Let's Talk Money

August 17th, 2025.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
I'm John Malay and I'm going to be your host
for this morning show. I want to thank you for
tuning in this morning. I know you have many options
and things to do with your time and appreciate you
taking time out of your busy weekend to tune into
the show. Here we are mid August on a beautiful
Sunday morning. Hard to believe that the summer is nearing

(00:24):
its end, although we have at least two weeks left,
so I don't want to put the damper on the
end of summer yet. So hopefully you've had a chance
to do all the things you wanted to do this summer.
I know, you know I always enter this summer with
at least a mental checklist of all the activities that
I want to do, and you know usually they include

(00:45):
spending some time in Lake George, so check that one.
And also like to take a chance to go see
a concert at Spack and was able to do that
twice this summer, so that was great. I will say
two very different shows. Last minute tickets became available for

(01:06):
Rod Stewart, so I saw Rod Stewart and then with
some high school and close friends of mine, went and
saw Sticks. This week. Two very different concerts, but I
will say both performers, you know, I think nearing eighty,
but they just did phenomenal jobs. Great great performers. I
will tell you this. I I was never really a

(01:27):
Rod Stewart fan, but put on a great show. He
was a great just great, you know, interact with the
audience well and just great dynamics. It was a fun show.
And I'd just say it's you know, Spack is one
of those gems, and you know, you may go more
towards tangle Wood. Tangle Wood's also a gem in the area,

(01:48):
and and just fun summer things to do. And then
obviously here in Saratoga we've got horse racing and uh,
you know this is this is a big week here.
We are heading into really you know, the pinnacle of
the Saratoga meet with Travers coming up Saturday. So Saratoga
will be a buzz although I will tell you you know,

(02:09):
I recently moved here in the fall from Troy, and
both great cities. Love them both, but Saratoga does seem
to be action oriented all year round, but certainly great
things to do. Also did a tour of the Saratoga Battlefield,
so getting a little history in as well. And so
I hope you you know, here we are two weeks left.

(02:32):
If you have things on your checklist to do, hope
you get an opportunity to do. But I will say
I was I was sitting there lamenting, you know, the
end of summer, and my partner, Christine, looked at me
and said, John, you love the fall, and I do.
And the fall this is a great area of the
country for fall. There's so many activities and it's just

(02:52):
a you know, I love the change of seasons. But
there is something about summer, you know, And I think
that's ingrained as a kid, you know, you get summer vacation.
I will say, I work. You know now that I'm working.
I work just as hard during the summer as I
do any other time of the year. But still there's
this feeling of, you know, maybe just a little bit
more relaxed and taking an opportunity to enjoy time.

Speaker 2 (03:13):
So here we are.

Speaker 1 (03:14):
I'm not I'm not closing the door on summer yet,
but we got two weeks. Get everything you wanted to
get done, get them done. And I think today is
going to be at least a beautiful start today. And
I think the week ahead looks great too, So again
appreciate you coming and tuning in this morning. I hope
you appreciate you. Also encourage listeners, you know, call in

(03:36):
with any questions. I'm here to answer any questions you
might have. You can reach me at eight hundred talk WGY.
That's eight hundred eight two five five nine four nine.
So again, thank you for tuning in. You know, we'll
jump right into the market recap. You know, this was
you know, US stocks you know, notched another up week
this week, so that was nice to see. And you know,

(03:58):
the SMP close up a little bit, a little bit
less than a percent point nine percent for the week,
you know, but here we are, you know, end of
August and you know, up almost ten percent nine point
seven percent year to date, so you know, certainly had
some choppiness for the first first you know, i'll say
quarter plus, you know, certainly with April being having a

(04:22):
lot of volatility and probably the low, no question, the
low point of the markets. But certainly we've been out
you know, a certain a nice recovery since and near
record highs on almost every you know in deck, so
S and P. You know, good for the week. You know,
Nasdaq similarly up a little bit, you know, less than
a percent, about point eight percent, and you know, up

(04:43):
twelve percent year to date. So tech has been strong,
you know, the big winner this week. You know, the
Dow was up one point seven percent for the week,
you know, largely driven by you know, some news out
of United Healthcare and you know, Berkshire Hathaway disclosed taking
big steak in that. And you know it's interesting, you know,
United Healthcare still even with a big pop, you know,

(05:06):
down close to forty percent this year, and no question
they've still have issues to work out. But you know,
I will say the market takes it as a signal
of Berkshire Hathaway is going to take a big steak.
You know, maybe there's no question that stock has been
beaten up in a big way, and you know, maybe
it's a you know, maybe it's a value play, a

