Let's Talk Money

July 30th, 2023

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Hello, and good morning folks.On this well, seems to be a
beautiful day now. Yesterday started outbeautiful as well, but we knew the
rain was coming. I don't thinkwe're getting rain today. And the skies
are blue, a little nip inthe air. It's a perfect morning to
sit back, relax, enjoy thenext hour. If you have any questions,

(00:20):
any questions whatsoever, please give mea call one eight hundred talk w
g Y one eight hundred eight twofive five nine four nine one eight hundred
eight two five fifty nine forty nineany questions, folks. We had a
great show yesterday, a lot ofgood questions. And I like to say

(00:42):
there's never any question that shouldn't beasked. I can almost assure you there's
somebody else listening that will thank youfor asking the question. So I mean
July thirtieth, Today is July thirtieth, I mean two more days. It's
August. First time is flying.Enjoy, enjoy the rest of the summer.

(01:04):
I know you're enjoying the stock marketrally. That's been a beautiful,
beautiful thing to take part of sinceOctober twelfth of last fall. And after
a year like last year, thisyear, investors deserve it. They realize
the world isn't coming to an end. Harmony put it perfectly. Harmony who

(01:26):
just recently achieved her Personal Wealth Advisordesignation and it's something very few advisors have,
so she can help our high networth clients go deeper and wider with
their advice. She said a fewmonths ago in a webinar. These investors

(01:48):
always feel last year and whenever theylose money that this time is different,
the world's coming to an end.In Harmony had a great slide up there.
I should get it and put itup again. It's the world's not
coming to an end. This timeis no different than every other time.
The stock market will come back,will make new all time highs, and

(02:09):
that's what happens. So if you'reworried about your portfolio, please call me.
Hopefully I've been able to help calmyou and have you stay invested or
if anything, make changes in theportfolio so that you get rid of the
dogs and hopefully put some winners inthere. But you definitely don't ever want

(02:30):
to market time and get out completelybecause you never know when the market's going
to turn. To think that theSMP is up twenty five percent from the
lows of October. NASTACK is almostup fifty percent from the lows of October.
As we sit here, SMP isup twenty percent year to date,
Nastack thirty seven percent. But QQQyou hear me talk about it, a

(02:52):
loppies, My clients own it.They've owned it for a long, long,
long time. And a QQQ isup forty four percent year to date.
That's year to date, folks,that's not you know, since the
lows of the market. As theysaid, QQQ is up over fifty percent
from the lows, and SMP isup about twenty five percent. So we've

(03:14):
had a nice rally and I thinkthe rally is going to stay. It
was enlightening to hear fed reserved chair. They came out raised interest rates a
quarter of a point. We kindof expected that. That was no surprise,
and that's baked into the cake.Folks. The stock market knew that.
The stock market knew that there wasgoing to be a quarter of point

(03:37):
hike. I was hoping they wantit, but they just felt they needed
to remember I said it yesterday.J Powell does not want to be like
Arthur Burns, who was the Fedreserved chair in the seventies who got it
all wrong and messed up the economymade it worse. He definitely doesn't want
to be like that, so he'sa tough, talking cookie and the hard

(04:03):
work, the effort that the FEDhas put in hiking interest rates now eleven
times since March twenty twenty two,it's working. Inflation has come down from
nine point one to three percent,and the stock market has gone up.
Bonds have been a good place toput money. First time in a long

(04:23):
time. You've ever heard me saythat, And I know I sound like
a broken record, but I feelthere's more upside in this market. I
feel the worst is behind us,and I feel that long term investors should
never get shaken. So if youhave any questions, give me a call.
Zach Harris, my long term producer, and I are here, ready,

(04:45):
willing and able to talk with you. Answer your question point in the
right direction, give you my opinion. The phone lines are one, eight
hundred eight two, five, fivenine four nine, one eight hundred eight
two, five fifty nine forty nine. UM. I woke up this morning
and you know it's crazy. Weknew what was coming right Elon Musk,

(05:09):
one of the most brilliant, eccentricindividuals that will probably ever come across and
doesn't doesn't he You know that littlebird? I love that little bird,
the logo for for Twitter. Butno, nope, nope, that's gone,
folks. Now, I woke upthis morning to an x um Tom
Lee, one of the analysts thatI follow, who says he he did

(05:34):
a tweet um he said, surpriseto wake up to x and he says,
count me as a believer in ElonMusk. How many times has he
proven critics wrong? Too many forme to fit into two hundred and fifty
five characters. Brilliant but that thatthat's where we're at. Twitter is now

