Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
In. Good morning and welcome. You're listening to Let's Talk
Money here on eight ten and one O three one
wg Y. I'm Ryan Bouchet and I will be with
you for this next hour. Excited to be here and
appreciate all the listeners tuning in. Got a great show
on tap. We have Super Bowl Sunday is upon us.
(00:33):
Hopefully everyone's staying safe with the snow and the weather
out there, and hopefully it doesn't alter any big plans
for the day ahead, the big game ahead. I know
our producer Zach is excited with the Eagles back in
the Super Bowl. As a Giants fan, it's a little
bit hard to stomach. I'm sure there's a lot of
(00:56):
folks out there and you know, it's kind of a
tough Super Bowl. If you are, you know, from the Upstate,
maybe a Giants fan, you maybe have some Chiefs fatigue
at this point. But we also have one of our
arch rivals, the Eagles, in the super Bowl. But with
everything going on, should be a great game. I know
my kids and family are excited for it, so it
(01:18):
should be a great day. Great day to stay in,
stay warm and get ready for the big game. I'll
share the phone lines. Our phone lines are open one
eight hundred talk WGY. That's one eight hundred eight two
five five nine four nine. As they said, we have
a great show today, A lot to talk about. I
mean another you know, volatile, not in terrible way because
(01:43):
because the markets for the week essentially ended flat and
NASZAC was up a little, SMP was down just slightly
but relatively flat. But I think the day to day
you know, the head between headlines and everything else, pretty volatile.
We not much unlike last week as well. Right, last
(02:04):
week we started the week with everything about deep Seek.
If if you didn't follow that as closely or didn't
you know, read up on that big you know big
in a way kind of competitor, challenger to maybe some
of the AI tools that are out there today, maybe
more of the you know, day to day search like
a chat gbt uh, you know, a software like that.
(02:27):
But where it also impacted the market, right, is that
the understanding was that they're able to do a lot
more for a lot less. Right, maybe that impacts some
of the larger companies that are benefiting from this AI resurgence,
like a Navidia and their chips. Well, maybe we don't
need as many Navidia chips. They were sold off last
(02:50):
week and you saw some of the other you know,
companies that have a big stake within the ai UH
space maybe getting sold off a little bit with some recovery.
And then this week, right, we started the week with
tariff talk and that was huge. Over the weekend, we
had you know, Canada, Mexico, China on the crosshairs of
(03:14):
Trump's tariff plan, so a lot of headline volatility. So
we can talk about that, We can talk about you know,
how can you you know, whether it's protecting the portfolios
or thinking about portfolios, should we how much you know
of an impact could should this have? And how should
we be thinking about you know, just approaching our investments
(03:35):
and trying to think, you know, what really this looks
like if it plays out moving forward. You know, we've
talked a little bit in the past, and now that
we're a number of weeks into this administration, what does
a Trump two point zero playbook look like? And this
is still relevant today, right, I mean we you know,
I think some of the conversations we had with whether
(03:59):
Klim Prospects whoever it may be last year again, whether
you love him or hate them, and it seems like
it's you know, it's it's either on either end of
the spectrum. Let's say there's a lot of divisiveness I
think out in the political spectrum. But you know, what
we talked about last year, right, and a lot of
the headline risk and election years are all right, we're
going to see all this volatility because of the uncertainty
(04:21):
around elections. And yes, that was true, but we had
we had already had four years of a Trump administration.
We had seen what that looks like. Uh, we also
had you know, four years of a Biden administration and
you know, I know it transitioned to Kamala Harris, but
you know, we had seen that. So we had seen
both administrations in action in office. I think maybe took
(04:46):
away a little bit of the uncertainty of the election
last year. But you know, talking about a Trump two
point zero playbook, does this administration well these next four years,
you know, is it going to be similar to what
we saw in the past? Is there you know, some overlaps,
Is there some differences? I think there's certainly gonna be
a lot of similarities right in maybe some areas of
the market that you think may do well or could
(05:09):
you know, benefit from this type of administration, and other
areas that maybe aren't going to do as well. But
I think what's been you know, a parent in these
first few weeks especially, is the swiftness and how quick
this administration is going to work. They are not holding
back at all. They are getting right into it, and
(05:30):
you know, a lot of what they're doing is what
they said. But I do think some of it has
come as a surprise to many just how quickly, uh,
the administration has gotten to work. And you know, again,
is it going to be in the same effort as
as the last four years? Has it changed a little
bit because it's a second four year maybe not another
(05:53):
chance to be re elected. So you know, we'll talk
about that and in what areas of the market you know,
did well in the last minute and how that could
play itself out moving forward. We can talk about the economy.
You know, there's been a number of different reports, whether
it's on the consumer side, we're seeing some consumer sentiment
(06:13):
drop of late, and you know again that that actually
does type a lot into this new administration and what
we saw last weekend with some of the tariff talks.
I think that is driving a lot of where consumer
sentiment is, or we could talk about other economic areas. Right,
the GDP for fourth quarter still looking solid. We just
(06:34):
had January's jobs report come out on Friday. We can
talk about what that looks like. With the impact is
you know, are we still concerned talking about what the
FED may do? What's the fed outlook moving forward? I
know they met a couple of weeks ago, didn't make
(06:54):
any changes, but certainly I think the approach the FED
was taking at the end of twenty twenty four in
what they're doing heading into twenty twenty five has dramatically
changed from a few months ago. I think there was
the expectations of a lot more cuts into this year.
In some of those expectations have been certainly different. Right,
(07:17):
I don't think the expectation is as for as many cuts,
and a lot of that, again does have to do
with the current administration and some of their approach to
terrorists in the economy and whether that's going to be
good or bad. I think, you know, it kind of
depends on where inflation plays out and how inflation could
(07:37):
have an impact. You know, some other things I saw
an interesting article out of the Wall Street Journal earlier
this week. I just flagged and set it aside, but
just talking about, you know, where to park cash today,
and this is a conversation that you know, whether it's
it's cash, cash alternatives, or really in general kind of
(08:00):
fixed income. We're having a lot of these conversations with
clients because you know, and I had a conversation with
clients on Friday about this and just kind of thinking about,
you know, what we were doing in the portfolio over
the last you know, three to six months, and kind
of how where our focus has been when it comes
to managing our client's' assets and their wealth. And you know,
(08:22):
we're we're so comfortable in how we're set up right now,
especially on in equity side, and you know, it's it's
been over the last two three years. I think more
of the tactical changes and tactical nature of what we're
doing has been around fixed income and in the fixed
income side of the portfolio because there's been so many
(08:44):
changes in the market environment. There's been such volatility around
where you know, rates have been, where they're going, what's
impacting them, and so you know, this is an area
where again being a little bit more tactical, uh, saying
on top of it and being a little bit uh
(09:05):
you know, again, just just being proactive here has been
a you know, a real benefit, but it has been
an area where we have focused a lot. And so yeah,
three places get best returns on your cash, but you know,
sometimes it's cash, but also thinking about, hey, what is
the best approach and best way to be thinking about
uh this current interest rate environment and what should we
(09:27):
be doing right Where are the best places to get yield?
Capture that yield, and you know, what is the best
time frame? And there's no I think singular right answer
for many clients because every situation is different, but certainly
some opportunities out there if you're feeling stuck. So we
can talk about that, and then we'll get into, you
know a little bit of how what we're doing for
(09:48):
clients right now some areas of our focus outside just
the portfolios and some of our planning focus what we're
able to do for our clients on a planning perspective. Uh,
you know, we work a lot of tax into what
we do for clients, and obviously we're coming upon taxes
and so you may be thinking about taxes and and
(10:09):
what the impact has been there. There was another interesting
article too, and we can talk about you know, ways
or or the reason why. You know, we always think
about deferring taxes, right. We want to push taxes as
far off into the future as we can. We don't
want to pay taxes now. But you know, oftentimes there's
there's some great planning strategies and whether it's for individual
(10:31):
clients and in their direct situation or maybe more from
an estate planning and generational wealth planning perspective, uh, you
know where actually pushing ahead taxes and taking taxes maybe
a little bit sooner than expected in certain areas, right,
could be beneficial when you think about you know, high
(10:53):
level planning needs and when you think about you know,
lifetime tax spending, right, maybe spending a little bit more
today could benefit you down the road. And we can
talk about that, we can talk about some of the
other areas that we're looking at for clients. And you
know what great thing about our firm right now, and
(11:13):
I think what really sets us apart is, you know,
one are our independence in the ability to you know,
work with many different managers and companies to kind of
help find the best solution for our clients. And so
I know on our investment committee side, and I work
(11:34):
as our chief investment officer, So working with our investment
committee on a day to day, week to week basis,
we're doing a lot of work right now for clients
and talking about that volatile interest rate environment and being
able to go to market and look for solutions that
for clients that makes sense in their particular circumstances, their situations,
(11:56):
and you know, those solutions that we're able to come
to the table with. You know, again, at our size
and in capabilities now, you know, managing over a billion
dollars for our clients, you know, we have the size
and the scale to be able to do a lot
of really really you know, unique customized approaches for certain
client situations that can really help and I think really
(12:19):
help in like I said, the environment that we find
ourselves in today. So those are a number of topics
I want to talk about today. And if there's anything
that you want to jump in and talk to me,
if you have questions regarding the markets, the economy, you know,
maybe something that pertains to your financial situation, whether it's
retirement planning, you know, just overall general financial planning topics,
(12:44):
give me a call. Phone lines are open one eight
hundred talk wg Y. That's one eight hundred eight two
five five nine, four nine. We can touch upon any
topics that you may think are relevant, interesting pertain to
your situation. Like I said, oftentimes when a listener has
a question that I'm sure there's a number of other
(13:07):
listeners that are out there that may have a similar
or same type of situation or question on their minds.