(05:27):
good opportunity, and certainly Berkshire Hathaway feels that way, and
certainly the Dow benefited from that pop in United Healthcare.
So the Dow was up one point seven percent for
the week, and your date it's up just a little
over five and a half percent. And also, you know,
a broadening of the recovery. It was nice to see
the Russell two thousand, you know, came in an increase

(05:51):
of three point one percent for the week, so, you know,
nice to see not just a narrow tech focus recovery.
Good to see the Russell tooth with a big pop
this weekend. That brought them, you know, into positive territory
year to date. So year to date up about two
point five percent. So recapping the week, you know, highlights that,

(06:13):
you know, the Dow outperformed and so did the Russell
two thousand, you know, really led by the healthcare pop.
And you know, interesting, this was a choppy week. You know,
on Tuesday we had CPI print and that was good,
you know, so highlight inflation going in the right direction.
Then Thursday we had another inflation print, the PPI, and

(06:34):
that was negative, and that shook markets in a different direction,
and you know, we spend a little bit of time
kind of pulling those apart in a little bit. But certainly,
you know, inflation is still very big factor on what's
going to happen with the economy, what the Fed is
going to do in September. So certainly the markets are

(06:58):
very reactionary, right now to inflationary prints. So you know,
in this week was a good example of that. You know,
we had you know, two major prints, the CPI on
Tuesday and again the PPI on Thursday and going in
opposite directions and saw the market market recover or react
to that for sure, so you know, and again you know,

(07:18):
certainly the positive inflation news, you know, impacted small caps.
You know, small caps want to see a lower rate environment,
and they responded well to at least the positive news
coming out. So so in recap, you know, good week.
Market's still uh, you know, doing well. And and again

(07:39):
it all you know, really all time high. So you know,
just as just a reminder for investors, you know, back
in April, early April, they were tough times, right, we're
seeing major declines and since then we've seen significant recovery.
And if you had pulled out of the market, boy,
you'd beat tough decision, right and when to get back

(08:01):
in and what would you have missed? This? You know,
huge recovery. So again, you know, a lot of time
we have conversations on investing and you know sometimes friends
they know I'm in the business and they say, well, John,
what should I invest in? And you know it's that's
an impossible question to answer without a lot more information, Right,
It's like, well, what's your objective? You know, you don't

(08:23):
just invest without an objective. Are you looking for just
a you know, retirement fund long term? Right? And if so,
you know you want to be in a well balanced,
you know, diversified portfolio. Are you saving for college education
or a wedding? Right, So you've got to set time horizon. Well,
then you know you might invest in another way and
as you get closer to that horizon, taking some risk

(08:44):
off the table, or you know, maybe you're just you know,
you got some play money and you want to, you know,
take some risk and you're okay losing most of it,
if not all of it, And and that's okay. You know,
you know, certainly you wouldn't want to do that with
the bulk of your retirement funds. Certainly we would not
advise that, right, But there's nothing wrong with you know,

(09:06):
taking a percentage of your portfolio and saying, you know,
I want to play. I want to you know, maybe
you're taking some riskier investments, maybe some single stocks which
you're you know tough to pick, but hey, you know
there is there's no question. You know. Sometimes you know,
investing in a well diversified, balanced portfolio isn't the sexiest thing.

(09:27):
You know, you're holding ETFs and you're really not making
a lot of changes. You're kind of riding that out.
And that's great, and that's a disciplined approach. But if
you have a part of your portfolio where you know
you want to take some risk and you're okay, you know,
I almost look at it as when I go to
the track, you know, and I go to the track
a few times a year. Hey, whatever I bring to

(09:48):
the track, I'm okay losing it all. So I do
know there's never a time I'm betting on horses that
I have to worry about Oh my goodness, I've spent
you know, I've lost more than and I could afford, right,
And so I think I would take the same approach.
If you want to take some of your portfolio, put
it into risk of your ventures, which could be, Hey,

(10:11):
maybe a stock that you believe in, or you've done
some research, or you read some articles and maybe you
think there's some great upside potential. And I think that's fine.
You know, it's you know, we call those sandbox accounts,
and certainly you know investing, you know the definitely you
want to be disciplined and you get rewarded for being

(10:34):
in the market for a long time and not being
reactionary and taking out. And you know, I just talked
about what happened with the markets of just in April
this year, right, and if you had pulled money out,
and it's I will just tell you this, it's it's
easy to pull it out, right, It's easy to make
that decision. The harder thing is when to put it
back in. Right. And so if you pulled money out

