Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Boy, Julie, I hate to end this music. Let's keep
it on for a couple seconds. It's kind of catchy,
isn't it. I don't know if you know those people,
but I used to play the saxophone the way back
when I sure didn't. Well, good morning, here we are
on a nice sunny day. When was the last time
(00:29):
that I said that? On the weekend June twenty first,
twenty twenty five, and we had sun, warmth, a little
heat out there. I was up early Stewart's grabbing my papers.
Then I grabbed a coffee. I sat on my bench,
which I do every morning, and kind of, you know,
I'll just clear the air, my own way of meditating,
(00:52):
let's say. But right now I'm live with you. I'm
Stephen Bouchet. I'm your host. I've been your host for
thirty years and I love doing the radio. And if
you have any questions, any questions whatsoever, one eight hundred
Talk WGY, one eight hundred Talk WGY. That's one eight
(01:14):
hundred eight two five five nine four nine one eight
hundred eight two five fifty nine forty nine. Any questions whatsoever, Folks,
give me a call. I would love, love, love to
talk to you. I mean that, you know, love is
a powerful word. But when I tell you I would
love to talk to you, I would love to talk
(01:34):
to you. So one eight hundred eight two five fifty
nine forty nine. So what a week we had. I'm
telling you why why the markets aren't down ten percent
after a week like this? I'm telling you if the
market's pretty resilient. This is why I'm optimistic about the market.
The market can handle a lot of volatility. The market
(01:57):
can listen. What the market doesn't like is surprises. And
we had a lot going on this week. He had
Israel hit Iranian oil and gas depots, and oil and
gold went up the Persian Gulf ship and continued. President
Trump left to Chise seven meeting early like in Irish
(02:21):
goodbye hello folks. And then after goodbye folks, is telling
Iranians to flee, you know, dayran and unconditionally surrender. He's
not fooling around. I guess over the next two weeks
we'll see if we're going to get into this conflict
(02:41):
with Iran that Israel's having. The administration reversed its retreat
on deportations and agriculture, hotels and restaurants interesting. The Federal
Reserve helped interest rates steady. No surprise there. FED Chair J.
Powell warned of infleetion and tear for risks Trump, as
(03:03):
I said, he's delaying his iron decision for two weeks.
So for the week, the S and P down point
one five percent, but QQQ, one of our top holdings,
up too tenths of a percent. That was nice, up
to tens of a percent QQQ. It's funny because the
entire NASDAK composite was down two tens of a percent,
(03:28):
but QQQ, I'm sorry, let me reverse that. Qq Q
was down two tens of a percent. The entire Nasdaq
composite was up two tens of a percent. So we
were down not even two tens of percent point oh two,
So two BIPs QQQ, And as I said, the S
and P was down point one five percent. Here today
(03:51):
though the S and P up one point five percent.
Better than being down. Folks always remember it's better to
be up than down. The the QQQ up almost three
percent and the entire NASDAT composite up seven ten percent,
So QQQ is the leader so far. Russell two thousand
and still down five and a half percent year to date,
(04:13):
but for the week it was up almost half a
percent of Russell two thousand. And you hear me say
this often. That's nice to see. That means that the
advancement in the market is broadening, and that's you want that.
You want to see the entire market do well, not
just the Magnificent seven and the big boys. You really
want to see the entire market do well. You know gold,
(04:36):
you know God that that that the all time high
was thirty four thirty one, and we sit here at
thirty three sixty eight, just under that, up twenty eight
percent year to date. Gold is crude oil. Obviously, with
the conflict over there in the Middle East, crude oil
is about seventy five dollars of barrow, up about four
and a half percent year to date. So there you
(04:57):
have it. This coming week we have on Monday, the
SMP Global releases both its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers
Index for June. The consensus is a fifty one reading
for the Manufacturing PMI and fifty two point seven for
the Services Both would be about one point less than
(05:19):
respective May figures. On Tuesday, we still have some quarterly
earnings coming in we have FedEx reporting and on Tuesday,
the esteem Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivers a semi
annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee,
and he will do the same before the Senate on Wednesday,
(05:42):
would be due, right, Yeah, we want to make sure
all those politicians in Washington are brought up the date
so they can drill and drill down and look like
fools on TV, which they do often. Sorry, politicians, I
didn't mean to take any wind out of your sale.
I know you think you're doing a good job for
the taxpayers, but you really aren't. And you know, Jay
(06:06):
Powell's holding holding tight. You know, President Trump wants once
he wants some interest rate cuts, and he wants them now,
and he wants them big. He doesn't go anything, he
doesn't do anything small. President Trump wants some big tax cuts,
not tax cuts, but interest rate cuts. And Jay Powell's
(06:26):
holding steady. Actually, in his interview on Wednesday when he
came out, he say meet, you know every six weeks
or so, and they have a Tuesday, Wednesday meeting in
about two thirty. He comes out and kind of does
it recap him one report or ask what do you
think about, you know, we something like we step down.
I mean President Trump even said this week that he
(06:48):
would make a better Federal Reserve chair than Jay Powell.
Obviously that's just you know that, that's just Trump being Trump.
Sometimes you got to you got to just let them
be who he is. So you know, power wouldn't even
answer the question when it would not even entertain it.
(07:10):
On Friday, the Bureau of Economics and Analysis releases the
Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index from AY. Economists right now
are forecasting a two point three percent year over year increase,
about two tenths of a percentage point more than April.
The core PCE is supposed to come in around two
point six compared with two point five, so we'll see.
(07:32):
This is obviously the Feds, this is what they look
at more than they look at most other you know,
readings on the economy. So to be interested. That's on Friday, folks,
I'm going to take a quick fifteen second break. You're
listening to Let's talk money. The bone mines are open
one eight hundred eighty two five five nine four nine
(07:54):
one eight hundred eighty two five fifty nine forty nine.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
If you want to learn more about Bouchet Financial Group,
visit their website Bouche dot com. That's b O U
c h e y dot com. Sign up for their blog,
which is updated every week Stephenbouche dot com. Follow them
on Twitter at Bouchet Group. Like them on Facebook. The
phone lines are open eight hundred talk WGY. That's eight
(08:20):
hundred eight two five five nine four nine. Here is
Stephen Bouchet.
Speaker 1 (08:27):
Here. I am Stephen Bouche eighty two five five nine
four nine on the phone lines. If you have any questions,
give me a call. So how about the City Detroit
moving City Hall? And what a mess over there in
Troy on the river. But supposedly they're going to be
moving to the old Proctor site, which is really right
(08:49):
around the corner from our office. We're on Fifth and Broadway,
not Manhattan, but historic downtown Troy. That's where our Troy
offices are. And I'm in Saratoga. Were right on Broadway,
so I guess Broadway is popular for the Bouchet Financial Group. So,
and then Ryan obviously has an office in Boston that
we have, So that was big news to see that
(09:12):
that city Hall is going to move to Proctors the
old Proctor's site, and you know, people are wondering, is
as beautiful as it was melt There was a past
administration that sold that beautiful building for twenty five thousand
dollars to some idiot from New Jersey who stripped Proctors
of anything that that was worth anything. And long story short,
(09:37):
Proctors will never be what it was. And then he
left the place to rot. But that's how a lot
of politicians think. They don't think long term, They don't
you know, they just kind of give away assets. There
was a time in Troy when Troy was going to
give away the the water reserve. I mean, how crazy.
(10:01):
The decisions that some politicians make are just just crazy.
Eighty two five five nine four nine. So, as I said,
bright and early, I went to Stewart's to grab the newspapers,
and I didn't realize this came out, but in this
week's Barons there's a little article here about a buffet
(10:24):
plus basically an exchange trade of fun. That's that's aligned
with Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hackaway Halfaway Berkshire Hathaway boy. I
am tongue tied this morning. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Equity
portfolio and it's called Vista Shares Target fifteen. Berkshire Select
(10:46):
Income holds twenty one stocks twenty that are in Berkshire's portfolio,
plus ten percent of its assets are in Berkshire Class B.
And there's a little twist. Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend,
you know, And basically you know this is saying this
isn't me saying I haven't proven this yet. I'll have
(11:08):
my analysts look at it on Monday. But they're saying
there may be a fifteen percent target annual yield, which
is pretty good. I mean, one Buffet li wast at
ninety four years old, finally finally announced that he has
a successor. Took him a long time. He's been talking
about a successor for I think ten years since he
(11:28):
was eighty four, and we have a successor at the
end of the year that will be taking over for
Warren Buffet. He's a pretty good investor, folks, and he's
he's done well. Remember he didn't get into technology I
think twenty and eighteen and I think still the only
technology company he holds his Apple, and that's our number
one holding, Apple in Amazon or a number one and
(11:51):
two holdings, and I like them both, and believe me,
earlier this year they both took it on the chin.
