Episode Transcript
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(00:00):
Good morning, and welcome to MoneySense. You're listening to the advisors of
Kursten Wealth Manager Group, Kevin Kursten, Brad Kurston and Dennis Kurstin. Happy
to be with you this morning aswe are recording this show on a CPI
day, So very good information fromfrom the CPI report that we'll go through
here today as CPI hits its lowestlevels, well lowest levels, and what
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you gotta go home more than yougotta go back all the way till probably
October of twenty one. I wasjust saying today at lunch the last CPI
report before that, the last CPIreport that the Fed passed on was the
February going into March one where theCPI was seven point five and they did
not raise after that. They startedraising in April, so we're past a
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year of them raising and in Aprilthe CPI I've got right here in front
of me. Well, no,I've got one year back. We were
twelve straight months of down, Okay, June of last year was nine point
one. Every single month after thatwas down. And the anticipation was that
this was going to come in asa monthly number of point four and an
annual number of three point two two. That was they now cast Cleveland inflation
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prediction as of a day ago,and this morning it comes the monthly number
comes in at point two, andthe annualized number they're posting as three,
the true number was actually two pointnine seven. So actually on the annual
or below three, and so thatsounds better than three. I think two
point nine seven sounds better than three. We're talking about inflation now, if
we were talking about your annual yourannual return of your bonds, I'd say
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three, yeah, yeah, nottwo point ninety seven. But the surprising
thing to me and all this isnot that things have come down. It's
really two things. We have hadthis constant complaint, if you will,
from everybody looking at CPI and sayyeah, but and the yeah butt to
me has been let me know whenmy food prices are actually down. Let
me know when I'm actually paying lessfor things, not when i'm when I'm
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the increases are going down. That'swhat we're getting, especially on food right
now. If you take a lookjust at the egg prices, eggs.
Eggs have been the one that everybodywants to talk about the average egg price
in the United States right now istwo twenty two with a peak of four
eighty two, So two eighty twogone down again for twelve straight months.
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We have had we had a periodof time well really from June of twenty
one all the way through two monthsago where they were higher, so we
are actually lower. We had aperiod of time in two thousand and fifteen
and sixteen were for an entire yearthey were higher, and we had a
period of time briefly in two thousandand seven where they were higher. So
we actually do have lower prices onthings that people complaining about. It's not
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just that the increase has slowed down. And take a look at something like
you can you can pull up anything, but every food price is actually lower
over the last year, So it'snot just that the increase is there.
Take year bacon and eggs price,bacon and eggs canbine peaked at eleven sixty
three pound of bacon and a dozeneggs. We're a full three dollars more
than that, three dollars and twentycents lower than that. And again there
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were periods of time where we werespent an entire year higher in sixteen and
really we've spent we spent almost twoyears on both of those combined being higher,
so truly lower, not just alower increase, and so I think
people will be somewhat surprised over thenext month or two when they go and
they're actually paying less than they werea year ago, and significantly so.
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So I think those are all goodthings for the market. But the other
surprising thing to me is that ourexpectation of what the Fed's going to do
in two weeks has not changed.Here you are truly below three on an
annual basis, and you're still factoringin an eighty five percent chance that the
Fed's going to raise another time.I don't see why they would. Well,
no, obviously, you're two percenthigher than the FED funds rate is
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two percent higher than inflation. Nowwe all know the inflation numbers are going
to trickle higher by the end ofthe year. The question is by how
much do they trickle to the lowfours? Do they trickle to the high
fours? That's the range that we'rethat we're looking at at even so they're
still above that. So I don'treally see the need other than the fact
that they've already said they're gonna doit, so they don't want to back
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track, and they've gone with marketexpectation every single time that they've raised.
So we're going fifteen months here ofthem doing the market expectation, and so
at some point they have to backoff of that if the markets, if
they don't need it. I don'tknow why they would do it. Here
we are, you're talking about whereit's gonna bounce to. I don't think
we're gonna even bounce over four.And when you look at what the last
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month, three month and twelve monthhas been. The twelve month, like
I mentioned, two point nine seven, the three month average is two point
seven. What's the sixth month?And well, I don't I can,
I can pull it up pretty quickly. But the one month, you know,
we talked about it being point two, it was actually point one eight.
So the only the one month onepoint point one eight annualized is pretty
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dang low. That's in the lowtwos. The three month is two point
seven. So we're on a paceof write what the Fed wants and well
you'll see about back over four bythe end of the year and then straight
back down. Now, why doyou say that because of the monthly number
you're dropping off. So the nextmonth, you're dropping off a point zero
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zero, Okay, so anything higherthan point zero zero next month, you're
going up the month after that.So calling eleven months ago the monthly number
was point one, So anything higherthan point one and you're going up a
little bit more. But how muchIf we come in at point three,
the next two months, you're talkingabout going up point three and then point
two, So a half a percenton three that takes you to three point
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five, and then you're going backdown because you have a series of point
four. It's like you're hitting Yeah, you're the big baseball guy, Denny.
It's like for the first three monthsof the season, you're hitting four
hundred, right, Yeah. Theonly way to keep him out right,
Yeah, Like, the only wayto keep hitting four hundred if you replace
a four hundred, if you goone for three, If you go one
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for three, great, But you'rebatting average came down. Your batting average
came down, right, But you'reyou're month that's part of twelve months,
right. No, I'm just sayingwhat you're replacing, and there's a little
bit of compounding, so it doesgo up a little bit more, but
you get to the end of theyear. December of last year was point
seven five unless we have a hugespike, all right, that that that
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report that gets reported in January isgoing to be significantly lower, and that'll
be the point where we're in thetwo is and never going back up.
I mean diesel fuel, yeah,I mean that's another one that since June
of last year we've gone straight down. Now. Now, diesel was a
little bit more stubborn. We werewe were above I think we were above
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five fifty for most of last yearand the low three now yeah, So
that goes to shipping costs, thatgoes to food costs, that goes to
everything that brings things to market,and so that is very deflationary. Right,
Well, we have a stubborn numberin there, and it's going to
continue to be stubborn because this isnot an easy fix. Uh. When
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you look at the only reason thatwe've seen any sort of increase, and
it's the cost of shelter. Thecost of shelter is still higher. You
know, we've seen an increase indevelopment in multi family homes in particular,
but once of development starts, peopledon't it takes a while. So when
you look at it, this willhelp lessen the pressure on rents in a
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year, not right away, soyou know, it does take some time
for these things to flow through.I saw a chart, and you know
it's it's not complicated. Everyone's likethe only way for prices to come back
down is for rates to come backdown. That is wrong, That is
against econ one on one. Igot this huge chart here that you guys
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are looking at from Payton and Paytonand Regal, and it's pretty simple.
Okay, if you look at thelast thirty years and you look at the
upper left, more houses, lowerprices, less houses, So I'm sorry,
upper left ear is is the numberof how less houses, higher prices?
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So where what countries do you seethe highest prices? Czech Republic,
Ireland, Iceland, New Zealand.Where do you see the lowest prices?
Well probably maybe some places you wouldn'twant to live, but Brazil, Romania,
France, Belgium, Finland, inItaly, United States is sort of
right in the middle. But ifwhat we build more, if we build
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more, prices will come down.Yeah, okay, that's what this chart
tells you. Yea, more houses, lower prices. There's people out there
right now that are spinning a tailto say, well, people are stuck
in their houses and the only wayprices are going to come down is to
get rates back down again. Thatis nonsense. The only way prices are
going to come back down is ifwe have more houses, you lower rates
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so that there's more supply on themarket. That doesn't fix the problem that
we have a shortage of houses basedon our population. That there's a shortage
of a lot of things. Okay, housing is one of them, and
a lot of this stands from COVIDright we went, We went a year
without building because you couldn't find anybodyto do it, and you couldn't get
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supply, and lumber prices are throughthe roof. It takes a long time
to get through that. And theemployment picture is that the whole employment picture.
Once you laid everybody off and sendeverybody home, it's slow to get
everybody back and then people can pickand choose. And I think over the
next five to ten years the entireemployment market will we will have an early
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adoption of all the AI technologies andit's already really started, and that will
fix the employment shortage that we haveand So we're gonna have a little discussion
about what was on sixty minutes ina later segment. But I think there's
a lot of this fear out therewith AI that is completely misguided. It
will fix a lot of the problemsand a lot of the things that will
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be happening with companies will all bea benefit to the individual and a benefit
to the company's profit margins. Andthat's the big story. So you know,
I think that lowering rates would probablyfix the the price issue in the
CPI quickly, but it doesn't solvethe problem long term. Okay, let's
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solve the problem long term build.And by the way, if we have
a boom in this country of buildingthat would that would be a good thing
for the overall economy too. Buthow about things like uh affordableness of long
term care and those facilities. Idon't know anybody that says, well,
I got a great deal when Iput my mother in a long term care
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facility. You know that means there'snot enough of them. Go build more.
And that's what capitalism and the greedof the investor will do, is
you'll go build another one because ofhow much you can get for those rents.
That's what fix it. What thegovernment would want to do is say
we need some price fixes on thishousing for the elderly. No we don't.
We just need to build more.Right, you know these numbers.
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I was looking at the the theunderlying CPI numbers that are in there,
and you mentioned gas and diesel inparticular. Actually, it's been pretty um,
pretty stable. You know, thedollars per gallon. I mean November
is three sixty nine, today's threefifty seven, and the range since November
is the lowest is three twenty fourand the highest is three sixty nine.
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That's pretty stable anecdotally. I thinkyou see that everywhere you go, even
if you're traveling. It's pretty prettystable from state to state even um.
But yeah, diesel is the oneto look at these rents. Look at
these year on year rent numbers consistentlyfrom November seven point nine, eight point
four, eight point six, eightpoint eight, eight point eight, eight
point eight, eight point seven eightnumber year on year rent increases. Yeah,
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yeah, so no drops there.It's it's the it's the most stubborn
of those apartments going up everywhere.Well, guess what, there's still not
enough because when you know when itwill be enough, when the inflation comes
down. Yeah, that's that's thenumber that it's enough. So I'm not
talking about area, no. Youknow, we were in North Carolina and
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in that whole area, every everythingyou drive through it apartments everywhere. Ye.
