June 26, 2025 • 32 mins
To kick things off today we pick apart Paladin’s announcement that CEO Ian Purdy will step down and look at what the future could hold for the uranium miner.
We then venture to West Africa where Predictive shared their DFS numbers on the Bankan project, leading us to speculate who will make an approach for the developer.
Rounding off, we discuss the news that Astron & EnergyFuels received regulatory approvals in Victoria of all places as well as the announcement that Wildcat will embark on a share buyback.
.……………
TIMESTAMPS
(00:00) Introduction
(03:23) Is PDN’s leadership change cause for concern
(13:36) What does the future hold for takeover target PDI
(25:13) Should gold miners be doing M&A now?
(29:37) Astron get the all clear… in Victoria!
(31:09) A lithium developer does a share buyback
……………
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PARTNERS
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
That's that last ad you did for us.
Yeah. That was good.
You liked it? I actually did, yeah.
I thought that was one of the better ones for some reason.
Yeah, that's. Cool.
Yeah. So you're either getting better.
Or. That one just kind of.
That through. Hopefully we get let me let me
pull it out. I had to get better or that was
(00:21):
it, an anomaly. So.
So who still needs convincing now?
It's in the fin, So maybe it wasbecause of that, yeah.
Yeah, yeah, research back like. Research back.
There's a science behind it now.It's actually, do you know,
Yeah, a doctor in, you know, architectural and well-being.
Or do you know? Yeah, whatever his PhD is.
(00:42):
Yeah, wouldn't it be funny if you just gave us feedback on our
ads, you know, and then that's our ad for next week.
Yeah, you guys know what I agreewith.
That yeah, what are you? Gonna ramp up here, yeah.
Once you got there mate. Oh, sorry mate, it's just I'm
(01:04):
always reading this book. Yeah, I like to put this book
front and centre and yeah, I think you should just sit here
for me. Place it right there.
From now on, yeah, it's a quite a good book.
I should read it one day mate. You know what time reading hey.
Yeah. No, it's good.
It's good. It's really good one.
Have you read it? I've sort of perused it I would
say. Rocks, fossils and formations.
Discoveries through time. I hear the author is quite
(01:26):
switched. On Thomas RH Warwick.
Rings a bell mate, we've got a bit on the menu today.
Yeah, we do this stuff going howgood, how good of a sport was
Paul Natoli at the start there? What a what an absolute legend
that was Paul Natoli of GroundedConstruction, if it wasn't
immediately obvious from the beautiful lots of tones of his
voice giving us some guidance and feedback on our last ad.
A local hero go poorly mate. Like you said, lots happening in
(01:47):
commodities, lots happening in markets.
I, I'm excited commodities are, are sort of moving kind of
volatile. We've seen gold peel off and
everything. And when it comes to the
companies, mate, Paladin have made some changes at the helm.
Predictive came out with the DFSand I'm very keen to sort of dig
into how the M and A dynamics play out.
(02:08):
We've, we've seen about a year of action and I think we're
into, into crunch time there nowand.
They predicted the discovery. Can we predict who the buyer is
going to be? And we've got approvals in
Victoria of all places, as well as a junior in the lithium space
doing a buy back, so plenty to RIP through.
But first of all, this episode'smade possible by none other than
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(02:31):
business that just gets it done.It doesn't matter if you're an
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Doesn't even matter if you don'tknow the ore body is fully there
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(02:51):
And even better, they move superquickly, they can get creative
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Does it require JDJV to be funded and share the risk?
They get it done. Is it just a standard load and
(03:12):
hold like contract get it done? Mate I don't think we need to
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experienced team at MMS and get a taste of what stress free
rewards taste like. Now Ian Purdy has is the parting
palate and this came out in in an announcement yesterday.
Very curious framing of the announcement.
(03:32):
It was it was like it was it wasworded in a way that it made you
second guess. Hang on, he's as as he impaired,
he told the market and flagged in advance that he's leaving.
It was everything was about the appointment of this other guy.
You. Get the head scratcher right.
I saw some analysts sort of callit well, well, telegraphed or
words to that effect hadn't beensort of telegraphed so, so well
(03:53):
to us at least. And yeah, it sort of gets you
thinking, giving the given the nature of where this business is
AT and and the evolution. So Paul Hemborough is going to
step up, become managing director and CEO, always been
the CEOO since 2023. So he's got familiarity with
that, with the business, with the market.
(04:13):
Before that, he was at Rio Tintofor a long time as well as BHB,
had a good spell there. So I see Ian Perdy's going to
step down. He came into the business near
the beginning of 2020 when spot uranium was breaking through 30
bucks in that year. It was a very different
business. Obviously Langer Heinrich wasn't
(04:34):
even operational. They were talking about doing
PFS work on on the restart, so balance sheet needed.
Tidying up, I think they sold the the the non core project as
well. Yep, they sold Kayla Keira
within a month or so of him coming in.
And yeah, there's, there's been a fair bit to say the least,
that has happened through his tenure at the company.
But like you said, the wording of this one raises a bit of an
(04:56):
eyebrow and it's just worth chatting about and and getting
into a bit more I reckon. Why do you find it intriguing?
But for a couple of reasons, right let no doubt this, this
business is in a different position to what it was five
years ago. But there's been a lot of good
stuff and there's also been a couple question marks in the
last year or so. So to to name a couple that the
water shortage challenges last year, early last year.
(05:20):
The controversy around that merger with Fission?
Yeah, exactly that. That took a lot, a lot longer
than people who suspected it might.
You had, you know, all of a sudden too much water with the
the weather events earlier this year, you had reconciliation,
you know, question marks with the stockpiles there, class
actions following guidance beingmarked down and then guidance
(05:42):
being pulled entirely earlier this year.
So there's a few question marks on those points, but I think
it's quite simple, like a leaderof a mining company sets down
during ramp up. And that's just one of those
check box items that makes you peel into it a bit more and just
to make sure everything's in order.
It's a pretty sort of straightforward, and it's not
always A cause for concern, but it's it's worth digging into.
(06:04):
Yeah, Yeah. Sometimes it can be explained
away, but it's yeah, one of those one of those things that
you see happen and, and, and maybe they're in a different
phase of ramp up, like they've been ramping up for a while.
But yeah, there's. Because it's a race that
project, you know, the it's not the the mind or gone through the
the plant just yet. So it's a bit of a different
based. Yeah, so tell me about the
wording in the announcement. Well, I feel like there seems to
(06:25):
be a bit of ambiguity. So taking a phrase planned and
rigorous succession process involving executive search
specialists, first question markis like you, you know, you're
hiring search specialists, but you made an internal hire.
Now fair enough. Maybe you just want to vet the
field and make sure you've got the perfect candidate for the
(06:46):
job. But then you sort of dig in a
bit deeper and they sort of say an interim COO process has been
established within Paladin in the event that ACO transition
period is required. That seems to kind of contradict
the the planned approach that they mentioned just.
Before it's the, the wording interim.
Interim is something you've kindof put in place when there's an
(07:08):
unplanned thing that happened, yeah.
When things happen a bit more sudden.
Abruptly, yeah, which happens but but the but it kind of is
contrary to the well flagged andalso the the planned wording
that we see in the other parts of the announcement and analysts
remarks since but but Peddie's not stepping away straight away.
