Let's Talk Money

July 26th, 2025. 

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Giving my honest opinion. I promised that you may not
like my honest opinion, but professionally speaking, I'll give you
how I feel and hopefully get your pointed in the
right direction. As I say, often you get one opportunity
one to retire. What you don't want to do is
blow it. You don't want to reach retirement age, whatever
age that is, and not be able to retire, have

(00:21):
to work. Hope there's a job for you. Better yet,
hope that you have your health where you can work.
So any questions one eight hundred eighty two, five, five, nine,
four nine. So telling you folks, I mean, do you
remember me telling you probably about ten thousand times over

(00:42):
the last thirty years that the stock market goes down?
I guarantee it, and guess what stock market has always
come back and going on to make new all time highs.
We hit another all time high this week, no surprise to.

Speaker 2 (00:58):
The listening audience.

Speaker 1 (00:59):
If you listen to me more than once, you know
that's how I think. That's why I'm very optimistic, bullish
on stocks at all times. All times. There's nothing like
the stock market, and you're gonna have some ups and downs,
but phones you don't sell. You don't lose. If you sell,

(01:20):
you lose. So what you want to do is make
sure you're a good investor, a long term investor. You
have a well diversified portfolio top full of good investments.
And that's really the key, folks, that is the key.
So you know, just a few months ago some of
you were scared thinking the world was coming to an end.

(01:41):
Not all. The world did not come to an end. Heck,
look at the weather we're having. We're far from the
world coming to an end. And enjoy it. As I said,
next week is I mean, I can't believe next Friday
is August first. Where did the year go? Eight hundred
eighty two five nine? So what happened this would We

(02:04):
had Japan's Prime Minister Yeshiba clung to power despite his
party losing its supper House majority. You had the US
inbound container shipping fell for the second straight month in June,
down about eight percent. You had Presgory, Secretary of Scott Descent,
called for an investigation into the Empire Federal Reserve. Well

(02:27):
that's new. I mean, I've never heard that stocks were
actually up, the smp NASDAK hitting new highs, the White
House announced the Japanese trade deal of fifteen percent tariffs
and five hundred and fifty billion dollars in US investment.
Japanese and European auto stocks rallied for the week. You know,

(02:51):
the S and P after five days of record highs
up one point five percent for the week. Nastak game
just over one percent.

Speaker 2 (03:00):
Of the week.

Speaker 1 (03:00):
Not bad, right, I mean, what's one of that? The
best performing sector this week was healthcare up about three
and a half percent, and y're to date the S
and P is up almost nine percent, over nine percent
with dividends, and now as that composite up nine point three.
QQQ one of my favorites, up almost eleven percent. Even

(03:22):
the Rust of two thousand is in the black up
one point four percent. Not bad. Gold came, you know,
off the high, the high over the last year. It's
thirty four to thirty nine announce we closed on Friday
thirty three, thirty four announce and oil sixty five dollars
of barrel and those you know, that's really that that

(03:45):
those are the major indexes. So I continue to be optimistic.
There's no reason not to be optimistic. You know, you
had some news with companies This week, France launched a
probe into Elon Musk's expert data Tamper, and Soft warned
of cyber italics against its server. It basically docu management

(04:06):
software called SharePoint, blaming Chinese hankers. You had Stilantis warned
of a two point seven billion dollars first half loss
citing the US Terra policy. You had General Motors earnings
fell thirty two percent. The quarter block joined the SMP,
replacing HES which was acquired by Chevron. You had Coca

(04:30):
Cola and Alphabet beat on earnings, Tesla did not. Soft
Bank and open Ai scaled back near term plans for
their strategic project. That's really the news in this coming week.
This coming week, we got second quarter earning season up
to a good start, folks, more than eighty percent of
companies beating earnings per share estimates, and we had so

(04:54):
far about one third of the S and P five
hundred companies reported so far for this core this week
will be the busiest this coming week on the calendar,
with roughly almost one hundred and fifty SMT companies recording earnings,
including for the Magnificent seven. Then you had Prop and Gamble,
United Health, Visa, especially United Health. If you're wondering why

(05:18):
your healthcare your to date returns are down, it's because
of United Health. United Health is such a big part
of most of those healthcare ETFs or mutual funds, whatever
you're investing in. So you know, we got those earnings
and then we got Meta Microsoft on Wednesday, by Amazon,

