Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
New all time highs. And that's where we're at. The
market's been making a whole lot of new all time highs. Sure,
the S and PS twenty five percent up from the
bottom back in April, and NASTAC is up thirty five
percent from the bottom in April. And that's what happens.
That comes with the territory of investing. And you can't
(00:21):
be scared.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
And if you are, or if you have questions related
to your portfolio, the phone lines are open one eight
hundred talk WGY one eight hundred.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
Eighty two five five nine four nine. I thank you
for taking time out of your day to tune in.
I always thank you because it's so important. I get
so energized doing the show. And as I said, if
you have any questions, not only do you have meat today,
but you have ed. Wilhelm, our portfolio trader, who just
(00:54):
passed the Level one CFA exam. And when I tell you, folks,
it's probably one of the hardest exams there is to
pass ed is well on his way to being a
certified financial analyst. So I have ed with me today.
And if you have questions one eight hundred eight two
five fifty nine forty nine. Hey, Ed, how are you.
Speaker 3 (01:18):
Good, Steve? I'm doing good. I had good fourth and
definitely good timing celebrating my CFA good.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
Well, you know, I arranged fireworks all throughout the country
yesterday for you, Ed, and you know, just to help
you celebrate more. So I hope you enjoyed the fireworks.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
Oh I did? I appreciate that?
Speaker 1 (01:38):
Yeah. Well, you know it's not easy to pull off,
especially when you're coordinating it right across the country. But
I said, listen, Ed passed this level one exam. We
have to be good to him. Let's let's give him
some fireworks so he knows how special it is. And
believe me, yet, it was special for you to ask that.
So the fireworks were all throughout the country just for you. Ed.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
Oh, when you're Stevie B you can make that happen.
Speaker 1 (02:05):
Ah. Well, I'm not sure about that. I have a
horse racing today, Ed, And for the listening audience, if
you're going to be at Saratoga, look for me. And
if by chance you're watching the races. In the tenth
race intellect three to one, it's the Kelso Stakes race.
So hopefully he came in second and the poker stakes
(02:27):
on Belmont week. Hopefully he'll come in with the win today.
Chad Brown trains him, and Flabby and Pratt will be
on the saddle, so we'll see what that is. And folks,
I'm here to talk about money, and I can tell
you horses are just a hobby. They are not an investment.
They are not anything to be taken lightly. That's why
(02:49):
there's so many great partnerships and syndicates where people that
want to get involved in horses can just get in
with as little money as possible. Especially this racehorse doc Huh.
You know, if you're always been wanted to always wanted
to be a horse enthusiast, it's really an easy way
to get into it. Horse race dot Com is one
(03:10):
of the you know, it's really one of the up
and coming syndicates. They got some really great horses. One
of the horse that I used to own, Pooka, who
now has you know, she was the mom to door Knock,
the mom to Maije. She you know, the mom Tabriel
who came in third place in the Derby and the Belmont.
(03:33):
So she's got quite the resume. Race horse dot Com
owns half of her, so that's that's how you want
to get in it. I do not recommend you go
out and buy horses. As I said, it's a hobby.
Some guys buy horses, other guys by restaurants. We all
have fun, but we all get right offs. Eight eight, two, five, five,
nine four nine. Folks, give Ed and I a call.
(03:56):
We would love to talk to you. So, Ed, we
had a pretty good week in markets. As I said,
you know, the S and P's up twenty five percent
from the rose in April. This week it was up
one point seven two percent, and year to date we're
up just about seven percent over seven percent, with dividends
making new all time highs this week. Nasdaq Composite up
(04:18):
one point six to two. QQQ up one point five
zero And you know the Nasdaq composite year to date
is up six point seven percent QQQ, which is, folks,
when you're buying the NASDAK, you're not buying the entire composite.
You're buying the one hundred largest companies in Nasdaq through
the symbol QQQ, and that's up nine percent year today.
(04:41):
And then the winner for the week, Russell two thousand
and you hear you hear me say this often this
excites me more than anything, and that'll add to it
because it means that the market rally is not just
the Magnificent seven, It's not just the big dogs. It
means that we got some cats, small caps taking part. Welso,
(05:03):
two thousands up three point five to two percent this
week and year to eight, we're in positive territory up
point eight percent. I know it's only point eight percent,
but we're still up. We're not down. So what do
you think about those returns? Ed?
Speaker 3 (05:19):
Yeah, no, as you said, certainly a strong week for markets,
but I mean also just a very strong second quarter.
You know, it seems like just yesterday there is a
lot of uncertainty around around tariffs, and you know markets
had reflected that. But yeah, great second quarter, back to
all time highs. It's just why it's so important for
you know, investors to stay calm, don't worry too much,
(05:42):
can't look at your portfolio because over time, you know,
we've just seen it throughout the entire history of markets
that we do come back, and also small caps I agree.
Definitely probably one of the most exciting areas of this
last week. As you mentioned, you know, seeing some breath
come back to markets. It's not just led by those
mag seven. You know, if you think back to twenty
(06:03):
twenty three, that concentration was really the story. And that's
not a sign of a super healthy market. When you're
seeing small caps and those other companies doing well, that
shows that there's some money and confidence for the overall economy.
So that was really great to see.
Speaker 1 (06:19):
Yeah, yeah, I couldn't agree with you more. I say
it a lot on radio that you know, when those
mid camps and small camps are taking part in the rally,
that means the Raunley is really broadening out, and that's
what you want. You want, you know, want the entire
market to take part, not just a few parts of
(06:39):
the market. So it's nice to see that. Russell two thousand, really,
I mean up three and a half percent, and it
was a short week. We only have three and a
half trading days. The market closed at one o'clock on Thursday,
and then obviously for fourth of July it was closed
all day Friday, so it was a short trading week.
So it's nice to see the markets up. And we
(07:02):
had the jobs report ed, I mean we added one
hundred and forty seven thousand jobs. You know, just slightly
above the long run average, cooler than the one hundred and
forty to two hundred and six range that we've seen
in recent months. The unemployment rate dropped the four point
from four point two to four point one, that's the
(07:25):
lowest since February. And how average hourly earnings rose a
little bito point two percent three and a three point
seven percent year over year. So I guess we have
to ask at is this a sustainable slowdown or just
a mild cooling in an otherwise robust market. How much
(07:45):
of the drop in unemployment is a demographic shift versus
true job growth? And what will this mean for the Fed?
Will the Fed, you know, if they see the economy
slowing down a little bit, does that mean maybe we'll
get a rate cut or two or three before the
year is out?
Speaker 3 (08:05):
Yeah, it will certainly be interesting to see. As we
currently sit right now, we've got one cut priced in
for the year. Markets are expecting it to come in September.
Probably hold steady. Now, if we keep seeing strong job
reports like this, you know, it certainly opens the window.
(08:26):
So's it's good to see. And you know, we've known
that overall the labor market isn't a pretty good place.
You know, we've seen some softening, but ultimately we're really
at long term averages for unemployment. There's really not too
much of concern there.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
Yeah, and you know, we know that the Fed is
data driven. They look at just love everything and anything
that comes out on the economy. The minutes are going
to be released this week, so we'll see what they
really said in their meetings. They never really tell us
until weeks after the meetings, and by then so many
(09:01):
other things are factored in, so we don't know what
they're they're really thinking. But I know President Trump would
love to see them cut and cut big they you know,
Trump feels that the rest of the world is cutting
interest rates, why aren't we? But J. Powell and the
Open Market Committee is fixated on doing their job. They
(09:22):
are not politically driven. They are completely independent. No matter
how many threats President Trump makes towards them, they really
will do their thing. But unfortunately they are too data driven.
I mean, I said it a couple of years ago,
when inflation was at nine point two percent ed and
you and I and everybody listening were paying more at
(09:45):
the gas pump, more and the grocery stores more everywhere.
But the FED felt that inflation was transitory. That was
their words, not mine, And even the White House back
then the past administration said the exact same thing. Janet
Yellen came out and said, oh, yeah, this is just temporary. Well,
there was nothing temporary about it. But they had their
(10:06):
noses so far into their textbooks and they never came
up to see the light of day. They never really
got hold of what reality truly is because they don't
live in that world. They don't go out and you know,
be with the people and talk with the people and
roll their sleeves up and try to walk Main Street
(10:27):
and just get a good feel for the economy and
what the American people are feeling. So there was nothing
transitory about it. And you know, we know we had
so many interest rate hikes to cool off inflation, and
now are they late to the party. You know, we
had a cut, but do we need some more cuts?
(10:49):
In hindsight, everything's crystal clear, will see. But as I said,
you know, the FED really needs to take a break
and their nose out of the textbook and kind of
get a sense for reality, not just what history has taught.
Then and hopefully the FED will get this right. I
(11:10):
know they were aggressive about cooling inflation from nine point two.