So back to the markets. Themarkets are responding, you know,
positively. The SP five hundred stillup fifteen point eight seven percent on the
year. You know, it's stillvery narrow. I mean you have all
the growth sectors up a whole lotmore NASDAC, you know, lead Technology
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index, Communication Services, consumer discretionary, all growth indexes. Value not doing
as well. Large value only upfour point six eight on the year.
So that's pointing out to you.You have four negative sectors and one other
one that's pretty much flat out ofthirteen is it thirteen? I thought we
were only eleven sectors, but Ithought there was I thought we experianded this
so well. We put one on, which was communication services two years ago.
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It's four negative even out of eleven, and only three beating. So
you have three sectors out of elevenbeating, eight lagging and pretty sharply so
well, and you look at smallsmall caps only up eight point four,
midcaps up nine point six. SoI think there's some catch up to be
had in the second half of theyear for those areas Una met camp.
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You're lumping the whole thing eth andvalue right right, the value I'm pone
to that where you're finding a lotof remat banks, sure, but midcamp
in general. If you look atthe index industrials in the number one sector,
tech is about number four or fivein that index. So just by
going smaller to mid and small,if that was the adjustment you were going
to make for the back half,you're reducing those areas that have have moved
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the most in technical and international wasleading the way early in the year has
cooled off a little bit as well. Small camp relative to large camps really
the widest difference in a long longtime, isn't that right? Yeah?
Not only in the last call itthree years, but if you look at
what's furthest away from all time high. Yeah, if you want to make
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that adjustment to say everything will takeits turn, and being in a leader
the Russell twenty twenty seven percent awayfrom its all time high, it's the
furthest of all the major indussease youknow, one knock on this market this
year with the rally has been howexpensive the SMP five hundred has gotten at
nineteen times earnings. But and I'mnot saying valuations should be the only metrics
someone uses to determine what to buy. But if you are concerned about valuation,
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the SMP five hundred is expensive slightly. But here's the good news.
It really is the only index inthe world that is trading above its long
term price to earnings ratio. Soyou have twelve thousand stocks in the world,
three thousand, seven hundred stocks theUnited States, three thousand, two
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hundred of them are all trading lessthan their long term price to earnings ratio,
and the other eight thousand around theworld are also trading less. You're
looking at small CATB index trading ateleven or twelve times earnings, the International
EFA Index trading at ten times earnings. Yeah, okay, emerging markets single
digits. Well, you're you're sayingthe whole SMP five hundred, but you
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probably could pull out fifty names andsay the other the other four four nine
four, well, four hundred andfifty are probably also not under overvalued.
So if you've missed out on therally. There's a lot of places to
go. I'm seven to ten stocksand the resting of them. Yeah,
what sixteen right now? Yep,fifteen eight seven Maybe not hound in the
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name, but uh, the equalwent five hundred I think eight and a
half or somethime like. Yeah,a much much different story. So to
say that the rally's done and there'sit will need to broaden out. It
has to broaden out for it tokeep going. And that's that's what we're
looking for in the second half yearwe get back from the break. I
want to go over a quick discussionI had with a client today Brad about
risk and and especially how risk haschanged and risk parameters has changed with the
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rise in interest rates, with thewhole treasury market going up based on the
Fed Fund FED increasing rates. You'relistening to money Sense, Kevin, Brad
and Dennis. Kirsten will be rightback and welcome back here listening to the
advices of Kristen Wealth Manager Group.Brad, Dennis and Kevin here with you
this morning, talking about the markets, talking about CPI and kind of a
constant, constant discussion about investors maybewho were underweighted the market throughout the first
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half of this year and what todo. But there's really kind of two
investors in this market, ones thatmissed out, and we're constantly talking about
that, right people who are underweightedstocks are bailed a little bit, and
what to do. And we're mentioningthat in the last segment that there's all
these areas of the market that areundervalued. But then there's the other side
of the market, ones that eitherstuck with it or got more aggressive,
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bought a little bit more of thegrowth related last year and are doing very
well. And I think we needto talk about that a little bit too,
because if you turn on the TV, you're gonna find probably not a
lot of people agreeing with you andthat you should be staying in. So
there's kind of a two sides ofit, you know, the the you
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can't find anybody agreeing with you,and yet things are working and you don't
want to be too greedy, andso you kind of have to look at
the expected returns over periods of timeand say, what are my alternatives now?
And we have a lot of them. So before we get into that
discussion on the way, there's peoplethan haven't haven't been in and they want
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up m o m o fomo.Fear of missing out, fear of missing
out. Well, there's and it'sthe I think people when they're getting out
forget what it feels like to beout and watch a market go straight up.
And people who are in right nowthey feel like the market's going up.
If you're out, you feel likeit's going straight up, and there
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will never find a time to getback in. I saw a definition here
that it kind of encompasses exactly themarket that we're seeing right now. Because
when you turn on the TV,if if, if you're one of those
that are listening and you're out orin, you'll find this and it's uh.
Jason's Wiggs book, Devil's Financial Dictionary, had a very simple definition here
of irrational and the definition is aword used to describe any investor other than
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yourself irrational. When you turn onthe TV and somebody says the market's going
up, the people listening that aren'tin say that's that's that's overvalued. It
can't keep going up. And thepeople that say, well, the market
has to correct, the people whoare in saying, well, why would
it keeps going up and the peoplewho are out saying, oh that makes
sense, yeah, because I'm waitingfor it because you've been telling me it's
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going to correct. But even thosethat are pounding the table now saying it
has to correct have been saying itfor the last twenty five percent. So
even if they're right, can weget a little correction they've been wrong for
you're not even right. So wehave to kind of talk about now that
rates are up where they are,or do you have all these others areas
of the market that could be participating. It's okay to if you're overweight areas
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now that have you got a littlebit more aggressive and went into growth,
But now that it's run up somuch, rebalancing has to happen over the
next three to four months. It'swhat we're going to be doing to our
models, shrimming back to bring inline and add back to some things like
small caps that haven't participated, likesome of the value areas that haven't participated.
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Because there will be fits and startsof this market. We we'll have
new leadership for a while and stufflike the technology names might go sideways for
a period of time and it smoothsthe road out for your whole portfolio,
and even adding back to some ofthe fixed income areas now that they're paying
close to five percent, you're notgiving up that much. And I think
that's what we need to be thinkingabout and talking about for the next couple
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of months. Then throw something outthere and comparing investing with someone's health,
and there's a bullet point here thatbetween knowing what to do and actually hitting
people to do it, it's enormous. And in this in this book,
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this author asked the doctor, what'sthe hardest part of your job? It
wasn't stress or responsibility, hitting mypatience to do what I asked them them
even when they know they should doit. You should talk about that all
time, Kevin. You know you'resupposed to eat your vegetables, but well,
and then went on to say,you know you you hit this lamp
down. You're seeing the specialist,your mental sen quick smoke, you exercise,
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and they come back a month laterand they haven't done any of it,
okay, and they want another pilland feel better for a quick fix.
There are similarities in investing there.Well, yes, you could write
down the rules and everybody would nodtheir head, yes, that these are
the rules we should follow. Buthardly, if especially if left on their
own, hardly anybody does it.There's a little too much greed in all
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and there's no easing way, andthere's no quick effects to anything, and
and it's ever going to necessarily feelgood. Danny, I'm some of the
best investment decisions that we've ever providedto people or done ourselves have felt horrible
in the moment. And that's notalways just buying at the bottom. That's
selling at the top, and saywell, can you do that? Can
you sell at the top? Theanswers no, can you buy at the
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bottom? No, Okay, you'regoing to be a week early or a
month early when you buy, oryou or you sell. There's no possible
way to sell at the top,buy at the bottom, forget about it.
So you always have to think ofthese things in stages. So now
you're sitting on your portfolio. It'srallied since last October. Okay, so
you're more in equities. Whether youbought at the bottom, which you should
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have done, or close to it, or you did nothing and you just
have more equities because of rebalancing,or maybe you took your withdrawals from your
bonds, which you should have beendoing, or whatever it might be.
You have more in stocks today,but you say, well, it's going
well, well, so if Ichange, I will somehow miss out right.
And it's Stop thinking of it asall or nothing. Stop thinking of
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it as an all or nothing proposition. You are doing this in degrees and
in stages. If you get fifteenpercent out of the market and into treasuries,
guess what the market goes up,You're still gonna go up. Relax,
Okay. But another way of lookingat it, too, with where
yields are, is how much exposureto the market you had to have to
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get a certain return. So Ithought this was kind of an interesting exercise.
I went because I think everybody whenyou eventually go back to either your
baseline level of risk and stocks tobonds, or you're going to go even
more conservative, it should never bedone all at once. Market's up twenty
six percent from October, so doa little bit now, Why well,
that's twenty six percent nine months.That's an annualized forty plus. Okay,
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think of it like this, whenwhen the SMP was at thirty five fifty
seven brand was it was it absurdin your mind to think of the SMP
nine months later to be at fortyfour. It is, of course not
right, not not to me,okay, okay, And I know you're
always pretty bullish. But that samereturn would take the SMP five hundred to
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five thousand, six hundred nine monthsin the next nine months, Well,
that seems logically. That seems muchmore irrational than thirty five hundred forty four
hundred. It just does. Sothe point is you have to reduce your
risk because the easy I won't sayeasy money, the easier money has been
made. But another way of lookingat it too, And let's think about
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a five to seven year outlook.Okay, Denny, five to seven year
outlook probably never really is going tochange for stocks. Sometimes that extremes.
You might be a little higher,a little lower. Let's assume a baseline
level five to seven year outlook onUM stocks right now. But would it
mean always be roughly the same?Right? Yeah, I mean we're still
below what how far below are alltime high? Are we? Yeah?
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Probably probably average? But even ifyou didn't even know where the current market
was, and I just asked you, what would you always say whatever the
long term average, right, eightor nine percent, let's call it nine
percent, Okay, so nine percent, that's always going to not really change
that much because you don't know wherethe market's gonna go. Okay. A
year ago, the one year treasurypaid point two yep. Okay. So
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if you said, you, well, what's your goal? Okay, well
whatever, you even bonds basically payingyou nothing. Yeah, let's assume nothing
year a year ago. So ifmy goal was seven, my goal was
seven. Okay, seven divided bynine. I had to have seventy seven
percent seventy eight percent in stocks,and my goal was seven. Because the
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bonds are not losing, but they'renot gonna make much. Say well,
what about now it would have changed? No, I mean that was your
that was your expectation because that's whereyou were. Bonds are what the yield
are is at the time. Okay, Now fast forward one year. I
want seven, I can get fivein a one year treasury. I can
get five to five in a oneyear treasury. In a one year treasury.
