October 11, 2024 • 42 mins
(Full Show) The 2024 election is going to come down to a handful of swing states. How is Donald Trump doing in those swing states? In this special, Jesse Kelly dives into the data and narratives surrounding the most important states in the 2024 cycle. Jesse speaks with Scott Presler for an on-the-ground update on Pennsylvania. He also speaks to Tudor Dixon, who reports from Michigan. Plus, a journey around the electoral map and bold predictions from Sean Spicer.
I'm Right with Jesse Kelly on The First TV | 10-10-24
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
You know what sucks about presidential elections? I don't matter,
And depending on where you're watching me right now, you
don't matter. I should put a little disclaimer on that
whole not matter thing. My vote. I live in Texas,
My vote is not really going to be critical for
(00:30):
this election. And if you live in most of our states,
a solidly read or solidly blue state, that's most of
our states, your vote. You should still vote because there
are up and down ballot races that matter, but your
vote is actually not something that's going to change anything.
And that sucks to hear, doesn't it? Because I want
(00:50):
to be involved. I want to matter. Don't you want
to matter? I want to say in the election, But
elections come down to swing states and I don't live
in one of those. Elections come down to Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin,
North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. That's where the election
(01:13):
will come down. Oh but we might break off this,
so we have to worry about that. That's what matters
for presidential elections. Now. I need to pause on that
before we get back to the presidential elections and say this,
you really need to stay involved politically. There are so
many more important elections than president Every election matter is
(01:34):
go vote in all of them. Local, your state house,
your city council. Every election matters, so you need to
be involved. We're only talking about presidential politics here, Okay,
So back to that swing states. How are we looking
what's the status of our swing states? Because this is
an election we really need to win, and more specifically,
(01:55):
this is an election we can't afford to lose. Well,
there are ways of thinking and ways of looking at this.
The most common way of thinking that I've seen so
far in this election, and it's one I tend to
agree with, is the sun Belt States the arizonas the
Georgia's the North Carolina. I don't necessarily consider it sun Belt,
(02:18):
but anyway, the sun Belt States are thought to be
states where Trump. I don't want to use terms like
has it in the bag? Right, It's nearly not the
term I want to use because I don't want people
to get complacent. But Trump looks really, really good in
those states. If if he is able to swing those states,
(02:41):
all he needs is one Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. All he
needs is one if he gets the sun Belt States
and gets any one of those three, he's president of
the United States of America. Again, that's something we have
to consider. Another thing we have to consider is Nevada.
This is not a state when it comes to presidential
politics that gets discussed a lot, and for me most
(03:04):
of my life, it's kind of been this odd place.
When people think of Nevada, they think of Las Vegas,
they think of gambling. They're not really tuned into the
political situation there. Nevada has six electoral College votes, would
be nice to have those. Republicans have proven they can
get elected there in statewide elections. Is this something that's
(03:28):
in play. Look, we'll talk to Sean Spicer about that.
You break off Nevada, they give you some leeway with
other states. This stuff matters. And when it comes to
these swing states themselves, where are we at? How are
we looking? Again? I'm nervous because I'm hopeful. Everything I
(03:48):
hear right now sounds good. And I'm not just talking
about things I see in the news or polls, or
when I hear about panic inside the Kamala Harris campaign,
and I tend to believe it. When I see this
on CBS about warning lights in Georgia, that's something.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
But while Joe Biden won this state in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (04:13):
So you're voting for Donald Trump.
Speaker 2 (04:14):
There are warning lights for Kamala Harris.
Speaker 3 (04:17):
I feel like he aligns more with America and American
values than than she does.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
Do you, Isaac Simpson explain those Trump values?
Speaker 4 (04:25):
Why I made some gains on a delicious potato biscuit
and Omelet I.
Speaker 3 (04:29):
Just know that once you start doing away with things
like the Second Amendment and altering it to your own
what you think is sensible, then it's a problem because
then who's the arbiter.
Speaker 1 (04:38):
They I don't look, it's one guy, you never know.
But I hear a lot of that stuff from Sun
belt states like Georgia, and let's go out and bank Georgia.
Let's take Georgia and we'll put it in a little
pocket right there. What about Wisconsin? How are they going
to vote? Are they going to vote based on the
(05:00):
economy and finances?
Speaker 5 (05:05):
I want some more money in my pocket.
Speaker 6 (05:07):
They vote their pocket books, and I remember, do you
think she's gonna do that?
Speaker 1 (05:10):
For you?
Speaker 7 (05:13):
Trump? Right all the way.
Speaker 1 (05:18):
Again, it's one person, but it's something Michigan, Now be
honest with you. I'm just being honest, I've written off Michigan.
We'll talk to Tutor Dixon in a little while and
Sean Spicer and see what they think about Michigan. I
just I consider the place blue. Maybe I'm just so
disgusted by that twenty twenty mid term election, the election
of Gretchen Whitmer. Maybe that's tainted Michigan for me. Maybe
(05:41):
it's my natural hatred for Michigan because I was born
in Ohio. I don't know, but I'll tell you this,
lady running for senator for senator, for Senate in Michigan,
she thinks there might be trouble.
Speaker 8 (05:56):
This is a I'm not feeling my best right now
about where we are.
Speaker 9 (05:59):
And Amala Harris in a place like Michigan right now,
we have her underwater in our polling.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
She's underwater in Michigan. Trying not again, I'm trying not
to get giddy. But Donald Trump wins Michigan. In the
Sun Belt states, he's the president, and that of course
leads us to the state we're probably focused on the
most Pennsylvania. How are things looking? If you want to
really see something that said, take a look at what happened?
Speaker 2 (06:37):
Wait, wait, wait.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
He got shot in the head in Pennsylvania. Does that
effect a vote? It has to write and that moment,
that's why we played it for you again. That's a
moment that's going to last. It's going to resonate in
people's minds. I am doing the thing I tend to
do every election. I'm getting hopeful. But it's all about
(07:26):
the swing states. It's all about the Michigans, the Pennsylvania's Virginia.
Virginia might be in playable talk from Virginia, Georgia's Arizonas, Nevadas.
There is a lot to unpack. Me. I'm in Texas.
My states decided. It's the swing states that matter, and
it's the swing states we shall focus on beginning right
about now. All that may have made you uncomfortable, but
(07:49):
I am right. Scott Presler is parked in that state
of Pennsylvania. Let's talk to him about it next. The
(08:10):
swing states elections are won by swing states presidential elections anyway,
and there is no more important state this election cycle
than the state of Pennsylvania, my old stomping grounds. I
still have all kinds of family in that state. I
love the state, but it's a state that can blow
a bunch of different directions and frustrate us to no end.
(08:32):
Scott Presler, to his credit, realized that and has planted
his butt in that state to try to win it
for us, joining me now founder of Early Vote Action,
my friend, Scott Presler. Okay, Scott, don't blow sunshine on me.
You know what I'm talking about. How are we doing
in Pennsylvania? Are we getting our teeth kicked in? Are
we coming back? What's the deal?
Speaker 10 (08:53):
Well, objectively, Jesse, you know Michael Pressman, I think his
name is. He postsed the voter reg data for the
last month for states all across the nation, and Republicans
actually in Pennsylvania added more Republican voters than even the
state of Florida in the last thirty days in PA.
(09:17):
And we are out registering the Democrats two to one.
And furthermore, the Democrats are actually down four hundred and
thirty thousand mail in ballots from where they were four
years ago at the same time. So the voter registration numbers, Jesse,
look good. The mail in ballot numbers look good. However,
(09:37):
I have broken two election integrity stories, Jesse. The first
one that the Luzern County Board of Elections is backlogged
with thousands of unprocessed voter registration and mail in ballot applications.
That's story number one. The story number two was during
the historic Trump Butler rally. You know, the Pennsylvania Department
(09:58):
of States scheduled events on that day, and we uncovered
that and made sure that the website was going to
be up and running even during Trump's rally. Now the
third thing, and I know I'm taking a lot of time,
but this is important. I have heard that Board of
Elections are telling voters that there is no early voting
in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 7 (10:18):
That is a lie, that is not true.
Speaker 10 (10:21):
And if you go to your Board of Election by
beginning on October fifteenth, ask with this language that I'm
about to tell you, you're going to request an on
demand in person mail in ballot And if anybody tells
you that there is no early voting, you pull out
your phone, you record it, and you send it to
(10:43):
your buddy that has one point seven million followers on
x and we will make that very public to the
rest of the nation.
Speaker 1 (10:52):
On demand in person. Remember the language you used on
demand in person? Okay, Scott, all right, Now there's something
that fascinates me. What motivates people to vote. Kamala Harris
has famously been against fracking. For fracking, well, here she is.
(11:13):
I wanted to ask you.
Speaker 6 (11:14):
There's a political ad on TV from a nineteen twenty
nineteen climate Hall town meeting that you had, in which
you basically said, quote, there's no question I'm in favor
of banning fracking unquote. The ad claims that if you're
elected president, you will ban fracking and you will cost
(11:37):
Pennsylvania over three hundred thousand jobs. Have you changed your
view on fracking, and if so, why.
Speaker 4 (11:48):
So?
Speaker 9 (11:48):
Let me start by saying that that ad, as you
described it, as absolutely a mischaracterization that I think is
intended to make people afraid of my presidency. Let me
be absolutely clear, as I've been when I said it
back in twenty twenty. I will not banfracking. I did
not as Vice president. In fact, I cast the tie
(12:11):
breaking vote to open up more cracking leases. And my
perspective on this is grounded in a number of things.
Speaker 1 (12:23):
Scott, you are the one here registering people in Pennsylvania.
Are these people registering because they are in love with
Donald Trump? Or because they are angry at the state
of the country, Joe Biden specifically, are they disgusted by
Kamala Harris those comments? What are people saying to Scott
Pressler when they're punching their name on the Republican voter
(12:45):
registration ticket.