Here we are. I don't know which indicator you want
to look at, but we're somewhere between two point five
and three percent inflation, and the FED has a target
of two percent. I'm actually going to be with one
of the FED governors in the next week or so,
(11:31):
and I plan on asking him why the FED has
a target of two percent. He's a friend of mine,
and I want to ask him why the FED has
a target rate of two percent when over time inflation
has averaged three point four percent. I don't care. If
you look the last fifty years, the last one hundred years,
inflation was over three percent on average. So why two percent?
(11:53):
Did they get greedy after the financial collapse of two
thousand and seven through March ninth of two thousand and nine.
Did they get used to no inflation and interest rates
being almost at zero and they felt those were the
good times? I don't know if we can go back
to a true two percent inflation rate, but I do
plan on asking my friend and just hopefully he'll share
(12:16):
with me why the FED is fixated on that. Any
thoughts on that Ed.
Speaker 3 (12:24):
I'm sorry I cut out there for a second.
Speaker 1 (12:25):
Unfortunately, don't cut out again. And Ed, come on, we
just got young. You've never been on the radio with me.
I mean, I've been looking forward to this all week long.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
I know it seems we're actually having a couple issues
with the server here. It seems in the office.
Speaker 1 (12:42):
Well that's too bad. We'll have to get that work
done Monday. But anyway, you know, it'll be interesting to
see what the FED says in their minutes. Folks. If
you have any questions for Ed or I, give us
a call. The phone lines are open. We would love
to talk to you. One eight hundred eight two five
(13:02):
five nine four nine. One eight hundred eighty two five
fifty nine forty nine. Any questions whatsoever, Dellieah, I'm going
to take a quick fifteen second break. Don't go anywhere, folks. Hello, folks,
I am back.
Speaker 2 (13:17):
Thank you for tuning in today, Thank you for tuning
in every week.
Speaker 1 (13:22):
I wanted to just take a quick break. And you
know I have Ed Wilhelm on with me today. So
if you have any questions for us, give us a call.
One eight hundred eighty two five five nine four nine. So,
Ed you know, what's your take on the FED and
(13:42):
interest rates.
Speaker 3 (13:45):
Yeah, I think you brought up a good point with
them being late to the party, you know, when we're
seeing that high levels of inflation. I think that's part
of the reason Jerome wants to be so cautious on
the back end, because he knows he was a ready
late to the party, and I think he's a little
bit scared of, you know, tarnishing his reputation because as
(14:05):
we know this, he probably will not be put back
in the seat. If Trump has any sort of weight
at all, there's a zero percent chance. So yes, definitely
hoping to see a rate cut. I think the window
is open for him, certainly. It's they've emphasized over and
over and over again that they need to see consistent
(14:30):
low prints of inflation, and I think over the few
months we've seen that without too much fear. You know,
we also know that a lot of companies are having
a hard time passing on tariffs to consumer, so at
the end of the day, that you know, hurts their
margins a bit, but it doesn't hurt the consumer with inflation.
So I think the windows there and we'll definitely get
(14:50):
one cut and maybe they'll be able to squeeze in
two again. It's just so data dependent, so it's tough
that we could really get a you know, print this month,
and you know, if it did come back, it's the
story changes quite quickly.
Speaker 1 (15:02):
Yeah. Well, you know, as I said, I'm anxious to
see what you know, my friend who's who's one of
the board of governors in the Open Market Committee, what
he says about inflation. I just don't understand why they're
so you know, determine to get inflation down to two percent.
(15:24):
I just don't know how that can happen, especially now
since COVID, you know, minimum wage went from eight nine
dollars to you know, heck, these companies, if they're not
paying fifteen to twenty dollars, they're not even getting people
to Look. I just went to Stewart's this morning to
get my papers, and there's a big sign that they're
looking for overnight help twenty dollars an hour with benefits
(15:48):
twenty dollars an hour. There was a day five years
ago or so those jobs would be seven eight nine
dollars an hour. There was just talk about, you know,
how the if the FED raised the minimum wage to
a level of ten dollars or more. It would hurt
so many small businesses. Well, unfortunately, a lot of businesses
(16:09):
do get hurt with high labor costs. But unfortunately it's
the way of the world. And to be honest that
I think it's only fair that workers get paid a
decent wage so they can provide for their family, put
food on a table, paid rent, and put gas in
their car. It's only right that that that happens. So
(16:31):
just wages alone being so high, that's one of the
big reasons why I feel that the Fed is they
had their targets set too low. But we'll see. And
it's funny. You know, Donald Trump doesn't like J. Powell,
But Donald Trump nominated J. Powell the services sixteenth share
of the Federal Reserve back in twenty and seventeen, and
(16:54):
he was confirmed by the Senate and you know, twenty
January twenty third two in eighteen. So it's crazy. Now
I agree with him. If Trump has this way, I
don't think your own power will be there. We know
Trump is a real school yard bully when it comes
to what he wants, and that you know, there's good
(17:15):
and bad in that. Obviously, the good is that that
he gets things done. I mean, he hasn't wasted time.
God does he get things done. And you know, just
being an office five and a half short months, you
know what he's accomplished would would would take some administration
(17:36):
years to accomplish. So I'm optimistic. On the economy, I
say all the time, teriffs do not scare me. Yet
I feel that at the end of the day, they're
going to be good for this great country of ours.
And you know, it's only fair that other countries pay
their fair share. There is nothing wrong with that. So
(17:57):
you know, Trump came out, I mean was once again
as a schoolyard bully. He tries to scare people. I mean,
We're not going to have one hundred and forty five
tariffs on China. He's already negotiated with China and Vietnam
and other especially Pacific RIM countries. So I'm optimistic that,
(18:19):
you know, the policies in place are going to be
good for this country. And I think our country is
going to be back on sure footing. And I do
not I do not folks say that politically speaking, I
could care less about politics. I could care less who
is in office. All I care less about is who
will lie to me the least. That's who I vote for,
(18:41):
who I think will lie to me the least. And
I'm not a Republican. I'm not a Democrat. I could
care less what the party is. Although it's interesting Elon
Musk and Donald Trump are having a little cap fight,
and now Elon Musk is I think going to try
to start a new party. I mean, is whatever happened
(19:02):
between him and Trump. They're just not holding hands anymore
walking in tomorrow Lago. They're you know, they're they're in
an all out cat fight. But you know, there's nothing
wrong with third party either. And you know, forget the
Democrats and forget the Republicans and that that hard line
(19:23):
that they take. You know, Let's do what's right for
the country. Let's do what's right for the people of
this country, especially the people that are working hard.
Speaker 3 (19:34):
Yeah, speaking about tariffs, it's interesting coming up on the ninthier,
we're going to have the ninety day pause, so you know,
that could certainly serve as a catalyst, you know, potentially
either direction for markets. But that should be exciting. If
he goes to extend them, should definitely see a nice boost. Yeah,
I was looking at some data earlier this week too,
(19:56):
and the revenue that those tariffs have already started generating
is going to be forecast to be pretty strong. So
that was that was exciting to see. It ended up
being a pretty strong boost to GDP forecasts. So that
was the big area. You know, we saw them come
way down and there were some recession fears, and as
we started to get more data and you know, started
(20:16):
looking pretty good.
Speaker 1 (20:18):
Yeah. No, I'm as I said, I'm optimistic. And listen,
whenever the market goes down, I try to help educate
and coach the listening audience that that's all right, it's
all right when the market goes down. And what do
we say, ed We say that, you know, market corrections
and bear markets are opportunities. We don't get scared. We
(20:40):
actually we kind of get giddy about it because it
allows us to maybe rebounce the portfolio, get into areas
that were more expensive. And investors should never never get
worried about market corrections. I give this statistic often over
the last forty four years, the average swing in the
market peaked the high to low has been about fourteen percent.
(21:03):
Fourteen percent swings in the market comes with the territory.
And at the low point in April, the S and
P was off about just about twenty percent, almost touching
bear market. NASDAK was off more than twenty five percent.
And here we are. You know, NASDAK has recovered thirty
five percent or the SMP has recovered twenty five percent
(21:28):
from their lows. So you know, there's more reason to
be optimistic about being a long term investor with stocks
as an asset class in your portfolio than not.
Speaker 3 (21:38):
Yes, exactly. I mean, I'll tell you as trader, Steve
definitely a lot more excited when we're in a little
bit of a downturn. Gives me a little bit more
work to do, and as you said, it really is
an opportunity. You know, markets go up a lot more
than they go down. We've seen that throughout history and
so it's a lot more exciting for me in my role.
(21:59):
Also awesome statistic I've seen that if you invested every
single time CNBC came out with their markets and turmoil.
Speaker 1 (22:08):
You know what, ed I want you to hold that thought.
You're listening to Let's Talk Money, brought to you by
Bouchet and Andrew Group, where we help our clients prioritize
their health while we manage their wealth for life. Give
us a call, folks. One eight eight two, five, five
nine four nine, see you on the other side of
the news. We're really get into this music. Hello, folks.