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So if I allocate, say fiftyfifty stocks to bonds two sixty three
plus, you're there. You're you'realready there, it's five and nine.
So another way of looking at riskright now is I can get the same
return with twenty eight percent less inthe market. Yeah, I mean that's
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wonderful. Yeah, that's that Ican get the same expected return with twenty
eight percent less in the market.So when you're making portfolio adjustments and everyone
has that fear of missing out thatDenny mentioned, stop thinking of it.
Because you have the fear of missingout, you also have the fear of
being in, which the fear ofmissing out is like out into the future.
(25:26):
Right, I'm gonna lose all thatmoney. The fear of being in
is like it's happening to me rightnow. Right. Don't forget about that
fear of being in and get greedyagain. And understand that if we stay
where we are right now with interestrates, you can still get the same
return that you would have gotten witha lot less risk. And that's the
that's the wonderful thing about normalized interestrates. I've said time and time again,
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everyone got really greedy and happy abouttheir low mortgages. But I hate
to say it, for a lotof the people that we help that are
that are saving for retirement, that'sgreat we also help a lot of people
that are getting closer to retirement andretirement, what are you getting rid of
debt? Ye, low rates helppeople who want debt. You're retired,
you don't want debt. High ratesand they say, well, why should
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I care? Well, because youcan't get a decent level of fixed income.
So basically what's happening in the lastfifteen years is that retirees are subsidizing
million dollar homes in California. Yeah, because because listen, if the rates
are low and retirees can't get adecent yield on their treasuries, they either
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get less income. It's being subsidizedwith something. Yeah, so Silicon Valley
startups million dollar homes on the beach. Person in northwest Ohio pays the price.
So I don't mind that. Andyou can't call them high rates.
Can you call them high? They'renot high rates. I refinance and I
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was thrilled. Yeah, it wasall relevant. But I mean a lot
of times this this this risk discussionis so buyinary, I'm in, I'm
out, I have all the risk, I have no risk. No,
that's not the way it works.You're reducing risk, but with yields as
high as they are, and treasuriesat the moment you can you can still
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get almost the same return with lessrisk, and that's beautiful. A year,
a year and a half ago wehad we spent a lot of time
where reducing risk meant I'm basically pullingmyself out of everything, because when you're
getting point one or the expected returnof any bond was one percent, you're
basically out of everything, right becausethese dollars aren't going to do anything,
and all you're doing is pushing moneyto the sideline for future withdrawals, and
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that's it. And so the levelthat you had to have there was pretty
low because so many idle dollars.Another point of bonds, you know,
you're starting rates mostly your return,but obviously the yields are higher and increase
up or down a little bit,and rates has less effect on the performance
of that bond, right right,right, A move from one to two
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is a doubling, yeah, amove from four to five is twenty five
percent. Yeah, okay, soyou know that that that makes a huge
difference as well. A lot ofthat extremental point two five or a half
a percent. And that's why thelast five years for the sixty forty portfolio
has been terrible. It's not becauseof the sixty. The sixty did fine,
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it's the forty did terrible. Soyou know, and that's why when
you look at the sixty forty portfolioin the seventies and eighties, the numbers
weren't really that bad because you hada ten percent yield. Yeah. Yeah,
So it's been much worse for thatblended balanced retiree, and that is
now changing. And then then thefinal thing people get a little bit nervous
(28:42):
about because there's this mentality that theFED raises rates, therefore stocks must do
bad, which really has not alwaysbeen true. People act like it's always
true. It's been true in thelast ten years. It was not true
in the last sixty years. Okay, And so we have to get out
of the mentality that we have togo back down to zero. And I
(29:02):
would argue right now, if theFED reverses course and takes things down to
zero, you don't want an economythat was what's the economy where that's necessary
good not a good one. Sodo not root for dress stuff. Yeah
that is that is that what itwould take for the FED to do.
That is is an unbelievable drop instock. We were having a lunch the
(29:26):
Fed a year uh prediction where thingswill remember that was at the start of
last year and uh and they werewrong then. And I think that they're
at the tail end of this orthey're either close to done or one more
away from being done. I feellike they've gotten it a little bit wrong.
And the only reason to cut wouldbe necessary is because you might get
some deflationary numbers six to nine monthsfrom now, and that'd be the only
(29:48):
reason. It wouldn't be because theyneed to cut to stimulate the economy.
To cut because they went too far, and inflation is one I remember they
thought the overall growth of the economylive here Leo. Yeah, they missed
it a little. Yeah. Ithink they were a little bit just slow
to do anything and didn't realize howfar inflation was gonna go, and they
(30:08):
didn't think it was going to benecessary right away. They ended up going
a lot sooner. They ended upgoing a lot harder, and that was
necessary. But they're gonna lose credibilityif they go too far and have to
retreat before. Well, I've beenI've been a h everyone who said soft
landing is not possible because there's notmuch precedent, doesn't know any history.
(30:30):
If they stopped right here, wealready got the soft landing. I mean,
the stock market is higher than thefirst time they cut rates in April,
so you already got your soft landing. There's no recession, and the
stock market's been fine. A littledip in the middle of it, but
you know, you can look outa year and it wasn't that bad ran
when they've increased rates. Yes,So when we get back to the break,
we'll shift gears a little bit,Brad, And there's a very scary
(30:53):
sixty minutes. Over the weekend,we had a few people ask us about
it because we've talked about uh Aiand how we do think it's going to
change a lot of things in thisworld. It's already around, we're already
using it. It's not new,it's not new, it's just gotten better.
But Scott Pelley on sixty minutes dida little bit of fearmongering, So
we're going to dispel some of that. You're listening to money since Kevin Brad
(31:15):
and Dennis Kurston will be right backand welcome back to the show. You're
listening to the advisors of Kurston WealthManagement as we start to get into the
scary part of the show. Wehad a sixty minutes episode that had quite
a few clients asked us about inthe last week or so. So I
have to play my want you wantto do the whole segment that way because
(31:38):
that's the way people are talking.Well, that's the way Scott Pelley,
who was doing the segment, wantedyou to believe this was gonna be This
is so scary, and when I'mwatching it, I actually had I watched
part of it and then went backbecause his reactions were so over the top
of Mike. I got to writedown these quotes of what he's saying,
because it's almost like he hasn't seenthe Internet, or doesn't have an Alexa
in his house, or didn't hasnever used SyRI on his phone. Because
(32:01):
when they start the segment, he'snarrating at what they're doing, and all
they're doing it is on a computerand it's the Google people. They're using
the Google version of AI. Andhe said, we asked their version is
called Baird Bard. I think it'scalled Bard. We asked Bard for the
most inspirational speeches in human history.It only took three seconds and it came
(32:23):
up with a list and he looksat it and he goes, I'm confounded.
I'm absolutely confounded. Then we askedit to finish this short story and
there's a famous Ernest Hemingway six wordshort story is a bet between friends.
And he said, we asked itto finish this story, and in five
(32:44):
seconds, it did it. Andhe's looking at the camera and he's going,
oh my god, holy cow.And to me, it would be
something that you could ask Alexa todo and it would do it. Then
he says, we asked it fortwenty five words to summarize the New Testament,
and in four seconds we had ananswer, and he's looking at the
(33:04):
camera shaking his head. Then hesaid, and then we asked it to
translating in Latin, and it didin three seconds. I mean, that's
the Internet. We don't eat AIfor that. If he's amazed by that.
You can have Google Translate. Youcan go to another country and have
Google Translate and hold it up toinstantly and it'll instantly translate it right right
on your phone so you can readit or whether it's a person talking to
(33:25):
you, or whether or not youwant your phone to talk to a person.
Yes, And so he keeps goingand asking it to do things,
and he's just one time with tearsin his eyes. He said, I
am rarely speechless, tears in hiseyes and just looking at the camera saying,
how is this possible? It's justthe Internet? In my mind,
I'm looking at it, like,how have we not done this already?
(33:45):
We've had the Internet since the latenineties. This seems like something that has
probably been being worked on for twentyyears and they're just now perfecting it and
they're just now rolling it out.But this is not, by any means
what we're going to get well,and we can hear amazed by that in
the next five years, stuff thatyou can't even fathom will come from this
well, And I don't care.Why is everyone always so scared of advancements,
(34:09):
right? I mean, this isa long time coming. I mean
they didn't just invent Ai out ofthe blue. But then everyone always goes
back to their sci fi movies likeThe Terminator and The Matrix and they get
all scared. But this has beena long time coming. But if you
think about anything, we do today. If you showed that to a person
from one hundred years ago, wouldit scare them? Of course? Yeah?
(34:32):
What if you showed someone a commercialairliner from eighteen twenty? Yeah,
But I would say, though,and this is the this is the point
of what we were, what we'rewatching on sixty minutes. This is by
no means ahead of its time.And one of the questions he asked was,
well, this replace jobs? Well, I hope so, because we
(34:52):
have a job shortage right now.And if anyone is saying this is going
to replace good jobs and they're gonnafight it, it is miss guided because
it's going to replace a job thatcould be replaced it. It's going to
replace bad jobs to replace bad jobs. It reminds me of a story.
You guys, remember the story fromtwenty seventeen. Labor union mad at job
stealing goats from Western Michigan University.Goats eat poison ivy, so they hired
(35:15):
some goats to clear the poison ivyat Western Michigan and they got sued.
Western Michigan last year use goats toclear poison ivy Since apparently unaffected by the
toxic oil and the plants, theAmerican Federation of State, County and Municipal
Employees union filed a grievance complain againstthe university for hiring cheap labor to do
the jobs that their union workers aredoing. Goats are cheap labor. Yeah.
(35:39):
The university says the goats were usedonly for small jobs and humans will
still be doing jobs like cutting grassas their first as our first choice.
A little bit more here, butthen at the bottom of the article it
says the goats have yet to commentpublicly. If your job can get replaced
by a goat or AI, yougotta be ready for that. You the
mirror. Wait a minute, thatthere once again. We're not replacing good
(36:04):
jobs, replacing bad jobs. Okay, we're placing pedious jobs. We're replacing
things that you know, said hisfavorite daddy, anonymous Joseph Humpeter. Uh
that said creative destruction. Yes,okay, you're eliminating things that are not
pronounce You're hiring. You have morejobs that are necessary for that particular technology.