(05:38):
Apple and MasterCard on Thursday. E Strevron and Exxon close
out the week on Friday. Those are the biggie. That's
what you have going on. And our friend Jerry Powell,
did you see President Trump gave them a little visit
with their hard hats on, looking at the new Federal
Reserve headquarters. You can't make this up, folks. But they're

(06:01):
going to have their two day meeting the Federal Open
Market Committee Tuesday and Wednesday. And on Wednesday, obviously they'll
announce him top to two fifteen two thirty on Wednesday,
Jay Powell will come out and he won't say much
right now. The estimate on the street is that they'll
leave the Fed funds rate unchanged. We know President Trump

(06:25):
would love to have them cut and cut big. I'm
not so sure we're going to get that cut. But
if it's up to the president. If he has any power,
he would love to see it cut. But remember, the
Federal Reserve could care less who is in that seat
in Washington. They operate on their own and Jay Powell

(06:46):
will not be swayed by President Trump or any politician.
And that's the way it should be, folks. The Federal
Open Market Committee should be independent. And then on Friday
in August, first we got the Bureau of Label Labor Statistics,
we got the jobs report for July. Right now, economists
foretest one hundred and six milesand increase in non farm payrolls.

(07:10):
We had about one hundred and forty seven thousand gain
in June. Right now, the unemployment rate is four point one.
Economists expected to go to four point two. We'll see
on Friday. We never know anybody who says they know,
they don't, So we'll see on Friday what happens. One
eight hundred eight two, five five nine four nine one

(07:32):
eight hundred eighty two five fifty nine forty nine. If
you have any questions, give me a call. I would
love love to talk to you. In this week's parents
and yes, I picked up my parents in my Wall
Street Journal at Stuarts. That's where I go every Saturday
to load up on the papers. I love. I love
the workers at Stuart's, you know, Jerry Dake And instead

(07:54):
they did a brilliant thing by having all of their
employees be part of basically the sopware in some way.
They're really they are part owners with the Day family,
and that's a beautiful thing. They take pride. It's a
good place to work. I noticed today they're offering anybody

(08:16):
who's looking for overnight shift twenty dollars an hour. That's
not bad, folks. Just five years ago those jobs were eight,
nine and ten dollars an hour. Twenty dollars an hour.
You can work at Stewarts, but that's where I get
my papers. And it was nice to read in today's
Barns that five percent decrease in new credit card openings

(08:40):
from you for the major lenders in the second quarter.
That's the first decline in more than a year. And
that's good. You know, when you see people opening up
credit card cards and borrowing on that, are spending on that,
that's not good the consumer. Most consumers shouldn't do that.
That's why I always said the best way to buy

(09:02):
Christmas presents is to open up a Christmas club when
it was the last time you heard of the Christmas club. Right,
every week you put some money in and whatever you
have at Christmas time, just borrow, you know, my borrow,
but spend that cash. Don't go out and charge things
on credit cards, because then you enter the new year
being in debt. Even more so if you don't have

(09:23):
the cash, don't buy gifts. Sit down, have the family
get together and say, hey, listen, things are tight. Why
don't we, you know, pick one name out of a
hat we just buy from one person. Or better yet,
just cook a nice dinner, have your family get together
of friends and have it be special in all way
eight hundred eighty two five five nine four nine, Give

(09:46):
me a call, let me talk to you. So, I said,
you know Tesla, Tesla. You know it's an interesting, interesting company, right.
Is it really a car company trading at you know,
the levels that it's trading at, or is it more
than a car company? I keep saying, you know, is
it a battery company? Is it an AI company, a

(10:06):
spaceship company? What is Tesla? But basically they had their
second quarter earnings came out on Wednesday and went down
a little bit. You know, right now we're looking at
about one hundred and two trillion dollar valuation came down
about you know, five from the beginning of the week.

(10:28):
And you know, listen how many companies are worth over
a trillion dollars. You had Navidio, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet
which is Google, Metal which is Facebook, Broadcom, and Berkshire Halfway.
Berkshire Halfway is actually down ten percent from when it
traded at It's an annual meeting back in May, and you

(10:51):
know what, folks, it's actually I'm going to talk to
Ryan about Berkshire Hathaway because one Warren Buckett's going to retire.
That that's why it's down. The buffet premium is kind
of coming off that stock. But it's a great stock.
It's I've said forever I've been in business thirty five years,

(11:12):
and for thirty five years I've said Berkshire Halfaway is
like a neutral punt. So you can buy the B
shares just under five one hundred dollars, and you can
buy for eight hundred or seven hundred and sixty thousand.
You can buy the A shares. But let's go back
to Tessa so Tesla has long been part of that