(10:55):
end of March early April when markets were down, you know,
you you you're still sitting with that money on the
sideline thinking when do I put it back in? Oh,
I just missed the big recovery. I'm going to wait
for it to bounce down again, and you know, maybe
it will, maybe it won't. So I just say, you know,
investing have have an objective, right, Just don't be willing

(11:17):
nilly and say I'm just gonna invest, right, what are
you investing for? There should be a purpose behind your investing.
And so again, if you've got a part that you
want to you know, take part of your portfolio you
want to take some risk on, and you want to
buy individual stocks or even crypto. And I'm not saying
you should do that, you know, but if that's something

(11:38):
you're you're you're comfortable with, and you're saying, hey, this
is a part of my portfolio that I'm I'm willing
to take risk, I'm willing to lose it all, then
that's fine. But but again, you certainly would not want
to do that with a big part of your portfolio.
And certainly if you're investing for a long term, you know,
retirement horizon, that's certainly not how we would invest that

(12:00):
you'd have a well balanced portfolio. So again, appreciate UH
listeners tuning in and encouraging to reach me at eight
hundred TALKWGY that's eight hundred eight two five five nine
four nine, you know, was talking about you know, this
week was a confusing week, right. We had you know,
CPI on Tuesday, and then PPI and so, and then

(12:24):
we've got the PCE coming out soon, and we got
Core PPI, Core, you know, CPI and so all these
different inflation measures and it gets confusing, right, And so
I want to take just a little bit of time
kind of talking through some of them and the highlights
and why they're important. And so you know, certainly we've

(12:45):
got a CPI, and everybody hears about the CPI. It's
a consumer price index and that impacts various things. And
the CPI it's consumer right, So that's really measuring what
we as consumed, what we're experiencing in terms of price
increases year over year. And again remember it is measuring

(13:07):
it in relation to change, right, So it's not saying, hey,
you know, we might see inflation, you know, come down
to zero, right, That doesn't mean prices are going down.
That just means that the year over year increase, right,
is staying flat. And so the CPI again, so that measures,
as the consumers, what we're experiencing, and they measure a

(13:28):
basket of goods and services and they look at the
change year over year. So that's consumer oriented. That is
what we're experiencing. Now, PCE, you're going to hear that,
you know, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index that is
often referred to as the FEDS Preferred inflation gauge, and

(13:52):
it's similar to the CPI, and that it measures what
we as consumers are experiencing. Right, It's just a slightly
different basket of products. It also brings in things that
not only consumers are spending money on, but things that
are being consumed on behalf of consumers, like employer paid

(14:13):
health medicare other things, and they also look at substitution products.
So it's just a it's a different measure, but again
it is the intent is to measure what we as consumers, right,
what we're experiencing in in price increases in year over year, right.
And so CPI and the PCE consumer oriented, right, And

(14:38):
so that's important, right, because that when we talk about, hey,
when when inflation hit a high of you know, nine percent, right,
that was talking about what we as consumers were feeling, right,
and we felt it. We felt it whether it was
gas prices or whether it was you know, price of

(14:59):
groceries or or other goods. You know, when back in
twenty twenty two with we hit a you know high point,
you know, a current high point of nine point one percent,
and you know certainly has come down right significantly, but still,
you know, that's measuring what we as consumers are experiencing.

(15:19):
So that's what came out on Tuesday, right, and so
PPI or the CPI came out right showed that, hey,
compared to the prior month, no real change, and you know,
year over year pricing increases. According to the CPI way
of measuring, it's about a two point seven percent increase,

(15:40):
so certainly much lower than the nine percent we are
experiencing the high of twenty twenty two, and you know,
it's getting closer than you know, the Fed has a
target of two percent, so it's still slightly above that,
but you know, it's it's trending in the right direction.
No real change a month old a month. So that

(16:01):
was positive news, and we saw the markets react, right,
And part of why the markets react is, hey, we've
got a FED meeting coming up in September, and so
we know the FED is going to be looking at
two things. They're gonna be looking at jobs and they're
gonna be looking at inflation. So I think after Tuesday's
you know, positive CPI print right basically showing hey, inflation

(16:25):
is not changing and year over year it's hey, it's yeah,
it's slightly above the FED target, but it's still you know,
two point seven not a bad number. So that was
positive news. Markets reacted positively. Then on Thursday, we had
the PPI. So let's talk about the PPI is the
Producer Price Index. So whereas the CPI in the PCE, right,

(16:50):
those are consumer related measures, the PPI is a producer
related measure. So that really looks at the the changing
prices that producers of goods and services experience. Right, So
not us the consumer yet, it's now the producers of
goods and services. And let's talk about what, you know,
why that's important. So you know, let's say I'm a