Speaker 7 (12:47):
Well, I think it's everything, Jesse.
Speaker 10 (12:49):
Look, at the end of the day, people are afraid
of a Kamala Harris presidency.
Speaker 7 (12:56):
She'll stack the Supreme Court. She'll make DC fifty first state.
Speaker 10 (13:01):
She'll take away our opportunity to ever have conservative Supreme
Court justices, conservative judicial appointments.
Speaker 7 (13:08):
She'll keep that border open.
Speaker 10 (13:10):
She'll give thirty million illegal aliens citizenship. She'll expand Dhaka,
She'll continue to get us into World War three and beyond.
Speaker 7 (13:17):
She will send young men and women into war.
Speaker 10 (13:20):
She'll continue to increase our inflation, and we're not going
to be able to afford homes and cars and guests
and groceries. And at the same time, that's why people
are registering to vote for President Donald Trump.
Speaker 7 (13:33):
Under Donald Trump, we did not have new war. We
had peace. Under Donald Trump. We had a secure border
and now it's open.
Speaker 10 (13:40):
Under Donald Trump, we had more jobs, we had it
was easier to afford groceries, and everything else. So really,
there is no more stark contrast between the four years
of President Trump and the four years now under the
effeckless and dangerous policies of Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.
(14:01):
And I think that's why we're seeing Democrats switch to
Republican by three times more than Republicans are switching to Democrat,
and why we're seeing more double the amount of people
registering to vote as Republican than Democrat. Pennsylvania wins the
White House. Guys, usually you see a bubbly fund Scott.
(14:21):
This is a serious Scott, because our country is on
the line. You have until October twenty first to register
to vote. Make sure that you are meeting that deadline
and make sure that you are making a plan to
vote on Tuesday, November fifth, for Donald Trump and our
entire Republican ticket.
Speaker 1 (14:39):
Scott, Pennsylvania has a huge Amish population. Tell me about
Homash voters. I'm well familiar with Amish people. Those are
my people, my Grandpa Hank Rest in peace, Grandpa Hank.
That was his side of the family. So I spent
a bunch of time with homage people in Pennsylvania. They
certainly look at life differently, they operate differently. Do they vote,
who do they vote for? Has Scott Presser been out
(15:01):
there eating Amish butter? Who are these people?
Speaker 10 (15:05):
We are courting the Amish vote here in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 7 (15:09):
I want to make it very clear.
Speaker 10 (15:10):
Democrat Governor Shapiro is waging a war on the Amish,
on raw milk, on dairy, on farming, foul choice, on
religious freedom, on small businesses, on the opportunity to afford
to have large families, and so we are going out
to the sawmills, to the dairy farms. I just got
(15:32):
a list of thousands of Amish addresses that my organization
Early Vote Action is going to be reaching out to,
is going to be courting those votes and giving them
voter registration applications. Again, the last day to register to
vote is October twenty first, Scott.
Speaker 1 (15:53):
Okay, Now, if people want to help, because people do
want to help, they oftentimes can feel helpless. I'm sitting
here in Texas. Yes, we have to vote, we have
to get involved, but I have a red state. Donald
Trump's going to win my state. I can't help Scott
Presler in Pennsylvania win the state that's going to win
the White House.
Speaker 7 (16:10):
Right, absolutely, that is not true.
Speaker 10 (16:14):
Look, if you live in California, Massachusetts, Alabama, Tennessee, you're
in a red state, you're in a blue state. You
can download my application Early Vote Action. It's on Android,
it's on the iPhone. You can text people, you can
call them, you can write postcards.
Speaker 7 (16:28):
We have a Jewish campaign up.
Speaker 10 (16:30):
Since since we had the remembrance of October seventh, the
travesty that Kamala Harris via Iran funded Hummaus funded the attacks,
the terrorist attacks against Israel and the Jewish people. We
also have a pro peace campaign that is reaching out
to young men that are eighteen to thirty five with
a pro piece anti war message that again Kamala is
(16:54):
going to send young men and women to fight for
wars that we didn't have under President Trump.
Speaker 7 (16:58):
There is something for everyone.
Speaker 10 (17:00):
There is no excuse why everybody at home can't do
their part to help make sure that we are liking
Donald Trump in our entire Republican ticket this November.
Speaker 1 (17:11):
All right, real quick, before I let you go, Scott,
I do have to ask Philadelphia, what do we say
to all the people screaming at you and me at
the television right now? Saying none of this matters, because
Philly's a dirty place, is going to find the cheating
votes they need. What do we say to those people.
Speaker 10 (17:26):
Well, I say to those people respectfully, you're a part
of the problem. If you at home are shouting at
me to do more, I mean this respectfully. What are
you doing at home? What are you doing to save
our country? Are you registering voters? Are you knocking on doors?
Are you talking to your neighbors? Are you registering and
making a plane of vote? On Tuesday, November fifth, with
all due respect, stop waiting for Jesse Kelly and Scott
(17:48):
Press to save the world.
Speaker 7 (17:50):
We need you at home to help save our country.
Speaker 10 (17:53):
Twenty five percent of Philadelphia wins the selection, win's the
White House. Forty percent of Alleghanty County, Pittsburgh wins the
White House. We need to op our vote in Erie
County and Northampton County. And by doing that, by simply
winning twenty five percent of Philadelphia for Donald Trump, meaning
we lose seventy five percent of Philly, we win Pennsylvania.
Speaker 1 (18:14):
Guys, Scott Presler, go health. Let's go win, Scott. I
appreciate it all right. Tudor Dixon, She's planned in Michigan. Now,
I've kind of written Michigan off as a blue state.
It seems to go that way. I realized Trump won
in twenty sixteen, but they re elected Gretchen Whitmer. It's done,
(18:37):
it's done right, But Tudor Dixon doesn't seem to think
it's done. Let's see if she has anything to say next.
(18:57):
Do you ever go out when you were younger, single
and you were looking for I don't know, the opposite sex,
somebody to make out with, and you ended up in
some place and there was this really, really really hot
one and that's the one you wanted, but she had
a five right next to her, and you knew that
there was a chance that was one you were going
to have to go for if it didn't work out. Well,
that's what Michigan is in this election cycle. That's what
(19:19):
Michigan always is, that filthy place because I grew up
an Ohio state fan. But as it pertains to the
election Pennsylvania, it's all we can talk about on the
Republican ticket. Where are we in Pennsylvania. Let's win Pennsylvania.
But Trump did win the five last time, well, in
twenty sixteen, he did win Michigan, joining me now representing
that five. Tutor Dixon, host of the Tutor Dixon podcast,
(19:42):
Tutor No One talks about Michigan. I don't know, maybe
we've written it off as a Tommy hellhole. But can
we win there anymore?
Speaker 2 (19:49):
We can?
Speaker 8 (19:50):
Yeah, absolutely, Michigan is definitely still winnable. It's always very close.
It's going to be very close this time. This time
is a little bit different because there are different issues
played Democrats in Michigan. So I think you'll see that
there's a bit of an argument over where the Arab
American community will fall in Michigan because they're actually fairly conservative.
(20:13):
But obviously there are issues over with what's going on
in the Middle East, and that is really dragging them
back and forth between both candidates.
Speaker 1 (20:23):
Yeah, they hate Jews. How big of a voting population
is that in Michigan? And obviously when you watch Democrats
and how they try to walk that October seventh tight rope,
it's obvious they think the Arab American Muslim American population
is a significant voting block.
Speaker 5 (20:41):
Yeah, absolutely it is.
Speaker 8 (20:43):
And I think that they also know that they made
decisions in the administration that ultimately led to people in
both sides of this crisis losing their lives. I mean,
the fact of the matter is, if we're being very
honest right now, the Biden Harris administration, had they not
given this money, had they not left these sanctions, had
they not allowed around to have the money that they
(21:03):
had that then funded this terror operation, there wouldn't be
the casualties we've seen on both sides of this war.
And so we're being honest in Michigan. I mean, these
people have to understand that this death and destruction, it
directly came from the White House.
Speaker 1 (21:22):
Okay, well, setting aside the holy war going on in
that state, what about the rest of it. I look
at the election results of your election. Sorry not to
tear at an old wound, but I look at that
and I was mortified. I was mortified that Niatis. Couldn't
believe my eyes, how could this happen? But I just
wrote Michigan off after that. You told me you're telling
(21:43):
me not to Why no.
Speaker 5 (21:46):
Because I believe that.
Speaker 8 (21:47):
I mean, Michigan is one of those states that has
gone Republican Democrat.
Speaker 5 (21:50):
Republican Democrat.
Speaker 8 (21:51):
We had the lost years of our previous governor who's
now the Energy Secretary, Jennifer Granholme. Then we went to
a republic and Rick Snyder ended up bouncing back to
Gretchen Whitmer. And now we will have another lost decade
under Gretchen Whitmer. I mean, this is actually significantly worse
than what we saw during the Grand Home years. We're
(22:12):
at a point now where we've lost so many jobs,
we have so few businesses left in the state of Michigan.
The energy grid is a disaster. The lights continuously go
out in people's homes. I mean, it really is a
total mess. And the education system has fallen to the
bottom five I think in the nation right now. And
I believe they just passed something saying that parents can't
(22:32):
foye to find out what the curriculum is in schools.
So while we have failing schools, parents aren't allowed to
ask what is that going on?
Speaker 5 (22:38):
Why aren't our kids learning?
Speaker 8 (22:40):
That's the state of Michigan right now, And ultimately, I
think people will say, Okay, we've had enough. We want
someone who's going to be actually really leading the state.
Speaker 1 (22:51):
How's Gretchen Whitmer hung on to power as long as
she had there? It's not just you know, the winning
re election back into the governor's mansion. She governed like
she's in California, But as you've just pointed out, Michigan
is not California.
