January 23, 2025 • 13 mins
On this show we’ll be discussing what the circular economy is, why it’s not just about recycling and how investors could potentially benefit from it with fund manager and circular economy expert Jack Dempsey.
RUNNING ORDER:
01:20 - Part one: a short history of the circular economy
05:47 - Part two: investing in the circular economy
09:59 - Part three: the pros and cons of investing in the circular economy
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:07):
Welcome to the Investor Download thepodcast about the themes driving markets
and the economy now and in the future.
I'm your host, David Brett.
Until relatively recently, the worlddidn't need to worry about
the circular economy.
(00:29):
In fact, if you mentioned the phrasecircular economy just a few decades ago,
no one would have a clue as towhat you were talking about.
And I would guess even today, many of us,while hazarding a guess as to what
it is, would struggle to define it.
If I too were to describe it, itwould be about resource efficiency.
That's Jack Dempsey.
He's a fund manager at Schroders with aparticular focus on the circular economy.
(00:52):
So what it's really about is trying todecouple economic growth
from resource consumption.
In this show we'll be discussing what thecircular economy is, why it's not just
about recycling and how investorscould potentially benefit from it.
But in the first part of the show,we're going to take a step back in time.
(01:14):
On Apple Podcasts, Spotify orwherever you get your podcasts.
You're listening to the Investor Download.
The foundation of the circular economy isone where products are designed to be
reused, remanufactured and recycled.
It's a mindset that contrasts sharply withour traditional linear economy, which
follows a take, make dispose approach.
(01:35):
But to understand why the circular economyis so important now, we need to go back
over a quarter of a millennia tobefore the Industrial Revolution.
Back then, living standardswere generally low.
Most people lived in rural areas andrelied on agriculture to meet their needs.
Life expectancy was shorter.
Then the Industrial Revolution happened.
(01:57):
If you go back 150 years ago to theIndustrial Revolution, and you started to
actually see the world economy growing.
The Industrial Revolution shiftedeconomies from farm based systems
to industrialized manufacturing.
And despite protestations from somegroups, the machines began to
take over from manual labor.
Factories rose, which created jobs,improved wages, and access to goods.
(02:20):
Populations flocked to cities.
Improvements in technology, transportationand infrastructure led to increased
productivity, better access to education,and improvements in healthcare.
Ultimately, the industrial revolution laidthe groundwork for the modern economy.
Think about livingstandards today versus then.
You know, everyone's a lot better off.
For nearly 3000 years.
Economic growth averagedonly 0.01% per year.
(02:44):
In other words, global livingstandards were essentially flat.
According to the Bank of England.
But since 1750, GDP growth perperson has been 1.5% per year.
This means that each generation has beenaround a third better off than
the one before it, on average.
One way to see this is to compare how longit takes for the economy to double
(03:04):
in size in each of these two periods.
Between 1750 and now, based on the averagegrowth rates, this would
take around 50 years.
Before 1750 it would have taken 6000years for the economy to double in size.
But economic prosperity and rising livingstandards came with its own problems.
Overcrowding, pollution and sanitationbecame problems in cities, which
(03:28):
consumed more and more resources.
During that time, every unit of economicgrowth came with one unit of resource
consumption, and that'sbeen the same ever since.
And so that was fine forthe first 200 odd years.
And because the planet was a big placeand there was not a lot of people on it.
Improved living conditions and healthcarealso began to impact life expectancy.
In 1750, the global population wasestimated to be around 791 million.
(03:53):
Now things were accelerating.
Jump forward two centuries and thepopulation had trebled in size.
By 1950 it was 2.5 billion.
Not long after, the concept of acircular economy begins to take root.
Environmentalists began to raise alarmsabout pollution and resource depletion.
In 1966, economist Kenneth Bouldingfamously stated that the Earth is a closed
(04:18):
system, urging us to rethink ourconsumption patterns fueled
by a growing population.
So the population had about 3.5billion people in the 1970s.
And since then we started to, I guess, runinto a resource overconsumption problem.