So again, phone lines are open one eight hundred talk WGY.
That's one eight hundred eight two five five nine four nine.
So as we kicked off the show, talked just about
you know, the past week, we saw a lot of
ups and downs in the market. You know, the volatility,
(13:31):
you know, feels more headline driven. Right as we entered
into Monday, we entered at the start of the week, Uh,
there was so much being discussed in concern over this
approach to tariffs, and you know, I think rightfully so,
I think anybody who has kind of followed the approach
here and in you know there, I think we've seen
(13:52):
terrorifts be used in the past where and I think
on a shorter term basis, they can be beneficial. So
maybe on a you know, from the perspective of a
negotiation tactic, I think we've seen them be used in
a way that maybe is more constructive than not. I
(14:12):
think that was you know, it's this, I would say
from the point of the election back in November, even
heading into the election, because you know, the terrorists were
This is not a surprise, right this administration. President Trump
has been talking about this many times. They had laid
(14:33):
this out that this was going to be part of
their plan heading into their administration, so really didn't come
as a huge surprise. But I would say this is
probably the area that clients were most concerned with, even
you know, those Trump supporters and a lot of them
are you know, they do have concern over terrorists, right,
(14:55):
and we talked about the big impact of terrorists generally
speak tends to be in higher prices, right, And we're
just coming off of this, the last three four or
five years of high inflation, uh, you know, trying to
get prices under control, and this notion of uh, you know,
the potential for higher prices has been really you know
(15:19):
concerning for a lot of clients, a lot of prospects,
a lot of folks that we talked to on a
on a day to day basis, and understandably so, right,
And so I do think, you know, this has been
on the forefront of a lot of investors' minds, a
lot of consumers' minds. It's been something that has been concerning,
and so we've talked about it a lot. And you know,
(15:39):
my perspective on this because I think there's there's a
few ways. I do think, you know, there's an area where, hey,
we want to protect our national interest, right, we want
to protect some of the businesses in the US, you know,
And so I've viewed the administration. Trump's approached this as
more again as that negotiation tactic, right, maybe using it,
and we kind of saw it play out over the
(16:02):
weekend and into Monday into Monday night of hey, we
want more protection on our borders. This is you know,
if we can get that, maybe we can pull these
these terrorists back. And we already saw sort of the
delay nature of terrrists pushing them out thirty days for
both Mexico and Canada. Maybe getting what we wanted with
(16:24):
some more protections along the border. And I do think
a lot of these terrorff conversations are going to be
used more as negotiation tools, more as leverage to get
other things, because I mean, let's face it, I do
think the administration, maybe more so than than most UH
does measure itself on a financial standpoint. You think about
(16:47):
all the you know, bankers and folks with financial background
that are part of this administration as well, and you know,
part of the support team, part of tru Trump's inner circle.
So I do think a lot of their measuring stick
will be on right the economy, will be on the
stock market, and so I do think, you know, they
(17:08):
won't put anything in place that's going to be overly
damaging to our markets. I know they didn't make mention
of being able to you know, we may have to
withstand some initial pain to get through some of these times.
But I do think they're they're always thinking with the
back of their heads of how is the market going
to react? What is going to be the impact here
(17:31):
on stocks, on the economy, And I truly do think
that a lot of the tariff talk will be again
used as a negotiation tool and using it as leverage
to get maybe other things right. We saw it even
in the first administration. I think some of the tariff
talk was used to keep jobs in America, right. I
think there's some you know, at the time, some negotiations
(17:55):
with some of the car producers, right and trying to
keep factories and keeping jobs within the United States, and
in looking to put tariffs on some of these companies
if they weren't going to do so. And so again,
I do think we we look at it as a
as a leverage case, as a use of leverage and
a negotiation tool to help benefit you know, our desires,
(18:18):
the administration's wants and needs and in terms of what
they're looking for, and so that is kind of what
we saw play out earlier this week. But you know,
you look at some of the consumer sentiment, all of
a sudden, we have we have very uh, you know,
I would say divergence right in some different areas of
(18:38):
how consumers are are viewing the current market environment, how
they're positioned, what they're thinking. All of a sudden, we
do have a you know, a lot less confidence right
now in in the overall consumer sentiment. In A big
part of that is the inflation fears, right and worrying
about where inflation is going. All of a sudden, the
(19:00):
inflation expectations went from about three point three percent inflation
to all the way up to four point three in
just you know, a month's time, and so that's a
that's a huge, huge jump, and I do wonder how
that could play out as we think about again just
the market environment and what people are doing. If those
(19:22):
fears come to fruition or if they're truly concerned about that,
you know, do they pull back some of their risks
in the market. So again, our phone lines are open
one eight hundred talk WGY. That's one eight hundred, eight
two five, five, nine, four nine. We have Paul. Paul,
how are you this morning? Thank you for calling in.
Speaker 2 (19:40):
Good Ryan, Good Ryan. I follow this administration and investing
and I'm a CPA and so forth. In tax is
very extremely detailed, and they proposed something I carried interest.
So I own KKR for example. Don't you think or
will that if that pass tax it instead of allowing it,
(20:01):
and then it's a capital gain or something at the
end affect negatively all these companies like Apollo and KKR
and so forth that are publicly traded and whoever owns
oak Tree now, isn't that kind of something that would
hurt those companies. I'm still at a loss because I
read about it and I'm not sure.
Speaker 1 (20:21):
Yeah, it's a good question, I think, you know, from
my perspective and for listeners out there, you know, there's
this concept, especially in private equity called carry interests, and
so for a lot of the you know, the principles,
a lot of the you know, folks who work at
these private equity companies, they tend to share ownership in
(20:42):
these private equity funds. These funds are set up as partnerships,
and so the carried interest concept essentially, you know, at
a very high level is you know, there's a lot
of different income sources through the partnership, but when they
get their percent of you know, in different partnerships are
structured in different ways. You know, oftentimes you see in
(21:05):
hedge funds, private equity that they participate at you know,
twenty percent of the upside in gains, and so there's
a there's a big portion of you know, income that
flows through these partnerships into these shareholders that work for
these companies, and carried interest is a tax benefit where
you know, this income you know, can be taxed at
(21:28):
more favorable capital gains rates versus ordinary income rates, and
so there is, as Paul alluded to, a proposal out
there of maybe doing away with carried interests and so
having more of this income be taxed at ordinary levels.
And so I think some of the headlines, Paul, you're
seeing folks talk about, Okay, you know, investors are going
(21:50):
to be less likely to maybe want to invest in companies, right,
these private equity companies or these venture capital companies may
be less likely to want to invest in small companies
because now the tax benefit isn't going to be there.
I I don't think that's the case personally, I do think,
you know, I just think I think it's going to
(22:12):
impact maybe the the some of the individuals, right, they're
going to potentially pay more, But in terms of how
it hits the bottom lines of these companies, and you know,
is there still going to be demand? I don't. I
don't think it impacts the demand of doing deals even
if the taxes aren't as favorable, because there's still big winners.
(22:32):
Right from an investment standpoint, I do think there's still
the incentive to continue investing in these companies. So I
I do think it could impact the individuals, But Oh yeah,
I can hear you.
Speaker 3 (22:45):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (22:45):
Here's here's where I think you hit on something that
I got to think through because my own k K
are and I was going to look at who lever
botill create because I like Howard marks Uh. It's in fact,
it won't affect the deals and fix the big money
owners like Henry Kravis whoever's left there. Then they have
(23:07):
so much money that they're not all of a sudden
not going to do this because this is in their
DNA the do deal right right? Believe that?
Speaker 1 (23:14):
Okay, Paul, Sorry, I don't mean to cut you off.
We only have about fifteen seconds left before we have
to heartbreak for the news. I appreciate the goal. We'll
try to talk a little bit more about it on
the other side of the news break. So stay with us.
You're listening to Let's Talk Money here in eight ten
in one O three to one WGY and welcome back
(23:42):
to Let's Talk Money here in eight ten and one
O three to one WGY. I'm Ryan Bouche and I
am your host today. Thank you so much for tuning
in and being part of today's show. Our phone lines
are open. Would love to if you have any questions.
We'd love to have you jump in and ask it
as we kick off the second half to today's show.
(24:05):
One eight hundred talk WGY. That's one eight hundred eight
two five, five, nine, four nine.
Speaker 3 (24:12):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (24:12):
We had a great call from from Paul earlier asking
about carried interest. This is something that's been in the
headlines a little bit. We can, you know, talk more
about that, but we're going to go back to our
phone lines. We have Dave in Clifton Park. Dave, how
are you this morning?
Speaker 4 (24:29):
Good sir, how are you?
Speaker 1 (24:31):
I'm doing great, Thank you for the call, Yes, and.
Speaker 2 (24:34):
Thanks to your service.
Speaker 4 (24:35):
I have two things to get online.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
The first thing is next year will be retiring.
Speaker 4 (24:39):
I deliver to fine tension generally.
Speaker 2 (24:42):
How do you guide your customers?
Speaker 4 (24:44):
Do you tell them to start with Jordan's from the
roth Ira Ira or four fifty seven?
Speaker 2 (24:49):
First?
