China's THREAT to the US: A MASTERCLASS with Glenn Tiffert

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
I come from the humanities and social sciences
there's a lot of great work being done there
so our immensely productive research infrastructure
and universities
and industry that drive the US economy
that help us solve the problems that really matter
that new technology new solutions to human problems
this is what's been so vital
and dynamic for the United States

(00:20):
for decades however
for decades we had an open policy because of our
it was luxury we enjoyed
of having a predominant position
of being the world leader
we felt like we could share everything with everyone
and in particular by modeling that good behavior here
we could encourage others to behave in similar ways
and most of our traditional partners

(00:41):
were other Liberal democracies
and so that seemed like a no brainer
countries like Germany Japan
UK Canada
France and others
but then suddenly out of nowhere emerged countries
non traditional research partners ahead
really different local systems
really different visions
of the kind of world that they wanted to live in
many of them were one party states
highly authoritarian and China was leading example of

(01:04):
and for many countries China is the leading
if not one of the leading
if not the leading research partners
it is for the United States far and away
yet amount of international collaboration
done with partners in China
equals roughly the next two countries put together
the UK and Germany
and if you count those four countries
the US China
UK Germany
you have the world's research super powers

(01:38):
Glen how's it going man
great thanks for inviting me to be on the show
I'm super excited to have you on today
there's so much talk about in regard to China
I was just hoping
maybe you can start with a quick introduction
so that people know who you are
gladly so I'm Glen Tifer
to distinguish
research fellow at the Hoover Institution
which is a public policy think tank

(01:58):
based at Stanford University
my training is as a historian of China
but I also co chair our program on the US
China and the world
along with my colleague Elizabeth Economy
who's recently back from serving in the administration
and together we have a comprehensive program on China
that looks at China domestically
that looks particularly
at US competitiveness around the world

(02:20):
with regards to China
and technology and key sectors of our economy
and then also
the third pillar is a competition globally
for narratives influence
and systemic structures of the international system
awesome in researching
kind of getting prepared for this podcast
I just started digging in to China
and the more you dig in more

(02:40):
I think
that we aren't thinking about China the right way
let me just list out some of the issues that we have
with China it's so pervasive
that I think it leaves a lot of people befuddled
IP theft human rights abuses
economic influence university cheating
research theft large scale espionage
ocean pollution CO2 emissions
an alliance with Russia

(03:01):
and one that I think is actually really interesting and
and kind of caught my eye was illicit fishing
there's so many different issues happening with China
my my first question for you is
are we even thinking about China the right way
and what's wrong with the way the US population
generally thinks about China
I think uh
large segments of our policy makers
are alert to the comprehensiveness of

(03:22):
the challenge that China poses to the United States
but we haven't been seized by appropriate urgency
we're having real challenges
mobilizing and coordinating ourselves
so that we can begin
to execute on the things that we need to do
to effectively compete across the board
with China
the American public is being exposed to China
largely through the lens of economic competitiveness

(03:44):
that it's the flow of goods
particularly supply chains
and then also about military competition
especially with regards to Taiwan
but as you suggested China is active in the world
in a range of ways
that tend not to show up in the headlines
and so for the United States
and what I spend a lot of my time doing
is trying to help us
begin to solve our coordination problems

(04:05):
and understand that this is a broad
full spectrum challenge
of the sort that we've never really faced before
even including the the period of the Cold War
where we were in rivalry with the Soviet Union
he'll recall
that the Soviet Union was a military superpower
but economically it was really quite weak
China is militarily technologically
and economically

(04:25):
a near peer competitor with United States
we've never been in this territory before
yeah you mentioned near peer competitor
that's that's something I hear a lot in the
in the military space if we're talking about
the way people are thinking about China
how should our military
and intelligence leaders think about China
obviously there's the raw data right
just understanding the movements of their military

(04:46):
and navy and all that good stuff
but how does China think about warfare
do they even think that
a hot war with the United States is a possibility
yeah that's the big question
I would say the following
the flashpoint that is probably most acute militarily
is in the South China Sea
involving Taiwan's status
and China's claims over Taiwan

(05:07):
as your audience is probably aware
China regards Taiwan as a breakaway province
that will eventually reunite with the motherland
the United States takes a different view
United States would like to preserve the freedom of
Taiwan's people to choose their own destiny
and hopefully
at some indeterminate point in the future
for there to be a peaceful resolution of
the status of Taiwan now
China and particularly under siegeon Ping

(05:30):
has been very methodically laying down the groundwork
brick by brick to create a military option
that could exercise at some point in the future
they're not quite there yet
but they very likely will
be in the next five to eight years
in which case if she didn't
Ping woke up one morning and said
you know what I'm gonna go for it
you'll have all of the ingredients in place to do that

(05:51):
and so it's really incumbent on the United States
to shore up the deterrence
that we've preserved in that region
really since the end of World War 2 regarding Taiwan
and we have that opportunity now
if we step up really quickly
the ball in some senses in our court
you know it's worth reflecting on the war in Ukraine
after the Russians seized Crimea

(06:12):
and there was a period of time in which Europe
and the United States could have mobilized
to do much more to maintain deterrence in that region
but clearly deterrence failed
and Putin sense that
he had an opportunity to make a move on all of Ukraine
and he did we face a similar opportunity right now
to shore up deterrence in the region
so that she didn't think says
you know what there's sufficient uncertainty

(06:34):
that even with all the hard work
and money that I have spent
building the military option
I could prevail at acceptable cost
in an acceptable time frame
and that's where we want to be
so we got to invest hard
because we are losing our edge right now
in that region when you mention Taiwan
how did the people of Taiwan feel about China

(06:54):
ah that's a great question
Taiwan's an incredibly vibrant pluralistic democracy
it is in a sense
one of the world's best success stories
for a transition from a one party
authoritarian state into a socially progressive
economically Liberal vibrant
pluralistic electoral democracy

(07:15):
you couldn't do it any better than the way they did it
peacefully and that in and of itself
is deeply threatening to the PRC
because
it demonstrates that there's nothing incompatible
between Chinese culture and electoral
Liberal democracy
Taiwan has pulled it off and done it quite well
and if you look
they're executing brilliantly on high technology
it's not even like they had to give up anything

(07:37):
economically to
to achieve that
this is intolerable to a one party authoritarian state
like the CCPS regime in China
and the people of Taiwan generationally
because there's all this great public polling
because it's a free society
there's a generational split in Taiwan
in which older people will feel more of an ethnic

(07:57):
Chinese identity
and an affiliation with a greater Chinese population
and a connection to the mainland and China
and the PRC a large segment of Taiwan's population
fled the mainland in 1949
when the nationals government collapsed
and they tended to be
those who dominated political and cultural spaces
for several decades thereafter

(08:18):
in Taiwan their descendants up until quite recently
still felt a connection to the mainland
but in the last 15 years or so
that's begun to shift
just as a function of generational change
and people under 40 increasingly
have a uniquely Taiwanese identity
where they'll say yes
we are sort of ethnically Chinese

(08:39):
and culturally Chinese
but we're not politically connected to the mainland
and we wanna govern our our own affairs
and we have this Taiwanese identity
increasingly they use that word
they identify as Taiwanese
not Chinese
and that's critical because that means that the PRC
despite decades of trying to win hearts and minds
is actually lost ground which means that really

(09:02):
the only viable option it has for reunifying
or absorbing Taiwan is coercive
because as time passes the Taiwanese
people feel no affinity towards the mainland
you bring up an interesting perspective
because if you look at just geographically right
Taiwan's very close to China
that you don't have far to go

(09:22):
obviously there's some issues with deep water vessels
close to Taiwan there's not much you can do
they're just based on the geography
you bring up an interesting question
which is the human geography
so I guess will they invade Taiwan
who knows but my actual real question is
can they invade Taiwan and what do they have to gain
let's say they invade Taiwan
and then the people are like yeah
we're not building these semi conductors for you sorry

(09:45):
like we don't belong here
or they flee they go to the Philippines or they
you know they get out of dodge
what is there to gain from just
can coercion alone be enough to control population
to make them do what you want them to do
yeah that is a great question
and for those who are thinking about military planning
contingency scenarios and deterrence

(10:05):
the question of will to fight is especially strong
you know again
we have the example of Ukraine
where I think
many people thought that Ukraine would fall
very quickly and that the Ukrainian military
and people would not resist
and they would be foolish to resist
a Russian juggernaut and yet
they were proven so very wrong by that
and so these are the kinds of things that are really

(10:26):
difficult to answer you don't know until I
I suppose a military and a people are tested
and to a large extent
Taiwan could not hold out by itself
it would be utterly reliant on the United States and
and the United States
allies and partners in that region
to survive if the PRC decided to invade
and if it was clear that aid was not forthcoming
then the Taiwanese people might

(10:47):
in fact choose not to resist
and that's not a position we want put anyone in
we wanna preserve their freedom of options
I suppose and allow them to control their own destiny
but you know
it's a David and Goliath story
you've got 1.4 billion people on one side
and 24 odd million people on the other
world's largest military on one side in a very small

(11:08):
relatively underfunded military
that's falling behind technologically
on the other and so yes
the PRC
if it wanted to could take Taiwan in several years
once it develops the amphibious landing capability
there potentially would be a high cost
and so it's really a question of
would she and Ping be willing to bear that cost
I will say rhetorically he has made it very clear