Speaker 8 (23:05):
So how most of the time she is in California
these days. I mean, I don't think she's been in
the state for very long since she wrote her book
that's about three pages long, so I think that's probably
why she's governing that way.
Speaker 5 (23:18):
But honestly, she's not governing.
Speaker 8 (23:20):
At all at the moment, and I think that's what
the people of Michigan.
Speaker 5 (23:22):
Are starting to realize.
Speaker 8 (23:24):
I don't know if you've seen this, Jesse, but she's
doing these bizarre videos every day. Just over the weekend,
she did one with Governor Pritzker and they were doing
this back and forth where they're dressing up in their
different team uniforms and she throws a ball at him
and they think this is very playful, and she thinks
she's being adorable.
Speaker 5 (23:43):
Like what is going on?
Speaker 8 (23:44):
So for a long time, I think people said she
wants to be president, and I think.
Speaker 5 (23:49):
There was a hot moment where she.
Speaker 8 (23:51):
Was like, okay, after Joe Biden gets kicked out of
the race, I'll be the candidate.
Speaker 5 (23:55):
And then I don't know. She went a little crazy.
Speaker 8 (23:57):
After that, like, oh, they didn't choose me, so she
decided that she was going to go for that like
Ricky Lake talk show host.
Speaker 5 (24:04):
I don't know.
Speaker 8 (24:05):
That's the only thing I can think of, is she
wants to go back to the days of Jerry Springer
or something.
Speaker 1 (24:11):
Well, you know what signed me up for that. I
had such a blast watch in Springer when I was younger. Tudor,
do you have an icemaker at your house?
Speaker 8 (24:19):
I don't have the issues that you have, but yeah,
I do have an icemaker.
Speaker 1 (24:24):
A portable one like I do.
Speaker 8 (24:26):
No, it's not. It just is in the refrigerator. It
doesn't wake me up. It doesn't like haunt my dreams.
Speaker 1 (24:34):
Okay, Well, I was checking seeing where you were in
life and how things were going with the show and
all that. Okay, back to Michigan. We always talk about
the auto workers unions and these guys as if look
from the outside looking in, people look at that as
the voting block in Michigan. Is it is it? Are
they this juggernaut that you have to win them to
win the state? What are they? As it pertains to Michigan, Well.
Speaker 8 (24:57):
The majority of the state is somehow connected to the
auto industry. Because even if you work in a restaurant
in a one of the towns that has a factory,
you know that restaurant is populated by the people who.
Speaker 5 (25:08):
Work at the factory.
Speaker 8 (25:09):
And if you work out in the suburbs, then those
those businesses are generally Tier one, Tier two, tier three
suppliers to the auto industry. So it's bigger than just
the Auto Workers Union because most people in the state
of Michigan have some connection to the auto industry.
Speaker 5 (25:25):
So of course it's very important.
Speaker 8 (25:27):
But what people are seeing in the state of Michigan
is we are people who assemble vehicles. That's what we do.
We have vehicle plants. Our vehicle assembly plants are leaving.
They're going to Tennessee, they're going to Kentucky, and we're
not getting new ones. As these manufacturers are building new
plants to manufacture vehicles, we're getting plants to manufacture batteries,
(25:47):
and they're coming from China, and it doesn't look like they're.
Speaker 5 (25:50):
Going to have a lot of jobs.
Speaker 8 (25:51):
And so as we hear Biden and Whitmer and Harris
come out and say we want to mandate electric vehicles,
and Harris has absolutely said she wants to mandate electric vehicles.
That's not We're not going to be manufacturing vehicles anymore
in the state of Michigan. We're going to be manufacturing
electric batteries, which is not our forte, which is not
what people in the state are used to. It's not
(26:13):
like jobs are interchangeable like that. You don't, I know,
Biden things. You can close down a pipeline and oh,
don't worry, they're all going to build solar.
Speaker 5 (26:20):
Panels for twelve dollars an hour.
Speaker 8 (26:22):
These jobs are not interchangeable. These are skilled positions. And
so the auto workers actually see that. They look at
this and they go, oh, my gosh, our jobs are leaving.
Speaker 5 (26:30):
And I don't necessarily want to work.
Speaker 8 (26:32):
With these batteries that are filled with corrosive materials that
can burn right through your arm and we've never dealt
with before. I mean, these are truly changes in the
manufacturing process that are not that's not our expertise, and
that our expertise we see leaving. So the autoworkers are saying, well,
wait a minute, maybe evs are not the answer. Maybe
we want someone who's going to support gas powered vehicles
(26:54):
and make sure that our industry actually survives.
Speaker 1 (26:58):
Tudor the auto industry. I hear about how angry these
workers are. You just pointed it out. How have they
traditionally voted are this seems like it would be a
union Democrat voting block. But it's so obvious for someone
like me that Democrats have declared war on their industry.
You just laid out the results of it. Is there
(27:20):
some sort of an anti Democrat rebellion with these people
in Michigan?
Speaker 8 (27:24):
Well, I mean, you hear it, You hear rumblings of it.
Certainly there are people who have come to us and
said that. I actually was out in my yard the
other day and a woman stopped me and said, I
just want you to know that I worked for the
auto industry my entire life. I've been a member of
the union, and about ten years ago they started calling
me at my house and saying, this is.
Speaker 5 (27:43):
How you'll vote. She said.
Speaker 8 (27:45):
It was the first time they honestly said this is
how you will vote.
Speaker 5 (27:49):
There you have no choice.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
She said.
Speaker 8 (27:50):
That's when I started to get suspicious about my union dues.
Speaker 5 (27:53):
But I mean, it's the.
Speaker 8 (27:54):
Same thing with the teachers' union, and I think that
one's even more damaging. I don't think public unions should
be allowed to give money to candidates, because ultimately our
taxpayer dollars are going to the teachers who are forced
to pay it to the union, and then the union
elects people we don't want in office.
Speaker 5 (28:10):
It's outrageous.
Speaker 8 (28:11):
These public unions should not be allowed to take all
of their their members' money and donate it to Democrat
candidates who then ultimately hurt them.
Speaker 1 (28:21):
What's the worst part about living in Michigan? Do you
find it burdened some hotwood?
Speaker 8 (28:26):
Michigan is an amazingly beautiful state. Look, we have incredible beaches.
We have no sharks, we have no salt water.
Speaker 5 (28:34):
It's absolutely beautiful.
Speaker 8 (28:36):
You can ski in the winter, you can swim and
surf in this summer. It's ridiculous that we have to
live under this communist rule.
Speaker 5 (28:42):
But we're done with it.
Speaker 8 (28:43):
We're going to make sure that the next election is
a good one.
Speaker 1 (28:48):
Beautiful beaches, Okay, Tutor Tutor Dixon, everybody hosted the Tutor
Dixon Show. All right, we're not done yet. We have
more thanks the sun Belt, all these Arizonas and Georgia's
(29:15):
of the world. When we talk about the upcoming election,
we talk about the sun Belts as a foregone conclusion.
That's probably a little too strong, but be honest, I'm
just as guilty as this as everyone else. We're banking
on it. Well, yeah, we're gonna win the sun Belt. Now,
we'll just have to win one of the Rust Belt states.
If you said anything like that, I most definitely have.
But why are we banking on it? We didn't win
(29:37):
it last time. Let's ask Sean Spicer about that. Joining
me now, my friend, host of the amazing Sean Spicer Show,
which is blowing up all over the place. Sean, all right,
we're banking on the sun Belt. I'm banking on the
sun Belt. I practically already banked those votes. But I
don't know that that's smart. Should I be banking on
the sun Belt? And if so, why?
Speaker 2 (29:58):
I think Arizona.
Speaker 4 (29:59):
Yeah, it's for a bunch of reasons immigration. Trump's doing
much better with Hispanic voters in Arizona, So I would
put that one in the bank. Nevada, which I don't know,
is that technically sunbelt?
Speaker 2 (30:14):
But I I don't.
Speaker 4 (30:15):
I don't feel good about Nevada. I had Robert Cahaley
on my show. I think that the the turnout among
unions in Clark County, which is where a lot of
that come, a lot of that bulk is that they
they know.
Speaker 2 (30:29):
How to turn their people out. The machine there is real.
Speaker 4 (30:32):
It lives on after this, the ghost of Harry Reid,
the former setup majority leader.
Speaker 2 (30:37):
I'm telling you, I don't like that one.
Speaker 4 (30:38):
That's six electoral votes there, but we don't need that.
Arizona good, Georgia I feel good about. And then here's
where this gets tricky. A week ago I had North
Carolina pretty solidly.
Speaker 2 (30:54):
Trump has won it twice.
Speaker 4 (30:55):
There are a state that's used to splitting their votes
for governor and president. So that's not a big issue
in terms of that goober and a toil race being
a drag.
Speaker 2 (31:03):
But what concerns me, Jesse is sixty one.
Speaker 4 (31:06):
Percent of the affected area from Hurricane Helene that western
part of North Carolina. So you got that blue dot
of Asheville and then everything around it.
Speaker 2 (31:17):
Is Trump country. And if you think.
Speaker 4 (31:21):
About it, it makes sense everything you're worried about food
and water and clearing you know, the road and maybe
getting some shelter back and these not only are these citizens,
but the governments, the local municipalities there. They don't know
how they're going to vote. We still got time to
do it. But that's a big chunk of vote that
(31:42):
you have to worry about. And I don't mean to
be crass when people are suffering, but it's a political
reality and that concerns me.
Speaker 2 (31:51):
Now. If we want to move up a little north,
I feel very good.
Speaker 4 (31:58):
We've always said if he carries the sun Belt area, right,
not even Nevada. If you can carry Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona,
then all he has to do is pick off one
of the rust you know, that sort of blue wall, right.