So if you think about if we've got oneplanet full of resources and we produce
one unit a year, in the 1970s,we started to go above one.
(04:39):
And today, as you know, population hasgone from 3.5 billion to
well over 8 billion today.
We're now consuming at a rateof about 1.7 planet Earths.
And it doesn't end there.
By 2050, the UN forecast, the globalpopulation will reach nearly 10 billion
people, 25% more people onEarth than there are today.
And obviously everyonewants to have a nicer life.
(04:59):
And historically that's meant,you know, consuming more resources.
So it's it's going to be consuming at arate of about three
planet Earth by By 2050.
Which is clearly unsustainable.
Yet we and the economy still need to grow.
So the circular economy is all abouthow can we achieve that growth without
basically keep pushing ourselvesinto resource deficits?
Doing so doesn't just requirea change in consumption habits.
(05:22):
It requires businesses, consumers, andinvestors to focus on sustainable
practices that contributeto a circular economy.
Finding those companies and investmentsthat meet the requirements
of a circular economy.
That's coming up in thenext part of the show.
Get in touch with us by email at.
(05:43):
Or visit our website schroders.com/theinvestordownload.
In the 21st century, we findourselves at a critical juncture.
We're grappling with climate change overconsumption and waste management,
among many other issues.
So we're basically going to produce waytoo much waste, and we're going to
consume way too much resources doing that.
And if all those resources end up, as youknow, in the ocean or in landfills or in
(06:05):
dumps, you know, basically, you know,we're going to run into big problems.
The circular economy to sustainability isone pathway to finding growth and reducing
consumption, but it requires businessesand consumers to rethink their roles.
You know, if we all went back and lived incaves, like I'm sure there'd be
less carbon emissions, right?But no one wants to do that, right?
So it's like, how do youfind a way to to do both?
(06:26):
Dempsey says the circular economyshouldn't be seen in
reductive terms, either.
He's clear this isn't about not takingthat long haul flight
or eating less red meat.
It's how do we do all this stuffin, I guess, a more sustainable way by
just basically doing more with less,by being more resource efficient.
The other thing Dempsey says the circulareconomy is not is it's
not just about recycling.
(06:48):
It irks me a bit when peoplesay it's just a recycling fund.
It's a lot broader than that.So, I mean, we kind of invest in...
We've got five areas we invest in,basically, of which one of them is waste
and of which recyclingis a subset of waste.
So again, yeah, it's an interesting partand it's an area that we do invest in.
But it's only just one small segment.
It's just a lot morebroader and diversified than that.
And I think that's almost the attractionof the circular economy as a thematic is
(07:10):
that it is extremely broad and diversifiedand plays into lots of
bits of the economy.
And so it's not just a bet on I don't knowhow much people recycle or how much I
don't know, plastic bottles we use, ratherthan our paper bottles rather
than plastic, etc., etc..
So it's not just about recycling.
The circular economy is about findingthose businesses that can manage their
waste, harness renewable energy, anddevelop products designed
(07:32):
for longevity and reuse.
And they need to be profitable.
And so it's how can you identify thecompanies who can solve those problems?
And you know, which is I guess, good forthe world, but how can we
investors identify the companies who can,um, you know, solve that problem and get
paid very well to do it, because, youknow, that's what it's all about at the
end of the day, is find companieswho can grow their profits.
To help find those businesses, Jack andhis team have designed a scorecard
(07:54):
system, although perfection is unlikely.
As we score companies out of 100, thehighest company we have is 81 out of 100.
So it's pretty, um, it's pretty strict.Yeah.
There's no there's no suchthing as perfection as it says.
And even if you got close toit, there's always more to do.
So you always have to accept a little bitof waste, but it's always
like, what's the...
And I guess it comes down to like often,you know, you meet companies, you kind of
(08:16):
get a idea of the culture and the ethos oflike, are they striving to do more and
more and more, which is obviously what youwant to see because it's, you know, it's
often a it's a journeyrather than a destination.
Um, but, you know, the direction of travelis, I think is pretty
clear on all this stuff.