(11:34):
brillion dollar you know, stock value that over trillion dollars
right now trades one hundred and eighty two times estimated
earnings versus an average of about thirty for the other
eight car companies. I'm sorry, thirty for the other eight
companies that are our worth over trillion dollars. In the video, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon,

(11:58):
Alpha had a broad common Berkshire Hathaway. They are the
ones that are worth over trillion dollars. And there's twelve
zeros in a trillion. By the way, folks, you don't
have to count it, I'll count it for you. So
you know, all eight of those companies on average about
thirty times. And here we have Tesla trading at one
hundred and eighty two times. Sounds a little rich. Out

(12:22):
of the eight broadcime as the highest that forty two
times other than Tesla, and on the low end Alphabet
nineteen times. Maybe Alphabet maybe a buye at only nineteen
times earning. And believe it or not, smaller investors hold
more than forty percent of Tesla. There's the average for

(12:43):
the rest of those eight companies is twenty four percent.
So there's a lot of small investors that buy Tesla,
and that's interesting. You know, for a while Tesla was
riding high, and higher retail holdings can introduce more volatility
into the stocks than institutions, because institutions are going to

(13:05):
be looking at that's the whether they want to own it,
why they want to own it, Whereas obviously we know
it's only you know, human nature. We're all human, right,
and if there's a little bit of volativity, the small
investors going to make changes that they probably shouldn't make.
So Tesla right now is about two and a half

(13:27):
times more volatile than those other eight companies that are
trading over a trillion dollars. And you know it doesn't
you know, if it is a car company, doesn't merit
a trillion dollar value. I don't think so. Basically, it's
all about artificial intelligences. If you haven't played with artificial intelligence, folks,

(13:49):
do yourself a favor. Play with it. There's a lot
of maps out there that are free, and I can't
get over just how powerful artificial intelligence is. And you
owe it to yourself to to basically try it, play
with it. See what you think. Eighty two five nine

(14:12):
four nine I'm gonna wet my whistle the leah, can
you just give me a fifteen second break? We folks,
thank you for letting me take that fifteen second break.
It wasn't long, wasn't I just wanted to take a
little sip of water. And I appreciate you hanging in there.
A beautiful day out there, folks. You know, people laugh

(14:33):
because there's a bench in front of the hotel of
Belfi that I sit at every morning every morning. This morning,
I was there at about seven fifteen, and you know,
I read my papers there. I kind of answer my emails.
They call it my remote office. If you're if you're
ever looking for me any any morning, just go by

(14:55):
the bench at the hotel at belt By and I
will be out front. And now I just love it there.
There's something peaceful in the morning, just being there. So
if you're ever looking for me, you know it's not
hard to find me. That's where I am every three
morning one eight hundred eighty two, five five nine four nine,
one eight hundred eighty two, five fifty nine forty nine.

(15:19):
So you know, S and P say, it's so often
I saw them like a broken record that focks go up,
stocks go down. I guarantee you stocks go down. If
you're an investor, I guarantee you you will experience the
stock market going down. You will experience getting a monthly
statement where you may be down in value. Don't, don't

(15:41):
spread over it. Don't don't get all nervous and you know,
jittery about it. It comes with the territory of investing.
Just take it and strive, folks. Just take it in stride.
You don't want to get you know, all all bent
out of shore because the stock market has some volatility.

(16:03):
Everything has volatility. I don't care if you're in bonds.
I don't care if you're in real estate, commodities like gold, oil,
I don't care what you're in, folks. There's volatility in
every asset class. Why do stocks take it on the chin?
Why do people get so freaked out about stocks? You know,
if you own your own homes, you had the real

(16:24):
estate agent come every month and value it. No why
because you plan on living there for a long time.
What do you care what the value of it is
this month or next month. You don't care because you're
not planning on selling it. And that's how you have
to look at investing if you don't, you know, need
your money in the next year or two, and if

(16:45):
you do, you probably shouldn't be invested. And with the
stock market at all time highs, it's really a good
time to actually take money out. If you need money
over the next twelve to twenty four months, it's a
good time to take that money out and put it
on the side. Now. I can't tell you if twelve
to twenty four months from now the stock market will
be up or down, But I'm saying, be smart, be prudent,

(17:09):
get that money out of there. If you have kids
going to college in the next year or two and
you're invested in the aggressive mode of your college savings
five to twenty nine plans, get that money out of there.
Put it in that conservative spot. If you have one
hundred thousand dollars saved up and you know little Johnny
or Joni are going to college and that one hundred

(17:32):
thousand is worth eighty because of the stock market correction,
well that's a lot of money. So you don't want
to get greedy. You want to take that money out
on right now while the markets are at all time highs.
We advanced that kidding all time highs the SMP five
days in a row. What a winning streak I'm making
all time highs, folks. It doesn't get any better than that.