(36:25):
There will be a big chunk oftechnology that currently is being outsourced to
a foreign country that will be replacedby internal AI. And that's a good
thing. And everybody complains about allthat outsourcing that will be replaced by a
are you. Are you going tobe the person that invests and gets on
the train that is going to moveforward whether you like it or not,
(36:46):
or you're going to be the equivalentof the person who sees a new technology
from five hundred years ago and says, that's witchcraft. I can't you know.
Denny's dad was referencing a show thathe watches where somebody travels through time
and if they had gone back intime with that new technology, they probably
would have strung them up right.They would have said, that's that's witchcraft.
(37:07):
You can't do that. And thenwhen this person went from the seventeen
hundreds to the future, same thing, he was like, Scott Pelly,
Yeah, oh my goodness, whatis this? What is that automobile?
What is this? Is not tome? We're going to get to the
point where you're going to see somethingYou're like, Wow, I never even
dreamed that we could do that,And that's interesting. You could do it
with AI. We're not there yet. I thought of two things to me
(37:29):
that seem way of that other time, even in retrospect in nineteen sixty nine,
when we're landing on the moon withthe technology they had now, it's
a that is so far ahead ofits time. They can barely land on
the moon now, and that theywere doing in nineteen sixty nine. And
when I'm looking at what computers andtechnology are doing right now, did they
(37:49):
I think that if you look backand say in nineteen eighty one, when
you would keep getting on an Atariand play the computer, to me,
that's more ahead of its time thanwhat AI is doing right now. AI
still is just getting developed. It'sjust now starting. This is not to
me the Alexa in your house answeringyour questions is more advanced than the pound
(38:12):
for pound or year for year forwhat this AI is. I'm on a
plane with Neil Armstrong, I askedhim. He's like, yes, he
said it happened. Okay, good, Yes, that was a plane the
minute, an emergency landing by theway by him. No, sure he
could have tell that story. Sure. Yeah, we k off from LA
(38:32):
Airport to Hawaii. I think thisis year early eighties. Okay, yeah,
I knew who he was. I'mfrom Ohio, you know. Was
just a normal eye on the planeand we had to burn some birds and
lost an engine and turned around andlanded. So, well, you stay
on this plane and we'll see infact it. Or there's another flight leaving
(38:54):
in forty five minutes from eight,so and so if you want to end
on, there's a few seas left. And I literally ran palt Neil arm
I then I knocked him over tohit ahead of him in line, but
I didn't. But if Neil wasgetting off the plane, that was your
clue that you was ending off theplane. I was ending off the plane.
Yeah, I mean, given therisk that he took to go to
(39:16):
the moon, if he yeah,so um yeah, it's just amazing to
me. People, you're the Internetis a bad place from the standpoint of
there's so much more of If youwant to find something awful and scary,
it's gonna feed you awful and scary. And being being afraid of a eye
(39:36):
is no different than than anything else. If you want to If you want
awful, want confirmation bias on AI, you can find it. And the
same with the markets. You wantto find a story that you should be
out, you can find plenty.I find a story you should stay in
and be more aggressive, you canfind it. I'll close with uh,
you know more a politicized example ofthis. I was just visiting my brother
in law in Portland, Oregon,and um, you know, Foxes NonStop.
(40:00):
Portland's on fire. It's the mosthorrible place in the world. Well,
it's just terrible, terrible. AndI was talking to my brother in
law and he showed me that theseveral blocks where you know, you don't
want to be. But he's like, these blocks have always been bad.
Yeah, since the beginning of Portland. And as I was driving to the
airport on the way home, Idid drive by some of those areas.
(40:21):
And by the way, when you'rein Portland, it's one of the most
beautiful places in the country that youwill ever see. So people say it's
awful, it's on fire. It'sthe most ridiculous thing ever. That is
propaganda. Okay, there's a coupleof spots you shouldn't be in any other
city. You don't think there's nota couple of spots you don't want to
be in in Detroit or Cleveland.Okay, I'm gonna tell you. You
(40:43):
don't think there's a couple of spotsin some of these cities that were right
next to because when I drove tothe airport and drove through some of these.
If you'd have told me that itwas Detroit or Cleveland or Chicago or
anywhere else, I would not haveknown the difference. And then everything around
around Portland is beautiful with green spacesand every thing else they have. So
he said to me, it's like, am I happy about it? That
(41:05):
it may be escalated atle bit ofcourse that because he works downtown. He's
like, but to portray it theway that they portrayed it, and to
not look at every city in Americaand say that there's an issue because like,
oh, it's only that city.Oh it's only that city. Nonsense.
Yeah, okay, should we dobetter? Should we do better in
every city? Of course? Andso the AI, whether someone's looking to
(41:25):
be scared about the end of theworld with that, or where there's somebody's
looking to be angry about what's goingon in liberal cities, the Internet will
give it to you, and it'sonly amped up. And that may be
is the one bad thing, oneof a couple bad things that has come
from the Internet is that. Brad. But take our last pause. You're
listening to money sense. Kevin Bradand Dennis Kurston will be right back and
welcome back to the show. You'relistening to the advisors of Kurston Wealth Manager
(41:50):
Group, Kevin Kurston, Brad Kurstonand Dennis Kurston. Before we end the
show, as a reminder, weare professional financial advisors and our offices are
in Perrysburg. If you want togive us a call throughout throughout the week
to set up a consultation, reviewyour own financial plan, get a second
opinion, or start from scratch andget going. Give us a call for
one nine eight seven two zero zerosixty seven or check us out online at
Kirstenwealth dot com. Want to endthe show with a little comedy here,
(42:14):
guys, and also a little political. I find what's going on with our
president wandering around the stage and ourvice president fumbling over her words, And
I thought, maybe you could goto Hollywood, Brad, and you could
present a script for a show whereyou had a bumbling, foolish president and
a bumbling foolish vice president. Willthat work well? It already has.
(42:37):
Oh, it won a lot ofawards. It was veep, it was,
it was it was. It waspure satire and comedy and you watched
it back then saying well, thiscould never happen. And you think to
yourself when you're watching the show Veep, which is on HBO, which the
hilarious show by the way, whereyou have this bumbling, foolish vice president.
So here's a little side by side. Now you might recognize Kamala Harris's
(43:00):
voice, but the voice the othervoice is satire. It's comedy. And
you tell me, Denny with theother voice Joe Louis Dreyfuss, who was
a vice president on the show VIEP. Tell me if you could tell the
difference between there's two One vice presidentis satire, one is real. Tell
me if you could tell the differenceshave many meanings, and sometimes instead of
conveying our meaning, they can suggestother meanings. When we talk about the
(43:22):
children of the community, there area children of the community. Well,
we are the United States of Americabecause we are united, and we are
states of a significance of the passageof time, right, the significance of
the passage of time. So whenyou think about it, there is a
great significance to the passage of time. Whatever we have in store cannot be
(43:50):
known. The past was once thefuture. The future is, I should
say unknown. We got to takethe stuff seriously as seriously as you are,
because you have been forced to haveto take it seriously. Obesity is
a serious disease and it needs tobe taken seriously. Certain issues are just
settled. No, that's right,and that's why I do believe that we
are living sadly in real unsettled times. So so you're listening to that if
(44:22):
you didn't know, I mean itwas back and forth, back and forth.
Kabbala has a very distinct voice,but kind of crazy that that is
the world we're living. We're livingin veep times. Yes, word salad
is the word. Well, Idon't care who either side I want.
When people ask me who do youwant to run? I want somebody that
is not a joke, and Ifeel like both sides are on the verge
(44:43):
of doing that. You know what'sthe most amazing skill her meat away.
You know, the most amazing skillJoe Biden has. This is the most
amazing skill I've ever seen in mylife. When he exits a podium,
he has one hundred percent wrong onthe direction he's supposed to exit. You
would think, just by dumb luck, he'd get it fifty fifty. He
turns the wrong direction and walks thewrong way one hundred percent of the time.
(45:06):
I've never seen anything like another.There's another quote about him being wrong
one hundred percent of the time fromUh, the former president Obama and his
former defense Clary with Bill with hisname mill Uh. I can't think of
his name anyhow, He said,kill mine has been wrong on every form
policy declusion one hundred percent of thetime his whole life. I mean,
(45:28):
it's Robert thinking about rerunning him.It's amazing, it is amazing. It'll
be fascinating to see how how thatall plays out. But I'm telling you
what, and this obviously is anopinion, but as bad as he is,
he beats Trump. So but thisyear more than ever, then next
year more than ever, you're gonnabe it's a vote for Kamala Harris.
(45:50):
If you're voting for Biden, there'sso can you imagine that that's probably the
best, the best UH campaign rightthere? Voever Biden is a vote for
Harris. Yeah, so we'll see. She's going to continue to fumble over
her words. Should have been betteroff not being vice president because I think
everybody thought a lot more of herwhen when she was sort of in the
in the background in the Senate.The more she talks, the more everyone's
(46:13):
like, what is what is happeninghere? And so it will it will
continue to be satire. I don'tthink that's going to change. And when
we get into political season next year, I'm sure we'll hear even more of
it. Thanks for listening, everybody. We'll talk to you next week.
You've been listening to Money since,brought to you each week by Kristen Wealth
(46:34):
Management Group. To contact Dennis Brattor Kevin professionally called four one nine eight
seven two zero zero six seven oreight hundred eight seven five seventeen eighty six.
Their email address is Kristen Wealth atLPO dot com and their website is
Kristen Wealth dot com. Opinions voicedin this show or for general information only,
and are not intended to provide specificadvice or recommendations for any individual.