(17:12):
company and I make widgets, and I sell a widget
for one hundred dollars right now, and the price to
produce that increases from thirty dollars to forty dollars, right,
just went up, you know, ten dollars. I really, as
a producer, I have two options, right. I can in

(17:34):
combinations of those two. But I have two options. Right.
I can decide to absorb that increase and therefore reduce
my profitability, or I can make a decision to pass
some or all of that price increase onto consumers. Right.
And so so the PPI comes out on Thursday, and
it was a hot PPI. You know, it was hotter

(17:58):
than expected, rowser point nine percent month over month showed
a year over year PPI three point three percent. It
was a surge and unexpected surge, and so that doesn't
affect us yet, the consumer, but it does affect the producers.
So what are the producers going to do? And so

(18:19):
this is now the FED is saying, okay, a lot
of times that PPI is a leading indicator, right, So
if they're seeing producers getting hit by inflation so their
costs are going up, that could be and many times
is a signal that though those pricing increases are going
to get passed along to the consumer, so is the

(18:40):
consumer We're going to experience increased inflation in the future.
And so that's what markets reacted to on Thursday, right,
So so CPI print on Tuesday positive, that's what we're
really experiencing right now. But PPI, which is what the
producers of goods and services are, are experiencing unexpected increase,

(19:04):
so a jolt in the opposite direction. So now the
FED is sitting back saying, okay, you know, CPI went
the direction we wanted to see. BPI's heading in the
opposite direction. That's not good and we know, you know,
and we'll talk about that a little bit more after
the break. We know the FED is getting ready for

(19:27):
their September meeting and they're looking, you know, really hard
at two really important numbers.

Speaker 2 (19:35):
Right.

Speaker 1 (19:35):
The FED has a dual mandate, and that's the maximum
employment right and keep price stability. So they've got their
eyes on two really important things right now, and that's
inflation and unemployment. What's going on with jobs? And so
here we do is within one week we get mixed signals.

(19:57):
We get CPI positive, then we get a PPI negative reaction. Right,
and so what is the FED? The FED sitting in
this Fed and they've they have made it very clear, right,
this Fed is a data dependent fed. They're they're looking
at this data. I will tell you Jrome Powell is

(20:18):
not intimidated by President Trump. And I'm not saying positive
or negative about that. That's just the reality.

Speaker 2 (20:24):
I mean his.

Speaker 1 (20:27):
Jrome Powell's term as chair ends next May. And you
know he has shown that he is not going to
give into pressure, political pressure to make a decision our rates.
They are going to be a data dependent So here
we've got two really important measures coming out in the

(20:49):
week two days apart and two very different signals. One is, hey,
inflation's we got it. You know, it's working, We're controlling it.
And the other one is, whoa, we may have some
problems down the road. So so interesting how you know
inflation data, which we hear all the time, two very

(21:11):
different directions in just a short period of time. And
now you know, the Fed will have their PCE numbers.
They'll have that at the end of August, so August
twenty ninth, those will be released. And so as the
FED heads into their STEPTEP meeting, we'll take that all
into consideration. And all this comes down to what, you know,

(21:34):
what is what is the Fed going to do with
all this information in terms of their next interest rate decision.
So so we saw that choppiness in the markets this week,
but overall the markets finished in a very positive direction.
And I will say, you know, we've talked about the
breadth of the market recovery, and so what was nice

(21:55):
to see this week was small caps you know, really
you know, participating in the recovery, which they really have.
A small cap has been has been lagging uh this
year for sure, and so it's good to see that
that pop and is I talked about you know, the
Russell two thousand, which is a measure is good measures
small caps. You know, good to see that recovery. And

(22:20):
so you know, as an investor, as you're well divers sized,
if you've got some of your portfolio diverse bied to
small caps, you know, it was good to see a
nice little pop this week there. Now still you know,
year to date, they certainly year to date lagging behind

(22:42):
the S and P and certainly NASA year to date
Russell two thousand, two and a half percent versus uh,
you know, Nasdaq at twelve percent, S and P at
ten percent. But nonetheless, good to see some recovery this week.
So we are going to be coming up to a
commercial break, and you know, appreciate your tuning into this show,

(23:03):
and I can't believe we're halfway through the show already.
I want to thank you for tuning in with me
this morning. Hope you will rejoin us after the break
and encourage if you have any questions, you can reach
out to me at eight hundred talk WGY. That's eight
hundred eight two five five nine four nine. You know,
when we come back from the break, you know we'll

(23:24):
talk a little bit more about the markets, certainly talk
about the upcoming FED meeting and whatever other topics you
want to talk about. You are listening to Let's Talk Money,
brought to you by Bouchet Financial Group, where we help
our clients prioritize their health while we manage their wealth
for life. Again, thank you for tuning with me this morning.
Hope you will rejoin me through the break. Thank you well,

(23:49):
thank you for staying with us through that short commercial break.
I'm John Malay and I'm your host for this morning show.
Appreciate you taking time out of your weekend to tune
in and listen to the show. I encourage listeners you
can reach out to me at eight hundred Talk WGY.
That's eight hundred eight two five five ninety four nine.