(17:56):
What's wrong with an all time high? You know? Yet? Yeah? Yeah,
you have NASDAC and the S and P closing at
all time highs yesterday.

Speaker 2 (18:04):
That's a beautiful thing.

Speaker 1 (18:06):
You wonder why I like stocks like I do? And
I do like stocks. I actually like stocks a lot,
a real lot. There's nothing wrong with going stocks in
your portfolio, nothing at all. I You know, we manage
just about one point five billion dollars and we don't
have one client who doesn't have stocks in their portfolio.

(18:27):
We don't have one client that's invested just in bonds.
Our clients take our advice, and we don't get paid
anymore or less to have stocks in the portfolio or
bonds or CDs. What we do is advise our clients.
We're to do, Sherry, So what's best for our clients
is all that matters. And when we advise our clients,

(18:49):
that's really all we care about. I always say to
every client I see, are we meeting your expectations? That's
all I care about. My team and I to make
sure we meet our clients' expectations. And speaking of my team,
we had a beautiful on Monday night. I invited all
my colleagues, twenty of them and their spouses, loved ones,

(19:14):
their children. Who Village Pizzerian Restaurant. If you've never heard
of it, folks, it's a hidden secret. And I'm telling you,
it's twelve miles west from downtown Saratoga on Route twenty
nine headed towards Amsterdam. Twelve miles. A beautiful ride, absolutely

(19:36):
beautiful out in the country, and when you hit downtown
Middle Grove, you won't miss it. There's not much to
downtown Middle Grove. You got the Village Pizzerian Restaurant and
Dandy Foster beautiful, beautiful soul, he hairs, an amazing pizza
and an amazing restaurant. And she's also got a wine
spectator on list award every year you want to, I

(20:00):
believe that she has a wine list to choke a horse.
I mean, it's just it's a real hidden jewel. So
we took over the outdoor patio and there were fifty
of us there. The kids were playing. I had a
magician come and they kept not only the little one's busy,
but the adult's busy. It's amazing how a magician can

(20:23):
really truly you know, it just entertain you. And it
was just it was nice to have to have all
my colleagues there. I'm telling you it's I love my colleagues.
They are the reason we're successful. I give them full
credit for us being successful. Everybody, everybody, my operations team,

(20:48):
my service team, my advisory team, my leadership team. I
give them all credit for why we're as successful as
we are. Without them, we want to be successful. Eight
two five, five nine four nine. One eight hundred eighty
two five fifty nine forty nine. If you have any questions,

(21:08):
give me a call. I would love to talk to you.
We're going to take a quick break for the news
and another thirty forty seconds or so, and I'm going
to stay with you through the news. So don't think
that I'm going anywhere. I'm not going anywhere. I'm gonna
be with you on the other end of that news break.
And I appreciate you tuning in. I can't thank you

(21:28):
enough for tuning in. And if you have any questions
one eight hundred eighty two five five nine, four nine
one eight hundred eighty two five fifty nine forty nine.
For now, you are listening to Let's Talk Money, brought
to you by Bouchet Financial Group, where we help our
clients prioritize their health while we manage their wealth for life.

(21:49):
I love love doing the show with you. And when
I tell you give me a call, let me help you.
Give me a call, let me help you, Let me
let me get you pointed in the right direction somehow,
some way. I would love, love, love to talk to you.
One eight hundred eighty two five nine four nine. Any

(22:11):
questions whatsoever, folks, the bone mines are open. My producer
Delia and I are here, so give us a call
of one eight hundred eighty two five nine four nine.

Speaker 2 (22:24):
Hello, folks, Thank you for hanging in through the news.
Thank you for tuning in.