(46:58):
To determine which invests may be appropriatefor you, consult with your financial advisor
prior to investing. Securities are offeredthrough LPL Financial Member Finrep SIPC
Good morning, and welcome to MoneySense. You're listening to the advisors of
Kursten Wealth Manager Group, Kevin Kursten, Brad Kurston and Dennis Kurstin. Happy
to be with you this morning aswe are recording this show on a CPI
day, So very good information fromfrom the CPI report that we'll go through
here today as CPI hits its lowestlevels, well lowest levels, and what
(00:24):
you gotta go home more than yougotta go back all the way till probably
October of twenty one. I wasjust saying today at lunch the last CPI
report before that, the last CPIreport that the Fed passed on was the
February going into March one where theCPI was seven point five and they did
not raise after that. They startedraising in April, so we're past a
(00:45):
year of them raising and in Aprilthe CPI I've got right here in front
of me. Well, no,I've got one year back. We were
twelve straight months of down, Okay, June of last year was nine point
one. Every single month after thatwas down. And the anticipation was that
this was going to come in asa monthly number of point four and an
annual number of three point two two. That was they now cast Cleveland inflation
(01:07):
prediction as of a day ago,and this morning it comes the monthly number
comes in at point two, andthe annualized number they're posting as three,
the true number was actually two pointnine seven. So actually on the annual
or below three, and so thatsounds better than three. I think two
point nine seven sounds better than three. We're talking about inflation now, if
we were talking about your annual yourannual return of your bonds, I'd say
(01:29):
three, yeah, yeah, nottwo point ninety seven. But the surprising
thing to me and all this isnot that things have come down. It's
really two things. We have hadthis constant complaint, if you will,
from everybody looking at CPI and sayyeah, but and the yeah butt to
me has been let me know whenmy food prices are actually down. Let
me know when I'm actually paying lessfor things, not when i'm when I'm
(01:51):
the increases are going down. That'swhat we're getting, especially on food right
now. If you take a lookjust at the egg prices, eggs.
Eggs have been the one that everybodywants to talk about the average egg price
in the United States right now istwo twenty two with a peak of four
eighty two, So two eighty twogone down again for twelve straight months.
(02:12):
We have had we had a periodof time well really from June of twenty
one all the way through two monthsago where they were higher, so we
are actually lower. We had aperiod of time in two thousand and fifteen
and sixteen were for an entire yearthey were higher, and we had a
period of time briefly in two thousandand seven where they were higher. So
we actually do have lower prices onthings that people complaining about. It's not
(02:36):
just that the increase has slowed down. And take a look at something like
you can you can pull up anything, but every food price is actually lower
over the last year, So it'snot just that the increase is there.
Take year bacon and eggs price,bacon and eggs canbine peaked at eleven sixty
three pound of bacon and a dozeneggs. We're a full three dollars more
than that, three dollars and twentycents lower than that. And again there
(03:00):
were periods of time where we werespent an entire year higher in sixteen and
really we've spent we spent almost twoyears on both of those combined being higher,
so truly lower, not just alower increase, and so I think
people will be somewhat surprised over thenext month or two when they go and
they're actually paying less than they werea year ago, and significantly so.
(03:23):
So I think those are all goodthings for the market. But the other
surprising thing to me is that ourexpectation of what the Fed's going to do
in two weeks has not changed.Here you are truly below three on an
annual basis, and you're still factoringin an eighty five percent chance that the
Fed's going to raise another time.I don't see why they would. Well,
no, obviously, you're two percenthigher than the FED funds rate is
(03:46):
two percent higher than inflation. Nowwe all know the inflation numbers are going
to trickle higher by the end ofthe year. The question is by how
much do they trickle to the lowfours? Do they trickle to the high
fours? That's the range that we'rethat we're looking at at even so they're
still above that. So I don'treally see the need other than the fact
that they've already said they're gonna doit, so they don't want to back
(04:08):
track, and they've gone with marketexpectation every single time that they've raised.
So we're going fifteen months here ofthem doing the market expectation, and so
at some point they have to backoff of that if the markets, if
they don't need it. I don'tknow why they would do it. Here
we are, you're talking about whereit's gonna bounce to. I don't think
we're gonna even bounce over four.And when you look at what the last
(04:29):
month, three month and twelve monthhas been. The twelve month, like
I mentioned, two point nine seven, the three month average is two point
seven. What's the sixth month?And well, I don't I can,
I can pull it up pretty quickly. But the one month, you know,
we talked about it being point two, it was actually point one eight.
So the only the one month onepoint point one eight annualized is pretty
(04:49):
dang low. That's in the lowtwos. The three month is two point
seven. So we're on a paceof write what the Fed wants and well
you'll see about back over four bythe end of the year and then straight
back down. Now, why doyou say that because of the monthly number
you're dropping off. So the nextmonth, you're dropping off a point zero
(05:10):
zero, Okay, so anything higherthan point zero zero next month, you're
going up the month after that.So calling eleven months ago the monthly number
was point one, So anything higherthan point one and you're going up a
little bit more. But how muchIf we come in at point three,
the next two months, you're talkingabout going up point three and then point
two, So a half a percenton three that takes you to three point
(05:32):
five, and then you're going backdown because you have a series of point
four. It's like you're hitting Yeah, you're the big baseball guy, Denny.
It's like for the first three monthsof the season, you're hitting four
hundred, right, Yeah. Theonly way to keep him out right,
Yeah, Like, the only wayto keep hitting four hundred if you replace
a four hundred, if you goone for three, If you go one
(05:54):
for three, great, But you'rebatting average came down. Your batting average
came down, right, But you'reyou're month that's part of twelve months,
right. No, I'm just sayingwhat you're replacing, and there's a little
bit of compounding, so it doesgo up a little bit more, but
you get to the end of theyear. December of last year was point
seven five unless we have a hugespike, all right, that that that
(06:15):
report that gets reported in January isgoing to be significantly lower, and that'll
be the point where we're in thetwo is and never going back up.
I mean diesel fuel, yeah,I mean that's another one that since June
of last year we've gone straight down. Now. Now, diesel was a
little bit more stubborn. We werewe were above I think we were above
(06:36):
five fifty for most of last yearand the low three now yeah, So
that goes to shipping costs, thatgoes to food costs, that goes to
everything that brings things to market,and so that is very deflationary. Right,
Well, we have a stubborn numberin there, and it's going to
continue to be stubborn because this isnot an easy fix. Uh. When
(06:57):
you look at the only reason thatwe've seen any sort of increase, and
it's the cost of shelter. Thecost of shelter is still higher. You
know, we've seen an increase indevelopment in multi family homes in particular,
but once of development starts, peopledon't it takes a while. So when
you look at it, this willhelp lessen the pressure on rents in a
(07:20):
year, not right away, soyou know, it does take some time
for these things to flow through.I saw a chart, and you know
it's it's not complicated. Everyone's likethe only way for prices to come back
down is for rates to come backdown. That is wrong, That is
against econ one on one. Igot this huge chart here that you guys
(07:40):
are looking at from Payton and Paytonand Regal, and it's pretty simple.
Okay, if you look at thelast thirty years and you look at the
upper left, more houses, lowerprices, less houses, So I'm sorry,
upper left ear is is the numberof how less houses, higher prices?
(08:01):
So where what countries do you seethe highest prices? Czech Republic,
Ireland, Iceland, New Zealand.Where do you see the lowest prices?
Well probably maybe some places you wouldn'twant to live, but Brazil, Romania,
France, Belgium, Finland, inItaly, United States is sort of
right in the middle. But ifwhat we build more, if we build
(08:22):
more, prices will come down.Yeah, okay, that's what this chart
tells you. Yea, more houses, lower prices. There's people out there
right now that are spinning a tailto say, well, people are stuck
in their houses and the only wayprices are going to come down is to
get rates back down again. Thatis nonsense. The only way prices are
going to come back down is ifwe have more houses, you lower rates
(08:43):
so that there's more supply on themarket. That doesn't fix the problem that
we have a shortage of houses basedon our population. That there's a shortage
of a lot of things. Okay, housing is one of them, and
a lot of this stands from COVIDright we went, We went a year
without building because you couldn't find anybodyto do it, and you couldn't get
(09:05):
supply, and lumber prices are throughthe roof. It takes a long time
to get through that. And theemployment picture is that the whole employment picture.
Once you laid everybody off and sendeverybody home, it's slow to get
everybody back and then people can pickand choose. And I think over the
next five to ten years the entireemployment market will we will have an early
(09:26):
adoption of all the AI technologies andit's already really started, and that will
fix the employment shortage that we haveand So we're gonna have a little discussion
about what was on sixty minutes ina later segment. But I think there's
a lot of this fear out therewith AI that is completely misguided. It
will fix a lot of the problemsand a lot of the things that will
(09:48):
be happening with companies will all bea benefit to the individual and a benefit
to the company's profit margins. Andthat's the big story. So you know,
I think that lowering rates would probablyfix the the price issue in the
CPI quickly, but it doesn't solvethe problem long term. Okay, let's
(10:09):
solve the problem long term build.And by the way, if we have
a boom in this country of buildingthat would that would be a good thing
for the overall economy too. Buthow about things like uh affordableness of long
term care and those facilities. Idon't know anybody that says, well,
I got a great deal when Iput my mother in a long term care
(10:30):
facility. You know that means there'snot enough of them. Go build more.
And that's what capitalism and the greedof the investor will do, is
you'll go build another one because ofhow much you can get for those rents.
That's what fix it. What thegovernment would want to do is say
we need some price fixes on thishousing for the elderly. No we don't.
We just need to build more.Right, you know these numbers.
(10:52):
I was looking at the the theunderlying CPI numbers that are in there,
and you mentioned gas and diesel inparticular. Actually, it's been pretty um,
pretty stable. You know, thedollars per gallon. I mean November
is three sixty nine, today's threefifty seven, and the range since November
is the lowest is three twenty fourand the highest is three sixty nine.
(11:16):
That's pretty stable anecdotally. I thinkyou see that everywhere you go, even
if you're traveling. It's pretty prettystable from state to state even um.
But yeah, diesel is the oneto look at these rents. Look at
these year on year rent numbers consistentlyfrom November seven point nine, eight point
four, eight point six, eightpoint eight, eight point eight, eight
point eight, eight point seven eightnumber year on year rent increases. Yeah,
(11:39):
yeah, so no drops there.It's it's the it's the most stubborn
of those apartments going up everywhere.Well, guess what, there's still not
enough because when you know when itwill be enough, when the inflation comes
down. Yeah, that's that's thenumber that it's enough. So I'm not
talking about area, no. Youknow, we were in North Carolina and
(12:00):
in that whole area, every everythingyou drive through it apartments everywhere. Ye.
So back to the markets. Themarkets are responding, you know,
positively. The SP five hundred stillup fifteen point eight seven percent on the
year. You know, it's stillvery narrow. I mean you have all
the growth sectors up a whole lotmore NASDAC, you know, lead Technology
(12:20):
index, Communication Services, consumer discretionary, all growth indexes. Value not doing
as well. Large value only upfour point six eight on the year.