(22:49):
Thank you for hanging in through the news, thank you
for listening to this great music that Julia is playing
for us, and thank you for tuning in. I can't
thank you enough. Every week you make this show a
joy to do. I get energics and excited doing it
thirty years now every weekend, and sometimes my colleagues do
(23:11):
come in and help out. But for the most part,
you know, I've been doing the show for a long, long,
long long time. Today I got one of my esteem
colleagues at Wilhelm, our portfolio trader, on his way to
becoming a CFA, which is one of the hardest credentials
to get just past this level one exam. So if
(23:32):
you have any questions for Ed or I, I can
assure you we can get it answered with the best
of our ability. One eight hundred eight two, five, five
nine four nine one eight hundred eighty two five fifty
nine forty nine. So Ed, I know you started just
before the news break talking about CNBC, and you know,
(23:53):
I sometimes call CNBC financial plorn. Don't take offense to that, folks,
but you know, listen, there's a lot of entertainers on CNBC.
You should not be taking their investment advice at all whatsoever.
You cannot listen to some of the the jokesters on CNBC.
(24:14):
So ahead, go ahead, finish, start your story and finish
your story.
Speaker 3 (24:21):
Yeah, great, thanks Steve. I was just mentioning that if
you had invested in the S and P five hundred
every time CNBC had their Markets and Turmoil special, your
average return after one year would have been forty percent
and you would have had one hundred percent success rate.
So it just goes to show that the negativity is
what sells. And you know, they like to panic people,
(24:42):
that's what gets people tuned in and watching. But it's
really just important for investors to stay diligence, stay calm,
and don't panic.
Speaker 1 (24:52):
Yeah, now that's a great statistic, you know, folks, As
Ed and I said in the first half of the show, listen,
when there's volatility, get excited like we do about it.
You know, look at that volatility is an opportunity, it's
not a liability to you. It's not holding you back. Listen,
(25:14):
you only lose money if you get scared and you
sell out of your investments. Then absolutely you lost and
you can't go back and recover. I tell the story
ed every once in a while on radio. A couple
of years ago, when the market was really down after
inflation hit nine point two percent, we had that client
that called us and he said, Steve, I just can't
(25:36):
take it anymore. I don't want to lose any more money.
I'd like to have you sell out of the market,
and then when the market goes back up, let's get
back in. And I kind of just paused, and I
listened and took it all in and I said to him,
are you kidding me? He says, what do you mean, Steve?
(25:57):
I said, I just want you to think about what
you asked me to do. You want me to sell
out now, why the market is probably at the bottom,
and then wait till the market goes back makes a
new all time high, and then you want to get
back in. Does that even sound logical to you? And
he thought about it. Oh, I guess not, Steve. I
guess that's why I hired you in the first place.
(26:20):
So you know, we we really work hard to when
when when a client say listen, No matter how much
we help educate and teach and hold our clients' hands,
you know, clients are human just like every other investor,
and when they see paper losses, they get they get scared,
(26:40):
and you can't blame them. They have a heart. And
you know, the thing that we take out of the
equation mostly folks, is we take that emotion out of
the decision making process. So we have a heart too,
But we're getting paid to think rationally with information, thinking
with our head, not with our heart. So it's only
natural for investors that think with their heart and get
(27:02):
scared and think that the world's coming to an end,
and it's not coming to an end. The world still
continues to go on. And I guess if the world
came to an end, would it matter. Probably not. What
you can't do is you can't panic. You can't have
knee jerk reactions and sell out of your portfolio when
the markets are down. Did I lose you in?
Speaker 3 (27:26):
So sorry? I'm here, yep, I'm here. Can you guys
hear me?
Speaker 1 (27:30):
Yeah? Yeah, I misschip. You were going for a couple
of seconds.
Speaker 3 (27:35):
Oh, I was just captivated by your speech, but no,
I think nail on the head definitely. That's where we
add probably the most value to our clients. It's truly,
you know, kind of acting as that sort of fitness coach,
you know, and keeping them making logical decisions.
Speaker 1 (27:50):
Yeah, and you know, I tell the listening audience a
lot at that first and foremost. You know, it's funny
you use the analogy fitness coach, because it's your health
first and foremost. When you have your health, you have everything, folks.
And if you have your loved one, you're pretty dawn lucky.
And if financially you can make things happen and do things,
(28:13):
don't mess around because you never know when your health
or this situation with your loved one may change. And
taking care of yourself is good and that's a great
way of putting it at That's what we do for
our clients financially speaking, is take care of them. We
like to say where our client's personal chief financial officer.
We really when a client engages our service, we truly
(28:37):
make sure that we're managing their wealth, we're managing their life.
We help them make we help them make different decisions
that maybe they wouldn't make on their own, and it's just,
you know, it's the right thing to do, folks. If
you have any questions, I'm going to take a quick
fifteen second break if you have any questions. One eight
(28:59):
hundred eight two five five nine four nine one eight
hundred eighty two five fifty nine forty nine. Hello, folks,
thank you for letting me take that quick break. I'm
sitting here with Ed Wilhelm, one of my colleagues, one
of my esteemed colleagues, and we would love to talk
to you with any questions you may have. One eight
(29:21):
hundred eight two five five nine four nine one eight
hundred eighty two five fifty nine forty nine. So you know,
we talk a lot about the Fed. FED officials. I
guess they still expect fifty BIPs half a percent great
cup this year. But you know the reason data you
(29:42):
know that may have them changing their mind, especially for July.
Mixed labor signals give the FED room to remain cautious.
We'll see what happens. We got wages rising modestly, job
gains still holding steady. Will the Fed pause or will
they cut Ed said in the first half of the
(30:03):
show that there's a chance that they are, you know,
basically going to cut. You know, we'll see what happens ed.
Ed has been on with me, but he's having technological difficulties,
so we're going to say goodbye to Ed. He's on
his way to Lake George anyway, you know, to be
young and have the fun that Ed has, Boy, it
(30:28):
makes me whistle. Dixie is such You know what's nice
about the colleagues I work with. Not only are they
amazing colleagues, true professionals, all twenty of them. They are
true professionals, but I enjoy doing things with them outside
of work, and I spend a lot of time. Try
to spend as much time with my colleagues as I can. So, Ed,
(30:51):
thank you for being on the show today. Go up
to Saratoga. Enjoy yourself. You know you deserve it. Ed
is a recent graduate three years ago from Sienna. He
was the captain of the rugby team, and he's from
the Midwest, but he went to school at Siena and he's,
(31:13):
you know, been having such a great time. His parents
actually just moved from the Midwest to the local capital
region area and his sister's here is well, so Ed
really has brought the family to this great area of ours.
I always say, we don't get hit with as many
problems from mother Nature as other parts of the country.
(31:35):
It's now pretty easy to get anywhere when you think
about it, within two and a half three hours, you
could be in New York, Boston, Montreal. You can get
some decent flights out of Aubany International Airport. My daughter
brought me to the airport a couple of weeks ago.
I said, Lauren, do you know why they call it
the Aubany International Airport. She said why, Dad, I said,
(31:55):
because there used to be one flight that went to
Toronto and that made it the Aubany International Airport. Eight eight, two, five, five,
nine four nine. Let's go to the phone lines where
we had Lisa calling in from New York. I guess
in New York City. Hello, Lisa, Hi, thank you for
(32:17):
taking my call.
Speaker 4 (32:18):
I'm never called before, and I don't know if I
have enough next day to invest to even be talking
to you guys.
Speaker 1 (32:28):
Well, you know what, Lisa, that's what's nice about doing
this show every week, because this is, believe it or not,
a way for me to get back to the community.
I believe in it so so much. I mean, this
past week I saw a family, three young children and
their mother asking money for food. The kids were tearing up,
and I truly believe them. I went it back into
(32:50):
my pocket three times. I couldn't give them enough money.
And see, I mean the kids were just smiling from
ear to ear. And this is also doing radio is
my way of giving back to the community in other ways,
because I know there's a lot of listeners, maybe like you, Lisa,
that may not have enough money to meet our minimum,
but they need to get directed in the right direction,
(33:14):
pointed in the right direction. And that's why I'm here
to do the show. So tell me all about you, Lisa,
and then I'll tell you what you should do.
Speaker 4 (33:23):
Well. Most importantly, I do have somewhat of a nest egg.
I'm almost sixty five now, and I wanted to get
information about putting something into for my grandson. Is that
something that you kind advise me on?
Speaker 1 (33:40):
Yeah? Absolutely so. I mean there's different ways of doing
and how old your grandsony.
Speaker 4 (33:48):
Five years old, and I am a healthis faient. Make
sure whatever I do leave for him that his parents
aren't making very good choices. Of financial I want to
make sure.
Speaker 1 (34:04):
Yeah. So it's a great question, Lisa. And one of
the ways that we tell parents and grandparents to put
money away from minors, don't open up an account with
them on it. Basically open up a college savings plan,
especially with you saying, Lisa, how their parents just aren't
maybe making the right decisions. And you know, we'll take
(34:27):
that for what it is, so all the more reason,
when your grandson meets college age, you can put money.