He's hanging around until mid-december.
He's available. So there's a six month, quite a
(07:29):
lengthy notice period in there as opposed to living abruptly,
which is like a more more promising sign than it could be
the case. Yeah.
So, so Paul will become CEO fromthe beginning of September and
Perdia said he will remain thereand that's sort of clear within
the the notice period, which canbe activated by both himself or
or the company, but that would run until December given it's a
(07:53):
six month kind of period. And I think it's worth flagging
now like different CE OS suit companies at different stages.
And I think it's incredibly rareto have one CEO that is the the
perfect person to be the, the one that raises the capital and
does the exploration phase, you know, discovers a project.
If that's the type of company for, to developing an asset, for
(08:15):
to ramping it up and then managing it in steady state, I
think that's incredibly rare. And I think it's a justified
statement to say that you have different people with different
skill sets that are appropriate for managing a business at
different times. Added to that, I think it's
incredibly rare you get the perfect time for someone to step
down. Like, like, I mean, Jake Klein
(08:36):
recently, he's sort of stepping down at, at evolution seems to
be in kind of textbook. It's, it's gone too well.
You know, the gold price has ripped.
It's an opportune time. It's been there 15 years.
But in most cases, like you're putting fires out at one point
or another. So there's always going to kind
of be question marks, but I think I think it is pretty valid
(08:57):
to keep in mind that different people arrive for companies at
different times in in the company's life cycle.
I think that I think that argument is like, surely, yeah,
it's valid. But I feel like it's much more
valid when when you're talking about the kind of CEO who who
was in and around the mix in thediscovery phase really proven,
proven it up and taking it through through those early
development stages. Yeah, and that is, that's a
(09:19):
general statement. Yeah, right.
That's not a specific comment onPaladin that I'm making there.
Yeah. And then you've got then you've
got the kind of like the operator or the, Yeah, the
established operator, the guy who knows how to run a mining
company. Paladin was.
Paladin was a built mine. This is a restart project now.
He had to do a lot in relation to the financing and also the
(09:39):
operational oversight to kind ofget things going in a in a
country that's not Australia, obviously all those sorts of
things. He wasn't the exploration guy at
the time he was appointed in 2020.
Was the view that he would run the uranium mining company?
Yes, it probably was so. Yeah, the the, the person to do
the capital raising component and to to build, build hype
(10:01):
around a stock and get all that in.
I mean you could say that's kindof part of any CE OS mandate.
But I take your point. I also think 5 to 6 years like
that, it's not an out of the ordinary tenure running,
running, running a company. If you're going to play devil's
advocate in this instance and and see see that side of it,
(10:23):
it's a relatively standard tenure, yeah, for a business,
but. What, why?
So why is this like, like key? Are there examples that come to
mind and everything where you'veseen ACEO depart during a
fragile period of a single assetdeveloper Strand line.
Life strand line. Yeah.
Yeah. It's funny you mentioned that
one because that was the one that came to mind.
Because I know that you you've got this rule that if you see
it, you you'd like, you know, you would sell your stock
(10:45):
because it's information asymmetry in that instance.
Yeah, but he. But that that time the CEO, he
actually he was an MD, he stepped off the board initially
remained I think CEO for a briefperiod of time and a.
Brief moment in. Transitioned out of the company,
but the moment you saw you saw him step down in some capacity
and he sold. His shirt and by all accounts,
(11:06):
you know, in that case, the perfect person to build the
project got it done on budget throughout COVID, which was
incredibly hard, but they had a whole host of different
challenges that they were cominginto.
And this was mineral sands. It's not, you know,
run-of-the-mill gold mining. So that that was caused for for
concern in that in that instance.
Yeah. Do you think, do you think there
(11:27):
are parallels to parallel or do you think it's quite different?
I would say the the alarm bell went off straight away again and
ramp up has been nowhere near assmooth as they wanted and it
never is. But I wouldn't say I'm, I'm well
versed enough with, with the intricacies of their mining
operation at Langhahanrish to, to completely comment.
(11:48):
But you want to be doing a lot of homework now if you're
holding the stock, like a lot ofhomework, not to mention what we
spoke about last week in the context of how these guys are
kind of valued given what they've got already and where
uranium prices are currently, I think you're paying for a bit of
upside like we said there. So that would make me all the
more cautious. Yeah.
(12:10):
And context matters as well, right?
Like in the case of Alan and like that they are facing, I
think it's two class action lawsuit.
The, the class action lawsuits, the way they get funded is the
that there's like this whole kind of litigation funding
dynamic, but in effect, you wouldn't see the class action,
at least the first one, get to where it is if the the
(12:33):
litigation funders hadn't already introduced.
There's a very good probability that this this is going to, you
know, they want to get paid real.
There's, there's, there's, it's not quite like maybe it's a home
run case, maybe it's not, but it's pretty, you know, it's a,
it's probably a very highly probable outcome that that, you
know, shareholders win in the class action.
At which point? Quick as well, right?
Yeah. And at which point in time, like
(12:56):
is it inevitable that the the CEO of the company at that point
in time has to step down as a result of the you know the
optics, the the pushback from proxy advisors, all that kind of
stuff? Like is it?
Is it maybe pre emptive in expectation of losing the class
action to? It could be, I don't know, but
that that would be a better explanation If you own the stock
(13:17):
than than you know something relating to information
asymmetry. Yeah, that wouldn't be bad.
Yeah, that that would and the stock went up, the stock went
up. So I think, I think the market
thought, you know, this is a good thing.
Exactly. Yeah, it'd be that class action
would be an interesting part of the the business to to follow
and and see where that kind of takes it.
Yeah, how about predictive? Right.
(13:39):
We've got a few question marks about predictive.
They came out with their DFS. So they obviously own the bank
hand project in Guinea of all places.
And I think we're curious to to ask a question, is there much
kind of meat left on the bone for investors at this stage?
And what and what is the next chapter of this takeover saga
that we saw start up with Percy is coming into the the company
(14:01):
and taking a stake sort of 2/3 of the way through last year.
So Yep, yeah, worth sharing a couple of the numbers.
And what are the what are the headline numbers that you saw on
the study? So 250,000 oz per annum is the
production guide for 12 years ofmine life at an all in
sustaining cost the bit over 1000 US an ounce.
The reserve grade is close to 1.8g per ton, but the
(14:25):
underground is much closer to four and that will time with
that the mine plan we'll speak to in a second MPV 5 of 2.5
billion and an IRR of 46% using a 2400 gold price.
And the last detail I mentioned is that the CapEx is about US
$460 million there, big CapEx. But this is a quality mine when
(14:48):
it's going, there's no doubt. Yeah, exactly.
So if if we compare and contrastthe PFS which came out in early
2024 with the DFS, there's a fewdifferent details to highlight
and there's a bit of a difference approach.
And we sort of show on screen now what a bit of this looks
like. So they're going for a smaller
(15:09):
Neb pit and that is saying the strip ratio reduced pretty
significantly from 4.6 to 1 to 1.9 to 1.
So it's a much smaller pit with this steeper pit walls.
But what they're going to do is they're going to attack the
underground much earlier. They're going to go at it from
the GBE pit and they're going tostart this whilst they are
(15:31):
constructing the plant. So by the time the plant is good
to go at sort of year 0, if you like, they've already developed
out the decline to that high grade part of the ore body.