They both they both had a hard time with it,
but long term, they're both great companies. I like both
of those companies and they're they're they're good companies. And
believe me, if you're wondering, hey, why don't I own
(12:12):
Apple or Amazon? Folks, if you own QQQ, all right,
you have your number one holding is Microsoft represents eight
percent of assets, Nividia almost nine percent of assets, Apple
represents seven and a half percent, and Amazon represents five
and a half percent. So if you own QQQ, you
(12:34):
do own Apple and Amazon indirectly. And the same with
the S and P five hundred, if you own the
S and P five hundred, which you know everybody should
own the S and P five hundred, or we own
actually the total stock market. We like the total stock market.
It gives us not only not only you know, large caps,
(12:54):
but it gives us mid cap and the small cap.
And if you own the SMP or the total stock market,
for the most part, the top ten holdings account for
about thirty six percent. Once again, believe it or not
no surprise, Microsoft, Navidia, Apple, and Amazon. So Apple makes
up about six percent of the SMP and Amazon makes
(13:16):
up about four percent of the SMP. So if you
own either of those those holdings in your portfolio, you're
you're invested in those big boys, and you have some
Apple and Amazon, So don't worry if you don't own individually.
Very few people really should be buying and selling individual stocks.
(13:38):
It's hard, hard, hard to make money buying and selling stocks.
I always say sixty five to eighty five percent of
the time. There's statistics on this where active stock pickers
cannot outperform their respective benchmark. And most most stock you know,
investments should be really should be compared to the SMP
(14:02):
or the total stock market. So there you have it.
We have an ETF long long way about explaining this
Berkshire Hathaway. So if you want some some Warren Buffett's ideas,
you can go out and buy this. This the shares
target fifteen Birdshire, you know, Attracks, Apple, As I said,
(14:25):
ten percent of the assets are in Berkshire b shares,
American Express, Coca Cola. You know, it's it's it's it's
not bad. What eight hundred eighty two five five nine
four nine one eight hundred eighty two five fifty nine
forty nine. Any questions, any questions whatsoever. I would love
to talk to you and get your pointed in the
(14:46):
right direction. Remember, you get one opportunity to retire, only one,
and if you're not prepared, you either have to continue
work it. Hopefully there's a place out there that will
hire you. You know, it's it's it's it's tough if
you're not prepared and you get to retirement age. You
hope that you're healthy enough. You hear me talk about
(15:06):
this often. Your health is really what matters, folks. Nothing
else matters if you don't have your health. Believe me,
and I say this, especially after last year. You know,
I had a change in my health and knock on wood,
I'm doing amazing health. You know, I'll never be able
(15:28):
to make up for losing my wife Sue a year ago,
almost thirteen months ago now, So I'll never be able
to you know, There'll always be that void. So this
is why you hear me say you often, and I
say it a lot of clients. We actually had a
prospective client this week and we were talking my colleagues
(15:50):
we're talking about. I actually was Marty who was saying,
you know, not only do we manage your your wealth,
and we do a really good job at manager on
our client's wealth. We have discretion. We have a great
investment team led by my son Ryan Pollo, La Pietra
at Wilhelm, Casey Bird and Dave Clark. They do an
(16:11):
amazing job picking investments and we're on top of it.
We're proactive, we're not reactive, and we don't get scared.
Very seldom we see us get scared. We don't care
if the market goes down. We don't care. If there's
some volatility, it does not scare us. If anything, it's
you know, volatility brings opportunity. If you're a good investor,
(16:33):
you'll take that volatility and you'll use it to your
advantage and make investment decisions in your portfolio that are
really good for your portfolio. Eighty two five, five, nine,
four nine. Give me a call with your question so
I can get your pointed in the right direction. So
you heard me talk a little bit about the Federal Reserve.
(16:54):
They held great study, but they said there's going to
be cuts later in the year. We'll Remember their data driven.
They look at just what every report that comes out
regarding inflation and Friday, as I said, the PCE is
coming out and that's their favorite indicator of where inflation's going. So,
(17:15):
you know, basically, the Fed kept interest rates at a
range of four point two five to four point five
for the fourth time this year, resisting pressure from President
Trump to cut them and others who feel that interest
rates should be cut. Remember why does the Fed cut
interest rates? They cut interest rates to stimulate the economy,
(17:36):
to get things going. If the economy looks like it's
stuck or you know, if we're stagnant, by cutting interest rates,
that should create you know, the the incentive for consumers
to spend more, borrow more. Obviously, the consumer makes up
(17:57):
two thirds of GDP and the consumers really the you know,
if it wasn't for the consumer folks, the consumers everything.
So when the consumers out there spending, so they cut
interest rates to get the consumer to spend. Why do
they raise interest rates to slow down in the economy
(18:17):
that's getting out of hand? Remember a couple of years ago,
inflation was nine point two percent nine point two and
they cut cut Now they were late cutting, but at
least they finally cut and we got inflation right now.
Depending on which indicator you look at, let's just say
it's between. I'm going to say two and a half
(18:39):
to three percent is really where inflation is. And you
know the Feds they're bound and determined they want a
two percent target. Why they got spoiled when we had
that financial collapse two thousand and seven through March of
two thousand and nine, you know, interest rates were low,
inflation was well, was unheard of, and you know, the
(19:03):
Fed kind of got greedy, let's call it. Now. If
you look over the last one hundred years, the last
fifty years, inflation averages about three point four percent a year.
So why is the Fed fixated on a two percent
target for inflation? Who knows? I don't know. I actually
do know one of the Fed governors, but I haven't
(19:24):
asked him yet. This summer I'll be with him and
I'm going to ask why they're intent on two percent target. So, well,
we'll see. So they get the interest rates study for
the fourth time, and you know, basically they said they
expect two cuts by year end. Seven of the Federal
(19:45):
Open Market Committee members now expect no cuts in twenty
twenty five. So there's nineteen members, only twelve vote, and
obviously Chair J. Powell is one of the well that votes.
But there's nineteen that talked this out and hash it out,
but only twelve vote. And basically Jerome Powell emphasized inflation
(20:09):
risks due to tariffs and reiterated the Fed's independence from
political pressure. They're not going to listen to politicians. They're
supposed to be completely independent from no matter who the
politician is. It doesn't matter. Every politician wants to be
part of interest rate policy and it's not their job.
(20:30):
They you know, the Fed Reserve Open Market Committee, it's
their job. And if J. Powell is standing his ground,
and he should stand his ground, he's the chair the
Federal Reserve, and until he's not the chair, you know,
basically he and his committee are are are doing it.
(20:51):
And right now I would say that the markets listen.
Right now, the markets think there's going to be cuts,
and if if they don't materialize, you could see the
markets react to that not in a favorable way. But
right now I think the markets are pretty much they
feel there's going to be cuts, and we'll see, you know,
(21:16):
I'm hoping there will be. I would love to see
the economy get going. I'm also in favor of tax
rate cuts. Folks don't don't don't believe that they're bad
for the economy. They're actually good for the economy. And
I would love to see this economy continue to grow.
I would love to see, you know, this great country
(21:36):
of ours do well and you know, people get jobs
and good paying jobs. That's one of the good things
that came out of COVID is you know minimum wage.
I remember we used to sit here on the radio
and say, ah, the FED may raise minimum wage at
ten dollars an hour, and all you know, businesses are
going to be running scared and they're going to be
(21:57):
closing left and right. Some businesses afford to pay higher wages,
but COVID, you know, the Fed didn't have to do anything.
COVID took care of that in order for company. I
don't care if it's Amazon, Walmart, Target, I don't care
if it's the local pizza shop or deli. If they're
not paying fifteen to twenty dollars an hour, and that's
(22:18):
starting salary with benefits and flexibility, they're not attracting any workers.
So you know, Covid kind of took care of that.
We don't have to worry about the FED raising the
minimum wage because cod Covid did that for us, and
companies have to do that. And you hear me say
this often. Listen, I'm a small business owner, and you know,
(22:41):
if the profits of the front are less because I
have to take care of my people, let it be less.
I'm okay with that. You know, my people deserve to
be able to go home, put food on the table,
pay a mortgage, pay rent. You know, Listen, they need
(23:01):
to have a good lifestyle, and I'm proud that I'm
able to afford that. So if the firm makes a
little bit less in profits because I'm taking care of
my people, so be it. That's okay. I'm very fine
with that. You know, that does not bother me at all. Folks,
you're listening to Let's Talk Money, brought to you by
(23:23):
Boucheting Answer Group, where we help our clients prioritize their
health while we manage their wealth for life. And I
hope you stick with me through the news. The phone
lines are open one eight hundred eight two five, five, nine,
four nine, one eight hundred eighty five fifty nine forty nine.