(24:10):
We have a caller Warner from Saratoga. Warner. Appreciate you
listening this morning and what can I do for you?

Speaker 2 (24:17):
Yes, I'm interested in international stocks and what's going on.
I mean, I'm a Vanguard investor and for years they've
they've directed us, you know, be balanced with international stocks,
and it didn't pay off for many years, and now
it appears to be paying off. I mean it's trading
at somewhere around seventy one seventy dollars. It was at

(24:40):
fifty to sixty for the longest period of time. And
with all the tariff talk, I like to know why
international stocks are still popping, like Doc and ets, shall
we say.

Speaker 1 (24:53):
Yep, yep, Warner. Appreciate Appreciate you listening, Appreciate you asking
that question. You know, in international, you know it's been
you know, compared to US equities have been tough. You know,
we've actually been underweight international for at least fifteen years
now and and really out of international for for seven years.
And I will say, you know, we continue to be

(25:15):
out of international, and I know our our investment committee,
which is headed our chief investment officer, Ryan Bouchet, has
been looking hard at international for the last year. So
you know, there's certainly been some good sector pops on
like on the defense spending side, There's no question there's
been some uh, some great returns in UH international and

(25:40):
you know, certainly the tariff how that ultimately plays out,
you know, certainly can have some impacted well. So as
a firm right now, we are still more bullish on
where we think the growth in the in the in
the markets are going to be is in you know,
US companies, But I will say we're not ignoring you know,

(26:01):
international equities, and and certainly, you know, you may make
you can make a strong case that for a you know,
a well diversified you know, there's nothing wrong with putting
a certain percentage into international. We've just made the decision
right now that we're more bullish. We think there's more
potential for growth instability coming out of you know, the

(26:22):
US equities. But certainly there's no question there's been some
sector plays, uh, in geography, geographic plays in the international
markets that have played well this year. It's definitely this
year has been a good year again, especially in you know,
defense spending. So certainly, you know some some have been

(26:42):
some great opportunities there.

Speaker 2 (26:46):
But the tariffs themselves shouldn't that have a negative impact
on those ets and equities from foreign countries. So that's
why I'm somewhat confused as as to why it's still
contin used to run up, not just on defense, it's
on banking. It's an international banking. It's not a whole
salou of different sectors.

Speaker 1 (27:08):
Right right, And so I mean there's been you know,
get there's been a lot of things at play right
that that have been impacting international equities. There's no question,
you know, particularly for the first you know, five months
of the year, the faltering, you know, the slow in
the US equities, you know, certainly created you know a

(27:29):
shift of dollars where where individuals were putting their money, right,
and so you know, the tariff play how that And
there's no question you know, the Europe in particular has
you know increased uh you know, they're spending in a
number of areas, defense being won and certainly we've seen
the pop in in the defense industry, you know, but

(27:51):
also as as companies are reacting right to to how
the tariffs are going to play out, right, that can
also impact different you know, you know, different countries in
different ways, right. Can we can see a shift of
you know, manufacturing, you know, it's a different you know

(28:14):
out of China to other areas that certainly can have
some positive impact on you know, equities in that company.
So certainly seeing a lot of international places and I
think you know what we're seeing right is there's no
question the tariff conversation is impacting you know, how companies
are manufacturing where they're manufacturing and that can then you know,

(28:35):
create some opportunities where you know, some countries are benefiting
more than others. Uh, for sure. And I will say
as our and I will say our our investment committee
is uh, you know, looking hard at international. And again
it's not that we're as a firm, not that we're
against international. We've just seen where we've seen the best

(28:57):
opportunities that we felt in the best ability has been
you know, over the long haul, because again we're we're
managing portfolios for the long haul. Over the long haul.
It's you know, we feel it's been in the US equation,
still continue to feel. That doesn't mean there's not opportunities.
And yeah, it doesn't mean that there's not good opportunities.
And especially if you're willing to jump in and jump

(29:19):
out right, there could be definitely from some cyclical value
and some opportunities there.