(11:30):
that it is his intention to absorb Taiwan
and in some sense the PRC has been talking about this
really for more than 70 years
that Taiwan is the last piece of unfinished business
from the Chinese civil war
but it's become more insistent
more real more urgent under sheeted thing
so I wanna just touch on this a little bit more
there's so many great topics to get to

(11:51):
but when I talk to military commanders
in the indopaycom region
their big focus is partnerships and
and these global partnerships
who are our key partners in that region
and who kind of brings the most to the fight
in regard to boarding China's advances
so you have to remember that the United States
in that region does not have a NATO like architecture

(12:13):
in which it's sort of you know
all for one one for all
but rather we have a series of bilateral relationships
with nations in the region
that are largely about preserving mutual defense
bilaterally so we have a US mutual defense treaty
for example with Japan
we have one with Korea we have one with the Philippines
and so those are our bilateral allies

(12:35):
and they
are not treaty bound to come to the defense of any
particular other member
their relationships are all sort of
straight lines to the United States
and not necessarily lateral
so it it's a choice that they would have to make
about whether they wanted to get involved in the fight
um now
having said that the United States would be
highly reliant on our infrastructure

(12:56):
facilities in the Western Pacific
in particular Japan um
and possibly also the Philippines
so we don't quite have
what we used to have in the Philippines
in order to mount any assistance to Taiwan
defense or intervention in a conflict
and so there is a question about
the extent to which Japan would be willing to allow
US to use our facilities to participate in a conflict

(13:17):
at the risk of Japan being drawn
dragged into a war or on the other side
the extent to which Japan would actively participate
as a combat and that's a choice
a Japanese government would have to make
but the United States plus Japan
as active combatants would be formidable
because they have really complimentary
interoperable
security architectures and orders of battle

(13:38):
and we've been exercising for a long time together
a lot of people don't realize that actually
the nearest Japanese island is
I think about 80 miles away from Taiwan
so they have a front row seat
if there's any conflict over Taiwan
and in fact Japanese public opinion
really shifted in the last few years
where in a series of military exercises

(13:59):
after speaker the House Pelosi went to Taiwan
and the PRC expressed its extreme displeasure
by having military exercises around Taiwan
and firing missiles into the ocean
some of those missiles overflow Japanese territory
and landed in Japanese waters
and the Japanese that was a tipping
an inflection point in which the Japanese public said

(14:20):
we don't like that and it really changed opinion on
on the extent to which China represents a threat
to Japanese peace and security
but so those are the key partners
it's Japan and the Philippines in particular
but then it's also Australia and Korea
and we have to think that
if there's a conflict between China and Taiwan
there's always a possibility that North Korea

(14:41):
takes advantage of the fact that the US is distracted
and we're already involved in Ukraine
and then does something on the Korea border as well
so it's very easy for it to get big fast
okay that's interesting
I know one of the biggest struggles in that region
with partnerships is information sharing
intelligence sharing
it's been a long standing issue with the United States
and working with allies and partners about

(15:03):
you know how do we declassify certain things
and classify certain things
and share that with our friends
and partners in the region
but speaking about information sharing and gathering
let's talk a little bit about TikTok
because TikTok
I'm sure you probably don't have a TikTok Glen
but TikTok has 170 million users in the United States
that's far superior to any other social media platform

(15:23):
uh and if you look at the usage times as well
way through the roof
young people are in it are using TikTok in droves
and of course
the reason why there's currently seeking a ban
is because there's a belief that China is using TikTok
TikTok TikTok
tik toks to these tik toks for the breast
and TikTok to spy on US citizen

(15:44):
or at least gather data
is there any evidence at all supporting that
and then do you think it's strong enough that
TikTok should be banned in the United States
and then even furthermore
what are the broader implications
why would China wanna do business with us
if every time they have a new app or a new device
or something like that
DJI is a massive drone manufacturer that
destroying all American drone manufacturers

(16:06):
and anytime that they have a new product
a new device a new technology
they can't access our market because we just say no no
no they're using it for intelligence gathering
what are the implications there
that is a great question
so let me start on the back end of that
and then we'll get to the TikTok
and whether it represents risk for the United States
I think TikTok byd

(16:28):
EGI
the drone makers these firms
are all laying to rest the really
misguided presumption
that China only succeeds by stealing
and cannot innovate in fact
what distinguishes China
as opposed to our previous nations
we regarded as near pure competitors
is that it is a fierce competitor
if anything it is proving itself to be

(16:50):
more nimble than our market driven economies
and we are struggling to keep pace
with the level of innovation
coming out of there in particular areas
and we will soon see that in the biotext space
to China's invested enormous amounts of money into
ensuring that it scales
the biotech pinnacles of technological dominance too
so think about pharmaceuticals
which is an area that the US has

(17:12):
has dominated for decades
that may we may be in a race now in
in biotech and pharmaceuticals and genomics as well
so let's put to rest that China cannot innovate
because China
now has firms that are globally competitive
with the best that anybody else has to offer
and TikTok is a great example of that
TikTok is a great example of how they can have a
domestically closed

(17:33):
highly censored in police information sphere
and yet create products that globally
can take on the best that anybody else has to offer
and so you raise the question
and I think it's an important one
particularly at this moment in in US politics
how do we deal with that
do we retreat into Fortress America
build the walls high and hide behind them

(17:55):
because all of these maybe there's unfair competition
maybe there's CCP control of these platforms
so that they all those risk
and abandon the rest of the world to these platforms
or products securing the knowledge that Fortress
North America is safe or
and I think that's a dead end
it's a land of diminishing returns
in the irony of courses

(18:16):
it turns America into this little Antarctic island
that resembles what Eastern Europe
and the Soviet Union Union used to be
while China is active globally
around the world in seizing markets
we don't wanna be in that position
our carmakers our computer companies
our high tech companies and pharmaceuticals
and you just name the industry
if we retreat to Fortress America

(18:38):
they will shrivel they will wither
they will be under less competitive
pressure to innovate
and we will find that they fall further
and further behind
so I think it is the wrong approach for us to do that
instead we should tackle them head on
and do the best we can to compete
and figure out what role
government and industry can play together
to overcome the unfair competition that China

(19:02):
in fact engages in
but you know what China is not gonna change
we can complain about it till the cows come home
so the question is what are we gonna do about it
um and retreating behind tariff walls is
is really not the right approach
now with regard to TikTok um
it is my own belief that TikTok poses an

(19:22):
extreme example of a much broader challenge
in social media it's not as if misinformation
disinformation and manipulation of the electorate
is unique to TikTok we're seeing this across
the spectrum of social media platforms
and in fact many of the campaigns that exist on TikTok
have analogues or
in fact
are happening in parallel on the other platforms

(19:44):
because um
the goal really is to reach the widest audience
to have that impact and so
it would be better if the United States
had a more comprehensive policy
regarding data privacy
ownership of platforms and transparency
rather than doing a whackamole approach
which is what we basically done across
from one sector to another

(20:04):
saying TikTok's a problem
we'll just go after TikTok
BGI's a problem we'll just go after BGI
b y d's a problem
we'll just go after B y d
we need a more comprehensive approach
because today TikTok tomorrow's something else
and the danger is unfortunately
this was recently addressed in legislation
we could have banned TikTok
but the markets for private data

(20:26):
that exist in the United States
that were until quite recently
relatively lightly regulated
made it such that fine ban TikTok
but malign
players from abroad could enter the US market
and still buy all of the data
and use it for malign purposes
because we don't have overarching data regulation
so we gotta solve that problem comprehensively to
rather than going after sort of

(20:47):
these individual actors swatting it flies
so it sounds to me like what you're saying is yes
they're spying on us but no
it doesn't matter
because they can purchase the data elsewhere
or get it through other means
I actually agree with you
because if you look at your phone
I mean I don't know how many
apps I've downloaded over the years
for stupid things I see apps on there like
I don't know where this came from
like what is this app doing
and I think that's probably most people

(21:10):
right
is download an app or you put something on your phone
you don't really think about it
I feel like I think it does matter that that TikTok is
by all evidence at least indirectly
owned and controlled
by an entity that is adversarial to the United States
and that it is so influential
it does put it in a sort of class by itself
but I think we still need a broader based
approach to it and TikTok yeah

(21:31):
it clearly I mean
you just have to look at Romania's recent election
where a candidate came out of nowhere
in fact he wasn't even a real serious candidate
it was a person who literally popped out of nowhere
and then suddenly ran away with the election
because of a TikTok campaign
that's chilling it also it it is about more than TikTok
it is about also I think

(21:52):
that particular candidate
met a need in the Romanian electorate
that was unmet by the traditional political parties
let us also focus on the kind of social alienation
the problems that I think emerged in
in our electoral campaign
about how people feel like
their needs are not being met by traditional politics

(22:13):
if we can do that
if we can be a more responsive democracy
then the ability of malign actors outside
to influence us
into manipulate the electorate will be diminished
you mention Romania and they're actually
Romania has to completely redo their entire election
because they looked at 80000+ cyber attacks
and you talk about this influential TikTok campaign

(22:35):
they basically elected a very pro Russian Canada
so they're gonna have to redo the whole thing
I wanna Wanna flip over though
and talk about what you're doing regarding research
I mentioned one of the issues that we have with China
is that they steal so much
and
we can talk a little bit about how they're doing that
or why they're doing that
you're involved in a program
that's funded by the National Science Foundation
called the Secure program