Speaker 4 (24:50):
What would your advice be?
Speaker 1 (24:52):
Yeah, it's a it's a great question. I think it
kind of comes down a little bit too. You know
how old the client may be, what the situation is,
and how their their accounts are broken down, and you
know it. There there's a lot of complexity that comes
into it, right, There's elements of current tax impact, right,
(25:13):
So we want to look at current tax rates and
where distributions from those different accounts, how they're going to
impact their tax brackets, how much they're paying in taxes.
You know, we may have to factor in maybe some
estate planning needs and issues, right, because there's differences of
inheriting IRA, you know, qualified type of account versus a
(25:36):
roth IRA for those beneficiaries. So we tend to start,
you know, especially you know, what we would call those
gap because for most clients who are retiring, we're dealing
with the gap years. And I use that term meaning
you know, somewhere they're retiring maybe around sixty five, sixty
six years old, and they have the gap years before
(25:56):
they're required to take distributions. Those are once they hit
age seventy three. So there's a lot of different I
think tax planning and tax strategy options that we tend
to look at. So, you know, it sort of depends
on the situation, but we want to we want to
limit maybe some tax exposure in the immediate term, but
(26:18):
we also want you know, to me like letting a
row continue to grow, not only for you know, maybe
yourself in your own personal situation, but if you have,
you know, down the road beneficiaries as well, the ross
are a great area to let continue to grow because
you get the most benefit from an account like that.
(26:38):
So yes, maybe you are taking early on more distributions
from a qualified account where you're actually being taxed on
those distributions. And you know, I said it earlier in
the show where we always try to we want to
always defer taxes, but sometimes paying taxes, you know, in
the immediate term, if done tax and strategically, could be
(27:02):
a good thing. So oftentimes we actually do like to
see some of those distributions in trying to control those
distributions coming from those taxable sources, because it does let
you grow some of those other areas of your portfolio,
like a wroth. Let them continue to grow and you
can benefit more on them down the road. Also, taking
(27:23):
from you know, let's say an IRA will then you know,
limit or bring down a little bit what your required
minimum distribution is at age seventy three, which sometimes you know,
if it's a large enough account, could push people into
a higher tax bracket. So if we can try to
control that in the immediate term, that's something we try
(27:44):
to look at as well.
Speaker 4 (27:46):
Okay, I understand that it makes close sense. I have
one other things, so it took your dad's advice on
side ahead.
Speaker 1 (27:54):
No, no, I was just going to say, you know,
there's a lot of factors that come into it. So
I think there's a lot that we we try to
plan around. It's it's definitely unique to everyone's situation, the
types of accounts they have, you know, their tax bracket,
size of accounts, and kind of an estate planning thought
process along it too. So there's many scenarios. But I
would say, you know, high level, it doesn't always hurt
(28:17):
you to, you know, take some of those taxes sooner
than later if it's done, like I said, kind of
in a strategic manner where you're not you're not putting
yourself into a bad situation from taxes, but it could
help down the road.
Speaker 4 (28:31):
Gotcha all right? Excellent, Thank you for advice, and obviously
sit down with you guys now. Two years I took
your dad's advice. I started a sandbox fund and it
was whatever, twenty thirty grand.
Speaker 1 (28:42):
Was a lot.
Speaker 4 (28:43):
Are you familiar with the Vanguard MGK fund.
Speaker 1 (28:49):
MGK? Which one is that? I mean, we we use
a lot of Vanguard. Which one is mg cat make
acap growth.
Speaker 4 (29:00):
Yes, yep, I tell.
Speaker 2 (29:04):
You to tell me that you think this is decent
two years it's gone up one hundred and sixty dollars
this year, would you say it's good?
Speaker 1 (29:12):
Yes? What price did a startup? But yeah, I mean
I would think the if it's a megacap growth fund,
I'm assuming it's most of its portfolio is priced into
the MAG seven And as we know, MAG seven has
been really the driver of this, uh this market the
last two years. So I'm guessing it's done great over
the last two years. Yeah, so I'm happy with it,
(29:36):
you know.
Speaker 4 (29:36):
Just but anyway, thank you for your service and your
dad and all you guys.
Speaker 3 (29:40):
I appreciate.
Speaker 1 (29:41):
Oh, Dave, I appreciate the call. I'm glad, glad you
put that to work. Yeah, No, it's a it's a
great point. I'm yeah, I'm looking at the fun now.
It's uh, you know, fourteen percent Apple, twelve percent, Microsoft,
eleven percent, N Video, Amazon, Meta, Tessa, and then Eli
Lily is the other big portion of that. So yeah,
great great fund holding.
Speaker 4 (30:02):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (30:03):
You know, this goes into a lot of our strategy
in terms of holding these big winners and actually have
some stats that I'll I'll follow up with on Dave.
So I I like that you kicked off the conversation
around this because I think it's there's some really interesting
things to look at, and I think, you know, this
is probably the biggest theme of the market right now, right,
(30:24):
and we're having a lot of conversations when it when
it comes to the you know, stocks and equity side
of portfolios right now, because right you have like the
MAG seven right and then maybe you add Eli Lilly
in terms of their growth that we've seen over the
last couple of years. But you know, if you're focused
on MAG seven in particular, that's been the the driver
(30:47):
of markets unquestionably over the last two years. It's been
you know, a huge, huge run up in the overall markets.
It's had a huge, huge impact in terms of the
you know, market dynamics and key drivers of what's going
on here with the AI theme and a lot of
these big companies being able to benefit from that. But
(31:10):
at the same time, we also have on the flip side, right,
we have a little bit of an expensive market today.
We have market concentration like we've never seen before. And
so you know how much of this is you know,
are we still excited about the MAG seven growth and
where it can go from here versus you know, what
are the concerns around that as well? And I think
(31:30):
to Dave's point, having a sandbox account to you maybe
take on more of these riskier types of holdings in
a you know, prudent fashion and manner. I do think
makes a lot of sense when you're thinking about it,
because you know, we may see some big winners and losers,
and we'll kind of go into some of the stats
that are around that that I think are are pretty interesting.
(31:51):
So again, go back. Our phone lines are open. Give
me a call if you have any questions. One eight
hundred talk WGY. That's one eight hundred eight two five, five, nine,
four nine. We had some great conversations around Paul's call
from earlier and then Dave getting us kicked off with
you know, some some tax and retirement planning and also uh,
(32:13):
you know, thinking about the markets and in this conversation
around uh, the MAG seven and large cap growth. So
we'll get back into that. We are going back to
our phone lines. We have Jonathan and Schenectady. Jonathan, good morning,
well and.
Speaker 2 (32:27):
You're curious about the.
Speaker 4 (32:30):
Boy what's it about a couple of years ago, and
it's up, it's up about.
Speaker 1 (32:38):
And yeah, no, I mean I think Ge has been
a uh it's been a great story of Reese. And
you know, the last couple of years we're seeing in
the market and you know, this kind of goes around,
you know, some of the you know, I would say
it ties in a little bit of the overall theme
even though it's a little bit of a different area
(33:00):
of the market. But you know, thinking about kind of
this AI push and some components that are benefiting from it.
But yeah, Ge, especially as it's spun off, right, we
had kind of the spin off of a number of
their different pieces of the business. You know, we have
kind of more of energy, more of air not aeronautics
(33:22):
portion of the company. But you know, ge Vernova in
particular has been a big winner of late uh. And
you know, we're seeing a lot of momentum in kind
of the energy side of the markets, right, and you know,
(33:44):
big part of that is we think about with AI,
we think about the big technology companies, but you're seeing
you know, and it's been a little bit a little
bit more volatility with the deep Seek news from two
weeks ago, also with some prices of utilities. But you're
seeing like utilities, infrastructure, you know, industrials doing really well
(34:04):
of late because with the AI push, not only are
these large cap growth technology companies going to benefit, but
they need we need to power these companies, we need
to power the AI revolution that we're seeing. So there's
different areas of the market, right, We've seen, you know,
the chips and semiconductors do really well, but utilities and
(34:27):
energy is another area that are a big, big benefactor
of late when it comes to this AI revolution and
this AI push, and so yeah, parts of GE have
done really well. I think the market like some of
the restructuring around what they were doing, sort of separating
some of the companies that are able to be a
(34:48):
little bit more nimble, right. You know, we've talked about,
you know, I'm sure we've talked about in the past,
you know, Jeffrey Immel and his tenure, you know, getting
into some bad contracts, bad area. You know, you think
about some of the energy contracts overseas with French company
and in some of the kind of faults through there.
But you know, I do think the latest reorganization and
(35:11):
restructuring of GE has been really beneficial to it, and
I think the market has really liked it. And then
on top of that, I think, you know, given some
of the areas that GE, uh you know, has exposure to,
especially from the energy, infrastructure industrial standpoint, you know, those
are areas of the market that have been doing well.
And not only that, but we have a lot of
(35:32):
government spending that's going into some of the you know,
industrial backbone of our economy and some areas that have
continued to do well. So I think they're benefiting from
a lot of different areas, Jonathan. So I appreciate the call.
Hopefully that that helps kind of, you know, get into
some talking points around you know, what you brought up
with GE. But yeah, it's been a it's been a
(35:52):
great success story I think of the last couple of years,
and especially for those local folks that have exposure to
it and have either worked there exposure through the market.
I always use that as an example, you know, talking
to clients about just kind of some of the emotional
attachment to certain stocks, right, and I think GE in particular,
(36:15):
especially for upstate New York and and for how many folks.