And again, it comes back to whyit's an attractive place to invest.
I think.
As an example, Dempsey cites two firms inthe US that make decking the type
you might have in your back garden.
(08:38):
And they basically realised a few yearsago that they can make decking that last
for 50 years by using composites, butespecially they can make composites using
recycled PVC, which is avery difficult plastic.
It's a topic for another pod, but it'sa very difficult plastic to recycle.
And they can take that.
And actually what that did is that itcreated this massive profit gap to
their peers who weren't using recycling.
And so you're starting to see companiesgo, well, actually, if I can take this
(09:00):
thing that's a waste and turn it into not,you know, not a cost, but
rather a kind of profit driver.
Um, it's natural because, you know, at theend of the day, CEOs of companies
get paid to drive profits.
The journey, however, is not withouthurdles that investors have
to work hard at to overcome.
Let's come back to the work that we do asinvestors of making sure that these
companies are aligned to the theme.
So in our circular score, which I kind ofreference the revenue part, but then we go
(09:23):
one step further and then the next leg isto look at actually
how a company operates.
So we're looking at, you know, the energythey use, the water they use, the
materials they use in their supply chain.
And we're basically getting an idea oflike, you know, they you know, if they're
talking the talk, are theyactually walking the walk.
And so it's kind of it's not just theproducts and services they're providing.
It's also how they go about it.
Many argue that the circulareconomy is not a panacea.
(09:47):
In the final part of the show, we'll lookat the pros and cons of investing
in the circular economy.
The shift to the circular economy requiresnot just innovation, but also a deep
cultural change in how weperceive value and ownership.
For every success story, there arechallenges, logistical issues, economic
(10:11):
disparities, and regulatory barriers.
So the question remains, is investingin a circular economy worth it?
The opportunities are absolutelyeverywhere to go after.
So again, if you can find a growth themethat we think is quite attractively valued
and you can really invest behind, thenthere's not a lot you
know not to like I think.There are cons though.
(10:31):
Being a theme makes it difficult to investin certain assets, particularly if
you want to be faithful to that theme.
That means potentially missing out onsome notable gains in areas such as AI.
AI has been touted as a potential saviourof humanity by its disciples, but it's
also a voracious consumerof natural resources.
You know, obviously, I guess over the lastyear you'd say, well, actually, I'd been
(10:53):
better off owning an AI fund or somethinglike that, which is completely fair.
You would have been.
But I guess, you know, given youcompletely differentiated exposure to what
you might get in, you know, your passivefund or your global growth fund or
whatever, which, you know, again, areincreasingly concentrated
in a small number of names.
And so it's again, it's a differentiatedgrowth exposure, which
um, you know, performs well despite notbeing as tech heavy as as I
(11:17):
guess many of the industry's.
Investors are beginning to recognise thevalue of circular economy initiatives.
Venture capital funds are increasinglydirecting resources towards
sustainable businesses.
In fact, the global market for circulareconomy solutions is projected to reach
trillions of dollars in the coming years.
And so you just increasingly see it comethrough and through, which I think is
quite positive from a, you know, I guess,you know, if you run a circular economy
(11:41):
fund, but also just as the universe grows,because there's more and more companies do
this sort of thing, you get a wider andwider investment universe, which which, I
guess, you know, can'tbe anything but positive.
The circular economy isnot just an economic model.
It's a mind shift.
It's an enduring growth thematic.
And it's going to,you know, it's going to play out whether
(12:03):
politics or legislation or whatever.
It's just, you know, the end of the day,unless we solve interplanetary travel, um,
quite soon, then, you know, we've onlygot one planet Earth to work with.
(12:23):
That was the show.We very much hope you enjoyed it.
You can subscribe to the investordownload wherever you get your podcasts.
And if you want to get in touch withus, it's schroderspodcasts@schroders.
com.
And you can find out much, much moreat schroders.
com/insights.
New shows drop everyother Thursday at 5 p.
m.UK time.
(12:44):
In the meantime, keep safe and go well.