So that's pointing out to you.You have four negative sectors and one other
one that's pretty much flat out ofthirteen is it thirteen? I thought we
were only eleven sectors, but Ithought there was I thought we experianded this
so well. We put one on, which was communication services two years ago.
(12:43):
It's four negative even out of eleven, and only three beating. So
you have three sectors out of elevenbeating, eight lagging and pretty sharply so
well, and you look at smallsmall caps only up eight point four,
midcaps up nine point six. SoI think there's some catch up to be
had in the second half of theyear for those areas Una met camp.
(13:05):
You're lumping the whole thing eth andvalue right right, the value I'm pone
to that where you're finding a lotof remat banks, sure, but midcamp
in general. If you look atthe index industrials in the number one sector,
tech is about number four or fivein that index. So just by
going smaller to mid and small,if that was the adjustment you were going
to make for the back half,you're reducing those areas that have have moved
(13:28):
the most in technical and international wasleading the way early in the year has
cooled off a little bit as well. Small camp relative to large camps really
the widest difference in a long longtime, isn't that right? Yeah?
Not only in the last call itthree years, but if you look at
what's furthest away from all time high. Yeah, if you want to make
(13:48):
that adjustment to say everything will takeits turn, and being in a leader
the Russell twenty twenty seven percent awayfrom its all time high, it's the
furthest of all the major indussease youknow, one knock on this market this
year with the rally has been howexpensive the SMP five hundred has gotten at
nineteen times earnings. But and I'mnot saying valuations should be the only metrics
someone uses to determine what to buy. But if you are concerned about valuation,
(14:11):
the SMP five hundred is expensive slightly. But here's the good news.
It really is the only index inthe world that is trading above its long
term price to earnings ratio. Soyou have twelve thousand stocks in the world,
three thousand, seven hundred stocks theUnited States, three thousand, two
(14:33):
hundred of them are all trading lessthan their long term price to earnings ratio,
and the other eight thousand around theworld are also trading less. You're
looking at small CATB index trading ateleven or twelve times earnings, the International
EFA Index trading at ten times earnings. Yeah, okay, emerging markets single
digits. Well, you're you're sayingthe whole SMP five hundred, but you
(14:54):
probably could pull out fifty names andsay the other the other four four nine
four, well, four hundred andfifty are probably also not under overvalued.
So if you've missed out on therally. There's a lot of places to
go. I'm seven to ten stocksand the resting of them. Yeah,
what sixteen right now? Yep,fifteen eight seven Maybe not hound in the
(15:18):
name, but uh, the equalwent five hundred I think eight and a
half or somethime like. Yeah,a much much different story. So to
say that the rally's done and there'sit will need to broaden out. It
has to broaden out for it tokeep going. And that's that's what we're
looking for in the second half yearwe get back from the break. I
want to go over a quick discussionI had with a client today Brad about
risk and and especially how risk haschanged and risk parameters has changed with the
(15:46):
rise in interest rates, with thewhole treasury market going up based on the
Fed Fund FED increasing rates. You'relistening to money Sense, Kevin, Brad
and Dennis. Kirsten will be rightback and welcome back here listening to the
advices of Kristen Wealth Manager Group.Brad, Dennis and Kevin here with you
this morning, talking about the markets, talking about CPI and kind of a
constant, constant discussion about investors maybewho were underweighted the market throughout the first
(16:11):
half of this year and what todo. But there's really kind of two
investors in this market, ones thatmissed out, and we're constantly talking about
that, right people who are underweightedstocks are bailed a little bit, and
what to do. And we're mentioningthat in the last segment that there's all
these areas of the market that areundervalued. But then there's the other side
of the market, ones that eitherstuck with it or got more aggressive,
(16:33):
bought a little bit more of thegrowth related last year and are doing very
well. And I think we needto talk about that a little bit too,
because if you turn on the TV, you're gonna find probably not a
lot of people agreeing with you andthat you should be staying in. So
there's kind of a two sides ofit, you know, the the you
(16:53):
can't find anybody agreeing with you,and yet things are working and you don't
want to be too greedy, andso you kind of have to look at
the expected returns over periods of timeand say, what are my alternatives now?
And we have a lot of them. So before we get into that
discussion on the way, there's peoplethan haven't haven't been in and they want
(17:14):
up m o m o fomo.Fear of missing out, fear of missing
out. Well, there's and it'sthe I think people when they're getting out
forget what it feels like to beout and watch a market go straight up.
And people who are in right nowthey feel like the market's going up.
If you're out, you feel likeit's going straight up, and there
(17:36):
will never find a time to getback in. I saw a definition here
that it kind of encompasses exactly themarket that we're seeing right now. Because
when you turn on the TV,if if, if you're one of those
that are listening and you're out orin, you'll find this and it's uh.
Jason's Wiggs book, Devil's Financial Dictionary, had a very simple definition here
of irrational and the definition is aword used to describe any investor other than
(18:00):
yourself irrational. When you turn onthe TV and somebody says the market's going
up, the people listening that aren'tin say that's that's that's overvalued. It
can't keep going up. And thepeople that say, well, the market
has to correct, the people whoare in saying, well, why would
it keeps going up and the peoplewho are out saying, oh that makes
sense, yeah, because I'm waitingfor it because you've been telling me it's
(18:21):
going to correct. But even thosethat are pounding the table now saying it
has to correct have been saying itfor the last twenty five percent. So
even if they're right, can weget a little correction they've been wrong for
you're not even right. So wehave to kind of talk about now that
rates are up where they are,or do you have all these others areas
of the market that could be participating. It's okay to if you're overweight areas
(18:45):
now that have you got a littlebit more aggressive and went into growth,
But now that it's run up somuch, rebalancing has to happen over the
next three to four months. It'swhat we're going to be doing to our
models, shrimming back to bring inline and add back to some things like
small caps that haven't participated, likesome of the value areas that haven't participated.
(19:06):
Because there will be fits and startsof this market. We we'll have
new leadership for a while and stufflike the technology names might go sideways for
a period of time and it smoothsthe road out for your whole portfolio,
and even adding back to some ofthe fixed income areas now that they're paying
close to five percent, you're notgiving up that much. And I think
that's what we need to be thinkingabout and talking about for the next couple
(19:27):
of months. Then throw something outthere and comparing investing with someone's health,
and there's a bullet point here thatbetween knowing what to do and actually hitting
people to do it, it's enormous. And in this in this book,
(19:48):
this author asked the doctor, what'sthe hardest part of your job? It
wasn't stress or responsibility, hitting mypatience to do what I asked them them
even when they know they should doit. You should talk about that all
time, Kevin. You know you'resupposed to eat your vegetables, but well,
and then went on to say,you know you you hit this lamp
down. You're seeing the specialist,your mental sen quick smoke, you exercise,
(20:11):
and they come back a month laterand they haven't done any of it,
okay, and they want another pilland feel better for a quick fix.
There are similarities in investing there.Well, yes, you could write
down the rules and everybody would nodtheir head, yes, that these are
the rules we should follow. Buthardly, if especially if left on their
own, hardly anybody does it.There's a little too much greed in all
(20:33):
and there's no easing way, andthere's no quick effects to anything, and
and it's ever going to necessarily feelgood. Danny, I'm some of the
best investment decisions that we've ever providedto people or done ourselves have felt horrible
in the moment. And that's notalways just buying at the bottom. That's
selling at the top, and saywell, can you do that? Can
you sell at the top? Theanswers no, can you buy at the
(20:55):
bottom? No, Okay, you'regoing to be a week early or a
month early when you buy, oryou or you sell. There's no possible
way to sell at the top,buy at the bottom, forget about it.
So you always have to think ofthese things in stages. So now
you're sitting on your portfolio. It'srallied since last October. Okay, so
you're more in equities. Whether youbought at the bottom, which you should
(21:17):
have done, or close to it, or you did nothing and you just
have more equities because of rebalancing,or maybe you took your withdrawals from your
bonds, which you should have beendoing, or whatever it might be.
You have more in stocks today,but you say, well, it's going
well, well, so if Ichange, I will somehow miss out right.
And it's Stop thinking of it asall or nothing. Stop thinking of
(21:38):
it as an all or nothing proposition. You are doing this in degrees and
in stages. If you get fifteenpercent out of the market and into treasuries,
guess what the market goes up,You're still gonna go up. Relax,
Okay. But another way of lookingat it, too, with where
yields are, is how much exposureto the market you had to have to
(21:59):
get a certain return. So Ithought this was kind of an interesting exercise.
I went because I think everybody whenyou eventually go back to either your
baseline level of risk and stocks tobonds, or you're going to go even
more conservative, it should never bedone all at once. Market's up twenty
six percent from October, so doa little bit now, Why well,
that's twenty six percent nine months.That's an annualized forty plus. Okay,
(22:23):
think of it like this, whenwhen the SMP was at thirty five fifty
seven brand was it was it absurdin your mind to think of the SMP
nine months later to be at fortyfour. It is, of course not
right, not not to me,okay, okay, And I know you're
always pretty bullish. But that samereturn would take the SMP five hundred to
(22:45):
five thousand, six hundred nine monthsin the next nine months, Well,
that seems logically. That seems muchmore irrational than thirty five hundred forty four
hundred. It just does. Sothe point is you have to reduce your
risk because the easy I won't sayeasy money, the easier money has been
made. But another way of lookingat it too, And let's think about
(23:07):
a five to seven year outlook.Okay, Denny, five to seven year
outlook probably never really is going tochange for stocks. Sometimes that extremes.
You might be a little higher,a little lower. Let's assume a baseline
level five to seven year outlook onUM stocks right now. But would it
mean always be roughly the same?Right? Yeah, I mean we're still
below what how far below are alltime high? Are we? Yeah?
