say it's gone too far.
55% of independents andonly 22% of Republicans.
>> David Brady (40:16):
Yeah, okay, that makes sense.
National, the only people are gonna changeon this that make the difference is again
the independence.
>> Douglas Rivers (40:24):
Yeah. So I mean the way we always look at these
things is the group thatcan move are independents.
They can shift to one side or the other.
Democrats don't need to winthe Republican base or vice versa.
It's you need to win among independents.
And right now Trump is doingvery badly among independents.
>> David Brady (40:42):
He went from 52% overall support down to 36 or
something and on terror andon inflation he is below that.
He's at 34% support among independents.
>> Bill Whalen (40:56):
So I look at elections right now in America and I see a loop.
And if you want to call it a doom loop bemy guess, but it's a loop in this regard.
We've had the last three presidentialelections have been pretty much the same
election close in terms of, in termsof flipping a handful of states, three,
four or five states deciding things.
Congress ping pongs back and forth in2026 lines up as yet, we're ping ponging.
(41:18):
Doug, you do a lot ofpolling around the world.
You look at other nations elections.
Is there any other nation in the worldthat is kind of politically analogous
to us right now?
>> Douglas Rivers (41:27):
Yeah, I don't think there's any place where the party
alignment is as frozen as is in the U.
S.
The Canadian election is really striking.
You had a, a 30 point move overthe last literally four months.
>> David Brady (41:45):
That guy ought to be sending Trump roses whatever he can.
>> Bill Whalen (41:49):
I was going to ask you, I don't know if you've done the polling yet
on it, but was Trump really the X factor?
>> Douglas Rivers (41:54):
It couldn't have been anything else.
The, you know,the Liberal Party had ruled for
12 years and was so far behindin the polls it seemed hopeless.
You know there is an argument that JustinTrudeau was personally very unpopular but
that can't.
>> Bill Whalen (42:11):
Yeah.
>> Douglas Rivers (42:12):
Move the parties as much as it did.
>> Bill Whalen (42:14):
But I asked the question, Doug, because you look at other nations,
you look at Italy, you look at Argentinaand they have Trump like figures now in.
Charge,>> Douglas Rivers: but as did Canada.
Right, as Kenneth.
But is the overall political system interms of being locked into the nature of
these elections, in terms of legislativebody shifting back and forth,
is there any other countrythat's in the same loop as us?
>> David Brady (42:33):
Well, we, you got before you, before we can answer that question,
you have to look at the natureof the political system.
We are the only country of thissize who has two political parties.
And secondly,
our Constitution doesn't allow usto separate the law from politics.
So look at Liz Truss.
She proposes a policy, the marketsgo crazy and what's happened to her?
(42:57):
She's gone.
That does not happen in the United States.
The British, I remember I visited England,
taught a course over there atthe time of Nixon's impeachment, and
the British could not understandwhy he couldn't be put aside.
And that's politics, let the courtsdo their job and he'll come back.
I think it's very difficult compare,
(43:19):
to compare the United States becausewe only have two parties and
I don't really know of any othersystem that has just two parties and
a presidential divided governmentpossibilities like we do.
But the possible.
>> Douglas Rivers (43:33):
I think most first past the post systems do, but.
>> David Brady (43:36):
Well, Canada has three, four parties.
Australia has three orfour parties that are significant.
>> Douglas Rivers (43:43):
I think Canada has now two and an eighth parties.
>> David Brady (43:47):
Yeah, well, now, yeah [LAUGH].
>> Bill Whalen (43:52):
Okay, let's exit out of the podcast here.
Question for you gentlemen.
So if we use 100 days as a benchmark,I'm curious, by the way,
as political scientists, if you reallycare about the 100 days or not, or you
just do this to go along with the, withthe program, but we passed one benchmark.
What's the next benchmark forthis presidency in terms of polling?
Would you look at it next 100 days,100 days from now, six months from now,
(44:12):
a year from now.
>> Douglas Rivers (44:13):
The analogy I would draw is to the first year of the Biden
administration because we have the samekind of overreach here that we had when
Biden was declaring he was going to bea transformative president with a 50,
50 Senate.
You know, there were a series ofevents in the Biden administration.
The first was he couldn'tget his bills passed.
(44:35):
That's coming up for Trump.
Can he get the tax bill passed?
The second was he stumbled in Afghanistan.
The tariffs here are at least as bad astumble as Biden's situation Afghanistan.
And then the feeling that Bidenhimself was out of it, too old.
(44:55):
And Trump is not a youngguy at this point.
He's the same, about the sameage Biden was four years ago.
You know, the question is whether thingsturn around in the next three months for
Trump or they continue to get worse.
He's not a guy who, you know,wants to admit error or
is inclined to reverse himself.
(45:17):
So I think he could end up quite a bitmore unpopular, but, you know, who knows?