The value of investments and the incomefrom them may go down as well as up, and
investors may not get back theamounts originally invested.
Past performance is not aguide to future performance.
The information is not an offer,solicitation or recommendation of any
funds, services or products, orto adopt any investment strategy.
Welcome to the Investor Download thepodcast about the themes driving markets
and the economy now and in the future.
I'm your host, David Brett.
Until relatively recently, the worlddidn't need to worry about
the circular economy.
(00:29):
In fact, if you mentioned the phrasecircular economy just a few decades ago,
no one would have a clue as towhat you were talking about.
And I would guess even today, many of us,while hazarding a guess as to what
it is, would struggle to define it.
If I too were to describe it, itwould be about resource efficiency.
That's Jack Dempsey.
He's a fund manager at Schroders with aparticular focus on the circular economy.
(00:52):
So what it's really about is trying todecouple economic growth
from resource consumption.
In this show we'll be discussing what thecircular economy is, why it's not just
about recycling and how investorscould potentially benefit from it.
But in the first part of the show,we're going to take a step back in time.
(01:14):
On Apple Podcasts, Spotify orwherever you get your podcasts.
You're listening to the Investor Download.
The foundation of the circular economy isone where products are designed to be
reused, remanufactured and recycled.
It's a mindset that contrasts sharply withour traditional linear economy, which
follows a take, make dispose approach.
(01:35):
But to understand why the circular economyis so important now, we need to go back
over a quarter of a millennia tobefore the Industrial Revolution.
Back then, living standardswere generally low.
Most people lived in rural areas andrelied on agriculture to meet their needs.
Life expectancy was shorter.
Then the Industrial Revolution happened.
(01:57):
If you go back 150 years ago to theIndustrial Revolution, and you started to
actually see the world economy growing.
The Industrial Revolution shiftedeconomies from farm based systems
to industrialized manufacturing.
And despite protestations from somegroups, the machines began to
take over from manual labor.
Factories rose, which created jobs,improved wages, and access to goods.
(02:20):
Populations flocked to cities.
Improvements in technology, transportationand infrastructure led to increased
productivity, better access to education,and improvements in healthcare.
Ultimately, the industrial revolution laidthe groundwork for the modern economy.
Think about livingstandards today versus then.
You know, everyone's a lot better off.
For nearly 3000 years.
Economic growth averagedonly 0.01% per year.
(02:44):
In other words, global livingstandards were essentially flat.
According to the Bank of England.
But since 1750, GDP growth perperson has been 1.5% per year.
This means that each generation has beenaround a third better off than
the one before it, on average.
One way to see this is to compare how longit takes for the economy to double
(03:04):
in size in each of these two periods.
Between 1750 and now, based on the averagegrowth rates, this would
take around 50 years.
Before 1750 it would have taken 6000years for the economy to double in size.
But economic prosperity and rising livingstandards came with its own problems.
Overcrowding, pollution and sanitationbecame problems in cities, which
(03:28):
consumed more and more resources.
During that time, every unit of economicgrowth came with one unit of resource
consumption, and that'sbeen the same ever since.
And so that was fine forthe first 200 odd years.
And because the planet was a big placeand there was not a lot of people on it.
Improved living conditions and healthcarealso began to impact life expectancy.
In 1750, the global population wasestimated to be around 791 million.
(03:53):
Now things were accelerating.
Jump forward two centuries and thepopulation had trebled in size.
By 1950 it was 2.5 billion.
Not long after, the concept of acircular economy begins to take root.
Environmentalists began to raise alarmsabout pollution and resource depletion.
In 1966, economist Kenneth Bouldingfamously stated that the Earth is a closed
(04:18):
system, urging us to rethink ourconsumption patterns fueled
by a growing population.
So the population had about 3.5billion people in the 1970s.
And since then we started to, I guess, runinto a resource overconsumption problem.
So if you think about if we've got oneplanet full of resources and we produce
one unit a year, in the 1970s,we started to go above one.
(04:39):
And today, as you know, population hasgone from 3.5 billion to
well over 8 billion today.