Any questions whatsoever, give me a call on the other
(23:45):
side of the news break. Let me hopefully get you
pointed in the right direction. I would love to talk
with you whatever the question is. Folks, listen, I used
to bartend, so I used to take a lot of questions,
marriage questions, relationship questions. Give it to me. One eight
hundred eight two five five nine four nine. Oh, I
love this music the last love it, love it, love it. Folks,
(24:10):
welcome back. Thank you for hanging in through the news.
I truly appreciate it. One eight hundred eight two five
five nine four nine one eight hundred eighty two five
fifty nine forty nine. I truly appreciate you tuning in
as you do every week for thirty years. Thirty plus
years now, I've been doing the show and it does
(24:31):
not get old. I love doing this show. When I
tell you I love doing the show, I get energized
doing the show. I do not mind doing the show.
Even on a beautiful sunny daylight today, it looks like
looks like we're gonna have a nice warm weekend. That's
a beautiful thing to have a nice warm weekend one
eight hundred eight two, five, five, nine, four nine, give
(24:53):
me a call with any questions you have. So you know,
hear and me talk a lot about health, and you know,
this week I find we found a good trainer, Danielle,
and she's right up the street from from me in
downtown Saratoga. And she worked me pretty hard. I'm going
right after the show, I got another session with her.
(25:16):
And when I tell you, she worked me hard. And
you know she checked on me the next day. I said,
you haven't killed me yet, but you're getting closes. We'll
see how you do on Saturday. So that feels good
to be building up my strength. I also did hot
yoga yesterday. I found the Hot Yoga studio in Saratoga.
I'm hoping to do that two three times a week.
(25:37):
And as they say, if you can't take the heat,
get out of the kitchen. And I'm telling you, hot
yoga is hot, baby, Hot hot yoga is is, but
it's good. You know. I just want to be able
to touch my toes. You know there's nothing wrong with that, right.
I guess what I'm saying is, let's take care of
your health. You need to take care of your help
(26:00):
one eight hundred eighty five five nine four nine, give
me a call. I love to talk yet Crypto, you know,
the only action you're going to get on the weekend
unless you're going to bet Game seven of the basketball
series tonight, which I don't really follow NBA basketball at all.
But Crypto bitcoins up, you know about one hundred and
(26:20):
four thousand. Not bad. I have Crypto in my in
my play account, my sandbox account, and you know I'll
share anything with your folks. I got a few what
we call sandbox accounts in the office where we play,
because everybody wants to play a little. Right when you
(26:40):
were a kid, you played in the sandbox. That's why
we actually stole the term from a client who came
in once. He says, can I move over the sandbox account?
I said, what do you mean? Sandbox account? He says,
you know I play a little. I said absolutely, and
we have We have stole on that line, and we
(27:01):
actually open up small accounts for clients I want to play.
So I have a few sandbox accounts, Crypto being one
of them. Ed Wilhelm is in charge of managing my
sandbox accounts. I am one with just the Magnificent seven.
I have another with you know stops. I'm a Tom
(27:22):
Lee fan. I love following Tom Lee. And he has
what he calls his Granny picks, So Ed tracks that
every month when he buys or sells. We and I
have some short term gains. And Ed said Steve, if
I rebalance this month, you're going to have some short
term gains. I said, Ed. You can't make money without gains, right,
Don't let the tail wag the dog, folks, It's okay
(27:45):
to pay taxes. If you're making money, it's okay to
pay taxes. And I'm making money in that sandbox account.
And then I have one that is just I play with.
Atfp's we manage about one point five billion. The only
two individual stocks we have is Apple and Amazon. Everything else, folks,
is exchange traded funds. That is really truly how we
(28:08):
manage our client's money. We do a good job, you
know the first half of the show, I said, Ryan
heads that up with Paolo la Pietra at Wilhelm, Casey
Bird and Dave Clark, and they do an amazing job.
And they they report to me every week, and I like,
I like what they what they do. So it's it's
(28:30):
you know, it's it's it's we manage money in a
very disciplined manner. I'm very proud of what we do.
One eight hundred eighty two five five nine four nine.
Before you go out on the lake or hit the links,
or take a walk, give me a call. One eight
hundred eighty two five fifty nine forty nine. We got
the US ten year Treasury at about four point three
(28:53):
almost four point four percent. That's still pretty good, folks.
You know, going back to what I said on the
first half of the show. After the financial collapse back
in two thousand and seven through March of two thousand
and nine, interest rates where there was no such thing
as interest rates. Interest rates were you know, they just
weren't around. So now you can buy a six month
(29:15):
get about four point three, a one year, four, five
year almost four, and a ten year four point four,
a twenty year if you're willing to go out that far,
it's actually a twenty year and thirty year. And you know,
I'm looking at these these rates on these long term bonds.
They're not bad. Almost five percent you're able to get
(29:36):
if you're willing to tie up your money for twenty
or thirty years, and I'm not sure that's you know,
that may be a good bet for those of you
that are laddering bonds. And why not buy treasuries they're
state tax free, so you know, you get even a
little bit more incentive. And right now there's some good
yields on unis, but make sure you buy safe munis,
(29:59):
good unis, and you know, be careful about the type
communities you buy. Don't buy immunity just because of the yield,
because that's what we refer to as high yield, which
you know, just like junk bonds, there's junk communi bonds.
You're you're you're basically loaning your money to something that
may not be worthy. Maybe you shouldn't be loaning your
(30:22):
money too when you buy a bond. That's basically what
you're doing the same as a CD. Folks, and you
walk in the front door of the bank and you
loan your money and you buy a CD, they're basically taken.
So they take your money, they're going to give you,
let's say four percent, and they're going to turn around
and loan that money to the person behind you, and
(30:46):
they're going to borrow money for car loan or mortgage
and pay six, seven, eight, nine, ten percent or more.
That's how banks make their money. So they pay you
for and then they turn and loan it back out
at a much higher rate. So there you have it.
So you know, the ten year almost four point four,
(31:07):
and as I said, the twenty years just shy of
you know, five, and the thirty years about four point nine.
Those those aren't bad interest rates. Don't be afraid of
ladder and some bonds. I spent a year now I've
been saying I actually like bonds' there's nothing wrong with bonds.
(31:28):
So you know the Fed. You know, folks, you got
listen to the geopolitical volatility. You know, the renewed Israel
and I ran, you know, the conflict, the US military
build up. You know, oil prices up eighteen percent since
June tenth. Right now we're near five month highs. Markets
(31:50):
have been crazy volatile because of global tensions, and for
the most part, equities have hung in there. The market's
been resilient. The US stock market is resilience. So what happens,
you know, obviously, if oil continues to go up, that's
a big, big factor when it comes to inflation. We
(32:12):
need oil, folks, whether you're putting gas in your car,
whether you're you know, getting ready to fill your your
your pro paine tanks for for this coming winter, whether
you take a bus to work, or you know you
have your your favorite pizza place, deliver your pizza. Oil
and gas it's a big, big part of inflation. And
(32:36):
you know, we'll we'll, we'll see what happens there. Hopefully
hopefully I ran backs down, and to be honest, hopefully
hopefully their nuclear abilities get demolished. I have no problems
saying that. You know, this world, we we we we
have to be a better place. We have to you know,
(33:00):
not have to worry all the time. So geopolitical, you know,
factors weighed in on the markets this week. You got
some people you know, there, there's there's there. There's one
guy out there forecasting a twenty five percent drop in
the S and P and a possible recession and twenty
twenty five I don't see that. You know, he's basically
(33:21):
saying there's week job openings, which there are, rise in
consumer debt, which there is, and sluggish housing. But I
my bet is that we're not going to have a
recession and I hoping that we don't see twenty five
percent trot. Remember, over the last almost forty four years,
(33:43):
a fourteen percent swing from peak to trough, from high
to low is you know, it's average stint. That's the
average swing in the stock market prices over the last
twenty four years. Year in year out, on average, you'll
see the market swing fourteen percent in any calendar year.
(34:06):
So do not let do not let volatility get to you.
One eight hundred eighty five five nine four nine. Give
me a call if you have anything you want to
talk about, you know, love to talk to you. One
eight hundred eighty five fifty nine forty nine. There was
a good article and in Barns about credit card perks.
(34:30):
They worth the higher fees, you know, basically premium credit cards.
You know, you know, if you get the right one,
you got access to airport lounges, rewards for travel. But
you know the cost of like the American Express right
now has an annual fee of six ninety five if
you get the AMX Centurion, if you're invited to get that,
(34:53):
you can't just get that better known as the black card,
that comes with a ten thousand dollars initiation fee and
then an annual fee of five thousand dollars year in,
year out. And you won't see that publicize anymore anywhere.
Amex doesn't really provide those details. They kind of keep
that as a secret. That that black card you got,
(35:16):
you know, Chase Sapphire Reserve one of the most popular.