Speaker 1 (22:28):
I can't thank you enough. I love doing the show.
You know that I truly love doing the show. I
can't begin to tell you how much I love doing
this show. It's really just one of the things I
look forward to after thirty years of doing the show.
It does not get tired. I do not I do

(22:49):
not ever say oh man, I can't believe I have
to do the show, I get energized. I love helping
you in the listening audience any way possible. And I
know I help you. I know because I get so
many strangers that come up to me. I actually was
somewhere the other day and literally I was at the
hot yoga studio. You can't make some of these things up.

(23:13):
And I started talking to the instructor. On my way out,
somebody came out of the dressing room saying, wait, I
know that boys.

Speaker 2 (23:22):
Are you stay bouchet or are you on radio?

Speaker 1 (23:25):
And here I thought I had a face for radio,
but no, in all seriousness, I love helping you out
any way I can. And if I can help you out,
you know, give me a call. One eight hundred eighty
two five five nine four nine. One eight hundred eighty two,
five fifty nine forty nine any questions at all. Let

(23:45):
me help you get your pointed in the right direction.
And I can't begin to thank you enough for one
hanging in through the news and too being here year
in a year in weekend week out. I just can't
begin my tell you what that means to me. Two
five five nine four nine Any questions, Give me a call,

(24:08):
so you know this week you had the SMP hitting
another high last night. You know, a great week for
the s MP, driven largely by a handful of the
mega CAAC tech names. You know, our portfolios too concentrated
in Magnificent seven. We had a conversation about this with

(24:31):
with my son Ryan, and you know, maybe maybe they are,
you know, but thank god. You know, if you if
you had Nastac in your portfolio or the SMP in
your portfolio, then you know you're you're benefiting from that.
I would like to see the rest of the market
take part of this rally and let the the the

(24:56):
mid cap and small caps be part of this rally.
But now, listen, the stock markets are up. Stocks are
up more than they're down. And in any given year
they swing from peak to tromp high to low about
fourteen percent. So you know, two of the Magnificent seven
are top two holdings. You have Apple and Amazon. I

(25:18):
talked about this with Ryan this this past week. You know,
you know, a year to date, they're they're they're they're down.
You know, listen, it doesn't worry me, absolutely not, doesn't
worry me at awe uh, They're they're great companies to

(25:40):
the world's best best companies, and you know, as they say,
with them being down and so you know, it's it's
part of the you know, being well diversified and in
our equities sleeve the Apple, Amazon together the individual stocks

(26:02):
because they are the only two individual stocks that we own.
They represent about ten percent of our equity holdings. And
near to date, Apples down about fourteen to fifteen percent.
Amazon's up five percent compared to the s and P
up nine percent. Well, you may say, why do you
keep holding it? Well, you know, I kudos to Ryan

(26:23):
when he became our chief investment officer, taking over for
me up two and a half years ago. Since then,
Apple's up about sixty nine percent. Amazon's doubled up one
hundred percent compared to the SMP up forty two percent.
So these holdings, along with our nastac waiting key drivers

(26:43):
in building wealth over time. Short term underperformance can happen
in any given year. It doesn't concern us. We are
long term investors. Sometimes we ate, you know, as I said,
Apple and Amazon are going to greg us behind just
a little bit because it's underperforming the SMP. But if

(27:04):
you look over time, they've been very good performers, and
that's what we look at, very good performers. Two five, five, nine,
four nine. Let's four month where we have Matt in
beautiful beaupil Park. Hello man, Hey.

Speaker 3 (27:22):
See, thanks for taking my call. I enjoy your show.
I usually miss it the live broadcast, but I do
always listen Saturday and Sunday to your podcast, and I
really enjoy it.

Speaker 1 (27:32):
Oh, thank you man. I appreciate that.

Speaker 3 (27:36):
I have a question in regards to earned income. I'm
I'm retired now. I took an early retirement. I was
with the airlines for thirty seven years. During the tumultuous
cod COVID year. Uh you know the the offer they
wanted to get rid of pilots my company, and you know,
they offered me a generous early retirement, so I got

(27:58):
to retire six years early. I loved my job, however,
you know what it was. It was an offer I
couldn't refuse. So I've enjoyed the last six years and
the many more to come. But I am I love
President Trump. I think he's wonderful, although I'm just a
little bit disappointed in regards to his promise as far

(28:22):
as eliminating Social Security tax, although I know there's stipulations
why he couldn't, but I think that he should have
known that prior to the so called promise. But anyway,
I'm sixty four years old right now. I turned sixty
five next year, and I'm a bit confuse what's meant

(28:43):
by earned income because I know there's a money cut
off to a certain extent on you know what I
can deduct from taxes?