And that they can just be underground mining contributing
what they sort of call at least 25% of fresh ore from the
(15:51):
beginning. So it's a, it's quite a
different approach and it'll make sense if you sort of look
at the the graphics that we're we're showing.
But there's a few other differences in approach as well.
They've gone for slightly smaller throughput.
So instead of 5.5, they've gone for 4.5 million tons per annum.
And they've also seen the grade increase.
So that's gone from kind of close to 1.6 to 1.8.
(16:13):
And the overall output is down 20,000 oz per annum.
But they're mining that at a more competitive cost.
So ultimately, you see in the financials, the MPV up 140% from
the PFS, which is a substantial lift.
And as anyone listening to this would know, the gold price has
been on a tear. So they have factored in a gold
(16:34):
price that is 600 US bucks higher than what they'd assumed
previously. So all that in the context of
the CapEx staying pretty steady?They yeah, those are those are
those are certainly really tidy numbers.
This is going to be like a phenomenal mine.
And the visuals are awesome too that really help you kind of
contextualize it. And they changed the macro
assumptions there, including thegold price.
I just wish they had have changed the discount rate too.
(16:57):
Kudos. The same day that came out,
Astral put out their own study on on what's PFS and like big
props to them. They put a sensible 8% discount
rate on a, you know, a goldfields kind of single asset
gold project. It's, you know, that's that's
much more reflective of of what should be in these study
numbers. I'm starting a petition like and
(17:17):
and this, you know, predictors in Guinea and the argument is,
well, everyone else does it. You're going to get comped
everyone else. So you have to use, you have to
use MPV 5%. Not anymore mate, starting
petition. But I don't care if you're in
Goldfields or Guinea and PV eights.
Let's just start with that. Hard to argue with that if you
are going to get in the the PDI campus.
Astral here to cause a bit of a bit of conflict.
(17:38):
I think they're using a a decently lower gold price
assumption. Yeah, yeah, yeah, you're right.
You are 100% right on that front.
Yeah, I thought the astral numbers are tidy as well.
Close to 100,000 oz per annum operation.
Yeah, that's. That's shaping up to be like a
very financial project, there's no doubt.
Yeah, 13 years of mining on a 19year life, as as they put it.
(17:59):
It's an interesting one to follow.
Hey. Yep, Yep.
But refresh me on the latest kind of corporate stuff going on
with Predictive. I mean, Perseus obviously picked
up that stack from Capital Drilling now then then we saw
Zijin and Lundin actually enter.The cap structure, not montage.
Yeah. So Perseus went and took a 14%
state mid 2024. Within a month or so, they
(18:21):
stepped that up to almost 20%. At that point, everyone kind of
thinks, you know, they've got their foot on this.
And they did it kind of interestingly because the stock
had traded up to nearly 30 cents, dipped briefly, and they
scooped up their stake at closerto $0.20.
And then it bounces right back up.
So subsequently, in February of this year, we see Lundin and
(18:43):
Zijin take a cumulative 10% mistake.
Now they invested $69 million at26 and a half cents and the
stock just ripped pretty much. So this dilution took Perseus
below 18% and all of a sudden you've got a company that's kept
closer to a billion dollars as opposed to the whatever 6 or
(19:04):
$700 million that had been prior.
So it jumps up more than 30% andit's traded at that elevated
level since. So kind of between 35 and 45 ish
cents for the last six months. That's that's the playing field
set right there. Competitive.
It is, it is. And obviously Jeff who we had on
the show around that time, he and the team at Percy's were
(19:26):
were less than impressed with how things had kind of played
out and more to the point that the valuation that the company
was trading at and it's attractiveness given the the
CapEx that then would need to bespent.
So they were. Sure, he was unimpressed without
played out. I think he was just, he was just
trying to make us a point on. Like valuation on valuation,
yeah, yeah. So framing it as a kind of
(19:49):
billion dollars plus maybe another 30% to take it out plus
700 Aussie means your $2 billionin in the hole and you need to
make a lot of money and do a lotof mining to earn that back.
So they're sitting on a. You have to.
Start shooting a gold price that's yeah, north of maybe your
internal deck is. And is that a sensible or
(20:11):
prudent thing to do? Yeah.
And and what is the payback kindof period given the the
volatility in political stability in in country as well.
But there's just now sit on a decent little hyper profit that
they can cash in should that time come.
But that's how things kind of stand.
And I think it's interesting to,to quickly actually have a chat
about Guinea and understand where they're at because they've
(20:34):
been seeing a lot of changes, right?
What's changing? So you, you remember just a
couple weeks ago, maybe 3 or 4 weeks ago now, we saw hundred
22150 tenements be pulled by thegovernment.
Now there was, there was varyingviews, predictive work swept up
in this. So they had their Argo and
Bokoro, which weren't really going to play a substantial role
(20:57):
in this, but they, they got pulled off them essentially.
And there was sort of question mark.
So some people who operate in countries said some of the some
of the revocation of permits waswarranted.
You know, people hadn't held it up their end of the bargain.
Other people didn't agree with that so much.
But if you look at what these guys have factored into the DFS,
(21:20):
you've got 6% on royalties goingat the door, you got a 30% tax
rate assumed and you've got a 15% free carried interest.
So they are yet to receive thosefinal permits, but that that's
the the, the distribution that they have factored into their
modeling. And yeah, when when you sort of
(21:41):
comparable out that's on par with a lot of West Africa and
remains to be seen whether that gets the the all clear, but
that's sort of in line with the recent mining code.
So the billion dollar question is who?
Who gets the chocolates at the end of all this?
An alternate party coming in andtaking it out.
As you know it's complicated given the big stakes we we see
(22:02):
there, but one interesting name to throw in the ring just to
talk about in general really is London gold.
They now kept at 19 billion Aussie, they have run over 120%
year to date and they got Newmont on the register with 32%
of the business there. You ever?
Seen you ever seen a valuation like that for a single asset
operation? I don't know if I.
Have I I not saying one that comes to mind it.
(22:25):
Probably is, but someone else We're on Roads Ridge.
Different base. They have executed really well
in Ecuador to to put it simply, they're now sitting with US 450
million in net cash. They did 170 million in free
cash in 1/4. They're paying dividends and I
think it's pretty marvelous execution given the the tough
(22:48):
jurisdiction. You know, there were a lot of
question marks when when they went in there and started
building router del military andthey've they've done a great
job. Tremendous job, took a long term
for you, like we're on side withthe government and like a
reaping the rewards of it, yeah.But they are still a $19 billion
business with an asset in, well a single asset in, in Ecuador.
And valuation aside, I'm, I'm super impressed.
(23:10):
But I'm curious if they are looking, they've spoken very
much about an exploration focus and capital returns, you know,
dividends and, and, and the likethat they're going to start
paying out. And I guess I have more question
marks about that state sitting within the Lundeen family, how
they think about it. They sort of famously have 25 to
30% stakes in a lot of companiesand their MO has not been taking
(23:34):
out companies at this stage. It's it's often been a lot
earlier stage than this. So I don't know how they would
think about it and I'd be very curious to explore that, but.
I don't think the I think Londongold would be the vehicle to to
embark in in West Africa for forthe London.
So I imagine that that might maintain a very kind of its own
(23:59):
thing, South American focus. I think you'd be right.