(05:54):
an X, so I guess wecall it X. He's got big plans
for Twitter going forward. And youknow, it took me a long time
to adapt to Twitter. And I, you know, I just I don't
even look at the negative stuff.I listen. Life's too short to get
caught up in the negative stuff andbe part of it. But there is

(06:15):
some good information. I use ita lot for a lot of the investment
folks that I follow, where they'resharing their views and just giving updates and
I like it for that good.You know, sometimes I'm enlightened to some
good articles. But this morning,if you're looking for your little tweet tweetie
bird, she's gone. You're gonnawake up to an X one eight hundred

(06:41):
eight two five five nine four nine. If you have any questions, give
me a call. So you know, the headlines of Yesterday's Wall Street Journal
right on the front page, asoft landing in sight for US economy.
And I've been you know, Ihate to you know, I listen.

(07:03):
I hate to say that I've beenin this camp for a long time,
but folks, I've been in thiscamp for a long time. I've been
hounding that we don't need to havea deep recession. We don't need for
the economy to get ugly in orderfor inflation to come down. And I
truly believe that. I believe thatfor a long time now. And it

(07:26):
was nice to read that headline yesterday'ssoft landing in sight for the US economy.
Companies pull back but postpone job cutsthat could spur slow down. It
looks as though maybe we won't haveto have millions of hard workers out there
trying to put food on a table. Pay for the rent or mortgage.
Maybe, just maybe they won't haveto lose their job because I don't know

(07:50):
why, but I do think thistime is different. I know that's an
oxymoron, right, I just saidwhen it comes to stock market corrections,
this time isn't different. World's notcoming to an end. But I've been
saying that I felt this this thistime was different because the economy is so
resilient, and you know, asas the article in the Journal says,

(08:13):
parts of the economy are cooling,just as the Fed Reserve would like to
see them to combat inflation, theywant to see the economy start cooling.
We have free railroads are seeing shippingvolumes decline. We have construction firms are
cutting back on equipment purchases of vendingmachine companies, customers are negotiating prices downward.

(08:35):
That's what the Fed wants to see. So this is all playing into
my my thoughts that we you know, we really don't need to go into
a deep, ugly recession and it'snothing to be afraid of. Even if
we did go into a recession,don't be affirm it. We come in
and out of reactions all the time, and this will not be our last

(08:58):
one, but I think we're goingto be able to avoid a deep recession.
On eight hundred and eight two five, five, nine, four nine.
Let's go to the phone lines wherewe have Mike in Nisky Una.
Hello, Mike, Good morning Steve. How are you. I'm doing wonderful.
It's the sun is out. Igot out of bed, my feet
hit the floor. I'm doing justwonderful. I got a nice cup of

(09:20):
coffee. Um, I'm gonna gowatch the horses and the and the you
know, back bought the stretching andkind of relax. It's so relaxing over
there. I'm doing just wonderful.How about you? Doing very well?
Thanks? Have the same plan today? Going to be up at the track
this afternoon. Oh good good,Look for me. I'm gonna be there.

(09:43):
I actually had a winner in thefirst race yesterday, Carson's Run and
the Baby a two year old,first time out, two turns on the
turf, and and doesn't he win? And we named them Carson's Run after
um. A great story if youif you're on social media, just look
for West Point Thoroughbreds. They're mypartner in this horse and a great story.

(10:03):
How we name the horse, buttoday I got toned up. I'm
a nice little Philly who looks tobe toned up, no pun intended,
a baby of toneless and hopefully,hopefully she'll do something for us in the
fifth race. Put two dollars ashow on her mike, and if she
doesn't win, I promise I'll sendyou the two dollars. I'll take the

(10:24):
money out of my wife's IRA andI'll send it to you. I appreciate
that that's the kind of return Ilike. Well, can I help you
with this morning? Just a questionbecause I know that we are very hot
on the queues. They are,it's a phenomenal ETF. My question is,
since it's trading now at or nearit's fifty two week high, I

(10:48):
think it closed like three eighty three. Can't Number one? Can an ETF
split the way a regular stock does? And number two, do you foresee
the queue splitting as the price continuesto go up just to generate more people
getting in? Yes? Absolutely,yes to both questions. Yes, an

(11:11):
ETF can split, and as theshare price gets to be, you know,
too high for the indexes And thereason why a lot of share prices
split is you know the everyday investorspsychologically, they think that they need to
they need to um um. Well, my tongue tied. You know,