G had such a big impact on both in the
career and like I said, from a portfolio and investment standpoint,
G is a is a company we talk about often,
and like I said, we we have we use it
(36:35):
in a you know, behavioral finance perspective a lot of
times too, because, uh, GE was was such an emotional
attachment to so many people, and and talking about the
GE dividend of of you know, yesteryear, the impact you
know overall with just how well that stock did for
(36:58):
so many years, and then you know again some of
the negative impact that we saw, you know, through the
early two thousands and financial crisis and how how that
changed things and how maybe change people's perception of a
stock like that. So, yeah, we talk about GE a lot,
and like you said, especially from just that that behavioral component.
(37:23):
I think, uh, behavioral finance has been so huge in
our industry, uh for for you know, especially of late
that a lot of our conversations to try to you know,
just just better understanding our mindset around the markets, our
mindsets around portfolios, and how we should be kind of
(37:44):
thinking about day to day headlines or just day to
day movements in the portfolio. The behavioral finance perspective is
so so helpful, and actually we'll we'll talk a little
bit about that. And we had an interesting conversation with
some of our fixed income partners that that we work with,
(38:07):
and it was really interesting, and so I'll talk about
that as well. You know, we'll we'll open up the
phone lines as well if you do have questions we
have about you know, maybe ten minutes left today's show,
we've had some great questions we have, Paul, Dave Jonathan,
Thank you guys for all calling in. We still have
ten minutes if anyone's out there that does have questions.
(38:27):
One eight hundred talk WGY. That's one eight hundred eight
two five, five, nine, four nine. We think about you know,
behavioral finance. You know something that was so interesting. We're working,
like I said, we work. We're so fortunate and uh,
we're doing a lot more work in some different areas, right.
You know, we talk about our portfolios, our ETF approach
(38:52):
to portfolio management, having the consistency, the capabilities, our trading platform,
our trading and operations team, how integral they are and
to our overall success and managing portfolios and all the
important work they do in all of us meeting on
a week to week basis as part of our investment
(39:12):
committee too, you know, help maintain portfolios, help implement portfolio ideas.
But like I said, at our size, in our independence
as a registered investment advisor, we are so so fortunate
right now that we're just able to offer so much
capabilities to our clients in different ways, whether it's tax
(39:34):
planning and financial planning, and you know the softwares and
tools that we're able to use there, and you know
the depth that we're able to go into with these
conversations with our clients on a planning perspective, and we're
doing so much planning work with clients right now and
really seeing the benefit of all that work that we've done.
(39:54):
It's it's great to see. But on the investment side
as well, right we're able to do a lot lot
with our capabilities right now, and so we're having a
lot of conversations around Okay, where you know this fixed
income environment today, right, I think so many investors sort
of got pushed away from fixed income in twenty twenty
two where we had both stocks sell off, rates were
(40:17):
going up, and so bonds sold off as well, right,
bonds are always meant to be that you know, ballast
in a volatile market to kind of offset the volatility
of equities. And we saw both equities and fixed income
come down at the same time. So a lot of
investors kind of shrugged and pushed aside fixed income and wanting,
you know, different solutions. Whereas you know today's environment, you know,
(40:39):
still the ten year treasuries over four and a half percent,
we're at, you know, almost twenty year highs in a
from a interest rate environment perspective and yield perspective, I mean,
right now, fixed income, there's some great options out there,
whether again you're just adding some you know, fixed income
to fully if you're high income earner. We're having great
(41:02):
conversations with some of our muni municipal partners that are
out there and looking at our tax equivalent yields that
are you know, in some situations hovering over seven percent
depending on you know, where you want to be and
you know you have to be in that highest income bracket.
So you know, for those high income earners. But in
New York State, you think about your FED tax rates,
(41:25):
your New York State tax rates. Man, when you're when
you're looking at where some of the muni market is
right now, depending on you know, where you want to
be on a yield curve perspective and duration perspective. But
we're looking at you know, high sixes to mid to
high seven percent tax equivalent yields in these areas of
the market. It's a great time to be looking at
(41:45):
fixed income and take advantage of fixed income. But you know,
the behavioral side of investors, because we were so scared
away from twenty twenty two having these conversations with these
uh fixed income partners, They're saying, there's that market is
still so slow for people to get in. You were
getting more people investing in this area when when rates
were at one point five versus four point five today.
(42:07):
So it's just interesting, you know, you have a you know,
have bad year like twenty twenty year two, and what
type of impact that has moving forward. So I just
want to throw that out there. I thought it was
super interesting and kind of falls into that behavioral finance conversation.
So we're gonna go back to the phone lines again.
Our phone lines are open one eight hundred talk WGY.
That's one eight hundred eight two five, five, nine, four nine.
(42:30):
We have Rick in half moon. Rick, thank you for
sticking with us. How are you today?
Speaker 4 (42:35):
Okay, fine, you guys, look at I'm going to the other
end of the spectrum. I'm hearing a lot about crypto,
especially of the new president. And where's your guys position
on man. I never really hear you guys talking about
crypto and crypto currency.
Speaker 1 (42:51):
Yeah, no, it's a it's thank you for asking about it. No,
I mean, I think crypto is an area of the
market really, you know, when you take a step back,
crypto is essentially you know, more or less right just
in terms of how it moves and kind of how
you see it react in the market. It's basically leverage
technology type of movement. So you know, it has benefited
(43:14):
investors dramatically. We don't invest in it in our overall portfolios,
you know, I think it's you know, for me, crypto,
I still struggle with the overall use case, you know,
the underlying really intrinsic value of it all. But you
know it's not to be you know, discounted that it
(43:35):
has grown tremendously and really gone up and benefited a
lot of investors, and so you know, to me, it's
something that again if you want to participate in and
take on that risk, because you know, we saw you know,
in years past, whether it's a year like twenty twenty
two or even before there this is a super volatile
asset class. Even if you know it's it's coming to
(43:56):
favor with this administration, I think that is a huge
ben and fit for it. But there are still a
lot of areas of the market, whether it's you know,
these meme coins, some of these other tokens that come
out that I really think you need to be you know,
careful of, you know, those in particular, I think, you know,
you need to be prepared that could go to zero.
(44:16):
I think, you know, kind of the big ones like
a bitcoin ethereum now that you can get exposure to
it in an ETF form, which I think is beneficial
if you do want that exposure, but you know, it
really should be you know, two to three percent of
the portfolio, certainly under five percent, but again, you know
it it don't want to dismiss the fact that some
people have done, you know, made tremendous wealth within it
(44:40):
as you see it movement up over the last few years.
So I think it's just something to keep in perspective,
it's really, you know, just a leverage technology type of
alternative holding in investment. And I do think if we
see the overall market sort of pull back or if
we get any volatility there, we certainly will see that
in the crypto market. Well, So hopefully that that helps Rick.
(45:02):
I think, like I said, that's something that we're really
active in. But obviously for for investors, I think it's
important to understand the implications of it and and do
so in it in a prudent fashion.
Speaker 4 (45:15):
Can fin right Another question?
Speaker 1 (45:18):
Uh sure?
Speaker 4 (45:20):
Yeah, Well you just said I was gonna say, if
I wanted to put on my sandbox, where would I go?
I just heard you say bitcoin ETF or do I
go to coin base just to dabble in it?
Speaker 1 (45:31):
I think probably the best if you're looking to dabble
in it. My my recommendation would be the ETF route
now because now that it's actual in ETF with underlying holdings,
the price is much more reflective of the price of
bitcoin before they were held in trusts. Now, with like
the the spot ETF, like ib I T from black Rock, again,
(45:53):
it trades along the price of bitcoin versus having a
nav spread that they had before in the like the
Gray Scale trust. So I do think the ETF is
probably the most approachable, easiest way to get access to
it versus going to like a you know, crypto specific
type of custodian. I think just holding it into your
(46:15):
normal custodian is the best way to access it today.
Speaker 4 (46:20):
Okay, thank you for that advice.
Speaker 1 (46:22):
All right, Rick, thank you for the call. Appreciate it.
We have a few minutes left. I will try to go.
We have Lisa and delmar Lisa. I think we only
have two or three minutes left, so if you have
a quick question, we'll try to answer before the show ends.
Speaker 3 (46:35):
That's a quick question is I have a lot of
cash available, and I've been meeting with some different advisors,
just interviewing them and trying to figure out what my
plan should be. And I get completely different approaches discussed
with me from each of the advisors or companies. And
my last meeting was Vanguard. They were recommending I put
(46:56):
all my money into four different funds and you know,
not to worry about the tenaxes really because it's better
to be making money on the money then, you know.
So my question to you is, I don't want to
pay a lot of taxes on my after tax money investments,
and I was wondering if you have any suggestions or
just comment on that my my nervousness about paying tons
(47:17):
of taxes.
Speaker 1 (47:19):
Yeah, no, I appreciate you.
Speaker 4 (47:20):
Know.
Speaker 1 (47:20):
We have a ton of clients and taxes oftentimes are
kind of the driving factor of a lot of their
decision making process. I only have twenty five seconds left
at LISTA. If you want to give us a call
at the office this week, be happy to kind of
talk through your situations. It's hard to know exactly what
it is, but you can call us at seven two
zero three three three three. Would love to talk through it.