I think it becomes a different base and they've got a host of
vehicles as well as spinning up new ones.
Seeing the seeing the the simultaneous placement from
London family and and and Zejin at the same time into into
predictive, I think was probablymore telling if the London's
(24:19):
like a horse that they're backing from a from a company
perspective on their W African gold endeavours.
And that's montage, yeah. You've got the inside line to
Zejan as well, so. Well, that's that's the other
curious thing, right? If you've got both both Lundin
family and Zejan backing montagelike normally you, you one of
(24:40):
the things that kind of kills the competitive spirit in MNA in
in mining is the fact that No2 Chinese parties have a bid
against each other. They always there's just this
implicit understanding that, youknow, we're we're we're gonna
like one of us will get it, but it's but both not gonna get into
a bidding wall. Yeah, that kind of sucks.
And now you've got, you've got the like removing the Londones
from from the potential of the acompetitive bidding outcome as
(25:03):
well, because they're, you know,they're on side with Zijin and
this vehicle anyway. Maybe the Russians will come,
not go to operate, but that would be an incredibly complex,
yeah, proposition given, given where we're at.
But yeah, I mean, Zijin made a big splash buying AKM not too
long ago. It was a big transaction.
So we'll see what what their approach is going forward.
(25:25):
But yeah, I mean, I wonder giventhe the road ahead that
predictive has in wanting to start construction early next
year, does a perspective buyer just let them start marching
down that that lonesome road andbe there when they perhaps
stumble or come into challenges?Do they get creative and provide
some sort of financing to get their way in the in the door?
(25:47):
You know, lots of different shapes and sizes that could take
but. Key catalyst here is, and I
think it's the end of this calendar year, that's when
you've got the at the moment you've Percy submitted a full
change of control. They have to 50% share that
upside with Capital Drilling whothey bought their stake off by
the end of the year. Capital Drilling is no longer
(26:07):
entitled to that extra 50%. So, you know, Percy's would save
money, but but having said that,do you think that like Percy's
will be sensible and and not kind of pay overs and they might
actually be quite willing to sell their stake to to Lundine
and Zijan jointly or more more likely, in my opinion, montage
(26:30):
because I just, I just interpreted that as like a
montage stake more than anything.
Yeah, or or or throw this one out there, Montage and Percy's
merger, then then take over predictive.
That'd really take the competitive attention out of the
process, but it would be, yeah, it'd be interesting.
I mean, the big next step for predictive is to get the
exploitation permit that comes through there, you know, on the
(26:53):
cusp of them to sort financing and find their way to developing
the asset. But yeah, a lot on the table.
I, I'm aligned with your thinking on Perseus being been
conservative in, in approaching M&A.
They've, they've got a lot to spend.
They've got to develop Nyang Saga as well.
And yeah, I, I can't see them atthis sort of valuation coming
(27:16):
in, but we'll, we'll see what happens.
It's, it's pretty tricky to be competitive versus like Chinese
capital to for the number of reasons we've already talked
about, not least of which they take a strategic view as opposed
to like having to back out an MPV using a rational gold price
or anything like that. So, yeah, it could, it could, it
just could go that way. That's OK.
(27:37):
PCs will make money. Pretty sure shareholders will
make money. The Chinese will build a mine
like happy days. But yeah, yeah, I think more
important thing is just be sensible, like from a capital
allocation perspective when likein these times, there's a gold
miner as well, because it's, it's this is like a window.
Everyone's making good money nowall of a sudden the the
(27:57):
valuations of the development opportunities have come up a lot
even in West Africa where they were not a lot like just 12
months ago. So that's, that's going to be a
big differentiator between yeah,the gold miners like in 12
months time. This is now is how they were
thoughtful about a creative opportunities to use their
capital right now when valuations are are elevated.
(28:21):
Yeah, a lot of the London familywill be, you know very closely
familiar with with red back in West Africa and the kind of
absurd valuation they received in selling that out in the last
bull market cycle. I mean they did that a bit
before it sort of happened like 2010 ish time frame is it?
The more tiny one. Had Yeah, Tasira.
(28:44):
And Tasira. Yeah.
Saltikinros. Yes, Saltikinros and that was a
$7.7 billion transaction. They all made a multi the.
Landings did. Or they were part of that
vehicle gotcha and isn't? That funny because.
Kinross paid the price. Kinross.
Kinross then had to. Well, wasn't that Kinross that
sold through to Del Norte to theLondon Gold?
(29:09):
A bit later on. As a probably as a result of
that, Patras thank Kinross twice.
I didn't. I actually didn't know that.
Yeah. So it's it's interesting and I'm
completely with you there. Like this is the time where you
want to see these gold. He's just piling up cash.
You don't want to see anyone blowing their brains out on M&A,
not the PDI shareholders will want to hear that, but they want
to stay disciplined and and you know fill up the bank account in
(29:32):
the good times and deploy it in the in the bad times.
Wow. But we should mention a couple
other stories just quickly. Astrin and their JV partners
Energy Fuels have received the approvals for what there is the
working plan for construction and operations.
So they have the Donald Rare Earth and Mineral Sands project
(29:53):
in in the state of Victoria, which isn't known for handing
out mining permits so easily. And yeah, they're off to get
sort of financing sorted now andget their ducks in a row there.
But is that final? Approval or is this still?
Yep, final approval, final majorregulatory.
Approval, right? Yeah.
Stock rocketed up sort of 47% yesterday and another 10% today.
(30:17):
So, yeah, I'm really curious to see how that goes.
And it's good in a way there's been a more constructive outlook
on the value add in in regional towns there that well potential
operation could play. Isn't this isn't this kind of
curious? The two the two payments in
Victoria have been the first payments in party forever.
Is that VHMS, Gaussian and now this?
(30:40):
Are those like mineral sands projects?
Like Gaussian will argue they'rea rare earth project too, but.
And how weird is that? Strategic matter.
It's strategic. So like the amount of like land
you actually have to disturb on a mineral science project is
like vastly greater than you would a normal mine, but the
Victorians somehow are more comfortable with that than they
(31:01):
are just allowing a normal mine anyway.
Don't understand Victorians? It's an interesting one.
And the last thing to mention, another quick story here,
Wildcat, they have seen their market cap fall pretty
dramatically to $190 million. They have $60 million in the
bank and this is not something you say everyday they're doing a
(31:23):
buyback 5,000,000 bucks worth. So back in themselves, back in
the value that Taba Taba has and.
Unusual circumstances. They're they're, they're trying
to say they're cheap. Yeah.
Yeah, they're signalling to the market and had a little bounce
on the back of it, but. They've still got plenty in the
bank and they're on go slow moderight now, so they're not at
(31:43):
risk of regretting using the cash for the buyback in the near
term. Yeah, it wouldn't.
Look, good. If you had to do a raise, you
have a lower price later on. Yeah, but a lot that they've
backed themselves into this one.So we'll see what happens.
Lithium price is at a real low ebb and doesn't seem to be
changing, but maybe we'll see a couple cracks come through in
(32:05):
the near term future and we'll be off to the races again.
Couple of partners to thank mate.
Thank you to Mineral Mining Services, Grounded sand, Big
ground support, K Drew and CrossBoundary Energy.
Voodoo. Voodoo.