(11:35):
they can't buy enough shares. Youknow, everybody wants to buy one hundred
shares. Well, you can't affordto buy one hundred shares of Berkshire Hathaway
eight class shares at five hundred thousanddollars a share. And as as as
NAS that gets gets up there,that ETF is going to probably split.
Um ETF split all the time.So right now we're sitting at you know,

(11:58):
three hundred and eighty four dollars ofshare. Let's say we'll round it
up, and the all time highis where literally, as you said,
Mike, were just four points awayfrom the all time high. Three hundred
eighty eight was fifty two weeks high. So we'll we'll see where it goes.
But it can split, and don'tbe surprised if it does. And

(12:20):
you know, I sometimes we getclients that say, oh, I lost
money the stock split. Nobody everloses money, and I'm glad you brought
this up, Mike. Nobody everloses money when there's a stock split.
You just have more or less sharesbe Sometimes there's a reverse split, like
ge went through a reverse split.They were sucking win. They're doing good
this year, but remember for yearsthey were sucking win and they did a

(12:43):
reverse split. So stocks can cansplit either way, but investors never lose
money. Sounds good. I appreciateit. Thank you well, that was
an easy question. Listen, enjoythis splendid day. It's lovely out there,
gorgeous, and enjoy it the summer. Listen, it's flying by Mike.

(13:05):
Thank you for calling, and stayhealthy. One eight hundred eight two
five five nine four nine one eighthundred eight two five fifty nine forty nine.
So, as I said, youknow, the FED likes the economy
slowing down, and that's that's goodnews. That means that their efforts of
hiking interest rates is paying off.And they're they're you know, they're they're

(13:30):
cutting inflation. Inflation went from ninepoint one to three percent. I'm anxious
to see what July's reading will be. I'm hoping it's going to be in
the twos. And if it is, I'm telling you folks, don't be
afraid of being invested. Don't beafraid of being invested. And I thought
Mike was going to ask the questionbecause QQQ has had quite the run,

(13:54):
and it truly has had quite therun year to date. As I said,
QQQ up four percent, up fiftypercent from the lows in October.
And just because our share prices highdoesn't mean it can't continue to go up.
When you look at at something likeQQQ, QQQ is you know,
I've been I've been using QQQ foreverand our clients have benefited from my foresight

(14:22):
of being invested in QQQ. Whenwhen our clients, you know, they
ask why do we own QQQ?Sometimes they think back to the turn of
the century when Nansak was a different, different beast than what it is today
and QQQ today, it's just it'smade up of some great companies and companies

(14:46):
that I don't think are going togo out of business, whereas back at
the turn of the century twenty threeyears ago, it hit different type companies.
When you think about the number oneholding being Apple, I love Apple.
An apple day keeps the doctor away, as they say, And it's
one of the only individual stocks thatwe own in the portfolio. Amazon is
the other one. So the numberone holding is Apple. The number two

(15:11):
holding is Microsoft, you got Amazon, the video Meta which was Facebook yet
Tesla Um Google. Folks. Youknow, I guess that's a magnificent seven,
right, Um, that's the magnificentseven. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon,
the video, Facebook, Tesla Google. That's that's what they referred to

(15:33):
as the magnificent seven because these stockshave had quite the run. When when
you think the video up two hundredand fifteen percent year to date, you
got Meta, Facebook, whatever youwant to call it. It's like Twitter
and xum. Meta is up onehundred and sixty percent year to date,

(15:56):
Apple one hundred and seven percent yearto day, Amazon fifty three percent year
to day. And our clients arebenefiting from this because you know, our
top two holdings in our portfolio isAmazon and Apple. They right now and

(16:17):
she I stand to be correct atApples our number one holding. If you
look at the ETFs that we ownand the individual stocks that we own,
Apple makes up about almost five percentof our stock sleeve. You know,
not I'm not including bonds here,but clients sometimes will say, oh I

(16:38):
wish I wish you guys brought individualsocks. I said, why I would
love to own an Apple, AMicrosoft, and Nibidia and Amazon, Pepsi
Broadcom. I said, yeah,I know, I know, but you
do own those stocks, and letme show you in our clients that's exactly
what they own, and that's ourtop holding. Example is our numb from

(17:00):
one holding at almost five percent,Microsoft almost four and a half percent,
Navidea UM you know, makes uptwo percent of our portfolio. Tesla is
in there, I mean, andthen you got some companies like Pepsi,
Pepsi and Coca Cola. Those areour top holdings. Our clients do own
those great stocks, they just don'town them individually, except for Apple and