(22:56):
I wonder if you could
maybe tell us about that a little bit
yeah so
one of the great strengths of the United States
for decades has been
its
immensely open and productive research infrastructure
particularly at universities
where they do fundamental research
and things like everything from cosmology
to genetics to a financial technology

(23:16):
computer science you just name all of the departments
and of course
I come from the humanities and social sciences
there's a lot of great work being done there
so our immensely productive research infrastructure
and universities and industry that drive the US economy
that help us solve the problems that really matter
that the new technologies
new solutions to human problems

(23:37):
this is what's been so vital
and dynamic for the United States
for decades however
for decades we had an open policy
because it was the luxury we enjoyed
of having a predominant position
of being the world leader
we felt like we could share everything with everyone
and in particular by modeling that good behavior
we could encourage others to behave in similar ways

(24:00):
and most of our traditional partners were other
Liberal democracies
and so that seemed like a no brainer
countries like Germany Japan
the UK Canada
France and others
but then suddenly out of nowhere emerged countries
non traditional research partners
that had really different political systems
really different visions
of the kind of world that they wanted to live in
many of them were one party states

(24:21):
highly authoritarian um
and China was the leading example of those
and for many countries China is the leading
if not uh
one of the leading if not the leading research partners
it is for the United States far and away
the amount of international collaboration
done with partners in China
equals roughly the next two countries
put together the UK and Germany

(24:43):
and if you count those four countries
the US China
UK and Germany
you have the world's research superpowers
but China has a different set of goals
it's seeing this as an opportunity to absorb
the best international research
and use it as instruments of national power
for which China then has ambitions to
military technology
to push the US out of the Western Pacific

(25:05):
and to enhance its position in the world
in ways that might be anathetical to our interests
and values and so the challenge really has been
how do we exist in a world
which is growing more complex
in which um
our traditional Liberal
democratic partners are being joined by non democratic
authoritarian partners
have different visions of the world
how do we cooperate in that more complex environment

(25:26):
to continue to drive innovation and research
um and to what degree do we have to modify
our earlier paradigm of radical openness
the secure program tries to solve this problem
by developing best practices
and good data to help people make better decisions
and help guide their thought processes
and sort of institutional decision trees

(25:48):
about how do we collaborate internationally
with a given partner
how do we think about these really complex problems
so that we can exercise the academic freedom
the institutional autonomy that we have
in ways that are wiser and perhaps take on the
a broader set of interests
national interests then um
and has traditionally been the case
and it it's really important that this is not being

(26:10):
that this is not happening within government
but it's happening within the research community
giving them the opportunity to help come up
with solutions that make sense to them
and that will be
operable within their own institutions
and this is a five year project
and we're just getting started on it
it's really exciting it's a big challenge
but we hope to make progress very soon

(26:32):
man it's really interesting
in the intelligence community we operate and skips
right secure compartment information facilities
and for a long time I've always
seen these parallels between research institutions
and the intelligence community
and I think that the secure program
is really interesting and like you said
it's a newer thing
but I can totally see a future where
we have skits in all the major universities across

(26:52):
the United States that way
we can leverage and access the brain power
from university research
and from all the smart people at these universities
if something were to ever happen
I'll tell you one of our biggest issues
it's just getting the knowledge to the right
decision makers
because we are so limited on our TS networks
and our secret networks
as to where you can access them
and how you can get the information out

(27:13):
it's actually to me I think it's worth looking at
probably a d and I type issue
so that's very good
I talked to a lot of students actually
sorry I wanted to shift over for a second
I talked to a lot of students because of my wife
she has multiple international students
and I asked about the other
students and all that good stuff
and I had a few of them mention to me that
the Chinese students cheat
do the Chinese students cheat

(27:35):
this was the context I was told that
this is by multiple people have told me this
that when the Chinese students come to United States
they have basically a mentor or a partner
a previous Chinese student
who has all the materials for them
will basically hand them all the work
that they're about to do for that semester
and they have
like a team approach to passing university

(27:56):
getting better grades is this something
have you heard of this or is this crazy
I have heard of this look
some students cheat right
it's it's not like Chinese to I mean
like some students cheat
there will always be students search
I think it is incredibly important
and should be baked into every
program that has international students to

(28:18):
in the process of orienting them
when they arrive on campus
acculturate them
to what the rules of good behavior are
in the United States in this academic program
because often that is not done
in cultural practices that would be acceptable
or behaviors that would be overlooked in one country
may not be acceptable

(28:38):
or may not be overlooked here in the United States
and we can assume that people will know that
will want to disabuse them of habits
that they may have picked up in
in their countries that are incompatible with our
standards of academic integrity
and that's on us to do in the beginning
because you can't
expect people to know what the rules of the road are
if anyone's ever driven in a different country right

(28:59):
there are the formal rules and the informal ones
and so we've got to educate them up at the outset
to ensure that
that they understand what is considered good
academic citizenship now
having said that the Chinese system is such that it is
brutally competitive and students
and even academic faculty will often take shortcuts

(29:20):
simply because if you see others doing it
you'll be a sucker
if you don't try to leverage the same advantages
because the system is is metric driven
extremely achievement driven
and so if you wanna have opportunity
and very few opportunities to
given the number of people in it
and so it produces a that has perverse incentives
which produces the kinds of behaviors that you describe

(29:42):
and I think it's up to faculty to adjust their courses
in ways that make it more difficult to do that
we're facing that anyway
in the classrooms across the board now
with generative AI in which students are
maybe not putting the same individual
effort into their essays
as they might have a generation to go
because the generative AI
can do the heavy lifting for them
so you've got to adjust

(30:02):
to ensure that the integrity standards are maintained
that's interesting you mention that
because my daughter has
to do this presentation to her class
she's in 4th grade
and I tried to tell her that the material
the Powerpoint poster whatever you're presenting
that's not what's being presented
what's being presented is you
when you go out there and you're presenting a subject
that's just the material that's the backup

(30:23):
with all this push
with generative AI and all that stuff
I think it's really important for students
and really anybody and industry wherever
understand that when you're presenting something
you're presenting you you're not presenting the topic
it's you your knowledge
I think that the academics think this way as well
so when they start having exams and research papers
all that stuff
they start relying more on oral presentations

(30:44):
I think oral presentations are an absolute great way
to go for students but yeah
the hard work is where the learning actually happens
right yeah
I know that's exactly right
you mentioned a couple things about
the societal norms of China
and how this pressure cooker of competition
could kind of lead people to doing some
less than kosher things in our eyes

(31:05):
what are some of the other
maybe societal norms that in China
that the United States is less familiar with
there is a
widespread sense that China is a highly collectivist
society and in many cases
I would say that that's a misunderstanding
I've never seen the level of individualism
exhibited in society that I've seen in China

(31:27):
anywhere else and I think
that's largely a function of the fact that people
sink and swim in the most urgent
sort of life altering way on their own effort
and the unlocking of that in China
40 years ago
is what has produced China's economic miracle
in some sense
China is a more dickensian society than even sort of

(31:50):
19th century England
in which the social safety net is really thin
it can be an exploitative economic society
and so people have to hustle
in ways that are almost unimaginable for the ordinary
comfortable American and this is true
of course
in a lot of the world where there's a social safety net
you could litter without one
you could literally starve to death um

(32:10):
without your own effort
and so the level of individualism is extreme
social trust is relatively low
but having said that
the Chinese people are immensely proud of their nation
their history their culture
in ways that I think we also should appreciate
and so when people
sometimes talk about
encouraging the Chinese people to overthrow

(32:32):
their government
to overthrow the Chinese Communist Party
Chinese
people have complicated feelings about the Chinese
Communist Party especially in recent years
because the economic performance has fallen off
you should never underestimate the pride that they have
in their own history and their culture and
and we should never sort of
insert ourselves as knowing better than them

(32:53):
about what is good for them
that's really interesting
and probably a little bit mind blowing for some people
for me especially I've always thought of China as like
this collectivist society
and that's the way that they think
but when you put it that way
you talk about a sheer number of people
and what they have to do to stand out
and I could see that
creating a more individualistic society
what are some of the internal struggles in China

(33:15):
that maybe we don't quite see
I know that they have a declining birth rate
I'm sure that they're doing things to address that
what are some other internal struggles
within the country that maybe
aren't as apparent to us
large sections of China are running out of water
economic growth
has been extremely wasteful of water resources
and the growth of immensely large cities
and development in all

(33:36):
without regard to the conservation of resources
has really taxed on their hydrology
and so large sections of North China
where Beijing for example
the capital is and many other large cities
are among the driest capital cities
and major cities in the world
and so the Chinese government is contemplating major
water diversion projects
from

(33:57):
all the way clear on the other side of the country
in order to feed the thirst of these cities
as the water table really
kinda disappears and ground starts to subside
this is the kind of thing which is economically
probably unviable
but the Chinese government doesn't think
in the dollars and cents terms
it's about keeping those cities as going enterprises
so water is one you mention the demographics

(34:18):
it's becoming acute now
in ways that are just impossible to hide
that
the demographic pyramid of China is basically inverted
so there's very few young people now
supporting a much growing older population
and 20 or 30 years ago that
China's last baby boom was at the end of the 1960s
and so it was that generation

(34:39):
which at the height of their working age productivity
drove China's economic miracle of the last 30 years
but now they're in their fifties
and they're beginning to age out
and become sort of net draws on the system
rather than contributors to it
and so economically
also with regard to military manpower
cohort of young men
available for recruitment into the army