Now remember, I'm an idiot. JD is an idiot.
If you thought any of this was anything other than
entertainment, you're an idiot and you need to read out a
disclaimer.
That's that last ad you did for us.
Yeah. That was good.
You liked it? I actually did, yeah.
I thought that was one of the better ones for some reason.
Yeah, that's. Cool.
Yeah. So you're either getting better.
Or. That one just kind of.
That through. Hopefully we get let me let me
pull it out. I had to get better or that was
(00:21):
it, an anomaly. So.
So who still needs convincing now?
It's in the fin, So maybe it wasbecause of that, yeah.
Yeah, yeah, research back like. Research back.
There's a science behind it now.It's actually, do you know,
Yeah, a doctor in, you know, architectural and well-being.
Or do you know? Yeah, whatever his PhD is.
(00:42):
Yeah, wouldn't it be funny if you just gave us feedback on our
ads, you know, and then that's our ad for next week.
Yeah, you guys know what I agreewith.
That yeah, what are you? Gonna ramp up here, yeah.
Once you got there mate. Oh, sorry mate, it's just I'm
(01:04):
always reading this book. Yeah, I like to put this book
front and centre and yeah, I think you should just sit here
for me. Place it right there.
From now on, yeah, it's a quite a good book.
I should read it one day mate. You know what time reading hey.
Yeah. No, it's good.
It's good. It's really good one.
Have you read it? I've sort of perused it I would
say. Rocks, fossils and formations.
Discoveries through time. I hear the author is quite
(01:26):
switched. On Thomas RH Warwick.
Rings a bell mate, we've got a bit on the menu today.
Yeah, we do this stuff going howgood, how good of a sport was
Paul Natoli at the start there? What a what an absolute legend
that was Paul Natoli of GroundedConstruction, if it wasn't
immediately obvious from the beautiful lots of tones of his
voice giving us some guidance and feedback on our last ad.
A local hero go poorly mate. Like you said, lots happening in
(01:47):
commodities, lots happening in markets.
I, I'm excited commodities are, are sort of moving kind of
volatile. We've seen gold peel off and
everything. And when it comes to the
companies, mate, Paladin have made some changes at the helm.
Predictive came out with the DFSand I'm very keen to sort of dig
into how the M and A dynamics play out.
(02:08):
We've, we've seen about a year of action and I think we're
into, into crunch time there nowand.
They predicted the discovery. Can we predict who the buyer is
going to be? And we've got approvals in
Victoria of all places, as well as a junior in the lithium space
doing a buy back, so plenty to RIP through.
But first of all, this episode'smade possible by none other than
Mineral Mining Services. MMS Mate, the mining services
(02:31):
business that just gets it done.It doesn't matter if you're an
established miner or you've got a beautiful ore body there
waiting to be ripped out, MMS isthe partner you can rely on to
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Doesn't even matter if you don'tknow the ore body is fully there
yet, The Tech services team can help you on the way.
Because the MMS team is stacked with experience by
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operation or a deposit you know,waiting to be tapped.
(02:51):
And even better, they move superquickly, they can get creative
in designing the right solution to unlock the value that is
sitting in the ground for the Max upside for your mining
company mate. I've seen them do everything.
JD your normal mining services contract they get it done.
Does it require JDJV to be funded and share the risk?
They get it done. Is it just a standard load and
(03:12):
hold like contract get it done? Mate I don't think we need to
say anymore. Get in touch with the Super
experienced team at MMS and get a taste of what stress free
rewards taste like. Now Ian Purdy has is the parting
palate and this came out in in an announcement yesterday.
Very curious framing of the announcement.
(03:32):
It was it was like it was it wasworded in a way that it made you
second guess. Hang on, he's as as he impaired,
he told the market and flagged in advance that he's leaving.
It was everything was about the appointment of this other guy.
You. Get the head scratcher right.
I saw some analysts sort of callit well, well, telegraphed or
words to that effect hadn't beensort of telegraphed so, so well
(03:53):
to us at least. And yeah, it sort of gets you
thinking, giving the given the nature of where this business is
AT and and the evolution. So Paul Hemborough is going to
step up, become managing director and CEO, always been
the CEOO since 2023. So he's got familiarity with
that, with the business, with the market.
(04:13):
Before that, he was at Rio Tintofor a long time as well as BHB,
had a good spell there. So I see Ian Perdy's going to
step down. He came into the business near
the beginning of 2020 when spot uranium was breaking through 30
bucks in that year. It was a very different
business. Obviously Langer Heinrich wasn't
(04:34):
even operational. They were talking about doing
PFS work on on the restart, so balance sheet needed.
Tidying up, I think they sold the the the non core project as
well. Yep, they sold Kayla Keira
within a month or so of him coming in.
And yeah, there's, there's been a fair bit to say the least,
that has happened through his tenure at the company.
But like you said, the wording of this one raises a bit of an
(04:56):
eyebrow and it's just worth chatting about and and getting
into a bit more I reckon. Why do you find it intriguing?
But for a couple of reasons, right let no doubt this, this
business is in a different position to what it was five
years ago. But there's been a lot of good
stuff and there's also been a couple question marks in the
last year or so. So to to name a couple that the
water shortage challenges last year, early last year.
(05:20):
The controversy around that merger with Fission?
Yeah, exactly that. That took a lot, a lot longer
than people who suspected it might.
You had, you know, all of a sudden too much water with the
the weather events earlier this year, you had reconciliation,
you know, question marks with the stockpiles there, class
actions following guidance beingmarked down and then guidance
(05:42):
being pulled entirely earlier this year.
So there's a few question marks on those points, but I think
it's quite simple, like a leaderof a mining company sets down
during ramp up. And that's just one of those
check box items that makes you peel into it a bit more and just
to make sure everything's in order.
It's a pretty sort of straightforward, and it's not
always A cause for concern, but it's it's worth digging into.
(06:04):
Yeah, Yeah. Sometimes it can be explained
away, but it's yeah, one of those one of those things that
you see happen and, and, and maybe they're in a different
phase of ramp up, like they've been ramping up for a while.
But yeah, there's. Because it's a race that
project, you know, the it's not the the mind or gone through the
the plant just yet. So it's a bit of a different
based. Yeah, so tell me about the
wording in the announcement. Well, I feel like there seems to
(06:25):
be a bit of ambiguity. So taking a phrase planned and
rigorous succession process involving executive search
specialists, first question markis like you, you know, you're
hiring search specialists, but you made an internal hire.
Now fair enough. Maybe you just want to vet the
field and make sure you've got the perfect candidate for the
(06:46):
job. But then you sort of dig in a
bit deeper and they sort of say an interim COO process has been
established within Paladin in the event that ACO transition
period is required. That seems to kind of contradict
the the planned approach that they mentioned just.
Before it's the, the wording interim.
Interim is something you've kindof put in place when there's an
(07:08):
unplanned thing that happened, yeah.
When things happen a bit more sudden.
Abruptly, yeah, which happens but but the but it kind of is
contrary to the well flagged andalso the the planned wording
that we see in the other parts of the announcement and analysts
remarks since but but Peddie's not stepping away straight away.
He's hanging around until mid-december.
He's available. So there's a six month, quite a
(07:29):
lengthy notice period in there as opposed to living abruptly,
which is like a more more promising sign than it could be
the case. Yeah.