(23:32):
Probably probably average? But even ifyou didn't even know where the current market
was, and I just asked you, what would you always say whatever the
long term average, right, eightor nine percent, let's call it nine
percent, Okay, so nine percent, that's always going to not really change
that much because you don't know wherethe market's gonna go. Okay. A
year ago, the one year treasurypaid point two yep. Okay. So
(23:56):
if you said, you, well, what's your goal? Okay, well
whatever, you even bonds basically payingyou nothing. Yeah, let's assume nothing
year a year ago. So ifmy goal was seven, my goal was
seven. Okay, seven divided bynine. I had to have seventy seven
percent seventy eight percent in stocks,and my goal was seven. Because the
(24:17):
bonds are not losing, but they'renot gonna make much. Say well,
what about now it would have changed? No, I mean that was your
that was your expectation because that's whereyou were. Bonds are what the yield
are is at the time. Okay, Now fast forward one year. I
want seven, I can get fivein a one year treasury. I can
get five to five in a oneyear treasury. In a one year treasury.
(24:38):
So if I allocate, say fiftyfifty stocks to bonds two sixty three
plus, you're there. You're you'realready there, it's five and nine.
So another way of looking at riskright now is I can get the same
return with twenty eight percent less inthe market. Yeah, I mean that's
(25:02):
wonderful. Yeah, that's that Ican get the same expected return with twenty
eight percent less in the market.So when you're making portfolio adjustments and everyone
has that fear of missing out thatDenny mentioned, stop thinking of it.
Because you have the fear of missingout, you also have the fear of
being in, which the fear ofmissing out is like out into the future.
(25:26):
Right, I'm gonna lose all thatmoney. The fear of being in
is like it's happening to me rightnow. Right. Don't forget about that
fear of being in and get greedyagain. And understand that if we stay
where we are right now with interestrates, you can still get the same
return that you would have gotten witha lot less risk. And that's the
that's the wonderful thing about normalized interestrates. I've said time and time again,
(25:48):
everyone got really greedy and happy abouttheir low mortgages. But I hate
to say it, for a lotof the people that we help that are
that are saving for retirement, that'sgreat we also help a lot of people
that are getting closer to retirement andretirement, what are you getting rid of
debt? Ye, low rates helppeople who want debt. You're retired,
you don't want debt. High ratesand they say, well, why should
(26:08):
I care? Well, because youcan't get a decent level of fixed income.
So basically what's happening in the lastfifteen years is that retirees are subsidizing
million dollar homes in California. Yeah, because because listen, if the rates
are low and retirees can't get adecent yield on their treasuries, they either
(26:30):
get less income. It's being subsidizedwith something. Yeah, so Silicon Valley
startups million dollar homes on the beach. Person in northwest Ohio pays the price.
So I don't mind that. Andyou can't call them high rates.
Can you call them high? They'renot high rates. I refinance and I
(26:52):
was thrilled. Yeah, it wasall relevant. But I mean a lot
of times this this this risk discussionis so buyinary, I'm in, I'm
out, I have all the risk, I have no risk. No,
that's not the way it works.You're reducing risk, but with yields as
high as they are, and treasuriesat the moment you can you can still
(27:14):
get almost the same return with lessrisk, and that's beautiful. A year,
a year and a half ago wehad we spent a lot of time
where reducing risk meant I'm basically pullingmyself out of everything, because when you're
getting point one or the expected returnof any bond was one percent, you're
basically out of everything, right becausethese dollars aren't going to do anything,
and all you're doing is pushing moneyto the sideline for future withdrawals, and
(27:36):
that's it. And so the levelthat you had to have there was pretty
low because so many idle dollars.Another point of bonds, you know,
you're starting rates mostly your return,but obviously the yields are higher and increase
up or down a little bit,and rates has less effect on the performance
of that bond, right right,right, A move from one to two
(27:59):
is a doubling, yeah, amove from four to five is twenty five
percent. Yeah, okay, soyou know that that that makes a huge
difference as well. A lot ofthat extremental point two five or a half
a percent. And that's why thelast five years for the sixty forty portfolio
has been terrible. It's not becauseof the sixty. The sixty did fine,
(28:21):
it's the forty did terrible. Soyou know, and that's why when
you look at the sixty forty portfolioin the seventies and eighties, the numbers
weren't really that bad because you hada ten percent yield. Yeah. Yeah,
So it's been much worse for thatblended balanced retiree, and that is
now changing. And then then thefinal thing people get a little bit nervous
(28:42):
about because there's this mentality that theFED raises rates, therefore stocks must do
bad, which really has not alwaysbeen true. People act like it's always
true. It's been true in thelast ten years. It was not true
in the last sixty years. Okay, And so we have to get out
of the mentality that we have togo back down to zero. And I
(29:02):
would argue right now, if theFED reverses course and takes things down to
zero, you don't want an economythat was what's the economy where that's necessary
good not a good one. Sodo not root for dress stuff. Yeah
that is that is that what itwould take for the FED to do.
That is is an unbelievable drop instock. We were having a lunch the
(29:26):
Fed a year uh prediction where thingswill remember that was at the start of
last year and uh and they werewrong then. And I think that they're
at the tail end of this orthey're either close to done or one more
away from being done. I feellike they've gotten it a little bit wrong.
And the only reason to cut wouldbe necessary is because you might get
some deflationary numbers six to nine monthsfrom now, and that'd be the only
(29:48):
reason. It wouldn't be because theyneed to cut to stimulate the economy.
To cut because they went too far, and inflation is one I remember they
thought the overall growth of the economylive here Leo. Yeah, they missed
it a little. Yeah. Ithink they were a little bit just slow
to do anything and didn't realize howfar inflation was gonna go, and they
(30:08):
didn't think it was going to benecessary right away. They ended up going
a lot sooner. They ended upgoing a lot harder, and that was
necessary. But they're gonna lose credibilityif they go too far and have to
retreat before. Well, I've beenI've been a h everyone who said soft
landing is not possible because there's notmuch precedent, doesn't know any history.
(30:30):
If they stopped right here, wealready got the soft landing. I mean,
the stock market is higher than thefirst time they cut rates in April,
so you already got your soft landing. There's no recession, and the
stock market's been fine. A littledip in the middle of it, but
you know, you can look outa year and it wasn't that bad ran
when they've increased rates. Yes,So when we get back to the break,
we'll shift gears a little bit,Brad, And there's a very scary
(30:53):
sixty minutes. Over the weekend,we had a few people ask us about
it because we've talked about uh Aiand how we do think it's going to
change a lot of things in thisworld. It's already around, we're already
using it. It's not new,it's not new, it's just gotten better.
But Scott Pelley on sixty minutes dida little bit of fearmongering, So
we're going to dispel some of that. You're listening to money since Kevin Brad
(31:15):
and Dennis Kurston will be right backand welcome back to the show. You're
listening to the advisors of Kurston WealthManagement as we start to get into the
scary part of the show. Wehad a sixty minutes episode that had quite
a few clients asked us about inthe last week or so. So I
have to play my want you wantto do the whole segment that way because
(31:38):
that's the way people are talking.Well, that's the way Scott Pelley,
who was doing the segment, wantedyou to believe this was gonna be This
is so scary, and when I'mwatching it, I actually had I watched
part of it and then went backbecause his reactions were so over the top
of Mike. I got to writedown these quotes of what he's saying,
because it's almost like he hasn't seenthe Internet, or doesn't have an Alexa
in his house, or didn't hasnever used SyRI on his phone. Because
(32:01):
when they start the segment, he'snarrating at what they're doing, and all
they're doing it is on a computerand it's the Google people. They're using
the Google version of AI. Andhe said, we asked their version is
called Baird Bard. I think it'scalled Bard. We asked Bard for the
most inspirational speeches in human history.It only took three seconds and it came
(32:23):
up with a list and he looksat it and he goes, I'm confounded.
I'm absolutely confounded. Then we askedit to finish this short story and
there's a famous Ernest Hemingway six wordshort story is a bet between friends.
And he said, we asked itto finish this story, and in five
(32:44):
seconds, it did it. Andhe's looking at the camera and he's going,
oh my god, holy cow.And to me, it would be
something that you could ask Alexa todo and it would do it. Then
he says, we asked it fortwenty five words to summarize the New Testament,
and in four seconds we had ananswer, and he's looking at the
(33:04):
camera shaking his head. Then hesaid, and then we asked it to
translating in Latin, and it didin three seconds. I mean, that's
the Internet. We don't eat AIfor that. If he's amazed by that.
You can have Google Translate. Youcan go to another country and have
Google Translate and hold it up toinstantly and it'll instantly translate it right right
on your phone so you can readit or whether it's a person talking to
(33:25):
you, or whether or not youwant your phone to talk to a person.
Yes, And so he keeps goingand asking it to do things,
and he's just one time with tearsin his eyes. He said, I
am rarely speechless, tears in hiseyes and just looking at the camera saying,
how is this possible? It's justthe Internet? In my mind,
I'm looking at it, like,how have we not done this already?
(33:45):
We've had the Internet since the latenineties. This seems like something that has
probably been being worked on for twentyyears and they're just now perfecting it and
they're just now rolling it out.But this is not, by any means
what we're going to get well,and we can hear amazed by that in
the next five years, stuff thatyou can't even fathom will come from this
well, And I don't care.Why is everyone always so scared of advancements,
(34:09):
right? I mean, this isa long time coming. I mean
they didn't just invent Ai out ofthe blue. But then everyone always goes
back to their sci fi movies likeThe Terminator and The Matrix and they get
all scared. But this has beena long time coming. But if you
think about anything, we do today. If you showed that to a person
from one hundred years ago, wouldit scare them? Of course? Yeah?
(34:32):
What if you showed someone a commercialairliner from eighteen twenty? Yeah,
But I would say, though,and this is the this is the point
of what we were, what we'rewatching on sixty minutes. This is by
no means ahead of its time.And one of the questions he asked was,
well, this replace jobs? Well, I hope so, because we
(34:52):
have a job shortage right now.And if anyone is saying this is going
to replace good jobs and they're gonnafight it, it is miss guided because
it's going to replace a job thatcould be replaced it. It's going to
replace bad jobs to replace bad jobs. It reminds me of a story.
You guys, remember the story fromtwenty seventeen. Labor union mad at job
stealing goats from Western Michigan University.Goats eat poison ivy, so they hired
(35:15):
some goats to clear the poison ivyat Western Michigan and they got sued.
Western Michigan last year use goats toclear poison ivy Since apparently unaffected by the
toxic oil and the plants, theAmerican Federation of State, County and Municipal
Employees union filed a grievance complain againstthe university for hiring cheap labor to do
the jobs that their union workers aredoing. Goats are cheap labor. Yeah.