You can put as little as twenty five dollars a
month away. And I always propose the New York College
Saves plan and why saves dot org is the website
and why saves dot org. Go there and you can
(34:49):
put money away for your grandson, open up an account.
You can be the beneficiary. Basically opening up the account.
I should say, your grandson will be the beneficiary. And
the beauty is, you know, if your grandson decides not
to go to college and does something else, you can
still get at that money. He can still get at
(35:10):
that money. There may be taxes old, but if your
grandson does go to college, and this may be an
incentive for him knowing that grandma really was saving for him.
To go to college. And even if his parents don't
coach him into going to college, maybe this will be
an incentive for him knowing that grandma put money away
in a college savings program and if it's used for
(35:32):
college expenses, it's all tax free. The growth of that
money and choose the aggressive model. So use the aggressive
model because at five years old, your grandson has years
for that money to grow. And I always like to say, folks,
when you have college savings plan and the beneficiary gets
(35:56):
to be a senior in high school, start making that
more conservative because what you don't want to happen. Let's
make believe you save one hundred thousand dollars and there's
a twenty percent market question and you need that money
now all of a sudden, one hundred thousands down to
eighty thousand. So when when, when that child is like
a senior in high school, then let you know, make
(36:21):
it more conservative so you don't have to worry about
the market dry rations and losing money anyway, Lisa, hopefully
that helps one eight hundred eight two, five five nine
four nine, one eight hundred eighty two five fifty nine
forty nine. Any questions that you have folks, give me,
give me a call. You know. In the first half
(36:44):
of the show, Ed talked a little bit about tariff
and tariff tensions and you know, waiting now. You know,
Medicaid cuts from the Senate budget may affect hiring and
healthcare workforce. The Trump administration is pushing for faster rate cuts,
not getting along with the Fed. And you know, basically, well,
(37:07):
we'll see what happens. As I said, when when things
happen that will happen. Will the FED pause at their
next meeting, will they cut who knows. I don't think
they'll be raising interest rates. There's no reason to raise
interest rates. But if they feel that the economy is
still doing well on its own, they may not need
(37:30):
to help it. And when they cut interest rates, folks,
that means they're trying to stimulate the economy, kind of
give a little catalyst for the economy, you know, spark
a flame, the spark of flame, you know, under you know,
the the economy, get the economy moving in the right direction.
(37:54):
Eight two, five, five, nine, four nine. So I'm told
that Ed is back on the line. Is that back
on the line.
Speaker 5 (38:04):
I am back and it feels good to be back.
Twenty of days where the technology is just not my friend.
Speaker 1 (38:10):
Yeah. Well, you know, we get so used to technology,
which is why we're overweight technology in our portfolios. Ed.
I mean, I'd like to say, in the office, as
long as I'm around, as long as I'm mentally competent,
as long as as I'm able to be in that office,
I think will always be overweight technology because technology has
(38:33):
just overcome our lives in so many ways. There's a
statistic one million robots Amazon employees while employees deploys one
million robots in its warehouse and soon that's there's going
(38:54):
to be more robots ED than there will be humans
in Amazon. I mean, hard to fathom a million robots
getting our orders and making it work. And that's you know,
that's that that's the future technology. Technology, technology.
Speaker 5 (39:14):
Yes, I mean you want your portfolio to grow, you
do want to grow? Tell them as your portfolio, and
you know, technology is definitely the best way to access that.
I don't I don't see, you know, a very bullish
market where technology isn't leading the pack.
Speaker 1 (39:28):
Yeah, in this AI, artificial intelligence is huge. Every once
in a while that I share with the listening audience
that if they haven't played with it. They really need
to play with it because it's so powerful, and you know,
just go and play with the folks. When when you
see how powerful it is, you'll know why why. I
(39:50):
really think artificial intelligence is here for a long time
and it's going to just artificial intelligence alone. There's another
statistic in this week's Parents how a lot of employers
just aren't looking to gear up hiring new employees because
artificial intelligence, they feel will will take over about fifty
(40:12):
percent of the white collar workforce. And when you think
about that, you just give it some thought. It's like,
what will the future look like? Now, we also knew
you may be too young for this said, but when
AOL came out, we thought that was the latest greatest
technological move and we thought that was going to be
forever and it was good. It kind of wetted our appetite,
(40:36):
but that was just the beginning. I mean, now we
got AI artificial intelligence, and you know, you know, people
are going to the movies less they're streaming their favorite
shows or movies on you know, whether it be Apple
or Netflix or whatever your favorite platform is. But there's
a lot a lot going on. So with our portfolios.
(41:00):
You know, I know you and Ryan who's our chief
investment officer, and Polo and Casey and Dave have been
doing a great job with our portfolios. I know we've
been buying individual bonds. These interest rates are still Listen,
the tenure treasure yield is still right now at about
(41:21):
four point three percent, and you know, sure it's not
the five percent we saw not too long ago, but
four point three is a whole lot better than the
one and a half percent we saw just a few
years ago. Right now, you can get a twenty year
note for almost four point nine percent, and the one
(41:44):
year's yielding just four percent. So those aren't bad yields.
And when it comes to bonce, folks, a lot of
people add bonds to their portfolio because they want to
soften the volatility. It really doesn't reduce the risk because
there's risk in bond as well as in stocks. You know,
if you look at the bond market over the last
ten years, there were three two years where bonds actually
(42:10):
lost money. Guess what. When you look at the SMP
over the last ten years, guess what, there were two
years where investors lost money. So there you have it, folks.
You don't always make money in bonds either. And if
you look at your fifteen year average return in bonds,
if looking at the the I Shares Core US Aggregate
(42:31):
Bond ETF, it's like the SMP index for stocks. It
represents a lot of bonds. Your average fifteen year return
year in, year out two point eight percent. Now, to
put that in perspective, stocks fifteen percent as measured by
the S and P five hundred. And if you want
to look at NASDAK, and I bring Nastak up because
(42:52):
we own twenty percent, I'm sorry, we own as much
Nastak as we do the broad stock market. That your
fifteen year average return for Nasdaq would be twenty percent.
So the SMP fifteen percent, NASDAK twenty percent, bonds two
point one eight percent. So should you be should you
(43:14):
be nervous about stocks over time? Absolutely not. You don't
want to sell out. You really want to hang in there.
And you know, one of our largest holdings, as I said,
is is Nasdak. One of the reasons why our returns
have been so stellar because of NASDAC. And when you
(43:36):
buy Nasdaq, you now almost sixty percent of NASDAK is
made up of technology companies. So in a way, it's
a good proxy for technology. If you look at the
S and P. Five hundred, to put it in perspective,
and you look at the technology waiting in the S
and P. Five hundred, the technology waiting is about thirty
(43:56):
five percent, which is still pretty good. And this is
one reason I were overweight technology, and I think we'll
always be overweight technology, won't we Yet?
Speaker 5 (44:08):
Yes, I would definitely time to agree with that.
Speaker 1 (44:11):
Good. That makes me smile knowing that, you know, being
a young guy and that that that that you believe
in technology as much as an older guy like me
believes in it. Eight two, five, five, nine four nine. Folks,
if you have any questions, give us a call that
(44:31):
and I are here. You can go to our website.
Our website is pretty special, folks. If you've never been
to our website, go to our website and take a
look at it. We you know, every week we we
do different white papers. You can know right on the
homepage scroll down. If you miss a radio show, you
can go and get a radio show. We have our
(44:56):
podcasts up there and videos. Ebinar's looking at the white
papers now, you know we have one on demystifying r
m ds because you know your required minimum distributions can
get crazy with all the new laws. The other white
paper we have is basically finding stability amid weekly storms.
(45:21):
Scott Strohecker, who is now a CFP Certified Financial Planner
professional and a enrolled agent for the I R S.
We have a lot of a lot of just smart
people on our team, Scott being one of them. So
(45:42):
go to our website Bouche dot com, folks, and you'll
really really get a field for what we do. And
so forth. Ed, we're coming up to the you know,
top of the hour. I can't believe on this fourth
of July weekend that we're at where we're at, But
I thank you Ed for coming on today. I know
(46:04):
you're on your way up to Lake George. I hope
you enjoy it. It looks to be a beautiful day out there.
Speaker 5 (46:11):
Yeah, it should be a beautiful day, definitely. Very fortunate
the rain stayed away for the fourth.
Speaker 1 (46:16):
Yeah, yeah, it should have after the rain we had
in June. Folks, you are listening to Let's Talk Money,
brought to you by Bouchet Financial Group, where we help
our clients prioritize their health while we manage their wealth
for life. Thank you for tuning in every Saturday at
ten Sundays at eight. I can't thank you enough. Ed,
thank you for being on the show. And for now, folks,
(46:39):
I hope you enjoy this weekend. We'll talk to you
s
New all time highs. And that's where we're at. The
market's been making a whole lot of new all time highs. Sure,
the S and PS twenty five percent up from the
bottom back in April, and NASTAC is up thirty five
percent from the bottom in April. And that's what happens.