There's so much to kind of consider and think about there,
(47:43):
but I appreciate the call. Please give our offices a
call if we can help in any way, And thank
you to everyone listening. We'll be back next week. Let's
talk money here on A ten one oh three one
WGY
In. Good morning and welcome. You're listening to Let's Talk
Money here on eight ten and one O three one
wg Y. I'm Ryan Bouchet and I will be with
you for this next hour. Excited to be here and
appreciate all the listeners tuning in. Got a great show
on tap. We have Super Bowl Sunday is upon us.
(00:33):
Hopefully everyone's staying safe with the snow and the weather
out there, and hopefully it doesn't alter any big plans
for the day ahead, the big game ahead. I know
our producer Zach is excited with the Eagles back in
the Super Bowl. As a Giants fan, it's a little
bit hard to stomach. I'm sure there's a lot of
(00:56):
folks out there and you know, it's kind of a
tough Super Bowl. If you are, you know, from the Upstate,
maybe a Giants fan, you maybe have some Chiefs fatigue
at this point. But we also have one of our
arch rivals, the Eagles, in the super Bowl. But with
everything going on, should be a great game. I know
my kids and family are excited for it, so it
(01:18):
should be a great day. Great day to stay in,
stay warm and get ready for the big game. I'll
share the phone lines. Our phone lines are open one
eight hundred talk WGY. That's one eight hundred eight two
five five nine four nine. As they said, we have
a great show today, A lot to talk about. I
mean another you know, volatile, not in terrible way because
(01:43):
because the markets for the week essentially ended flat and
NASZAC was up a little, SMP was down just slightly
but relatively flat. But I think the day to day
you know, the head between headlines and everything else, pretty volatile.
We not much unlike last week as well. Right, last
(02:04):
week we started the week with everything about deep Seek.
If if you didn't follow that as closely or didn't
you know, read up on that big you know big
in a way kind of competitor, challenger to maybe some
of the AI tools that are out there today, maybe
more of the you know, day to day search like
a chat gbt uh, you know, a software like that.
(02:27):
But where it also impacted the market, right, is that
the understanding was that they're able to do a lot
more for a lot less. Right, maybe that impacts some
of the larger companies that are benefiting from this AI resurgence,
like a Navidia and their chips. Well, maybe we don't
need as many Navidia chips. They were sold off last
(02:50):
week and you saw some of the other you know,
companies that have a big stake within the ai UH
space maybe getting sold off a little bit with some recovery.
And then this week, right, we started the week with
tariff talk and that was huge. Over the weekend, we
had you know, Canada, Mexico, China on the crosshairs of
(03:14):
Trump's tariff plan, so a lot of headline volatility. So
we can talk about that, We can talk about you know,
how can you you know, whether it's protecting the portfolios
or thinking about portfolios, should we how much you know
of an impact could should this have? And how should
we be thinking about you know, just approaching our investments
(03:35):
and trying to think, you know, what really this looks
like if it plays out moving forward. You know, we've
talked a little bit in the past, and now that
we're a number of weeks into this administration, what does
a Trump two point zero playbook look like? And this
is still relevant today, right, I mean we you know,
I think some of the conversations we had with whether
(03:59):
Klim Prospects whoever it may be last year again, whether
you love him or hate them, and it seems like
it's you know, it's it's either on either end of
the spectrum. Let's say there's a lot of divisiveness I
think out in the political spectrum. But you know, what
we talked about last year, right, and a lot of
the headline risk and election years are all right, we're
going to see all this volatility because of the uncertainty
(04:21):
around elections. And yes, that was true, but we had
we had already had four years of a Trump administration.
We had seen what that looks like. Uh, we also
had you know, four years of a Biden administration and
you know, I know it transitioned to Kamala Harris, but
you know, we had seen that. So we had seen
both administrations in action in office. I think maybe took
(04:46):
away a little bit of the uncertainty of the election
last year. But you know, talking about a Trump two
point zero playbook, does this administration well these next four years,
you know, is it going to be similar to what
we saw in the past? Is there you know, some overlaps,
Is there some differences? I think there's certainly gonna be
a lot of similarities right in maybe some areas of
the market that you think may do well or could
(05:09):
you know, benefit from this type of administration, and other
areas that maybe aren't going to do as well. But
I think what's been you know, a parent in these
first few weeks especially, is the swiftness and how quick
this administration is going to work. They are not holding
back at all. They are getting right into it, and
(05:30):
you know, a lot of what they're doing is what
they said. But I do think some of it has
come as a surprise to many just how quickly, uh,
the administration has gotten to work. And you know, again,
is it going to be in the same effort as
as the last four years? Has it changed a little
bit because it's a second four year maybe not another
(05:53):
chance to be re elected. So you know, we'll talk
about that and in what areas of the market you know,
did well in the last minute and how that could
play itself out moving forward. We can talk about the economy.
You know, there's been a number of different reports, whether
it's on the consumer side, we're seeing some consumer sentiment
(06:13):
drop of late, and you know again that that actually
does type a lot into this new administration and what
we saw last weekend with some of the tariff talks.
I think that is driving a lot of where consumer
sentiment is, or we could talk about other economic areas. Right,
the GDP for fourth quarter still looking solid. We just
(06:34):
had January's jobs report come out on Friday. We can
talk about what that looks like. With the impact is
you know, are we still concerned talking about what the
FED may do? What's the fed outlook moving forward? I
know they met a couple of weeks ago, didn't make
(06:54):
any changes, but certainly I think the approach the FED
was taking at the end of twenty twenty four in
what they're doing heading into twenty twenty five has dramatically
changed from a few months ago. I think there was
the expectations of a lot more cuts into this year.
In some of those expectations have been certainly different. Right,
(07:17):
I don't think the expectation is as for as many cuts,
and a lot of that, again does have to do
with the current administration and some of their approach to
terrorists in the economy and whether that's going to be
good or bad. I think, you know, it kind of
depends on where inflation plays out and how inflation could
(07:37):
have an impact. You know, some other things I saw
an interesting article out of the Wall Street Journal earlier
this week. I just flagged and set it aside, but
just talking about, you know, where to park cash today,
and this is a conversation that you know, whether it's
it's cash, cash alternatives, or really in general kind of
(08:00):
fixed income. We're having a lot of these conversations with
clients because you know, and I had a conversation with
clients on Friday about this and just kind of thinking about,
you know, what we were doing in the portfolio over
the last you know, three to six months, and kind
of how where our focus has been when it comes
to managing our client's' assets and their wealth. And you know,
(08:22):
we're we're so comfortable in how we're set up right now,
especially on in equity side, and you know, it's it's
been over the last two three years. I think more
of the tactical changes and tactical nature of what we're
doing has been around fixed income and in the fixed
income side of the portfolio because there's been so many
(08:44):
changes in the market environment. There's been such volatility around
where you know, rates have been, where they're going, what's
impacting them, and so you know, this is an area
where again being a little bit more tactical, uh, saying
on top of it and being a little bit uh
(09:05):
you know, again, just just being proactive here has been
a you know, a real benefit, but it has been
an area where we have focused a lot. And so yeah,
three places get best returns on your cash, but you know,
sometimes it's cash, but also thinking about, hey, what is
the best approach and best way to be thinking about
uh this current interest rate environment and what should we
(09:27):
be doing right Where are the best places to get yield?
Capture that yield, and you know, what is the best
time frame? And there's no I think singular right answer
for many clients because every situation is different, but certainly
some opportunities out there if you're feeling stuck. So we
can talk about that, and then we'll get into, you
know a little bit of how what we're doing for
(09:48):
clients right now some areas of our focus outside just
the portfolios and some of our planning focus what we're
able to do for our clients on a planning perspective. Uh,
you know, we work a lot of tax into what
we do for clients, and obviously we're coming upon taxes
and so you may be thinking about taxes and and
(10:09):
what the impact has been there. There was another interesting
article too, and we can talk about you know, ways
or or the reason why. You know, we always think
about deferring taxes, right. We want to push taxes as
far off into the future as we can. We don't
want to pay taxes now. But you know, oftentimes there's
there's some great planning strategies and whether it's for individual
(10:31):
clients and in their direct situation or maybe more from
an estate planning and generational wealth planning perspective, uh, you
know where actually pushing ahead taxes and taking taxes maybe
a little bit sooner than expected in certain areas, right,
could be beneficial when you think about you know, high
(10:53):
level planning needs and when you think about you know,
lifetime tax spending, right, maybe spending a little bit more
today could benefit you down the road. And we can
talk about that, we can talk about some of the
other areas that we're looking at for clients. And you
know what great thing about our firm right now, and
(11:13):
I think what really sets us apart is, you know,
one are our independence in the ability to you know,
work with many different managers and companies to kind of
help find the best solution for our clients. And so
I know on our investment committee side, and I work
(11:34):
as our chief investment officer, So working with our investment
committee on a day to day, week to week basis,
we're doing a lot of work right now for clients
and talking about that volatile interest rate environment and being
able to go to market and look for solutions that
for clients that makes sense in their particular circumstances, their situations,
(11:56):
and you know, those solutions that we're able to come
to the table with. You know, again, at our size
and in capabilities now, you know, managing over a billion
dollars for our clients, you know, we have the size
and the scale to be able to do a lot
of really really you know, unique customized approaches for certain
client situations that can really help and I think really
(12:19):
help in like I said, the environment that we find
ourselves in today. So those are a number of topics
I want to talk about today. And if there's anything
that you want to jump in and talk to me,
if you have questions regarding the markets, the economy, you know,
maybe something that pertains to your financial situation, whether it's
retirement planning, you know, just overall general financial planning topics,
(12:44):
give me a call. Phone lines are open one eight
hundred talk wg Y. That's one eight hundred eight two
five five nine, four nine. We can touch upon any
topics that you may think are relevant, interesting pertain to
your situation. Like I said, oftentimes when a listener has
a question that I'm sure there's a number of other
(13:07):
listeners that are out there that may have a similar
or same type of situation or question on their minds.