They announced on June seventeenth that they're hiking their fee
forty five percent up to seventy ninety five, which means
you'll probably see American Express up thirs from six to
ninety five. You know, American Express always wants to be
(35:37):
the most expensive fee, so darn it. I have the
American Express Platinum Card and it's nice. I book a hotel,
I get a late checkout, I get free breakfast in
some of these hotels. That that's a lot. I get
an automatic upgrade. So I can obviously say, for me,
I get a lot of benefits with the American Express card.
(36:00):
For me. It's not for everybody, but for me, you know,
it's it's it's it's okay. You know, I'm good with it.
I think I get more benefits than then it costs me.
I get you know, credit towards Uber and you know, my, my,
what do they call it? Clear? We don't have an
(36:21):
an almuni, but in a lot of airports around the country,
and I do a fair amount of traveling. You basically
you scoot right through, you look into the little camera,
they take a picture, and they escort your right to
the front of the line. I like going to the
front of the line. So with the American Express, you know, basically,
(36:43):
you know, as I said, you get two hundred dollars
annual statement credit on you know, different hotel bookings credit
to you know, an airline if you book your your
flight twenty dollars a month digital entertained the credit fifty
dollars semi annual credit at Sacks, which I don't shot at,
(37:05):
but if I did, I guess maybe I should shot there,
you know, fifty dollars I might be able to get
a pair of socks. Who knows, but I didn't know
they it's in this article. I'm not making this sop.
It's right here in front of me and today's parents
that I got at Stuart's, my favorite store. The people
in Stuarts, you know, they're all partners of Stuart's. Gary
(37:26):
Dak and his day. I did a beautiful thing when
he set up that East stop. And people that work
at Stuart's are really partners and with that and they
really you know, they take care of their their their partners,
their their employees. But that's where I get my papers
every Saturday. One eight hundred eighty two five five nine
(37:48):
four nine. I'm going to take a quick fifteen second break.
Don't go anywhere. Hello, folks, I'm back. Thank you for
letting me wet my whistle. One eight hundred eight two
five five nine four nine. So before you go out
and spend all that money on credit card, you know,
make sure the perks are worth the high fees. It's
not for everybody. Make sure that it's that it's it's
(38:11):
it's it's worth it for you to pay those high fees.
Make sure you're going to get your benefits out of it,
and make sure that you know it's it's good for you.
And going back to you know, why do we use
energy or why do we use exchange traded funds? You know,
I'm just looking because energy has been you know, obviously
with the price of oil, lot energy is doing good.
(38:33):
So if you buy the S and P spider energy
sector and the symbol on that is x l E.
So if you like the sounds of it, you think
that the conflict is going to continue to keep oil
prices up and you feel that energy is a place
to be invested. If you buy x l E, you know,
(38:54):
the top ten holdings account for over fifty percent of
you know, the the sector. You know, like if you
wanted to buy Exon, it's almost a quarter of the
x L E. So if you buy xl E, twenty
five percent of that holding is Exxon Mobile, fifteen percent
(39:17):
is Chevron, seven percent Conico, Phillips, five percent, Williams Companies
and so forth. So you're getting some good energy companies
without having to choose which energy company do you think
will will will do well? If you know the key,
folks is whether it be energy or healthcare or technology,
(39:38):
buy the sectors. This is what we do. When we
want to overweight, we will we will tactically buy different sector,
you know, for wherever we want to be overweight, like
right now we're overweight technology. And you hear me say
this often until the day I'm mentally incompetent or retired
(40:03):
or not with you, you know, I'll always make sure
we're overweight technology. Why technology is not going anywhere. Technology
and a lot of our technology holding is with QQQ.
Believer it or not. QQQ is is really just a
(40:25):
great holding, and I think sixty five percent of it
is technology. And when you look at QQQ, you know,
if you look over the last fifteen years, year in
year out, with all the crazy headlines, your average return
was almost nineteen percent, almost nineteen percent. And if you
(40:49):
look at the S and P five hundred, which is
really the broad stock market, you know, over the last
fifteen years about just shy of fourteen percent. That's why
we like technology and QQQ is a good way of
playing technology. You can really get good exposure in QQQ
(41:09):
with technology. And as I said, over the last fifteen years,
nineteen percent year in, year out, and that includes you know,
we've had a couple down years, folks. You know, if
you look in twenty and eighteen, we were down zero
point one to two percent would be due a day, right,
But in twenty twenty two you were down thirty two
almost thirty three percent. That did not feel good. And
(41:32):
if you sold, it's too bad because in twenty twenty
three you were up fifty five percent and twenty twenty four,
you're up almost twenty six percent. So why you know,
if I can teach you one thing, and year to date,
as they said, QQQ is up about three percent. If
I can teach you anything, Folks, do not panic when
(41:53):
it comes to volatility. Do not If you're a long
term investor, hang in there. So nineteen percent year in
year out over the last fifteen years, the S and
P of four just shy of fourteen percent. And for
those conservative investors that add bonds, you know, if you
look at the bond index, which is similar to the SMP,
(42:15):
but it's obviously the I Shares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF,
if you look at that over the last fifteen years,
your average return is two point two percent. So you know,
anybody who comes into the office, whether it be a
prospective client or a current client, I let them see
(42:36):
my portfolio. I have no problems showing them my portfolio.
And I'm one hundred percent invested in the stock market.
And I tell them I don't expect my clients to
follow that. I'm in it because I'm very comfortable with stocks.
It doesn't scare me whatsoever. When when I see volatility
(42:57):
as I said, if anything, we look at volatility an opportunity.
We really truly look to take advantage of volatility. We
sometimes will we balance the portfolios. We'll get into some
areas of the market that might have been more expensive
that now is obviously more on sale, more attractive to us.
(43:19):
So don't be afraid of volatility. And if you see
your portfolio down a little bit, do not do not
let it boby it, do not let it get to you.
If you're a good investor, just ride it out. Folks,
remember what I said a few moments ago. Fourteen percent
is your average swing in the stump market front pick
the trough from high to low. Your average swing is
(43:42):
fourteen percent a year over the last forty four years.
And you know the market. You know, I think the
market was down nine out of those forty four years,
so you know there were some years where it's down.
But you know, I just tell you the S and P.
Fourteen percent a year an average return over the last
(44:04):
fifteen years. And there's been a lot of headlines that
might make you nervous, wondering, scratching your head. Why do
I own stocks? Why should I own stocks? It's too
it's too risky. Well, would you rather over the next
fifteen let's make believe that history repeats itself over the
(44:24):
next fifteen years. Would you rather make fourteen percent in
the S and P year in year out, taking some
volatility or two percent in the bond market? Give me
fourteen percent all day long. That's why I'm not afraid
of stocks when the market goes down. I never look
at my portfolio. I know my team has me in
(44:46):
good investments. I know Ryan and Powell, Ed and Casey
and Dave do a great job picking the investments, and
they meet every week. I know we have a solid,
solid portfolio, and I'm not afraid of stocks when they
go down. And you know, we'll make changes in the portfolio.
Sometimes we're a little bit more let's say aggressive. We
(45:08):
believe in the market. Sometimes we get a little bit
more conservative it we feel that the markets may, you know,
go through some volatilty. We will. We will use all
of that to our advantage. And you know you'll see
us overweight underweight different areas of the market. And we're
fully invested right now. What I mean by that is,
(45:29):
if you're in our growth and income strategy sixty forty
portfolio we are fully invested in that. You know, we
are target sixty percent stocks. We are invested sixty percent stops.
We're not holding on to cash because we're underweight stocks.
We are fully invested, and we like bonds right now.
And those guys have alternative assets in as part of
(45:52):
the bond fixed income side of the equation, and they've
done well. You know, we we we we we've done
well with our alternatives. You know, one of our one
of our key alternatives is the JP Morgan equity Premium
ATF and god, this, you know, this has done really
(46:16):
really well for us. You know, it's it's it's it's
got a good dividend yield. You know, I can't forget
to tell you how much alpha, how much better returns
we have because of it. And we're you know, we're
not afraid of it. And you know, the performance has
(46:37):
been you know, it's it's been pretty good. Now. It's
it's you know, fairly new. It just came out a
few years ago. So in twenty twenty one it was
up twenty one percent. Twenty twenty two it was down
three point five percent, but remember bonds were down thirteen percent,
so being down three point five compared to bonds, and
this is what we use it for. Is not bad.
(47:00):
Twenty twenty three we're up almost ten percent. Twenty twenty
four up twelve and a half percent, and you know
you're to date we're up as well. So there you
have it, folks, were coming up to the end of
the show. I can't believe that you're listening to Let's
Talk Money, brought to you by Bouchet Financial Group, where
we help our clients prioritize their help while we manage
(47:24):
their wealth for life. I thank you for tuning in today.
I can't thank you enough. Come back tomorrow morning, eight
o'clock we'll be back on and enjoy this day, enjoy
the sunshine. Thank you for listening.