(35:39):
The university says the goats were usedonly for small jobs and humans will
still be doing jobs like cutting grassas their first as our first choice.
A little bit more here, butthen at the bottom of the article it
says the goats have yet to commentpublicly. If your job can get replaced
by a goat or AI, yougotta be ready for that. You the
mirror. Wait a minute, thatthere once again. We're not replacing good
(36:04):
jobs, replacing bad jobs. Okay, we're placing pedious jobs. We're replacing
things that you know, said hisfavorite daddy, anonymous Joseph Humpeter. Uh
that said creative destruction. Yes,okay, you're eliminating things that are not
pronounce You're hiring. You have morejobs that are necessary for that particular technology.
(36:25):
There will be a big chunk oftechnology that currently is being outsourced to
a foreign country that will be replacedby internal AI. And that's a good
thing. And everybody complains about allthat outsourcing that will be replaced by a
are you. Are you going tobe the person that invests and gets on
the train that is going to moveforward whether you like it or not,
(36:46):
or you're going to be the equivalentof the person who sees a new technology
from five hundred years ago and says, that's witchcraft. I can't you know.
Denny's dad was referencing a show thathe watches where somebody travels through time
and if they had gone back intime with that new technology, they probably
would have strung them up right.They would have said, that's that's witchcraft.
(37:07):
You can't do that. And thenwhen this person went from the seventeen
hundreds to the future, same thing, he was like, Scott Pelly,
Yeah, oh my goodness, whatis this? What is that automobile?
What is this? Is not tome? We're going to get to the
point where you're going to see somethingYou're like, Wow, I never even
dreamed that we could do that,And that's interesting. You could do it
with AI. We're not there yet. I thought of two things to me
(37:29):
that seem way of that other time, even in retrospect in nineteen sixty nine,
when we're landing on the moon withthe technology they had now, it's
a that is so far ahead ofits time. They can barely land on
the moon now, and that theywere doing in nineteen sixty nine. And
when I'm looking at what computers andtechnology are doing right now, did they
(37:49):
I think that if you look backand say in nineteen eighty one, when
you would keep getting on an Atariand play the computer, to me,
that's more ahead of its time thanwhat AI is doing right now. AI
still is just getting developed. It'sjust now starting. This is not to
me the Alexa in your house answeringyour questions is more advanced than the pound
(38:12):
for pound or year for year forwhat this AI is. I'm on a
plane with Neil Armstrong, I askedhim. He's like, yes, he
said it happened. Okay, good, Yes, that was a plane the
minute, an emergency landing by theway by him. No, sure he
could have tell that story. Sure. Yeah, we k off from LA
(38:32):
Airport to Hawaii. I think thisis year early eighties. Okay, yeah,
I knew who he was. I'mfrom Ohio, you know. Was
just a normal eye on the planeand we had to burn some birds and
lost an engine and turned around andlanded. So, well, you stay
on this plane and we'll see infact it. Or there's another flight leaving
(38:54):
in forty five minutes from eight,so and so if you want to end
on, there's a few seas left. And I literally ran palt Neil arm
I then I knocked him over tohit ahead of him in line, but
I didn't. But if Neil wasgetting off the plane, that was your
clue that you was ending off theplane. I was ending off the plane.
Yeah, I mean, given therisk that he took to go to
(39:16):
the moon, if he yeah,so um yeah, it's just amazing to
me. People, you're the Internetis a bad place from the standpoint of
there's so much more of If youwant to find something awful and scary,
it's gonna feed you awful and scary. And being being afraid of a eye
(39:36):
is no different than than anything else. If you want to If you want
awful, want confirmation bias on AI, you can find it. And the
same with the markets. You wantto find a story that you should be
out, you can find plenty.I find a story you should stay in
and be more aggressive, you canfind it. I'll close with uh,
you know more a politicized example ofthis. I was just visiting my brother
in law in Portland, Oregon,and um, you know, Foxes NonStop.
(40:00):
Portland's on fire. It's the mosthorrible place in the world. Well,
it's just terrible, terrible. AndI was talking to my brother in
law and he showed me that theseveral blocks where you know, you don't
want to be. But he's like, these blocks have always been bad.
Yeah, since the beginning of Portland. And as I was driving to the
airport on the way home, Idid drive by some of those areas.
(40:21):
And by the way, when you'rein Portland, it's one of the most
beautiful places in the country that youwill ever see. So people say it's
awful, it's on fire. It'sthe most ridiculous thing ever. That is
propaganda. Okay, there's a coupleof spots you shouldn't be in any other
city. You don't think there's nota couple of spots you don't want to
be in in Detroit or Cleveland.Okay, I'm gonna tell you. You
(40:43):
don't think there's a couple of spotsin some of these cities that were right
next to because when I drove tothe airport and drove through some of these.
If you'd have told me that itwas Detroit or Cleveland or Chicago or
anywhere else, I would not haveknown the difference. And then everything around
around Portland is beautiful with green spacesand every thing else they have. So
he said to me, it's like, am I happy about it? That
(41:05):
it may be escalated atle bit ofcourse that because he works downtown. He's
like, but to portray it theway that they portrayed it, and to
not look at every city in Americaand say that there's an issue because like,
oh, it's only that city.Oh it's only that city. Nonsense.
Yeah, okay, should we dobetter? Should we do better in
every city? Of course? Andso the AI, whether someone's looking to
(41:25):
be scared about the end of theworld with that, or where there's somebody's
looking to be angry about what's goingon in liberal cities, the Internet will
give it to you, and it'sonly amped up. And that may be
is the one bad thing, oneof a couple bad things that has come
from the Internet is that. Brad. But take our last pause. You're
listening to money sense. Kevin Bradand Dennis Kurston will be right back and
welcome back to the show. You'relistening to the advisors of Kurston Wealth Manager
(41:50):
Group, Kevin Kurston, Brad Kurstonand Dennis Kurston. Before we end the
show, as a reminder, weare professional financial advisors and our offices are
in Perrysburg. If you want togive us a call throughout throughout the week
to set up a consultation, reviewyour own financial plan, get a second
opinion, or start from scratch andget going. Give us a call for
one nine eight seven two zero zerosixty seven or check us out online at
Kirstenwealth dot com. Want to endthe show with a little comedy here,
(42:14):
guys, and also a little political. I find what's going on with our
president wandering around the stage and ourvice president fumbling over her words, And
I thought, maybe you could goto Hollywood, Brad, and you could
present a script for a show whereyou had a bumbling, foolish president and
a bumbling foolish vice president. Willthat work well? It already has.
(42:37):
Oh, it won a lot ofawards. It was veep, it was,
it was it was. It waspure satire and comedy and you watched
it back then saying well, thiscould never happen. And you think to
yourself when you're watching the show Veep, which is on HBO, which the
hilarious show by the way, whereyou have this bumbling, foolish vice president.
So here's a little side by side. Now you might recognize Kamala Harris's
(43:00):
voice, but the voice the othervoice is satire. It's comedy. And
you tell me, Denny with theother voice Joe Louis Dreyfuss, who was
a vice president on the show VIEP. Tell me if you could tell the
difference between there's two One vice presidentis satire, one is real. Tell
me if you could tell the differenceshave many meanings, and sometimes instead of
conveying our meaning, they can suggestother meanings. When we talk about the
(43:22):
children of the community, there area children of the community. Well,
we are the United States of Americabecause we are united, and we are
states of a significance of the passageof time, right, the significance of
the passage of time. So whenyou think about it, there is a
great significance to the passage of time. Whatever we have in store cannot be
(43:50):
known. The past was once thefuture. The future is, I should
say unknown. We got to takethe stuff seriously as seriously as you are,
because you have been forced to haveto take it seriously. Obesity is
a serious disease and it needs tobe taken seriously. Certain issues are just
settled. No, that's right,and that's why I do believe that we
are living sadly in real unsettled times. So so you're listening to that if
(44:22):
you didn't know, I mean itwas back and forth, back and forth.
Kabbala has a very distinct voice,but kind of crazy that that is
the world we're living. We're livingin veep times. Yes, word salad
is the word. Well, Idon't care who either side I want.
When people ask me who do youwant to run? I want somebody that
is not a joke, and Ifeel like both sides are on the verge
(44:43):
of doing that. You know what'sthe most amazing skill her meat away.
You know, the most amazing skillJoe Biden has. This is the most
amazing skill I've ever seen in mylife. When he exits a podium,
he has one hundred percent wrong onthe direction he's supposed to exit. You
would think, just by dumb luck, he'd get it fifty fifty. He
turns the wrong direction and walks thewrong way one hundred percent of the time.
(45:06):
I've never seen anything like another.There's another quote about him being wrong
one hundred percent of the time fromUh, the former president Obama and his
former defense Clary with Bill with hisname mill Uh. I can't think of
his name anyhow, He said,kill mine has been wrong on every form
policy declusion one hundred percent of thetime his whole life. I mean,
(45:28):
it's Robert thinking about rerunning him.It's amazing, it is amazing. It'll
be fascinating to see how how thatall plays out. But I'm telling you
what, and this obviously is anopinion, but as bad as he is,
he beats Trump. So but thisyear more than ever, then next
year more than ever, you're gonnabe it's a vote for Kamala Harris.
(45:50):
If you're voting for Biden, there'sso can you imagine that that's probably the
best, the best UH campaign rightthere? Voever Biden is a vote for
Harris. Yeah, so we'll see. She's going to continue to fumble over
her words. Should have been betteroff not being vice president because I think
everybody thought a lot more of herwhen when she was sort of in the
in the background in the Senate.The more she talks, the more everyone's
(46:13):
like, what is what is happeninghere? And so it will it will
continue to be satire. I don'tthink that's going to change. And when
we get into political season next year, I'm sure we'll hear even more of
it. Thanks for listening, everybody. We'll talk to you next week.
You've been listening to Money since,brought to you each week by Kristen Wealth
(46:34):
Management Group. To contact Dennis Brattor Kevin professionally called four one nine eight
seven two zero zero six seven oreight hundred eight seven five seventeen eighty six.
Their email address is Kristen Wealth atLPO dot com and their website is
Kristen Wealth dot com. Opinions voicedin this show or for general information only,
and are not intended to provide specificadvice or recommendations for any individual.
(46:58):
To determine which invests may be appropriatefor you, consult with your financial advisor
prior to investing. Securities are offeredthrough LPL Financial Member Finrep SIPC
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