So again, phone lines are open one eight hundred talk WGY.
That's one eight hundred eight two five five nine four nine.
So as we kicked off the show, talked just about
you know, the past week, we saw a lot of
ups and downs in the market. You know, the volatility,
(13:31):
you know, feels more headline driven. Right as we entered
into Monday, we entered at the start of the week, Uh,
there was so much being discussed in concern over this
approach to tariffs, and you know, I think rightfully so,
I think anybody who has kind of followed the approach
here and in you know there, I think we've seen
(13:52):
terrorifts be used in the past where and I think
on a shorter term basis, they can be beneficial. So
maybe on a you know, from the perspective of a
negotiation tactic, I think we've seen them be used in
a way that maybe is more constructive than not. I
(14:12):
think that was you know, it's this, I would say
from the point of the election back in November, even
heading into the election, because you know, the terrorists were
This is not a surprise, right this administration. President Trump
has been talking about this many times. They had laid
(14:33):
this out that this was going to be part of
their plan heading into their administration, so really didn't come
as a huge surprise. But I would say this is
probably the area that clients were most concerned with, even
you know, those Trump supporters and a lot of them
are you know, they do have concern over terrorists, right,
(14:55):
and we talked about the big impact of terrorists generally
speak tends to be in higher prices, right, And we're
just coming off of this, the last three four or
five years of high inflation, uh, you know, trying to
get prices under control, and this notion of uh, you know,
the potential for higher prices has been really you know
(15:19):
concerning for a lot of clients, a lot of prospects,
a lot of folks that we talked to on a
on a day to day basis, and understandably so, right,
And so I do think, you know, this has been
on the forefront of a lot of investors' minds, a
lot of consumers' minds. It's been something that has been concerning,
and so we've talked about it a lot. And you know,
(15:39):
my perspective on this because I think there's there's a
few ways. I do think, you know, there's an area where, hey,
we want to protect our national interest, right, we want
to protect some of the businesses in the US, you know,
And so I've viewed the administration. Trump's approached this as
more again as that negotiation tactic, right, maybe using it,
and we kind of saw it play out over the
(16:02):
weekend and into Monday into Monday night of hey, we
want more protection on our borders. This is you know,
if we can get that, maybe we can pull these
these terrorists back. And we already saw sort of the
delay nature of terrrists pushing them out thirty days for
both Mexico and Canada. Maybe getting what we wanted with
(16:24):
some more protections along the border. And I do think
a lot of these terrorff conversations are going to be
used more as negotiation tools, more as leverage to get
other things, because I mean, let's face it, I do
think the administration, maybe more so than than most UH
does measure itself on a financial standpoint. You think about
(16:47):
all the you know, bankers and folks with financial background
that are part of this administration as well, and you know,
part of the support team, part of tru Trump's inner circle.
So I do think a lot of their measuring stick
will be on right the economy, will be on the
stock market, and so I do think, you know, they
(17:08):
won't put anything in place that's going to be overly
damaging to our markets. I know they didn't make mention
of being able to you know, we may have to
withstand some initial pain to get through some of these times.
But I do think they're they're always thinking with the
back of their heads of how is the market going
to react? What is going to be the impact here
(17:31):
on stocks, on the economy, And I truly do think
that a lot of the tariff talk will be again
used as a negotiation tool and using it as leverage
to get maybe other things right. We saw it even
in the first administration. I think some of the tariff
talk was used to keep jobs in America, right. I
think there's some you know, at the time, some negotiations
(17:55):
with some of the car producers, right and trying to
keep factories and keeping jobs within the United States, and
in looking to put tariffs on some of these companies
if they weren't going to do so. And so again,
I do think we we look at it as a
as a leverage case, as a use of leverage and
a negotiation tool to help benefit you know, our desires,
(18:18):
the administration's wants and needs and in terms of what
they're looking for, and so that is kind of what
we saw play out earlier this week. But you know,
you look at some of the consumer sentiment, all of
a sudden, we have we have very uh, you know,
I would say divergence right in some different areas of
(18:38):
how consumers are are viewing the current market environment, how
they're positioned, what they're thinking. All of a sudden, we
do have a you know, a lot less confidence right
now in in the overall consumer sentiment. In A big
part of that is the inflation fears, right and worrying
about where inflation is going. All of a sudden, the
(19:00):
inflation expectations went from about three point three percent inflation
to all the way up to four point three in
just you know, a month's time, and so that's a
that's a huge, huge jump, and I do wonder how
that could play out as we think about again just
the market environment and what people are doing. If those
(19:22):
fears come to fruition or if they're truly concerned about that,
you know, do they pull back some of their risks
in the market. So again, our phone lines are open
one eight hundred talk WGY. That's one eight hundred, eight
two five, five, nine, four nine. We have Paul. Paul,
how are you this morning? Thank you for calling in.
Speaker 2 (19:40):
Good Ryan, Good Ryan. I follow this administration and investing
and I'm a CPA and so forth. In tax is
very extremely detailed, and they proposed something I carried interest.
So I own KKR for example. Don't you think or
will that if that pass tax it instead of allowing it,
(20:01):
and then it's a capital gain or something at the
end affect negatively all these companies like Apollo and KKR
and so forth that are publicly traded and whoever owns
oak Tree now, isn't that kind of something that would
hurt those companies. I'm still at a loss because I
read about it and I'm not sure.
Speaker 1 (20:21):
Yeah, it's a good question, I think, you know, from
my perspective and for listeners out there, you know, there's
this concept, especially in private equity called carry interests, and
so for a lot of the you know, the principles,
a lot of the you know, folks who work at
these private equity companies, they tend to share ownership in
(20:42):
these private equity funds. These funds are set up as partnerships,
and so the carried interest concept essentially, you know, at
a very high level is you know, there's a lot
of different income sources through the partnership, but when they
get their percent of you know, in different partnerships are
structured in different ways. You know, oftentimes you see in
(21:05):
hedge funds, private equity that they participate at you know,
twenty percent of the upside in gains, and so there's
a there's a big portion of you know, income that
flows through these partnerships into these shareholders that work for
these companies, and carried interest is a tax benefit where
you know, this income you know, can be taxed at
(21:28):
more favorable capital gains rates versus ordinary income rates, and
so there is, as Paul alluded to, a proposal out
there of maybe doing away with carried interests and so
having more of this income be taxed at ordinary levels.
And so I think some of the headlines, Paul, you're
seeing folks talk about, Okay, you know, investors are going
(21:50):
to be less likely to maybe want to invest in companies, right,
these private equity companies or these venture capital companies may
be less likely to want to invest in small companies
because now the tax benefit isn't going to be there.
I I don't think that's the case personally, I do think,
you know, I just think I think it's going to
(22:12):
impact maybe the the some of the individuals, right, they're
going to potentially pay more, But in terms of how
it hits the bottom lines of these companies, and you know,
is there still going to be demand? I don't. I
don't think it impacts the demand of doing deals even
if the taxes aren't as favorable, because there's still big winners.
(22:32):
Right from an investment standpoint, I do think there's still
the incentive to continue investing in these companies. So I
I do think it could impact the individuals, But Oh yeah,
I can hear you.
Speaker 3 (22:45):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (22:45):
Here's here's where I think you hit on something that
I got to think through because my own k K
are and I was going to look at who lever
botill create because I like Howard marks Uh. It's in fact,
it won't affect the deals and fix the big money
owners like Henry Kravis whoever's left there. Then they have
(23:07):
so much money that they're not all of a sudden
not going to do this because this is in their
DNA the do deal right right? Believe that?
Speaker 1 (23:14):
Okay, Paul, Sorry, I don't mean to cut you off.
We only have about fifteen seconds left before we have
to heartbreak for the news. I appreciate the goal. We'll
try to talk a little bit more about it on
the other side of the news break. So stay with us.
You're listening to Let's Talk Money here in eight ten
in one O three to one WGY and welcome back
(23:42):
to Let's Talk Money here in eight ten and one
O three to one WGY. I'm Ryan Bouche and I
am your host today. Thank you so much for tuning
in and being part of today's show. Our phone lines
are open. Would love to if you have any questions.
We'd love to have you jump in and ask it
as we kick off the second half to today's show.
(24:05):
One eight hundred talk WGY. That's one eight hundred eight
two five, five, nine, four nine.
Speaker 3 (24:12):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (24:12):
We had a great call from from Paul earlier asking
about carried interest. This is something that's been in the
headlines a little bit. We can, you know, talk more
about that, but we're going to go back to our
phone lines. We have Dave in Clifton Park. Dave, how
are you this morning?
Speaker 4 (24:29):
Good sir, how are you?
Speaker 1 (24:31):
I'm doing great, Thank you for the call, Yes, and.
Speaker 2 (24:34):
Thanks to your service.
Speaker 4 (24:35):
I have two things to get online.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
The first thing is next year will be retiring.
Speaker 4 (24:39):
I deliver to fine tension generally.
Speaker 2 (24:42):
How do you guide your customers?
Speaker 4 (24:44):
Do you tell them to start with Jordan's from the
roth Ira Ira or four fifty seven?
Speaker 2 (24:49):
First?