That comes with the territory of investing. And you can't
(00:21):
be scared.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
And if you are, or if you have questions related
to your portfolio, the phone lines are open one eight
hundred talk WGY one eight hundred.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
Eighty two five five nine four nine. I thank you
for taking time out of your day to tune in.
I always thank you because it's so important. I get
so energized doing the show. And as I said, if
you have any questions, not only do you have meat today,
but you have ed. Wilhelm, our portfolio trader, who just
(00:54):
passed the Level one CFA exam. And when I tell you, folks,
it's probably one of the hardest exams there is to
pass ed is well on his way to being a
certified financial analyst. So I have ed with me today.
And if you have questions one eight hundred eight two
five fifty nine forty nine. Hey, Ed, how are you.
Speaker 3 (01:18):
Good, Steve? I'm doing good. I had good fourth and
definitely good timing celebrating my CFA good.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
Well, you know, I arranged fireworks all throughout the country
yesterday for you, Ed, and you know, just to help
you celebrate more. So I hope you enjoyed the fireworks.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
Oh I did? I appreciate that?
Speaker 1 (01:38):
Yeah. Well, you know it's not easy to pull off,
especially when you're coordinating it right across the country. But
I said, listen, Ed passed this level one exam. We
have to be good to him. Let's let's give him
some fireworks so he knows how special it is. And
believe me, yet, it was special for you to ask that.
So the fireworks were all throughout the country just for you. Ed.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
Oh, when you're Stevie B you can make that happen.
Speaker 1 (02:05):
Ah. Well, I'm not sure about that. I have a
horse racing today, Ed, And for the listening audience, if
you're going to be at Saratoga, look for me. And
if by chance you're watching the races. In the tenth
race intellect three to one, it's the Kelso Stakes race.
So hopefully he came in second and the poker stakes
(02:27):
on Belmont week. Hopefully he'll come in with the win today.
Chad Brown trains him, and Flabby and Pratt will be
on the saddle, so we'll see what that is. And folks,
I'm here to talk about money, and I can tell
you horses are just a hobby. They are not an investment.
They are not anything to be taken lightly. That's why
(02:49):
there's so many great partnerships and syndicates where people that
want to get involved in horses can just get in
with as little money as possible. Especially this racehorse doc Huh.
You know, if you're always been wanted to always wanted
to be a horse enthusiast, it's really an easy way
to get into it. Horse race dot Com is one
(03:10):
of the you know, it's really one of the up
and coming syndicates. They got some really great horses. One
of the horse that I used to own, Pooka, who
now has you know, she was the mom to door Knock,
the mom to Maije. She you know, the mom Tabriel
who came in third place in the Derby and the Belmont.
(03:33):
So she's got quite the resume. Race horse dot Com
owns half of her, so that's that's how you want
to get in it. I do not recommend you go
out and buy horses. As I said, it's a hobby.
Some guys buy horses, other guys by restaurants. We all
have fun, but we all get right offs. Eight eight, two, five, five,
nine four nine. Folks, give Ed and I a call.
(03:56):
We would love to talk to you. So, Ed, we
had a pretty good week in markets. As I said,
you know, the S and P's up twenty five percent
from the rose in April. This week it was up
one point seven two percent, and year to date we're
up just about seven percent over seven percent, with dividends
making new all time highs this week. Nasdaq Composite up
(04:18):
one point six to two. QQQ up one point five
zero And you know the Nasdaq composite year to date
is up six point seven percent QQQ, which is, folks,
when you're buying the NASDAK, you're not buying the entire composite.
You're buying the one hundred largest companies in Nasdaq through
the symbol QQQ, and that's up nine percent year today.
(04:41):
And then the winner for the week, Russell two thousand
and you hear you hear me say this often this
excites me more than anything, and that'll add to it
because it means that the market rally is not just
the Magnificent seven, It's not just the big dogs. It
means that we got some cats, small caps taking part. Welso,
(05:03):
two thousands up three point five to two percent this
week and year to eight, we're in positive territory up
point eight percent. I know it's only point eight percent,
but we're still up. We're not down. So what do
you think about those returns? Ed?
Speaker 3 (05:19):
Yeah, no, as you said, certainly a strong week for markets,
but I mean also just a very strong second quarter.
You know, it seems like just yesterday there is a
lot of uncertainty around around tariffs, and you know markets
had reflected that. But yeah, great second quarter, back to
all time highs. It's just why it's so important for
you know, investors to stay calm, don't worry too much,
(05:42):
can't look at your portfolio because over time, you know,
we've just seen it throughout the entire history of markets
that we do come back, and also small caps I agree.
Definitely probably one of the most exciting areas of this
last week. As you mentioned, you know, seeing some breath
come back to markets. It's not just led by those
mag seven. You know, if you think back to twenty
(06:03):
twenty three, that concentration was really the story. And that's
not a sign of a super healthy market. When you're
seeing small caps and those other companies doing well, that
shows that there's some money and confidence for the overall economy.
So that was really great to see.
Speaker 1 (06:19):
Yeah, yeah, I couldn't agree with you more. I say
it a lot on radio that you know, when those
mid camps and small camps are taking part in the rally,
that means the Raunley is really broadening out, and that's
what you want. You want, you know, want the entire
market to take part, not just a few parts of
(06:39):
the market. So it's nice to see that. Russell two thousand, really,
I mean up three and a half percent, and it
was a short week. We only have three and a
half trading days. The market closed at one o'clock on Thursday,
and then obviously for fourth of July it was closed
all day Friday, so it was a short trading week.
So it's nice to see the markets up. And we
(07:02):
had the jobs report ed, I mean we added one
hundred and forty seven thousand jobs. You know, just slightly
above the long run average, cooler than the one hundred and
forty to two hundred and six range that we've seen
in recent months. The unemployment rate dropped the four point
from four point two to four point one, that's the
(07:25):
lowest since February. And how average hourly earnings rose a
little bito point two percent three and a three point
seven percent year over year. So I guess we have
to ask at is this a sustainable slowdown or just
a mild cooling in an otherwise robust market. How much
(07:45):
of the drop in unemployment is a demographic shift versus
true job growth? And what will this mean for the Fed?
Will the Fed, you know, if they see the economy
slowing down a little bit, does that mean maybe we'll
get a rate cut or two or three before the
year is out?
Speaker 3 (08:05):
Yeah, it will certainly be interesting to see. As we
currently sit right now, we've got one cut priced in
for the year. Markets are expecting it to come in September.
Probably hold steady. Now, if we keep seeing strong job
reports like this, you know, it certainly opens the window.
(08:26):
So's it's good to see. And you know, we've known
that overall the labor market isn't a pretty good place.
You know, we've seen some softening, but ultimately we're really
at long term averages for unemployment. There's really not too
much of concern there.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
Yeah, and you know, we know that the Fed is
data driven. They look at just love everything and anything
that comes out on the economy. The minutes are going
to be released this week, so we'll see what they
really said in their meetings. They never really tell us
until weeks after the meetings, and by then so many
(09:01):
other things are factored in, so we don't know what
they're they're really thinking. But I know President Trump would
love to see them cut and cut big they you know,
Trump feels that the rest of the world is cutting
interest rates, why aren't we? But J. Powell and the
Open Market Committee is fixated on doing their job. They
(09:22):
are not politically driven. They are completely independent. No matter
how many threats President Trump makes towards them, they really
will do their thing. But unfortunately they are too data driven.
I mean, I said it a couple of years ago,
when inflation was at nine point two percent ed and
you and I and everybody listening were paying more at
(09:45):
the gas pump, more and the grocery stores more everywhere.
But the FED felt that inflation was transitory. That was
their words, not mine, And even the White House back
then the past administration said the exact same thing. Janet
Yellen came out and said, oh, yeah, this is just temporary. Well,
there was nothing temporary about it. But they had their
(10:06):
noses so far into their textbooks and they never came
up to see the light of day. They never really
got hold of what reality truly is because they don't
live in that world. They don't go out and you know,
be with the people and talk with the people and
roll their sleeves up and try to walk Main Street
(10:27):
and just get a good feel for the economy and
what the American people are feeling. So there was nothing
transitory about it. And you know, we know we had
so many interest rate hikes to cool off inflation, and
now are they late to the party. You know, we
had a cut, but do we need some more cuts?
(10:49):
In hindsight, everything's crystal clear, will see. But as I said,
you know, the FED really needs to take a break
and their nose out of the textbook and kind of
get a sense for reality, not just what history has taught.
Then and hopefully the FED will get this right. I
(11:10):
know they were aggressive about cooling inflation from nine point two.