Speaker 2 (29:26):
Okay, great, thank you very much.

Speaker 1 (29:29):
Yeah, thank you for the question, and appreciate appreciate you
calling in. You know, and this is one where I
will say, you know, I have you know, individuals point out, hey,
look look what you know European defense contractors have done
this year, and you know you're out of you know,
you're out of international right now, and we are and

(29:50):
we haven't always been, but we are right now in
our portfolios. And I will say, you know, as a
long term investor, and that's what we are. We're managing
portfolios for the long term. Is that our our belief,
our thesis still is is that you know, US equities
provide the best growth potential in stability. But appreciate that question, Warner,

(30:15):
And certainly in a well diversified portfolio, you could argue
a certain percentage of your portfolio allocated to international. You know,
it is not it's not a crazy decision to do.
You know, it could be prudent. So again, appreciate the
call wording anyone else you can reach me at eight

(30:37):
hundred talk w g Y. That's eight hundred eight two
five five nine four nine. So we're talking a lot
about the FED, and it feels like you know, we
have for the last three years. And you know, and
certainly you know FED Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Trump

(31:00):
are locking horns, no question. President Trump has made it
very clear what he thinks about drome and no question
that is not going to change. And so Jerome Powell
has another basically a year a little less than a
year left as FED chair And you know next week

(31:22):
there is every year they have an annual Jackson Hole
Economic Symposium, and likely this is going to well likely
this is going to be Jerome Powell's last year speaking
at this, and he'll be giving a speak speech next Friday,
So it'll be interesting to see what he has to say. Now, again,

(31:42):
they have a FED meeting coming up in September, mid September,
and so I don't think he'll tip his hand that
that would not be consistent with how Chairman Powell has communicated,
but I do think, well, there'll be some nuggets that
will come out of there, and so and also obviously

(32:02):
his legacy has been under attack, and uh, you know
there's no question, uh not everything that the FED has done,
as I have agreed with, right, but I will say
when you look at his track record and you look
at what's happened, I mean, you know, there's no denying
going through COVID and really the largest economic contraction that

(32:27):
we experienced since since World War Two, that was a
major shock. I mean, so he's not been you know,
nice smooth time at the wheel, had some major events
and no question. When I think what what most people
fault and I'm in this can't fall power for is
being slow to react to inflation increasing. And there's you

(32:50):
know the famous it's it's transitory. Well it wasn't, you know,
with all the stimulus stimulus going on, the inflation was
there and it dug in deep and it's been hard
to stamp. And so no question, I think most would
say late to the party with starting to raise rates,
and now the debate is are they late to start

(33:13):
reducing Now? I will say, it does feel like we're
heading into this soft landing, right, I mean, inflation is
moving in the right direction. Yeah, we did get a
weak jobs report. The last jobs report was weak, no question,
but it was you know, still unemployment in that four

(33:33):
point two percent rate did tick up a little bit,
but you know, not job market has not fallen apart.
Now we'll have another jobs report coming up soon, and
so you know, his legacy'll it'll be interesting. I mean,
there's no question he is under attack right now, and
I don't I would not want that position. It is,

(33:56):
you know, you just you could not win in that role.
I will say. Right now, they've been very data and
I'm a data person. I like making data driven decisions.
Sometimes you can't right, sometimes you just have to go
by gut instinct. But certainly this FED is very, very
data dependent, and the one thing they've been consistent with

(34:16):
that is we're going to look at the data. So
it'll be interesting. I'm looking forward to his speech just
to hear what he has to say, and I think
there will be some framing of legacy. There should be,
you know, this is again is his last opportunity to speak. Generally,
it's not a lengthy speech at this event, so it'll
be interesting just to go through here that. So tune in.

(34:40):
There'll be some press for sure, and and everybody parsing
every word that comes out of his mouth to determine,
you know, what's going to happen in September. So again,
appreciate you tuning into the show. We're going to take
a quick commercial break, so please stay tuned and we'll
be right back with Let's Talk Money on a WGY.