Speaker 2 (32:12):
I will tell you this right now. I made a prediction.
Speaker 4 (32:14):
We do a thing on my show every Wednesday called
the Road to two seventy where I go through every
single state and the District of Columbia.
Speaker 2 (32:21):
We never forget DC.
Speaker 4 (32:23):
Don't worry, DC, We got you, and I have Trump
at three hundred and six electoral votes right now. I
believe that all three blue wall states will fall to Trump.
Michigan trending his way, Wisconsin trending his way, and Pennsylvania
and it's not like, hey, Sean, you're just guessing on this.
(32:44):
The voter registration, if we start in Pennsylvania alone, has
been cut by overhats.
Speaker 2 (32:50):
So when Trump ran in.
Speaker 4 (32:51):
Twenty sixteen, they brought it down three hundred thousand to
twenty twenty. It is now down another three hundred thousand.
In terms of new registrations, the people who newly vote
to newly register to vote. Rather these people, you don't
go out and register to vote and then not vote, right,
You may do it and then in two cycles not vote.
So these are highly motivated people that have voted and
(33:11):
voted are registered and registered Republican. They've closed the gap
in Lucerne County. In Fayette County, Republicans now outnumber Democrats
for the first time in decades. So the trend in Pennsylvania,
when you actually look at the data, not just you know,
a gut feeling or yard signs, is very good.
Speaker 2 (33:30):
In Michigan, same thing.
Speaker 4 (33:32):
You look at the private polling of congressmanase Alyssa Slockin,
who's running against Mike Rodgers. There, she had a call
private call with donors that got leaked and she said,
Kamala Harris is upside down in my polling. That's a problem,
and we're seeing that same trend when you not look
at one poll, but look at a series of polls.
Speaker 2 (33:52):
Michigan is moving in Donald Trump's direction.
Speaker 4 (33:54):
And by the way, Mike Rogers will win that race
in the Senate.
Speaker 2 (33:59):
I feel very very bullish on that. Wisconsin I feel good.
Speaker 4 (34:03):
About as well. But here is the biggest problem with Wisconsin.
The voter data in Wisconsin is largely incomplete. What do
I mean by that, They don't require voting registrart, I
mean voting history or age on there. So when you
go look at Wisconsin and try to get a better
handle on creating a model to figure out how people
(34:24):
are voting, it's much much harder. The nice thing is
Donald Trump in particular has overperformed in Wisconsin the last
two cycles. You saw Ron Johnson overperform there in twenty
twenty two. So if we go into Wisconsin tied and
we're tied thirty days out, that's a win for Donald Trump.
So I feel very good about the direction now. Like
(34:47):
anything else, this is like a weather report, Jesse. You
know you could check back in in three days. And
this is my shameless way of getting back on your
show is it's like the track of a storm. It
can change right now where things stand, That's where I
think things come out now.
Speaker 2 (35:04):
In politics, it's like riding a wave.
Speaker 4 (35:06):
You want to be cresting with the wave as goes
into shore, not trying to hold it back. And Kamala
Harris's team is holding that wave back, saying please don't crash,
Please don't crash. Donald Trump is on the top of
that wave, surfing in. He just if he can keep
this thing going. I as I said, I think he
wins with three hundred and six electoral votes.
Speaker 1 (35:26):
I want There's so much I want to get into
with you there. I realize we are obviously limited on time,
but we still have the.
Speaker 2 (35:31):
Jesse Kelly Show.
Speaker 1 (35:32):
Me first of.
Speaker 4 (35:33):
The Jesse Kelly Show, you just you just say how
much time do you want?
Speaker 1 (35:38):
That's right, that's we're doing five hours that I know
we're not okay. I want you to talk to me
about Nevada, Sean, because this state is always as a
political nerd, I'm not an expert, I'm a fan right
As a political nerd, it's always fascinated me because it's
always sold as this purple state, we might do this,
we might do that, and I realized we may have
broken off one here or there, but it's never really
(36:00):
gone that way. Sean. You mentioned the unions, and every
time I talk about Nevada, Harry Reid in the unions
come up. What kind of unions are we talking about?
What is Nevada?
Speaker 2 (36:12):
So look, Nevada is an interesting state.
Speaker 4 (36:15):
You have Clark County where Las Vegas is right, and
that's that's the that's the huge, huge chunk of the
vote that comes out of there. Now, Harry Reid died,
he had a massive machine there. But that's why I
call it the ghost of Harry Reid, because the machine
that he put in place lives on and and these
guys get out there and they make sure that their
union folks they go around and they I mean, like
(36:36):
you got to give them credit.
Speaker 2 (36:37):
It's a machine. They do this better than anybody.
Speaker 4 (36:39):
They make sure that all their members cast their ballot
for who they're supposed to wink nod, and they do
it right on election day so that they you know,
they make sure that they get the right vote at
the right time. Donald Trump is going to probably come
closer than any Republican I think he could pull it
out on.
Speaker 2 (36:55):
Election day potentially.
Speaker 4 (36:57):
Joe Lombardo, the current governor, he ran a pitch perfect
race and one, so can can it happen?
Speaker 2 (37:03):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (37:03):
But I think that the union machine there, the culinary union,
the workers at the casinos, those guys, they they they
get how important it.
Speaker 2 (37:15):
Is to have a Democrat in office. Right, look at
the longshoreman.
Speaker 4 (37:18):
Do you realize the deal that I mean that with
these guys just cut. They understood they had the best
friend they're ever going to have in terms of labor.
These guys wanted seventy one percent increase in wages, they
got sixty something. Who else is going to get a
sixty percent increase? You know, name one other industry. They
get how important it is to have a Democrat in
the White House, a Democrat Secretary of Labor, et cetera.
Speaker 2 (37:38):
So that's why that the.
Speaker 4 (37:41):
Union machine understands that it is imperative, it is a
way of life for them to have a Democrat in
the White House, and they will go to all lengths
possible to deliver Clark County in particular for a Democrat.
Speaker 1 (37:57):
All Right, I woant to wrap this up talking about
Arizona you're very confident in Arizona, and I'm glad you are.
Can you explain Arizona for me? And I understand stay
and there may be conflicts of interest here, but Donald
Trump looks like he's going to win Arizona. It looks
like Carrie Lake is going to get curb stomped in Arizona.
(38:18):
You want to tell me why.
Speaker 4 (38:20):
One thing that's really interesting if you can go back
to Nevada. In the current models, Nevada has about seven
point two to seven point eight percent of the electorate.
That's third party. No other state looks like that. And
there's a big question as to why the Democrats sued
to keep Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, off the ballot.
There's a complete plot here to make sure that everything
(38:42):
advantage is kama Her.
Speaker 2 (38:43):
So I just wanted to make sure.
Speaker 4 (38:43):
That this is a weird dynamic that's happening in Nevada.
But getting back to Arizona, Carrie Lake is down probably
about eight points in most public pollings.
Speaker 2 (38:54):
To Congressman Reuben Diego.
Speaker 4 (38:56):
When I ask Ahley the same question that you did,
and I said, you know, doesn't look good for her,
he said, I think there's gonna be a hidden Trump
vote in Arizona that comes out for Carrie Lake as well.
And he was, he said, just he was cautious about
that race, meaning I would have on any other day
said there's no way that carry Lake. She's way outside
(39:16):
the margin error time is getting short. The Democrats went
all in to get Guego. I still I still come
down on this. I think it's going to be hard
for her. Put it that way, that is one that
would be a big surprise to me on election night
because of the following Jesse, it's not one poll or another.
Speaker 2 (39:34):
Look at the public polling in Arizona. It doesn't.
Speaker 4 (39:37):
It's never favored Carrie Lake. And when I say that,
it's not one pollar, two poles, you can't find a
single pole where it shows a trend moving in her direction.
Speaker 2 (39:46):
To Haley believes that there's a hidden.
Speaker 4 (39:48):
Voter in in Arizona that will benefit her, I just
I have a hard time believing that that's going to
make up eight percent.
Speaker 1 (39:57):
Yeah, I do too, fingers crossed, have a hard time
believe in it. Sean, thank you, my brother. He is
Sean Spicer of the Sewn Spicer Show. Obviously, I would
gobble that up every day if I were you, all right,
we'll be back, all right, So let's wrap this up.
(40:26):
Just a reminder, this is what we do in an
election season, because every election is hugely important, and obviously
this one is hugely important. We read poll numbers, We
focus on poll numbers, and we focus on national polls.
What's the latest poll say? What did Gallup say today?
What's Rasmus said? But what did the national polls say?
(40:47):
But presidential elections are not about national polls. Honestly, they're
not even really national elections. Presidential elections are about a
few states. They're about the swing states.
Speaker 4 (40:59):
And so.
Speaker 1 (41:01):
As we watch and try to figure out is Trump
going to do it, as Kamala Harris going to do it,
pay attention to the specific state by state polls. We
just spent an hour talking about it. You know what matters. Nevada, Arizona,
North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio. We know is going to go red.
Now it used to be part of that Roust Belt
(41:22):
swing thing. Florida used to go it used to be
part of the Rustbelt, or it used to be part
of a swing state thing. Now they're solidly red. So
you can discount those, but it's still Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.
These are the states that matter, and there's always a
surprise state you're kind of not supposed to win. You remember,
(41:42):
we talked to Sean Spacer and Sean was talking about Nevada.
There are some states you can watch that are kind
of eye popping states. I remember when Trump won the
first election in twenty sixteen. We were sitting there watching.
I was watching, just like you were watching, watching as
all the results come in, and we started snapping off
state after state after state, states that we weren't used
(42:04):
to winning at the time, and we were watching it
and thinking to ourselves, wait a minute, I think he's
going to win. That's what we'll watch for on election night.