Here we are. I don't know which indicator you want
to look at, but we're somewhere between two point five
and three percent inflation, and the FED has a target
of two percent. I'm actually going to be with one
of the FED governors in the next week or so,
(11:31):
and I plan on asking him why the FED has
a target of two percent. He's a friend of mine,
and I want to ask him why the FED has
a target rate of two percent when over time inflation
has averaged three point four percent. I don't care. If
you look the last fifty years, the last one hundred years,
inflation was over three percent on average. So why two percent?
(11:53):
Did they get greedy after the financial collapse of two
thousand and seven through March ninth of two thousand and nine.
Did they get used to no inflation and interest rates
being almost at zero and they felt those were the
good times? I don't know if we can go back
to a true two percent inflation rate, but I do
plan on asking my friend and just hopefully he'll share
(12:16):
with me why the FED is fixated on that. Any
thoughts on that Ed.
Speaker 3 (12:24):
I'm sorry I cut out there for a second.
Speaker 1 (12:25):
Unfortunately, don't cut out again. And Ed, come on, we
just got young. You've never been on the radio with me.
I mean, I've been looking forward to this all week long.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
I know it seems we're actually having a couple issues
with the server here. It seems in the office.
Speaker 1 (12:42):
Well that's too bad. We'll have to get that work
done Monday. But anyway, you know, it'll be interesting to
see what the FED says in their minutes. Folks. If
you have any questions for Ed or I, give us
a call. The phone lines are open. We would love
to talk to you. One eight hundred eight two five
(13:02):
five nine four nine. One eight hundred eighty two five
fifty nine forty nine. Any questions whatsoever, Dellieah, I'm going
to take a quick fifteen second break. Don't go anywhere, folks. Hello, folks,
I am back.
Speaker 2 (13:17):
Thank you for tuning in today, Thank you for tuning
in every week.
Speaker 1 (13:22):
I wanted to just take a quick break. And you
know I have Ed Wilhelm on with me today. So
if you have any questions for us, give us a call.
One eight hundred eighty two five five nine four nine. So,
Ed you know, what's your take on the FED and
(13:42):
interest rates.
Speaker 3 (13:45):
Yeah, I think you brought up a good point with
them being late to the party, you know, when we're
seeing that high levels of inflation. I think that's part
of the reason Jerome wants to be so cautious on
the back end, because he knows he was a ready
late to the party, and I think he's a little
bit scared of, you know, tarnishing his reputation because as
(14:05):
we know this, he probably will not be put back
in the seat. If Trump has any sort of weight
at all, there's a zero percent chance. So yes, definitely
hoping to see a rate cut. I think the window
is open for him, certainly. It's they've emphasized over and
over and over again that they need to see consistent
(14:30):
low prints of inflation, and I think over the few
months we've seen that without too much fear. You know,
we also know that a lot of companies are having
a hard time passing on tariffs to consumer, so at
the end of the day, that you know, hurts their
margins a bit, but it doesn't hurt the consumer with inflation.
So I think the windows there and we'll definitely get
(14:50):
one cut and maybe they'll be able to squeeze in
two again. It's just so data dependent, so it's tough
that we could really get a you know, print this month,
and you know, if it did come back, it's the
story changes quite quickly.
Speaker 1 (15:02):
Yeah. Well, you know, as I said, I'm anxious to
see what you know, my friend who's who's one of
the board of governors in the Open Market Committee, what
he says about inflation. I just don't understand why they're
so you know, determine to get inflation down to two percent.
(15:24):
I just don't know how that can happen, especially now
since COVID, you know, minimum wage went from eight nine
dollars to you know, heck, these companies, if they're not
paying fifteen to twenty dollars, they're not even getting people
to Look. I just went to Stewart's this morning to
get my papers, and there's a big sign that they're
looking for overnight help twenty dollars an hour with benefits
(15:48):
twenty dollars an hour. There was a day five years
ago or so those jobs would be seven eight nine
dollars an hour. There was just talk about, you know,
how the if the FED raised the minimum wage to
a level of ten dollars or more. It would hurt
so many small businesses. Well, unfortunately, a lot of businesses
(16:09):
do get hurt with high labor costs. But unfortunately it's
the way of the world. And to be honest that
I think it's only fair that workers get paid a
decent wage so they can provide for their family, put
food on a table, paid rent, and put gas in
their car. It's only right that that that happens. So
(16:31):
just wages alone being so high, that's one of the
big reasons why I feel that the Fed is they
had their targets set too low. But we'll see. And
it's funny. You know, Donald Trump doesn't like J. Powell,
But Donald Trump nominated J. Powell the services sixteenth share
of the Federal Reserve back in twenty and seventeen, and
(16:54):
he was confirmed by the Senate and you know, twenty
January twenty third two in eighteen. So it's crazy. Now
I agree with him. If Trump has this way, I
don't think your own power will be there. We know
Trump is a real school yard bully when it comes
to what he wants, and that you know, there's good
(17:15):
and bad in that. Obviously, the good is that that
he gets things done. I mean, he hasn't wasted time.
God does he get things done. And you know, just
being an office five and a half short months, you
know what he's accomplished would would would take some administration
(17:36):
years to accomplish. So I'm optimistic. On the economy, I
say all the time, teriffs do not scare me. Yet
I feel that at the end of the day, they're
going to be good for this great country of ours.
And you know, it's only fair that other countries pay
their fair share. There is nothing wrong with that. So
(17:57):
you know, Trump came out, I mean was once again
as a schoolyard bully. He tries to scare people. I mean,
We're not going to have one hundred and forty five
tariffs on China. He's already negotiated with China and Vietnam
and other especially Pacific RIM countries. So I'm optimistic that,
(18:19):
you know, the policies in place are going to be
good for this country. And I think our country is
going to be back on sure footing. And I do
not I do not folks say that politically speaking, I
could care less about politics. I could care less who
is in office. All I care less about is who
will lie to me the least. That's who I vote for,
(18:41):
who I think will lie to me the least. And
I'm not a Republican. I'm not a Democrat. I could
care less what the party is. Although it's interesting Elon
Musk and Donald Trump are having a little cap fight,
and now Elon Musk is I think going to try
to start a new party. I mean, is whatever happened
(19:02):
between him and Trump. They're just not holding hands anymore
walking in tomorrow Lago. They're you know, they're they're in
an all out cat fight. But you know, there's nothing
wrong with third party either. And you know, forget the
Democrats and forget the Republicans and that that hard line
(19:23):
that they take. You know, Let's do what's right for
the country. Let's do what's right for the people of
this country, especially the people that are working hard.
Speaker 3 (19:34):
Yeah, speaking about tariffs, it's interesting coming up on the ninthier,
we're going to have the ninety day pause, so you know,
that could certainly serve as a catalyst, you know, potentially
either direction for markets. But that should be exciting. If
he goes to extend them, should definitely see a nice boost. Yeah,
I was looking at some data earlier this week too,
(19:56):
and the revenue that those tariffs have already started generating
is going to be forecast to be pretty strong. So
that was that was exciting to see. It ended up
being a pretty strong boost to GDP forecasts. So that
was the big area. You know, we saw them come
way down and there were some recession fears, and as
we started to get more data and you know, started
(20:16):
looking pretty good.
Speaker 1 (20:18):
Yeah. No, I'm as I said, I'm optimistic. And listen,
whenever the market goes down, I try to help educate
and coach the listening audience that that's all right, it's
all right when the market goes down. And what do
we say, ed We say that, you know, market corrections
and bear markets are opportunities. We don't get scared. We
(20:40):
actually we kind of get giddy about it because it
allows us to maybe rebounce the portfolio, get into areas
that were more expensive. And investors should never never get
worried about market corrections. I give this statistic often over
the last forty four years, the average swing in the
market peaked the high to low has been about fourteen percent.
(21:03):
Fourteen percent swings in the market comes with the territory.
And at the low point in April, the S and
P was off about just about twenty percent, almost touching
bear market. NASDAK was off more than twenty five percent.
And here we are. You know, NASDAK has recovered thirty
five percent or the SMP has recovered twenty five percent
(21:28):
from their lows. So you know, there's more reason to
be optimistic about being a long term investor with stocks
as an asset class in your portfolio than not.
Speaker 3 (21:38):
Yes, exactly. I mean, I'll tell you as trader, Steve
definitely a lot more excited when we're in a little
bit of a downturn. Gives me a little bit more
work to do, and as you said, it really is
an opportunity. You know, markets go up a lot more
than they go down. We've seen that throughout history and
so it's a lot more exciting for me in my role.
(21:59):
Also awesome statistic I've seen that if you invested every
single time CNBC came out with their markets and turmoil.
Speaker 1 (22:08):
You know what, ed I want you to hold that thought.
You're listening to Let's Talk Money, brought to you by
Bouchet and Andrew Group, where we help our clients prioritize
their health while we manage their wealth for life. Give
us a call, folks. One eight eight two, five, five
nine four nine, see you on the other side of
the news. We're really get into this music. Hello, folks.