(35:02):
Thank you for staying with me through that quick commercial break, Ashley,
thank you for giving me that break. Needed a little
drink of water on this Sunday morning as I'm looking
out the window right now. It is pure blue skies
and sunshine. I know our last caller was Sarah Tooker.
Hopefully Warner's gonna get a chance to get to the track.
I know I'm going to try to get there this week,

(35:23):
as Travers week always is just an exciting time and
this week this year, you know, we had the Belma
and then there was like a mini meat and then
the start. So it's it's been an odd feel to
the season, but certainly looking forward to try to get
out there this week and tap into some of that energy.
So again, appreciate you for tuning into the show. I

(35:45):
encourage you to reach out if you have any questions,
you can reach me at eight hundred talk WGY. That's
eight hundred eight two five five nine four nine. So
talk a lot about the FED today and just you know,
so here we have upcoming September meeting, so September sixteenth
and seventeenth, and they're going to be making, you know,

(36:08):
another important interest rate decision. And you know, so as
we look at the data, a very soft jobs report, right,
and that's one of their mandates is about maximum employment.
That a soft jobs report certainly tips the hand towards
a rate reduction CPI print that came out as I

(36:31):
talked about earlier positive showing inflation, you know, continuing to
move in the direction we like, So another you know,
positive check for a rate decrease. And then we had
the PPI report come out, which showed a spike in
producer inflation, so that is more towards hey, do we

(36:54):
do a lower cut or do we hold? And then
we've got some important data coming up. You know, We've
got the next jobs report will come out in early September,
so that'll be out before the Fed's meeting in on
the September sixteenth and seventeenth, and then they'll have their
preferred inflation reading, So in August twenty ninth is when

(37:17):
we'll have the pc report. So we're going to get
another inflation read, which is really the the Fed's preferred
inflation gauge, and we're going to get another jobs report,
and so you know, I would say, you know, if
you if you look at polls right now, the expectation
is for a quarter point decline in the rates. There

(37:41):
have been talk of a larger decline with some of
the recent inflation data. We'll have to see about that.
That certainly, you know, makes I think people feel generally,
makes that less likely. But overall, you know, unless we
see some shockers in the jobs and PCE, I think

(38:02):
the expectations are we're going to see a quarter point
declined and you know what does that mean? Right? You know,
so rates come down a little bit, what does that mean?
And it really depends on you know, how your life
is made up in terms of what kind of loans
you have, you know, where your money is. So one
of the things we do though, right is the Fed
reduces the Fed funds rate rate, right, and that's really

(38:25):
what we're talking about, the Fed funds rate is as
they reduce that, you know, over you know, banks will
start to reduce savings rates. Not that mayn't happen the
very next day, but the trend will come down. You
may recall when rates were near zero, savings rates at
banks were near zero, you know, so direct correlation there.

(38:47):
So from an investment point of view, you know, you
will see if you've got money still in cash, and
we do, you know, I do see some new new prospects.
Is that boards some people still sitting in a lot
of cash and sitting in short term deposits. I will say,
there's still opportunities to lock in, whether it's treasuries or communities,

(39:11):
lock in some good rates for a longer period of time,
you know, sitting in you know, savings accounts, you might
be getting it still a decent yield, but there's no
question we're closer to rates going down and up, and
those savings rates will go down. You know, one of
the questions we always get is, well, how's this going
to affect my mortgage? You know, you know, I'm I'm
holding off buying a house because I want to see

(39:33):
this affect you know, mortgage rates. And you know, the
reality is is it doesn't have as big an impact
on mortgage rates. It's mortgage rates are really driven you know,
by the ten year Treasury, and the ten year is
really driven by inflation expectations, growth expectations, right really drives
what's going to happen with a ten year. So, but

(39:54):
there are some loans that are tied really to prime,
and generally, you know, as the as the Fed funds
rate changes, primes will change immediately. So you know, if
you have helocks, credit cards, those types of rates, you're
going to see some change right away. So expectation right
now is, you know, rates to go down maybe maybe

(40:16):
a quarter percent. I will say a lot can change
between now and September sixteenth, based on two very important
data points, the jobs report and the PCE inflation report.
So we will, like always we will in mid September,
we'll know, and there'll be a lot of dialogue and

(40:39):
I'm sure with the Jackson Hole event this week and
Chairman Polma speaking on Friday, there'll be a lot of
parsing to this word. So we will see coming you know,
what exactly comes out of that. You know, I want
to encourage listeners if you have any questions, We're coming,
you know, near the end of the show, but still
have time for a question. If you want to reach

(40:59):
out to you can get me at eight hundred talk WGY.
That's eight hundred eight two five five nine four nine.
You know, one of the things I want to chat about. So,
in my role in the firm, I'm chief operating Officer,
chief financial officer. I'm also a CPA. I work directly
with clients and you know, one of the things that

(41:21):
we are unfortunately having more and more conversations with clients
on is cybersecurity. And fraud and it is just amazing
how much it is picked up. And I will just say,
you know, whether you know, you may think you're the
smartest person in the world that could never fall victim.
I will tell you, having worked directly with clients who