>> David Brady (45:24):
So, I look at it as kind of a slowdown after the 100 days.
And the slowdown turns, I think, first andforemost on what Doug talked about, that
big, beautiful tax bill that's going tobe exceedingly difficult to put together.
I think I believe they have a chance todo it just as they did in 2017, because
(45:46):
Republicans actually don't agree on a lotof stuff other than this tax thing.
So, I think my view is they gota chance to put it together, and
that may make a difference.
So it turns to the legislative stuff,which means it has to slow down.
Trump's got to start toplay some role in that.
The second thing is the state,what happens to the economy?
(46:09):
And here the markets today, the marketsover the last few days seem to believe,
because they haven't dropped further,it seems to me they seem to believe that
there is some possibility thatthere'll be these negotiations and
Trump will be able to puttogether trade packages.
Now, we're going to have to follow thatand see if that works, because the longer
(46:32):
it takes to do that, if they can do it,then the greater the effects,
which I believe are inflationare going to be inflationary.
And inflation hurts him inregard to the public opinion.
So depending upon things,he could slide lower.
What it would take to make him popular areone, getting the tariff thing solved so
(46:53):
that there are deals and the costs ofinflation aren't high, and second,
getting the bill passed, which is notgoing to be easy, but highly possible.
>> Bill Whalen (47:03):
Okay, but define Trump as, quote, unquote, popular.
This is a difficult personality.
>> David Brady (47:08):
48.
>> Bill Whalen (47:09):
48.
Because I say 50.
I think Doug was starting to show bysuggesting that's kind of Trump on
steroids, if you will, 50%.
So you say 48, Doug.
>> Douglas Rivers (47:19):
Probably lower.
>> Bill Whalen (47:21):
Mid-40s.
>> Douglas Rivers (47:22):
Yeah.
>> Bill Whalen (47:23):
Okay, final note.
We haven't talked about the two partiesin terms of approval in Congress.
Yeah, so the question is,while Trump's numbers have gone down,
have Republicans been similarlyaffected in Congress.
>> Douglas Rivers (47:35):
Congress itself always gets very low ratings, but that's.
>> Bill Whalen (47:41):
But Republicans own it >> Douglas Rivers
the past.
But it's still not the casethat the out party is,
loves their members in Congress as well.
They like their congressmen, butCongress itself always does poorly.
And furthermore,the inability of Congress.
You know, a party in Congressto speak with one voice,
(48:03):
you know, I think hinders the Democrats.
And for the case of Republicans,
they're going to have tomake a bunch of compromises.
And again, that's not inspiring to people.
>> David Brady (48:15):
Trying to put that deal together is you've got Chip Roy and
a bunch of guys thatwant to make real cuts.
And as George Will has beenpointing out for some time,
the only cuts you really want to doanything with, the deficit and the debt,
the only thing you've got to dealwith Social Security and Medicare,
you don't deal with that,you're not going to do it.
That's one.
(48:36):
And then->> Douglas Rivers: Well, and
you're not going to be ableto deal with those popularly.
I agree.
Second thing then is you'regonna have to deal with a bunch
of reasonably moderate Republicanswho come from blue states, New York,
Calverton, who wanna say,that $10,000 cap, we can't have that.
We want that raised to 30,000.
(48:56):
There are like four orfive little coalitions like that in
the Republican Party that they're going tohave to bring together on this tax bill.
And I, for one, I'm going to be veryinterested in how they try to put that
together andwhat the consequences of it are.
I'm gonna be in John Kogan's officeregularly asking him what's going on.
>> Bill Whalen (49:15):
So what I'm curious about is the same law that Donald Trump invokes
to do the tariffs, these emergency acts,they also have provisions that say tariffs
can be undone via a jointresolution of Congress.
So I'm curious, Doug, moving forward,if there will be any pressure,
as we can see through polls on the publicsaying Congress do something here, or
maybe this is a function whereyou have to wait a few months and
(49:35):
just see how the tariffs play out.
>> Douglas Rivers (49:37):
Yeah, so my understanding is at this point,
they need to pass a lawwhich is subject to a veto.
>> Bill Whalen (49:45):
You have to have two-thirds override.
Right.>> Douglas Rivers: Yeah.
And so that's that.
Again, like impeachment,that's not going to happen.
But Democrats can put Republicansin the uncomfortable position
of Trump refuses to budge on tariffs.
Democrats put up proposalsto eliminate them.
And what do Republicans in Congress do?
(50:06):
So I wouldn't wanna bea Republican in Congress.
Governing is hard.
>> David Brady (50:11):
And I, I want to add to that one.
One other factor,if you followed the hearings,
the senator from Louisiana, Dr.
Cassidy did not like RFK Joni Ernst, Iowa,
who had served a military combat,was not a big fan of Hetches.
(50:31):
Why did they vote for him?