So, so Paul will become CEO fromthe beginning of September and
Perdia said he will remain thereand that's sort of clear within
the the notice period, which canbe activated by both himself or
or the company, but that would run until December given it's a
(07:53):
six month kind of period. And I think it's worth flagging
now like different CE OS suit companies at different stages.
And I think it's incredibly rareto have one CEO that is the the
perfect person to be the, the one that raises the capital and
does the exploration phase, you know, discovers a project.
If that's the type of company for, to developing an asset, for
(08:15):
to ramping it up and then managing it in steady state, I
think that's incredibly rare. And I think it's a justified
statement to say that you have different people with different
skill sets that are appropriate for managing a business at
different times. Added to that, I think it's
incredibly rare you get the perfect time for someone to step
down. Like, like, I mean, Jake Klein
(08:36):
recently, he's sort of stepping down at, at evolution seems to
be in kind of textbook. It's, it's gone too well.
You know, the gold price has ripped.
It's an opportune time. It's been there 15 years.
But in most cases, like you're putting fires out at one point
or another. So there's always going to kind
of be question marks, but I think I think it is pretty valid
(08:57):
to keep in mind that different people arrive for companies at
different times in in the company's life cycle.
I think that I think that argument is like, surely, yeah,
it's valid. But I feel like it's much more
valid when when you're talking about the kind of CEO who who
was in and around the mix in thediscovery phase really proven,
proven it up and taking it through through those early
development stages. Yeah, and that is, that's a
(09:19):
general statement. Yeah, right.
That's not a specific comment onPaladin that I'm making there.
Yeah. And then you've got then you've
got the kind of like the operator or the, Yeah, the
established operator, the guy who knows how to run a mining
company. Paladin was.
Paladin was a built mine. This is a restart project now.
He had to do a lot in relation to the financing and also the
(09:39):
operational oversight to kind ofget things going in a in a
country that's not Australia, obviously all those sorts of
things. He wasn't the exploration guy at
the time he was appointed in 2020.
Was the view that he would run the uranium mining company?
Yes, it probably was so. Yeah, the the, the person to do
the capital raising component and to to build, build hype
(10:01):
around a stock and get all that in.
I mean you could say that's kindof part of any CE OS mandate.
But I take your point. I also think 5 to 6 years like
that, it's not an out of the ordinary tenure running,
running, running a company. If you're going to play devil's
advocate in this instance and and see see that side of it,
(10:23):
it's a relatively standard tenure, yeah, for a business,
but. What, why?
So why is this like, like key? Are there examples that come to
mind and everything where you'veseen ACEO depart during a
fragile period of a single assetdeveloper Strand line.
Life strand line. Yeah.
Yeah. It's funny you mentioned that
one because that was the one that came to mind.
Because I know that you you've got this rule that if you see
it, you you'd like, you know, you would sell your stock
(10:45):
because it's information asymmetry in that instance.
Yeah, but he. But that that time the CEO, he
actually he was an MD, he stepped off the board initially
remained I think CEO for a briefperiod of time and a.
Brief moment in. Transitioned out of the company,
but the moment you saw you saw him step down in some capacity
and he sold. His shirt and by all accounts,
(11:06):
you know, in that case, the perfect person to build the
project got it done on budget throughout COVID, which was
incredibly hard, but they had a whole host of different
challenges that they were cominginto.
And this was mineral sands. It's not, you know,
run-of-the-mill gold mining. So that that was caused for for
concern in that in that instance.
Yeah. Do you think, do you think there
(11:27):
are parallels to parallel or do you think it's quite different?
I would say the the alarm bell went off straight away again and
ramp up has been nowhere near assmooth as they wanted and it
never is. But I wouldn't say I'm, I'm well
versed enough with, with the intricacies of their mining
operation at Langhahanrish to, to completely comment.
(11:48):
But you want to be doing a lot of homework now if you're
holding the stock, like a lot ofhomework, not to mention what we
spoke about last week in the context of how these guys are
kind of valued given what they've got already and where
uranium prices are currently, I think you're paying for a bit of
upside like we said there. So that would make me all the
more cautious. Yeah.
(12:10):
And context matters as well, right?
Like in the case of Alan and like that they are facing, I
think it's two class action lawsuit.
The, the class action lawsuits, the way they get funded is the
that there's like this whole kind of litigation funding
dynamic, but in effect, you wouldn't see the class action,
at least the first one, get to where it is if the the
(12:33):
litigation funders hadn't already introduced.
There's a very good probability that this this is going to, you
know, they want to get paid real.
There's, there's, there's, it's not quite like maybe it's a home
run case, maybe it's not, but it's pretty, you know, it's a,
it's probably a very highly probable outcome that that, you
know, shareholders win in the class action.
At which point? Quick as well, right?
Yeah. And at which point in time, like
(12:56):
is it inevitable that the the CEO of the company at that point
in time has to step down as a result of the you know the
optics, the the pushback from proxy advisors, all that kind of
stuff? Like is it?
Is it maybe pre emptive in expectation of losing the class
action to? It could be, I don't know, but
that that would be a better explanation If you own the stock
(13:17):
than than you know something relating to information
asymmetry. Yeah, that wouldn't be bad.
Yeah, that that would and the stock went up, the stock went
up. So I think, I think the market
thought, you know, this is a good thing.
Exactly. Yeah, it'd be that class action
would be an interesting part of the the business to to follow
and and see where that kind of takes it.
Yeah, how about predictive? Right.
(13:39):
We've got a few question marks about predictive.
They came out with their DFS. So they obviously own the bank
hand project in Guinea of all places.
And I think we're curious to to ask a question, is there much
kind of meat left on the bone for investors at this stage?
And what and what is the next chapter of this takeover saga
that we saw start up with Percy is coming into the the company
(14:01):
and taking a stake sort of 2/3 of the way through last year.
So Yep, yeah, worth sharing a couple of the numbers.
And what are the what are the headline numbers that you saw on
the study? So 250,000 oz per annum is the
production guide for 12 years ofmine life at an all in
sustaining cost the bit over 1000 US an ounce.
The reserve grade is close to 1.8g per ton, but the
(14:25):
underground is much closer to four and that will time with
that the mine plan we'll speak to in a second MPV 5 of 2.5
billion and an IRR of 46% using a 2400 gold price.
And the last detail I mentioned is that the CapEx is about US
$460 million there, big CapEx. But this is a quality mine when
(14:48):
it's going, there's no doubt. Yeah, exactly.
So if if we compare and contrastthe PFS which came out in early
2024 with the DFS, there's a fewdifferent details to highlight
and there's a bit of a difference approach.
And we sort of show on screen now what a bit of this looks
like. So they're going for a smaller
(15:09):
Neb pit and that is saying the strip ratio reduced pretty
significantly from 4.6 to 1 to 1.9 to 1.
So it's a much smaller pit with this steeper pit walls.
But what they're going to do is they're going to attack the
underground much earlier. They're going to go at it from
the GBE pit and they're going tostart this whilst they are
(15:31):
constructing the plant. So by the time the plant is good
to go at sort of year 0, if you like, they've already developed
out the decline to that high grade part of the ore body.