(17:22):
Amazon. Apple and Amazon we doown individually. So you know, the
stock market, you know, thoseMagnificent seven because of the great returns that
that they've had. You know,these stocks have done really, really well
and driven the returns of both theSMP and NASDAC. So it's nice to

(17:45):
see when we have the equal weightedindex, which if you look at the
the SMP, it's it's a weightedindex, and you know, you have
the top holdings are going to makeup more than the others. And ironically

(18:06):
it's no surprise, right Apple,Microsoft, Amazon, the Video Meta,
Tessa, those are the top holdingsof of the S and P. Apple
makes up about seven and a halfpercent, Microsoft, six and a half
percent, Amazon three percent, Alphabetyou know about four percent. And if

(18:26):
you go to the NASTAC, Applemakes up almost twelve percent of that portfolio,
Microsoft almost ten percent, Amazon fivepercent of QQQ. So what you
have is you have the big namesbecause they're they're price weighted index making up

(18:49):
or market cap index. The DALis a price weighted index making up really
most most of the portfolio. Andthen when you look at an equal weight,
So I'll take the SMP and ifyou look at the equal weight,
you got the same top holdings.The differences they make up point two six
percent. So Apple in the SMPmakes up seven and a half percent,

(19:14):
Microsoft six and a half percent,Amazon three percent in the equal weight point
two six So when you see thatindex kind of doing better, that's good
news for the market. That meansthat the market is broadening out, not
just the Magnificent seven, but othercompanies are doing well. And that equal

(19:36):
weight index is up about ten toeleven percent compared to the SMP up twenty
percent, so it's still half halfof what it is, but ironically,
and I give this number out oftenthe fifteen year average for the SMP.
If you look at the fifteen yearaverage for the SMP that takes into consideration

(19:56):
three bear markets. This is whyyou can't be AFRAI to bear markets or
recessions. Your average return in theSMP five index is eleven point two six
percent. When you look at theequal weight index, your average return is
eleven point two zero percent. Howcrazy is that? And this year it's

(20:17):
half of the performance, which meansthat having those equal weight holdings in your
portfolio could possibly pay off because asthis economy continues to you know, defy
all odds in silence critics and youknow, basically make the bears go back
into hibernation. As this market rallycontinues and more stocks take part in it.

(20:44):
That equal weight if you look,if everything reverts back to the mean
over fifteen years, almost let's callit the same return. The SMP and
the equal weight had the same return, whereas your today the SMP is up
so much, so much more.But in defense of the SMP last year

(21:07):
it was down about nineteen point fourpercent. The equal weight last year was
only down eleven and a half percent. So there you have it. The
Magnificent seven in those big tech companies. Not only do do they lead us
when the market goes up, butthey also lead us when the market goes
down. And one of the reasonswhy the SMP was down so much more

(21:30):
than the equal weight is because ofthose magnificent seven folks. If you have
any questions, give me a call. One eight hundred eight two five five
nine four nine one eight hundred eighttwo five fifty nine forty nine. Any
questions whatsoever, Give me a call. So we got to fed, you
know, good news on the economy. It looks like some parts of the

(21:52):
economy are cooling off, and that'sthat's that's what we want to that's what
we want to see. We don'twant to see a lot of workers get
laid off or lose their job.And we have fresh, fresh data on
the economy. Um that shows uh, you know the US, you know,
we're not suffering from a recession.You know, economic output actually accelerated

(22:17):
in recent months on the back ofsolid consumer spending and inflation cooled as they
said, to three percent in June. Wage growth even though it's still elevated,
it's it's not as elevated as itwas, So you know, that's
that's good news. And you knowwhen when you think the down, the
SMP have risen for three straight weeksnow and the Broader Stock Index closing in

(22:44):
on its highest value since April oftwenty twenty two. Folks, we're coming
up to the bottom of the hour. We're gonna take a quick break for
the news. Call me with anyquestions you have one eight hundred eight two
five five nine four nine. Oneeight hundred eight two fifty nine. You're
listening to Let's Talk Money brought toyou by Bouchape and answer where we help

(23:06):
our clients prioritize their help while wemanage their wealth for life. Stay with
me through the news and give mea call. One eight hundred and eight
two five five nine four nine anyquestions whatsoever. Seeing a couple of quick
minutes, how French is that?Without any further ado, folks, I

(23:29):
have to add some more. Youknow, I'm so proud of my team,
I said in the first half ofthe show. Harmony recently achieved being
a certified private wealth advisor. Andthere aren't many of those folks that in
our business that go through the processand the testing and the education to become