We're now consuming at a rateof about 1.7 planet Earths.
And it doesn't end there.
By 2050, the UN forecast, the globalpopulation will reach nearly 10 billion
people, 25% more people onEarth than there are today.
And obviously everyonewants to have a nicer life.
(04:59):
And historically that's meant,you know, consuming more resources.
So it's it's going to be consuming at arate of about three
planet Earth by By 2050.
Which is clearly unsustainable.
Yet we and the economy still need to grow.
So the circular economy is all abouthow can we achieve that growth without
basically keep pushing ourselvesinto resource deficits?
Doing so doesn't just requirea change in consumption habits.
(05:22):
It requires businesses, consumers, andinvestors to focus on sustainable
practices that contributeto a circular economy.
Finding those companies and investmentsthat meet the requirements
of a circular economy.
That's coming up in thenext part of the show.
Get in touch with us by email at.
(05:43):
Or visit our website schroders.com/theinvestordownload.
In the 21st century, we findourselves at a critical juncture.
We're grappling with climate change overconsumption and waste management,
among many other issues.
So we're basically going to produce waytoo much waste, and we're going to
consume way too much resources doing that.
And if all those resources end up, as youknow, in the ocean or in landfills or in
(06:05):
dumps, you know, basically, you know,we're going to run into big problems.
The circular economy to sustainability isone pathway to finding growth and reducing
consumption, but it requires businessesand consumers to rethink their roles.
You know, if we all went back and lived incaves, like I'm sure there'd be
less carbon emissions, right?But no one wants to do that, right?
So it's like, how do youfind a way to to do both?
(06:26):
Dempsey says the circular economyshouldn't be seen in
reductive terms, either.
He's clear this isn't about not takingthat long haul flight
or eating less red meat.
It's how do we do all this stuffin, I guess, a more sustainable way by
just basically doing more with less,by being more resource efficient.
The other thing Dempsey says the circulareconomy is not is it's
not just about recycling.
(06:48):
It irks me a bit when peoplesay it's just a recycling fund.
It's a lot broader than that.So, I mean, we kind of invest in...
We've got five areas we invest in,basically, of which one of them is waste
and of which recyclingis a subset of waste.
So again, yeah, it's an interesting partand it's an area that we do invest in.
But it's only just one small segment.
It's just a lot morebroader and diversified than that.
And I think that's almost the attractionof the circular economy as a thematic is
(07:10):
that it is extremely broad and diversifiedand plays into lots of
bits of the economy.
And so it's not just a bet on I don't knowhow much people recycle or how much I
don't know, plastic bottles we use, ratherthan our paper bottles rather
than plastic, etc., etc..
So it's not just about recycling.
The circular economy is about findingthose businesses that can manage their
waste, harness renewable energy, anddevelop products designed
(07:32):
for longevity and reuse.
And they need to be profitable.
And so it's how can you identify thecompanies who can solve those problems?
And you know, which is I guess, good forthe world, but how can we
investors identify the companies who can,um, you know, solve that problem and get
paid very well to do it, because, youknow, that's what it's all about at the
end of the day, is find companieswho can grow their profits.
To help find those businesses, Jack andhis team have designed a scorecard
(07:54):
system, although perfection is unlikely.
As we score companies out of 100, thehighest company we have is 81 out of 100.
So it's pretty, um, it's pretty strict.Yeah.
There's no there's no suchthing as perfection as it says.
And even if you got close toit, there's always more to do.
So you always have to accept a little bitof waste, but it's always
like, what's the...
And I guess it comes down to like often,you know, you meet companies, you kind of
(08:16):
get a idea of the culture and the ethos oflike, are they striving to do more and
more and more, which is obviously what youwant to see because it's, you know, it's
often a it's a journeyrather than a destination.
Um, but, you know, the direction of travelis, I think is pretty
clear on all this stuff.
And again, it comes back to whyit's an attractive place to invest.
I think.
As an example, Dempsey cites two firms inthe US that make decking the type
you might have in your back garden.