(22:49):
Thank you for hanging in through the news, thank you
for listening to this great music that Julia is playing
for us, and thank you for tuning in. I can't
thank you enough. Every week you make this show a
joy to do. I get energics and excited doing it
thirty years now every weekend, and sometimes my colleagues do
(23:11):
come in and help out. But for the most part,
you know, I've been doing the show for a long, long,
long long time. Today I got one of my esteem
colleagues at Wilhelm, our portfolio trader, on his way to
becoming a CFA, which is one of the hardest credentials
to get just past this level one exam. So if
(23:32):
you have any questions for Ed or I, I can
assure you we can get it answered with the best
of our ability. One eight hundred eight two, five, five
nine four nine one eight hundred eighty two five fifty
nine forty nine. So Ed, I know you started just
before the news break talking about CNBC, and you know,
(23:53):
I sometimes call CNBC financial plorn. Don't take offense to that, folks,
but you know, listen, there's a lot of entertainers on CNBC.
You should not be taking their investment advice at all whatsoever.
You cannot listen to some of the the jokesters on CNBC.
(24:14):
So ahead, go ahead, finish, start your story and finish
your story.
Speaker 3 (24:21):
Yeah, great, thanks Steve. I was just mentioning that if
you had invested in the S and P five hundred
every time CNBC had their Markets and Turmoil special, your
average return after one year would have been forty percent
and you would have had one hundred percent success rate.
So it just goes to show that the negativity is
what sells. And you know, they like to panic people,
(24:42):
that's what gets people tuned in and watching. But it's
really just important for investors to stay diligence, stay calm,
and don't panic.
Speaker 1 (24:52):
Yeah, now that's a great statistic, you know, folks, As
Ed and I said in the first half of the show, listen,
when there's volatility, get excited like we do about it.
You know, look at that volatility is an opportunity, it's
not a liability to you. It's not holding you back. Listen,
(25:14):
you only lose money if you get scared and you
sell out of your investments. Then absolutely you lost and
you can't go back and recover. I tell the story
ed every once in a while on radio. A couple
of years ago, when the market was really down after
inflation hit nine point two percent, we had that client
that called us and he said, Steve, I just can't
(25:36):
take it anymore. I don't want to lose any more money.
I'd like to have you sell out of the market,
and then when the market goes back up, let's get
back in. And I kind of just paused, and I
listened and took it all in and I said to him,
are you kidding me? He says, what do you mean, Steve?
(25:57):
I said, I just want you to think about what
you asked me to do. You want me to sell
out now, why the market is probably at the bottom,
and then wait till the market goes back makes a
new all time high, and then you want to get
back in. Does that even sound logical to you? And
he thought about it. Oh, I guess not, Steve. I
guess that's why I hired you in the first place.
(26:20):
So you know, we we really work hard to when
when when a client say listen, No matter how much
we help educate and teach and hold our clients' hands,
you know, clients are human just like every other investor,
and when they see paper losses, they get they get scared,
(26:40):
and you can't blame them. They have a heart. And
you know, the thing that we take out of the
equation mostly folks, is we take that emotion out of
the decision making process. So we have a heart too,
But we're getting paid to think rationally with information, thinking
with our head, not with our heart. So it's only
natural for investors that think with their heart and get
(27:02):
scared and think that the world's coming to an end,
and it's not coming to an end. The world still
continues to go on. And I guess if the world
came to an end, would it matter. Probably not. What
you can't do is you can't panic. You can't have
knee jerk reactions and sell out of your portfolio when
the markets are down. Did I lose you in?
Speaker 3 (27:26):
So sorry? I'm here, yep, I'm here. Can you guys
hear me?
Speaker 1 (27:30):
Yeah? Yeah, I misschip. You were going for a couple
of seconds.
Speaker 3 (27:35):
Oh, I was just captivated by your speech, but no,
I think nail on the head definitely. That's where we
add probably the most value to our clients. It's truly,
you know, kind of acting as that sort of fitness coach,
you know, and keeping them making logical decisions.
Speaker 1 (27:50):
Yeah, and you know, I tell the listening audience a
lot at that first and foremost. You know, it's funny
you use the analogy fitness coach, because it's your health
first and foremost. When you have your health, you have everything, folks.
And if you have your loved one, you're pretty dawn lucky.
And if financially you can make things happen and do things,
(28:13):
don't mess around because you never know when your health
or this situation with your loved one may change. And
taking care of yourself is good and that's a great
way of putting it at That's what we do for
our clients financially speaking, is take care of them. We
like to say where our client's personal chief financial officer.
We really when a client engages our service, we truly
(28:37):
make sure that we're managing their wealth, we're managing their life.
We help them make we help them make different decisions
that maybe they wouldn't make on their own, and it's just,
you know, it's the right thing to do, folks. If
you have any questions, I'm going to take a quick
fifteen second break if you have any questions. One eight
(28:59):
hundred eight two five five nine four nine one eight
hundred eighty two five fifty nine forty nine. Hello, folks,
thank you for letting me take that quick break. I'm
sitting here with Ed Wilhelm, one of my colleagues, one
of my esteemed colleagues, and we would love to talk
to you with any questions you may have. One eight
(29:21):
hundred eight two five five nine four nine one eight
hundred eighty two five fifty nine forty nine. So you know,
we talk a lot about the Fed. FED officials. I
guess they still expect fifty BIPs half a percent great
cup this year. But you know the reason data you
(29:42):
know that may have them changing their mind, especially for July.
Mixed labor signals give the FED room to remain cautious.
We'll see what happens. We got wages rising modestly, job
gains still holding steady. Will the Fed pause or will
they cut Ed said in the first half of the
(30:03):
show that there's a chance that they are, you know,
basically going to cut. You know, we'll see what happens ed.
Ed has been on with me, but he's having technological difficulties,
so we're going to say goodbye to Ed. He's on
his way to Lake George anyway, you know, to be
young and have the fun that Ed has, Boy, it
(30:28):
makes me whistle. Dixie is such You know what's nice
about the colleagues I work with. Not only are they
amazing colleagues, true professionals, all twenty of them. They are
true professionals, but I enjoy doing things with them outside
of work, and I spend a lot of time. Try
to spend as much time with my colleagues as I can. So, Ed,
(30:51):
thank you for being on the show today. Go up
to Saratoga. Enjoy yourself. You know you deserve it. Ed
is a recent graduate three years ago from Sienna. He
was the captain of the rugby team, and he's from
the Midwest, but he went to school at Siena and he's,
(31:13):
you know, been having such a great time. His parents
actually just moved from the Midwest to the local capital
region area and his sister's here is well, so Ed
really has brought the family to this great area of ours.
I always say, we don't get hit with as many
problems from mother Nature as other parts of the country.
(31:35):
It's now pretty easy to get anywhere when you think
about it, within two and a half three hours, you
could be in New York, Boston, Montreal. You can get
some decent flights out of Aubany International Airport. My daughter
brought me to the airport a couple of weeks ago.
I said, Lauren, do you know why they call it
the Aubany International Airport. She said why, Dad, I said,
(31:55):
because there used to be one flight that went to
Toronto and that made it the Aubany International Airport. Eight eight, two, five, five,
nine four nine. Let's go to the phone lines where
we had Lisa calling in from New York. I guess
in New York City. Hello, Lisa, Hi, thank you for
(32:17):
taking my call.
Speaker 4 (32:18):
I'm never called before, and I don't know if I
have enough next day to invest to even be talking
to you guys.
Speaker 1 (32:28):
Well, you know what, Lisa, that's what's nice about doing
this show every week, because this is, believe it or not,
a way for me to get back to the community.
I believe in it so so much. I mean, this
past week I saw a family, three young children and
their mother asking money for food. The kids were tearing up,
and I truly believe them. I went it back into
(32:50):
my pocket three times. I couldn't give them enough money.
And see, I mean the kids were just smiling from
ear to ear. And this is also doing radio is
my way of giving back to the community in other ways,
because I know there's a lot of listeners, maybe like you, Lisa,
that may not have enough money to meet our minimum,
but they need to get directed in the right direction,
(33:14):
pointed in the right direction. And that's why I'm here
to do the show. So tell me all about you, Lisa,
and then I'll tell you what you should do.
Speaker 4 (33:23):
Well. Most importantly, I do have somewhat of a nest egg.
I'm almost sixty five now, and I wanted to get
information about putting something into for my grandson. Is that
something that you kind advise me on?
Speaker 1 (33:40):
Yeah? Absolutely so. I mean there's different ways of doing
and how old your grandsony.
Speaker 4 (33:48):
Five years old, and I am a healthis faient. Make
sure whatever I do leave for him that his parents
aren't making very good choices. Of financial I want to
make sure.
Speaker 1 (34:04):
Yeah. So it's a great question, Lisa. And one of
the ways that we tell parents and grandparents to put
money away from minors, don't open up an account with
them on it. Basically open up a college savings plan,
especially with you saying, Lisa, how their parents just aren't
maybe making the right decisions. And you know, we'll take
(34:27):
that for what it is, so all the more reason,
when your grandson meets college age, you can put money.