Speaker 4 (24:50):
What would your advice be?
Speaker 1 (24:52):
Yeah, it's a it's a great question. I think it
kind of comes down a little bit too. You know
how old the client may be, what the situation is,
and how their their accounts are broken down, and you
know it. There there's a lot of complexity that comes
into it, right, There's elements of current tax impact, right,
(25:13):
So we want to look at current tax rates and
where distributions from those different accounts, how they're going to
impact their tax brackets, how much they're paying in taxes.
You know, we may have to factor in maybe some
estate planning needs and issues, right, because there's differences of
inheriting IRA, you know, qualified type of account versus a
(25:36):
roth IRA for those beneficiaries. So we tend to start,
you know, especially you know, what we would call those
gap because for most clients who are retiring, we're dealing
with the gap years. And I use that term meaning
you know, somewhere they're retiring maybe around sixty five, sixty
six years old, and they have the gap years before
(25:56):
they're required to take distributions. Those are once they hit
age seventy three. So there's a lot of different I
think tax planning and tax strategy options that we tend
to look at. So, you know, it sort of depends
on the situation, but we want to we want to
limit maybe some tax exposure in the immediate term, but
(26:18):
we also want you know, to me like letting a
row continue to grow, not only for you know, maybe
yourself in your own personal situation, but if you have,
you know, down the road beneficiaries as well, the ross
are a great area to let continue to grow because
you get the most benefit from an account like that.
(26:38):
So yes, maybe you are taking early on more distributions
from a qualified account where you're actually being taxed on
those distributions. And you know, I said it earlier in
the show where we always try to we want to
always defer taxes, but sometimes paying taxes, you know, in
the immediate term, if done tax and strategically, could be
(27:02):
a good thing. So oftentimes we actually do like to
see some of those distributions in trying to control those
distributions coming from those taxable sources, because it does let
you grow some of those other areas of your portfolio,
like a wroth. Let them continue to grow and you
can benefit more on them down the road. Also, taking
(27:23):
from you know, let's say an IRA will then you know,
limit or bring down a little bit what your required
minimum distribution is at age seventy three, which sometimes you know,
if it's a large enough account, could push people into
a higher tax bracket. So if we can try to
control that in the immediate term, that's something we try
(27:44):
to look at as well.
Speaker 4 (27:46):
Okay, I understand that it makes close sense. I have
one other things, so it took your dad's advice on
side ahead.
Speaker 1 (27:54):
No, no, I was just going to say, you know,
there's a lot of factors that come into it. So
I think there's a lot that we we try to
plan around. It's it's definitely unique to everyone's situation, the
types of accounts they have, you know, their tax bracket,
size of accounts, and kind of an estate planning thought
process along it too. So there's many scenarios. But I
would say, you know, high level, it doesn't always hurt
(28:17):
you to, you know, take some of those taxes sooner
than later if it's done, like I said, kind of
in a strategic manner where you're not you're not putting
yourself into a bad situation from taxes, but it could
help down the road.
Speaker 4 (28:31):
Gotcha all right? Excellent, Thank you for advice, and obviously
sit down with you guys now. Two years I took
your dad's advice. I started a sandbox fund and it
was whatever, twenty thirty grand.
Speaker 1 (28:42):
Was a lot.
Speaker 4 (28:43):
Are you familiar with the Vanguard MGK fund.
Speaker 1 (28:49):
MGK? Which one is that? I mean, we we use
a lot of Vanguard. Which one is mg cat make
acap growth.
Speaker 4 (29:00):
Yes, yep, I tell.
Speaker 2 (29:04):
You to tell me that you think this is decent
two years it's gone up one hundred and sixty dollars
this year, would you say it's good?
Speaker 1 (29:12):
Yes? What price did a startup? But yeah, I mean
I would think the if it's a megacap growth fund,
I'm assuming it's most of its portfolio is priced into
the MAG seven And as we know, MAG seven has
been really the driver of this, uh this market the
last two years. So I'm guessing it's done great over
the last two years. Yeah, so I'm happy with it,
(29:36):
you know.
Speaker 4 (29:36):
Just but anyway, thank you for your service and your
dad and all you guys.
Speaker 3 (29:40):
I appreciate.
Speaker 1 (29:41):
Oh, Dave, I appreciate the call. I'm glad, glad you
put that to work. Yeah, No, it's a it's a
great point. I'm yeah, I'm looking at the fun now.
It's uh, you know, fourteen percent Apple, twelve percent, Microsoft,
eleven percent, N Video, Amazon, Meta, Tessa, and then Eli
Lily is the other big portion of that. So yeah,
great great fund holding.
Speaker 4 (30:02):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (30:03):
You know, this goes into a lot of our strategy
in terms of holding these big winners and actually have
some stats that I'll I'll follow up with on Dave.
So I I like that you kicked off the conversation
around this because I think it's there's some really interesting
things to look at, and I think, you know, this
is probably the biggest theme of the market right now, right,
(30:24):
and we're having a lot of conversations when it when
it comes to the you know, stocks and equity side
of portfolios right now, because right you have like the
MAG seven right and then maybe you add Eli Lilly
in terms of their growth that we've seen over the
last couple of years. But you know, if you're focused
on MAG seven in particular, that's been the the driver
(30:47):
of markets unquestionably over the last two years. It's been
you know, a huge, huge run up in the overall markets.
It's had a huge, huge impact in terms of the
you know, market dynamics and key drivers of what's going
on here with the AI theme and a lot of
these big companies being able to benefit from that. But
(31:10):
at the same time, we also have on the flip side, right,
we have a little bit of an expensive market today.
We have market concentration like we've never seen before. And
so you know how much of this is you know,
are we still excited about the MAG seven growth and
where it can go from here versus you know, what
are the concerns around that as well? And I think
(31:30):
to Dave's point, having a sandbox account to you maybe
take on more of these riskier types of holdings in
a you know, prudent fashion and manner. I do think
makes a lot of sense when you're thinking about it,
because you know, we may see some big winners and losers,
and we'll kind of go into some of the stats
that are around that that I think are are pretty interesting.
(31:51):
So again, go back. Our phone lines are open. Give
me a call if you have any questions. One eight
hundred talk WGY. That's one eight hundred eight two five, five, nine,
four nine. We had some great conversations around Paul's call
from earlier and then Dave getting us kicked off with
you know, some some tax and retirement planning and also uh,
(32:13):
you know, thinking about the markets and in this conversation
around uh, the MAG seven and large cap growth. So
we'll get back into that. We are going back to
our phone lines. We have Jonathan and Schenectady. Jonathan, good morning,
well and.
Speaker 2 (32:27):
You're curious about the.
Speaker 4 (32:30):
Boy what's it about a couple of years ago, and
it's up, it's up about.
Speaker 1 (32:38):
And yeah, no, I mean I think Ge has been
a uh it's been a great story of Reese. And
you know, the last couple of years we're seeing in
the market and you know, this kind of goes around,
you know, some of the you know, I would say
it ties in a little bit of the overall theme
even though it's a little bit of a different area
(33:00):
of the market. But you know, thinking about kind of
this AI push and some components that are benefiting from it.
But yeah, Ge, especially as it's spun off, right, we
had kind of the spin off of a number of
their different pieces of the business. You know, we have
kind of more of energy, more of air not aeronautics
(33:22):
portion of the company. But you know, ge Vernova in
particular has been a big winner of late uh. And
you know, we're seeing a lot of momentum in kind
of the energy side of the markets, right, and you know,
(33:44):
big part of that is we think about with AI,
we think about the big technology companies, but you're seeing
you know, and it's been a little bit a little
bit more volatility with the deep Seek news from two
weeks ago, also with some prices of utilities. But you're
seeing like utilities, infrastructure, you know, industrials doing really well
(34:04):
of late because with the AI push, not only are
these large cap growth technology companies going to benefit, but
they need we need to power these companies, we need
to power the AI revolution that we're seeing. So there's
different areas of the market, right, We've seen, you know,
the chips and semiconductors do really well, but utilities and
(34:27):
energy is another area that are a big, big benefactor
of late when it comes to this AI revolution and
this AI push, and so yeah, parts of GE have
done really well. I think the market like some of
the restructuring around what they were doing, sort of separating
some of the companies that are able to be a
(34:48):
little bit more nimble, right. You know, we've talked about,
you know, I'm sure we've talked about in the past,
you know, Jeffrey Immel and his tenure, you know, getting
into some bad contracts, bad area. You know, you think
about some of the energy contracts overseas with French company
and in some of the kind of faults through there.
But you know, I do think the latest reorganization and
(35:11):
restructuring of GE has been really beneficial to it, and
I think the market has really liked it. And then
on top of that, I think, you know, given some
of the areas that GE, uh you know, has exposure to,
especially from the energy, infrastructure industrial standpoint, you know, those
are areas of the market that have been doing well.
And not only that, but we have a lot of
(35:32):
government spending that's going into some of the you know,
industrial backbone of our economy and some areas that have
continued to do well. So I think they're benefiting from
a lot of different areas, Jonathan. So I appreciate the call.
Hopefully that that helps kind of, you know, get into
some talking points around you know, what you brought up
with GE. But yeah, it's been a it's been a
(35:52):
great success story I think of the last couple of years,
and especially for those local folks that have exposure to
it and have either worked there exposure through the market.
I always use that as an example, you know, talking
to clients about just kind of some of the emotional
attachment to certain stocks, right, and I think GE in particular,
(36:15):
especially for upstate New York and and for how many folks.