And that they can just be underground mining contributing
what they sort of call at least 25% of fresh ore from the
(15:51):
beginning. So it's a, it's quite a
different approach and it'll make sense if you sort of look
at the the graphics that we're we're showing.
But there's a few other differences in approach as well.
They've gone for slightly smaller throughput.
So instead of 5.5, they've gone for 4.5 million tons per annum.
And they've also seen the grade increase.
So that's gone from kind of close to 1.6 to 1.8.
(16:13):
And the overall output is down 20,000 oz per annum.
But they're mining that at a more competitive cost.
So ultimately, you see in the financials, the MPV up 140% from
the PFS, which is a substantial lift.
And as anyone listening to this would know, the gold price has
been on a tear. So they have factored in a gold
(16:34):
price that is 600 US bucks higher than what they'd assumed
previously. So all that in the context of
the CapEx staying pretty steady?They yeah, those are those are
those are certainly really tidy numbers.
This is going to be like a phenomenal mine.
And the visuals are awesome too that really help you kind of
contextualize it. And they changed the macro
assumptions there, including thegold price.
I just wish they had have changed the discount rate too.
(16:57):
Kudos. The same day that came out,
Astral put out their own study on on what's PFS and like big
props to them. They put a sensible 8% discount
rate on a, you know, a goldfields kind of single asset
gold project. It's, you know, that's that's
much more reflective of of what should be in these study
numbers. I'm starting a petition like and
(17:17):
and this, you know, predictors in Guinea and the argument is,
well, everyone else does it. You're going to get comped
everyone else. So you have to use, you have to
use MPV 5%. Not anymore mate, starting
petition. But I don't care if you're in
Goldfields or Guinea and PV eights.
Let's just start with that. Hard to argue with that if you
are going to get in the the PDI campus.
Astral here to cause a bit of a bit of conflict.
(17:38):
I think they're using a a decently lower gold price
assumption. Yeah, yeah, yeah, you're right.
You are 100% right on that front.
Yeah, I thought the astral numbers are tidy as well.
Close to 100,000 oz per annum operation.
Yeah, that's. That's shaping up to be like a
very financial project, there's no doubt.
Yeah, 13 years of mining on a 19year life, as as they put it.
(17:59):
It's an interesting one to follow.
Hey. Yep, Yep.
But refresh me on the latest kind of corporate stuff going on
with Predictive. I mean, Perseus obviously picked
up that stack from Capital Drilling now then then we saw
Zijin and Lundin actually enter.The cap structure, not montage.
Yeah. So Perseus went and took a 14%
state mid 2024. Within a month or so, they
(18:21):
stepped that up to almost 20%. At that point, everyone kind of
thinks, you know, they've got their foot on this.
And they did it kind of interestingly because the stock
had traded up to nearly 30 cents, dipped briefly, and they
scooped up their stake at closerto $0.20.
And then it bounces right back up.
So subsequently, in February of this year, we see Lundin and
(18:43):
Zijin take a cumulative 10% mistake.
Now they invested $69 million at26 and a half cents and the
stock just ripped pretty much. So this dilution took Perseus
below 18% and all of a sudden you've got a company that's kept
closer to a billion dollars as opposed to the whatever 6 or
(19:04):
$700 million that had been prior.
So it jumps up more than 30% andit's traded at that elevated
level since. So kind of between 35 and 45 ish
cents for the last six months. That's that's the playing field
set right there. Competitive.
It is, it is. And obviously Jeff who we had on
the show around that time, he and the team at Percy's were
(19:26):
were less than impressed with how things had kind of played
out and more to the point that the valuation that the company
was trading at and it's attractiveness given the the
CapEx that then would need to bespent.
So they were. Sure, he was unimpressed without
played out. I think he was just, he was just
trying to make us a point on. Like valuation on valuation,
yeah, yeah. So framing it as a kind of
(19:49):
billion dollars plus maybe another 30% to take it out plus
700 Aussie means your $2 billionin in the hole and you need to
make a lot of money and do a lotof mining to earn that back.
So they're sitting on a. You have to.
Start shooting a gold price that's yeah, north of maybe your
internal deck is. And is that a sensible or
(20:11):
prudent thing to do? Yeah.
And and what is the payback kindof period given the the
volatility in political stability in in country as well.
But there's just now sit on a decent little hyper profit that
they can cash in should that time come.
But that's how things kind of stand.
And I think it's interesting to,to quickly actually have a chat
about Guinea and understand where they're at because they've
(20:34):
been seeing a lot of changes, right?
What's changing? So you, you remember just a
couple weeks ago, maybe 3 or 4 weeks ago now, we saw hundred
22150 tenements be pulled by thegovernment.
Now there was, there was varyingviews, predictive work swept up
in this. So they had their Argo and
Bokoro, which weren't really going to play a substantial role
(20:57):
in this, but they, they got pulled off them essentially.
And there was sort of question mark.
So some people who operate in countries said some of the some
of the revocation of permits waswarranted.
You know, people hadn't held it up their end of the bargain.
Other people didn't agree with that so much.
But if you look at what these guys have factored into the DFS,
(21:20):
you've got 6% on royalties goingat the door, you got a 30% tax
rate assumed and you've got a 15% free carried interest.
So they are yet to receive thosefinal permits, but that that's
the the, the distribution that they have factored into their
modeling. And yeah, when when you sort of
(21:41):
comparable out that's on par with a lot of West Africa and
remains to be seen whether that gets the the all clear, but
that's sort of in line with the recent mining code.
So the billion dollar question is who?
Who gets the chocolates at the end of all this?
An alternate party coming in andtaking it out.
As you know it's complicated given the big stakes we we see
(22:02):
there, but one interesting name to throw in the ring just to
talk about in general really is London gold.
They now kept at 19 billion Aussie, they have run over 120%
year to date and they got Newmont on the register with 32%
of the business there. You ever?
Seen you ever seen a valuation like that for a single asset
operation? I don't know if I.
Have I I not saying one that comes to mind it.
(22:25):
Probably is, but someone else We're on Roads Ridge.
Different base. They have executed really well
in Ecuador to to put it simply, they're now sitting with US 450
million in net cash. They did 170 million in free
cash in 1/4. They're paying dividends and I
think it's pretty marvelous execution given the the tough
(22:48):
jurisdiction. You know, there were a lot of
question marks when when they went in there and started
building router del military andthey've they've done a great
job. Tremendous job, took a long term
for you, like we're on side withthe government and like a
reaping the rewards of it, yeah.But they are still a $19 billion
business with an asset in, well a single asset in, in Ecuador.
And valuation aside, I'm, I'm super impressed.
(23:10):
But I'm curious if they are looking, they've spoken very
much about an exploration focus and capital returns, you know,
dividends and, and, and the likethat they're going to start
paying out. And I guess I have more question
marks about that state sitting within the Lundeen family, how
they think about it. They sort of famously have 25 to
30% stakes in a lot of companiesand their MO has not been taking
(23:34):
out companies at this stage. It's it's often been a lot
earlier stage than this. So I don't know how they would
think about it and I'd be very curious to explore that, but.
I don't think the I think Londongold would be the vehicle to to
embark in in West Africa for forthe London.
So I imagine that that might maintain a very kind of its own
(23:59):
thing, South American focus. I think you'd be right.
I think it becomes a different base and they've got a host of
vehicles as well as spinning up new ones.