But from now until then, it's the swing states we
need to focus on. It's the swing states that matter.
It's the swing states we need to help out in
whether or not you reside in them. But that needs
(42:25):
to be our focus. All right, we'll do it again.
You know what sucks about presidential elections? I don't matter,
And depending on where you're watching me right now, you
don't matter. I should put a little disclaimer on that
whole not matter thing. My vote. I live in Texas,
My vote is not really going to be critical for
(00:30):
this election. And if you live in most of our states,
a solidly read or solidly blue state, that's most of
our states, your vote. You should still vote because there
are up and down ballot races that matter, but your
vote is actually not something that's going to change anything.
And that sucks to hear, doesn't it? Because I want
(00:50):
to be involved. I want to matter. Don't you want
to matter? I want to say in the election, But
elections come down to swing states and I don't live
in one of those. Elections come down to Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin,
North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. That's where the election
(01:13):
will come down. Oh but we might break off this,
so we have to worry about that. That's what matters
for presidential elections. Now. I need to pause on that
before we get back to the presidential elections and say this,
you really need to stay involved politically. There are so
many more important elections than president Every election matter is
(01:34):
go vote in all of them. Local, your state house,
your city council. Every election matters, so you need to
be involved. We're only talking about presidential politics here, Okay,
So back to that swing states. How are we looking
what's the status of our swing states? Because this is
an election we really need to win, and more specifically,
(01:55):
this is an election we can't afford to lose. Well,
there are ways of thinking and ways of looking at this.
The most common way of thinking that I've seen so
far in this election, and it's one I tend to
agree with, is the sun Belt States the arizonas the
Georgia's the North Carolina. I don't necessarily consider it sun Belt,
(02:18):
but anyway, the sun Belt States are thought to be
states where Trump. I don't want to use terms like
has it in the bag? Right, It's nearly not the
term I want to use because I don't want people
to get complacent. But Trump looks really, really good in
those states. If if he is able to swing those states,
(02:41):
all he needs is one Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. All he
needs is one if he gets the sun Belt States
and gets any one of those three, he's president of
the United States of America. Again, that's something we have
to consider. Another thing we have to consider is Nevada.
This is not a state when it comes to presidential
politics that gets discussed a lot, and for me most
(03:04):
of my life, it's kind of been this odd place.
When people think of Nevada, they think of Las Vegas,
they think of gambling. They're not really tuned into the
political situation there. Nevada has six electoral College votes, would
be nice to have those. Republicans have proven they can
get elected there in statewide elections. Is this something that's
(03:28):
in play. Look, we'll talk to Sean Spicer about that.
You break off Nevada, they give you some leeway with
other states. This stuff matters. And when it comes to
these swing states themselves, where are we at? How are
we looking? Again? I'm nervous because I'm hopeful. Everything I
(03:48):
hear right now sounds good. And I'm not just talking
about things I see in the news or polls, or
when I hear about panic inside the Kamala Harris campaign,
and I tend to believe it. When I see this
on CBS about warning lights in Georgia, that's something.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
But while Joe Biden won this state in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (04:13):
So you're voting for Donald Trump.
Speaker 2 (04:14):
There are warning lights for Kamala Harris.
Speaker 3 (04:17):
I feel like he aligns more with America and American
values than than she does.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
Do you, Isaac Simpson explain those Trump values?
Speaker 4 (04:25):
Why I made some gains on a delicious potato biscuit
and Omelet I.
Speaker 3 (04:29):
Just know that once you start doing away with things
like the Second Amendment and altering it to your own
what you think is sensible, then it's a problem because
then who's the arbiter.
Speaker 1 (04:38):
They I don't look, it's one guy, you never know.
But I hear a lot of that stuff from Sun
belt states like Georgia, and let's go out and bank Georgia.
Let's take Georgia and we'll put it in a little
pocket right there. What about Wisconsin? How are they going
to vote? Are they going to vote based on the
(05:00):
economy and finances?
Speaker 5 (05:05):
I want some more money in my pocket.
Speaker 6 (05:07):
They vote their pocket books, and I remember, do you
think she's gonna do that?
Speaker 1 (05:10):
For you?
Speaker 7 (05:13):
Trump? Right all the way.
Speaker 1 (05:18):
Again, it's one person, but it's something Michigan, Now be
honest with you. I'm just being honest, I've written off Michigan.
We'll talk to Tutor Dixon in a little while and
Sean Spicer and see what they think about Michigan. I
just I consider the place blue. Maybe I'm just so
disgusted by that twenty twenty mid term election, the election
of Gretchen Whitmer. Maybe that's tainted Michigan for me. Maybe
(05:41):
it's my natural hatred for Michigan because I was born
in Ohio. I don't know, but I'll tell you this,
lady running for senator for senator, for Senate in Michigan,
she thinks there might be trouble.
Speaker 8 (05:56):
This is a I'm not feeling my best right now
about where we are.
Speaker 9 (05:59):
And Amala Harris in a place like Michigan right now,
we have her underwater in our polling.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
She's underwater in Michigan. Trying not again, I'm trying not
to get giddy. But Donald Trump wins Michigan. In the
Sun Belt states, he's the president, and that of course
leads us to the state we're probably focused on the
most Pennsylvania. How are things looking? If you want to
really see something that said, take a look at what happened?
Speaker 2 (06:37):
Wait, wait, wait.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
He got shot in the head in Pennsylvania. Does that
effect a vote? It has to write and that moment,
that's why we played it for you again. That's a
moment that's going to last. It's going to resonate in
people's minds. I am doing the thing I tend to
do every election. I'm getting hopeful. But it's all about
(07:26):
the swing states. It's all about the Michigans, the Pennsylvania's Virginia.
Virginia might be in playable talk from Virginia, Georgia's Arizonas, Nevadas.
There is a lot to unpack. Me. I'm in Texas.
My states decided. It's the swing states that matter, and
it's the swing states we shall focus on beginning right
about now. All that may have made you uncomfortable, but
(07:49):
I am right. Scott Presler is parked in that state
of Pennsylvania. Let's talk to him about it next. The
(08:10):
swing states elections are won by swing states presidential elections anyway,
and there is no more important state this election cycle
than the state of Pennsylvania, my old stomping grounds. I
still have all kinds of family in that state. I
love the state, but it's a state that can blow
a bunch of different directions and frustrate us to no end.
(08:32):
Scott Presler, to his credit, realized that and has planted
his butt in that state to try to win it
for us, joining me now founder of Early Vote Action,
my friend, Scott Presler. Okay, Scott, don't blow sunshine on me.
You know what I'm talking about. How are we doing
in Pennsylvania? Are we getting our teeth kicked in? Are
we coming back? What's the deal?
Speaker 10 (08:53):
Well, objectively, Jesse, you know Michael Pressman, I think his
name is. He postsed the voter reg data for the
last month for states all across the nation, and Republicans
actually in Pennsylvania added more Republican voters than even the
state of Florida in the last thirty days in PA.
(09:17):
And we are out registering the Democrats two to one.
And furthermore, the Democrats are actually down four hundred and
thirty thousand mail in ballots from where they were four
years ago at the same time. So the voter registration numbers, Jesse,
look good. The mail in ballot numbers look good. However,
(09:37):
I have broken two election integrity stories, Jesse. The first
one that the Luzern County Board of Elections is backlogged
with thousands of unprocessed voter registration and mail in ballot applications.
That's story number one. The story number two was during
the historic Trump Butler rally. You know, the Pennsylvania Department
(09:58):
of States scheduled events on that day, and we uncovered
that and made sure that the website was going to
be up and running even during Trump's rally. Now the
third thing, and I know I'm taking a lot of time,
but this is important. I have heard that Board of
Elections are telling voters that there is no early voting
in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 7 (10:18):
That is a lie, that is not true.
Speaker 10 (10:21):
And if you go to your Board of Election by
beginning on October fifteenth, ask with this language that I'm
about to tell you, you're going to request an on
demand in person mail in ballot And if anybody tells
you that there is no early voting, you pull out
your phone, you record it, and you send it to
(10:43):
your buddy that has one point seven million followers on
x and we will make that very public to the
rest of the nation.
Speaker 1 (10:52):
On demand in person. Remember the language you used on
demand in person? Okay, Scott, all right, Now there's something
that fascinates me. What motivates people to vote. Kamala Harris
has famously been against fracking. For fracking, well, here she is.
(11:13):
I wanted to ask you.
Speaker 6 (11:14):
There's a political ad on TV from a nineteen twenty
nineteen climate Hall town meeting that you had, in which
you basically said, quote, there's no question I'm in favor
of banning fracking unquote. The ad claims that if you're
elected president, you will ban fracking and you will cost
(11:37):
Pennsylvania over three hundred thousand jobs. Have you changed your
view on fracking, and if so, why.
Speaker 4 (11:48):
So?
Speaker 9 (11:48):
Let me start by saying that that ad, as you
described it, as absolutely a mischaracterization that I think is
intended to make people afraid of my presidency. Let me
be absolutely clear, as I've been when I said it
back in twenty twenty. I will not banfracking. I did
not as Vice president. In fact, I cast the tie
(12:11):
breaking vote to open up more cracking leases. And my
perspective on this is grounded in a number of things.
Speaker 1 (12:23):
Scott, you are the one here registering people in Pennsylvania.
Are these people registering because they are in love with
Donald Trump? Or because they are angry at the state
of the country, Joe Biden specifically, are they disgusted by
Kamala Harris those comments? What are people saying to Scott
Pressler when they're punching their name on the Republican voter
(12:45):
registration ticket.
Speaker 7 (12:47):
Well, I think it's everything, Jesse.
Speaker 10 (12:49):
Look, at the end of the day, people are afraid
of a Kamala Harris presidency.