Speaker 1 (28:54):
But I do.

Speaker 3 (28:56):
Unfortunately, during two thousand and five, I lost about four
fifths of my pension. The first thing Corporate America does
is take away the employee's pension. I do get something
from the PBGC, although it's not even one fifth of
what I should have gotten. So I diligently saved for
the last fifteen years until I retired into my four

(29:20):
one K. So now I do have to draw from
my four to one K each month? Is that part
of my earned income? Step in regard I am receiving
Social Security. I started taking Social Security at sixty three
and a half and I get my minor pension and

(29:41):
I also have to withdraw from my four one K.
Is all of that considered earned income?

Speaker 1 (29:52):
So are you talking from a Social Security standpoint, or
just what is earned inc well, well, in other words,
I hear that if you make like one hundred and
fifty six thousand, you can't deduct as much.

Speaker 3 (30:12):
I will again, I will turn sixty five next year.
The laws that Trump just passed doesn't help me at
all in regards to the city. If you're sixty five
years old, you get an additional six thousand dollars deduction
and but up into a certain income. And they say
up into a certain earned income. And again, I let

(30:36):
me tell you number, Like.

Speaker 1 (30:37):
We've earned income, Yes, wages, salary, tips, anything reported on
W two, commissions, bonuses, if you're working, net earnings, if
by chance you're self employed, which I know you're not,
but I'm just going to share this so the listening
audience knows union strike benefits, if by chance you're part

(30:57):
of the union, taxable long earned disability benefits. Now, what's
not considered earned income interests, dividends, capital gains, pensions, annuities,
social security benefits, on employment, compensation, alimony, rental income unless
you're in the business of being a landlord. And what

(31:18):
that means is basically eligibility for different credits like the
earned income tax or your I rate contribution limits depends
on earned income, so understanding what earned income is important.
Payroll taxes are calculated only on earned income. Unearned income

(31:39):
is taxed differently. For instance, capital gains rate is different
than ordinary rates and doesn't count towards these credits. So
hopefully you know that helps you with regards what's what's
earned income. It's a good question, and it's good that
you understand that, all right.

Speaker 3 (32:00):
Steve, I appreciate it so, and I do believe you
did answer it. I I just correct me if I'm wrong,
But my pension and social.

Speaker 1 (32:10):
Sectures count towards is not income.

Speaker 3 (32:14):
It does not, okay, it does not, Okay. So the
only thing on my behalf that is earned income is
what I withdraw each month or for the total year
from my four.

Speaker 1 (32:25):
Oh one k. Well for with regards to you know,
basically tensions and annuities, you know, not considered earned income
with regards to you know, doing your taxes and everything.
And it's a good question for your tax advisor. Hey, Matt,

(32:47):
great question, Thank you for calling it all right by now.
One eight hundred eighty two five five nine four nine
one eight hundred eighty two five fifty nine forty nine.
I don't think there is anything more confusing in life
than understanding social Security. If you claim benefits before your

(33:07):
full retirement age and you're still working, the earnings test
does apply. This year. You can earn up to twenty two,
three hundred and twenty dollars before social Security withholds one
dollar in benefits for every two dollars over the limit.
And in the year you reach your full retirement age,

(33:29):
a higher limit applies fifty nine, five hundred and twenty
dollars this year, and social Security will hold one dollar
for every three dollars over the limits. So there you
have it. It's folks, social Security may be one of
the most confusing things there is in life to understand.
But they have a good web or website. Yeah, good

(33:50):
website that that answers your questions. And you know, understanding
social Security? When should you take it? Not took it?
You know before full retirement age. You can start taking
it at age sixty two. And the pros and cons Listen.
The pros are you start taking income, you get paid

(34:14):
sooner than later. You know your your full retirement age
maybe sixty six sixty seven years old. So the longer
you wait till till your full retirement age, the more
you'll get. And then if you if you wait till
age seventy, you're going to get Jeez. I think it's

(34:34):
an eight percent boost each year in your benefits.

Speaker 2 (34:38):
After seventy Folks, I had a.

Speaker 1 (34:41):
Doctor. He didn't start taking the Social Security till he
was almost seventy four. I said, do well, like what's
wrong now? I just can't get to it.

Speaker 2 (34:51):
I said, how about you and I share the benefits.

Speaker 1 (34:54):
I'll fill out the paperwork for you.

Speaker 2 (34:56):
I said, you're leaving money on the table.