(08:38):
And they basically realised a few yearsago that they can make decking that last
for 50 years by using composites, butespecially they can make composites using
recycled PVC, which is avery difficult plastic.
It's a topic for another pod, but it'sa very difficult plastic to recycle.
And they can take that.
And actually what that did is that itcreated this massive profit gap to
their peers who weren't using recycling.
And so you're starting to see companiesgo, well, actually, if I can take this
(09:00):
thing that's a waste and turn it into not,you know, not a cost, but
rather a kind of profit driver.
Um, it's natural because, you know, at theend of the day, CEOs of companies
get paid to drive profits.
The journey, however, is not withouthurdles that investors have
to work hard at to overcome.
Let's come back to the work that we do asinvestors of making sure that these
companies are aligned to the theme.
So in our circular score, which I kind ofreference the revenue part, but then we go
(09:23):
one step further and then the next leg isto look at actually
how a company operates.
So we're looking at, you know, the energythey use, the water they use, the
materials they use in their supply chain.
And we're basically getting an idea oflike, you know, they you know, if they're
talking the talk, are theyactually walking the walk.
And so it's kind of it's not just theproducts and services they're providing.
It's also how they go about it.
Many argue that the circulareconomy is not a panacea.
(09:47):
In the final part of the show, we'll lookat the pros and cons of investing
in the circular economy.
The shift to the circular economy requiresnot just innovation, but also a deep
cultural change in how weperceive value and ownership.
For every success story, there arechallenges, logistical issues, economic
(10:11):
disparities, and regulatory barriers.
So the question remains, is investingin a circular economy worth it?
The opportunities are absolutelyeverywhere to go after.
So again, if you can find a growth themethat we think is quite attractively valued
and you can really invest behind, thenthere's not a lot you
know not to like I think.There are cons though.
(10:31):
Being a theme makes it difficult to investin certain assets, particularly if
you want to be faithful to that theme.
That means potentially missing out onsome notable gains in areas such as AI.
AI has been touted as a potential saviourof humanity by its disciples, but it's
also a voracious consumerof natural resources.
You know, obviously, I guess over the lastyear you'd say, well, actually, I'd been
(10:53):
better off owning an AI fund or somethinglike that, which is completely fair.
You would have been.
But I guess, you know, given youcompletely differentiated exposure to what
you might get in, you know, your passivefund or your global growth fund or
whatever, which, you know, again, areincreasingly concentrated
in a small number of names.
And so it's again, it's a differentiatedgrowth exposure, which
um, you know, performs well despite notbeing as tech heavy as as I
(11:17):
guess many of the industry's.
Investors are beginning to recognise thevalue of circular economy initiatives.
Venture capital funds are increasinglydirecting resources towards
sustainable businesses.
In fact, the global market for circulareconomy solutions is projected to reach
trillions of dollars in the coming years.
And so you just increasingly see it comethrough and through, which I think is
quite positive from a, you know, I guess,you know, if you run a circular economy
(11:41):
fund, but also just as the universe grows,because there's more and more companies do
this sort of thing, you get a wider andwider investment universe, which which, I
guess, you know, can'tbe anything but positive.
The circular economy isnot just an economic model.
It's a mind shift.
It's an enduring growth thematic.
And it's going to,you know, it's going to play out whether
(12:03):
politics or legislation or whatever.
It's just, you know, the end of the day,unless we solve interplanetary travel, um,
quite soon, then, you know, we've onlygot one planet Earth to work with.
(12:23):
That was the show.We very much hope you enjoyed it.
You can subscribe to the investordownload wherever you get your podcasts.
And if you want to get in touch withus, it's schroderspodcasts@schroders.
com.
And you can find out much, much moreat schroders.
com/insights.
New shows drop everyother Thursday at 5 p.
m.UK time.
(12:44):
In the meantime, keep safe and go well.
The value of investments and the incomefrom them may go down as well as up, and
investors may not get back theamounts originally invested.
Past performance is not aguide to future performance.
The information is not an offer,solicitation or recommendation of any
funds, services or products, orto adopt any investment strategy.
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