Speaker 7 (12:56):
She'll stack the Supreme Court. She'll make DC fifty first state.
Speaker 10 (13:01):
She'll take away our opportunity to ever have conservative Supreme
Court justices, conservative judicial appointments.
Speaker 7 (13:08):
She'll keep that border open.
Speaker 10 (13:10):
She'll give thirty million illegal aliens citizenship. She'll expand Dhaka,
She'll continue to get us into World War three and beyond.
Speaker 7 (13:17):
She will send young men and women into war.
Speaker 10 (13:20):
She'll continue to increase our inflation, and we're not going
to be able to afford homes and cars and guests
and groceries. And at the same time, that's why people
are registering to vote for President Donald Trump.
Speaker 7 (13:33):
Under Donald Trump, we did not have new war. We
had peace. Under Donald Trump. We had a secure border
and now it's open.
Speaker 10 (13:40):
Under Donald Trump, we had more jobs, we had it
was easier to afford groceries, and everything else. So really,
there is no more stark contrast between the four years
of President Trump and the four years now under the
effeckless and dangerous policies of Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.
(14:01):
And I think that's why we're seeing Democrats switch to
Republican by three times more than Republicans are switching to Democrat,
and why we're seeing more double the amount of people
registering to vote as Republican than Democrat. Pennsylvania wins the
White House. Guys, usually you see a bubbly fund Scott.
(14:21):
This is a serious Scott, because our country is on
the line. You have until October twenty first to register
to vote. Make sure that you are meeting that deadline
and make sure that you are making a plan to
vote on Tuesday, November fifth, for Donald Trump and our
entire Republican ticket.
Speaker 1 (14:39):
Scott, Pennsylvania has a huge Amish population. Tell me about
Homash voters. I'm well familiar with Amish people. Those are
my people, my Grandpa Hank Rest in peace, Grandpa Hank.
That was his side of the family. So I spent
a bunch of time with homage people in Pennsylvania. They
certainly look at life differently, they operate differently. Do they vote,
who do they vote for? Has Scott Presser been out
(15:01):
there eating Amish butter? Who are these people?
Speaker 10 (15:05):
We are courting the Amish vote here in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 7 (15:09):
I want to make it very clear.
Speaker 10 (15:10):
Democrat Governor Shapiro is waging a war on the Amish,
on raw milk, on dairy, on farming, foul choice, on
religious freedom, on small businesses, on the opportunity to afford
to have large families, and so we are going out
to the sawmills, to the dairy farms. I just got
(15:32):
a list of thousands of Amish addresses that my organization
Early Vote Action is going to be reaching out to,
is going to be courting those votes and giving them
voter registration applications. Again, the last day to register to
vote is October twenty first, Scott.
Speaker 1 (15:53):
Okay, Now, if people want to help, because people do
want to help, they oftentimes can feel helpless. I'm sitting
here in Texas. Yes, we have to vote, we have
to get involved, but I have a red state. Donald
Trump's going to win my state. I can't help Scott
Presler in Pennsylvania win the state that's going to win
the White House.
Speaker 7 (16:10):
Right, absolutely, that is not true.
Speaker 10 (16:14):
Look, if you live in California, Massachusetts, Alabama, Tennessee, you're
in a red state, you're in a blue state. You
can download my application Early Vote Action. It's on Android,
it's on the iPhone. You can text people, you can
call them, you can write postcards.
Speaker 7 (16:28):
We have a Jewish campaign up.
Speaker 10 (16:30):
Since since we had the remembrance of October seventh, the
travesty that Kamala Harris via Iran funded Hummaus funded the attacks,
the terrorist attacks against Israel and the Jewish people. We
also have a pro peace campaign that is reaching out
to young men that are eighteen to thirty five with
a pro piece anti war message that again Kamala is
(16:54):
going to send young men and women to fight for
wars that we didn't have under President Trump.
Speaker 7 (16:58):
There is something for everyone.
Speaker 10 (17:00):
There is no excuse why everybody at home can't do
their part to help make sure that we are liking
Donald Trump in our entire Republican ticket this November.
Speaker 1 (17:11):
All right, real quick, before I let you go, Scott,
I do have to ask Philadelphia, what do we say
to all the people screaming at you and me at
the television right now? Saying none of this matters, because
Philly's a dirty place, is going to find the cheating
votes they need. What do we say to those people.
Speaker 10 (17:26):
Well, I say to those people respectfully, you're a part
of the problem. If you at home are shouting at
me to do more, I mean this respectfully. What are
you doing at home? What are you doing to save
our country? Are you registering voters? Are you knocking on doors?
Are you talking to your neighbors? Are you registering and
making a plane of vote? On Tuesday, November fifth, with
all due respect, stop waiting for Jesse Kelly and Scott
(17:48):
Press to save the world.
Speaker 7 (17:50):
We need you at home to help save our country.
Speaker 10 (17:53):
Twenty five percent of Philadelphia wins the selection, win's the
White House. Forty percent of Alleghanty County, Pittsburgh wins the
White House. We need to op our vote in Erie
County and Northampton County. And by doing that, by simply
winning twenty five percent of Philadelphia for Donald Trump, meaning
we lose seventy five percent of Philly, we win Pennsylvania.
Speaker 1 (18:14):
Guys, Scott Presler, go health. Let's go win, Scott. I
appreciate it all right. Tudor Dixon, She's planned in Michigan. Now,
I've kind of written Michigan off as a blue state.
It seems to go that way. I realized Trump won
in twenty sixteen, but they re elected Gretchen Whitmer. It's done,
(18:37):
it's done right, But Tudor Dixon doesn't seem to think
it's done. Let's see if she has anything to say next.
(18:57):
Do you ever go out when you were younger, single
and you were looking for I don't know, the opposite sex,
somebody to make out with, and you ended up in
some place and there was this really, really really hot
one and that's the one you wanted, but she had
a five right next to her, and you knew that
there was a chance that was one you were going
to have to go for if it didn't work out. Well,
that's what Michigan is in this election cycle. That's what
(19:19):
Michigan always is, that filthy place because I grew up
an Ohio state fan. But as it pertains to the
election Pennsylvania, it's all we can talk about on the
Republican ticket. Where are we in Pennsylvania. Let's win Pennsylvania.
But Trump did win the five last time, well, in
twenty sixteen, he did win Michigan, joining me now representing
that five. Tutor Dixon, host of the Tutor Dixon podcast,
(19:42):
Tutor No One talks about Michigan. I don't know, maybe
we've written it off as a Tommy hellhole. But can
we win there anymore?
Speaker 2 (19:49):
We can?
Speaker 8 (19:50):
Yeah, absolutely, Michigan is definitely still winnable. It's always very close.
It's going to be very close this time. This time
is a little bit different because there are different issues
played Democrats in Michigan. So I think you'll see that
there's a bit of an argument over where the Arab
American community will fall in Michigan because they're actually fairly conservative.
(20:13):
But obviously there are issues over with what's going on
in the Middle East, and that is really dragging them
back and forth between both candidates.
Speaker 1 (20:23):
Yeah, they hate Jews. How big of a voting population
is that in Michigan? And obviously when you watch Democrats
and how they try to walk that October seventh tight rope,
it's obvious they think the Arab American Muslim American population
is a significant voting block.
Speaker 5 (20:41):
Yeah, absolutely it is.
Speaker 8 (20:43):
And I think that they also know that they made
decisions in the administration that ultimately led to people in
both sides of this crisis losing their lives. I mean,
the fact of the matter is, if we're being very
honest right now, the Biden Harris administration, had they not
given this money, had they not left these sanctions, had
they not allowed around to have the money that they
(21:03):
had that then funded this terror operation, there wouldn't be
the casualties we've seen on both sides of this war.
And so we're being honest in Michigan. I mean, these
people have to understand that this death and destruction, it
directly came from the White House.
Speaker 1 (21:22):
Okay, well, setting aside the holy war going on in
that state, what about the rest of it. I look
at the election results of your election. Sorry not to
tear at an old wound, but I look at that
and I was mortified. I was mortified that Niatis. Couldn't
believe my eyes, how could this happen? But I just
wrote Michigan off after that. You told me you're telling
(21:43):
me not to Why no.
Speaker 5 (21:46):
Because I believe that.
Speaker 8 (21:47):
I mean, Michigan is one of those states that has
gone Republican Democrat.
Speaker 5 (21:50):
Republican Democrat.
Speaker 8 (21:51):
We had the lost years of our previous governor who's
now the Energy Secretary, Jennifer Granholme. Then we went to
a republic and Rick Snyder ended up bouncing back to
Gretchen Whitmer. And now we will have another lost decade
under Gretchen Whitmer. I mean, this is actually significantly worse
than what we saw during the Grand Home years. We're
(22:12):
at a point now where we've lost so many jobs,
we have so few businesses left in the state of Michigan.
The energy grid is a disaster. The lights continuously go
out in people's homes. I mean, it really is a
total mess. And the education system has fallen to the
bottom five I think in the nation right now. And
I believe they just passed something saying that parents can't
(22:32):
foye to find out what the curriculum is in schools.
So while we have failing schools, parents aren't allowed to
ask what is that going on?
Speaker 5 (22:38):
Why aren't our kids learning?
Speaker 8 (22:40):
That's the state of Michigan right now, And ultimately, I
think people will say, Okay, we've had enough. We want
someone who's going to be actually really leading the state.
Speaker 1 (22:51):
How's Gretchen Whitmer hung on to power as long as
she had there? It's not just you know, the winning
re election back into the governor's mansion. She governed like
she's in California, But as you've just pointed out, Michigan
is not California.
Speaker 8 (23:05):
So how most of the time she is in California
these days. I mean, I don't think she's been in
the state for very long since she wrote her book
that's about three pages long, so I think that's probably
why she's governing that way.