(35:01):
is really gonna acutely drop off
but in a population of 1.4 billion
they can still field a very large army
that's another area the limits of their growth model
for decades they could simply invest more
and it translated into economic growth
but for about the last dozen years
their total factor productivity has been stagnant
or declining which means that they're not getting

(35:23):
greater returns for their investment
and in fact each dollar of investment is now returning
just a fraction of a dollar
in actual economic growth
but they haven't found a
way to reinvent their growth model
and so they're doubling down
and they're burning more money for less return
so this is a huge issue
and that's what's really supported
the legitimacy of the CCP
because Chinese people got used to the idea that

(35:46):
every year would be better than the last
it was this just straight up trajectory of wealth
when you talk to somebody who's 50 years old
and they can remember
the idea of like getting a watch was a big idea
let alone a black and white TV or a color TV
and now people in their 50s
especially in the cities are living just as well
if not better than people anywhere else in the world
and so within their lifetimes

(36:07):
the transformation has been extreme
but China seems to hit a ceiling now
and young people their very few jobs
the unemployment rate is very high
and young people are beginning to despair
that what was available for their parents generation
will not be available for them
this is perhaps it's unclear right now
but this is something that
the party should be very worried about
disaffected young people

(36:28):
you mentioned some of their economic struggles
yeah will tariffs be a good
let me phrase this differently
are tariffs a good tool to use as leverage
against China when dealing with China
I should say as a good tool
to create a better deal
for our relationship with China
whether that's
some of the things I mentioned with research
are tariffs a good tool to use as leverage

(36:51):
get what we want out of China
I'm glad you mentioned the research piece
because up to this point a lot of the US response
to the challenges that China poses
are responses that involve
the negative side of the equation
sort of denying China slowing down China
blocking China and on the secure program side of it too

(37:11):
there is an aspect of that
like how do we
be more thoughtful about our engagements with China
to ensure that our relationships are reciprocal
and mutually beneficial likewise in industry
economic competition but a critical piece of this
the piece that we have been less successful
at standing up but I think
will be the larger component

(37:32):
of whether we actually come out in a
more favorable position
is the positive side of the equation
how do we ensure that the US is more economically
competitive how do we ensure that US
research continues to be
the most productive in the world
where do we make the investments
how do we overcome the coordination
and mobilization problems
how do we in
coordinate with our allies and partners

(37:53):
to create better markets
in which we can sell more goods
simply raising tariffs
and retreating to Fortress America
is not gonna achieve that
that might be a temporary solution
it might deal with certain symptoms
but if we're worried about
let's take electric vehicles flooding the US market
fine we can protect the US market
but what about the rest of the world
in which if GM and Ford

(38:15):
Wanna maintain anything like their current status
if the workers in the US and Canada who work for GM
and Ford
wanna continue having the factories to work in
and keep their jobs we gotta sell cars globally
so we've got to be out in those markets
with products that compete on price
on features on innovation

(38:35):
so retreating building walls
yes that can in limited ways be part of the solution
it can buy us time but in the long run
we've got to address the positive side of the equation
and create a vision for competition
that ensures that
the world continues to look to the United States
as it has for decades as a technological leader
as an inspiration as a model of democratic society

(38:59):
and as a guarantee of international peace and security
and I worry that as we retreat from
and we're understandably tired
we spent a lot of blood and treasure around the world
but if we retreat that vacuum will
in fact be filled by a country like China
in concert with countries like Russia
and Iran and others
and is that the kind of world we wanna live in
it's an important question

(39:20):
which I think we're struggling with right now
is a nation saw recently
that China has banned
the export of certain precious
minerals to United States
is that a reaction to Trump's tariffs
or is that a reaction to the chips actor
what's your reaction to this
so for a number of years
China has observed that the US has this really

(39:40):
intricate
and sophisticated tool set for export controls
and also for financial regulation
so it's for example
monitoring the Swift system
and we really developed
the most sophisticated pieces of that
financial regulation tool kit
with regard to terrorist financing after 9 11
so we could follow flows of money
but we also use it for sanctioning countries

(40:01):
so China has looked on
as the US has begun to kind of pull those levers
more frequently around the world
in the last decade or so often with regard to China
the ZTE and Huawei sanctions
for example a wake up call for China
so they have been saying hmm
we need to develop commencement tools
that allow us to exercise our economic power

(40:21):
in ways that advance our own economic interests
and in fact
maybe deter the unilateral US and European action
so China has begun to create those tools
those rare earths
and mineral export controls that were adopted were
in fact in response to some of the technology curbs
in particular the 2022 semiconductor export controls
and that were adopted that were meant to kind of

(40:43):
cut off China's access to the highest end
semiconductor technologies
China adopted in response to that
some mineral export controls
and now it's gone further
in response to the intensification of
our attempts to limit their access to technology
it's gone further down that road
by trying to block transshipment of
those critical minerals
so there is a tit for tat going on here for sure

(41:06):
right now the US has more leverage
but China's realizes that in this
rapidly trying to equalize the playing field
yeah I mean
if you don't have a lot of leverage in a negotiation
you gotta create some somewhere right
maybe that's
makes sense that they would do that in response
I'm sure that with the new administration coming in
there's gonna be all sorts of new levers
that are pulled by the new administration

(41:27):
that weren't pulled by the current one
just real quick on that
what are your thoughts on a Trump administration
and their relationship to China
versus a Biden administration
their relationship to China
like what changes there and what's
what's good what's bad
so I
it's an interesting question because I think it's
which Trump administration are we talking about
I work very closely with a number of

(41:47):
of veterans of the first Trump administration
and they played a critical role in pivoting
American policy towards China
I think being more realistic
that the hope that China would play the role
that we wanted it to play in the world was
perhaps unrealized
and that we needed to rethink our policy um
towards China to a remarkable degree
I think it surprised a lot of people
especially the Chinese government

(42:08):
the Biden administration
maintained a lot of those original Trump policies and
and general orientation towards China
so there was
a lot of continuity and consistency
from the first Trump administration
through the Biden administration
in ways that people did not expect
the next Trump administration is a question Mark
will it be a kind of continuation of certain paths that

(42:30):
that were begun in the first administration
or will he take things in a new direction
I think it's really unclear what will happen
it's a new set of people in the important policy roles
will have to see
exactly what influence that they will have
there's a possibility that they intensify
travel further down the road right
but there's also the possibility that they strike in a
rather different direction

(42:51):
I don't know well
that's good nobody can predict the future right
so yeah
I see these people on the news
oh this and this and this is gonna happen
look people
no one can predict the future
just yeah
chill out
you can try to speculate based on history and data
and all that good stuff but really
nobody can predict the future
you can say that
there are some gay people in the administration
who have a record of

(43:11):
of being China Hawks in a fairly conventional way yeah
but then they work for boss
the president who has a record of
of being more transactional
and being willing to cut deals
and so it's a complex chemistry
and it'll the boss
ultimately is gonna be the one who makes the decision
that's the president's role
in our system yeah
and probably one of the most outsized roles of the

(43:33):
executive branches foreign policy
they have more say over foreign policy than really
anything previously
you mentioned how we leverage our dollar right
sanctions and things like that
and I think we go overboard with this all the time
we overly sanction things
and that causes countries to retreat
maybe
I was hoping you could talk a little bit about bricks
what is bricks should we be concerned about it

(43:54):
this is a great question what is bricks
bricks is a really loose club
that different nations have signed up for
for different reasons
largely because they have a grievance
or something that they're unhappy about
with regard to the way that the international
financial and economic system is currently organized
which is favoured and of course

(44:15):
it was set up in the wake of World War 2
by the victorious European
North American powers
and so bricks are countries from the global south
largely or the developing world plus Russia
that feel like that system is not fully
serving their interests and it's become a loose club
in which they articulate visions of alternatives

(44:35):
how could we reorder the international system
in a way that's more responsive to
our needs now
having said that
they all want different things out of it
and so
one should not think of it as this tight alliance
it means different things to different partners
that was really clear in the most recent
brick summit in cousin
at which Putin announced the desire to pursue a bricks

(44:56):
currency that would be parallel to the dollar
and create a sort of separate
parallel international payment system
um independent of Swift
to serve the interests of nations
that took
exception to the fact that the US has outsized control
over the global financial system
and he was kinda left all by himself
by the other members
who kinda took a step back and said hmm

(45:18):
not so sure about that right
yeah and you can over that system right
like you yeah
and you can understand why Putin would feel that way
cause he's been locked
out of the international financial system
right as a function of the war in Ukraine
but the comprehensive
financial sanctions adopted against Putin were
did make other countries saying
we wouldn't want to be on the receiving
and no country
should have that much

(45:39):
power over the international system
as the United States does
and so what the US needs to do is find maybe a balance
or bring more countries along in
so that when we exercise that power
they don't feel like someday
it could be directed at them
and we begin to earn more trust
by pulling on that lever of sanctions
I think
we've made countries begin to look for alternatives

(46:00):
but there really aren't any right now
dollar markets are too deep
they're too liquid to open
we have rule of law
we have advanced capital financial institutions
so for the moment we are sitting in the catbird seat
it's gonna take a lot for someone to amount
a comprehensive challenge to dollar dominance
and I don't see anyone in that position now