(23:51):
a certified private wealth advisor. It'sreally I'm so proud of Harmony. It
just allows her to work with ourhigh net worth clients a way that you
know, she's just able to understandso much about the you know, just
how complex and in detail oriented someof the private high high network clients,

(24:14):
UM, you know, their livesin tail and I'm so proud of her
to be to do that. AndI also have a couple high RS enrolled
tax agents. UM. Something thatyou know, I have to Zach,
just remind me. I've been sayingthis this week. I have to change
up the the segments, the spotsto reflect just all of the great talent

(24:37):
that I'm surrounded by. But Ijust believe it or not. We we
acquired a small wealth management firm inSaratoga. Saratoga Wealth Advisors merge their clients
into our our business. Uh.Jeff wanted to retire a great Jeff Troubridge
Drake, great great great UM advisthere, I RS tax and rolled agent

(25:03):
and used to work for Aco andhe's had Saratoga Wealth Advisors and it was
just time, you know, hewanted to slow down. So he felt
very He interviewed firms all throughout theNortheast and felt the most comfortable with our
firm. And after he sees whatwe do and how we do it for
clients, even he tells me everyday just how comfortable he is that his

(25:26):
clients are going to be so wellserved. So we merged Jeff's Saratoga Wealth
Advisor into our firm, and wejust you know, we focus a lot
on tax planning for clients. Forfour CPAs and now two i rs and
rolled tax agents. We just doa lot on the tax side, which
is important, especially for clients thathave a lot of taxable gains in their

(25:49):
portfolio and business owners that are makingdecisions. We're able to help them more
than than not one eight hundred eighttwo five nine one eight hundred eight two
five fifty nine forty nine. Ifyou have any questions, give me a
call. And I do thank youfor hanging in through the news and more

(26:10):
importantly for tuning in and having thisshow be really the most popular show on
the weekend. I can't thank youenough for just being there and listening and
hopefully you get a lot out ofit. My only goal is to kind
of you know enlighten you help youpoint you in the right direction. You

(26:32):
get one opportunity to retire. Idon't want you to make you reach that
retirement age and have to continue towork because you just weren't prepared. And
that's why I'm here. This ismy way of giving back to the community.
I've been doing the radio for twentyeight years. I love doing the
radio. I get energized by doingthe radio, and I would love to
talk to you. One eight hundredeight two five five, nine four nine.

(26:57):
Let's go back to the phone lines. We have David in Johnstown.
Hello David, and good morning.All right Stephen. Uh, this is
a lot of talk about the FED. How many votes are there and does
the chief operator? Does he geta vote? How many votes are there?

(27:17):
Yeah? Um, I think it'snineteen. Um I'm telling yep,
yep. And the uh the saidchairman get a vote too. Um,
we don't know. You know thatthey governors are you know, basically there's

(27:37):
seven governors appointed by the president.Each governor serves for fourteen years. Um,
you know, yep, and thenyou have the vice chair and everything.
Um, he probably does Yeah,I'm he drives it and you know
I'm not answering your question because youknow so. So the Federal Market Opened

(28:07):
Committee, which is basically, um, there's there's twelve members and that includes
seven members from the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank,
four of the remaining eleven Reserve Bankpresidents. And each of these twelve
members has a vote at the meetings. So you have twelve votes in the

(28:27):
f o MC. There you haveit. Okay, that's good. And
I don't know this this is thedeciding vote. I don't know, Yeah,
yeah, yeah, I don't know. And J Powell. J Powell
does have have a vote, andhe would Listen, this Federal Open Market

(28:52):
Committee basically, you know, theyset the monetary policy. Um, it's
it's they, you know, listen. I criticized them two years ago,
David, because they were they wereslow, you know, they were late
to the party, let's say,and we you know, I said on
this show, what's wrong with theFed? They don't realize that people are

(29:15):
paying more at the gas pump,in the supermarkets, they're paying more and
their heating bills, and they kindof I remember the White House, the
Treasury Secretary, the Fed Reserve,all of them said inflation was temporary,
trans to the Tory, and it'slike, are you crazy. Talk to
the everyday person that has less moneyin their pocket. That's what inflation is

(29:41):
about, when you're paying more forgoods and services. And then all of
a sudden they woke up. Maybethey listened to my show, I don't
know, but all of a suddenthey woke up and they said, wow,
inflation is real. And then thenbecause they were late to the party,
the FED has been talking tough forfifteen months now because they knew they