You can put as little as twenty five dollars a
month away. And I always propose the New York College
Saves plan and why saves dot org is the website
and why saves dot org. Go there and you can
(34:49):
put money away for your grandson, open up an account.
You can be the beneficiary. Basically opening up the account.
I should say, your grandson will be the beneficiary. And
the beauty is, you know, if your grandson decides not
to go to college and does something else, you can
still get at that money. He can still get at
(35:10):
that money. There may be taxes old, but if your
grandson does go to college, and this may be an
incentive for him knowing that grandma really was saving for him.
To go to college. And even if his parents don't
coach him into going to college, maybe this will be
an incentive for him knowing that grandma put money away
in a college savings program and if it's used for
(35:32):
college expenses, it's all tax free. The growth of that
money and choose the aggressive model. So use the aggressive
model because at five years old, your grandson has years
for that money to grow. And I always like to say, folks,
when you have college savings plan and the beneficiary gets
(35:56):
to be a senior in high school, start making that
more conservative because what you don't want to happen. Let's
make believe you save one hundred thousand dollars and there's
a twenty percent market question and you need that money
now all of a sudden, one hundred thousands down to
eighty thousand. So when when, when that child is like
a senior in high school, then let you know, make
(36:21):
it more conservative so you don't have to worry about
the market dry rations and losing money anyway, Lisa, hopefully
that helps one eight hundred eight two, five five nine
four nine, one eight hundred eighty two five fifty nine
forty nine. Any questions that you have folks, give me,
give me a call. You know. In the first half
(36:44):
of the show, Ed talked a little bit about tariff
and tariff tensions and you know, waiting now. You know,
Medicaid cuts from the Senate budget may affect hiring and
healthcare workforce. The Trump administration is pushing for faster rate cuts,
not getting along with the Fed. And you know, basically, well,
(37:07):
we'll see what happens. As I said, when when things
happen that will happen. Will the FED pause at their
next meeting, will they cut who knows. I don't think
they'll be raising interest rates. There's no reason to raise
interest rates. But if they feel that the economy is
still doing well on its own, they may not need
(37:30):
to help it. And when they cut interest rates, folks,
that means they're trying to stimulate the economy, kind of
give a little catalyst for the economy, you know, spark
a flame, the spark of flame, you know, under you know,
the the economy, get the economy moving in the right direction.
(37:54):
Eight two, five, five, nine, four nine. So I'm told
that Ed is back on the line. Is that back
on the line.
Speaker 5 (38:04):
I am back and it feels good to be back.
Twenty of days where the technology is just not my friend.
Speaker 1 (38:10):
Yeah. Well, you know, we get so used to technology,
which is why we're overweight technology in our portfolios. Ed.
I mean, I'd like to say, in the office, as
long as I'm around, as long as I'm mentally competent,
as long as as I'm able to be in that office,
I think will always be overweight technology because technology has
(38:33):
just overcome our lives in so many ways. There's a
statistic one million robots Amazon employees while employees deploys one
million robots in its warehouse and soon that's there's going
(38:54):
to be more robots ED than there will be humans
in Amazon. I mean, hard to fathom a million robots
getting our orders and making it work. And that's you know,
that's that that's the future technology. Technology, technology.
Speaker 5 (39:14):
Yes, I mean you want your portfolio to grow, you
do want to grow? Tell them as your portfolio, and
you know, technology is definitely the best way to access that.
I don't I don't see, you know, a very bullish
market where technology isn't leading the pack.
Speaker 1 (39:28):
Yeah, in this AI, artificial intelligence is huge. Every once
in a while that I share with the listening audience
that if they haven't played with it. They really need
to play with it because it's so powerful, and you know,
just go and play with the folks. When when you
see how powerful it is, you'll know why why. I
(39:50):
really think artificial intelligence is here for a long time
and it's going to just artificial intelligence alone. There's another
statistic in this week's Parents how a lot of employers
just aren't looking to gear up hiring new employees because
artificial intelligence, they feel will will take over about fifty
(40:12):
percent of the white collar workforce. And when you think
about that, you just give it some thought. It's like,
what will the future look like? Now, we also knew
you may be too young for this said, but when
AOL came out, we thought that was the latest greatest
technological move and we thought that was going to be
forever and it was good. It kind of wetted our appetite,
(40:36):
but that was just the beginning. I mean, now we
got AI artificial intelligence, and you know, you know, people
are going to the movies less they're streaming their favorite
shows or movies on you know, whether it be Apple
or Netflix or whatever your favorite platform is. But there's
a lot a lot going on. So with our portfolios.
(41:00):
You know, I know you and Ryan who's our chief
investment officer, and Polo and Casey and Dave have been
doing a great job with our portfolios. I know we've
been buying individual bonds. These interest rates are still Listen,
the tenure treasure yield is still right now at about
(41:21):
four point three percent, and you know, sure it's not
the five percent we saw not too long ago, but
four point three is a whole lot better than the
one and a half percent we saw just a few
years ago. Right now, you can get a twenty year
note for almost four point nine percent, and the one
(41:44):
year's yielding just four percent. So those aren't bad yields.
And when it comes to bonce, folks, a lot of
people add bonds to their portfolio because they want to
soften the volatility. It really doesn't reduce the risk because
there's risk in bond as well as in stocks. You know,
if you look at the bond market over the last
ten years, there were three two years where bonds actually
(42:10):
lost money. Guess what. When you look at the SMP
over the last ten years, guess what, there were two
years where investors lost money. So there you have it, folks.
You don't always make money in bonds either. And if
you look at your fifteen year average return in bonds,
if looking at the the I Shares Core US Aggregate
(42:31):
Bond ETF, it's like the SMP index for stocks. It
represents a lot of bonds. Your average fifteen year return
year in, year out two point eight percent. Now, to
put that in perspective, stocks fifteen percent as measured by
the S and P five hundred. And if you want
to look at NASDAK, and I bring Nastak up because
(42:52):
we own twenty percent, I'm sorry, we own as much
Nastak as we do the broad stock market. That your
fifteen year average return for Nasdaq would be twenty percent.
So the SMP fifteen percent, NASDAK twenty percent, bonds two
point one eight percent. So should you be should you
(43:14):
be nervous about stocks over time? Absolutely not. You don't
want to sell out. You really want to hang in there.
And you know, one of our largest holdings, as I said,
is is Nasdak. One of the reasons why our returns
have been so stellar because of NASDAC. And when you
(43:36):
buy Nasdaq, you now almost sixty percent of NASDAK is
made up of technology companies. So in a way, it's
a good proxy for technology. If you look at the
S and P. Five hundred, to put it in perspective,
and you look at the technology waiting in the S
and P. Five hundred, the technology waiting is about thirty
(43:56):
five percent, which is still pretty good. And this is
one reason I were overweight technology, and I think we'll
always be overweight technology, won't we Yet?
Speaker 5 (44:08):
Yes, I would definitely time to agree with that.
Speaker 1 (44:11):
Good. That makes me smile knowing that, you know, being
a young guy and that that that that you believe
in technology as much as an older guy like me
believes in it. Eight two, five, five, nine four nine. Folks,
if you have any questions, give us a call that
(44:31):
and I are here. You can go to our website.
Our website is pretty special, folks. If you've never been
to our website, go to our website and take a
look at it. We you know, every week we we
do different white papers. You can know right on the
homepage scroll down. If you miss a radio show, you
can go and get a radio show. We have our
(44:56):
podcasts up there and videos. Ebinar's looking at the white
papers now, you know we have one on demystifying r
m ds because you know your required minimum distributions can
get crazy with all the new laws. The other white
paper we have is basically finding stability amid weekly storms.
(45:21):
Scott Strohecker, who is now a CFP Certified Financial Planner
professional and a enrolled agent for the I R S.
We have a lot of a lot of just smart
people on our team, Scott being one of them. So
(45:42):
go to our website Bouche dot com, folks, and you'll
really really get a field for what we do. And
so forth. Ed, we're coming up to the you know,
top of the hour. I can't believe on this fourth
of July weekend that we're at where we're at, But
I thank you Ed for coming on today. I know
(46:04):
you're on your way up to Lake George. I hope
you enjoy it. It looks to be a beautiful day out there.
Speaker 5 (46:11):
Yeah, it should be a beautiful day, definitely. Very fortunate
the rain stayed away for the fourth.
Speaker 1 (46:16):
Yeah, yeah, it should have after the rain we had
in June. Folks, you are listening to Let's Talk Money,
brought to you by Bouchet Financial Group, where we help
our clients prioritize their health while we manage their wealth
for life. Thank you for tuning in every Saturday at
ten Sundays at eight. I can't thank you enough. Ed,
thank you for being on the show. And for now, folks,
(46:39):
I hope you enjoy this weekend. We'll talk to you
s
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