Speaker 1 (34:58):
That's you know whatever, thirty forty thousand dollars a year
that that you know social Security doesn't go back and say, hey, doc.

Speaker 2 (35:06):
You're going to take it for the last four years,
let us write your check. It's gone disappears.

Speaker 1 (35:11):
So obviously taking Social Security gives you a little boost.
Maybe you need that income to help make ends meet
during retirement. You know, ni con is if you wait
and maybe you don't take it and something happens. Listen,
you know, to this day, I'm not certify a financial planner.

(35:33):
I got nine CFTs on my payroll. So we do
a lot of planning for clients. And you know, I
always told my wife, Sue, she she always wanted to
take social security. They said, hey, maybe you know it
makes sense, you know for us to wait, I'm still working,
we don't need it and loan behold. You know, she

(35:54):
didn't take it. She wanted to just have a little
check of her own. And you know she you know,
she passed last year. And to this day, I feel bad.
I feel guilty that I that you didn't take it.
What does it matter, you know, the big scheme of things.
So there's different reasons why people take social security or not,

(36:18):
and understanding it will help. But sometimes as in you know,
my my my wife's situation, she should have taken it.
She should have had that social security. You know, as
it turned out, she never took it. And guess what
she she she worked, she earned it and never never,

(36:41):
never benefited from it. So there's pros and cons, folks,
pros and cons one eight hundred eight two, five five
nine four nine one eight hundred eighty two five fifty
nine forty nine. So earning season in full full full swing.
You got big tech and consumer discretion accounts or accounts

(37:02):
companies reporting this week they we'll see if this economy
continues to be as resilient as it is, or maybe
there's a slowdown. If there's a slowdown, maybe the Fed
will cut rates. We'll see when they come out on
Wednesday and J. Powell announces what the Open Market Committee

(37:25):
decided to do. You know, there's some say they're closer
to rape cuts, but they still want to see more data, data, data.
Their data driven folks. The Federal Reserve is data driven.
You know. I make fun of them because they missed
when intuation was nine point two percent. They missed that

(37:45):
completely because they had their head in the textbook and
all they were concerned about was data, data, data. They
never went and pumped their own gas. They didn't know
that gas was approaching five dollars a gown. They never
went shopping. They got people that do that for them,
so they never knew what the price of milk and
bread was and everything else. You know, they're heating bills.

(38:08):
They got people to pay their bills. You know, there's
got their nose stuck in a book. Most economists, that's
what they do. That's why President Truman said, don't be
a one handed economist. There is no such thing as
a one handed economists. On one hand, it's this. On
the other hand, it's that they're never wrong. But we'll
see what the Fed Reserve does on Wednesday. More than

(38:31):
likely they'll probably lead rates where they're at, but they are,
I think getting closer. We'll see. You know how how
these companies come in. You got one hundred and fifty
companies reporting earnings. You also have July you know PMI
and consumer confidence data. You know manufacturing is luggish. Why

(38:54):
you know the services and is important? You know services
remain strong. So what does this mean for industrials, materials,
cyclical companies compared to defensive sectors like utility or healthcare?
And you know the ten year treasury it's been hovering around,

(39:16):
you know the high that it's been just about four
point four percent, just buying that? Is it time to
lock in higher yields or stay short duration which means
you're buying shorter term bonds. I've been saying for a
while it wasn't whether the yield goes to four point
six or four point two. You know, getting a yield

(39:41):
over four percent is not bad. And if you want
conservative investments in your portfolio, locking in some bonds or
CDs and laddering them. You know, start out by buying
a ten year, a seven year, a five year, a
three year, or two year, a one year. That one
year matures by a new tenure. Once you start that

(40:04):
ladder and if you keep that laddering going, it takes
the guess work out of it. You don't have to
like you know, some people may say, hey, I want
to buy shorter term bonds because they're yielding more. That
sounds great, folks, but what are you going to do
when the interest rate environment changes? So, you know, laddering

(40:25):
and being smart. Now, right now, one year's yielding just
over four percent, whereas that ten years yielding almost four
point four. So, believe it or not, those longer term
bonds make sense. They absolutely make sense. You can get
almost five percent if you want to walk into a
thirty year bond. That's not bad, folks. We haven't had

(40:47):
yields this high in a long time. Now, let me
take that back. Yes, over the last year you saw
the ten year at one point just over five percent,
So yes, we have seen them this high. But what
I'm saying since since the financial collapse of two thousand
and seven through March ninth, two thousand and nine, interest