(30:02):
messed up. Their job is tobe proactive and over this this um inflationary
spell, they were reactive. Andthat's one reason, in my heart why
I believe the inflation rate went allthe way up to nine point one percent
because they didn't catch it soon enough. So now they've been so aggressive and

(30:23):
tough talking because they were there.They weren't going to mess this up.
And this is why they're still talkingtough. But now they're softening their their
their language. You know, JayPowell actually actually said, um, the
you know, the FED has donea good job, and they said he

(30:44):
said, this is his words.On Wednesday, he said the Fed's influential
staff. That's what he calls thefellow governor's influential staff. No longer was
forecasting, forecasting or recession to beginthis year as they had in March in
June, and instead was projecting anoticeable slowdown. I swear they're listening to

(31:06):
this show because I've been saying thisall along, and I you know,
it sounds like I'm patting myself onthe back, but I am patting myself
on the back. Even my officesays, Steve, you got this right.
You nailed this, and I didnail this. Um. But maybe
maybe Jay, Paul, Jay,if you're listening, call in. I'd
love I'd love to have you talkto the listening audings. Maybe he's listening.

(31:27):
Um. But no, in defenseof them, they they stuck to
their guns and they're sticking to theirguns still. And inflation has come down
from nine point one to three percent, and that's that's what they're supposed to
do, so they're they're not goingto let up yet. They're going to

(31:47):
make sure inflation stays low. Thisis why I think July's report's going to
be so so important, and I'mI'm hopeful it's going to be in the
two percent, David, great question. They thank you, Thank you all
right, you stay healthy, enjoythis Sunday. One eight hundred eight two
five five nine four nine. Yeah. I have to actually look that up

(32:12):
because you know, you just assumethat Jay Powell has a vote, right.
I would have bet money that hedid and he does. So there
there you have it. It's actuallya good question from David. We don't
get many questions that that aren't good. Yesterday we had a slew of great
questions. Zach was busy on theboard answering calls and you know, the

(32:35):
questions are are are good, andI love it when I have to,
maybe, you know, really digdeep into my um mind to come up
with the right answer. And ifI don't have the right answer, folks,
I'll ask you to just hold fora minute and I'll get the right
answer. Sometimes some of my colleaguesare listening and they know the answer and
they text me and they say,hey, Steve Um, you know this

(32:59):
is this is what it is.One eight hundred eight two five five nine
four nine. So you know,as I said, the FED kind of
likes that the economy is cooling offa little bit. You've got companies of
all sizes. They're hiring at aslower pace than last year, but we're
still adding folks in average of twohundred and seventy eight thousand jobs a month

(33:21):
through June. That's through June.Layoffs and most most industries remain rare.
There's not a lot of rayoffs,the rayoffs, layoffs. I'm getting layoffs
and rare mixed up. I'm tonguetied and I'm having coffee, so i
don't know why. So you know, layoffs are are are rare. Unemployment
rate is still near the half centurylow, and it's got the fed the

(33:46):
fuddled because how can this be?How can inflation come down without a deep
recession. But they're doing a goodjob, and that's that's what we want
to see. We want to seeinflation come down. We want to see
this play out the way it iswhere people don't have to lose their jobs.

(34:07):
And I'm hopeful, folks, I'mhopeful will continue. Consumers, you
know, they're listen. Two thirdsof the economy revolves around the consumer,
and consumers are less likely to makelarge spending cutbacks. They're not going to
cut back if they are able tokeep their jobs. And at the beginning

(34:29):
of the year, there were alot of economists they expected the FEDS aggressive
rate raising campaign to basically put usin a recession, and we don't have
a recession. And they're befuddled aswell, the economists. I think President
Truman said, show me I'm onehanded economists, because economists say on one
hand this, on the other handthat they never give it to you straight.

(34:52):
I have two economists that work forme. I say, give it
to me straight, guys, Pauloand Marty. They laugh at me.
I said, don't be you know, don't give me you know, two
handed. I want it straight.Give me one handed opinion. That's what
I want. And you know,we're not in a recession. And this

(35:13):
Friday we have July's jobs report willbe released and all eyes will be focused
on that. The Fed will belooking at that. And I'm pretty sure
we're still going to continue to addjobs. And if we don't add as
much jobs, that's okay, it'sit's all right. We don't need that
that fast paced. The key isthat we don't lose jobs. One eight

(35:35):
hundred and eight, two, five, five, nine, four nine.
Zach, what are you going totalk about today on that dynamic sports show
that you do. We're gonna talkabout sae Quon Barkley and the New York
Giants and if they're ever going toget it resolved in the future. Uh.
You know, I sat with umCoach Parcels yesterday at the track.
He's a dear friend of mine andyou know, they guy is such a

(36:00):
genuine, sincere individual. All hewants to do is do good by by
people and do good for people.He's really an amazing individual. I've gotten
to know him in a big wayand he's Um. He's just a good
guy and he's still got that twinklein his eye at eighty two years old.