And part of the answer is that DonaldTrump unlike any other president in my
time, which goes back quite a ways anyof president he has with that MAGA
group the ability to say and the membersof Congress know I will primary you and
that will make their life very unpleasant.
I think the only reasonthat Joni aren't voted for
(50:53):
Hedgeworth is because shedidn't wanna get primaried.
Nobody else in my timehas had 50% of the party
say they're part of makeamerica Great again.
65% of them I think maybeeven last poll I saw.
But Doug's got a new one.
65% of Maga saidthe economy's getting better.
>> Bill Whalen (51:13):
You know, this to me makes for a very good poll down the road.
Doug.I remember there's a line in the movie
the King's Speech where I don't know ifyou guys saw the movie or not, but they're
having a party out in English countrysideand the future king of England and
his wife come to it and Churchill comesup to the the prince's wife and he says,
referring to Wallace way subsidy says,tell me madam, what is her hold on him?
(51:34):
Why is he, why is he so stuck on her?
And that to me, gentlemen,
is kinda the fundamental questionhere with Republicans and Trump.
Why are they so stuck on it?
>> Douglas Rivers (51:42):
So in the first month of the Trump administration,
the flurry of activity,Elon Musk, you know,
willing to threaten people withexpensive primaries and you know,
that really had Republicansin Congress cowed.
I don't think it's weakened that much.
But I do think if they weredoing those nominations again,
(52:05):
more of them would have gone down.
>> David Brady (52:08):
Yeah, rarely in American politics does someone come along like
a Donald Trump.
>> Bill Whalen (52:13):
Yeah.
>> David Brady (52:14):
That has that, that kind of appeal.
I mean, Yui long had it in Louisiana,
Franklin Roosevelt hadit to a certain extent.
But I just don't think anybody inthe time I've been following politics,
I just don't see anybody who has thatkind of generates that kinda loyalty.
>> Douglas Rivers (52:33):
Even FDR was unable to primary Democratic congressman.
>> David Brady (52:39):
Yeah, 1938.
>> Bill Whalen (52:40):
That's right. He learned that lesson in the court
packing, I believe.
But I'm reminded of Charlie Sheen,the actor Charlie Sheen,
who famously flipped out, lost a lot ofmoney by getting fired from his sitcom.
And Charlie Sheen went on a rage andhe coined a hashtag.
You know what the hashtag was?
Winning.
And that to me seems tothe Trump presidency right now,
no matter what happens, he's gonnago out there with hashtag winning.
>> Douglas Rivers (53:02):
Have you had enough winning yet, Bill?
>> David Brady (53:05):
I don't.
I hope the president doesn'twatch this because I.
I'm not sure he'd really liketo be compared to Charlie Sheen.
>> Bill Whalen (53:13):
No, >> Douglas Rivers
the limits of our expertise here.
>> David Brady (53:17):
Yes.
>> Bill Whalen (53:18):
So that's probably a good note to sign off on.
So, gentlemen, thank you very much foryour political acumen.
Dave, when's the book coming out?
>> David Brady (53:24):
September or October.
I'm sorry.
>> Bill Whalen (53:26):
Soon. And
the title of it again isFrom Dominance to Parity.
>> David Brady (53:29):
Yeah, >> Bill Whalen
not P-A-R-O-D-Y.
Right, right, right.
Well, depends on how you read the book.
>> Bill Whalen (53:37):
[LAUGH] Okay.
David Brady, Doug Rivers,thanks so much for your time.
I enjoyed the conversation as always,gentlemen.
>> David Brady (53:41):
Thank you.
>> Douglas Rivers (53:42):
Thanks, Bill.
>> Bill Whalen (53:43):
You've been listening to matters of policy and
politics at the Hoover Institutionpodcast devoted to governance and
balance of power.
If you've enjoyed this podcast,please will get rate, review and
subscribe to our show.
If you wouldn't mind,please spread the word.
Tell us your friends about us.
The Hoover Institution isall over social media.
We have Facebook, Instagram and X feeds.
Our X handle is @hooverinst.
That's H-O-O-V-E-R-I-N-S-T.
(54:04):
Dave Brady is not on social media,though I keep waiting every day for
him to show up on TikTok.
Maybe one of the bandits that'llbuild a merge on TikTok.
Doug Rivers, though, is on X.
His X handle is @doug_rivers andI mentioned his excellent polling firm,
YouGov.
It too was on X.
Its handle is @yougov spelled Y-O-U-G-O-V.
I messed our website beginning inthe show, that is who hoover.org.
(54:26):
While you're there, do yourself a favorand sign up for the Hoover Daily Report,
which delivers the best work ofDave Brady and Doug Rivers to your inbox.
You'll get that weekdays for the HooverInstitution, this is Bill Whalen.
We'll be back soon with a new installmentof Matters of Policy and Politics.
Until then, take care.
Thanks for watching.
>> Presenter (54:42):
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