(46:20):
they might nibble around the edges
they might create particular pathways
or currencies serve particular purposes
it's very likely that some of these
currencies would function
kind of like a dark web of international finance
in which things like international arms dealing
um transactions in sanctioned commodities
like Iranian oil or Russian oil

(46:40):
would happen off the books using these currencies
but they wouldn't pose a comprehensive threat
to the status of the dollar globally
well you certainly make a good case for Bitcoin
I mean that's what it sounds like to me is
you know maybe they don't want some of that too yeah
they don't wanna centralize control over their currency
which makes sense to me a foreign country
I don't want another country to have control over

(47:02):
sanctioning individuals in my country
that seems insane to me and I
and I get that so then bricks though
you have Russia and China involved there
what is the real threat of a Russia
China alliance overall right
so there's a diversity of opinions on this question
Russia and China have
a relatively long history of neighborly friction
there's not a tremendous amount of love between the

(47:24):
two countries but it's a marriage of convenience now
each has its own grievances
largely with the United States
but also with western institutions and systems
and would like to see them changed
in ways that benefit it and they find it
I think convenient to cooperate in this regard
and in particular if you're China
for example the longer the Ukraine war goes on and

(47:47):
you know
Russia is basically on life support provided by China
into a lesser extent India
without that support
the Russian economy and Russia's war machine
likely
would be experiencing really acute shortages right now
and the war might look quite different
China is keeping Russia on life support
without sort of actively getting involved in the war

(48:07):
in order to tie up the United States and Europe
and allow them to deplete their energies and resources
military stockpiles in that war
which relieves pressure in the Western Pacific
for China and gives it a
I think a freer rein to act globally
so when you think about China Iran
Russia North Korea
they all find it wonderfully convenient to um

(48:28):
to help each other out in their own sort of
special localities
and so you don't quite have an access of evil
but you have a coalition of the willing
really on the other side
that is making life very complicated
for the United States
in its traditional role as a kind of
guarantee of international peace and security
look we're active now in
in Eastern Europe and Ukraine

(48:48):
in the Red Sea we're supporting Israel and Gaza
and now Syria has collapsed
there's the question of Iran
there's North Korea and then there's Taiwan
and that is really stretching the United States
and ways that we've not been stretched
at any one particular moment in time
in a very long time and all of those other players

(49:09):
you know Iran North Korea
Russia China
find that a really convenient place to be
the Russia China alliance
if it's really a thing
maybe they have agreements for certain areas
when they do the thing that I think about the most
is just technological exchange right
you always hear this in the military
this is you know
all of our simulations and models
they mean squat
because they have a hypersonic missile advantage

(49:30):
we can't shoot those down
we don't have the capability to shoot down hypersonics
in mass what are some other technology advantages that
that alliance might pose
as a threat to the United States
oh my god
it's so much more complicated than that
let me let me throw in yeah
let me throw in something that scrambles that alliance
in a way that blows a lot of people's minds

(49:51):
for great many years
China has struggled to produce leading edge
military jet engines
it's got relatively decent avionics
and platforms for its its 5 gen fighters
but getting the engines
up to the performance that US engines
or even Russian engines have um
has been a struggle for them

(50:11):
it's about materials it's about engineering
so what do they
do they turn to the place that used to be the
kind of
center of Soviet military aircraft and engine design
Ukraine and they've imported um
even before the war but still ongoing
they have highly skilled Ukrainian military jet
aircraft engineers

(50:32):
working in China
to help them perfect Chinese military jet engines
and adapt
the technologies that they're getting from Russia
cause who understands the
Russia
and the Soviet technologies better than the Ukrainians
what why
why did the United States let that happen
we're funding billions of
hundreds of billions of dollars
why would we allow them to give this technology
technology to China why would we

(50:53):
wouldn't that be a contingent part of your offer
I'd be like we'll support you with a
you know $100 billion
but you gotta stop giving China all this technology
so there's a market for talent really
and China just was willing to pay those engineers
to come over to China and work for that
it's not like official Ukrainian government policy
no no
but nonetheless the know how the technology travels
right but yes

(51:14):
there's also yeah
China has bought the US400
and aircraft systems from Russia
and begun producing its own domestic variants
and so I think
the technological edge between China and Russia
has mostly closed
except in a few really limited areas
possibly submarines the key thing now is that
China is developing those technologies

(51:36):
and it is scaling them in a way that we cannot match
one of the lessons I think
of the Ukraine war is
it isn't necessarily who has the most exquisite toys
because Russia is winning this thing with a mixture of
old fashioned glide bombs
not hypersonic missiles right
it's winning this thing by
being able to produce more artillery than the whole

(51:58):
rest of the west combined
and using sort of proven technologies
or off the shelf technologies
like drones
in ways that make our emphasis on things like the F35
or particularly exquisitely expensive platforms
potentially seem misguided
and this is a real question
for a kinetic contingency in the Taiwan Strait

(52:21):
can the US simply sustain its effort long enough
does it run out of those exquisite missiles
I just read a really interesting piece about how
up to this point you know
the US has wonderful cruise missile technology
and standoff missile technology
but the ships that fire those missiles
have to go back to a limited number of ports
either in Honolulu or San Diego to rearm

(52:44):
and so imagine a kinetic conflict in the Pacific
in which you have those ships
release all their missiles
and then
they have to sail three weeks back to San Diego
to rearm get reloaded
and then sail three weeks back
they're out of the fight for almost two months
that's not a sustainable strategy
and so they're experimenting with adaptations

(53:05):
to allow us to re arm at sea
but it's that kind it's our defense industrial base
which we really I think that the gaps in it
the inattention to it has
the Ukraine war has shown a light on that
across the western alliance
so we've really got to shore that up in a massive way
you got hypersonics the INF Treaty
that the United States signed with the Soviet Union
that remained in effect

(53:26):
after the fall of the Soviet Union
for decades
that limited the production of intermediate nuclear
intermediate ballistic missiles
China was not a party to that
so in the period of time
where we were self limiting ourselves
and the Russians were China proliferated
intermediate range ballistic missiles
so that it has thousands of them
pointed at targets across the Pacific
closing that gap might be something

(53:47):
they have an enormous shipbuilding program
right beyond the ability of the United States to equal
so the question is not necessarily
do we try to match them plane for plane
ship for ship but rather
think about smarter ways to leverage our advantage
you're talking about the focus on effective
low cost proven solutions

(54:08):
and the US military does think about this quite a bit
that we they call it asymmetric warfare right
we wanna do things a little bit better
and we learn this from our time in Afghanistan
where the Taliban and whatever insurgent group
as they are attacking our bases in Afghanistan
they are shooting these really old Russian rockets
that they found off the side of the road
wherever they got them from
super cheap old rusty things

(54:29):
they would shoot them at our bases
and we would expend $40,000 worth of ammo
to try to shoot these really cheap rockets down
so US military is thinking about this quite a bit
investing in low cost
proven effective solutions to things like that
drones are are an interesting subject
you brought that up I think China is way ahead of us
in terms of what they're doing with drones
and drone swarms I think

(54:50):
the United States is very good at countering UAS
we have a massive investment in counter
UAS programs here in the United States
what are your thoughts on drone swarms
and are they a future of warfare
I look at these things
I think this is the future right here
you know when you can autonomously surround a city
and simultaneously you have ISR over the whole city

(55:11):
and you also have command and control
through communication channels
through the drones
you have an attack mechanism through the drones
and it's very hard to take down 4,000
drones that are surrounding your city
what are your thoughts on this technology
and
this is an area where China is definitely in the lead
yeah you're absolutely right
I again
the lessons of Ukraine in which drone technology

(55:32):
has rendered traditional infantry and armor suicidal
we have to adapt our doctrine
and tactics to match that in real time
and I think it's also proven that
while we might have very fancy drone technologies
they've also been failing in Ukraine
because the battlefield adapts so quickly
if we cannot change do frequency hopping

(55:53):
for example or create jamming resistant UAVs
then the best toys will be out of action very quickly
and I think our contractors have Learned this
and Ukrainians have kind of
embarrassed us by doing a great deal with very little
because they don't have the luxury of time
and they don't have the luxury of
of the budgets that we work with
and so we could really learn a lot there

(56:15):
I mean there's no mystery to what it takes
it's changing the defense procurement process
to enable more nimble competitors to enter it
and create platforms thing yeah
it is I know
it's a beast it's a beast right
but right
that's gotta be part of the solution right
we cannot be reliant on drones
that are being produced by the country
that could be our principal adversary

(56:36):
I mean that's also suicidal
you gotta create a nimble
domestically sourced industry that
and it isn't just building the drones
it's a microelectronics that go in them
now with regard to swarm technology
oh boy
so you know
going back to the secure program
and the question about
how do we do fundamental research
in a way that's a little bit smarter and wiser
there's an entire literature in the field of AI

(56:58):
and robotics
that's happening in the open and fundamental
lightly regulated research space between US
academics and academics in other countries
including China that covers
the kinds of technologies that are used for AI swarms
and up until this point
there hasn't been a kind of good infrastructure
for us to think comprehensively about whoa

(57:18):
what are we doing here what is this mean
what are the potential applications
the secure program is I think
designed to help
people who work in technologies like this
make better choices about who they collaborate with
and what the ultimate
applications of that fundamental research are
because I can point I I have them on file
examples
of collaboration with academics in other countries