Boy, Julie, I hate to end this music. Let's keep
it on for a couple seconds. It's kind of catchy,
isn't it. I don't know if you know those people,
but I used to play the saxophone the way back
when I sure didn't. Well, good morning, here we are
on a nice sunny day. When was the last time
(00:29):
that I said that? On the weekend June twenty first,
twenty twenty five, and we had sun, warmth, a little
heat out there. I was up early Stewart's grabbing my papers.
Then I grabbed a coffee. I sat on my bench,
which I do every morning, and kind of, you know,
I'll just clear the air, my own way of meditating,
(00:52):
let's say. But right now I'm live with you. I'm
Stephen Bouchet. I'm your host. I've been your host for
thirty years and I love doing the radio. And if
you have any questions, any questions whatsoever, one eight hundred
Talk WGY, one eight hundred Talk WGY. That's one eight
(01:14):
hundred eight two five five nine four nine one eight
hundred eight two five fifty nine forty nine. Any questions whatsoever, Folks,
give me a call. I would love, love, love to
talk to you. I mean that, you know, love is
a powerful word. But when I tell you I would
love to talk to you, I would love to talk
(01:34):
to you. So one eight hundred eight two five fifty
nine forty nine. So what a week we had. I'm
telling you why why the markets aren't down ten percent
after a week like this? I'm telling you if the
market's pretty resilient. This is why I'm optimistic about the market.
The market can handle a lot of volatility. The market
(01:57):
can listen. What the market doesn't like is surprises. And
we had a lot going on this week. He had
Israel hit Iranian oil and gas depots, and oil and
gold went up the Persian Gulf ship and continued. President
Trump left to Chise seven meeting early like in Irish
(02:21):
goodbye hello folks. And then after goodbye folks, is telling
Iranians to flee, you know, dayran and unconditionally surrender. He's
not fooling around. I guess over the next two weeks
we'll see if we're going to get into this conflict
(02:41):
with Iran that Israel's having. The administration reversed its retreat
on deportations and agriculture, hotels and restaurants interesting. The Federal
Reserve helped interest rates steady. No surprise there. FED Chair J.
Powell warned of infleetion and tear for risks Trump, as
(03:03):
I said, he's delaying his iron decision for two weeks.
So for the week, the S and P down point
one five percent, but QQQ, one of our top holdings,
up too tenths of a percent. That was nice, up
to tens of a percent QQQ. It's funny because the
entire NASDAK composite was down two tens of a percent,
(03:28):
but QQQ, I'm sorry, let me reverse that. Qq Q
was down two tens of a percent. The entire Nasdaq
composite was up two tens of a percent. So we
were down not even two tens of percent point oh two,
So two BIPs QQQ, And as I said, the S
and P was down point one five percent. Here today
(03:51):
though the S and P up one point five percent.
Better than being down. Folks always remember it's better to
be up than down. The the QQQ up almost three
percent and the entire NASDAT composite up seven ten percent,
So QQQ is the leader so far. Russell two thousand
and still down five and a half percent year to date,
(04:13):
but for the week it was up almost half a
percent of Russell two thousand. And you hear me say
this often. That's nice to see. That means that the
advancement in the market is broadening, and that's you want that.
You want to see the entire market do well, not
just the Magnificent seven and the big boys. You really
want to see the entire market do well. You know gold,
(04:36):
you know God that that that the all time high
was thirty four thirty one, and we sit here at
thirty three sixty eight, just under that, up twenty eight
percent year to date. Gold is crude oil. Obviously, with
the conflict over there in the Middle East, crude oil
is about seventy five dollars of barrow, up about four
and a half percent year to date. So there you
(04:57):
have it. This coming week we have on Monday, the
SMP Global releases both its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers
Index for June. The consensus is a fifty one reading
for the Manufacturing PMI and fifty two point seven for
the Services Both would be about one point less than
(05:19):
respective May figures. On Tuesday, we still have some quarterly
earnings coming in we have FedEx reporting and on Tuesday,
the esteem Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivers a semi
annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee,
and he will do the same before the Senate on Wednesday,
(05:42):
would be due, right, Yeah, we want to make sure
all those politicians in Washington are brought up the date
so they can drill and drill down and look like
fools on TV, which they do often. Sorry, politicians, I
didn't mean to take any wind out of your sale.
I know you think you're doing a good job for
the taxpayers, but you really aren't. And you know, Jay
(06:06):
Powell's holding holding tight. You know, President Trump wants once
he wants some interest rate cuts, and he wants them now,
and he wants them big. He doesn't go anything, he
doesn't do anything small. President Trump wants some big tax cuts,
not tax cuts, but interest rate cuts. And Jay Powell's
(06:26):
holding steady. Actually, in his interview on Wednesday when he
came out, he say meet, you know every six weeks
or so, and they have a Tuesday, Wednesday meeting in
about two thirty. He comes out and kind of does
it recap him one report or ask what do you
think about, you know, we something like we step down.
I mean President Trump even said this week that he
(06:48):
would make a better Federal Reserve chair than Jay Powell.
Obviously that's just you know that, that's just Trump being Trump.
Sometimes you got to you got to just let them
be who he is. So you know, power wouldn't even
answer the question when it would not even entertain it.
(07:10):
On Friday, the Bureau of Economics and Analysis releases the
Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index from AY. Economists right now
are forecasting a two point three percent year over year increase,
about two tenths of a percentage point more than April.
The core PCE is supposed to come in around two
point six compared with two point five, so we'll see.
(07:32):
This is obviously the Feds, this is what they look
at more than they look at most other you know,
readings on the economy. So to be interested. That's on Friday, folks,
I'm going to take a quick fifteen second break. You're
listening to Let's talk money. The bone mines are open
one eight hundred eighty two five five nine four nine
(07:54):
one eight hundred eighty two five fifty nine forty nine.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
If you want to learn more about Bouchet Financial Group,
visit their website Bouche dot com. That's b O U
c h e y dot com. Sign up for their blog,
which is updated every week Stephenbouche dot com. Follow them
on Twitter at Bouchet Group. Like them on Facebook. The
phone lines are open eight hundred talk WGY. That's eight
(08:20):
hundred eight two five five nine four nine. Here is
Stephen Bouchet.
Speaker 1 (08:27):
Here. I am Stephen Bouche eighty two five five nine
four nine on the phone lines. If you have any questions,
give me a call. So how about the City Detroit
moving City Hall? And what a mess over there in
Troy on the river. But supposedly they're going to be
moving to the old Proctor site, which is really right
(08:49):
around the corner from our office. We're on Fifth and Broadway,
not Manhattan, but historic downtown Troy. That's where our Troy
offices are. And I'm in Saratoga. Were right on Broadway,
so I guess Broadway is popular for the Bouchet Financial Group. So,
and then Ryan obviously has an office in Boston that
we have, So that was big news to see that
(09:12):
that city Hall is going to move to Proctors the
old Proctor's site, and you know, people are wondering, is
as beautiful as it was melt There was a past
administration that sold that beautiful building for twenty five thousand
dollars to some idiot from New Jersey who stripped Proctors
of anything that that was worth anything. And long story short,
(09:37):
Proctors will never be what it was. And then he
left the place to rot. But that's how a lot
of politicians think. They don't think long term, They don't
you know, they just kind of give away assets. There
was a time in Troy when Troy was going to
give away the the water reserve. I mean, how crazy.
(10:01):
The decisions that some politicians make are just just crazy.
Eighty two five five nine four nine. So, as I said,
bright and early, I went to Stewart's to grab the newspapers,
and I didn't realize this came out, but in this
week's Barons there's a little article here about a buffet
(10:24):
plus basically an exchange trade of fun. That's that's aligned
with Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hackaway Halfaway Berkshire Hathaway boy. I
am tongue tied this morning. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Equity
portfolio and it's called Vista Shares Target fifteen. Berkshire Select
(10:46):
Income holds twenty one stocks twenty that are in Berkshire's portfolio,
plus ten percent of its assets are in Berkshire Class B.
And there's a little twist. Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend,
you know, And basically you know this is saying this
isn't me saying I haven't proven this yet. I'll have
(11:08):
my analysts look at it on Monday. But they're saying
there may be a fifteen percent target annual yield, which
is pretty good. I mean, one Buffet li wast at
ninety four years old, finally finally announced that he has
a successor. Took him a long time. He's been talking
about a successor for I think ten years since he
(11:28):
was eighty four, and we have a successor at the
end of the year that will be taking over for
Warren Buffet. He's a pretty good investor, folks, and he's
he's done well. Remember he didn't get into technology I
think twenty and eighteen and I think still the only
technology company he holds his Apple, and that's our number
one holding, Apple in Amazon or a number one and
(11:51):
two holdings, and I like them both, and believe me,
earlier this year they both took it on the chin.