(41:09):
rates were near zero, so to think you can get
and I like building the tenure yield because that's a
good yield. Probably some of the safest money in the
world is the US Treasury and getting you know, almost
four point four percent. You know, as they said, if
you if you go to the twenty year, you're getting
four point nine to two and if you go to

(41:30):
the thirty year, you're almost getting five percent. That's not bad,
is it. I don't think so you can buy a
real short term one month and get almost the same
as a tenure. But as they said, folks b be
smart and really just ladder of portfolio. Don't don't don't,

(41:54):
don't get greedy, don't don't try to guess where things
are going. And I like the US Treasury because there's
a tax free so you're even getting a little bit more.
Nothing wrong with that. And you know, you got bitcoin
up to you know, one hundred and eighteen hundred and
nineteen thousand dollars, that's not bad. I do own some

(42:16):
bitcoin in my in my play account, my sandbox account
is we like to call it. In the Bouche, a
financial group, we have clients, and I stole that terminology.
I didn't make that up from a client of mine.
A brand new client came in and you know, we're
getting moved, ready to move the accounts, and he says, yeah,
and I had this sandbox account and I said, what

(42:37):
are you talking about? He said, what, Steve? You never
played in the sand box when you were a kid.
And I laughed, And I've been using we stole the term.
We've been using it ever since. And we do have
clients that have sandbox accounts. I have four of them.
I had one that I owned just individual stocks, one
I own just the Magnificent seven, one that I play

(42:59):
around on with sector rotating ets, and one that I
that I had bitcoin in. So I have some play
play accounts as well. It's everybody likes to play in
the in the you know, sambox. So you know bond
yows they remain elevated rotation into small caps and international markets.

(43:21):
You know, you had the rust of two thousand, as
I said, finally in the black up maybe only up
one point four percent compared to nine percent for the
S and P. But the key is it's up, it's
not down. You've got stocks companies from Europe, Japan. Our
people are putting money in that we are not. Not yet.

(43:41):
I will never say we will never put money in,
but I still like this great country of ours from
an investing standpoint. And US stocks over time, by far
have outperformed international holdings by far. You know you hear me,

(44:01):
give these these statistics often. If you own the S
and P over the last fifteen years, your average return
year in, year out is about fiftyteen percent, year in,
year out fifteen percent. If you own a NASDAC twenty percent.

(44:24):
And if you own international, as you know represented by
the MSCI EPA ETF, over the same fifteen year horizon,
your average return is seven percent. And you know if
you're there saying, yeah, but Steve, how about emerging markets?

(44:44):
What did emerging markets do well? If you look at
the ms the I Emerging Market ETF, which is a
good benchmark for emerging markets, over the last fifteen years,
your average return was three point four percent, compared to
fourteen percent for the S and P and twenty percent
for NASDAC. Just about what's wrong with that? And for

(45:06):
you nervous nellies that are out there, your average return
in bonds over that same fifteen year period is just
about two percent, just over two percent, Which is why
I tell investors all the time, don't be afraid of
stocks over time, invest in stocks. You know, over the
last fifteen years, there's a lot of reasons why you

(45:28):
didn't want to be invested in the stock market. And
guess what the stock market did just find being up
fourteen to twenty percent a year year in year out.
When you think of the headlines over the last twenty
years compared to seven for international stocks, three point four
for emerging market stocks, or just over two percent for bonds,

(45:53):
what more can I say? And yes, I know year
to date international stocks are out performing the US doc
market and that's fine, you know, so uh you know
it's it's it's really really fine. Hey, folks, you are
listening to Let's Talk Money, brought to you by Bouchet

(46:13):
Financial Group. Where don't we help our clients prioritize their
health while we manage their wealth for life. I can't
thank you enough for tuning in and being part of
the show today. Go to our website, folks, there's a
lot of good information there. Ryan and Pollo just did
a nice webinar on you know the state of the

(46:34):
economy for the second quarter. That's on our on our
front page, our home page, the market Update you two,
twenty twenty five Market Update. There's good information. Vincenzo test
the CPA, CFP e c A wrote a nice white
paper on the big beautiful breakdown. What's in it? What's

(46:55):
in that new ax bill? Folks, I can't thank you
enough Every Saturday at ten, every Sunday at eight for
tuning in. Go to our website Bouche dot com. In
the meantime, be well, stay healthy, enjoy the weekend. Next
Fridays August. Before we know it's going to be June