(57:40):
where those foreign academics explode implicitly
are publishing in the area of creating drone
swarms to attack US aircraft carriers
so should we be working with those individuals
given we know that this is their research agenda
and priorities
that are being funded by their governments
there is a very active line of research in China
that is oriented towards marshaling drone

(58:02):
swarms to overcome US technological advantage
in the event to the kinetic war in the region
so yeah it's real yeah
it's it's 100% real and I was at a conference recently
and one of the commanders for
I won't mention the unit
but they were talking about the future of US infantry
is first person view
drone pilots embedded in every infantry unit

(58:23):
because those end drones can fly at 200 miles per hour
and you know you get quick access to a target
you have a good lay to land
and you can really supply a lot of fast intelligence
and deliver effects on a target very
very quickly and very precisely
if you've ever seen those FPV drones
those things are crazy they go super fast
they can maneuver and without
I think that's an interesting development

(58:43):
it's kind of a reaction to what we're seeing in Ukraine
you're seeing doctrine built in the United States
military saying okay
well
we need to start adapting this technology ology quickly
and then the other thing he mentioned was
more focus on integration
so he mentioned the launch of a new integration
military occupational specialty
so it's a essentially an integrator job
your job is integrate
your job is to take technology here

(59:04):
and technology here
grow them together and apply them on the battlefield
I think we have some really smart people in
the United States military that are looking
at this stuff
and they're not just sitting on their hands or saying
okay what do we need to do now
to prepare for these crazy scenarios
you mention
like US naval vessels being attacked by drone swarms
that's amazing
we we need to encourage and reward a maker culture 100%

(59:26):
that's it right there yeah
yeah exactly
cause the ingredients are out there
to know how the resolve is out there
we just need to create the path
for those people to put those great ideas together
in ways and I mean
isn't that what we like to tell ourselves
America does best yeah
so let's make it possible for
for those people to do that
and solve
the problems that they face on the battlefield

(59:48):
in real time
will you mention fixing defense procurement
now this is something I spend all my time in
so I could I could probably talk for an hour on this
but I think what you just brought up is
is exactly the point
point is that it doesn't incentivize innovation
we don't put innovation as the core of our procurement
we put things like oh
we want the lowest cost you know
low price technically acceptable solution
we wanna make sure we spend all our dollars this year

(01:00:10):
so here we go contractor go foil over here instead
we also play this game that's
I think in in many ways false and fake
where we have to pretend that
you know going by the Federal Acquisition Regulations
create some type of fair environment for competition
it really doesn't it's just silly nonsense
you're always gonna have
contractors with an advantage to inside

(01:00:30):
know how the relationships inside of an organization
and instead I'd like to get away from that
movement of focus on fairness
and a focus on innovation
who's gonna innovate the most here
to save the US dollar
to drive better solutions into the marketplace anyways
like I said I could probably sit there for an hour
and talk about that but only get
back to
talking a little bit more about something I read
the other day that I think was
just kind of blew my mind

(01:00:51):
I never really thought about this
and this is has to do with illicit fishing
so I read that 17.4 kg per person
that's the average consumption of a Chinese citizen
for fish okay
so each Chinese citizen consumes roughly
17.4 kg per person
that's like the size of a medium sized pig okay
this is this a lot of fish if you really think about it

(01:01:12):
China consumes
approximately 65 million tons of seafood annually
accounting for about 45% of global consumption
let me read that again cause I messed it all up
China consumes approximately
65 million tons of seafood annually
accounting for about 45% of global consumption
that is a massive amount of seafood

(01:01:32):
now because of that they fished out their waters
and now they have to go
push into territory and new waters
that doesn't belong to them
I read an article from Yale
Yale Environment 3 60 okay
the article is entitled
how China's Expanding Fishing Fleet is depleting
the World's Oceans they talk about how big their naval
their fishing fleet is compared to the United States
what I thought was interesting

(01:01:53):
is that they're comparing
the North Korean fishing vessels to China
the amount of fish that they can catch
and this is what it says most
Chinese ships are so large
that they scoop up as many fish in a week
as a local boat might catch in a year
when you bring that type of capability
for fishing into the water
you deplete the population of fish
and if you're going into other countries territory

(01:02:15):
and doing that out of all the things I listed before
the research stealing the intellectual property theft
all all the things right
the cheating out of all the things
I think this is the area that could lead
food actually lead to a global war
and this is why I think that we're talking about food
right food is the thing
when you get people hungry
they become angry right
they're pushing into other countries territory for fish

(01:02:38):
because they've outfished everything
the demand for fish is through the roof in China
I just to me
it really was an eye opener when I read this article
I said I had no idea that they consume so much
that they were fishing in another territories
and then when you think about it
eventually
they're gonna fish out all those waters in North Korea
right and they're gonna have to move on to places like
Philippine water
and that's where I think it gets a little crazy to me

(01:03:00):
what are your thoughts on their illicit fishing
and what are the global impacts of it
it's a great point
that doesn't get the attention that it deserves
in the United States
one way of thinking about this is rolling back clock
and realizing that China's profound
economic growth has raised the standard of living
for most Chinese people over the last 40 years
and along with that

(01:03:20):
greater wealth is access to higher forms of nutrition
and in particular protein
and you see this most obviously
in the fact that younger Chinese
are several inches taller than their parents
because their diets are more nutritious
when they're growing and so many people are surprised
they have a kind of stereotype of
of Chinese particularly northern Chinese
being relatively short

(01:03:42):
her to European ancestral populations
but not necessarily true and certainly
younger people are much taller
because they
get much more animal protein in their diet now and
and some of that is dairy
which is a non traditional Chinese food
but younger people have been raised on dairy
so they get milk as children
they get much more beef and pork
and then they get seafood
which they have a strong taste for

(01:04:02):
I'm particularly in coastal China
now that with that wealth
with the appetite the money to spend and the technology
China has appeared as a player
in the international fishing market
in a way that it appears in almost every place
sort of you know
when you got 1.4 billion people behind you
you show up in force and the
China's distant fishing fleets are the world's largest

(01:04:24):
now trying to satisfy that appetite for seafood
and they've displaced Japan's fishing fleets
and Korean and Taiwan in the Western Pacific
and in fact there
are regular clashes in waters that are disputed
among those countries between their fishing fleets
and their domestic coast guards
and so regularly you'll read about how Taiwanese
fishermen were apprehended by the Chinese Coast Guard

(01:04:47):
or the Chinese Coast Guard
ran the Japanese fishing vessel
because they're in disputed waters
and these are in fact
some of the incidents which if not handled well
could become sparks
are either deteriorating relations or a trade of blows
this happened with the Philippines recently
in which over contested islands in the South China Sea

(01:05:07):
um Chinese coast guard detains Filipino fishermen
destroys their boats beats them
and obviously you know
people in the Philippines
respond extremely negatively to that
in the US
as a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines
and so it could get complex very quickly
now the waters of the Western Pacific
because they have been overfished for decades

(01:05:28):
by countries um
in addition to China
are a hotspot because of those disputed territories
but China's distant
deep water fishing cleats are going truly global now
such that they are dominant in the squid fisheries
off the coast of South America
in particular off Peru and Chile
vacuuming up immense amounts of seafood
but particular squid
in ways that the local fishing fleets

(01:05:50):
cannot compete with
and you put your finger exactly on it
the local traditional artisanal fisher fleets
which support communities in those countries
are being put out of business
and their way of life is being changed
by these technologically advanced equivalent of fishing
supertankers that arrive
vacuum up immense amounts of fish

(01:06:11):
freeze them and package them on deck
and then they get off loaded and they show up in
in supermarkets without ever really touching dry ground
until that point the traditional
technologically
less advanced countries can't touch that
so it's especially acute in the eastern Pacific um
stretches of the Galapagos
it's especially acute in Oceania

(01:06:33):
the islands of Micronesia
which have the relatively well regulated tuna fisheries
which China is nibbling around the edges of
because of course
tuna is immensely prized and extremely valuable
and it's especially happening off the coast of Africa
in the Gulf of Guinea
where it is destroying traditional communities
that just simply cannot compete

(01:06:54):
their boats can't travel as far
the very powerful well connected
rich
Chinese fishing companies are bribing local officials
to get them to overlook their fishing regulations
so there is an intense almost wild west
competition for these diminishing global fish stocks
just that that number of just really stood out to me
they consume 45% of the Earth's fish

(01:07:16):
I mean that's insane to me anyways
it's a global problem yeah
yeah I mean
just out of all the things
my instinct is that that's the thing that could really
spark some type of global conflict
because it's dealing with food
and you just don't mess with people's food
you don't mess with their money
you don't mess with their food
those are the two things that people just
will be up in arms about
let's switch over to technology a little bit more

(01:07:37):
I mean I know we talked about drones
but saw this tweet the other day
that was put out by Mario Northwall
he's he puts out a bunch of very news focused stuff
and this is what it says it says
tech domination China leaves us in the dust
China's got the tech game unlocked
leading in 57 of 64 critical technologies
two decades ago it was just three
now they're leading in quantum sensors

(01:07:57):
semiconductors drones
and a few other areas you mention vaccines as well
with 24 technologies at high risk of Chinese monopoly
the global tech race isn't just heating up
it's on fire and that says who will lead the future
recently Google actually
I think just yesterday
they put out their new quantum ship
which is crazy to think about
by the way their new quantum chip