They both they both had a hard time with it,
but long term, they're both great companies. I like both
of those companies and they're they're they're good companies. And
believe me, if you're wondering, hey, why don't I own
(12:12):
Apple or Amazon? Folks, if you own QQQ, all right,
you have your number one holding is Microsoft represents eight
percent of assets, Nividia almost nine percent of assets, Apple
represents seven and a half percent, and Amazon represents five
and a half percent. So if you own QQQ, you
(12:34):
do own Apple and Amazon indirectly. And the same with
the S and P five hundred, if you own the
S and P five hundred, which you know everybody should
own the S and P five hundred, or we own
actually the total stock market. We like the total stock market.
It gives us not only not only you know, large caps,
(12:54):
but it gives us mid cap and the small cap.
And if you own the SMP or the total stock market,
for the most part, the top ten holdings account for
about thirty six percent. Once again, believe it or not
no surprise, Microsoft, Navidia, Apple, and Amazon. So Apple makes
up about six percent of the SMP and Amazon makes
(13:16):
up about four percent of the SMP. So if you
own either of those those holdings in your portfolio, you're
you're invested in those big boys, and you have some
Apple and Amazon, So don't worry if you don't own individually.
Very few people really should be buying and selling individual stocks.
(13:38):
It's hard, hard, hard to make money buying and selling stocks.
I always say sixty five to eighty five percent of
the time. There's statistics on this where active stock pickers
cannot outperform their respective benchmark. And most most stock you know,
investments should be really should be compared to the SMP
(14:02):
or the total stock market. So there you have it.
We have an ETF long long way about explaining this
Berkshire Hathaway. So if you want some some Warren Buffett's ideas,
you can go out and buy this. This the shares
target fifteen Birdshire, you know, Attracks, Apple, As I said,
(14:25):
ten percent of the assets are in Berkshire b shares,
American Express, Coca Cola. You know, it's it's it's it's
not bad. What eight hundred eighty two five five nine
four nine one eight hundred eighty two five fifty nine
forty nine. Any questions, any questions whatsoever. I would love
to talk to you and get your pointed in the
(14:46):
right direction. Remember, you get one opportunity to retire, only one,
and if you're not prepared, you either have to continue
work it. Hopefully there's a place out there that will
hire you. You know, it's it's it's it's tough if
you're not prepared and you get to retirement age. You
hope that you're healthy enough. You hear me talk about
(15:06):
this often. Your health is really what matters, folks. Nothing
else matters if you don't have your health. Believe me,
and I say this, especially after last year. You know,
I had a change in my health and knock on wood,
I'm doing amazing health. You know, I'll never be able
(15:28):
to make up for losing my wife Sue a year ago,
almost thirteen months ago now, So I'll never be able
to you know, There'll always be that void. So this
is why you hear me say you often, and I
say it a lot of clients. We actually had a
prospective client this week and we were talking my colleagues
(15:50):
we're talking about. I actually was Marty who was saying,
you know, not only do we manage your your wealth,
and we do a really good job at manager on
our client's wealth. We have discretion. We have a great
investment team led by my son Ryan Pollo, La Pietra
at Wilhelm, Casey Bird and Dave Clark. They do an
(16:11):
amazing job picking investments and we're on top of it.
We're proactive, we're not reactive, and we don't get scared.
Very seldom we see us get scared. We don't care
if the market goes down. We don't care. If there's
some volatility, it does not scare us. If anything, it's
you know, volatility brings opportunity. If you're a good investor,
(16:33):
you'll take that volatility and you'll use it to your
advantage and make investment decisions in your portfolio that are
really good for your portfolio. Eighty two five, five, nine,
four nine. Give me a call with your question so
I can get your pointed in the right direction. So
you heard me talk a little bit about the Federal Reserve.
(16:54):
They held great study, but they said there's going to
be cuts later in the year. We'll Remember their data driven.
They look at just what every report that comes out
regarding inflation and Friday, as I said, the PCE is
coming out and that's their favorite indicator of where inflation's going. So,
(17:15):
you know, basically, the Fed kept interest rates at a
range of four point two five to four point five
for the fourth time this year, resisting pressure from President
Trump to cut them and others who feel that interest
rates should be cut. Remember why does the Fed cut
interest rates? They cut interest rates to stimulate the economy,
(17:36):
to get things going. If the economy looks like it's
stuck or you know, if we're stagnant, by cutting interest rates,
that should create you know, the the incentive for consumers
to spend more, borrow more. Obviously, the consumer makes up
(17:57):
two thirds of GDP and the consumers really the you know,
if it wasn't for the consumer folks, the consumers everything.
So when the consumers out there spending, so they cut
interest rates to get the consumer to spend. Why do
they raise interest rates to slow down in the economy
(18:17):
that's getting out of hand? Remember a couple of years ago,
inflation was nine point two percent nine point two and
they cut cut Now they were late cutting, but at
least they finally cut and we got inflation right now.
Depending on which indicator you look at, let's just say
it's between. I'm going to say two and a half
(18:39):
to three percent is really where inflation is. And you
know the Feds they're bound and determined they want a
two percent target. Why they got spoiled when we had
that financial collapse two thousand and seven through March of
two thousand and nine, you know, interest rates were low,
inflation was well, was unheard of, and you know, the
(19:03):
Fed kind of got greedy, let's call it. Now. If
you look over the last one hundred years, the last
fifty years, inflation averages about three point four percent a year.
So why is the Fed fixated on a two percent
target for inflation? Who knows? I don't know. I actually
do know one of the Fed governors, but I haven't
(19:24):
asked him yet. This summer I'll be with him and
I'm going to ask why they're intent on two percent target. So, well,
we'll see. So they get the interest rates study for
the fourth time, and you know, basically they said they
expect two cuts by year end. Seven of the Federal
(19:45):
Open Market Committee members now expect no cuts in twenty
twenty five. So there's nineteen members, only twelve vote, and
obviously Chair J. Powell is one of the well that votes.
But there's nineteen that talked this out and hash it out,
but only twelve vote. And basically Jerome Powell emphasized inflation
(20:09):
risks due to tariffs and reiterated the Fed's independence from
political pressure. They're not going to listen to politicians. They're
supposed to be completely independent from no matter who the
politician is. It doesn't matter. Every politician wants to be
part of interest rate policy and it's not their job.
(20:30):
They you know, the Fed Reserve Open Market Committee, it's
their job. And if J. Powell is standing his ground,
and he should stand his ground, he's the chair the
Federal Reserve, and until he's not the chair, you know,
basically he and his committee are are are doing it.
(20:51):
And right now I would say that the markets listen.
Right now, the markets think there's going to be cuts,
and if if they don't materialize, you could see the
markets react to that not in a favorable way. But
right now I think the markets are pretty much they
feel there's going to be cuts, and we'll see, you know,
(21:16):
I'm hoping there will be. I would love to see
the economy get going. I'm also in favor of tax
rate cuts. Folks don't don't don't believe that they're bad
for the economy. They're actually good for the economy. And
I would love to see this economy continue to grow.
I would love to see, you know, this great country
(21:36):
of ours do well and you know, people get jobs
and good paying jobs. That's one of the good things
that came out of COVID is you know minimum wage.
I remember we used to sit here on the radio
and say, ah, the FED may raise minimum wage at
ten dollars an hour, and all you know, businesses are
going to be running scared and they're going to be
(21:57):
closing left and right. Some businesses afford to pay higher wages,
but COVID, you know, the Fed didn't have to do anything.
COVID took care of that in order for company. I
don't care if it's Amazon, Walmart, Target, I don't care
if it's the local pizza shop or deli. If they're
not paying fifteen to twenty dollars an hour, and that's
(22:18):
starting salary with benefits and flexibility, they're not attracting any workers.
So you know, Covid kind of took care of that.
We don't have to worry about the FED raising the
minimum wage because cod Covid did that for us, and
companies have to do that. And you hear me say
this often. Listen, I'm a small business owner, and you know,
(22:41):
if the profits of the front are less because I
have to take care of my people, let it be less.
I'm okay with that. You know, my people deserve to
be able to go home, put food on the table,
pay a mortgage, pay rent. You know, Listen, they need
(23:01):
to have a good lifestyle, and I'm proud that I'm
able to afford that. So if the firm makes a
little bit less in profits because I'm taking care of
my people, so be it. That's okay. I'm very fine
with that. You know, that does not bother me at all. Folks,
you're listening to Let's Talk Money, brought to you by
(23:23):
Boucheting Answer Group, where we help our clients prioritize their
health while we manage their wealth for life. And I
hope you stick with me through the news. The phone
lines are open one eight hundred eight two five, five, nine,
four nine, one eight hundred eighty five fifty nine forty nine.