Speaker 5 (23:18):
But honestly, she's not governing.
Speaker 8 (23:20):
At all at the moment, and I think that's what
the people of Michigan.
Speaker 5 (23:22):
Are starting to realize.
Speaker 8 (23:24):
I don't know if you've seen this, Jesse, but she's
doing these bizarre videos every day. Just over the weekend,
she did one with Governor Pritzker and they were doing
this back and forth where they're dressing up in their
different team uniforms and she throws a ball at him
and they think this is very playful, and she thinks
she's being adorable.
Speaker 5 (23:43):
Like what is going on?
Speaker 8 (23:44):
So for a long time, I think people said she
wants to be president, and I think.
Speaker 5 (23:49):
There was a hot moment where she.
Speaker 8 (23:51):
Was like, okay, after Joe Biden gets kicked out of
the race, I'll be the candidate.
Speaker 5 (23:55):
And then I don't know. She went a little crazy.
Speaker 8 (23:57):
After that, like, oh, they didn't choose me, so she
decided that she was going to go for that like
Ricky Lake talk show host.
Speaker 5 (24:04):
I don't know.
Speaker 8 (24:05):
That's the only thing I can think of, is she
wants to go back to the days of Jerry Springer
or something.
Speaker 1 (24:11):
Well, you know what signed me up for that. I
had such a blast watch in Springer when I was younger. Tudor,
do you have an icemaker at your house?
Speaker 8 (24:19):
I don't have the issues that you have, but yeah,
I do have an icemaker.
Speaker 1 (24:24):
A portable one like I do.
Speaker 8 (24:26):
No, it's not. It just is in the refrigerator. It
doesn't wake me up. It doesn't like haunt my dreams.
Speaker 1 (24:34):
Okay, Well, I was checking seeing where you were in
life and how things were going with the show and
all that. Okay, back to Michigan. We always talk about
the auto workers unions and these guys as if look
from the outside looking in, people look at that as
the voting block in Michigan. Is it is it? Are
they this juggernaut that you have to win them to
win the state? What are they? As it pertains to Michigan, Well.
Speaker 8 (24:57):
The majority of the state is somehow connected to the
auto industry. Because even if you work in a restaurant
in a one of the towns that has a factory,
you know that restaurant is populated by the people who.
Speaker 5 (25:08):
Work at the factory.
Speaker 8 (25:09):
And if you work out in the suburbs, then those
those businesses are generally Tier one, Tier two, tier three
suppliers to the auto industry. So it's bigger than just
the Auto Workers Union because most people in the state
of Michigan have some connection to the auto industry.
Speaker 5 (25:25):
So of course it's very important.
Speaker 8 (25:27):
But what people are seeing in the state of Michigan
is we are people who assemble vehicles. That's what we do.
We have vehicle plants. Our vehicle assembly plants are leaving.
They're going to Tennessee, they're going to Kentucky, and we're
not getting new ones. As these manufacturers are building new
plants to manufacture vehicles, we're getting plants to manufacture batteries,
(25:47):
and they're coming from China, and it doesn't look like they're.
Speaker 5 (25:50):
Going to have a lot of jobs.
Speaker 8 (25:51):
And so as we hear Biden and Whitmer and Harris
come out and say we want to mandate electric vehicles,
and Harris has absolutely said she wants to mandate electric vehicles.
That's not We're not going to be manufacturing vehicles anymore
in the state of Michigan. We're going to be manufacturing
electric batteries, which is not our forte, which is not
what people in the state are used to. It's not
(26:13):
like jobs are interchangeable like that. You don't, I know,
Biden things. You can close down a pipeline and oh,
don't worry, they're all going to build solar.
Speaker 5 (26:20):
Panels for twelve dollars an hour.
Speaker 8 (26:22):
These jobs are not interchangeable. These are skilled positions. And
so the auto workers actually see that. They look at
this and they go, oh, my gosh, our jobs are leaving.
Speaker 5 (26:30):
And I don't necessarily want to work.
Speaker 8 (26:32):
With these batteries that are filled with corrosive materials that
can burn right through your arm and we've never dealt
with before. I mean, these are truly changes in the
manufacturing process that are not that's not our expertise, and
that our expertise we see leaving. So the autoworkers are saying, well,
wait a minute, maybe evs are not the answer. Maybe
we want someone who's going to support gas powered vehicles
(26:54):
and make sure that our industry actually survives.
Speaker 1 (26:58):
Tudor the auto industry. I hear about how angry these
workers are. You just pointed it out. How have they
traditionally voted are this seems like it would be a
union Democrat voting block. But it's so obvious for someone
like me that Democrats have declared war on their industry.
You just laid out the results of it. Is there
(27:20):
some sort of an anti Democrat rebellion with these people
in Michigan?
Speaker 8 (27:24):
Well, I mean, you hear it, You hear rumblings of it.
Certainly there are people who have come to us and
said that. I actually was out in my yard the
other day and a woman stopped me and said, I
just want you to know that I worked for the
auto industry my entire life. I've been a member of
the union, and about ten years ago they started calling
me at my house and saying, this is.
Speaker 5 (27:43):
How you'll vote. She said.
Speaker 8 (27:45):
It was the first time they honestly said this is
how you will vote.
Speaker 5 (27:49):
There you have no choice.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
She said.
Speaker 8 (27:50):
That's when I started to get suspicious about my union dues.
Speaker 5 (27:53):
But I mean, it's the.
Speaker 8 (27:54):
Same thing with the teachers' union, and I think that
one's even more damaging. I don't think public unions should
be allowed to give money to candidates, because ultimately our
taxpayer dollars are going to the teachers who are forced
to pay it to the union, and then the union
elects people we don't want in office.
Speaker 5 (28:10):
It's outrageous.
Speaker 8 (28:11):
These public unions should not be allowed to take all
of their their members' money and donate it to Democrat
candidates who then ultimately hurt them.
Speaker 1 (28:21):
What's the worst part about living in Michigan? Do you
find it burdened some hotwood?
Speaker 8 (28:26):
Michigan is an amazingly beautiful state. Look, we have incredible beaches.
We have no sharks, we have no salt water.
Speaker 5 (28:34):
It's absolutely beautiful.
Speaker 8 (28:36):
You can ski in the winter, you can swim and
surf in this summer. It's ridiculous that we have to
live under this communist rule.
Speaker 5 (28:42):
But we're done with it.
Speaker 8 (28:43):
We're going to make sure that the next election is
a good one.
Speaker 1 (28:48):
Beautiful beaches, Okay, Tutor Tutor Dixon, everybody hosted the Tutor
Dixon Show. All right, we're not done yet. We have
more thanks the sun Belt, all these Arizonas and Georgia's
(29:15):
of the world. When we talk about the upcoming election,
we talk about the sun Belts as a foregone conclusion.
That's probably a little too strong, but be honest, I'm
just as guilty as this as everyone else. We're banking
on it. Well, yeah, we're gonna win the sun Belt. Now,
we'll just have to win one of the Rust Belt states.
If you said anything like that, I most definitely have.
But why are we banking on it? We didn't win
(29:37):
it last time. Let's ask Sean Spicer about that. Joining
me now, my friend, host of the amazing Sean Spicer Show,
which is blowing up all over the place. Sean, all right,
we're banking on the sun Belt. I'm banking on the
sun Belt. I practically already banked those votes. But I
don't know that that's smart. Should I be banking on
the sun Belt? And if so, why?
Speaker 2 (29:58):
I think Arizona.
Speaker 4 (29:59):
Yeah, it's for a bunch of reasons immigration. Trump's doing
much better with Hispanic voters in Arizona, So I would
put that one in the bank. Nevada, which I don't know,
is that technically sunbelt?
Speaker 2 (30:14):
But I I don't.
Speaker 4 (30:15):
I don't feel good about Nevada. I had Robert Cahaley
on my show. I think that the the turnout among
unions in Clark County, which is where a lot of
that come, a lot of that bulk is that they
they know.
Speaker 2 (30:29):
How to turn their people out. The machine there is real.
Speaker 4 (30:32):
It lives on after this, the ghost of Harry Reid,
the former setup majority leader.
Speaker 2 (30:37):
I'm telling you, I don't like that one.
Speaker 4 (30:38):
That's six electoral votes there, but we don't need that.
Arizona good, Georgia I feel good about. And then here's
where this gets tricky. A week ago I had North
Carolina pretty solidly.
Speaker 2 (30:54):
Trump has won it twice.
Speaker 4 (30:55):
There are a state that's used to splitting their votes
for governor and president. So that's not a big issue
in terms of that goober and a toil race being
a drag.
Speaker 2 (31:03):
But what concerns me, Jesse is sixty one.
Speaker 4 (31:06):
Percent of the affected area from Hurricane Helene that western
part of North Carolina. So you got that blue dot
of Asheville and then everything around it.
Speaker 2 (31:17):
Is Trump country. And if you think.
Speaker 4 (31:21):
About it, it makes sense everything you're worried about food
and water and clearing you know, the road and maybe
getting some shelter back and these not only are these citizens,
but the governments, the local municipalities there. They don't know
how they're going to vote. We still got time to
do it. But that's a big chunk of vote that
(31:42):
you have to worry about. And I don't mean to
be crass when people are suffering, but it's a political
reality and that concerns me.
Speaker 2 (31:51):
Now. If we want to move up a little north,
I feel very good.
Speaker 4 (31:58):
We've always said if he carries the sun Belt area, right,
not even Nevada. If you can carry Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona,
then all he has to do is pick off one
of the rust you know, that sort of blue wall, right.
Speaker 2 (32:12):
I will tell you this right now. I made a prediction.
Speaker 4 (32:14):
We do a thing on my show every Wednesday called
the Road to two seventy where I go through every
single state and the District of Columbia.