(41:43):
have fallen victim to fraud, you could be the most
intelligent person in the world. You know, these fraudsters are
out there with different schemes and can trick you, and
you know you need to protect your money. And I
will say also, if you've got aging parents or even kids,
you know, have these commonsations right, because it really is
about increasing awareness and what happens, especially with the elderly,

(42:08):
is does happen? Fraud happens, and then there's embarrassment and
not always wanting to talk about it openly, thinking that
you know, it may be a signal that there you
know that people might construe you're not able to take
care of yourself, maybe you shouldn't be alone. And you
know all this, you know can't be viewed as you know,
attacks on your freedom and your independence. And uh, but

(42:31):
I will say we have to get past that because
it is real and one of the biggest defenses.

Speaker 2 (42:38):
UH.

Speaker 1 (42:39):
Is is us as humans. You know, we have all
this software and all these tools, but a lot of
times it's just as simple how we react to something,
how we react to a sense of urgency that is created.
And I will tell you these fraudsters do it in
very creative ways. And so one, you know, almost everybody

(42:59):
has a self phone, and even your kids have cell
phones now at very young ages. And if you have
age parents, aging parents that you're taking care of, I'm
sure they have a cell phone. That cell phone becomes
one of the biggest avenues for fraudsters and it to
get to us, and not only through phone calls, yes
that happens, but also through text messages with links. And

(43:22):
you know, a lot of times fraudsters can be impersonating
your financial institution, whether that's your bank, whether that's your
custodian like Charles Schwab or anyone else like that, and
tricking you into disclosing your your credentials, right, and then
they can gain access to your account and other personal information.

(43:44):
So I would just say, you know, this is not
a scare. It is just be aware, right, and so
and have conversations. Again, if you have people in your
life who you think could benefit just have conversation, understand
you know what kind of calls they're getting, what kind
of text they're getting, Because this is it is preventable.
And I will say, when it happens to you, and

(44:07):
I've worked again, worked at first hand with clients, it's
scary and then it questions everything you're I mean, so
much of our life is sometimes digitally all tied together,
so it's like, how do we know they haven't gotten
into something else? And so it's just a scary thing.
But again let's raise awareness. I would definitely again with
your phone, just observe some common If you're getting texts

(44:32):
from somebody you don't know, don't respond at all, just
block it, delete it, don't click on links. If your
your financial institution, your bank, Charles Schwab, Fidelity is not
going to reach out to you by text to have
you fill in some information. And if you're concerned that
there might be legit, then go on your computer, go
to Schwab's real website, go to Fidelity's website. Go to

(44:56):
whatever bank you with, go to their website. Go to
a known number. Don't respond to something that's been fed
with you. That's where they're they're they're tricking you to
go into their channel. You think that it's you know,
a legitimate website, a legitimate link, and you're being duped
into providing false information. So just be be weary and

(45:17):
and again have conversations, right, and so your cell phone
understand that that has become the huge gateway. And so
using technology, fraustters can hit millions of phone numbers randomly,
right with a scam and they're just waiting for someone
to respond. And once you and that's why with those texts,
you know, we all get those texts that say hello,

(45:38):
where are you? You know, and you do like, I
don't know this number, Do not respond to it. Just
just delete it, right because once you respond, you've now
gone from you know, one in a million to to
now one in a thousand who they've responded to. So
just you know, be careful there. And the other thing
I would just say is sign up for an identity

(45:58):
theft service, right, It's just that way you get identified
if someone's opened up an account in your name, if
there's inquiries. It's just those are important services. You know,
there's a you can Google, there's a there's a vast
number of them, LifeLock, Identity Force, identity Guards is a
huge list. They're very inexpensive, but they're very beneficial. So

(46:21):
you know, we are coming to the end of the show.
I want to thank you for tuning in. Sorry for
that last segment there, but it is It is a reality,
and I just want you to be protect yourself in
every way you can, so you know, I want to
thank you for tuning in with us today. I hope
you enjoyed the show. I know I did. Hope you
enjoy the rest of your weekend and the amazing week ahead.

(46:42):
Be sure to tune in next week on Saturday at
ten and Sunday at eight am for some other great shows.
Check out our website Bouche dot com. We got great
content there, both on investment, finance, tax topics. Great information.
So you have been listening to Let's Talk Money, brought
to you by Bouchet Financial Group, where we help our

(47:03):
clients prioritize their health while we manage their wealth for life. Again,
thank you for tuning in with me this morning. Hope
you enjoyed the show and enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Thank you.