Seeing the seeing the the simultaneous placement from
London family and and and Zejin at the same time into into
predictive, I think was probablymore telling if the London's
(24:19):
like a horse that they're backing from a from a company
perspective on their W African gold endeavours.
And that's montage, yeah. You've got the inside line to
Zejan as well, so. Well, that's that's the other
curious thing, right? If you've got both both Lundin
family and Zejan backing montagelike normally you, you one of
(24:40):
the things that kind of kills the competitive spirit in MNA in
in mining is the fact that No2 Chinese parties have a bid
against each other. They always there's just this
implicit understanding that, youknow, we're we're we're gonna
like one of us will get it, but it's but both not gonna get into
a bidding wall. Yeah, that kind of sucks.
And now you've got, you've got the like removing the Londones
from from the potential of the acompetitive bidding outcome as
(25:03):
well, because they're, you know,they're on side with Zijin and
this vehicle anyway. Maybe the Russians will come,
not go to operate, but that would be an incredibly complex,
yeah, proposition given, given where we're at.
But yeah, I mean, Zijin made a big splash buying AKM not too
long ago. It was a big transaction.
So we'll see what what their approach is going forward.
(25:25):
But yeah, I mean, I wonder giventhe the road ahead that
predictive has in wanting to start construction early next
year, does a perspective buyer just let them start marching
down that that lonesome road andbe there when they perhaps
stumble or come into challenges?Do they get creative and provide
some sort of financing to get their way in the in the door?
(25:47):
You know, lots of different shapes and sizes that could take
but. Key catalyst here is, and I
think it's the end of this calendar year, that's when
you've got the at the moment you've Percy submitted a full
change of control. They have to 50% share that
upside with Capital Drilling whothey bought their stake off by
the end of the year. Capital Drilling is no longer
(26:07):
entitled to that extra 50%. So, you know, Percy's would save
money, but but having said that,do you think that like Percy's
will be sensible and and not kind of pay overs and they might
actually be quite willing to sell their stake to to Lundine
and Zijan jointly or more more likely, in my opinion, montage
(26:30):
because I just, I just interpreted that as like a
montage stake more than anything.
Yeah, or or or throw this one out there, Montage and Percy's
merger, then then take over predictive.
That'd really take the competitive attention out of the
process, but it would be, yeah, it'd be interesting.
I mean, the big next step for predictive is to get the
exploitation permit that comes through there, you know, on the
(26:53):
cusp of them to sort financing and find their way to developing
the asset. But yeah, a lot on the table.
I, I'm aligned with your thinking on Perseus being been
conservative in, in approaching M&A.
They've, they've got a lot to spend.
They've got to develop Nyang Saga as well.
And yeah, I, I can't see them atthis sort of valuation coming
(27:16):
in, but we'll, we'll see what happens.
It's, it's pretty tricky to be competitive versus like Chinese
capital to for the number of reasons we've already talked
about, not least of which they take a strategic view as opposed
to like having to back out an MPV using a rational gold price
or anything like that. So, yeah, it could, it could, it
just could go that way. That's OK.
(27:37):
PCs will make money. Pretty sure shareholders will
make money. The Chinese will build a mine
like happy days. But yeah, yeah, I think more
important thing is just be sensible, like from a capital
allocation perspective when likein these times, there's a gold
miner as well, because it's, it's this is like a window.
Everyone's making good money nowall of a sudden the the
(27:57):
valuations of the development opportunities have come up a lot
even in West Africa where they were not a lot like just 12
months ago. So that's, that's going to be a
big differentiator between yeah,the gold miners like in 12
months time. This is now is how they were
thoughtful about a creative opportunities to use their
capital right now when valuations are are elevated.
(28:21):
Yeah, a lot of the London familywill be, you know very closely
familiar with with red back in West Africa and the kind of
absurd valuation they received in selling that out in the last
bull market cycle. I mean they did that a bit
before it sort of happened like 2010 ish time frame is it?
The more tiny one. Had Yeah, Tasira.
(28:44):
And Tasira. Yeah.
Saltikinros. Yes, Saltikinros and that was a
$7.7 billion transaction. They all made a multi the.
Landings did. Or they were part of that
vehicle gotcha and isn't? That funny because.
Kinross paid the price. Kinross.
Kinross then had to. Well, wasn't that Kinross that
sold through to Del Norte to theLondon Gold?
(29:09):
A bit later on. As a probably as a result of
that, Patras thank Kinross twice.
I didn't. I actually didn't know that.
Yeah. So it's it's interesting and I'm
completely with you there. Like this is the time where you
want to see these gold. He's just piling up cash.
You don't want to see anyone blowing their brains out on M&A,
not the PDI shareholders will want to hear that, but they want
to stay disciplined and and you know fill up the bank account in
(29:32):
the good times and deploy it in the in the bad times.
Wow. But we should mention a couple
other stories just quickly. Astrin and their JV partners
Energy Fuels have received the approvals for what there is the
working plan for construction and operations.
So they have the Donald Rare Earth and Mineral Sands project
(29:53):
in in the state of Victoria, which isn't known for handing
out mining permits so easily. And yeah, they're off to get
sort of financing sorted now andget their ducks in a row there.
But is that final? Approval or is this still?
Yep, final approval, final majorregulatory.
Approval, right? Yeah.
Stock rocketed up sort of 47% yesterday and another 10% today.
(30:17):
So, yeah, I'm really curious to see how that goes.
And it's good in a way there's been a more constructive outlook
on the value add in in regional towns there that well potential
operation could play. Isn't this isn't this kind of
curious? The two the two payments in
Victoria have been the first payments in party forever.
Is that VHMS, Gaussian and now this?
(30:40):
Are those like mineral sands projects?
Like Gaussian will argue they'rea rare earth project too, but.
And how weird is that? Strategic matter.
It's strategic. So like the amount of like land
you actually have to disturb on a mineral science project is
like vastly greater than you would a normal mine, but the
Victorians somehow are more comfortable with that than they
(31:01):
are just allowing a normal mine anyway.
Don't understand Victorians? It's an interesting one.
And the last thing to mention, another quick story here,
Wildcat, they have seen their market cap fall pretty
dramatically to $190 million. They have $60 million in the
bank and this is not something you say everyday they're doing a
(31:23):
buyback 5,000,000 bucks worth. So back in themselves, back in
the value that Taba Taba has and.
Unusual circumstances. They're they're, they're trying
to say they're cheap. Yeah.
Yeah, they're signalling to the market and had a little bounce
on the back of it, but. They've still got plenty in the
bank and they're on go slow moderight now, so they're not at
(31:43):
risk of regretting using the cash for the buyback in the near
term. Yeah, it wouldn't.
Look, good. If you had to do a raise, you
have a lower price later on. Yeah, but a lot that they've
backed themselves into this one.So we'll see what happens.
Lithium price is at a real low ebb and doesn't seem to be
changing, but maybe we'll see a couple cracks come through in
(32:05):
the near term future and we'll be off to the races again.
Couple of partners to thank mate.
Thank you to Mineral Mining Services, Grounded sand, Big
ground support, K Drew and CrossBoundary Energy.
Voodoo. Voodoo.
Now remember, I'm an idiot. JD is an idiot.
If you thought any of this was anything other than
entertainment, you're an idiot and you need to read out a
disclaimer.
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