Speaker 2 (32:21):
We never forget DC.
Speaker 4 (32:23):
Don't worry, DC, We got you, and I have Trump
at three hundred and six electoral votes right now. I
believe that all three blue wall states will fall to Trump.
Michigan trending his way, Wisconsin trending his way, and Pennsylvania
and it's not like, hey, Sean, you're just guessing on this.
(32:44):
The voter registration, if we start in Pennsylvania alone, has
been cut by overhats.
Speaker 2 (32:50):
So when Trump ran in.
Speaker 4 (32:51):
Twenty sixteen, they brought it down three hundred thousand to
twenty twenty. It is now down another three hundred thousand.
In terms of new registrations, the people who newly vote
to newly register to vote. Rather these people, you don't
go out and register to vote and then not vote, right,
You may do it and then in two cycles not vote.
So these are highly motivated people that have voted and
(33:11):
voted are registered and registered Republican. They've closed the gap
in Lucerne County. In Fayette County, Republicans now outnumber Democrats
for the first time in decades. So the trend in Pennsylvania,
when you actually look at the data, not just you know,
a gut feeling or yard signs, is very good.
Speaker 2 (33:30):
In Michigan, same thing.
Speaker 4 (33:32):
You look at the private polling of congressmanase Alyssa Slockin,
who's running against Mike Rodgers. There, she had a call
private call with donors that got leaked and she said,
Kamala Harris is upside down in my polling. That's a problem,
and we're seeing that same trend when you not look
at one poll, but look at a series of polls.
Speaker 2 (33:52):
Michigan is moving in Donald Trump's direction.
Speaker 4 (33:54):
And by the way, Mike Rogers will win that race
in the Senate.
Speaker 2 (33:59):
I feel very very bullish on that. Wisconsin I feel good.
Speaker 4 (34:03):
About as well. But here is the biggest problem with Wisconsin.
The voter data in Wisconsin is largely incomplete. What do
I mean by that, They don't require voting registrart, I
mean voting history or age on there. So when you
go look at Wisconsin and try to get a better
handle on creating a model to figure out how people
(34:24):
are voting, it's much much harder. The nice thing is
Donald Trump in particular has overperformed in Wisconsin the last
two cycles. You saw Ron Johnson overperform there in twenty
twenty two. So if we go into Wisconsin tied and
we're tied thirty days out, that's a win for Donald Trump.
So I feel very good about the direction now. Like
(34:47):
anything else, this is like a weather report, Jesse. You
know you could check back in in three days. And
this is my shameless way of getting back on your
show is it's like the track of a storm. It
can change right now where things stand, That's where I
think things come out now.
Speaker 2 (35:04):
In politics, it's like riding a wave.
Speaker 4 (35:06):
You want to be cresting with the wave as goes
into shore, not trying to hold it back. And Kamala
Harris's team is holding that wave back, saying please don't crash,
Please don't crash. Donald Trump is on the top of
that wave, surfing in. He just if he can keep
this thing going. I as I said, I think he
wins with three hundred and six electoral votes.
Speaker 1 (35:26):
I want There's so much I want to get into
with you there. I realize we are obviously limited on time,
but we still have the.
Speaker 2 (35:31):
Jesse Kelly Show.
Speaker 1 (35:32):
Me first of.
Speaker 4 (35:33):
The Jesse Kelly Show, you just you just say how
much time do you want?
Speaker 1 (35:38):
That's right, that's we're doing five hours that I know
we're not okay. I want you to talk to me
about Nevada, Sean, because this state is always as a
political nerd, I'm not an expert, I'm a fan right
As a political nerd, it's always fascinated me because it's
always sold as this purple state, we might do this,
we might do that, and I realized we may have
broken off one here or there, but it's never really
(36:00):
gone that way. Sean. You mentioned the unions, and every
time I talk about Nevada, Harry Reid in the unions
come up. What kind of unions are we talking about?
What is Nevada?
Speaker 2 (36:12):
So look, Nevada is an interesting state.
Speaker 4 (36:15):
You have Clark County where Las Vegas is right, and
that's that's the that's the huge, huge chunk of the
vote that comes out of there. Now, Harry Reid died,
he had a massive machine there. But that's why I
call it the ghost of Harry Reid, because the machine
that he put in place lives on and and these
guys get out there and they make sure that their
union folks they go around and they I mean, like
(36:36):
you got to give them credit.
Speaker 2 (36:37):
It's a machine. They do this better than anybody.
Speaker 4 (36:39):
They make sure that all their members cast their ballot
for who they're supposed to wink nod, and they do
it right on election day so that they you know,
they make sure that they get the right vote at
the right time. Donald Trump is going to probably come
closer than any Republican I think he could pull it
out on.
Speaker 2 (36:55):
Election day potentially.
Speaker 4 (36:57):
Joe Lombardo, the current governor, he ran a pitch perfect
race and one, so can can it happen?
Speaker 2 (37:03):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (37:03):
But I think that the union machine there, the culinary union,
the workers at the casinos, those guys, they they they
get how important it.
Speaker 2 (37:15):
Is to have a Democrat in office. Right, look at
the longshoreman.
Speaker 4 (37:18):
Do you realize the deal that I mean that with
these guys just cut. They understood they had the best
friend they're ever going to have in terms of labor.
These guys wanted seventy one percent increase in wages, they
got sixty something. Who else is going to get a
sixty percent increase? You know, name one other industry. They
get how important it is to have a Democrat in
the White House, a Democrat Secretary of Labor, et cetera.
Speaker 2 (37:38):
So that's why that the.
Speaker 4 (37:41):
Union machine understands that it is imperative, it is a
way of life for them to have a Democrat in
the White House, and they will go to all lengths
possible to deliver Clark County in particular for a Democrat.
Speaker 1 (37:57):
All Right, I woant to wrap this up talking about
Arizona you're very confident in Arizona, and I'm glad you are.
Can you explain Arizona for me? And I understand stay
and there may be conflicts of interest here, but Donald
Trump looks like he's going to win Arizona. It looks
like Carrie Lake is going to get curb stomped in Arizona.
(38:18):
You want to tell me why.
Speaker 4 (38:20):
One thing that's really interesting if you can go back
to Nevada. In the current models, Nevada has about seven
point two to seven point eight percent of the electorate.
That's third party. No other state looks like that. And
there's a big question as to why the Democrats sued
to keep Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, off the ballot.
There's a complete plot here to make sure that everything
(38:42):
advantage is kama Her.
Speaker 2 (38:43):
So I just wanted to make sure.
Speaker 4 (38:43):
That this is a weird dynamic that's happening in Nevada.
But getting back to Arizona, Carrie Lake is down probably
about eight points in most public pollings.
Speaker 2 (38:54):
To Congressman Reuben Diego.
Speaker 4 (38:56):
When I ask Ahley the same question that you did,
and I said, you know, doesn't look good for her,
he said, I think there's gonna be a hidden Trump
vote in Arizona that comes out for Carrie Lake as well.
And he was, he said, just he was cautious about
that race, meaning I would have on any other day
said there's no way that carry Lake. She's way outside
(39:16):
the margin error time is getting short. The Democrats went
all in to get Guego. I still I still come
down on this. I think it's going to be hard
for her. Put it that way, that is one that
would be a big surprise to me on election night
because of the following Jesse, it's not one poll or another.
Speaker 2 (39:34):
Look at the public polling in Arizona. It doesn't.
Speaker 4 (39:37):
It's never favored Carrie Lake. And when I say that,
it's not one pollar, two poles, you can't find a
single pole where it shows a trend moving in her direction.
Speaker 2 (39:46):
To Haley believes that there's a hidden.
Speaker 4 (39:48):
Voter in in Arizona that will benefit her, I just
I have a hard time believing that that's going to
make up eight percent.
Speaker 1 (39:57):
Yeah, I do too, fingers crossed, have a hard time
believe in it. Sean, thank you, my brother. He is
Sean Spicer of the Sewn Spicer Show. Obviously, I would
gobble that up every day if I were you, all right,
we'll be back, all right, So let's wrap this up.
(40:26):
Just a reminder, this is what we do in an
election season, because every election is hugely important, and obviously
this one is hugely important. We read poll numbers, We
focus on poll numbers, and we focus on national polls.
What's the latest poll say? What did Gallup say today?
What's Rasmus said? But what did the national polls say?
(40:47):
But presidential elections are not about national polls. Honestly, they're
not even really national elections. Presidential elections are about a
few states. They're about the swing states.
Speaker 4 (40:59):
And so.
Speaker 1 (41:01):
As we watch and try to figure out is Trump
going to do it, as Kamala Harris going to do it,
pay attention to the specific state by state polls. We
just spent an hour talking about it. You know what matters. Nevada, Arizona,
North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio. We know is going to go red.
Now it used to be part of that Roust Belt
(41:22):
swing thing. Florida used to go it used to be
part of the Rustbelt, or it used to be part
of a swing state thing. Now they're solidly red. So
you can discount those, but it's still Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.
These are the states that matter, and there's always a
surprise state you're kind of not supposed to win. You remember,
(41:42):
we talked to Sean Spacer and Sean was talking about Nevada.
There are some states you can watch that are kind
of eye popping states. I remember when Trump won the
first election in twenty sixteen. We were sitting there watching.
I was watching, just like you were watching, watching as
all the results come in, and we started snapping off
state after state after state, states that we weren't used
(42:04):
to winning at the time, and we were watching it
and thinking to ourselves, wait a minute, I think he's
going to win. That's what we'll watch for on election night.
But from now until then, it's the swing states we
need to focus on. It's the swing states that matter.
It's the swing states we need to help out in
whether or not you reside in them. But that needs
(42:25):
to be our focus. All right, we'll do it again.
Host
Jesse Kelly
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