G had such a big impact on both in the
career and like I said, from a portfolio and investment standpoint,
G is a is a company we talk about often,
and like I said, we we have we use it
(36:35):
in a you know, behavioral finance perspective a lot of
times too, because, uh, GE was was such an emotional
attachment to so many people, and and talking about the
GE dividend of of you know, yesteryear, the impact you
know overall with just how well that stock did for
(36:58):
so many years, and then you know again some of
the negative impact that we saw, you know, through the
early two thousands and financial crisis and how how that
changed things and how maybe change people's perception of a
stock like that. So, yeah, we talk about GE a lot,
and like you said, especially from just that that behavioral component.
(37:23):
I think, uh, behavioral finance has been so huge in
our industry, uh for for you know, especially of late
that a lot of our conversations to try to you know,
just just better understanding our mindset around the markets, our
mindsets around portfolios, and how we should be kind of
(37:44):
thinking about day to day headlines or just day to
day movements in the portfolio. The behavioral finance perspective is
so so helpful, and actually we'll we'll talk a little
bit about that. And we had an interesting conversation with
some of our fixed income partners that that we work with,
(38:07):
and it was really interesting, and so I'll talk about
that as well. You know, we'll we'll open up the
phone lines as well if you do have questions we
have about you know, maybe ten minutes left today's show,
we've had some great questions we have, Paul, Dave Jonathan,
Thank you guys for all calling in. We still have
ten minutes if anyone's out there that does have questions.
(38:27):
One eight hundred talk WGY. That's one eight hundred eight
two five, five, nine, four nine. We think about you know,
behavioral finance. You know something that was so interesting. We're working,
like I said, we work. We're so fortunate and uh,
we're doing a lot more work in some different areas, right.
You know, we talk about our portfolios, our ETF approach
(38:52):
to portfolio management, having the consistency, the capabilities, our trading platform,
our trading and operations team, how integral they are and
to our overall success and managing portfolios and all the
important work they do in all of us meeting on
a week to week basis as part of our investment
(39:12):
committee too, you know, help maintain portfolios, help implement portfolio ideas.
But like I said, at our size, in our independence
as a registered investment advisor, we are so so fortunate
right now that we're just able to offer so much
capabilities to our clients in different ways, whether it's tax
(39:34):
planning and financial planning, and you know the softwares and
tools that we're able to use there, and you know
the depth that we're able to go into with these
conversations with our clients on a planning perspective, and we're
doing so much planning work with clients right now and
really seeing the benefit of all that work that we've done.
(39:54):
It's it's great to see. But on the investment side
as well, right we're able to do a lot lot
with our capabilities right now, and so we're having a
lot of conversations around Okay, where you know this fixed
income environment today, right, I think so many investors sort
of got pushed away from fixed income in twenty twenty
two where we had both stocks sell off, rates were
(40:17):
going up, and so bonds sold off as well, right,
bonds are always meant to be that you know, ballast
in a volatile market to kind of offset the volatility
of equities. And we saw both equities and fixed income
come down at the same time. So a lot of
investors kind of shrugged and pushed aside fixed income and wanting,
you know, different solutions. Whereas you know today's environment, you know,
(40:39):
still the ten year treasuries over four and a half percent,
we're at, you know, almost twenty year highs in a
from a interest rate environment perspective and yield perspective, I mean,
right now, fixed income, there's some great options out there,
whether again you're just adding some you know, fixed income
to fully if you're high income earner. We're having great
(41:02):
conversations with some of our muni municipal partners that are
out there and looking at our tax equivalent yields that
are you know, in some situations hovering over seven percent
depending on you know, where you want to be and
you know you have to be in that highest income bracket.
So you know, for those high income earners. But in
New York State, you think about your FED tax rates,
(41:25):
your New York State tax rates. Man, when you're when
you're looking at where some of the muni market is
right now, depending on you know, where you want to
be on a yield curve perspective and duration perspective. But
we're looking at you know, high sixes to mid to
high seven percent tax equivalent yields in these areas of
the market. It's a great time to be looking at
(41:45):
fixed income and take advantage of fixed income. But you know,
the behavioral side of investors, because we were so scared
away from twenty twenty two having these conversations with these
uh fixed income partners, They're saying, there's that market is
still so slow for people to get in. You were
getting more people investing in this area when when rates
were at one point five versus four point five today.
(42:07):
So it's just interesting, you know, you have a you know,
have bad year like twenty twenty year two, and what
type of impact that has moving forward. So I just
want to throw that out there. I thought it was
super interesting and kind of falls into that behavioral finance conversation.
So we're gonna go back to the phone lines again.
Our phone lines are open one eight hundred talk WGY.
That's one eight hundred eight two five, five, nine, four nine.
(42:30):
We have Rick in half moon. Rick, thank you for
sticking with us. How are you today?
Speaker 4 (42:35):
Okay, fine, you guys, look at I'm going to the other
end of the spectrum. I'm hearing a lot about crypto,
especially of the new president. And where's your guys position
on man. I never really hear you guys talking about
crypto and crypto currency.
Speaker 1 (42:51):
Yeah, no, it's a it's thank you for asking about it. No,
I mean, I think crypto is an area of the
market really, you know, when you take a step back,
crypto is essentially you know, more or less right just
in terms of how it moves and kind of how
you see it react in the market. It's basically leverage
technology type of movement. So you know, it has benefited
(43:14):
investors dramatically. We don't invest in it in our overall portfolios,
you know, I think it's you know, for me, crypto,
I still struggle with the overall use case, you know,
the underlying really intrinsic value of it all. But you
know it's not to be you know, discounted that it
(43:35):
has grown tremendously and really gone up and benefited a
lot of investors, and so you know, to me, it's
something that again if you want to participate in and
take on that risk, because you know, we saw you know,
in years past, whether it's a year like twenty twenty
two or even before there this is a super volatile
asset class. Even if you know it's it's coming to
(43:56):
favor with this administration, I think that is a huge
ben and fit for it. But there are still a
lot of areas of the market, whether it's you know,
these meme coins, some of these other tokens that come
out that I really think you need to be you know,
careful of, you know, those in particular, I think, you know,
you need to be prepared that could go to zero.
(44:16):
I think, you know, kind of the big ones like
a bitcoin ethereum now that you can get exposure to
it in an ETF form, which I think is beneficial
if you do want that exposure, but you know, it
really should be you know, two to three percent of
the portfolio, certainly under five percent, but again, you know
it it don't want to dismiss the fact that some
people have done, you know, made tremendous wealth within it
(44:40):
as you see it movement up over the last few years.
So I think it's just something to keep in perspective,
it's really, you know, just a leverage technology type of
alternative holding in investment. And I do think if we
see the overall market sort of pull back or if
we get any volatility there, we certainly will see that
in the crypto market. Well, So hopefully that that helps Rick.
(45:02):
I think, like I said, that's something that we're really
active in. But obviously for for investors, I think it's
important to understand the implications of it and and do
so in it in a prudent fashion.
Speaker 4 (45:15):
Can fin right Another question?
Speaker 1 (45:18):
Uh sure?
Speaker 4 (45:20):
Yeah, Well you just said I was gonna say, if
I wanted to put on my sandbox, where would I go?
I just heard you say bitcoin ETF or do I
go to coin base just to dabble in it?
Speaker 1 (45:31):
I think probably the best if you're looking to dabble
in it. My my recommendation would be the ETF route
now because now that it's actual in ETF with underlying holdings,
the price is much more reflective of the price of
bitcoin before they were held in trusts. Now, with like
the the spot ETF, like ib I T from black Rock, again,
(45:53):
it trades along the price of bitcoin versus having a
nav spread that they had before in the like the
Gray Scale trust. So I do think the ETF is
probably the most approachable, easiest way to get access to
it versus going to like a you know, crypto specific
type of custodian. I think just holding it into your
(46:15):
normal custodian is the best way to access it today.
Speaker 4 (46:20):
Okay, thank you for that advice.
Speaker 1 (46:22):
All right, Rick, thank you for the call. Appreciate it.
We have a few minutes left. I will try to go.
We have Lisa and delmar Lisa. I think we only
have two or three minutes left, so if you have
a quick question, we'll try to answer before the show ends.
Speaker 3 (46:35):
That's a quick question is I have a lot of
cash available, and I've been meeting with some different advisors,
just interviewing them and trying to figure out what my
plan should be. And I get completely different approaches discussed
with me from each of the advisors or companies. And
my last meeting was Vanguard. They were recommending I put
(46:56):
all my money into four different funds and you know,
not to worry about the tenaxes really because it's better
to be making money on the money then, you know.
So my question to you is, I don't want to
pay a lot of taxes on my after tax money investments,
and I was wondering if you have any suggestions or
just comment on that my my nervousness about paying tons
(47:17):
of taxes.
Speaker 1 (47:19):
Yeah, no, I appreciate you.
Speaker 4 (47:20):
Know.
Speaker 1 (47:20):
We have a ton of clients and taxes oftentimes are
kind of the driving factor of a lot of their
decision making process. I only have twenty five seconds left
at LISTA. If you want to give us a call
at the office this week, be happy to kind of
talk through your situations. It's hard to know exactly what
it is, but you can call us at seven two
zero three three three three. Would love to talk through it.
There's so much to kind of consider and think about there,
(47:43):
but I appreciate the call. Please give our offices a
call if we can help in any way, And thank
you to everyone listening. We'll be back next week. Let's
talk money here on A ten one oh three one
WGY
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