Any questions whatsoever, give me a call on the other
(23:45):
side of the news break. Let me hopefully get you
pointed in the right direction. I would love to talk
with you whatever the question is. Folks, listen, I used
to bartend, so I used to take a lot of questions,
marriage questions, relationship questions. Give it to me. One eight
hundred eight two five five nine four nine. Oh, I
love this music the last love it, love it, love it. Folks,
(24:10):
welcome back. Thank you for hanging in through the news.
I truly appreciate it. One eight hundred eight two five
five nine four nine one eight hundred eighty two five
fifty nine forty nine. I truly appreciate you tuning in
as you do every week for thirty years. Thirty plus
years now, I've been doing the show and it does
(24:31):
not get old. I love doing this show. When I
tell you I love doing the show, I get energized
doing the show. I do not mind doing the show.
Even on a beautiful sunny daylight today, it looks like
looks like we're gonna have a nice warm weekend. That's
a beautiful thing to have a nice warm weekend one
eight hundred eight two, five, five, nine, four nine, give
(24:53):
me a call with any questions you have. So you know,
hear and me talk a lot about health, and you know,
this week I find we found a good trainer, Danielle,
and she's right up the street from from me in
downtown Saratoga. And she worked me pretty hard. I'm going
right after the show, I got another session with her.
(25:16):
And when I tell you, she worked me hard. And
you know she checked on me the next day. I said,
you haven't killed me yet, but you're getting closes. We'll
see how you do on Saturday. So that feels good
to be building up my strength. I also did hot
yoga yesterday. I found the Hot Yoga studio in Saratoga.
I'm hoping to do that two three times a week.
(25:37):
And as they say, if you can't take the heat,
get out of the kitchen. And I'm telling you, hot
yoga is hot, baby, Hot hot yoga is is, but
it's good. You know. I just want to be able
to touch my toes. You know there's nothing wrong with that, right.
I guess what I'm saying is, let's take care of
your health. You need to take care of your help
(26:00):
one eight hundred eighty five five nine four nine, give
me a call. I love to talk yet Crypto, you know,
the only action you're going to get on the weekend
unless you're going to bet Game seven of the basketball
series tonight, which I don't really follow NBA basketball at all.
But Crypto bitcoins up, you know about one hundred and
(26:20):
four thousand. Not bad. I have Crypto in my in
my play account, my sandbox account, and you know I'll
share anything with your folks. I got a few what
we call sandbox accounts in the office where we play,
because everybody wants to play a little. Right when you
(26:40):
were a kid, you played in the sandbox. That's why
we actually stole the term from a client who came
in once. He says, can I move over the sandbox account?
I said, what do you mean? Sandbox account? He says,
you know I play a little. I said absolutely, and
we have We have stole on that line, and we
(27:01):
actually open up small accounts for clients I want to play.
So I have a few sandbox accounts, Crypto being one
of them. Ed Wilhelm is in charge of managing my
sandbox accounts. I am one with just the Magnificent seven.
I have another with you know stops. I'm a Tom
(27:22):
Lee fan. I love following Tom Lee. And he has
what he calls his Granny picks, So Ed tracks that
every month when he buys or sells. We and I
have some short term gains. And Ed said Steve, if
I rebalance this month, you're going to have some short
term gains. I said, Ed. You can't make money without gains, right,
Don't let the tail wag the dog, folks, It's okay
(27:45):
to pay taxes. If you're making money, it's okay to
pay taxes. And I'm making money in that sandbox account.
And then I have one that is just I play with.
Atfp's we manage about one point five billion. The only
two individual stocks we have is Apple and Amazon. Everything else, folks,
is exchange traded funds. That is really truly how we
(28:08):
manage our client's money. We do a good job, you
know the first half of the show, I said, Ryan
heads that up with Paolo la Pietra at Wilhelm, Casey
Bird and Dave Clark, and they do an amazing job.
And they they report to me every week, and I like,
I like what they what they do. So it's it's
(28:30):
you know, it's it's it's we manage money in a
very disciplined manner. I'm very proud of what we do.
One eight hundred eighty two five five nine four nine.
Before you go out on the lake or hit the links,
or take a walk, give me a call. One eight
hundred eighty two five fifty nine forty nine. We got
the US ten year Treasury at about four point three
(28:53):
almost four point four percent. That's still pretty good, folks.
You know, going back to what I said on the
first half of the show. After the financial collapse back
in two thousand and seven through March of two thousand
and nine, interest rates where there was no such thing
as interest rates. Interest rates were you know, they just
weren't around. So now you can buy a six month
(29:15):
get about four point three, a one year, four, five
year almost four, and a ten year four point four,
a twenty year if you're willing to go out that far,
it's actually a twenty year and thirty year. And you know,
I'm looking at these these rates on these long term bonds.
They're not bad. Almost five percent you're able to get
(29:36):
if you're willing to tie up your money for twenty
or thirty years, and I'm not sure that's you know,
that may be a good bet for those of you
that are laddering bonds. And why not buy treasuries they're
state tax free, so you know, you get even a
little bit more incentive. And right now there's some good
yields on unis, but make sure you buy safe munis,
(29:59):
good unis, and you know, be careful about the type
communities you buy. Don't buy immunity just because of the yield,
because that's what we refer to as high yield, which
you know, just like junk bonds, there's junk communi bonds.
You're you're you're basically loaning your money to something that
may not be worthy. Maybe you shouldn't be loaning your
(30:22):
money too when you buy a bond. That's basically what
you're doing the same as a CD. Folks, and you
walk in the front door of the bank and you
loan your money and you buy a CD, they're basically taken.
So they take your money, they're going to give you,
let's say four percent, and they're going to turn around
and loan that money to the person behind you, and
(30:46):
they're going to borrow money for car loan or mortgage
and pay six, seven, eight, nine, ten percent or more.
That's how banks make their money. So they pay you
for and then they turn and loan it back out
at a much higher rate. So there you have it.
So you know, the ten year almost four point four,
(31:07):
and as I said, the twenty years just shy of
you know, five, and the thirty years about four point nine.
Those those aren't bad interest rates. Don't be afraid of
ladder and some bonds. I spent a year now I've
been saying I actually like bonds' there's nothing wrong with bonds.
(31:28):
So you know the Fed. You know, folks, you got
listen to the geopolitical volatility. You know, the renewed Israel
and I ran, you know, the conflict, the US military
build up. You know, oil prices up eighteen percent since
June tenth. Right now we're near five month highs. Markets
(31:50):
have been crazy volatile because of global tensions, and for
the most part, equities have hung in there. The market's
been resilient. The US stock market is resilience. So what happens,
you know, obviously, if oil continues to go up, that's
a big, big factor when it comes to inflation. We
(32:12):
need oil, folks, whether you're putting gas in your car,
whether you're you know, getting ready to fill your your
your pro paine tanks for for this coming winter, whether
you take a bus to work, or you know you
have your your favorite pizza place, deliver your pizza. Oil
and gas it's a big, big part of inflation. And
(32:36):
you know, we'll we'll, we'll see what happens there. Hopefully
hopefully I ran backs down, and to be honest, hopefully
hopefully their nuclear abilities get demolished. I have no problems
saying that. You know, this world, we we we we
have to be a better place. We have to you know,
(33:00):
not have to worry all the time. So geopolitical, you know,
factors weighed in on the markets this week. You got
some people you know, there, there's there's there. There's one
guy out there forecasting a twenty five percent drop in
the S and P and a possible recession and twenty
twenty five I don't see that. You know, he's basically
(33:21):
saying there's week job openings, which there are, rise in
consumer debt, which there is, and sluggish housing. But I
my bet is that we're not going to have a
recession and I hoping that we don't see twenty five
percent trot. Remember, over the last almost forty four years,
(33:43):
a fourteen percent swing from peak to trough, from high
to low is you know, it's average stint. That's the
average swing in the stock market prices over the last
twenty four years. Year in year out, on average, you'll
see the market swing fourteen percent in any calendar year.
(34:06):
So do not let do not let volatility get to you.
One eight hundred eighty five five nine four nine. Give
me a call if you have anything you want to
talk about, you know, love to talk to you. One
eight hundred eighty five fifty nine forty nine. There was
a good article and in Barns about credit card perks.
(34:30):
They worth the higher fees, you know, basically premium credit cards.
You know, you know, if you get the right one,
you got access to airport lounges, rewards for travel. But
you know the cost of like the American Express right
now has an annual fee of six ninety five if
you get the AMX Centurion, if you're invited to get that,
(34:53):
you can't just get that better known as the black card,
that comes with a ten thousand dollars initiation fee and
then an annual fee of five thousand dollars year in,
year out. And you won't see that publicize anymore anywhere.
Amex doesn't really provide those details. They kind of keep
that as a secret. That that black card you got,
(35:16):
you know, Chase Sapphire Reserve one of the most popular.