(36:22):
But you know, speaking in theGiants, you can't speak of the
Giants and not think of Coach Parcels. Absolutely not. He's one of the
best in history. Yeah. Yeah, and he's a you know, he's
just a dynamic he as he saidto me, said, Steve, you
know what I've done well in life, and you know, all I want

(36:43):
to do is try to do goodfor people. And you know it,
really I said to him, Bill, I said, you're here man I
can look up to because that's whatI try to aspire to and to hear
you say that. You know,it's really a beautiful thing. And he
really is a a just a greatguy. And what's up about That's good?

(37:06):
Folks? Um if you want totune in to Zachs and his show
is really really a good show.Zach, how how can they do that
today at eleven am on Fox Sportsnine eighty ninety five point nine FM.
Thank you, Steven no way elevenam. Man, oh man, they
won't be able to. I meanthey're gonna be antsy waiting for that eleven

(37:27):
am time slot. Thanks Zach oneeight hundred and eight two five five nine
four nine. Zach is really he'sbeen with me for God So I've been
doing the show for twenty eight years. Zach's been with me for the you
know, a real long time,the most um out of any of my
producers. And he's just a greatguy. Zachs also another individual who does

(37:50):
does well um for people and doeswell for his family. And I got
a lot of respect for Zach.He's just a great guy. So if
you like sports, tune in oneeight hundred eight two fifty nine forty nine.
Let's talk to Carol and Schenectady.Hello, Carol Moren Steve UM,
I am looking for some advice ona mutual fund. It's UM in the

(38:15):
name of State Street Global Global Advisors. Yeah, and um, I what's
the name of the fund, Carol, State Street Global Advisors, Yeah,
that's the company. UM. What'sthe actual name of the of the fund?

(38:39):
Is it the State Street Defensive GlobalEquity? Is it? For work
in front of me? But that'salways yeah, Yeah, that's yeah,
that's the that's the company. Youknow, if you if you can get
me the statement and and you know, let me know what the exact name

(39:00):
of the mutual fund is, I'llbe able to help you. UM.
But there's there's more to it thanthat. You know, if by chance
it's it's the State Street Defensive UMGlobal Equity, you know it'll be you
know, it'll have some global assetsin it. You know how I say

(39:21):
often we have not owned international investmentsfor a long, long, long time.
I've coached and counseled my team,my investment team, especially that listen,
when you look at our returns andyou look at the you know,
the SMP over the last fifteen yearsup almost twelve percent a year, year

(39:42):
in, year out, whereas theinternational holdings are like three percent a year,
year in year out, and ourour just us equity sleeve is so
dynamic. I say, we don'tneed to own the rest of the world.
We can own companies in this greatcountry of ours and do just as

(40:04):
well. So take a look atit, Carol. And if you're in
a global holding, an international holding, we don't own it. It's just
our personal view at the moment.I'm not saying there's not a day when
we may not get in it.We may, we just don't own it
at the moment. Carol, callme back next week if you find this
statement, and I'll be able togive you more detailed information. Let's go

(40:25):
back to the phone lines we haveAlan in Glenville. Hello, Alan,
Steve, good morning, great show. Oh thank you, Alan, I
appreciate that. Yeah, a quickquestion, and maybe it's going to notice,
but gasoline prices have gone up aboutthirty cents a gallon and the last

(40:46):
four to six weeks. I justwant to get your thoughts on this.
If over the next three to sixmonths of gasoline prices get back up near
five dollars a gallon, does thatpose a problem for inflation. I'll let
you answer the question. Absolutely,it'll it'll, it'll really hurt, because

(41:08):
everybody needs gasoline, whether you driveto work or take a bus. Somehow,
some way, gasoline comes into that. Whether you get a pizza delivered
or you're using door dash, gasolinecomes into that. And let's hope gas
doesn't go back up to five dollarsa barrel. Listen, we had gas