(01:08:18):
Google's new quantum chip
it was just kind of an aside in the press release
but it just proved that we live in a multiverse
just they just cut through that in there
by the way it can do so many calculations
it can do one with 25 zeros after it
calculations per second
because of the way quantum computing works
it's basically
proven that we have to live in a multiverse
there's no way that it could do that many calculations

(01:08:40):
at the same time
I'm still trying to wrap my head around it
and learn more about that as well
so so so the question is this
China is leading in these very key categories
you mention
like it's not just that they're stealing anymore
it's that they're they're leading
they're pushing in these areas
we think about quantum computing and AI
the question is how do we seize the future

(01:09:01):
or maybe the question is this is whoever wins this race
quantum AI whatever that is
who knows what that is right
like we could sit here and have a conversation about
who knows what that even means
I think perception of what that means is gonna be
so a skew 10 years from now
do we need to be doing more to directly block China
and advancing this and if they do
what are they going to with an AI advantage

(01:09:23):
let's say if they do develop one
I think we're still I think United States is still good
but I think their their government funds a lot more AI
tools and technologies
what do we do if they win this race
this is my question it took me a long time to get there
I want to apologize what do we do
China wins this race to quantum AI
there we go there is a lot in there
so let me see if I can

(01:09:43):
the Google announcement that you mentioned
is an important breakthrough
in the sense of being a proof
of concept it demonstrated that
that particular chip has quantum advantage
and quantum supremacy
and has achieved something that no other chip has done
and they they actually moved it beyond simulation
moved it beyond theory and implemented
but it is sort of a one trick pony at this point

(01:10:05):
and it is not clear
whether that achievement translates into
any actual practical application
for the moment
it may be that the practical applications
because the field moves so quickly
emerge in five years for this technology or 25 years
that is where you will get fierce debates
from people within the quantum community

(01:10:25):
about how ripe and mature this stuff is
for practical applications
now the most obvious practical application
is in factorization problems
which have real applications in breaking cryptography
so that's definitely received a lot of attention and
and rightly so but quantum semiconductors

(01:10:46):
in quantum chip technology
generally is not as versatile as
as classical semiconductors
in classical computing technologies
and so
they tend to do a rather limited range of problems
phenomenally well now having said that
there's a lot of sensationalistic reporting about like
who's out in front in which technologies
or how many technologies China in the United States

(01:11:09):
and everything comes down to the metrics you use
and the methodologies that you use
to come up with your findings
on that I
believe that a lot of that
more headline grabbing reporting is a
is a little bit extreme is not founded
The United States is still highly competitive
if not leading in a great many of those technologies
though
there might be particular corners in which China is

(01:11:31):
out in front
but the story there is not necessarily who's
who's like a little in front or a little behind
it's that suddenly we are in a race
what and and it happened
almost while we were asleep at the wheel
simply assuming
that what had always worked for us in the past
would continue to work for us in the future
because nobody had the comprehensive wealth

(01:11:52):
resolve and ability to mobilize to challenge us
that's no longer the case
so quantums is an area
which is a great example of how research security
military security
and basic economic competitiveness all come together
because the United States cannot do
cannot win the quantum race on its own

(01:12:13):
there are a lot of places particularly in Europe
which are exceptionally good at quantum
that continue to work with partners around the world
including those in China and so
any solution to quantum competition with China
has to be multilateral we cannot again
retreat into Fortress America
and simply close off collaboration between American

(01:12:34):
scientists and Chinese scientists
because leading other scientists around the world
will continue to work with China
and will be the ones who are isolated
and falling behind
we need a more nimble set of solutions there
what troubles me about the quantum race in particular
is something that you could find
across a lot of sectors in the United States
and that is quantum and AI in general

(01:12:57):
are becoming so phenomenally expensive to do
that the traditional centres of
excellence in scientific research
which have been our universities
our national labs can no longer afford to do them
and they're getting left behind
and they're being essentially
corporateized by a very small number of extremely rich
well resource companies whether it's Google

(01:13:19):
IVM Open AI
Microsoft but
it really is
a handful of companies that can afford the
the many billions of dollars
in order to drive this technology forward
and that is good so long as it lasts
in the quantum space
the hyper concentration of development is such that
if that technology does not

(01:13:40):
offer the returns on investment
that satisfies shareholders two
five 10 years from now
those companies may pivot in another direction
they may say you know what
we spent a lot of money on this
it turned out to be a bit of a dead end
we're gonna spend our money on other things
and then the US ability to stay in the quantum race
will be diminished whereas
China won't be subject to those kinds of restraints

(01:14:04):
and will continue to be pushing ahead
so we have a you know
I I am very pro market but market forces
also introduce certain vulnerabilities
because capital can be fickled
so we've got to find ways to
sustain our effort in this area
that are not dependent on a handful of CEOs
and that is true also in the AI space
it's true in semiconductors and a number of others

(01:14:25):
we become so hyper concentrated in a few places
and the places that drove our initial innovation
in the high point of American technological leadership
which were our labs and our universities
finding it harder to have a presence in those spaces
and it's also true in some of those key technologies
that while we might be on the leading edge
of the research side we're doing a really poor job

(01:14:48):
of
converting that knowledge into commercialized product
particularly tangible products
that have to be manufactured
because we've lost the manufacturing ability
and our capital markets don't reward people
who are willing to take the risk on building things
when you could make money on Bitcoin or social media
so consequently
the IP might be developed in the United States

(01:15:10):
but when you get to the point where
you wanna build a pilot demonstration project
prove that this thing is viable at scale
they have to go to Asia to manufacture it
and then you lose the IP
and not only do you lose that sort of background IP
but in the process of manufacturing it
the people who manufacture it
will do process innovation
and they will improve upon your IP

(01:15:32):
and take it further than you could have
and then the United States loses that
so we've seen this in industry after industry
battery technologies
another great industry in which this has happened
and the challenge for the United States is not only
how do we preserve the research side of it
but how do we ensure that we fix
the problems in the capital markets
and the values of death
so that innovators here in the United States

(01:15:53):
can actually build in the United States
create jobs in the United States
and create those virtuous cycles of innovation here
it's funny mention the value of death
because that's something I've experienced personally
it's it is real
if you try to innovate for the government
and create some software
it will end up in that valley in some way
shape or form
but the question about quantum what makes it so
not just quantum

(01:16:13):
but also artificial general intelligence
maybe I should say if you get to a point where the AI
is improving itself at a rate that is sufficient right
if it's improving itself making itself better
essentially you've created a god right
you've created something that's so knowledgeable
and understands the universe
in such a way that humans can't quite fathom this

(01:16:33):
the question is if China wins that
if they get to that point where they have this AGI
person maybe it's a simplistic way of to think of AGI
there's different ways we can think about AI
but in a very simple method
do they have the will to dominate
the rest of the world with the tool like that
China I think I would
not attribute the will to dominate the world
to the Chinese leadership

(01:16:55):
and they certainly
want a world that is congenial to their interests
they are hyper aware of the immense blood
and treasure that the United States has spent
managing its various interests around the world
and Chinese strategists will often write that
that's not a trap that they wanna fall into
because it's very expensive
now they may stumble into it

(01:17:16):
because they've developed interests around the world
economically
but they're conscious of the fact that in some ways
that's kind of like a burden on a nation
they would like to kind of ride the way
without having to invest very deeply in
in it in the way that the United States has
but if they develop AGI
it creates all kinds of questions
for military escalation for example

(01:17:38):
we've got to and we are having those conversations
with the Chinese government
with Chinese firms about escalation control
crisis control
because when you think about the Cuban missile crisis
it was human beings you know
in the White House um
in the Kremlin who had just a few days
a few days seemed incredibly short
here you might have a few seconds
if you don't think about these problems in advance

(01:18:00):
for crisis controlling
and ensuring that human beings stay in the loop
but there will always be that pressure with AI
to accelerate it because the adversary might have AI
and fewer humans in the process and in the loop
the TRC is extremely concerned
about the possibilities of AI
because a regime that survives on information control

(01:18:23):
and information dominance
can't simply surrender that to an AI model
and so you see in Chinese LLMs
for example
they're highly competitive in many respects with uslms
but they also are kinda handcuffed
in particular corners
that have to do with sensitivities regarding the CCP
and so

(01:18:43):
I think there's a genuine question about whether the
CCP's sensitivities
about its political monopoly
will become an inhibitory
will have an inhibitory effect on AI and AGI
it'll be really good for particular
industrial applications but a broader base
comprehensive general intelligence
this I think
would be even more threatening to the regime than
anything voice of America could put out

(01:19:05):
so all right
well you ease my fears a little bit
okay not as worried about AGI
maybe I'll sleep a little bit better tonight
yeah well
I mean AGI is fiercely debated anyway
about what it really means
it's almost a philosophical war between
people in the AI community
keeping us focus on technology
I read this today actually
that China has successfully invented a surgery
for curing alzheimer's disease

(01:19:27):
known as LVA surgeries
it is performed on neck lymphatic
so far there have been 42 clinical trials
and all have been successful
you mentioned previously about
not just these high tech areas
but high tech medicine
is an area where China is actually making straws
I guess my question regarding that is
do we focus too much
on human rights in the United States

(01:19:48):
and is it their lack of care for human rights
or is there lack of care for human rights
that enables them to push
the boundaries on so many different medical fronts
or is it just purely their culture of innovation
that is pushing some of these things
I I see all these crazy things about China
you know
using animals and humans and all this silly stuff
but my thought is like okay
well why shouldn't we look at how