They announced on June seventeenth that they're hiking their fee
forty five percent up to seventy ninety five, which means
you'll probably see American Express up thirs from six to
ninety five. You know, American Express always wants to be
(35:37):
the most expensive fee, so darn it. I have the
American Express Platinum Card and it's nice. I book a hotel,
I get a late checkout, I get free breakfast in
some of these hotels. That that's a lot. I get
an automatic upgrade. So I can obviously say, for me,
I get a lot of benefits with the American Express card.
(36:00):
For me. It's not for everybody, but for me, you know,
it's it's it's it's okay. You know, I'm good with it.
I think I get more benefits than then it costs me.
I get you know, credit towards Uber and you know, my, my,
what do they call it? Clear? We don't have an
(36:21):
an almuni, but in a lot of airports around the country,
and I do a fair amount of traveling. You basically
you scoot right through, you look into the little camera,
they take a picture, and they escort your right to
the front of the line. I like going to the
front of the line. So with the American Express, you know, basically,
(36:43):
you know, as I said, you get two hundred dollars
annual statement credit on you know, different hotel bookings credit
to you know, an airline if you book your your
flight twenty dollars a month digital entertained the credit fifty
dollars semi annual credit at Sacks, which I don't shot at,
(37:05):
but if I did, I guess maybe I should shot there,
you know, fifty dollars I might be able to get
a pair of socks. Who knows, but I didn't know
they it's in this article. I'm not making this sop.
It's right here in front of me and today's parents
that I got at Stuart's, my favorite store. The people
in Stuarts, you know, they're all partners of Stuart's. Gary
(37:26):
Dak and his day. I did a beautiful thing when
he set up that East stop. And people that work
at Stuart's are really partners and with that and they
really you know, they take care of their their their partners,
their their employees. But that's where I get my papers
every Saturday. One eight hundred eighty two five five nine
(37:48):
four nine. I'm going to take a quick fifteen second break.
Don't go anywhere. Hello, folks, I'm back. Thank you for
letting me wet my whistle. One eight hundred eight two
five five nine four nine. So before you go out
and spend all that money on credit card, you know,
make sure the perks are worth the high fees. It's
not for everybody. Make sure that it's that it's it's
(38:11):
it's it's worth it for you to pay those high fees.
Make sure you're going to get your benefits out of it,
and make sure that you know it's it's good for you.
And going back to you know, why do we use
energy or why do we use exchange traded funds? You know,
I'm just looking because energy has been you know, obviously
with the price of oil, lot energy is doing good.
(38:33):
So if you buy the S and P spider energy
sector and the symbol on that is x l E.
So if you like the sounds of it, you think
that the conflict is going to continue to keep oil
prices up and you feel that energy is a place
to be invested. If you buy x l E, you know,
(38:54):
the top ten holdings account for over fifty percent of
you know, the the sector. You know, like if you
wanted to buy Exon, it's almost a quarter of the
x L E. So if you buy xl E, twenty
five percent of that holding is Exxon Mobile, fifteen percent
(39:17):
is Chevron, seven percent Conico, Phillips, five percent, Williams Companies
and so forth. So you're getting some good energy companies
without having to choose which energy company do you think
will will will do well? If you know the key,
folks is whether it be energy or healthcare or technology,
(39:38):
buy the sectors. This is what we do. When we
want to overweight, we will we will tactically buy different sector,
you know, for wherever we want to be overweight, like
right now we're overweight technology. And you hear me say
this often until the day I'm mentally incompetent or retired
(40:03):
or not with you, you know, I'll always make sure
we're overweight technology. Why technology is not going anywhere. Technology
and a lot of our technology holding is with QQQ.
Believer it or not. QQQ is is really just a
(40:25):
great holding, and I think sixty five percent of it
is technology. And when you look at QQQ, you know,
if you look over the last fifteen years, year in
year out, with all the crazy headlines, your average return
was almost nineteen percent, almost nineteen percent. And if you
(40:49):
look at the S and P five hundred, which is
really the broad stock market, you know, over the last
fifteen years about just shy of fourteen percent. That's why
we like technology and QQQ is a good way of
playing technology. You can really get good exposure in QQQ
(41:09):
with technology. And as I said, over the last fifteen years,
nineteen percent year in, year out, and that includes you know,
we've had a couple down years, folks. You know, if
you look in twenty and eighteen, we were down zero
point one to two percent would be due a day, right,
But in twenty twenty two you were down thirty two
almost thirty three percent. That did not feel good. And
(41:32):
if you sold, it's too bad because in twenty twenty
three you were up fifty five percent and twenty twenty four,
you're up almost twenty six percent. So why you know,
if I can teach you one thing, and year to date,
as they said, QQQ is up about three percent. If
I can teach you anything, Folks, do not panic when
(41:53):
it comes to volatility. Do not If you're a long
term investor, hang in there. So nineteen percent year in
year out over the last fifteen years, the S and
P of four just shy of fourteen percent. And for
those conservative investors that add bonds, you know, if you
look at the bond index, which is similar to the SMP,
(42:15):
but it's obviously the I Shares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF,
if you look at that over the last fifteen years,
your average return is two point two percent. So you know,
anybody who comes into the office, whether it be a
prospective client or a current client, I let them see
(42:36):
my portfolio. I have no problems showing them my portfolio.
And I'm one hundred percent invested in the stock market.
And I tell them I don't expect my clients to
follow that. I'm in it because I'm very comfortable with stocks.
It doesn't scare me whatsoever. When when I see volatility
(42:57):
as I said, if anything, we look at volatility an opportunity.
We really truly look to take advantage of volatility. We
sometimes will we balance the portfolios. We'll get into some
areas of the market that might have been more expensive
that now is obviously more on sale, more attractive to us.
(43:19):
So don't be afraid of volatility. And if you see
your portfolio down a little bit, do not do not
let it boby it, do not let it get to you.
If you're a good investor, just ride it out. Folks,
remember what I said a few moments ago. Fourteen percent
is your average swing in the stump market front pick
the trough from high to low. Your average swing is
(43:42):
fourteen percent a year over the last forty four years.
And you know the market. You know, I think the
market was down nine out of those forty four years,
so you know there were some years where it's down.
But you know, I just tell you the S and P.
Fourteen percent a year an average return over the last
(44:04):
fifteen years. And there's been a lot of headlines that
might make you nervous, wondering, scratching your head. Why do
I own stocks? Why should I own stocks? It's too
it's too risky. Well, would you rather over the next
fifteen let's make believe that history repeats itself over the
(44:24):
next fifteen years. Would you rather make fourteen percent in
the S and P year in year out, taking some
volatility or two percent in the bond market? Give me
fourteen percent all day long. That's why I'm not afraid
of stocks when the market goes down. I never look
at my portfolio. I know my team has me in
(44:46):
good investments. I know Ryan and Powell, Ed and Casey
and Dave do a great job picking the investments, and
they meet every week. I know we have a solid,
solid portfolio, and I'm not afraid of stocks when they
go down. And you know, we'll make changes in the portfolio.
Sometimes we're a little bit more let's say aggressive. We
(45:08):
believe in the market. Sometimes we get a little bit
more conservative it we feel that the markets may, you know,
go through some volatilty. We will. We will use all
of that to our advantage. And you know you'll see
us overweight underweight different areas of the market. And we're
fully invested right now. What I mean by that is,
(45:29):
if you're in our growth and income strategy sixty forty
portfolio we are fully invested in that. You know, we
are target sixty percent stocks. We are invested sixty percent stops.
We're not holding on to cash because we're underweight stocks.
We are fully invested, and we like bonds right now.
And those guys have alternative assets in as part of
(45:52):
the bond fixed income side of the equation, and they've
done well. You know, we we we we we've done
well with our alternatives. You know, one of our one
of our key alternatives is the JP Morgan equity Premium
ATF and god, this, you know, this has done really
(46:16):
really well for us. You know, it's it's it's it's
got a good dividend yield. You know, I can't forget
to tell you how much alpha, how much better returns
we have because of it. And we're you know, we're
not afraid of it. And you know, the performance has
(46:37):
been you know, it's it's been pretty good. Now. It's
it's you know, fairly new. It just came out a
few years ago. So in twenty twenty one it was
up twenty one percent. Twenty twenty two it was down
three point five percent, but remember bonds were down thirteen percent,
so being down three point five compared to bonds, and
this is what we use it for. Is not bad.
(47:00):
Twenty twenty three we're up almost ten percent. Twenty twenty
four up twelve and a half percent, and you know
you're to date we're up as well. So there you
have it, folks, were coming up to the end of
the show. I can't believe that you're listening to Let's
Talk Money, brought to you by Bouchet Financial Group, where
we help our clients prioritize their help while we manage
(47:24):
their wealth for life. I thank you for tuning in today.
I can't thank you enough. Come back tomorrow morning, eight
o'clock we'll be back on and enjoy this day, enjoy
the sunshine. Thank you for listening.
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