(41:29):
down closer to two dollars a gallonjust a few years ago, and we
went all the way up to fivedollars a gallon. And as you said,
Alan, gas is slowly creeping up. If you look at the price
of crude oil, the low overthe last year was about sixty six dollars
a barrel, the high was ninetyeight dollars a barrel, and as we
sit here, it's at eighty almosteighty one dollars a barrel, just about

(41:53):
where it was at the beginning ofthe year. And that roller coaster ride
that oil is on, that's whyyou're seeing the price of gas go up
a little bit at the pumps.But I'm hopeful we're not going back to
the five dollars a gallon days.I mean, my heart eight. I
remember I would literally go to gasstations and look for people that you know,

(42:16):
if I saw somebody go in andjust put five dollars worth of gas
in their car, I knew theydidn't have enough money to fill up their
gas tank, and I would actuallypay for them to fill up their gas
tank, trying to give back alittle bit to those that I felt needed
it. And you know, listen, over the last few years, people
have had some hard, hard,hard times, especially when COVID hit us.

(42:39):
So I'm hoping we don't go backto five dollars a gallon. I
can't sit here and say we won't, but I'm hopeful that we won't.
And the reason why gas is upis because oil is up a little bit.
But oil absolutely plays a big partof inflation, and that's why they
look at the core. When theylook at core inflation, they look at

(43:01):
core inflation without using food and oilin there. They strip that out and
they look at how it is inflationwith the rest of what you know,
consumers may not need as much.Does that help answer your question? Allan?
It does. I was also alittle bit curious why oil has gone

(43:22):
up ten fifteen dollars a barrel overthe last months. Yeah, you know,
oil is driven. You know,you have to remember oil. Oil
is supplying demand first all. Andwith the supply, you have some you
know, listen OPEC decisions. Willthey cut back on production, will they

(43:46):
add to it? You'll have geopoliticalevents where there's instability, and the regions
of the world that produce oil,you have natural disasters that will create you
know, there's a lot that goesinto the price of oil. You have
government policies and regulations. Listen,were we were not reliant on foreign countries

(44:08):
just a few years ago for oil. That was a beautiful thing where we
didn't have to get oil from anywhereelse around the world. We had enough
oil in this great country of oursto provide what we are. And they're
trying to cut back on oil withyou know, hey, in New York
State and you can't even get innew homes gas range. That's going into

(44:34):
effects soon and they're going to outlawgas cars, gas Guslin cars. I
have an electric car, and Imade this statement this week Allen that if
more and more and more people haveelectric cars, you're going to see more
and more and more depths, moreand more and more accidents with individuals because

(44:55):
listen, let's base them. Peopleare crossing the street looking at their phone
and sometimes they'll hear a car coming. But electric cars, you don't hear
them coming. They just all ofa sudden, they're on you. And
the power of electric cars, andyou know, I'm not so sure when
you think about it, that goingall electric is the way to go,

(45:17):
at least with a gas gulls andcar you can hear it coming. And
I'm just talking, you know,the the accident rate. But that's just
my personal opinion. I do havea electric car, and they're fun to
drive, and they're faster than youknow. Mine has seven and fifty horsepower.
I'm telling you, Allen, Icould go, man oh man,

(45:38):
it's scary how fast these cars are. And you don't hear the engine,
so you don't even realize how fastyou're going. But oil plays a big
part of our economy and they're tryingto, you know, cut down the
consumption of oil by doing some ofthese crazy things. And I do think
these politicians are crazy. I thinkthey're right out of their mind dictating to

(46:01):
us this and that, just rightout of their mind. But you know,
listen, we elect them in theoffice, and unfortunately, the majority
of the people elect them in theoffice and we have to just you know,
live by what they what they say. Thanks for the phone call,
Ali Alt Halle Alan. Thanks forthe phone call. I truly appreciate it.

(46:23):
Folks, we're coming up to theend of the show. I can't
thank you enough for tuning in.I really can't. I hope, I
hope you go to our website Bouchetdot com. That's bouche Y. We
have a lot of good stuff there. You definitely want to look at our
latest webinar, which was just acouple of weeks ago, where Ryan and

(46:44):
Paolo did an investment update, andyou'll get a good feel for just how
we work with clients. In themeantime, you're listening to Let's Talk Money,
brought to you by Bouscheff and AsGroup, where we help our clients
prioritize their health while we manage theirwealth for life. Thank you for tuning
in. If you think we canbe of help to you, call my

(47:04):
office five one eight seven two zerothree three three three, or go to
our website Bouchet dot com. Havea great Sunday, See you next Saturday
at ten a m. Thanks folksfor tuning in.