(01:20:10):
an animal's DNA could affect the human's DNA
and for certain things what are your thoughts on this
right um
that's a great question now
I'm not familiar with this particular
I just read it today so maybe overall
but I will say this is a general observation
because I watched the China tech space
really carefully in the innovation space
and there's phenomenal
world leading work coming out of China

(01:20:31):
but there is also a very heavy state driven
propaganization of China's innovation
such that certain things are spun
much more spectacularly than
you know you scratch the surface and there's nothing
there's not really really there
see this especially in the eye space
and semiconductors and quantum in a lot of areas
and so figuring out how much is smoke and spin

(01:20:54):
and how much is real is always a challenge
and sometimes the propaganda headlines
picked up in western reporting
that China has achieved XY or Z
and we're actually carrying their water for them
rather than going up deeper realize
not realizing that
there is a lot of propaganda attached to this stuff
now about the human rights concerns look
the United States developed human subjects protections

(01:21:16):
because we had a history of exploiting
vulnerable populations
and whether it was racial minorities
whether it was women
whether it was pregnant women in biomedical research
because people have the freedom
make unethical choices
in the absence of hard and fast rules
and reviews around this stuff
and those processes
and protections were adopted in the 70s and 80s

(01:21:38):
largely in response to very real scandals
in which people were abused
and so
I would never say that we should do away with them
it's always a question of you know
protections are there for a good reason
but sometimes protections canon
like any regulation can inhibit innovation
and so it's always a question of balance
and it's probably good to revisit these things

(01:21:58):
from time to time
but we should always keep first and forefront
the fact that human beings are involved
and we need to protect human dignity and privacy and
and the integrity of human bodies
and also the social impact of the technologies
I mean what a different world we would live in
if the people who created our social media technologies
had thought for a moment about the potential
negative social
impact of what they were unleashing on the world

(01:22:19):
but they didn't market forces
rewarded them for doing a particular set of things
and so now
we're in the world where we worry about TikTok
we worry about the effect on presidential elections
we worry about what it does to our kids
for biomedical research in China
you have to acknowledge that
China has a different set of cultural norms
that are different than those in the United States
and our traditional western partners

(01:22:40):
which largely come out of Judeo Christian ethical norms
so there are things about fetuses
about about uses of DNA for example
that might resonate differently
in a Chinese cultural context
they are also beginning to build
some of the protections
in regulatory and statutory forms that
on their principal research partners have
partly to prove that they are good

(01:23:00):
international research citizens
because there have been scandals in China as well
and those exist on paper but China has really uneven
record of enforcing its formal regulations
and sometimes
because there's perverse incentive structures
that will reward people for achieving breakthroughs
or for claiming to achieve breakthroughs
people will bend the rules

(01:23:21):
people will overlook the rules
and maybe not bear the consequences
so the enforcement side can
sometimes be really variable and weak
and there will be Chinese researchers
who will take risks and then sometimes
and in the case of China this is extremely real
the ambition to rapidly scale the league tables
in a particular technology
the national governmental ambition to become

(01:23:41):
a world leader will override the ethical concerns
and so there is a real question about
how much they're willing to slow themselves down
by playing
by the kinds of human rights rules that others do
and then there are applications of biomedical research
and genomic research
that have direct consequences on police populations
in China in particular Tibetans and Uyghurs

(01:24:04):
in which they do not have the freedom to consent
to the collection of their DNA
which can be used to surveil them to repress them
and so that's I think
a great example of how
when you work with non traditional research partners
who are not Liberal democracies
who are authoritarian states
that operate according to different standards
and political ideologies you know

(01:24:25):
the research may seem clean
unproblematic but that research may have applications
in the context of that other nation
which you need to think about hard
that may not even occur to you in a US context
because we're not in the habit of
running concentration camps
with millions of people in them
and the secure program again

(01:24:45):
is meant to help
our researchers think through those kinds of problems
it is critically important
as we work in a more complex international environment
in which nations have different histories
and standards than us
if we're gonna do science with them
we're gonna do industrial collaboration
and partnerships with them
to kinda take them where they are
as they are and figure out okay
given that how do we work

(01:25:06):
in a way that's consistent with our values
and interests
I know you have a hard stop soon but before you go
I wanna see if we can get some kinda rapid
fire questions here I have so many questions
and I feel like
you've really helped me understand China
a lot more I I'm telling you
I I walked into this with next to no knowledge
I mean just very little knowledge
maybe more than the average citizen
but I feel now like I have a much better idea

(01:25:26):
of what China actually is
when I hear the word China
I'll have a different sense of what the
the nation of China is so some quick questions for you
and then we can hop off
what are three books that someone can read
to learn more about China
I think a great book Kevin Rudd
the former prime minister of Australia
are
currently Australia's ambassador to the United States

(01:25:46):
Trust wrote a hard deep locust xijin thing
trying to sort of educate our son
who is this guy what matters to him
what does he think about
I think that's a great deep dive into
into that individual another book is by the historian
also an Australian actually
come to think of it um
John Fitzgerald called Kodrick Country

(01:26:07):
which is a short book it's very readable
but it's a great introduction to how China
and its government is organized
in ways that might be really
unfamiliar to the United States
that will make a lot of how China acts in the world
sort of tractable for the average American reader
and so let me just offer those two
you're giving me this cold question

(01:26:27):
let me think on a good third one
you're good you're good
send me the third book
and I'll put it in the description somewhere
for those of you who are interested in mill topics
I'm gonna refer you to something we did in house
at the Hoover Institution
called the Boiling Moat
and this one's great cause it's a freebie
you can download the PDF from Hoover dot org
just look for the Boiling Moat

(01:26:48):
it's an edited volume together by um
former Deputy National Security Advisor Matt Pottenger
who's one of our fellows that takes a hard
look about what it would take to preserve peace
and security and turrence in the Taiwan Strait
in military terms and it has a
great cross section of collaborators in it
I think it probably would be a
very much of interest to your audience

(01:27:09):
I will place
a link to the boiling mode in the description
so no matter where you're listening or watching this
check out the description
I'll put a link there
you can access that boiling mode that he mentioned
all right
what's it like working with Conda Lisa Rice haha
she's a phenomenal inspirational leader
who's brought it
a new energy to the Hoover Institution
I think it's been a real privilege to work under her

(01:27:30):
and someone who is extraordinarily gifted
in so many ways I mean
a fluent Russian speaker amazing concert pianist
has served our country in numerous capacities
and I was reflecting the other day on how
you know there's certain individuals
where you look at their life stories
and you say they've lived for five lives enough

(01:27:52):
or a whole fan full of people right
oh she was a child
during the church bombings in Birmingham Alabama
her father was a pastor um
she remembers what that was like
Jim Crow America she was present
and played a role in the reunification of Germany
when the Berlin Wall came down
she was of course
by President Bush's side at 9 11

(01:28:13):
um she has been in so many critical sort of
junctures of America
and is a walking kind of repository of wisdom that
like I say it's been a joy to work for her
and I think Hoover's never been stronger as
as under her leadership that's awesome
she's definitely one of my inspirations
when you think about people that are like man

(01:28:33):
the people I like to add is my role models
or people that I know are better than me
it's like certain people are not
like she's way better than me probably at everything
she probably runs faster than me
she probably lifts more than me
I don't know she's definitely smarter than me
so she's definitely
I have to say working at Hoover that is also a joy
like you look in any direction
and there's someone that you can learn from

(01:28:54):
and model yourself on and
and help make yourself better
so yeah I hear you on that okay
and then this this is a question that's actually
just through my research online
one of
the most popular questions that's asked on Google is
why did China build the Great Wall right
so there an important thing to understand is
there is not a single Great Wall
the Great Wall is a kind of combination of

(01:29:14):
a multiplicity of walls
that were built over several thousand years
that were never exactly connected
they were built by different dynasties
different rulers different emperors
all for specific purposes
so the Great Wall is kind of a misnomer
I mean it is a thing if you add up all the pieces
and so why did they build it
a lot of reasons but one of the principal ones is

(01:29:37):
North China borders an area of the steps of Russia
in which nomadic tribes lived
that would come raiding out of the steps
into the sedentary agricultural plains of North China
and sees their well
take over their cities and warfare and that nature
and so you know
going back historically keeping those nomadic tribes
on the other side of the wall was

(01:29:57):
was one of the reasons they built the wall
but very often actually
it was more effective to simply
buy off those tribes
by making alliances with their leaders
investing them with titles
and sending them tribute from time to time
so you bought the piece very often
the wall was not the barrier to invasion
that some people might have thought
it was in fact
sometimes the the generals who manned the wall
were bribed to open the gates

(01:30:18):
and let in those armies okay
it all makes more sense now
well Glenn
thank you so much amazing stuff
one last thing how can people learn more about you
and what you're doing at the Hoover Institute
where should they go to find out more about you
well thank you
take a look at our program
the program on us trying on the world
it's Hoover dot org backslash
USCW for US China and the world

(01:30:40):
all of our work is up there
my work is up there and I would encourage
any of your audience to take a look at our resources
we do podcast we do regular speaker series
we do publications
thanks so much for being here
I'll make sure to put all that
cool stuff in the description
so you can access everything easily
appreciate you thank you
it's been a great pleasure all right

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}China's THREAT to the US: A MASTERCLASS with Glenn Tiffert